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China has ample room to introduce pro-consumption policies in the second half of the year, as consumer prices maintained a moderate overall increase in July, experts said.
专家表示,由于7月居民消费价格总体保持温和上涨,中国在下半年推出促消费政策仍有充足空间。
The country's consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, rose 0.5 percent year-on-year last month, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.9 percent year-on-year.
国家统计局发布的数据显示,作为衡量通胀主要指标的居民消费价格指数(CPI)上月同比上涨0.5%。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.9%。
There is considerable room for pro-consumption policies in the second half of the year, and price factors in particular will not be a major constraint on the central bank's potential interest rate cuts, said Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Orient Golden Credit Rating International.
东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司首席宏观分析师王青表示,下半年促消费政策仍有较大空间,尤其是物价因素不会对央行可能的降息形成明显制约。
Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, said he expects pro-consumption policies to be stepped up in the second half of the year, with summer vacations and the National Day holiday boosting prices in tourism, accommodation and catering services.
中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬预计,下半年促消费政策将加大力度,暑假和国庆假期将带动旅游、住宿和餐饮服务价格上涨。
Data show that industrial consumer goods excluding energy rose 1.5 percent year-on-year in July, slowing by 0.2 percentage points from a month earlier, contributing about 0.37 percentage points to the CPI growth.
数据显示,7月扣除能源的工业消费品价格同比上涨1.5%,涨幅较上月回落0.2个百分点,对CPI涨幅贡献约0.37个百分点。
Service prices increased 0.7 percent year-on-year, down by 0.1 percentage points from June, contributing about 0.36 percentage points to the CPI growth. Food prices fell 1.5 percent year-on-year, narrowing the decline by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, dragging the CPI down by about 0.25 percentage points.
服务价格同比上涨0.7%,涨幅较6月回落0.1个百分点,对CPI涨幅贡献约0.36个百分点。食品价格同比下降1.5%,降幅较上月收窄0.1个百分点,拖累CPI下降约0.25个百分点。
On a month-on-month basis, the CPI edged down 0.1 percent in July, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
环比来看,7月CPI小幅下降0.1%,降幅较上月收窄0.2个百分点。
NBS attributed the monthly decline to international market price fluctuations, which drove down domestic gasoline prices by 10.7 percent month-on-month, with the decline widening by 5.8 percentage points from June, pulling the CPI down by about 0.35 percentage points.
国家统计局将环比下降归因于国际市场价格波动,导致国内汽油价格环比下降10.7%,降幅较6月扩大5.8个百分点,拉低CPI约0.35个百分点。
Food prices remained flat month-on-month, 0.6 percentage points below the seasonal average. Service prices, which were flat in June, turned to a 0.4 percent monthly increase, pushing up the CPI by about 0.21 percentage points.
食品价格环比持平,较季节性平均水平低0.6个百分点。服务价格由6月的持平转为环比上涨0.4%,推升CPI约0.21个百分点。
The Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee recently held a meeting on economic work. At the meeting, it was stressed that macro policies should be strengthened and more effective, disbursement of fiscal funds and bonds proceeds should be accelerated, and solid progress should be made in promoting large-scale equipment renewals and trade-ins of consumer goods.
中共中央政治局近日召开经济工作会议。会议强调,宏观政策要更加有力有效,加快财政资金和债券资金拨付使用进度,扎实推进大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新。
The meeting also underscored the need to effectively expand domestic demand, increase the supply of quality goods and services in response to the consumption needs of different groups, and tap the potential of services consumption.
会议还强调,要有效扩大国内需求,针对不同群体消费需求增加优质商品和服务供给,挖掘服务消费潜力。
Local authorities have stepped up efforts to optimize trade-in policies. The southwestern city of Chongqing, for instance, has expanded its subsidy categories for home appliances and smart home products, covering nearly all aspects of daily life. Hunan province in Central China added 10 new categories to its trade-in program, including smart service robots, smart door locks, smart air purifiers and smart toilets.
各地政府也在加大优化以旧换新政策的力度。例如,西南城市重庆已扩大家电和智能家居产品的补贴范围,几乎覆盖日常生活的方方面面。中部省份湖南在消费品以旧换新计划中新增了10个品类,包括智能服务机器人、智能门锁、智能空气净化器和智能马桶。
NBS data also show that China's producer price index, which measures costs for goods at the factory gate, went up 3.5 percent year-on-year in July.
国家统计局数据还显示,衡量工业品出厂价格的工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)7月同比上涨3.5%。
Wen said that China's price trend is expected to improve further as domestic demand potential continues to be released and a lower comparison base comes into play.
温彬表示,随着国内需求潜力持续释放以及低基数效应显现,中国物价走势有望进一步改善。
"Although the transmission of PPI recovery to CPI will entail a lag, the equipment renewal and trade-in policies will gradually lift prices of durable consumer goods such as home appliances and automobiles," Wen added.
他补充说:“尽管PPI回升向CPI传导存在一定滞后,但设备更新和以旧换新政策将逐步推高家电和汽车等耐用消费品的价格。”
core CPI /kɔːr siː piː aɪ/核心CPI
constraint /kənˈstreɪnt/制约因素
interest rate cuts /ˈɪntrəst reɪt kʌts/降息
industrial consumer goods /ɪnˈdʌstriəl kənˈsjuːmə ɡʊdz/工业消费品
contributing /kənˈtrɪbjuːtɪŋ/贡献(拉动)
dragging down /ˈdræɡɪŋ daʊn/拖累
month-on-month /mʌnθ ɒn mʌnθ/环比
edge down /edʒ daʊn/小幅下降
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