英语新闻丨一季度基建投资强势反弹

A sharp acceleration in infrastructure spending has emerged as a key pillar of China's investment stabilization drive, offsetting a persistent decline in the property sector and helping overall investment return to positive growth in the first quarter, officials and economists said.

随着基础设施建设支出显著提速，我国稳投资格局初显成效。在房地产开发投资持续探底的背景下，基建领域的强劲增长有效对冲了行业下行压力，带动一季度整体固定资产投资重回正增长区间。

The rebound came after authorities vowed late last year to halt the investment downturn, following a 3.8 percent contraction in fixed-asset investment in 2025.

此番回暖发生在此前投资增速持续承压之后。数据显示，2025年全年固定资产投资曾收缩3.8%，有关部门于去年底明确释放了遏制投资下滑的政策信号。

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, fixed-asset investment reached 10.27 trillion yuan ($1.51 trillion) in the first quarter, up 1.7 percent year-on-year. Beneath the headline figure, however, lies a sharp divergence. Infrastructure investment surged 8.9 percent, while property development investment plunged 11.2 percent.

国家统计局最新公布的数据显示，今年一季度，全国固定资产投资达10.27万亿元，同比增长1.7%。尽管总量增长温和，内部结构分化却极为显著：基础设施投资同比大增8.9%，而房地产开发投资则同比下降11.2%。

Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International, said that infrastructure investment — the area where the government has the most direct leverage — has ramped up significantly at the start of the year.

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，基建投资作为政府宏观调控最直接有效的抓手，在开年即展现出强劲的拉升势头。

"The pace of growth in the first quarter exceeded what the market had anticipated," Wang said.

“一季度的实际增速已超出此前市场普遍预期。”王青表示。

China has not disclosed the scale of its infrastructure investment in recent years. However, a report by China Galaxy Securities suggests that the proportion of infrastructure investment within total fixed-asset investment has been rising, estimating it at about 45.3 percent as of end-2023.

近年来官方虽未单独披露基建投资的绝对规模，但据中国银河证券研报测算，基建投资在固投总额中的占比呈逐年抬升趋势，截至2023年底，该比例约为45.3%。

Last year, the sector faced significant headwinds. Due to a combination of fiscal constraints and a high base of comparison, infrastructure investment saw a rare year-on-year decline of 2.2 percent for the full year, according to the bureau.

回顾2024年，该领域曾面临不小的增长阻力。受制于财政紧平衡与高基数效应的叠加影响，国家统计局数据显示，全年基础设施投资罕见录得2.2%的同比降幅。

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, said the robust first-quarter growth accelerated by 8.3 percentage points from the full-year 2025 level and contributed 2.7 percentage points to overall investment growth.

粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒分析称，一季度基建投资增速较2025年全年大幅回升8.3个百分点，对整体投资增长的贡献率高达2.7个百分点。

"Infrastructure spending countered the drag from the prolonged property downturn and served as the key factor behind the turnaround from negative growth last year," Luo said.

“基建支出的放量，有效对冲了房地产长周期调整带来的拖累，是推动固投由负转正的决定性力量。”罗志恒指出。

As 2026 is the inaugural year of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30),"Local governments have strong incentives to create economic activities in the first year to set the foundation for the next five years of development."

2026年作为第十五个五年规划的开局之年，这一加速增长具有更强的导向意义。分析认为，地方政府在五年规划首年普遍存在“抢先抓早”的能动性，意在通过重大项目落地为后续发展筑牢根基。

The NBS said that in the first quarter, investment in projects with planned total investment of 100 million yuan or more rose 4.5 percent year-on-year, indicating that large-scale construction is accelerating.

国家统计局数据同时显示，一季度计划总投资亿元及以上大项目投资同比增长4.5%，表明大型工程项目正处于加速建设周期。

Funding has followed the projects. Luo said fiscal resources were deployed early and aggressively in the first quarter.

资金的保障为项目推进提供了坚实支撑。罗志恒表示，一季度财政资源体现出了明显的“靠前发力”特征。

Public bond issuance data show that in the first quarter, local governments issued about 3.1 trillion yuan in bonds, an increase of about 9.3 percent from the same period last year. Newly issued special bonds directly tied to infrastructure project construction reached about 1.2 trillion yuan, up about 25 percent year-on-year.

债券发行数据印证了这一判断。一季度，各地累计发行地方政府债券约3.1万亿元，较去年同期增长约9.3%。其中，直接用于项目建设的专项债券规模约1.2万亿元，同比增幅高达约25%。

The shift is not just about spending more — it is about spending differently, according to analysts.

在分析人士看来，此轮发力不仅体现在投入总量的增加，更体现在投向结构的优化。

While traditional rail, road and airport projects remain important, new infrastructure areas including computing centers, 5G and 6G networks, electric vehicle charging piles, and low-altitude flight infrastructure are becoming the new growth drivers, said Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank.

中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，在传统“铁公基”项目保持稳定投入的同时，算力枢纽、新一代移动通信网络、新能源充电设施及低空经济配套等新基建领域，正加速成长为驱动投资增长的新引擎。

"The government is using infrastructure investment not just to stabilize growth in the short term, but to shape China's transition to a digital, green and innovation-driven economy for the future," Wen said.

“当前的基础设施投资已超越单纯的短期逆周期调节功能，更多承载着推动经济向数字化、绿色化、创新驱动转型的长远战略意图。”温彬称。

Entering the second quarter, with the peak of project launches coming to an end and special bond issuances normalizing, Luo cautioned that infrastructure growth may slow marginally.

展望二季度，随着项目集中开工潮逐步退去，加之专项债发行节奏趋于常态化，罗志恒提醒，基建投资增速或有边际放缓的可能。

"Local governments face a dual squeeze from debt servicing and falling land income. Whether infrastructure can continue to play its role as a ballast for investment will depend on policy support from the central level."

“现阶段地方政府面临化债支出与土地出让金下滑的双重压力。未来基建能否持续发挥‘压舱石’作用，将在很大程度上取决于中央层面转移支付及增量政策的接续支持力度。”

property sector /ˈprɒpəti ˈsektə(r)/房地产行业  

halt the investment downturn /hɔːlt ðə ɪnˈvestmənt ˈdaʊntɜːn/遏制投资下滑  

divergence /daɪˈvɜːdʒəns/分化；背离  

plunge /plʌndʒ/暴跌；骤降  

turnaround /ˈtɜːnəraʊnd/扭转；好转  

inaugural year /ɪˈnɔːɡjərəl jɪə(r)/开局之年  

public bond /ˈpʌblɪk bɒnd/政府债券；公债  

ballast /ˈbæləst/压舱石；稳定器