Valspar Championship 2026 Final Bets, One & Done | Insights From The Course, Practice Like Tiger | Final Word

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Our large is just your, like, our large is like your small.

I was trying to try on that TGL gear when I was there.

None of the sizes make every time I go to the States,

none of the sizes make any sense.

Like, yeah, this is a medium.

I'm like, this is a moomoo.

Like, is it M for moomoo?

Is what this might as well be?

Need like an extra, extra kid's small.

It's outrageous.

Has the fiber story at TGL merchandise shop come?

Has that?

That is not surface yet.

Okay.

Would you, would you like to tell it from your vantage point?

And I can tell it from my vantage point if you'd like to start.

Um, I mean, I almost feel like he should be here,

but, um, I guess we'll give him a drive-by.

At Mayo Experience.

This is the final word on the Valve Smart Championship.

I'm Pat Mayo, Keith Stewart.

From Read the Line is on the line with me as he is every single week.

If you want, Keith's free newsletter hit the description.

You can get it down there as you can get my free NCAA bracket.

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Just because it's free to join.

Doesn't mean you don't get bucks for a winning.

You get 1,250 bucks if you win.

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Completely free to join.

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You just have to make your picks through the app.

So just remember that when you click on the link that you need to be on your phone

in order to do it.

Maybe even an iPad.

Keith, you a big tournament guy.

You know, I do like the action that it creates.

Um, I think it's a good template for, um, what a lot of playoffs should be.

You know, one and done.

Uh, this, uh, best of seven stuff.

Sometimes it carries on a little bit too long for my liking.

I, uh, I like surviving advance.

So yes, I am a March Madness guy.

I like it.

You don't want to see the tour championship for the FedEx copy.

A best of seven head to head.

I certainly do not.

I, I don't need.

Yeah, no, not at all.

Um, I, I love the, I hurt some very interesting ideas last week down at the players.

About how the playoffs could work out.

And the idea of eliminating guys after every round for like the final two events.

I mean, that would be pretty cool.

Isn't that what they do anyway?

Well, no, I, I mean, by round pass.

Oh, so you know, or like, you know, there's a cut after 36 holes.

At the BMW or what we think is the BMW and then, you know, after another round.

There's another cut.

There's another cut.

And then as you go into, uh, if it's the tour championship, wherever that may be located.

Um, you're cutting guys by day again.

And, um, you know, you, you finally get down to the final day.

And maybe there's eight guys left in the pool from the playoffs.

And then they all play head to head on Sunday.

And, you know, winner take all type of thing.

You know, my, my, my friend Ben Everle on the show last year.

Actually proposed a match play system that I didn't hate, which is always very nice.

That you, everyone gets a ranking in the FedEx cup as they go in.

But it's not necessarily double elimination, but the higher seeds get a chance to stick around.

Should they lose early that it's sort of the best of both worlds?

You could have these Cinderella knockout style runs.

But you also wouldn't necessarily lose Scotty Sheffler in the first round right away.

He would have a chance to play himself back in.

I forget exactly how it went.

But when he explained it, it made sense.

Well, first of all, Benny Betz is Australian.

I'm not sure that anything he said made sense.

But, um, you know, there's a number of things you can do.

Like, there's such a thing as like stroke play matches, which means you play all 18 holes.

And then your final score is the winning score or the winning total.

So if you're worried about TV or you worry about the best players continually, you know,

getting through a majority of the time, you could do it that way.

And then you don't get a six and five and then you're like,

OK, how does Jim Nance fill the last hour?

You get it all the way to the end and now there could be blowouts.

But more often than not, I think you're going to get a finish like you would

that was pretty electric on Sunday down there at TPC Sawgrass.

Well, you were there on the grounds at TPC Sawgrass,

but you were also there Wednesday for the commissioners state of the union,

the address to the media and all of the world.

You were in that press conference.

Where were your biggest takeaways from it?

Well, I think, well, first of all,

this guy knows what he's doing.

He knows how to command attention and he knows how to deliver a message.

I mean, he was on point with no teleprompter for about 50 minutes.

And I think he would have stood there for as long as people

would have kept coming up with questions.

I honestly believe the guy is super impressive.

That being put aside, my biggest takeaway is that the one thing we,

like you and I maybe gripe about the most is that we want larger fields

with more variety to them that have cuts.

And he basically came out and said that and is, you know,

whatever, six points of light that, you know, that was,

that was one of the first details.

That was one of the only details that seemed to come through.

You know, we were just talking about the tour championship

and it might switch to match play.

And you know, he threw a couple of those kind of like bonus seeds out there.

And we'll see if they, if they will grow.

But for the most part, 120 players a week,

the best fields, you know, with a cut at the best venues.

I mean, what more could we ask for?

That's basically it. What, what did you make of what he wanted to do

with the bigger markets?

I know that we've talked about this a little,

but now that it's been out of his mouth,

how do you envision the second part of the PGA schedule going?

Well, that gets complicated.

And I'm not just talking about from a TV and a sponsorship point of view.

But everyone assumes that like when they roll into New York

that someplace in New York just wants to host them, you know,

in the best part of their season, you know, everyone says,

oh, let's go to Pebble Beach in August.

Well, like Pebble Beach is charging like what?

$2,000 around and how much per night per player all week in their book.

Like, how much revenue are they giving up?

So I think that, you know, best laid plans sound good at the start.

But are we going to get the type of venues that you and I crave?

You know, like, are we going to get Shinnecock?

Like we get for the US open? Probably not.

Are we going to get a Liberty National?

Sure.

Is that the type of venue that we want in New York City?

Because if that's the level that you're that you're hoping for,

then I think that we're going to get stuff like that.

But I mean, they're right.

You know, at the end of the day, we need to be in larger markets.

And if they're competing for all of these basically TV dollars,

then they need situations like they have last week at the players

where it's a packed house on those last three holes.

And there's a ton of excitement and it's a great venue.

And they're going to get that amount of these massive populations

of Boston, New York, Chicago, Atlanta, you know,

all of these different spots.

They could definitely fill those, you know, those grounds

and give you the sort of a sight excitement that I think they're looking for.

And in order to do what the, I think really the long term goal is,

is to try to elevate this tour in a way that it starts to feel more like stadiums

and certainly football stadiums.

And I think they're going down the right path.

I mean, this guy, there's no doubt when it comes to media,

he knows what he's doing and he knows how to build something.

So I think for the most part, we didn't get a ton of answers last Wednesday.

But I think we got enough to trust this guy and give him a pretty medium length leash.

Okay. So you're on board.

So we can get golf but louder is what you're saying.

Oh, I like golf but louder.

For sure, you know, and I know you're trying to, you know,

tongue and cheek, you're trying to like make it sort of a live thing or whatever.

But the, there's so many ways that live has failed in that mission.

Golf but louder is what you saw, you know, this past Sunday.

A really good field with a lot to play for, with a ton of people engaged,

whether they were on property or they were watching on TV.

And I think if they want to go down that path, you know,

I mean, you and I, and by the time we got to API were like,

this is like the third week out of four where we've done the same field

with a little bit of a different venue,

but the same skills needed and the same guys.

And how do we get around Scotty and all those conversations?

If they can come up with a legitimate way to relegate and promote people

and it kind of adds some variety to these fields,

put them at some really, really iconic venues around some of these cities

and give us 120 with a cut.

I mean, I think you're definitely on to something when it comes to the,

like the modern advancement of tournament golf.

I mean, a lot of that really mirrors what we see in the majors

and the better tournaments like Mirafield Village or Riviera.

And, you know, I think that that, I don't think that that's broke.

And, you know, I think if we continue to do that

and the money's there to do it, then I think we should.

I'm trying to think about the best way to structure a schedule like this.

I think having back-to-back signature events is a terrible idea

because the whole point would be to have the lesser-tor type events

where you can a lot fewer FedEx cut points, whatever it is.

And have people play well in those tournaments

to play themselves into the next signature event

because then you would see the up and down.

Like, keep your A on swing tan in five,

but make other paths for guys to go up and down

and then that becomes a real talking point

amongst people who really follow golf.

And as Feinberg pointed out on Monday is that,

you know, his dad doesn't know what the difference between a signature event

and a regular event is.

He just knows the golf is on.

Well, the field size and the cut

and some of those details were pretty specific

where we got into a very large gray areas

when they started to talk about the secondary tour

and how that fits in with the corn fairy

and are they the same thing?

And when those events are going to happen,

there were little like breadcrumbs that were dropped.

He's like, well, you know, then these other events

would start in the summertime and go into the fall.

Well, that wouldn't coincide with what you're saying there,

which is that there is the opportunity to kind of bounce up and down

in between these elevated super events

that are, or this elevated tour that they're going to create.

So more of that will come out in time.

What I always hear behind the scenes

is that they're really trying to figure out that process

of how people bump up and they come down

and that they ensure that their stars stay in the super tour.

And I know people don't want to hear that,

but the fact of the matter is is in this competition for TV dollars,

that's a big part of the equation

and that they're trying to work out.

And don't get me wrong.

Jacob Bridgman could be a new superstar.

Obviously came young.

People really rallied behind him.

But switching things around too much.

And I don't need Vicki Fowler to stay around forever.

That's not what I mean.

But the largest part of this conversation is figuring out

how to work the secondary tour

and make it work alongside and coincide with the super tour.

And you and I have talked about that week after week

and I've been a big proponent of having both of them run at the same time.

And then that would then satisfy your need that we could pop people

back and forth between the two.

Maybe not on a week to week basis,

but on a month to month basis seems like it's realistic.

Or through like different quarters of the season.

Like you can kind of move people back and forth.

That's definitely the biggest area that they're working on,

which leads me to believe that all of that would not be in place before 2028.

So what you would expect is what we're seeing this year as a part of next year,

with maybe larger fields of the signature events.

I think you're pretty spot on with that.

I think that we're going to see.

You're going to see more.

I think they would adopt as many new venues in these larger markets as they could.

And then, you know, maybe move sponsorships around,

but for the most part,

I think you're going to see a very similar tour to what we're seeing now.

With just larger fields with cuts and bigger purses in more of the events.

Yes.

What would be the reason to label it something that's not the PGA tour for the

what you're saying is either this.

Whatever the quadruple label between corn fairy and PGA would be.

Why not just call it the PGA tour?

Like that brand is so strong.

I don't think it's hurting your brand if you just run what would be,

I mean, they're doing it right now like the cognizant this week is a bit different

because a lot of the guys are trying to get some extra masters reps in.

And we're seeing a very stacked field at the Valspar,

but the American Express, the Houston open, Valero, Texas open,

whatever it might be on the schedule, just keep those as PGA tour events

and give them 300 FedEx Cup points.

I think that probably just goes back to your fineberg point from earlier.

It's just a limit confusion.

And I'm not sure what anything's going to be named.

I would think that the super tour would stay the PGA tour.

I mean, that's the brand that they're trying to promote the most.

And then the secondary tour.

Do they go to corn fairy for more money because it becomes a much more elevated product

than it has been for the last couple of years?

I don't know.

Again, how that falls together, Pat seems to be the biggest point of discussion

that they're having right now.

I mean, we want there to be a ton of back and forth between those two tours.

We want the secondary tour to be elevated in a way that it continues to give us golf every week.

And it gives us these like hero stories and these amazing guys that make,

they break their way through like a Michael Brennan or something like that in the fall that comes out of nowhere

and was playing in Latin American tour or the PGA tour Americas leading up to that

and then went to the corn fairy.

We want all of those things and they're going to work on it from the top down.

So I feel like that secondary tour certainly is going to take the longest to put together.

That's kind of the vibe I got in the room.

But, you know, I talked to a number of, you know, longstanding media folks

who felt like we weren't going to get anything on Wednesday.

And they felt like we got a lot of information in it.

You know, I don't disagree with that.

I feel like if next year the biggest events have a cut, they have 120 players

and they continue to increase the venues with which they are hosted, you know,

where they are hosted, I think it's a big step in the right direction.

And I think it will also give roll-ups some time to work on the big picture behind the scenes

and make sure that that secondary tour, like it'll give people more buy-in

to trust him what he's doing if the top really falls into place.

Then we're going to see the secondary tour we could take more chances

and I think we'll get more of what we want out of that situation.

Was there any discussion about the broadcast rights, the digital rights,

did he dive much into anything like that?

Or is that just kind of off the table for the moment?

They really didn't dive much into that.

There's probably two or three media members in the room, like a Josh Carpenter

or David Rumsy or James Colby and or somebody like that

that would be qualified to ask those types of questions

and know what answer really had an impact.

For the most part, people there are looking for the golf stories

and how it's all going to fit in with the majors

and how the tour is going to interact with Liv.

I still think his reactions to any Liv questions.

People keep asking them and they're just not getting the memo.

This guy's never going to talk about Liv.

I'm surprised.

He said the word Liv like three times and I was kind of counting

as if it almost it was a game or like you and I on CalShi

is he going to say Liv two and a half times in this press conference

in an hour?

They've just completely disregarded that whole thing.

But when you ask a question like, hey, you were very apt to bring Brooks back.

If Bryson wanted to come back, he's basically saying, yeah, he'll be here in a week

is what he's saying.

We don't have a problem with any of that.

They've shown that that's the case.

From that perspective, from a fans perspective,

they might actually be diving into some of this.

From a coverage perspective, you're dealing with a lot of antiquated thinking

and I think it's going to take a while for that,

for a while for that to transition path.

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Let's move to outside of Tampa Bay.

The Illisbrook Resort Copperhead.

One of my favorite tournaments in the year.

One of the most difficult tournaments in the year.

We got a good field here.

Tell us about the Copperhead course.

Well, Pat, I've been fortunate enough to play this course a couple of times.

Nice little resort down there out there by Clearwater Beach.

Not too far from the coast.

When you are watching your wind, make sure that you're paying attention to.

Not just your apps, but maybe looking at something like a wind website or whatever.

Because it can get breezy out there for what you might see on paper.

Overall, you got to keep the golf ball in play.

It's funny how this golf course gets overshadowed where obviously the stadium course is a big deal.

And Bay Hill is very difficult and PGA national.

Whether it's been tamed or not.

This is definitely a fantastic golf course that always creates a champion that can really strike their irons and can roll the rock.

And I also think about the fact that guys that play well here seem to play well here in spurts.

You know, you go back to Paul Casey back to back years.

And the Sam Burns back to back years.

We go to so many venues where we think like, can the guy repeat?

Can the guy repeat?

And then, you know, you come to this venue and you say to yourself, well, Jesus, it's happened so many times recently.

I think this guy, I think Victor Hoblin could, you know, could repeat.

Or I think Jacob Bridgeman, you know, coming in third last year.

He could make another good run because he's playing even better this year.

So for me, the golf course, the way it sets, you, it's a difficult like.

We always call Pebble Beach or YLA or Harbortown, positional golf courses.

But then they don't test these mid irons like they do at Valspar.

I really think that if you win the Valspar, especially against this field this week,

you have golfed your ball and you have rolled it on the putting greens very effectively.

And you should feel like that's a pretty darn good win.

We've seen a lot of class act winners at this tournament over the years.

You get your few outliers, but even going back to Hoblin last year.

Then you have that two years stretch of Malnaughty and Taylor Moore.

I'm still not entirely sure how Peter Malnaughty won that over Cam Young.

That year in Keith Mitchell and everyone who was in the mix.

But Taylor Moore just went and took that turn.

That was Adam Shanks' tournament to win.

And then he had to hit it backhanded from behind a tree on the 72nd hole.

And Spieth was there.

He just, he left his pot like one rotation short to force that playoff and more made everything on the final day.

But the field was weaker than last year.

We saw Victor Thomas, both of the top.

You mentioned Bridgeman.

He's at Sune, Zander tried to make a run.

And that was the first year I can really remember the big, big names.

Gravitating towards this field.

Fleetwood even tried to make a little bit of a run last year on Sunday as well.

But even before that, you mentioned the two back-to-back Burns years.

Then the back-to-back Casey years.

Then he had Hadwood, Schwarzel, Spieth, Reed lost in that playoff.

Sean O'Hare was in that playoff as well.

That when I start assessing the board, it's funny that you mentioned that star power.

And like we don't need to have Ricky in every tournament.

For this tournament in particular, I don't mind looking down the board.

At guys who are, for rightly or wrongly, have been stars in the past.

They tend to do well here.

Absolutely.

And it goes back to what I was just saying earlier.

At the risk of being redundant.

And this golf course has a very, very specific skill set.

And if you can pop this week at what needs to get done.

And you can handle those five par threes.

And, you know, you can, you've proven that you can score around this place.

I mean, one of the unknowns about this place that people just don't see on Google Maps.

Is the amount of terrain changes that are here.

So it makes it very different than let's say a contest like PGA National PGA Nationals flat.

You know, Bay Hill.

There is a little bit of roll to the land there in Orlando.

But there's tons of topography here down there in Tampa.

And, you know, these guys see a lot of uneven lies.

You know, with on approach.

And the best approach players can flight and control spin.

Whether the ball is below their feet above their feet uphill side hill downhill.

And I think that that's why so many guys that are really good with their iron game in this range from.

You know, let's say 175 to 225 tend to excel here.

And then if you, if you can compliment that with a good putter.

Then, then I think you really have a recipe or a blueprint for where you want to target guys.

And to be on the PGA tour.

There's a lot of guys out there that are very good from 180 yards with an iron.

And a lot of them get to the tour based upon the strength of their putter.

So you think about a guy like that maybe just got in the field like a Matt Koocher or Peter Mollinati.

All of a sudden, these guys, they.

They can compete here because they know that they have the skill set in the baseline and the floor with which to do it.

I think that makes a lot of sense.

And the five par threes.

I think really throw everyone for a wrench and exactly what you're saying.

You need that long iron.

You don't need to be sticking it from 230 out.

But you need to be able to give yourself a somewhat makeable putt.

Something 35 feet in and maybe you get lucky and make sure you don't three putt.

But you need to hit those grains of regulation and at least two putt your way out.

And the winners generally make a few of those throughout the course of the week.

And that ends up being the difference.

But four of these par threes are over 200 yards.

They're very tough.

Yeah, you've got win there.

Like I mentioned near the coast.

You've also got water and play on a couple of those par threes.

And you know, they'll keep building up the snake pit or whatever they call it.

But I mean, those par threes.

How many times around the copperhead course?

Do you get an even lie?

I just mentioned this, right?

Are you going to have a level lie or an even lie on approach?

Well, I know you're going to get five of them.

And I'll give you a quick tiger story, right?

So when tiger was going into an event.

He would always be practicing the irons for the par threes.

Because he knew what those approach shots were.

And he knew he would have a perfect lie.

So just if you're out there and you play tournament golf,

or you're getting ready for your own member member or something like that,

or you have a home golf course.

Like how many times do you, like let's say the par threes at your home course,

like two of them are seven iron and two of them are five iron.

Like when you go to the range and you practice, how many times do you practice those clubs?

People never do that.

I mean, I've stood on a range my whole life.

And people never practice the clubs where they know they're actually going to get the approach shots.

They would say, well, Keith, I don't know what I'm going to get on all the other holes.

And I say, I don't disagree.

But when you look at a guy who's one of the greatest players of all time,

and he would go into an event,

he would totally lock in on those clubs.

And if you're going into this event,

the best players from an approach perspective,

a guy like a Jacob Bridgeman right now,

he is definitely your Austin Smotherman.

These guys that are really, really striking their irons very well.

They are going to go into the bag and they're going to go,

I am going to be, I'm going to practice this club to the point where I can never miss it.

Because I know I'm going to need it, you know, three of the five times.

But those particular shots really make an impact on your overall score.

I mean, that's what, 20 of the 72 holes.

And if you can play those holes under par,

and they've already said they're difficult,

and we know they're difficult,

then you're going to have a huge edge on the field in a field that's already very tightly packed

from a skill set perspective.

Do you have any one you can text at the course this week?

I do.

I've spoken to the tour,

the tour, a gronomy officials there.

Can you, can you ask someone to ask Austin Smotherman if he expects to stay

if his wife goes into labor?

I don't, I don't think the agronomy guys are going to go in the media center

and ask him that.

Could I, I mean, sure, yeah.

When I haven't looked, when is Smotherman's press conference?

I don't know if he even has a press conference, obviously.

You'd have to harass him on the range.

Okay, so, sure, I could send a text.

We'll try.

If I get it, then I'll text you or I'll tweet it out,

and I'll, you know, I'll obviously tag you on the tweet.

You know what I can do?

I can, if you do that, that would be, I'd be very grateful for that.

I can also include it in the Wednesday newsletter.

If you're not subbed to the Mayo Media free newsletter,

highly expect you to do that right now.

If you want some info,

that's where the entire cheat sheets will be,

all my final bets, first round leader,

live information like that, WD information,

wind information, draft kings information,

it's all going to be in the Mayo Media sub stack,

so Mayo Media on sub stack,

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Well, you're down there as well.

You might as well figure that out.

I was terrible at the players last week, by the way.

Just really off base, worst week of the year.

Always, always nice too,

when it's the biggest event that you cover,

most people watch it, than any other one,

every take you have is bad.

I mean, I think probably the worst take of the week

might have been the TGL injures people take.

I mean, the final four, the final three guys,

we're all TGL guys.

Well, they were all on the New York Golf Club.

Well, I mean, now we're starting to figure it out.

It's either you get yourself injured on TGL

and you can't play,

or you're at the top of the leaderboard.

There's no in between.

Well, I tell you what,

I had it up and down week.

You know, I had Xander,

and Victor and Sap at the top,

and they just had their moments,

which you do around that place.

The eject button is very, very close to the steering wheel.

And when we saw a number of people hit it,

you know, hey,

I've known Cam Young for a very, very long time.

I've noticed by the David,

the local golf professional here in the New York City Metro area,

his mom, Barbara, she's a stick.

She could play just a wonderful family,

but I've coached a bunch of kids that went against Cam.

You know, I just think that that's a tremendous story

for the PGA tour.

I think it's a great test for the media

because he is such an introvert for them to get anything out of him.

And when he does say something,

it's usually very meaningful.

It's like one of those TikToks you get where,

you know, they're like showing you,

you know, like a sunset or something,

and then they, you know,

they challenge you with a quote or something along those lines.

You know, the magic you're looking for

is in the duties you don't do on a daily basis,

like something like that.

You know, like,

Cam really gives you some stuff.

You just got to pry it out of them.

And, you know, hey,

I mean, for that guy to step up on the final hole

and hit that, hit that T ball,

and then, you know,

go up there and make par what he needed to,

that was pretty darn impressive.

And, you know, people,

people are making a big deal about,

you know, Matt Fitzpatrick

and his relationship with Cam and everything,

like, can't play golf with his brother,

Wake Forest, Alex.

Like, that's the tie in there.

You know, like,

these guys are like,

they're buddies,

not just through, you know,

New York golf club or whatever.

So, it was kind of neat,

you know,

the PGA tour crowds.

And this whole rider cup thing

and Europe versus USA and everything.

Oh, man,

it just won't go away,

which is kind of an interesting anecdote to the whole thing.

But overall,

I would have liked to see Zander play a little better on Saturday.

You know, if he shoots even par,

then he's definitely in the mix on Sunday.

But very nice signs

from a number of people at the top of the board.

And that place is

second to one or two

on the PGA tour when it comes down

to the final nine on a Sunday afternoon

in whatever you want to call

the style of championship that is.

Whether it's a major or not,

the thing is electric.

It doesn't need to be,

I think it proved again this year.

It just doesn't need to be a major.

It can be its own standalone thing

that people really like.

I totally agree.

I mean, I think that the major thing

is kind of a useless conversation.

Those four allied associations

aren't going to add a fifth.

And I don't think that you need to.

I mean, at the end of the day,

I think it's the Super Bowl.

It's the one outlier event

that the PGA tour owns

that they should lean into

a hundred X over.

And the fans love it.

They have the same venue.

The media likes it.

We were talking about this

before we started recording the show.

It's a really, really good experience,

whether you're a player,

a patron,

or a press person.

And if you could cover those three people,

then you can have an ending,

like you did,

down to the final shot,

down to the final swing.

I mean,

you've done pretty good.

You think about the last couple of years,

the Wyndham putt,

you've had Tam this year.

I mean,

we've had some really,

really good finishes.

What are you looking at

for Copperhead this week?

With the names at the top of the board,

stick out to you.

That is, there's a lot of guys

that just perform well at Sawgrass.

When I was going through my research

and just going back

and watching some of the early round coverage

from the past few years,

a lot of PGA national guys were there for two rounds.

And then I don't really know what happened to them.

They kind of fell off the face of the earth

while the good guys started making their runs.

But I'm very comfortable

with kind of fading the top few guys.

Weirdly enough,

you mentioned the name

that no one considers the,

he's not the betting favorite,

but just playing the best,

doing what you need skill-wise

at this course is Jacob Bridgman.

He's been really good.

Well, you know,

after a little bit of Thursday morning trauma

that I had to fight through,

obviously Colin made it 20 minutes into the tournament

and it was over.

I'm thinking a lot about the volatility in this event

and over the years,

how so many times like a bunch of the favorites

missed the cut

because it's a difficult golf course.

And they're coming off

a very emotionally

and physically draining week

at TPC Sawgrass,

whether they played well there or not.

Sawgrass gets in your head

and it can start to mess with your game.

So I think that Bridgman represents

at the top of the board,

the type of player

that we know can get into contention

over the weekend.

And then he has the skill set

to possibly pull through.

Pass that,

you know,

that's like my number one question at the top.

Is someone like Xander,

who, you know,

what he gained,

what was it like,

10 strokes on approach last year?

Was his best approach gain

of the season?

Was it Valspar?

And, you know,

is Fitz going to be able to continue this run?

One of those guys

are two of those guys

at the top of the list

that are under 30 to one.

They're not going to make the cut.

They're not going to be here

over the weekend.

And I think you want to really try

to dodge those bullets.

And I don't have a problem

with investing more

in the middle tier

with what you have

from an outright selection

or from a prop selection

and a bankroll.

If you truly think

that those guys

are going to make the cut

into the weekend

because this place has proven

that there's more tailor moors

run across that finish line

than JT's.

There are a lot

of those guys

getting kneecapped at the end.

I just vividly remember

having co-crack

and him just not being able

to chip on the 72nd hole.

And that was the end

of Jason co-crack

handing Paul Casey.

There were in both

of Casey's wins

because Reed had a chance

to beat him on the 72nd hole

and didn't get his put

all the way up the hill

and rolled back to his feet.

And then again,

Paul Casey standing there.

Hey, I won.

This is great.

Yeah, the second one

he survived that tiger run.

I don't like tiger was

ever that close to win,

but he survived that tiger run

on Sunday, which,

you know,

we'll give you pause

as you're as you're

running around trying to

hold on with the big cats

coming.

That was also the first.

I think the very first

tournament or Corey Conner's

became a thing.

I mean, I had never

even heard of him

and him being me being

Canadian, him being Canadian.

Usually you hear

about these guys,

but he just showed up

on the scene.

And there he was.

It was him,

Snetaker, Casey, Tiger

and someone else in

the final groups.

You know, Corey Conner's

just playing some

very nice golf right now

from a ball striking

perspective.

You know, he's the type of

guy.

Well, I mean,

it's a hard golf course,

man.

So was this.

What's that?

So was this?

Different level of

pressure for sure.

Sure, but different

level of difficulty.

This course is more

difficult than Zara's.

By the numbers.

That's an interesting

point.

I don't know.

That's an interesting

point.

Like when I think about

what's the average cut line

here over the years?

I like plus three

or something.

So over the last five

years, the average cut

line is six tenths

over par.

And the average cut line

was 1.2 at

sawgrass.

But look at the winning

scores.

The winning scores are all

like we had the two outlier

burns years,

but everything else is

like minus 10 minus 12.

That kind of level.

Yeah.

No, I,

if you want to say

the average score around,

I get that.

I get that.

Difficulty over the

course of 72 holes.

I would think,

I think when I think of this

course and how it's set up

because it's a less than

driver course,

you're going to have to pick

your spots in a lot of cases.

The long par

threes, the thicker rough

that's it's very difficult

to get it up and down.

From a lot of these

different holes in green

complexes that I think

U.S.

open when I think of this

course.

It's a similar skill set,

but you have to be a little

bit, you know,

better with the driver

you have to use it more

often in the U.S.

Open.

But it's a very similar

skill set.

You know, I tell you what,

the rough was no joke last

week.

You, there have been a lot

of years where you can't

use total driving or

driving statistic coming out

of sawgrass and then go

into, you know,

copperhead and say,

okay, well,

there's some correlation

here, but you could

definitely do that this

year.

Guys that were hitting the

fairway had had huge

advantage at sawgrass.

I mean, there was some

cabbage there by Sunday

afternoon.

It was, it was almost

kind of ridiculous.

I'm going to talk about

like U.S. Open

conditions.

You're just like, man,

how much, especially in,

you know, any of those areas

where we had talked about

this a little bit,

where you see like those

chocolate drop

mounds or those little,

like little hillside

mounding and kind of

swells and stuff.

The bottom of those

swells, they can't get

mowers down there to get

flat.

The grass down there was

like, you know,

it was like up to your

like mid ankle.

It was ridiculous.

And guys were chopping

out, hitting like full

sand wedge is like

100 feet.

So I think you can use

driving out of

sawgrass, which you haven't

been able to do a bunch of

times in the last, let's

say, 10 years.

I think that you can use

that as a very relevant

statistic, if that's

something that you're

featuring going into

Valspar.

Tom.

Good news for my

main man, Lucas Glover.

Drove the ball really well

last week.

Didn't do anything

else well, but drove it

really well.

I mean, Lucas Glover is a

good fit other than the

putter for a place like

Valspar.

But we just test your

ball striking.

But we've seen him pop

so many times with the

putter once a year, twice

a year.

I mean, he had FedEx

cup wins as of two years

ago that you can look

into that.

I would trust his, like,

I'm just going full ball

striking here and being

able to chip, I think

really goes a long way.

Like last year, Vick

wins.

Vick can't chip.

But every time he left

one of those stupid chips

long, he just made the

putt every time.

Yeah, Vick gained seven

strokes last week around

the green.

Now, he pitched in a

couple of times in those

helpful, whatever.

But I wouldn't, I wouldn't

think that though he's

going to maintain that

level of acumen in his

short game.

Can Victor repeat this

week?

Do you think?

Oh, listen, everyone

repeats here, apparently.

So yeah, I could see

Victor played pretty well

last week.

Now, he was getting by on

smoking mirrors with

chipping and putting for the

first two rounds.

And then everything kind

of left him when that

caught back up to him on

Sunday.

If the ball striking

wasn't as precise as you

would have wanted from Vick

to actually go make a run.

But, of course, he can

go back to back here and

win it again.

I would just be looking

like the one good thing

with Vick is that generally

he is pretty good on the

greens.

He's just bad around the

greens that if you're

going to take one of these

ultimate ball

strikers, because I was

given a big look to David

Ford and Johnny Kiefer

and these guys.

But they don't shit.

A Corey Conner is

another one.

They just don't chip

and to putt.

Like you need one of the

two in order to get by this

week and they have none

that those guys are

they're crossoffs for me

for betting top tens.

Draft Kings is a little

bit different because

birdies are at such a

premium this week that

maybe you can sneak by

even if they make the cut

they'll outperform their

position.

But I'm thinking about

betting. If you were just

double red in around the

green and putting your

just off the list.

I tell you what guys

are going to make putts

there because the golf

course is in really good

shape.

They had everyone knows

Florida had a pretty

brutal January, but

February it bounced back

very well.

They're overseas took

they're in a good spot.

I mean, the golf course

is going to really, really

show nicely this week.

And whatever they want

to do from an

agronomic point of view

when it comes to green

speed and the firmness

and the texture and

everything and a little

bit of breeze and the

temperatures being what

in the mid seventies

all week.

They're going to get

a little bit of colder

at night.

I mean, this place is

going to it's going to be

ripping, which is going

to be absolutely fantastic

theater to watch.

And you know, I'm with

you there.

You'd love a combination

of both around the green

skill and some putting.

But you definitely need to

check one of those boxes

in a major way.

So, who were you betting

this week?

At the top of the board,

I have to make a decision,

I think, between Jacob

and Vic.

But those are the two at the

top that I like the most.

In the middle, I,

there's an interesting play.

And we go back to

cognizant.

And I was falling in love

with one of the twins,

Nikolai.

And there's a lot of things

that Nikolai does.

And he continues to do.

And play pretty strongly

that feature very well here.

He's obviously a very good

putter.

He is one of the top,

like two or three par

three players.

So, he's a good,

he's a good middle line player.

And a lot of par three is

very difficult when it comes

to a golf course.

And he tends to score on those.

So, I think that that gives him

a nice edge and he's sitting

there right around 40.

So, if you find a nice

number on him,

I think there's a decent

amount of value there.

And I think that that's

somebody that a lot of people

are talking about when it

comes to them.

And maybe I've missed that.

But I just haven't heard

a lot of that chatter.

Well, it's probably

because I'm betting him

for the umpteenth

consecutive week that I am

on Nikolai Hoi Guard again.

And you are correct.

For the year, he is

third.

He's fifth in strokes gained

on par three's,

the leaders in these categories.

Taylor Moore is number one.

Blades Brown,

Justin Thomas,

Austin Smotherman,

Nikolai,

Jagger, Jeremy Paul.

Jeremy Paul is $6,200.

It's such a small sample.

You can't put

anything into it.

Although he did make the

cut here last year,

because I was watching

Brown four.

Actually, I was like,

hey, there's Jeremy.

Who's Jay Paul?

Oh, yeah, one of the

Paul's from Germany.

What's he doing here?

Then all of a sudden,

he starts showing up in

the stats.

It's a lot of guys that have

played well at this course.

Moore is a winner.

Justin Thomas basically

finishes inside the top 10

every single year he comes

here.

So I don't think it's a

crazy place to look.

What do you make a

Blades Brown?

Do you continue to bet on

his upside?

Or has he been

overvalued in the market

for a long time?

Well, the results are just

pure talent.

What he needs to learn to do

is how to play golf.

And how to play tournament

golf at this level.

But once he does,

there's no doubt that this

kid can, can absolutely

contend.

I mean, he's doing it.

Like I said, I just

just on like raw ball

striking at this point.

And when you are around

him.

I was around him at

cognizant.

And we all listen to him

a lot at AMX.

He definitely speaks

very well.

He's doing it.

He's doing it.

And heolin blocks.

And he definitely speaks

beyond his years.

I mean, the kids 18

years old.

And he's competing

routinely in these

events.

And he shows

really no signs of.

Being in the deep

water, you know,

like that he can

slim .

So, I think

that as he learns to

refine the rawness

of his skill,

I think you're going to

get a pretty nice

consistent tour player

out of him.

And he turned pro and he was about 17 or 18 years old and how long that took.

And then now look at where Okshay's been the last two or three years.

The guy wins once a year.

I mean, that's hard to do.

How many guys win once a year that we're not talking about that aren't in the top five in the world?

You know, Okshay's doing that.

And now he's in this position where his ball striking and, you know,

kind of the way that he's learned to play golf and score in different ways

and how to use the different parts of his game.

That I mean, that's a big part of this is like learning which part of your game.

It's one thing to be well-rounded, but which parts really firing that week?

And then how do you lean on that and kind of mask the others in order to get

in the top five come Sunday and then, you know, try to put the pedal down and close?

And he'll learn to do that over time.

18 is really, really young.

Found it interesting with Okshay's driver at Bay Hill versus what we saw last week at the players.

He was one of the 10 best drivers in the field at the players

after losing so many strokes at Bay Hill and doing it all with magic beans.

Why aren't we talking more about Okshay this week?

Oh, just he already just won.

So, eh, that kind of thing.

I think it's that kind of thing.

I think it's also the way he won would give a lot of our peers, our colleagues, the,

you know, gaining 16 strokes around the green and with the putter is not necessarily

a sustainable model.

Sure, but, but that was the only time like Phoenix, he gained Pebble Beach, he gained

Riv, he gained players, he gained a ton off the tee.

And he's gained on approach every one of these weeks.

He's gained putting every one of these weeks.

It's just that outlier from the API, which he happened to win that sticks in everyone's head.

But is that just because it was a super long course?

And he just hits that big left-handed cut and that's how it ended up for him that maybe at

other courses that it's not going to be that big of a deal?

I mean, I think all of that, I think all of those are good observations, but I think

the initial reaction is just that is this the type of guy that's going to go out and start

winning like three tournaments a year?

And I mean, he very well could be, you know, the guy has superstar caliber when it comes to his

game. But I think a lot of times people are sometimes the recency bias works for you and sometimes

it works against you.

You know, when Scotty it works for you, when it's Rory, it works for you.

I think in the mind of like an auction or a Jacob Bridgeman, I think sometimes it works against

you. And I think that's kind of what's going on there this week. You know, this is a situation

again. You talk about Matt Fitzpatrick at the top. We talked about this two weeks ago when we were at

TGL. I said, I did not like Matt's approach game going into Bay Hill. It was going to be firm.

He was going to be hitting longer irons in and he was not going to be able to hold greens.

And that was going to put a lot of pressure on other parts of his game.

And that's what showed up at Bay Hill.

Last week we talked about Fitz again. And I said, Hey, you know, Fitz isn't a much better place.

All the other parts were firing. Of course, he needed to make some short putts.

But you know, we had talked about that. But he had made it his whole career. I remember you made

that comment and you were correct. But like he was now hitting nine irons and wedges and it saw

grass. And now he was holding greens. And now he was all the sudden, you know, contending and

maybe could have won that golf tournament. Now we're going back to more of a Bay Hill approach

situation. So I would tread lightly there. And I think a lot of like the reason I'm going on

on this tangent is that when you start to talk about oxay and these little micro fits and how

they go with the golf course, um, that tells a tale. And when you're trying to pick at the top

and you're truly splitting hairs, those things can make the biggest difference in the world.

So between Bridgeman and Havon, you like Nikolai. Is there anyone else down the board?

Do you like besides Zack Blair? I actually know Zack Blair. I also like right around Nikolai.

I like the gala. I think this is a good course fit for the gala. The gala tends to show up on

positional courses. And one of the reasons is that when you pull the driver out of his hands,

he's allowed to score. Uh, I've always said, told the stories. He and Norman are always the guy

shutting down the range and not for bad reasons. They're just workaholics when it comes to their game.

Um, the gala is obviously back to being healthy. Uh, he's calling a lot of people forget and he

got overlooked because it was during Kobe, but he was college player of the year at Pepperdine

back in 2020. You need to get to play in the NCAA championship. So, you know, you kind of

didn't get all the fanfare you got around Ludwig and Thoroughby Ornson and those guys and PGA

tore you, but the gala is a tremendous, tremendous player and an unbelievably creative score.

He might be one guy that checks both boxes when it comes to putting and chipping this week.

And he's really, really good with his long clubs playing positional golf courses and putting just

just put the ball in play. You don't have to pull the driver out and go and go nuts. So right there,

I feel like there's a to some between the gala and Nikolai that I'm pretty, I'm pretty excited

about this week and a lot of times coming into this event, I feel a lot like, you know, I'm trying

to let the more cow of thing go, but like I come into this like thinking, I can remember there was

like a year where I was like, oh, I'm all over San Burns and one and done everything and then

like the guy was like, didn't make the cut. I'm like, how did that happen? Like I just one twice

here. You know, so, you know, that my apprehension here is a little bit more excitement this year

because I think there's some really good fits in this field and and the gala would be another one

further down the board in like the 80 range. I'm going to go with my Jersey roots and then has

nothing to do with the local talent winning the sawgrass, winning at sawgrass, but I think that

if if Max Grazerman was going to win on a certain style of golf course, this would be his style of

golf course. How come? Well, he drives the ball really, really well. So he's the type of guy that

could actually like with some like take advantage of his driver in certain spots here, not to be

not to be as positional. He's been great at like a very like a very similar style mid iron,

with rough, keep the ball in play, sedge field, you know, great sedge field comp there,

and the guy is an incredible putter and like he just looked through that list. I mean Peter

Mollon, he's made a career with the putter. Sam Burns putter, you know, like the trend

bridgeman last year, you know, the guys at the top of the board year after year after year and

that top 10, they're all in that bonus putting category and you want guys that make everything inside

10 feet and the guys that from time to time have a knack for making things over 25 feet and that

that's the perfect description for Max Grazerman on the greens. And at 80, he kind of sits in that

zone where, you know, if the iron play rolls a little bit, that would be a guy I could see

in the top five going into Sunday and not just your first round leader on Thursday. So

that's a name I'm very interested in this week. Interesting. His iron play has been really bad

this year. It would be the one thing. It's funny that you mentioned the galley. He is 14th

in approach, fourth around the green, 17th and putting. That's almost every check box that you

want. He's awful driving. He's outside the top 75. But as we've pointed out a few times,

you take driver out of these guys hands at a less than driver course and all of a sudden that

other stuff matters the most. The thing with the galley, I have seen him hit driver a zillion times

on the range and it's all over the map. And I've seen him hit his hybrid and his long irons on the

range. And this guy hits missiles. He hits lasers with these things. And I'm like, man, those things

should be a lot closer. So maybe it's just a tee. I'm not sure what the difference is. But

I would rely on said the galley at this stage right now in the way that he's playing to hit long

iron shots for me. Those par threes positionally off the tee. They're going to get some roll out

there. He's not going to need to rely on the driver much. There's a lot to like with Saif for sure.

You want to hear my fix? Yeah, come on.

All right. Again, these will be all available for you. If you don't do list them on,

I mean, list them off in real time here. But if you miss them, here we are. And I'm playing these

all in the three place markets on bet 365 outside why bet one with Brooks there. And then I bet

Brooks at cool bet as well because they boosted him up to 32 to one for me. So if you're in Canada,

outside of Ontario, hit the description, get on cool bet. And I got NCAA props. I have a top

Canadian prop that's boosted plus Brooks boosted up to 32 to one at speed at 40 with the three

places. Brooks at 45 with the three places. Nicolae Hoigard and Rio heats at Suni, both at 66 to one

with those three places. And I went with Rasmus Hoigard 80 to one with the three places. Those are my

big five. All right. Two comments. One, we, it's been established that you want to be a good

putter here. And if we, and if we're correct at that, I get the Brooks ball striking. I totally

get that. But the putter doesn't give you pause. It gives me ultimate pause. But he's one of the

few players in this field who's like top five in approach, top 10 in driving. And this kind of

broke it down when when I look between, can you be a good putter? Are you good at putting,

bad at putting, good at around the green, bad at around the green. His around the green is still

really good. That if he can just make a couple of nine footers, we're in business.

And the second comment I'm good with that. The second comment I'll make is that and

I actually did graduate college double major in biology pre-med. I obviously don't use that.

But the question. Okay. I always hear Americans say that. What is pre-med?

It's like a very strong concentration in your sciences. So you're going to get a lot of chemistry.

You're going to get like I wasn't taking English literature. Yeah. So you took a sciences degree.

Okay. But I don't, I just don't get it. Like is everyone who's in

sciences? Are they pre-med? Or is it just like you thought about going to med school once

you're a pre-med? And you also take biology? I mean, I did it for four years. I thought I

did a little more than think about it. Did you think that you were going to go to med school?

I was very close to doing that. Yes. I'm glad you didn't. I took a year. Well, yeah. I mean,

I guess I guess the jury's still out on that. But I'm glad that you think that way. You know,

I mean, we're Americans. We overcomplicate things all the time. You guys up in Canada,

you have large drinks. We have down here. We have super size drinks. I mean, it's just,

it is what it is. You know, it's, I guess it's a cultural thing. I don't know. But anyway,

our large is just your like our large is like your small. I was trying to try on that TGL gear

when I was there. None of the sizes making every time I go to the states, none of the sizes make

any sense. Like, yeah, this is a medium. I'm like, this is a mumu. Like is it M for mumu is what

this might as well be? Need like an extra, extra kid's small. It's outrageous.

Has the fineberg story at TGL merchandise shop come? Has that? That is not surface yet.

Okay. Would you, would you like to tell it from your vantage point? And I can tell it from my

vantage point if you'd like to start. I mean, I almost feel like he should be here, but I guess

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today so you never miss a moment. When we all went down to TGL, they were very nice to give us

a parting gift. It was a gift card to go in the shop. Myself and Pat and Jeff went to go shop

together. I was just looking for something for my kids. It was really, really cold in the SoFi

Center. I had been there many times. I knew that so I had my layers on, but Jeff and Pat were

under the guys that they were going to Florida where it was warm. They were both looking for

something for themselves. They both grabbed a hoodie. Very, very simple hoodie. Yes, the sizing was

a bit of its own side story, but we go through the line. Pat gets his, he's done. I was working with

getting something for my kids, so I was texting with them, and I got done with that. I picked shirts

out for them, and I went through, and there was like $15 left on my gift card. Jeff was next in line,

and I turned to Jeff, and I said, hey, you should use the rest of this money. I'm sure that that

hoodie is more than what your card is for. He said, oh, thanks, Keith. I appreciate that. Then

I walked away, and I found Pat, and we were standing about 20 feet away, and then what happened, Pat?

He just stood there for a while, looking very upset, and then there was extra managers around,

and I don't even think there was a manager at this one spot, and there was one employee who was

working there the entire time, and he was trying to ring Jeff in. Then all of a sudden two more

employees appeared. Jeff can't buy anything using this card, and he just looks like he's not mad,

but he has that like Jeff, like, face on the go, and he's just standing there. We're sitting there,

like it must have been 15 minutes. Oh, and the best part was when we went through the line,

there was nobody in line, and this is an important part of the story. While Jeff is at the lead of

the line, there's a building line behind him. There have to be at the point with which he finally

gives up. There's 25 to 30 people behind him in line, just all jammed up, looking at him with like

two managers and two registered people around him, and he's just, and the best part is, is like,

he would have never even gone to the shop if he hadn't been given the gift card, and he went in

there, and it's turned into his own private pain cave, and the facial expressions, because we couldn't

hear, you know, you and I were 25 feet away. We couldn't hear what was going on, but the facial

expressions from Jeff, I mean, I wish I recorded the whole thing. If I did, it would have been

absolute gold for like some sort of award-show thing, or, you know, the end of the year for the

Mayo Media Network. I mean, it was one of the funniest things I've ever seen.

My favorite part was he was already wearing the sweatshirt as he was trying to buy it, and then he

had to take it off. That's right. That's right. That's right. Oh, man. And then he just takes it off

and leaves it, and he walks away, and he walks over. You and I were both like, Jeff, how'd that go,

as if we didn't know? He's like, just, just, just start walking, just start walking. And we went back,

the best part was, the moral to the story though, we went back to the media center, we talked to

the powers that be, and Jeff got his sweatshirt. I don't know how it worked out with gift cards,

or whatever, but he wore a TGL sweatshirt. And I think he should, I think, appropriately, the next

time he's on with you covering golf, he should, he should definitely wear the sweatshirt.

I'll text him after we finish up to make sure that he wears that next Monday. Okay. So,

spieth, both Hoygards, Brooks, and he said, soonay, he eats the soonay number early. It's been

to be 10, like 40 or 35 to one, so it's crazy like that. He's actually past Nikolai on the board.

The other two that I had, like, long shot wise, I bet Homo at 110 with the three and

smother mid at 110 with the three. Homo is still available if you're not playing the each way extra

market. I think he's like 75 to one is an outright smotherman's down to like 40. Yeah, smotherman's down,

down here in America, he's like 50 to one, but he's definitely got beat down from where he's been,

you know, you talk about him being the, when you hit him his first round leader, it cognizant at 110

that day. I mean, it's, it's a different world for Austin smotherman. The, you know, we get,

I don't know how he got on Jeff in the sweatshirt, but we were talking about me not being a doctor,

and I was going to make a second comment. I said, I had two comments. I said, one was the Brooks

putter thing. The other thing is, is that, and I pick up on these things, and I've been out on

tour for three weeks. And I know that Jordan hasn't been there for three weeks, but something's going

on there with spieth. There's something going on with his gate. And again, I'm not a doctor,

folks, but there's something going on where he's, he's, he's walking different than the way that

we've seen him walk since, you know, since he became a superstar on the PGA tour. So that's just

something I'm giving pause to right now. Well, maybe it's a good thing because he's starting to play

a little bit better. That might be true, but your left leg is your post leg, and that's the one

he's favoring. So I'm not quite sure. And again, I don't have any details on this yet. All I'm telling

you is that he's not walking the same way that he normally walks. And I mean, that's why you

send me to these places. That's right. Yeah. I'm your man on the front lines is because I notice

these things. I knew about Jordan's wrist well before. And we milked that cow for, I don't know how

long it had to head bets, live bets, also every, every advantage we could take in that situation,

we did. And we profited very, very nicely from that. And there's something going on here. I'm just,

he may win this week, and I can be totally wrong, but he's walking differently, Pat. He

fits exactly the same sort of stat profile that the Galatas for whatever reason, Jordan's driver

has gone the other way. It's after being such a strength for him for two straight years. It's

kind of reverted back to being kind of bad. And it has been for about a month now, but the approach

play keeps getting better, better and better. He's back to making putts again, and even the short

putts he's making, and that around the green game, it has all of a sudden magic beans materialize

that if this is a course where he can just keep it and play off the tee, not the ass to both keep

it and play and drive it as far as everyone else, the rest of his game can take over here. And he's

made tons of runs at this tournament over the years. So the driver's bad, the left leg is favored,

and that's the side that you drill into with your hardest swing in the bag. But now he doesn't have

to do that this week. Well, hey, I'm just, this is, this is, this is why we chat. This is why it's

the final word, right? This is why we, you know, this comes out on a Wednesday. People want to know

the most up to date information. And that's what I'm trying to, you know, deliver here. So for

everyone minus 2.3 strokes gained at the players minus 2.4 at the genesis minus 1.5 at AT&T weirdly at

at API. He was in the positive just marginally. But I'm, what I'm seeing is like five and a half

strokes gained on approach, two and a half, six strokes gained putting, two strokes gained putting.

I'm just trying to match up the irons and putter and that all of the guys I've taken this week

kind of fall in that similar boat. They just spike with their irons. Can I get them hot enough

on the greens? And that's the route that I'm trying to take here. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm,

I'm riding shotgun in that car for sure. I'm down with that. We might have a couple of different

names, but it sounds like, you know, you and I do our research completely independent of one

another. I already, I mean, if people didn't know that, I brought up Nikolai and said I hadn't

heard much Nikolai. So I hadn't talked to you about it for sure. But I mean, the par three thing,

the approach thing, the putter thing and just the overall ball striking and talent that both the

twins have, but Nikolai is like expressing right now is pretty impressive to watch. You know, both

those guys can strike a golf ball. They're tons of fun. And in a very European sense,

um, they're not really tight. Much, you know, they do look kind of stoic or whatever, but like,

they're fun around the range and the practice areas and everything. And you can tell that people

enjoy their company. So, um, you know, I wish nothing but the best for them. I think they're good for

golf. And I think there are a problem when you start talking about the rider cup for years to come

because like there's two of them. It's not just one's bad. There's two of them. Uh, what in

Duds? Where's your head on? What in Duds this week? Oh, I still grab bets here. I have bet a lot of

money this week. And after losing all my money last week, I'm getting it all back this week.

I played two insane long shot winners. I played AJ York at 300 to one with 10 places. So at top 10,

pay is one fifth of that. What's that? 40. I don't even know. I'm terrible. I wasn't pre-med. So

that's me. Uh, what is that? Um, five 60 to one. So 60 60 to one as a top 10 for AJ York, which is

nice. Brian Campbell, 2000 to one with three places. And I also played at 600 to one with 10 places.

So if Brian Campbell wins this week, I think it works out to be like 70 grand for me. Keith,

so let's go Brian Campbell. Um, man, that's a lot of soup. Uh, geez. Oh, flip. I don't know. I

really don't have a, I mean, I, the newer thing I see, I actually, I, there is a path there.

You're saying there's a chance. The other thing, um, I don't know. Hey, you want, let's see,

he's 2001. He won twice last year. Why not? No, he did. And I mean, like,

Mollinati won here. Uh, the interesting thing about Campbell winning was that he went at the place,

you know, he wins it. Uh, be down to my arc to where it's like, even Bomber's Paradise, Sammy

Valamaki and, and, and Pocketer and all these guys that bomb it and everything. He obviously

doesn't do that. And then he goes to an accuracy driven place like, you know, um, TPC deer run,

and he wins there. And in either case, did anyone have any, any clue it was coming? So

if you want to take a chance, at least there's a guy that's closed twice in the last year versus

a lot of people who, if they throw out these like, you know, ridiculous bets at 300 or 2000 to

one. And it's like, is that guy even alive? Campbell's approach boy has been pretty good this year.

That's it. That's all he's been doing. But he can still hit approaches. He can't do anything else.

So maybe you can backdoor into one of those decent putting weeks. He had those two times last

year. We'll see at coolbet.com right now. Uh, this is the best number you can find. It's actually,

I bet it's 16. It's actually up to 17. I bet AJ, you weren't as top Canadian at 16 to one. And

then I played five first round leaders. Taylor Moore, Zach Blair, Zach Bauchu, Davis Riley,

and AJ, you work that goes from 60 to one. The other four guys are above 100 to one with you work

at 180 to one and then live South Africa. Jose Luis Ballester, 40 to one. It is a, I was talking

to Vincent Z's like, it is a pure bomb and gouge track. So Bryson, Burmister, Lucas Herbert,

or take the guy who hits it farther than Bryson and Ballester.

Yeah, I'm not a live guy. You know, I'll tell you, I'll give you LPGA bets if you want.

Oh, yeah, yeah. Have you had the LPGA? It's like, I just feel like, I have only so much

bandwidth at the end of the day. Listen, I don't do LPGA. I like to consume a little

live and bet on that. And listen, this is why we're working together. So you can give me the info

on the LPGA. So very quickly, I know it's March 18th, but the LPGA tomorrow is going to take on

their first full field event of the 2026 calendar year. Pat, the first one, Nelly Corda, the Taylor

Swift of the LPGA. She's played three rounds this year. We've talked about the fourth or lack

thereof. She's played three rounds all year. We are in the middle of March. What are we doing?

I don't know, but I'll tell you what, this week, it's the Fortinet Founders Cup. Fortinet found a

home for themselves after they lost their fall event. The Founders Cup is an event that has bounced

around a bunch for the LPGA, but this week it is out there in the Bay Area at a place called

Sharon Heights Golf and Country Club. What's unique about that is that it's right around the

corner from Stanford. It's that style of Northern California golf course. Very parkland,

lot of terrain changes, very much like the golf course that the better experience of this week,

but the ladies will use more drivers just because they're more accurate by nature. I love

Rosang. She's still living out there. She's still trying to finish her degree at Stanford,

and she's still playing very well in the LPGA tour. One event this year, she finished top 10,

and that one didn't get finished. Then the other one, I would keep an eye on, is Lydia Coe. She's

had a great start to her season, a couple of top 10s and three starts, and she spends half her time

in the San Francisco area with her husband after they got married. He works up in that area,

probably in tech or entrepreneurship or whatever it may be, and she spends the other half of her

time in Orlando at Lake Nona. I'm going to run with a couple other names if you read the line,

but I'll give you two and that's Lydia Coe and Rosang. I'm in. You sold me, and then I'll read

the newsletter to find out the other ones. Bet them too. We already have an LPGA win this year,

and it was over 25 to one, which is very difficult to do. Hannah Green gave us 27 to one, so

if you could be sharp and find anything over 25 to one, and Rose is sitting there at like 35,

I don't think the LPGA brokers are watching this show, so everyone could bet it, and her number won't

get affected, and then maybe it'll even grow a little bit for us. I just bet Lydia 25 to one,

and the best I can get on Rose is 35 to one, like you said. Bet that too. Yeah. Easy game.

Maybe they both can win. Those are two good ones. A very traditional style golf course there,

so you're going with two players that know how to not only golf their ball, but they also know how

to close as well. One in one in them. Let's talk through the one in them, because I have an idea.

I don't know if I'm going to pull the trigger on. I ended up going with CWU last week in the big one.

Someone asked me because I had more a cava on the show. The pick I make on the show with Jeff

and Tim, that's for the one and done that I play with Jeff and Tim. It's a three man one and done.

Totally different strategy from what you should be trying to do in the large 5,000 person race for

the Mayo Cup at fantasy golf championships.com. Fancy golf championships.com. I've already used

Rasmus Hoiger. That's where I was going to go. Speed, I think, is interesting, or you can kind of

pivot a little bit and just don't worry about the guys at the top. You're probably going to use

them at bigger events. Is that safe to say? I mean, I think some of the guys at the top, you'd

much rather use them at bigger events than this. What's the 1.7, 1.64 million for first?

I used Fleetwood last week. Nice backdoor top 10, so that got me over 700 grand. Thankfully,

I used more cava the week before, which was like, I don't know, 800 grand or something at bayhill.

I don't know, I think the aisle makes a lot of sense this week in a 1 and done.

I agree. I don't know a lot of other places I'm going to use in Pat.

Yeah, and there's a bunch of guys like this. Where am I? Brooks, maybe you can save for a major

if the forum turns around, but he's probably going to be too popular this week because I've seen him

just how to a bunch in the spot in the space. So yeah, spieth, I think is interesting. Both

Hoigards are interesting. The Gala becomes very interesting because you're probably just not

going to use these guys anywhere else. The other one, if you wanted to get very sneaky for someone

who by the long term stats and the player profile fits perfectly for this course and we did see

signs of life on the weekend at the players for essentially the first time all seasons, JJ spawn.

There was signs of life down there. I didn't believe it, but there were signs of life.

If you drew up all the skills that we've talked about on the show, normally those are the JJ spawn

skills. They just haven't been this year. Yeah, the putters been tough. You use all your putting

luck on that one pun at the US open, then you can never make a pun again. I take it. I mean,

how do you not? One of the most iconic US open, if not maybe the most iconic US open

venue in Oakmont. The guy hit a historic putt on the final hole in just an unbelievable finish.

I'd sign for that in blood. If I'd never won or was never relevant again,

a guy made it into a rider cup. I mean, that's pretty cool. Play good into rider cup. The putter

needs to get better for him. But definitely signs of life and sawgrass. It's my two main entries.

I have speed on one. I have Nikolai on the other because I've used Rasmus. I

double barreled Rasmus at the at PGA National when he came eighth. Just I was going to use him again.

So why not? I just don't see where I'm going to use speed again. Maybe I use him at Valero in two

weeks. Probably not going to use him as a major and that's kind of hit. Yeah, I use Nikolai.

Well, I burn Nikolai at PGA National. So I think in that range and the fact that the Gala checks

both the around the green and the putter box gives me, you know, knock on wood,

makes me feel confident that he'll play the weekend and that we're going to get some cash out

of this guy because this place can be volatile. And you want to make sure that you get to those

last 36 holes. Oh, for sure. The other two, if you wanted to go slightly more expensive and

better odds, I wouldn't use Xander. I wouldn't use Fitz. I wouldn't use Thomas. I'd say those guys

for later. I think that they'll just have better opportunities that are worth more money. Be it

the heritage, the masters, wherever it might be, some signature event. Oxe or Bridgeman make

sense if you haven't used them too. Yes. Yeah, I'll definitely say the Bridgeman thing. I would

say Bridgeman over Oxe, but I'll definitely agree on the Bridgeman thing. I think that,

I mean, he could be that, he could be this year's Ben Griffin. That's very possible. He has the

skill set to do it. But if he doesn't, and this is his run, then you want to capitalize,

for sure. You got some questions for me? Oh, absolutely. Name one favorite to miss the cut.

Justin Thomas, if you could pick one superpower, what would it be and why?

Is being from the future or knowing the future of superpower? Yeah, share to read the future.

Yeah, I'd like to do that. I wouldn't use it for good either. Oh, man. So you'd want to know,

I mean, this is going to get dark quick, but you would want to know when it's over. I mean,

I wouldn't have to know that. Would I? If I wanted to know, I could. I'm just thinking about like

four days from now, like seeing a day into the future. That'd be just so, so beneficial.

So this is purely like a Marty McFly sports betting book type, you know,

plan. Yeah, I would be Biff Tammond. You want to go with the four day lottery and you,

you want to win every golf bet until every book on the planet, um, shuts you out from, you know,

from beyond the financial type stuff. I wouldn't do this. I wouldn't have to golf bet.

I can just play the stock market at that point. That's true. Yeah. That makes sense.

Commodities says, you know, gold. Yeah, my orange, orange futures.

Usch. Yeah. Great movie. Best hole on the copperhead, of course, in your opinion.

Best hole. Eight drives me nuts, which is that super long par three, but it is a real differentiator

in the tournament. I like 16. 16 is probably my favorite of the holes. Yeah, 16 is tons of fun.

And I think 18 is underrated. There's always seems to be some sort of drama there. And it's,

it's really not that crazy of a hole, but it's definitely one of those.

Uh, I know the snake pick gets a lot of press being 16, 17, 18. I really enjoy 15 too.

I think it's a hard par five. Uh, 15 is the par five. Yeah. I thought maybe

14. 14 is good. Yeah, 14. Sorry. Yeah, 14 because you basically, it's very difficult to head

into. So you have to hit that scoring shot in there, um, which is something so heath is good at.

Uh, if you could buy any car, what would it be? Right now, like realistically or just like any car,

no, like if you had all the money in the world, because you had, you know, you had,

you're able to see the future and you want all this money betting this weekend at the

Valspar, you can buy any car you want. What would you buy? I probably get some sort of like real

fancy Bentley. Ooh, I like that. So you go like a classy car, not like a, not like a Ferrari or

something. No, especially where I live, there's nowhere to drive a Ferrari, really. All right.

And you can't drive it here the entire year. If I lived like Miami, yeah, sure, give me a Ferrari.

But I mean, not even Miami, like anywhere where there's traffic, I don't understand

owning these like super fast cars, like like live in like a small town in Italy and just drive

as fast as you want. Yeah, you can buy a house. If you had that much money, you buy a house over

the autobahn and then just go over there and drive it when you want to just drive drive, drive back

and forth, go to like the Danish border all the way down to the Austrian border three times a day in

your Ferrari. I mean, what's interesting and what led me down the road of this question was that

when I asked you to rate your driving from a one to 10 and you were like, it's like a 12,

I thought you might go for more of a sporty car, but you're going with something more classic.

It's just an interesting juxtaposition of your viewpoint or perspective on driving.

Those are the cars that I would just enjoy to drive on day to day. Yeah, if I had to go take

out the world's fastest car, I would enjoy doing that. All right. Well, best 6K golf for this week.

You're Riley, Jeremy Paul, you're AJ, you are. All right. How do you order your pizza?

I usually just get meat lovers. Do you guys have that or the works? Yeah, meat lovers for sure.

So the works is basically meat lovers with mushrooms and green peppers. Okay. I like, I always

love if you get meat lovers that you throw something salty on there, whether it be like

pursuit or bacon or something like that to go along with like the sausage and the ground meat,

but yeah, meat lovers, I'm in for. What do you feel like is the, if you had to pick one skill

this week in order to contend on the copperhead course, what would it be? Approach.

How many hours of sleep did you get last night? That's an interesting question because I can't

even really remember it this way. I would say three. His I'm on my wife is on newborn baby duty.

I'm on rest of the kids duty. And it's been a hurricane up here for the past 24 hours.

It's just wind and rain. It was super loud last night. So one of my kids came in at 3am and said

that they couldn't sleep. And I was already asleep. And when they woke up, I thought it was like

8am. I was like, oh no, we're going to be late. So you go get your clothes on. I got dressed at 3am.

And then finally looked at the clock. He's like, oh my god, like what is wrong with me? So that was

3am. So I finally got back to sleep like 40 minutes later. Then my son comes in and said that he

was having nightmares. And he wanted to sleep in the bed. But I'm sleeping in the baby's room

right now. Well, my wife is in our bed with the newborn. There's not a very big bed in there,

like the extra bed that we have in the new baby's room. So it's like the three of us. And it's like

little dinky twin size bed. Eventually I had to get out of that bed, leave them in there and go

to one of their rooms lay down. Well, for those that don't know, Pat had an addition to his family

last week. Congratulations. Thank you. One friend to another. I'm glad to hear that baby and mom

are healthy and happy. And I wish you as much sleep as possible. I won't keep you any longer.

Take it away, Pat. That will do it on the Pat Mayo experience. You can follow Keith

at read the line.com. You can get his free newsletter down in the description. There's also a

premium version of that. The Pat Mayo experience Mayo media newsletter. That's just free because

it doesn't contain as good of information. So I can't charge for that. But it is free. It will

get sent directly to you. If you're looking for a complete rundown on everything that's been

happening in golf this week, that will come out on Wednesday afternoon as always. Smash the like

sub to the channel and play in that NCAA bracket. It's free. It's on underdog. Got to play it

through the app. But there's $2,500 in prizes. Not bad for a free tournament, right? I'm Pat Mayo.

Thanks for watching. I'll see you next time.