Values and Uncertainties

Eric Winsberg (USF) gives a talk at the MCMP Colloquium (29 May, 2013) titled "Values and Uncertainties". Abstract: There has been a great deal of emphasis, in recent years, on developing methods for quantifying uncertainty in the predictions of global and regional climate models. Such an approach would allow a division of labor between those who discover the facts and those who decide what we should value. And it is in line with a famous defense of scientific objectivity due to Richard Jeffrey. I argue, however, that value neutral probabilities for climate model projections will be hard to come by in the foreseeable future. In this paper I consider a variety of alternative proposals for presenting what we know about the future from climate models. I suggest that any such proposal ought to take account of " risk aversion" and "ambiguity aversion."