Nick Valdez looks at war's effect on Bitcoin and the results are shocking! When you look at the previous geopolitical tensions, BTC has a short window where it seems to pump every time! If history repeats, where will the rally potentially fade?
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Transcript
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More is tragic, but it's not necessarily bearish for Bitcoin.
When you look at the Russian Ukraine invasion, the October 7th attack, and the 12-day war last year,
all of those events would lead to a Bitcoin pump.
But that pump would be short-lived, so what does that mean for Bitcoin today?
So we're going to look at all three events, and then I discovered a very particular pattern that Bitcoin seems to follow after every single major geopolitical event.
We're going to use that information to predict Bitcoin's next move because it looks like it's following the playbook exactly.
So let's start with the Russia Ukraine war.
Now, obviously has an earlier start date, but the major escalation, it began February 24th, 2022.
And you can see it right here in the charts.
Look how long that WIC is right there.
So the markets were very, very upset.
It was spooked.
Things got a little bit heated, but the markets would very quickly recover.
It would actually finish the day in the green and then pump higher the next day and then pump even higher the next day.
But there is a pattern that I notice, and it seems like Bitcoin will pump for about 30 days, and then we'll find a local top.
So in this particular case, it is 32 days later, but we're just going to be looking at 30 days because it keeps following the same pattern.
So Russia Ukraine, it would pump for 30 days, local top on 32, and then you would see a price correction, you know, pretty quickly thereafter.
Now, the next event we're going to look at is the October 7th attacks.
These did happen in 2023.
So let's just dive into those charts.
And now you should never make light of war, but you know, there are events that can, you know, maybe help bolster your finances during these events.
And the elites definitely are.
So I don't want you to be sidelines either.
So right here, you can see October 7th would create a string of red days afterwards.
Bitcoin would fall roughly about, you know, about five, six percent over the next few days there.
But then Bitcoin very quickly would recover.
It would end up pumping 27% over 30 days.
But unlike 32 days, this would find a local peak in 33 days.
So in Russia, Ukraine, we would pump about 30% over 30 days in October 7th.
We would pump about 30% over 30 days.
Let's go to the next one.
It's going to be the 12 day war.
This is the 13th to the 24th of June 2025.
So that takes us to this and then we're going to look at today's price action.
So here is the 12 day war.
Again, the markets were spooked.
You can see that long, long tail on the bottom.
What do you know?
It would actually finish in the green.
Now we keep seeing local peaks.
If you look here, this one's 31 days.
So we had a local peak at 32, 33 and now 31.
And this would be the smallest of all the pumps.
This would only pump about 17%.
Now, of course, this is towards the end of the bull run and Bitcoin,
you know, probably just running out of a little bit of steam.
Now the reason I'm only doing 30 days is I don't really think we can determine too much past that.
I think after that, it's more important where you are in the four year cycle with the start date,
rather than any other kind of data.
But we do keep seeing this pattern that emerges within about a month after a major, major escalation.
Let's zoom into today.
Now it does look like right now Bitcoin is starting to pump out of this little bit of a symmetrical triangle.
And again, you can see the markets initially shocked.
Then would end in the green here, you know,
it'll wick all the way down here to the bottom of this range,
creating a nice little one touch, two touch, three touch,
and then eventually would start pumping off of that news.
So what is the price prediction for the 30 days?
So we're going to go ahead and measure this.
Now this is a symmetrical triangle and there is a target.
So we're just going to run the classic TA target.
You do it when it touches the top and the bottom.
That's going to be this area right here.
This is going to give us our potential breakout.
This isn't guarantees.
Just gives us a technical target.
And if you look, that's going to pump us up to about $83,000.
But we can also look at the date and let's just see how does this work?
If this were to happen in about 30 days,
are we seeing the same type of pattern?
We're seeing the exact same pattern.
This would also give us a 30% pump over about 30 days.
Now one thing I really like about this level is I'll just throw down this horizontal line.
So you can see what I'm talking about here.
That gives us this nice little area of support.
And you can see the support right here as well.
So history definitely doesn't have to repeat,
but every time history has rhymed.
And if history continues to rhyme,
we might be seeing about 83K Bitcoin at the end of March.
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