Warm, dry and snow-scarce conditions in western US may waver soon; plus, Florida citrus in trouble after temperatures plunged

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A mainly dry, unseasonably warm setup that has persisted over much of the Western United

States for the past month or so is about to break down.

While that pattern shift may not bring massive changes all at once, it could allow storms

to return to California and bring opportunities for snow to the interior west in the coming

weeks.

The jet stream has been convoluted over the past month, a large dip in the east has driven

waves of Arctic air from Minnesota all the way to Florida.

In the west, the jet stream has had a large northward bulge leading to a lack of storms

mainly dry and warm conditions and areas of air stagnation.

Beginning later this weekend, the jet stream will become a little less convoluted while maintaining

the eastern dip and western bulge.

This subtle change will allow a storm from the northern Pacific to approach the northwestern

U.S. with areas of rain and mountain snow from Washington to northern Idaho and the northwestern

parts of Montana and California.

Snow levels will dip down to pass level in the Washington Cascades late in the weekend

to early next week with slippery travel.

That storm will succeed in dragging colder air and snow into the zone from the interior

northwest to the northern part of the Rockies during the first part of next week.

Snow is much needed not only to support the region's skiing industry in the short term,

but also to help with spring runoff and water use concerns for the summer season.

A lack of deep snow means that streams and rivers will run low sooner in the spring unless

there is ample thunderstorm activity.

As acuethers brand in Buckingham pointed out recently, there are multiple locations in

Florida that have received more snow this season than Salt Lake City.

The snow drought is far reaching inland from the Cascades and Sierra Nevada.

Lander Wyoming has recorded only about 10% of its seasonal snowfall through February 5th.

For the same period, Flagstaff located high in the mountains of northern Arizona has received

only about a quarter of its historical average.

Some of the moisture and energy from the upcoming storm in the northwest early next week

will go on to see a vast zone of snow and ice over the north central and north eastern regions

of the U.S. later next week.

Another part of that storm and one that follows along the Pacific coast will tend to sink

southward in the western states next week with spotty areas of rain and mountain snow.

Acuethers lead long-range meteorologist Paul Pastelock said,

colder and more moist Pacific air will flow across much of the west during weeks two and

three of February, a period of wet and snowy weather will return after the mid-winter hiatus

for much of the west.

The gradual moistening and cooling will take some time to unfold, for example, temperatures

that surged into the 70s, 80s and near 90 on Wednesday in coastal areas of southern California

will gradually trans downward into next week with highs forecast to back to close to historical

average by the middle of next week.

Acuethers senior long-range meteorologist Joe Lundberg said,

there is some indication that a large storm will form and roll into California toward the

middle of the month.

If that storm lives up to speculation, it should bring decent snow to the mountains in the

southwestern quarter of the nation.

The amount of snow Salt Lake City might receive from it is uncertain this far out,

but the Sierra Nevada should make up for some lost ground with practically no snow in the past five

weeks.

The same storm could renew heavy rain and the risk of flash flooding in portions of California

and the deserts, as more potent storms begin to roll in from the Pacific, areas of persistent

valley fog over the interior west will gradually disperse, but there will still be at least

several more days of dense fog and poor air quality for locations such as California's central valley.

Whether conditions look to be dry for the Super Bowl on Sunday in Santa Clara,

although the day may start with fog in some areas.

Well, as mentioned earlier, Florida has been battling wintery conditions the past few weeks with

those conditions threatening citrus and berry crops across the state as a rare and dangerous

cold snap pushed deep into the south.

Overnight lows plunged into the 20s across parts of central and south Florida, cold enough to

damage fruit, blossoms, and young plants in just a few hours.

Growers worked through the night using irrigation systems to spray citrus and berry fields

continuously, while it may seem counterintuitive the technique helps protect crops because as water

freezes, it releases heat shielding plants from even colder air.

Matt Joyner, executive vice president and CEO of Florida Citrus Mutual, the trade association

representing Florida Citrus growers, said the last time growers experienced impacts of this magnitude

was back in 2010. And for produce growers, every degree matters, often meaning the difference between

a harvest saved or a harvest lost. While Florida farmers continue to assess losses from the weekend

cold snap, acuether experts say the duration of freezing temperatures has already impacted future

harvests. This cold snap could push growers to harvest later season oranges, including Valencia's

earlier than planned. Florida's citrus production is now roughly 20 percent of what it was during

its peak in the 70s and 80s, with about 1,500 citrus growers remaining statewide. Repeated

freezes, disease outbreaks, drought, and increasing international competition have all contributed

to the industry's long-term decline. Joyner said this cold snap is not a catastrophic event,

like the 1989 hard freeze, when entire crops were lost. As one farmer said, this is part of farming,

and it's certainly part of what we've done for generations in the state of Florida,

whether it's freezes or hurricanes, growers are used to it, and we're resilient. We had a good crop

going, and we will continue to get that crop off the tree and be able to provide all the juice

and fresh fruit that consumers know and love from Florida. That's all for now. You can find more

regional forecasts and science-based articles at acuether.com, and for your local forecast,

at your fingertips download the acuether app. Enjoy the rest of your day, be safe, I'll be back

tomorrow with more from acuether. Rinse knows that greatness takes time, but so does laundry,

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