What do markets believe is real

We've apparently moved from obliterate to productive conversations in just over a day.

What do markets believe is real?

I'm joined now by Matt Goodson from Salt Funds Management.

Good morning Matt.

Straight away I suppose.

We're looking at a picture where there's a lot to process, right?

What has really changed in the last 24 hours that gives anyone any confidence about

where this crust is headed?

Yeah. Look, there are well-sourced articles suggesting that the Americans

have started to talk about talking.

And talking about talking is not bombing, right?

So that's probably a sign that things are headed towards a pause

and we saw that, I suppose, with where oil wrapped in the last little while.

Where's the conversation moving, though?

Indeed.

Now, the issue here is the Iranians seem to hold the keys.

They seem really impervious to their significant conventional military losses

and they control the straits of hormones.

And it's very unclear if a direct military action would be able to unlock that.

And they know that and they know that the Americans understand that now.

So it's a very difficult situation and markets understand that too.

Are they starting to look ahead a little bit further and work out what the knock-on impacts of this is likely to be,

how it's likely to disrupt production in agriculture and industry and manufacturing?

Indeed. And I think it's one of the issues that Trump and the Americans are now facing

is you don't have the Federal Reserve at your back anymore.

A data last week suggests if anything of Fed's next move could even be a hike unlikely but not impossible.

And you're starting to see cost pressures emerge everywhere.

Petri prices are up in America.

Very soon you'll start to see the shortage of helium impact on chip production.

Where there's already a significant shortage.

Fertilizer costs the Fed in into food prices already as we go into the main planting season.

People aren't planting corn or switching to other crops because it's Fertilizer heavy.

Et cetera, et cetera.

So you're seeing these impacts right through the economy now.

And that's putting pressure on America to look for an off-frame if I can find one.

They're helium stories interesting.

I mean, you're talking, I think, in the last couple of days Elon Musk's talking about a TeraFab,

this massive chip production facility he wants to build down in Austin to try and take on Taiwan semi-conductor basically

at their own game and build out.

Does the picture for that all look less likely and less invisible if you've not solved the energy problem in the gas problem?

Well, by the time that's ever built, obviously you'd think this is over.

You know, there are certain key things you need.

And one of them is helium, which is a key byproduct of the LNG that's produced in the Gulf.

I guess there's maybe some optimism probably from US producers that they're going to fill some of that gas gap

that's being created in Asian markets as well.

It'll take a while for that to actually adjust and get priced correctly, yeah?

Oh, indeed. I mean, the US is a washing gas, in gas, as a byproduct of all of his share oil production.

But in turn, US share oil production has been peaking. They've been high grading.

So, yeah, and they've been significantly growing at LNG exports, but it's going to take years and years to fill the hole.

Gold's back. What's going on?

Gold's strange. You have a great safe haven. It's down 17% this year.

It hasn't worked.

Got a bit hot last year, maybe?

Yeah, look, I think there's a couple of things that have happened.

One is there've been a lot of retail tourists in the stock.

You know, lots of photos of people lining up, curing, making appointments at the gold center to sell their gold or buy gold.

And secondly, it's become a little bit more institutionalized as an asset.

So, when you get the risk allocator come knocking and say reduce risk,

that degro scene affects everything, including gold.

So, I think in the short, in the medium term, it may still work.

As it did in the 70s oil crisis.

But in the very short term, you've seen this de-risking of all positions.

And maybe just a bit of that froth come off the top of it.

Perhaps as people get a bit more realistic about that.

For sure. And in reality, as gold miners are making extraordinary margins at current prices,

and the number of little Australian companies that produce 5,000 to 100,000 ounces,

you think they're tiny, and over a couple of billion dollars, it's quite remarkable.

If they can still get the diesel.

Hey, just speaking of diesel and engines, it's Holland Tuners.

Had an announcement yesterday, we had a CEO in here on Friday talking about this.

Given an indication, but they're targeting quite an ambitious profit position by 2031?

Yeah, how do I invest today yesterday, that first?

I set out a net profit for tax target of 100 million by 2031.

On our numbers, that actually looks very conservative.

The Tuners has a history of $10,000 to surprise and inverted commas to the upside.

It's been quite a remarkable story, starting off, of course, as a used car auctioneer.

And I think what they demonstrate is just the ability of being able to reinvest

and earn a return better than your cost of capital and keep reinvesting and doing that.

And now, about 9% of the New Zealand used car market now.

There's no reason why they're not going to get to 20% plus.

You