What Investors Need to Know: Rate Cuts, Rate Hikes & Capital Gains

The Canadian real estate market is facing significant transitions in 2025, with the Bank of Canada's policy rate at 3.25% and 60% of homeowners facing mortgage renewals over the next two years⁠. National Bank forecasts potential rate cuts followed by hikes in 2026⁠1⁠, while strong December job numbers cast doubt on anticipated rate cuts⁠1⁠.

• Capital gains tax changes are creating uncertainty, with the CRA moving forward with a 67% inclusion rate despite pending parliamentary approval⁠1⁠.
• Demographic shifts show seniors are now more likely to have mortgages than young adults, with 49% of mortgage debt held by those aged 45-64⁠
• Variable-rate mortgages are expected to make a comeback in 2025 as interest rates trend downward⁠, though economic indicators and potential U.S. tariffs could impact the market

Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) | BMO Global Asset Management

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