What More Can Kevin Porter Jr. UNLOCK to be the Bucks' Long-Term Solution?

0:00This is the Lockdown podcast network celebrating 10 years of your team every day. Hey sports fans, it's JD, the host of Lockdown Cardinals, and did you know with the Discover Cashback Card, it's payback time when you earn cash back on everyday purchases. Activate and earn 5% cash back in different categories each quarter on up to $1,500 in purchases. That's 5% cash back at different places each quarter like grocery stores on gas and at restaurants. It pays to discover terms apply. See Discover.com slash 5 four details. This is Jake from Lockdown. When the game is on the line, the best no way to pass. Because the right assist can change everything. And off the court, it's no different. That's where your state farm agent comes in, whether it's protecting your car, your home or helping you prep for the unexpected, that'll help set you up with a game plan that works for you. That's where your state farm agent comes in.

1:00The right assist is a good way to get your car out of the way. Like a good neighbor, state farm is there. Covered options are selected by the customer availability and eligibility vary by state. What does this upcoming season hold for Kevin Porter Jr. His role on the team areas he can grow. And ultimately, his long term fit in Milwaukee Camille and I dig through it coming up next. You are locked on bucks. You're daily Milwaukee bucks podcast part of the Lockdown podcast network. Your team every day. What did do y'all welcome in the lockdown bucks? I'm Camille Davis joined by Justin Garcia. And today's episode was brought to you by square. Right now you can get up to $200 off square hardware at square.com slash go slash NBA. Run your business smarter with square. Get started today. And on today's episode, we will be beginning our bucks season preview of all the individual

2:00players starting today with Kevin Porter Jr. So we are going to ask a handful of questions here that we will try to answer over the course of this show. Areas we can see improvement from the player. The ultimate role that they have and then one specific question. Or each of these guys for the first time in the game. Kevin Porter Jr. Camille. A very, very polarizing figure here in the chats and bucks social media. But here's a look at who Kevin Porter Jr. has been throughout his career and who he was last season. Similar to some of the cap specific shows that we have handled. I would encourage people to check out the YouTube of these shows given the screen here. But you can see the shot chart. And this is for last season only for Kevin Porter Jr. I have some thoughts on that. We will get to in just a

3:00second. But looking at the rest of the numbers here and I'll skip ahead to areas of improvement for Kevin Porter Jr. This is a look at the percentage of shots he took from certain areas on the floor. And how efficient he was there. And there is one clear takeaway to me for KPJ. And that is the absence of three point shooting. So his first five seasons four and a half seasons in the league. Actually, take that back. His first four seasons in the league prior to going overseas. You could see the percentage of shots he took that were three pointers or 30 points that were three pointers or 35, 40, 48, 41. So effectively, 40% of his field goal attempts were coming from three. The mid-range attempts were 30%, 28%, 23%.

4:02Then that final year of the rockets, it went up significantly to 35%. So I'm going to roughly say he was taking 40% of his shots from three, 30% from the mid-range. Upon his return, the three point numbers plummeted has not gotten up to 30% even since then. 24% with the clippers just under 30, that 30 game stayed with the box and then 26%. And where that came from is the mid-range. More than half of his shots with the clippers were coming from the mid-range. It's been about 41% for the box for the last 68 games. Of his career. So to me, it's as simple as that. Where can he improve is a better shot diet. And before you dig into, well, he's really good at the mid-range that chart on the bottom, the figures on the bottom are how you shot from the mid-range.

5:02And these are not typically sustainable. You don't usually see guys, especially those long mid-range shots. You don't typically see those numbers hold. And that's the most concerning thing for me is he was pretty consistently a mid-30s percent shooter on those mid-range shots. Then all of a sudden last year and that 30 game stayed with the box two years ago, he became 50% on long mid-range shots. Those are around the free-throw line to the three-point line. They're typically contested. And that's why I say those numbers usually don't hold. So that has always been my question for Kevin Porter Jr. this upcoming season is what if that shot doesn't fall? And if he's abandoning the three-point shot, what does that look like offensively?

6:02That's a big question for Kevin Porter Jr. this season and going forward. I think the three-point shooting and shot selection overall. It was the first thing I wrote down. And areas of improvement for me. And I think that such a swing skill for him this upcoming season because there are so many things that he does well. Like going through the numbers and getting prepared for this episode to talk more about him. And thinking about what like he brings to the table because he does have the shot creation. Right? He is comfortable with creating his own shot, especially like in picking role situations. I feel like he's gotten pretty good at manipulating defenses. Instead of just having to attack downhill all the time. He can get to the free throw line which as we know for the bucks. Yannis was the main guy who did that form. Kevin Porter Jr. came in that too for free throw attempts per game. There's no Yannis. Kevin Porter Jr. is coming in as somebody who you will really count on to help generate offense by getting to the free throw line as well. He's taking strides in his playmaking as well.

7:02I mentioned I feel like he can manipulate defenses pretty decently and pick and roll coming off the dribble. I think he can do the same thing. He can get into the paint. He can find you know the weak side shooters or the rollers and make those passes on time. And in addition to that, I he has really good positional size like especially if you have him as your lead creator. If he's a six five you know lead guard for you. He's not some small guy who has to be hidden defensively about average on that side of the ball. But he is one of the better rebounding guards in the lead. Had he been able to qualify for like lead leaders and whatnot. He did not play enough games. But he would have been the 10th best rebounder and rebounds per game among qualified guards including point guards and shooting guards. He was only behind guys like Josh Gidey, Luca, Josh Hart, Dyson Daniel, Cedric Cowert, BJ Edgecom, Cade Cunningham, Russell Westbrook, and Stefan Castle. The only nine guards ahead of him and rebounds per game. And for him having all of

8:02those tools right there. If the three point shot and the overall shot selection for him can be better. You are talking about a guy who can really really make some noise for the scene. Yeah, to your point. Since he came back from playing overseas, he has been at worst in the 93rd percentile of defensive rebounding rate for his position. He was in the 100th percentile and that 30 game stand with the buck. So what he does really well is rebound for his position and how he's able to create turnovers. He has been in the upper 90s in terms of percentiles in steals rate and getting the bucks out in transition. So really I would spot like the three things that he does exceptionally well creating turnovers rebounding and he continues to be able to make some noise for the other players. So he continues and he will be now, but he was at

9:03worst second best on the team the last couple of years. He's going to be the best in terms you would think of getting to the free throw line because that is another very massive strength to his game is his free throw rate. So I know we have been accused mostly me more than you of being hypercritical of him. So I'm going to be a bit more careful with the loss that concern me on the court. I'm keeping it to. There's also a lot to like in what he is brought to this team and again he is certainly outpaced my expectations at the time that the bucks acquired him because you know again I'm going to point to what we're looking at here just in terms of his offensive efficiency. You look at that stint with the loss of his strong performance. So I'm going to be turning over rate just under 15%. Points created, created a

10:04per shot attempt. So in other words, if you gave Kevin Porter Jr. 100 shots, how many points are you going to get from that? 94.9 right 13th percentile. That's where he was with the clippers and then you see how much he jumped with the box to go from 94.9 to 123.8 in that point. So if you look at that point, you can see that he's going to get into the free through line. He does a great job of rebounding for his position, creating turnovers and even the assist rate to a percentage of field goals that he's assisting on. He is much more adept to be a quote unquote point guard than I think Ryan Rowland. So there is a lot of positives that he is bringing. For me, I just want to say that I'm going to get into a few additional thoughts on that. You can see the the cap and the salary situation for KPJ on the screen as well. And then some of the league adjusted numbers I want

11:04to get into because when we are critical. I'm usually referencing something like this. And I think these numbers are drawing and should tell a rather significant story. So we'll get into that coming up next week. So let's go ahead and see what we're going to do. Support for today's episode comes from square. The system powering so many of the places we already know and love. So whether you're running a pack game day spot, a local restaurant or growing business square give sellers the tools to run their business without making things more complicated. Square brings payments, inventory and a local spot. And then we'll get into the market. So if you're a one location business or growing into multiple locations, square gives you the tools to sell, manage and grow without needing an IT team to figure it all out. There's something I appreciate

12:04about the local spots that can handle like a huge game day crowd without everything feeling chaotic in the process. Quick checkouts, easy payments and everything running smoothly. That's where a lot of people are going to get their tools. Square helps you sell, manage and grow without slowing down. Right now you can get up to $200 off square hardware at square.com slash go slash NBA. That is squr. Ar e dot com slash geo slash NBA. Run your business smarter with square. Get started today. Hey sports fans. It's JD, the host of Lockdown Cardinals. And did you get it? I think it's a big big deal. But you know, when you earn cash back on every day purchases, activate and earn 5% cash back in different categories each quarter on up to $1500 in purchases. That's 5% cash back at different places each quarter like grocery stores on gas and at restaurants. It pays to

13:05discover terms apply. See you. You know, I think you know what I mean, numbers can yield. Um I mean. When you look at this so just to explain it for those that don't know. That number you really want to get to 100 if you get to 100 it's league average. So anything below 100. You're below league average and you can see basically how average. So throughout his career in terms of efficiency, he has been a slightly below league average player. Field goal percentage, 2.0 percentage, 3.0 percentage. And again, you could see that stint with the clippers and just how far below league average, he was their effective field goal percentage. The one area that

14:05he has really excelled that and outpaced league average is his free throw percentage and the rate in which he gets to the free throw line. And those are very important things. I'm not trying to say they're not. The rest of it to me is what the concern is that even last year for how good he was and I think he was very good when he was healthy. By the numbers, he was basically a league average player. If not slightly below. And I think that's a fair critique to bring up because again, the idea of having these conversations around these players is not about personal biases. It's about what you're seeing on the court, which aspects of basketball you tend to look for as being like, hey, the most positive thing. And I completely understand all of that because you can look at those numbers and be like, well, that makes sense. Given what people say about Kevin Porter Jr. normally, which is like, hey, sometimes he can be a bit of a chucker. They question if he is a young player. So there is some room

15:05to grow like even looking at like the assist the assist rate form and just how that changed over time because an area weakness form has been turnovers. Like that has been an area for him where the assist are great. I see that he is developing in that area this past year in Milwaukee although he didn't play as many games was the best year that he's had in a setting up his teammates for success. But he did average, you know, 9.2 turnovers per game last season. And when he was in Houston, and just like at the per game numbers, because you can see the league adjusted numbers on the screen here if you're watching on YouTube. But him averaging 2.9 turnovers per game with the bugs last year, where the most since he had that three years standing Houston where he averaged 3.5, 3.1 and then 3.2 assist for or turnovers per game there. And yes, when you have a ball handler who is going to have the ball in his hands as much naturally, turnovers are going to happen. But with Kevin Porter Jr. in addition to the turnovers,

16:05those possessions cannot end in difficult or low efficiency shots in addition to the fact that at times he can turn the ball over. So for KPJ, if he can continue to clean that area up with the turnovers, work on his shot selection and then also get the efficiency back up, you're talking about a really really high upside swing here because those were the main things that I wrote down in areas of improvement for him. The three point shooting, the shot selection, the turnovers and also just noted that even defensively, I want to see him be just more consistently engaged on that end because I believe he is capable of making plays the fact that he averaged 2.2 steals per game. Like you can see he has an ability with generating steals and had he been able to be you know, calculated for league leaders, he would have led the league in steals per game. One of three players to have at least two steals per game with a saw Thompson and Dyson Dane was also having two steals per game.

17:05He has a six nine wing span. So I feel like there is potential for him on that side of the ball. But like there is a difference in being able to generate steals and then being a consistently reliable defender at the same time. So if Kevin Porter Jr can figure that part out. If Taylor Jenkins can help unlock even more defensively from him, he cleans up those turnovers, the shot selection changes a bit and the efficiency goes up for him, especially just taking the open looks because there were points last season where it just felt like he had the open three and he just refused to shoot it and you can't have that. Especially if he's going to be a lead ball hindriller for the team where if you are doing picking real actions, you don't want the defender to know like I can just continue to go under this green every single time because we don't really care about that shot. And more than anything, we dare him to shoot the shot. So that's something that he is going to have to approve. I think in order to be a player that you look like or look at and say like, hey, I think he might be able to stay

18:05around for whatever this next addition of Bugs basketball is because the interest of thing about us having these conversations in these player previews is that the lens in which we look through it is a lot different than what we have been looking at it before. Like the Bugs don't have Yannis anymore. That's a huge organizational shift. This is not a team that is now evaluating players based on how they can complement Yannis. This is now a team that is trying to figure out who belongs in the next championship window not trying to actually maximize a current championship window. So those are questions that Kevin Pouredinger is going to have to be able to answer and put on tape because ultimately I do think this upcoming game is going to be a lot of things that we're going to be able to answer. So I think we're going to be able to collect all the data on what these players can do. And those are the areas for KPJ in particular that we mentioned up areas to improve where I'm really going to be paying attention to what he looks

19:05like on the court. The steals rate again. You mentioned to Sart Thompson. I mean, he's I think he was at a 3% steals rate, which is basically a 3% steal rate. I think he has it in him to not be like an all defense caliber player. But to be, you know, maybe like a level 2 levels below that where it's at least positionally, it's guys really solid, right? We have no questions there. It's just a matter of getting that routinely and consistently. And then again, I just I come back to the shot diet and cleaning. Yeah, that's important. I don't like cleaning it up. I suppose it might sound a little harsh. But like, look, if you don't want to take 3s and if this part of your game is just gone now, then put pressure on the rim. Like I need to reduce some of those mid-ringers and get you into the paint and get you going downhill and attacking the rim because he right now, I think he and Bradenburys are going to be the two guys that are tops in terms of

20:05percentage of their shots that are coming out the rim. But I need to see an increase for Kevin and Paul Porter Jr. And again, he was excellent in that 30-game stint with the bucks when he first came over at the trade deadline two seasons ago. Far, far better than any of us anticipated you be, he was excellent. He was very good last season. Injuries were a part of it. And that's the other kind of thing that we need to keep an eye on is when you look through the games played throughout his career. He had one year where he basically played the entire season and hit what would have been the qualification and played 75 games. That was his first year of the books when he split it between the bucks and the clippers and played 30 with the bucks, 45 with the clippers. Other than that, 50, 26, 61, 59, 75 then, but 38. And even if you want to say, well, they shot him down and there were shutting guys down last year,

21:05fine, that is fair. And that's what we're looking at for games played. So like that's the other thing. We at least have to acknowledge and say, is this an issue? Like do we just, is he one of those guys that we say we're going to get him for 55 to 60 games and that's it. And that's kind of where he's at. But yeah, again, I think we need to point out where as good as he was two years ago and last year in an injury shortened season to level set, you know, as we've talked about with this team. Like, yeah, very good. And I think a lot of that was our expectations coming in. But again, what did it actually add and how did it compare to the league averages there where first, excellent as he was at first, and that's the only time in his career that for those 30 games, he was better than league average offensively and he was contributing. And he's been a league average efficiency player.

22:05So that is the other thing that needs to, when we talk about cleanup of the shot diet, that's why. Like if you can get Kevin Porter Jr. above league average and I think the way you do that is reintroduce threes and continue to put pressure on the rim if he's doing that and better than league average offensively and giving you those things, rebounding the basketball forcing turnover and then the other thing, the one that I'm going to give you is the Chimney Townsend in the basketball forcing turnovers. That changes the trajectory for him immensely. Before we do move on to the question, last thing to just get to here, this is per 36 numbers throughout his career. And, I mean, again, at per 36, this kind of speaks to what we just went through with the league average numbers. Per 36, he's basically an 18, 19 points per game score. That is very much average two-guard point guard type player. I do believe he can get slightly past that, right?

23:07Cleaning up where some of those shots are coming from and leaning into some of those positives. But again, like the discourse that has gone on around him, we need to level set with statistically speaking where he is actually sat throughout his career. And I guess that brings me to the next question that will offer us to hit before we get into the what if, which is just around the best utilization of them, the ideal role for Kevin Porter Jr. on the 2026, 27 bucks team. Because again, it's a very different context to this team than what we have seen in the past years with him on the roster. So just discussing best ways to use him, his ideal role, and then our big what if question about him for this upcoming season. So the usage we will quickly touch on coming up next. And then the question that we have for Kevin Porter Jr. coming up after this. Come on in, gather around and welcome to your most rewarding NFL season ever.

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25:11Hey sports fans, it's JD, the host of Lockdown Cardinals. And did you know with the Discover Cashback card, it's payback time when you earn cashback on everyday purchases. Activate and earn 5% cashback in different categories each quarter on up to $1,500 in purchases. That's 5% cashback at different places each quarter like grocery stores on gas and at restaurants. It pays to discover terms apply. See Discover dot com slash five four to tails. So, I mean, I can kind of go back and forth on this. I deal role and usage for him in my mind is your sixth man is the guy that is leading the bench offensively and kind of giving you the shot in the arm there. I, I mean, I think the roster has changed so much that even kind of going through. Oh, this is what it looked like when he played with Ryan Rollins. I just think we're beyond that and that you have so many guards on the roster now that I would much rather position one as a starter or one as a bench guy.

26:25And there will be some moments of overlap through the game. But that's where I kind of land. And so, I, one hesitation is I just wonder if that's the role that you carve out for him and say, you're our sixth man. And I like, I think Kevin Porter Jr. could be the sixth man of the year if he leans into his strengths and that's the role that he has. But if you're tasking him with juicing the offense for the bench and carrying that second unit, are we just going to see a lot of like the comfort zone for him and a lot more of the stuff we said. I would like to see you reduce some of that and lean into this instead. Yeah, I think that's a great question asked to because when I think about K.P. J. and Rohe can play like I do think of him as kind of like that that six man and that's been the question a lot that I've been getting is like why do you look at him as a six man rather than the starting point guard. But for me, when thinking about what the bug starting lineup is going to be the only thing I feel like really, really sure about is that Tyler hero is going to start.

27:26And as Tyler hero is going to be your starting shooting guard, I just personally feel as if Ryan Rollins skill set pairs a little bit better with Tyler hero on what he can give you. And if you do have your Tyler hero in your starting lineup to be able to bring a Kevin Porter junior off the bench to be able to provide that offensive firepower to be that lead guard for that unit, I think is really important. And I also want to say that even if he does not start, I don't think that means he won't close games from time to time as well. Because I do think there is some interesting line of things you can do with Kevin Porter junior depending on what the situation could be for them. And I know that coming to the season if he is projected to be a six man, it's a change in what he was expecting a year ago when he was walking in as a starter with a really big role and expectations of him. But I don't think that him coming off the bench would mean that he's not an important player or could be important to what they're doing. I think that he just naturally pairs a little bit worse with Tyler hero. And the only thing I feel really comfortable about is like I think hero is going to start.

28:30And also I do think the idea of a Kevin Porter junior Brayton Burries combo off the bench works really, really well with the skills that could be. And I mean, I would. We'll get into it when we get to the players. I at this point, I feel like Jaime Hawkeyes is going to start. If for no other reason, then just kind of the awkwardness of the Bucks roster, but that's another name. Like if you have those guys coming off the bench in high May and KPJ and Brayton Burries, like you are going to do a lot of running and getting down hill and putting pressure on the rim. So it brings us to the what if for Kevin Porter junior. What if he becomes a three point shooter again, you know, what if he leans into that. And I'm not asking for Kevin Porter junior to become Steph Curry. He attempted just under four threes per game last season.

29:31That was up rather significantly from the previous season. But again, taking his rookie season out of it when he was in Houston and basically flipped the keys and it was a very bad team. It wasn't the greatest coaching situation, but just told all right, just go do it. You be the guy. He was not a high, high volume, but a much higher volume three point shooter where it sat around like seven attempts per game. And he was the final two years, 38% and 37% shooter. And then he just came back from playing overseas and said, I'm not doing it anymore. You know, if that three point eight number can get up to five. And instead of 32% he shot 41% of those 30 games with the box. If you can be a 35 36% shooter there. And again, given his time in Houston, I have no reason to believe he cannot be. Just give me that much more. Give me two more attempts per game, two fewer of those mid range attempts.

30:35And what does that mean for him? I think what it means is what we spent the start of the show going over in terms of his offensive efficiency and what that'll do for him. And again, if he's a bench guy, I think he's in strong consideration for six man of the year. If that's the way he's playing offensively and leaning into his rebounding and and steals defensively strengths. Yeah, honestly, if Kevin Porter Jr. becomes a three point shooter again. My honest first reaction to that is he needs to be in consideration to start next to hero. Because if he is able to knock down those shots when he is playing off ball next to hero, then it gets as a different dynamic to that offense. And that's just so much more to what you have to try to defend him from doing because you already know he's a downhill threat. He's going to put pressure on the rent. You know he's comfortable pulling up in the mid range, whether that's a shot defenses want him to take or not. It is something that he's comfortable with. And over the last two years, he's hit it at a considerable clip. This is assuming it doesn't fall off a cliff form.

31:39And also adding the three points shooting with it. You now have somebody who when he is off ball, he is a threat when he does have the bond his hands defenses. You can't just play him one way because if that's part of his game, he already gives you more positional size than Rollins. If you do start them next to hero being six five over Rollins being six three gives you a little bit more playmaking. He gives you the rebounding at the position. And we've heard the team talk about how important positional size is for them. So I think of that three point shot is real for Kevin Porter Jr. Then I think I the baits already a debate between him or Rollins starting. But I think if the three point shot is there for him, it makes that debate even tighter between the two because if he's knocking down the three at a high clip, like it's it's it's he's a tough player to stop offensively. I mean, I don't want to spend too much time on this since we're focusing on specifically specifically Kevin Porter Jr. But do you see a scenario where both players are on the team next season.

32:41Him and Rollins. I think it's possible because I do not you don't they are both expiring contracts positional overlap. They're both expiring contracts. You're going to pick to pay one of them. And that's why it is going to be fascinating to see who starts because whoever doesn't may not be all that enthuse to stay here as a free agent next. That's fair. It depends on the buy into and what they're selling here for those guys. So it depends in what the number would be what they're looking for at that point in their career. Rollins especially because he is a bit younger. I would think he is coming in trying to get that starting spot, but it's going to be a debate all the way through for for these two guys until the season starts and even that's one of the training camp battles just the guard room in general where it's like that's going to be like a bloodbath of a positional battle to make it onto the court because there are so many options, but KPJ is going to make it tough on any other guards that are coming in trying to take his minutes. I know that for sure.

33:41Yeah, I mean, I think the high end low end that we did for the team itself. I think the high end is Kevin Porter, junior wins the sixth man of the year this upcoming season. I think the low end is injuries become the story again. And then it just The larger story then leads to well, what what is his long term fit here and are we choosing between he and Rollins and how much does that factor into on the court happiness. I think that would be the low end for me this season. Yeah, I would probably agree with I think high end would be six man of the year because even if he started. Yeah, I don't think that there are like any major award categories that I would like say like you know Kevin Porter, junior's in the running for. But like if you base the season off success of like hey, he can get this hardware. I do think six man of the year would be something on the table for him and his play style because we know six man of the year normally does go to more. Yeah, and he can he can definitely put some flash plays on tape. So I think that's a really fair one for him. I think low end would just be.

34:46I think under like 40 games play. I think if it's one of those seasons again for him where he's not active in addition to that he seems like the whole team the vibe around the team in general feels really good right now. So it does feel like regardless of what role they get placed in. I think there's going to be competition naturally. Of course, I don't want to stay here. But I'm not going to also cause a problem in the meantime because I don't have that role. That's my hope at least for the team. So I would think high end. Either a starter or six man of the year low end probably not many games play the three point shot doesn't come form him and the turnovers. I think another part of the game for him where if that's another area where it isn't cleaned up for him, especially based on some of the things that I think Taylor Jenkins is going to want to do. I think that could also lead to a reduction in playing time for him. I mean, he's a guy that the coaching staff does if I think and trust to put on the court. But I wouldn't expect it to go that way. I think I would probably find somewhere in the middle where he is a productive like offensive option for this team this season, whether it is coming off the bench or spot starts or whatever the case might be for him.

35:57I do think he will be very productive for them this season as well that I think overall it is we're going to look back on it and say it was a good season for Kevin Porter Jr. So that's KPJ have at it. Leave your thoughts on now what you think we got wrong and I'm sure how we were too critical on him. But that's our expectations form and again, the biggest thing is the areas that I would like to see some movement and some improvement on from Kevin Porter Jr. So we will continue our series on the box of 26 27 from here on out all the way up until media day. For those of you listening on the podcast, we encourage you to seek out locked on NBA for your second listen if you're on YouTube, that's what we're going to send you off to now the first ever 24 7 national NBA YouTube show getting you set for the upcoming season, which is now less than six seven weeks away.

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