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Shortly after the close of the U.S. stock market on Friday, President Donald J. Trump
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appeared to try to address the losses it had sustained since his February 28th attack
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on Iran by posting that the war was winding down.
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This reassurance appeared designed to calm market fears over the weekend.
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But then, at 7.44 a.m., Trump posted,
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if Iran doesn't fully open without threat, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 hours from
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this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various
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power plants, starting with the biggest one first.
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Thank you for your attention to this matter, President Donald J. Trump.
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Aside from the fact that attacking civilian infrastructure is a war crime, this threat against
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Middle East oil infrastructure made the market teeter again, especially after Iran threatened
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to strike power plants in Israel and other Gulf states.
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Then, at 7.23 this morning, Trump posted,
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I am pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have had,
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over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and
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total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.
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Based on the tenor and tone of these in-depth, detailed and constructive conversations,
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which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone
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any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure
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for a five-day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.
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Thank you for your attention to this matter, President Donald J. Trump.
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The five-day period in which Trump promised to hold off on this particular threat,
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the war itself continues, coincides with the days the stock market is open.
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According to the Cobecy Letter, which analyzes the stock market, the S&P 500 surged upward by
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240 points. The price of Brent crude oil dropped to $96 a barrel.
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Then, Iran denied Trump's claims and said its leaders had had no direct or indirect contact.
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With Trump's people, Iran's foreign ministry suggested Trump was trying to reduce energy
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prices and to buy time for implementing his military plans. It said that countries in the region
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had approached Iran to begin negotiations and that our response to all of them is clear.
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We are not the party that started this war and all such requests should be directed to Washington.
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The S&P fell 120 points and the price of Brent crude rose to about $100 a barrel.
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What is happening here? Wrote Adam Cobecy about the stock market in his newsletter.
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The answer to which social media posters jumped was market manipulation.
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Economist Paul Krugman suggested the same in a post today, noting that someone who had
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insider knowledge could have sold a bunch of crude oil futures at very high prices. Brent
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was over $112 over the weekend, then bought them back immediately after Trump's announcement
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of triumphal progress. But before the Iranians said that is not happening and you could have turned
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a very, very nice, very large profit. Indeed, by the end of the day, reporters like Yun Lee
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at CNBC noted that about 15 minutes before Trump's announcement, there had been a sudden and sharp
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jump in S&P 500 futures and oil futures. Krugman had other observations as well, though.
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Trump threatened to commit a massive war crime by striking civilian energy facilities
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and must be looking for a way out. Krugman noted that there is no apparent reason for
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Iranian leaders to be making a deal right now. It seems pretty clear that attracting the war
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constitutes winning in the metric of humiliating the US. Krugman goes on to make a major point.
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Think about how much America's position in the world has been weakened, not just by a parent
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failure to subdue a fourth rate power, but by the fact that everybody now knows that you cannot
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trust anything. Cannot trust any promises the United States makes. You cannot count on the United
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States carrying through with promises, with threats, not just promises, but threats are also
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incredible in the sense of not being all credible, and that the default assumption should be
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that anything that this administration says is a lie.
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Trump doubled down on his post this morning when he talked to reporters at Palm Beach International
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Airport, seeming to see an off-ramp from the conflict. He claimed that his middle-east
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envoy, Steve Whitkopf, is speaking with a top person in Iran. The man who, I believe,
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is the most respected and the leader, not the supreme leader, but the people that seem to be running
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Iran. Barack Reved of Axios later reported that Whitkopf and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner,
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both freelancers who have financial ties to the Middle East, rather than the US Secretary of State
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Marco Rubio, have sent messages to the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohamed Bogger Galibov,
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through Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey, where intermediaries are trying to set up a call between
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US and Iranian negotiators. Galibov is a close associate of Iran's new supreme leader, Moktaba
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Khomeini. Trump seemed to consider that plan a done deal, and said the US and Iranian negotiators
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would talk today by phone. He continued, will at some point very soon meet. We're doing a five-day
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period. We'll see how that goes, and if it goes well, we're going to end up with settling this.
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Otherwise, we just keep bombing our little hearts out.
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Caitlin Collins of CNN asked Trump, you said there's many points of agreement with Iran right now.
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Can you give us a few of them? He answered many, like 15 points, 15 points.
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Colin followed up that Iran has said yes to. Trump replied, whether or not going to have a nuclear
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weapon, that's number one. That's number one, two, and three. They will never have a nuclear weapon.
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Collins asked, they've said yes to that. Trump replied, they've agreed to that.
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When another reporter asked if Iran has agreed to no enrichment whatsoever, even for medical purposes,
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civilian purposes, Trump answered, they have. Then Collins asked, what about the
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Strait of Hormuz? Who's going to be in control of that? Trump answered, that'll be opened very soon
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if this works. To questions of how soon, he responded immediately. Asked who would control the
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Strait, he answered, it'll be jointly controlled. By who, Collins asked, maybe me, maybe me,
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Trump said, not the United States or an international coalition, but me and the Iatola,
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whoever the Iatola is, and there'll also be a very serious form of regime change. Now in
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all fairness, everybody's been killed from the regime, but we're dealing with some people that I
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find to be very reasonable, very solid. The people within know who they are. They're very respected,
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and maybe one of them will be exactly what we're looking for. Look at Venezuela, how well that's
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working out. We're doing so well in Venezuela with oil and with the relationship between the President
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elect and us, and maybe we find someone like that in Iran. Today at the Palm Beach Airport,
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a reporter asked Trump, if the war is ending, do you still need $200 billion? Trump answered,
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we, uh, it's always nice to have. It's always nice to have. It's a very inflamed world.
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Letters from an American was written and read by Heather Cox Richardson. It was produced at
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Soundscape Productions, Dead and Massachusetts, recorded with music composed by Michael Moss.