What's going on with the BC Conservatives, Preparing kids for back-2-school & Bank of Canada holds key interest rate

0:00This is the morning with Simea podcast. Scott Johnson for Simea Thursday morning September the third today and what a day for the BC Conservatives yesterday make it nine two more MLA's left the caucus citing Carolyn Finley's leadership as one of the main reasons that makes nine count of nine MLA's to have quit that reason. Here to help us unpack the mess that is this situation and where the BC Conservatives go from here is David Black, a faculty member in the School of Communication and Culture at Royal Roads University. Thanks for joining us again David. How are you this morning? Oh, very good Scott. Why to be here. So yesterday was a huge day in provincial politics. Are you at all surprised anymore when we get announcements or news that yet another person has left the BC Conservatives?

1:00No, I mean for all kinds of reasons, notably ideological reasons and ideology is the great accelerant in terms of making change in politics. You know, the fact that we had not one but two MLA's weak caucus yesterday. You know, this represents how how deep this function is in BC Conservatives, how how deep the fractures are between the social, the cultural and the fiscal conservatives. This is a party whose own crisis is kind of mirroring a larger crisis within the Conservatives movement in general, but it's really been brought home in a particularly intensive way here in in BC. So yes, Donnagle Wilson and Scott McKinnis, the two MLA's that announced that they would be leaving the party and sit as independence yesterday. How do you feel that conservative voters are reacting to this? A lot of people voted for Carolyn and the two MLA's. Only one, the leadership of the BC Conservatives and now people are

2:00seeing this collapse for lack of a better term. People that may have voted for her. How do you think they're feeling this morning? Well, I think I think one of the MLA's who left caucus yesterday and joined the now if we add Eleanor Sturco, 10 kind of eligible independent MLA's in the ledge, putting aside the two one BC MLA's and the two that are like digital press cur als campaigning acted fairly ré叫 a word for that. history really. And what voters who, you know, sorry, party members voted in leadership election in May are now looking at are two very well-defined

3:01choices. You know, the, in some sense, the return of, you know, the BC liberals with these 10 independent MLAs, most of whom are physically conservative, but not socially or culturally conservative, and now with this much smaller BC conservative caucus, you know, increasingly proportionately very conservative group of MLAs. The question is where, you know, a Trevor Halford or Gavin Dew or some of the other moderate scope, but they have very two very well-defined choices now for, you know, conservative leading voters who either like their conservators in its fiscal form or want MLAs, sort of going to press on on cultural social issues. You mentioned that this is sort of a prelude to something bigger happening in the conservative movement and in conservative politics across Canada. Let's talk about that a little more. I spoke with Jazz Joe Hall this morning. He had both MLAs that quit yesterday on his show, and he mentioned that they were sort of talking

4:05about the need for more, more of the fiscal economic move that like this idea of people voting along ideological lines, it just isn't working and Canadians want fiscal, responsible conservatives, but we're not as like impassioned by these social issues. What do you think the conservative party and conservative politicians need to do to become more relevant to Canadians? Yeah, a couple things. I mean, you know, talking about ideology can seem very kind of academic and wonky and you don't typically focus on it, but I think it's just sleeper factors here and not just in BC, but for the conservative movement in Canada and worldwide. And simple things are happening. The free enterprise coalition, you know, was always a kind of awkward but still very effective coalition of fiscal and social conservatives. The so-called and then the BC liberals created that big tent, pitched it at the center and made room for people who just wanted the government to run, you know, in a responsible

5:09way and both you had social and even cultural causes they wanted to explore. The new factor that's been added here is this is the cultural right, this new cultural populism on the right. It's kind of an echo of what some argue is kind of wokeism on the left, but it defines the problem, it defines the political project as not simply getting policy across the line and winning power, but changing the broader culture and undoing a kind of slow motion, you know, kind of lowercase liberalization of Canadian and Western culture going back gosh to women's suffrage, you know, at the turn of the last century. So it's a big political project, it's one that's very divisive and I think it leaves a lot of, you know, more kind of physically conservative, you know, kind of socially moderate, MLA's cold. It's just not the fight they signed up to fight. In spite of all that we've seen happen over the last three weeks, a lot of people are saying that this is far from over. There still could be more fractures within the BC conservative party.

6:13I mean, we've talked a lot about what happens with Pierre Poliev and the federal conservative party. What do you think happens next? Is this, are we at the midpoint here? Are we close to the beginning, close to the end? And I mean, I know that those are, you know, subjective terms, but what do you think happens next? Yeah, well, any number of things because we're in this period of kind of radical uncertainty with respect obviously to the conservative party, but also to what might happen in the legislature. You know, we have, first of all, you know, on the 26th, a bi-election in which Carolyn Finley, the current leader of BC Conserves, may well lose a writing that she would otherwise normally win and that'll year would often be, you know, given that writing in which to kind of, that would save for her, him and, you know, and kind of enter the legislature. So if she does lose an efforts for admission, as is possibly the case, and especially if Mike DeYoung runs, which is rumored, splitting the, you know, the federal right road even further, you're going to have a BC conservative party with no leader in the house and, and they'll hope

7:16of finding one anytime soon. And you're going to have an, it's this, uh, Pierre Millibar, last night on CBC's power and politics, CBC TV, saying that they will have a new centrist party on October 5th in the, in the house, uh, taking the fight to, to David E.B. And so, you know, we're just looking at it at a legislature where in fact, the fiscal conservatives are kind of running the show. They may not be the official opposition, but they will be the most organized and most vocal, uh, you know, putting the, you know, the case to the, to government. David Black is a faculty member in the School of Communication and Culture at Royal Roads University. Thanks so much for your time this morning. It's always great to have you on. And obviously, a very interesting and ongoing conversation. I'm sure we'll get the chance to speak again. Thank you, Jessica. All right. All the best. Scott at CKNW.com, if you want to weigh in on that, I think that that's kind of what's emerging here, right? Is this idea that socially, like, let's move on. No one wants to have these discussions about, uh, things like Soji and,

8:20I don't know, like gay rights, these type of rainbow crosswalks, whatever these things are. Those are a couple examples that have been brought up. People want conservative fiscal politics. And they want to let people just live their lives. We want a stronger economy, uh, that serves all Canadians and then to let Canadians sort of do what they want to do within that. At least that's my interpretation of sort of what's going on. But I'd love to know your thoughts. Where are the most important issues to you in a political leader? The most important qualities in characteristics. Scott at CKNW.com. Almost Labor Day weekend and then boom, kids back to school. And this is a time of year that for a lot of kids, they get anxious. It's a new classroom, new teacher who's going to be, uh, in their, in their, you know, at their desk at their cohort. Who's, who their teacher's going to be. There's a lot of anxiety that comes along with that. And it feels like anxiety is increasing

9:21for kids here to talk us through how to manage some of that. It's Todd Cunningham, Associate Professor in the teaching stream at the University of Toronto. Thanks so much for being here, Professor Cunningham. How are you? I'm doing well this morning, Scott. Thanks for having me. Yeah, absolutely. Do you think that this issue of anxiety for kids around back to school is growing or has been growing or is that just my perception? No, anxiety in general in our youth in kids in youth is definitely growing. So it's not just your perception. There's some really hard data on that. So what we have to do as parents is we have to anticipate that. We know where kids we see, anything's going on. We know who they are. So we have to anticipate that there's going to be some angst, especially on the first day. Anytime we have transitions, we increase our worries, as you mentioned, it's the unknown. Who am I going to be with? What's my teacher going to be like? Am I wearing the right stuff this year? So there's a lot of worries that begin to happen at this

10:21time of year as we get ready for this major transition. And so how can we help our kids through that? Yeah, so we have to first anticipate it. Know that it's coming up. So we have to open up the conversation. Most kids in youth, they don't kind of come to us and they just like start to build their guts. You know, we have to we have to ask them, how are you feeling? Why are you thinking about this? And then you have to be able to listen. And that's when the hardest thing for parents, we like to be problem solvers. We want to kind of save our kids from feeling anxious. We want to swoop in and protect them. But we need to be able to open up a safe place where they can actually express how they're feeling and we have to kind of respond and acknowledge that. Yeah, I would be worried too. Not knowing who I'm going to be sitting with. And I yeah, last year was a hard year. And after we hear that, then is the time to start to kind of help them think about what are some kind of solutions that we can work together for a lot of kids. You know, you can even like roll places up younger kids. You know, how do I greet a friend at the beginning, you know,

11:26on the first day, how do you introduce myself to you and say, Hey, my name's Todd, do you want to play? Just do some stuff like that so they can actually start to kind of work through, have some ideas of what they can do to be able to manage that situation is really important. And what about for educators, you know, teachers who are dealing with these anxious students and like we've discussed more and more anxious students who are coming into the classroom. I can't imagine this is an easy time for teachers either. No, it's not. Teachers have a lot on their place these days. And, you know, I think again, one of the first things is to create that safe environment. Really to take the first couple of days, nope, increase the academic process, but really to get to know them, go around and get to know your students, learn their names, greet them up the doorways, find the things that they have liked to do. Do all those good things that teachers naturally do to build up those relationships with their students. If you had young students,

12:29take them for the school to see what the schools like. You know, meet the principal. Do things to help them to start to acclimatize to the building, to the classroom, to get to know each other. To know their fellow students, you know, doing those great icebreaker games and then slowly build up the academics over the next couple of days as those routines start to kind of get solidified for the kids. Okay, now all of this sounds well and good. And I am a parent. I have two girls, young girls going back to school into grade five and grade one. And I'm aware that there is like, I would say like a normal amount of anxiety. And of course, I want to do whatever I can to alleviate that and to support them. But then I also worry that perhaps I'm doing damage by not helping them feel it out on their own. Like I guess the term is helicopter parenting, right? That I'm doing too much. How do parents balance that? Well, again, that's where we have to check our emotions where we're not obligated to do it. So, you know, it's important for us to open

13:32the conversation, to listen to them and then have work with them in coming up to solution. But at the same time, we're not going to do everything. So like, you know, with your both of them, you know, start to help them plan on what clothes are going to do. You know, talk about these things. We're the first thing. Let's get those things out. Help them to start thinking about lunches, get them maybe to build their make their own lunches and get into those routines. And we can start getting those routines now, like especially, you know, getting those time going to bed at a more decent time, waking up at a more appropriate time. You know, in my house, we are staying up way too late. And so the conversation's already happened. Okay, Friday night. We're going to start to get back into the school routines that start getting practicing those routines now to do it. But in the end, we need to be there to hear their feelings. We're not there to rescue them from their feelings, but we need to help them to think through and come up with solutions on how they can deal. They're very resilient people. I think one thing that we never give our kids enough

14:34credit for is they're very resilient. And we are there to help support them through those worries that they're running into. And now, Professor Gunning-Ham, you mentioned that kids are not necessarily going to come up to parents and say, hey, I'm feeling anxious about back to school. What are some signs that parents could look for or be aware of that maybe they need to open this conversation up with their kids? Yeah, so usually it's a change in the behavior. So usually kids will either become more quiet, more distant, will start crying more easily, or they become more irritable, they're harder to deal with, they become angry, quicker. So often you see a change in behavior that happens. And then again, that's normal. Coming up to transitions, we often see those hearings as they're worrying about those things happening. Another good time to check in with kids is when you clean them to bed at night. When you're laying there in bed, you're laying down often what happens for all of us. We start to think about those worries that are on our mind. And bedtime is a

15:35wonderful time to check in and hear what is going on in their lives. What are they thinking about? And yes, you might not want to be up all night talking about this. These don't have any long conversations, but it's enough to say, oh, I hear it. Professor said a little bit through with them and say, hey, let's talk more about that tomorrow. The key thing with anxious kids is they want to have a plan. They want to be knowing that there is things that they can do to help to mitigate that. And part of my piece is, hey, let's meet with your teacher or let's talk with your teacher on the first day. Or here's a nice object to have from home. It's wonderful. It's stressful or something like that that you can have to know that we're thinking of you when you're at school. And the end, we always tell them we know that you can do this. You got this, buddy. You can do this and we'll be here and we're going to be so excited on that first day when you get home to hear all about what happened, the goods and the bags. Todd Gunningham is an associate professor in the teaching

16:35stream at University of Toronto. Thanks for your time this morning and some really great advice there. Appreciate it. Good morning, Scott Shunz in for Simmy this week. It's Thursday, September the 3rd. Today, lots of talks still around trade tariffs and economics. Where's your money going? How much is life going to cost? Should you be saving? Can you even save? We got the news yesterday that the Bank of Canada to, I think mostly no one's surprised, is holding their key interest rate at 2.25%. So what does that mean for you and your mortgage and the interest that you pay on your loans? Here to help us understand is Brian, you Chief Economist, at Central One Credit Union. Thanks so much for being here. Brian, how are you? Good, thanks. Thanks, Henry. What does it mean that the Bank of Canada decided to hold its key interest rate at 2.25%. Well, I think that was kind of foregone conclusion in terms of the overall decision, to keep it steady. It's really just a function of the fact that there are a lot

17:41of risks right now in you economy, whether it's the oil price risks from that are driving from inflation concerns as well as some strong, relatively strong economic growth, but also that is a lot of some of the headwinds coming from the tariffs that are now in placement of you as potentially more to come when we come talking about January. Now, if they decided to raise or lower the interest rate, what direction is it likely to go in when you think about the potential of more tariffs and economics? Say we want to stimulate the economy, I would think that we would want to lower the interest rate. Do I have that right? Well, I think right now, when you think about the statement from the Bank of Canada, they're really kind of keying in on some of those upside risk student inflation right now from the oil prices. I think that was one of the primary concerns that came across from the bank. There's also the risks from retaliation of Canadian retaliatory tariffs that are also potentially going to be increasing some of the costs for Canadian businesses as well as

18:41consumers. So if the next move we're looking for right now is more likely to be a hike and increase, which we think is going to happen in partway through over the parts of 2027. Although again, we're looking at some of those headwinds from the US tariffs that couldn't damage our economy and also, you know, keep us a little more steady on the rate front. But I think the next move you're going forward is going to be high. And how is all of this going to affect the housing market? We know that that is a major issue for a lot of Canadians. We've seen it really slow down and prices have come down a bit. But how is this interest rate decision going to affect all of that? Well, I think right now for most buyers, at least, no, there's no media effects from the policy hold or the rate hold itself. But what we are watching in sort of the market overall has been a bond yield which have been climbing pretty significantly in the recent months. This is a reflection of some of the US inflation risks as well as our concerns

19:47in the market. And that's putting upward pressure on bond yields, which tends to drive mortgage rates. How mortgage rates are priced? They're on the five-year rates. So right now, the overall condition suggests that rates are pretty firm at this point. Hosing markets, really reflections of some of those borrowing costs, isn't going to see a lot of traction right now unless you start to see a little more strength in some of the labor markets and also the most sentiments and improvements. There's been a lot of talk about the potential of a recession. Is that something that you could see happening in the near or short-term future here in Canada? Well, I think it's pretty unlikely in a short term. I think when we look at the second floor, we have very strong growth, data for 3.3 percent growth. In the Canadian economy, we've been generating jobs in recent months. The tariffs are coming. So we do think that there is a, the tariffs are here. Sorry, we do think that numbers will show a slowdown as we kind of hit into the fourth quarter. But the overall

20:49trends have been positive. I don't think we're in the, and we'll be able to weather anything from the new tariffs. But we'll be that slow down in the economy. What should Canadians be doing with their money right now? Investing it, saving it, should they be stocking up on, we did a story yesterday that we should be stocking up on essential items because the prices of those things are likely to go up. What would you advise Canadians to be doing with their money right now? Well, I think for the most part, we don't provide investments here, but I think it's, you know, holding that course is just keeping out watchful eye, a little more caution. Just recognizing that there are some risks in the economy, whether, and it really kind of depends on what sector people do work in as well. If you are in a trade-oriented sector that are infected with tariffs, you're going to be a little bit more risk of a downturn. And when it comes to other components of investments, for example, you know, the markets all these can do very well. You know, kind of call these things, or is always kind of a muggy day trying to find

21:52other ups or downs towards these markets. So really, I think having that plan in place is just the most you're going to need to have. Brian, you as a chief economist at Central One Credit Union, speaking with us about the Bank of Canada's decision to hold their key interest rate at 2.25%. Thanks so much for your time, Brian. Really appreciate being able to speak with you. Thanks for listening to The Mornings with Simmy Podcast. Don't forget to subscribe to the show on Apple, Spotify, Amazon, Google Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can always listen to us live in The Morning Monday to Friday from 5.30 to 9 on 7.30 CKNW.