What's the common thread in Israel's wars in Iran and Lebanon

This is the scene in Beirut early on Saturday.

Locals reported at least seven Israeli strikes in a neighborhood of the Lebanese capital seen as a stronghold of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia.

Israel has repeatedly called on the population here to leave the area.

More destruction further south in the city of Tyre.

The Lebanese National News Agency, NNA, reported extensive destruction of homes and shops there.

Reports say the city, which is normally home to 100,000 people, is largely deserted now.

The Israeli army says it has hit three and a half thousand targets in Lebanon since it started responding to rocket fire from Hezbollah.

Israel has come under further rockets and missile attack from Hezbollah and from Iran.

Here, a missile is intercepted on the outskirts of Jerusalem.

And emergency services responded to a missile strike in the central city of Bani-Brak.

One man was reported injured.

I'd like to welcome Simon Maibun, Professor of International Politics at the School of Global Affairs at Lancaster University.

Professor, it's good to see you.

Thank you for having me.

Our report ended with mention of a missile hitting central Israel.

Despite its sophisticated air defense, we've definitely been seeing more reports of missiles hitting Israel.

And there are concerns about shortages of interceptor missiles. Should Israelis be worried?

Well, I think that whenever a country is under bombardment and we're having to see the use of interceptor missiles and interceptor technologies and the Iron Dome,

then there is a good reason to be worried.

But I think in light of everything that's been happening over the past five weeks,

we are seeing the number of strikes, direct strikes increasing, though the number of overall strikes decreasing.

And I think that points to an overwhelming pressure that the Iron Dome and other defense systems have been under during this five weeks.

And it hints at the possibility of a reduction in the number of anti-missile interceptors that are available.

But of course, we just don't know exactly what is happening here.

The Israeli military is keeping a lot of this closely under wraps for obvious reasons.

We don't know exactly how many targets have been hit.

The Israeli public is not at liberty to report on exact details.

So we just don't know how many interceptors are left.

And so that makes it difficult to speculate.

But what we do know is that the number of strikes that are hitting Israeli targets is increasing,

even though the number of overall strikes is decreasing.

Without question, we've seen Israel move from a prolonged campaign in Gaza to strikes in Iran.

And now operations in Lebanon again give us some perspective.

Because to many, it looks like a continuous war with no end in sight rather than a series of separate conflicts.

Yeah, I think in part that that paints a picture of the complex nature of geopolitics in the contemporary Middle East.

It paints the picture of how a number of these different arenas have become intertwined and interlinked.

And there are of course complex relationships between what is happening in Gaza with Hamas, for example,

and the Houthis in Yemen and the Islamic Republic through its provision of support for Hamas

and his Balla through its expressions of solidarity for Hamas.

And then we see of course the links between Iran and his Balla dating back to the 1980s,

the formation of his Balla that was achieved through in no small part, through Iranian support for marginalized share groups

who had splinted off from the amount movement.

So there are of course complex relationships that we can start to see between these different arenas of conflict.

But I think to say that this is a big quote-unquote forever war, I think,

would be to oversimplify a lot of the nuance that is playing out within these particular arenas that are shaped by the complexities and contingencies of their own sort of peculiarities,

the ways in which groups and operatives within those arenas are articulating their grievances against Israel or vis-a-vis Israel

and then engaging in armed struggles and violence against Israel.

And this is not just a consequence of a nefarious Iranian puppet master dictating everything that is happening,

but there are localized grievances that are starting to emerge, that are starting to shape the decisions that are being taken.

And so we can see it through that lens of being one long sort of forever war, if you will.

But I think that misses some of the granularity of what is happening in these arenas.

And that makes it an incredibly difficult and complex picture for Israeli strategists to try and fight all these wars all at once.

Samin Maibin, many, many thanks.

Thank you.