What the Iran War Means for Americans

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Welcome to the watch floor.

I'm Sarah Adams.

Right now we're at this interesting and consequential moment.

The US administration chose to take out

Iranians Supreme Leader Ali Komune.

Our objective is to defend the American people

by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.

It's of course led to ripple effects across Iran.

Now, yes, this regime is highly organized,

and of course has plans in place for this,

but it does not mean that they expected it to happen.

And so we have a lot of questions to go through,

and today we're really going to talk about

what the threat picture looks like right now.

But we have to also remember that this regime

for decades has caused harm to Americans.

All the way back to the 1983 marine barracks bombings,

and then other targetings, of course,

across Lebanon at the time,

including against the CIA and other US diplomats.

We had the 1994 AMIA bombings all the way over in Argentina,

right, showing the breadth that they can reach.

We of course had them.

Lots of times tried to do with a hidden hand,

but of course they were involved in what, over 600 deaths

of US service members in Iraq.

We've had from 1979 when they did the first real hostage taking

to today when they still will take Americans

through least dual nationals as hostage and use them

as leverage against our government.

My hostage diplomacy is a really big thing,

and it's brought in amazingly a lot of legitimacy

to the Iranian regime, a lot of money to the Iranian regime,

and it's given them a lot of passes,

especially when it comes to their nuclear enrichment.

So we are entering a new era,

and no one exactly knows what that's going to look like,

especially after we're assuming more layers of leadership

are still set to be killed going forward.

This isn't a government where you can just remove one man.

So there are many unknowns.

What I want to spend time on today, though,

is not guessing what those unknowns might turn out to be

or how government formation might look.

I want to talk about the ways the current regime,

as it is, can vent, right?

They can vent militarily

through their proxies, through cyber operations,

economically, psychologically,

and we're going to walk through what that looks like,

how it maybe has looked in the past,

just so you can be prepared,

because there's so much information coming out

that there's an Iranian sleeper cell

in every corner of this country.

That's not exactly true,

but you do need to understand the entire threat picture

so you can be best prepared and aware

of what could eventually pop off.

So when it comes to a threat assessment,

I want to walk through like each layer.

Of course, the top tier or tier one layer of this,

and the threat that is posed the most

is to, of course, American serving overseas.

First, it's a US military personnel in the Gulf,

then it is anybody who supports their efforts,

who could be defense contractors

and intelligence officers,

then diplomatic staff at US embassies,

because these individuals are the US representatives overseas.

And of course, to a regime like Iran,

they are the same, as hitting like US military targets.

They view it as like an equal retaliation in this event.

And of course, they're most likely to come under target and be concerned.

But we did see guidance even here in the United States

from Northcom, for example,

telling active duty service members,

you know, don't wear uniforms out in public, right?

Maintain a lower profile, and that is important.

Like there's no reason to draw attention to yourself

or to become a target in any way.

You know, when we talk about how things have occurred in the past,

obviously everyone's familiar with some of the limited strikes

that Iran took after we bombed the nuclear program,

this spring.

And then if we go back like five years

when we killed Qasim Soleimani,

they did the same thing,

and they attacked like US bases in Iraq.

And that's really a very similar model

that we've seen over time.

It's calibrated and kinetic.

And that is what we have seen like public facing.

It's because Iran likes to also do things with a hidden hand.

So when they can, they prefer using their proxies

and proxy warfare because they like having plausible deniability

because this isn't just about military action,

it's also about covert influence,

and they need to continue to make us look like the aggressors

and the bad guys,

and that misinformation is important.

So if they look overly aggressive

or if they're being blamed for everything,

you know, it's harder for them to say,

hey, no, the US is the bully in the room, not us, right?

It's a little bit of the game that they've always played.

Now, if you're serving abroad,

and if you have family members serving abroad

because I am seeing a lot of people posting

where they're loved ones serving

and saying they're worried about their safety,

like let's not do that.

You need to be very careful highlighting,

you know, where troops are located,

but of course we do send a visibility,

vary your routes,

and be extra cognizant.

We get lazy sometimes when we're overseas, don't, you know,

get back to, you know, looking for surveillance on your route.

Another thing is you really need to confirm

your emergency action plans.

I've made this joke many times, but it is true

when I was in Benghazi.

We had dozens of people at our base,

and our evacuation plan was literally to put on scuba suits

and swim up to the ocean and catch a boat.

First off, there's only a handful of suits.

Nobody maybe wanted to or scuba certified

because that was from deer in the revolution,

and there was no boat to swim up to, right?

So make sure the plan is up to date

because you would be so surprised that they really aren't.

Another thing is keep physical copies

of the things you need, your documents,

you know, any kind of numbers, medical.

If you need to move quick, if you don't have your device,

you know, that'll come in handy.

You need to have rally points,

especially if your family is with you overseas.

You need to know the different meta-vac routes,

and then you need to stay updated

and in connection with your command.

So what updates and information are coming out,

you're not getting it delayed,

or you're not here in its second hand,

you're getting it when it's put out immediately, right?

Because if there's a duck in cover, right?

You don't want that five minutes late.

So early decisive action saves lives, you know,

it's not perfect action, but it's decisive, right?

You need to put a plan in place,

and you need to do things a little better

than you did them yesterday.

And that's what we're always striving for, right?

Let's get a little better at this,

let's get a little better at this,

because the enemy themselves are also getting better.

Now then the other piece that matters

is of course Americans who are just like living

or working in the Gulf.

So we saw Iran has no problem

just targeting civilian areas in places

that we hadn't even seen them strike before, right?

They started hitting around in the UAE,

near the Burj Khalifa, they struck in a mod, right?

Kind of like a Switzerland in the region.

So this was a wake up call for a lot of people

who really didn't even consider that I ran

would hit those locations,

or that I ran would only hit US military bases

in those regions, and of course they showed, right?

They don't have a red line there.

They will just straight hit civilians.

And we've long known that they do this, right?

That's what they did, or tempted to do

with a number of their attacks in Israel.

So you just have to be aware of this,

and now plan for it.

At least the Emirates has done a really great job.

Unfortunately, there has been some deaths,

but they had about 500 different kind of missiles

and drones come in.

They were able with their defenses

to deal with most of them.

And unfortunately, they did have some deaths,

and then a few dozen injuries.

So we do have people dying in these situations.

So anything we can do to be smart, be prepared, be alert,

and not be in the wrong place at the wrong time

is very, very helpful.

So what we've seen in the Middle East

in the last day or two is missile launches,

forcing airspace closures.

We've had drone operations targeting critical infrastructure.

We've had airport disruptions,

and of course, we saw even in Dubai,

airport specifically targeted.

And then we've had a number of regional flight restrictions.

So also if you're in those locations,

you might not be able to leave immediately.

So you have to think through, okay,

if I'm gonna be locked down for a short period,

what's that gonna look like?

So we have Americans all over this region,

it doesn't matter if it's Dubai or Abu Dhabi,

and Mosqat, Doha, etc., right?

Situational awareness is very important right now.

So here's a few practical steps.

If you're an American right now living in the Middle East,

my number one recommendation is,

and because I saw so many people do this in Ukraine,

and unfortunately people die,

if you have your phone and your device,

and you bought it in the United States,

it isn't gonna show it's an American device,

even if you're in Dubai and them all.

So the best thing to do is just go out on the local economy

and get a SIM in a device,

and it quickly eliminates that.

So you don't have this massive flag like,

hey, there's an American here with a device.

You know, another thing is avoid anywhere

that those flashpoints in like protests,

just kind of come out of nowhere.

If you're living in a city,

you know exactly where those locations are.

You also need to,

unless you have an emergency,

just stay away from any embassies or consulates right now.

A lot of people, even if some people go there,

and want to safely protest,

there are many who want to take advantage of the situation,

you know, and do some sort of attacks on them.

We've of course seen attempts at our embassies in Karachi

and Lahore, we have an issue where,

you know, people are forming outside of,

you know, our embassy in Baghdad,

so just be smart and stay away from those locations.

Another thing is kind of any government building

because we're in a situation

where some of these countries across the Gulf

are likely going to retaliate, you know,

if they keep getting hit, right?

So like a Saudi, the Emirates,

like they might strike back at Iran,

and then it makes those government institutions

and building areas dangerous

because then they could become targets.

So, right, we got to think second, third, fourth order effects

to keep ourselves safe.

Another thing is,

Western branded hotels or hotels

where a number of Westerners go or even restaurants,

like, you know, just stay away from those locations

for the time being, you know, it's a smart move.

Also, I say this all the time,

but it's super important, download offline maps

of where you are,

so if you can't connect in some way

or you're using your GPS,

you will have the map to use.

Obviously, no multiple routes to,

you know, the residents are staying in,

to hospitals, et cetera.

You know, like I said,

with military members,

keep hard copies or at least scans on the second device,

you know, of the documents you're going to need,

have your go-bag,

make sure you're signed up for the step program

or any kind of, you know,

embassy alerts in your area from the US embassy,

and then, you know,

watch any kind of airline notifications,

especially if you're planning to travel,

because airspace can open and close really fast.

Now, we do have the risk always,

but it can be elevated now of like hostage risk,

travel or just harm even coming to an American traveler,

so just something we have to think about, you know,

you can be an American in a country

that they might be upset over this targeting

and end up in the wrong place at the wrong time,

you know, it's just the truth.

And we know Iran is always trying to use Americans

and hostages as leverage, right?

It's one of the key modus operandi.

So if you're like a dual national American,

you're living overseas, you know,

you need to have a heightened sense of awareness,

you don't put yourself into a difficult situation.

So also limit any travel to jurisdictions

that are close to Iran,

or at least the population might have,

you know, Iranian sympathies,

then we mentioned earlier,

but please enroll in the State Department step program,

you know, you can get real-time alerts

and then it just helps our government know,

hey, what Americans are actually in this area

if something happens?

Another thing is share any itineraries with your family,

you're right, people who are not there

at your location with you.

And then just avoid any public commentary, you know,

these are now becoming very sensitive environments

and it's not like you're in the United States

and you have the freedom of speech,

you are used to and accustomed to

and something might be taken the wrong way.

And even in these regimes when these things are happening,

they can get very paranoid of foreigners

and think you might be a part of trying to agitate things

and you don't want to put yourself in that situation,

especially when you have no involvement,

you know, just keep yourselves safe and be smart,

especially online.

We're going to move into the most likely battlefield,

the majority of people might see as retaliation

and of course it's in the cyberspace.

Now it's so easy to put short-term operations

into place quickly when they're cyber operations,

especially when you have the capabilities that Iran has.

Just so you're aware, in the past,

Iran has previously targeted US banks, infrastructure,

public industry, and then of course,

different networks run by the US government.

The interesting thing with cyber retaliation

is that of course it offers speed,

deniability, and then a scalable response.

So discipline really matters in this case.

You need to be part of the defense against the cyber attacks.

So if you're working right now in the government,

maybe in defense contracting,

you work on critical infrastructure,

you're in the military, et cetera.

Here's a few things just to keep in the back of your mind.

I know you're trying on these things,

but we get lazy.

Don't click any unfamiliar emails right now, right?

Off limits.

That's my whole inbox looks like that, right?

Never clicking any of those.

Another one is don't open any unknown attachments.

Also, we said this in a recent episode,

but it's important if anyone news reaching out to you

on LinkedIn right now, right?

Ignore the request.

You don't have to respond to everyone.

Lastly, don't approve any sort of suspicious logins

to your account.

You know, if they come in quickly in your email

and it says, is this you?

You know, make sure you really did sign in,

because we're in this era where we're just doing things quick

and accepting things quickly and we can miss things.

You know, when we're moving this fast

or things have become automatic for us,

so just be careful with that.

We've all seen again and again,

fishing campaigns spike with geopolitical crisis.

I mean, it's a playbook.

Everyone takes advantage at this time

and just don't be someone they take advantage of.

You don't want to be the calculus

or the person who opened the door

and let this foreign adversary right into your place at work,

because they target a person usually.

That's where cyber intrusion begins.

A lot of people forget that they usually just identify

human and get in that way.

Well, don't be that person.

Now, if you're an individual and you're worried about this

or even a media company,

because they get a lot of targeting during this time,

we just saw a media outlet.

Two of them, I think, in Pakistan that got taken

over by the Taliban in this way,

make sure you turn on your multi-factor authentication,

keep your devices updated if you don't have

what is dealing with the current patch.

It, of course, makes your device vulnerable.

Another thing is be skeptical of anything

that comes to you and says it's urgent.

We need a response now, open now, right?

Delete, delete, delete.

Another thing is verify any breaking news

before you share it, especially if it has links

or you're forwarding kind of this unknown message to,

you know, people within your circle or your family

or especially your co-workers.

And then back up any important files you have

but bring them offline, right?

Your only backup shouldn't be an iCloud.

I always like to tell people just get like your old iPad,

you don't use any more and just save them all on there.

You can keep it in your Go Big, fully charged,

and you always have it. It's very simple.

And remember, these cyber-intrusions

really begin with social engineering.

And so the human layer is the softest target here.

So don't be that layer, very simple.

Now the escalation most people understand

and know the best when it comes to Iran

is proxy escalation.

That's of course because Iran barely operates alone

and it's smart for them to use their proxies

because they get to, again, have that hidden hand.

The most famous and capable proxy for years

has been Hezbollah.

But we also need to make it clear that

Iran, and I just mentioned this

if you saw our episode on Unit 840,

they work with a host of actors.

It's not just tear-scroops,

like Hezbollah, Taliban, Al-Qaeda, etc.

They work with criminal organizations.

They work with drug smuggling organizations.

They work with mafia organizations, right?

Whoever is in that environment and they can leverage

they will use it because it helps with the plausible deniability

and it takes risk off of them, right?

If I can get a cartel to do this sort of casing

or maybe this movement of this weapons I need,

you know, in Southern Texas,

why would I take an Iranian national and do it?

Especially right now when everybody is over-focused

on Iranians because they don't understand

our network is so much larger,

I don't need to use an Iranian to do this operation.

So when we're talking about operations

and when people worry about attacks,

you know, proxies is one of those critical action elements

and traditional elements, you know,

Iran has used, so we have to watch for these proxies.

We need to take them seriously.

And we need to understand that Tehran

and them are almost like one.

Like they're not working separately, right?

They're taking guidance, looking for direction,

and of course they're supportive of maintaining

the status quo of each, right?

Has Bala wants Iran to stay in charge?

A kind of wants, I regime to stay in charge, right?

These are shared goals.

And for years, they have supported each other

in different ways.

And al-Qaeda is such a great example.

For years, the Iranian regime protected

and hosted a number of senior leaders,

obviously, Saif Al-Adle being one of the most famous ones,

who stayed in Iran until 2022.

They were hosting Homs bin Laden,

who lived in Iran until 2020.

So these are long-established close relationships.

And of course, now al-Qaeda owes them

for the protection they pass on to them.

So you just remember, there's some quid pro quo here,

you know, on the table,

some of these groups also owe favors to each other.

And we can't forget that.

Now another thing we need to talk about, of course,

is Iran will probably increase as well.

It's targeting of Israeli or Jewish targets,

not just in the Middle East, but across the United States.

So it's something else to keep in mind.

Of course, we need to have extra vigilance in our own

religious institutions that we visit,

but especially, you know, be extra cautious when you're near,

you know, one of these, you know,

is really like synagogues or community centers as well,

because they are also going to be in this heightened threat environment.

And if you do church security,

have a relationship with them,

you should be doing information sharing about what you're seeing

if there has been any suspicious incidents.

If there has been something that looked like casing,

if anyone has come in and asked strange questions, et cetera,

like work together with those in your community,

because you all can see what's happening on the ground,

and you should be partnering together to defend each other.

Then we have to, of course, talk about maritime

and energy pressure.

Of course, the straight of hormones is going to be

an everybody's radar right now.

It's such an important choke point.

And, you know, Iran is previously seen tankers.

They've harassed commercial vessels.

They use, you know, different naval swarming attacks.

And then, of course, if you had Maurice,

they've used proxies and relationships,

especially with the Houthis,

to then cause other maritime disruptions, right?

These are tools and they're toolkits.

We should watch for, be aware of, and prepared for.

Maritime disruptions really does pressure global markets.

It's not at the level like a massive terrorist attack will do,

but it will cause enough disruption

to where it is massive impacts in it adds costs.

And one thing terrorists really like to do to us,

and, you know, other enemies, is you add costs,

you deplete resources.

You wear the enemy down.

You know, it's a very important thing in how they plan

and think strategically,

and how they operationalize in different ways against us.

Another thing, of course,

it's on a lot of people's mind

because we saw so much of it in Ukraine,

but it's like this advanced drone and UAV capability.

And Iran has kind of moved top tier in this,

because they spent a lot of time supplying Russia

to support their operations, you know,

in Russia's war in Ukraine.

So we have to keep this in mind that drones also

are causing their own issues.

And even we've seen, right, lots of missiles stop,

but it doesn't mean all the drone attacks can be stopped,

you know, by these kind of air defense system

and it's something to keep in mind, plus drones,

like, are so cheap.

It's just this amazing way they can project power

and carry out attacks and not, you know,

be this super costly thing.

Another thing is they are, as we said,

so much harder to detect,

because we've always looked against the big fears, right?

Like intercontinental ballistic missiles,

not some like $1,000 drone.

So, you know, the world's changing a little bit

in this asymmetric warfare.

Then it's so easy to transfer this technology

and these capabilities to proxies.

You know, I had spoke last summer about how

there was the drone attack from the Houthis

that reached the old U.S. Embassy.

It's now a mission compound in Israel.

And it was interesting because it was a drone

that wasn't believed to have gone that far in the past

and then Iran made it capable of traveling

a farther distance, right?

It was kind of an update on the Shaheed.

So, it was an important thing to watch

and also to see then transfer that technology,

you know, to a terrorist group.

And in that case, the Houthis.

You know, so as things escalate,

we do need to look for drone attacks,

not just as we've seen, you know,

unfortunately, there's been on some civilian targets,

but military facilities, oil infrastructure,

and then kind of shipping assets,

port facilities, et cetera,

the things that make our world go round.

Now, back to the homeland.

Everybody wants to understand the Iranian sleeper cells.

You know, what do they look like?

How many are there?

And just like last summer,

it's all everyone's talking about.

And it's almost as causing this wave of fear

when there are even more terrorists

from other groups on US soil than from like the IRGC,

for example.

So, it's something to wear.

In my opinion, it was the same threat.

There you go.

There you go, as it is today,

but I understand now that you have all this pushing at you.

It does make you, you know, feel more uncomfortable.

So, we do have to just talk through how this looks

and what these sleeper cells are.

Now, when we talk about the sleeper cells,

primarily if they're in an operational role,

like where they're going to carry out an operation,

primarily the cell is designed to carry out an assassination.

Now, then it does all the pieces of it, right?

The surveillance, the casing, the route detection,

any type of planning it's going to take to then

hopefully yield an assassination at the end.

Luckily, as you do those things,

they make a signature and a lot of these efforts have been forward

and I recently brought that out in our unit 840.

We talked about a thwarted plot in Germany

and another one in Britain, etc.

So, the good part is those operations

also have like tells in them that you can see, right?

And it's why I see something say something is so important.

Now, the sleeper infrastructure is layered

and they have a number of capabilities.

So, one is of course they have these operational assets capable of violence, right?

Like I said, some are really meant to carry on an assassination.

They also then have support networks.

So, those are people who do logistics, finance, procurement.

They have huge financing like more in the humanitarian space.

So, it's actually bringing in fundraising and donations

that then goes back to terrorist groups.

They have business and backstopping entities.

So, don't think every sleeper sell here from Iran can shoot a gun.

The largest percent are almost like under the operations piece

of like how a business would be, right?

They are in that realm.

So, finance, marketing, logistics, business operations, etc.

Because remember when you're from the sanctioned country,

you have to find ways to get around it.

The ways to get around it is set up front companies and companies that look legitimate.

Find different ways to move money, supplies, resources,

all while circumventing sanctions.

And this is a huge lift.

And this is what they really do spend the majority of their time on.

So, people aren't exactly being honest with you when they're saying,

oh, there's all these Iranian sleeper sales here.

It's like, yeah, well, how many?

Their only job is to fundraise, right?

Are they telling you that piece?

No, they're not.

Because it's become this kind of fear-monger thing.

Anytime we talk about Iran.

You know, the last piece that is very important

and I don't want to downplay it.

Because they're also not fighters.

It's these sympathizers, media officials,

and those who are supposed to amplify fake news,

you know, to promote the cause.

A really great example in the last couple of days has been,

unfortunately, this IRGC missile that hit this town

and it impacted children's school

that sounds like it was a girl's only school.

Well, immediately we saw these pro-terrorist accounts

start to put out the fake misinformation

that the US carried out their strike.

Then Iran was smart and they had their ambassador

to the UN go there and follow an official complaint against the US.

Of course, when people looked at the trajectory of the missile,

it came from inside Iran.

But it spread like wildfire and it went viral

across social media, blaming either in some cases

that US government or Israel, not Iran or the IRGC.

And you have to be cognizant that these campaigns are occurring

because they can get dangerous.

They can rile up a lot of people.

It brought a ton of activists in the United States

to the streets to protest against it

when that's not even how it occurred.

So pay attention to these influence campaigns

because they really do cause a lot of damage

and they're great at radicalizing.

And that's the last thing we need right now.

When we're already in this heightened state of alert,

we have this recent attack in Austin

and we're still waiting to hear.

But of course, there are concerns he's been radicalized

over our operation in Iran.

He was already radical, right?

But it pushed him up to an operational state

that maybe he would not have reached.

And so that is something we have to watch

and we have to watch any factor

that moves people to these different stages

because we obviously don't want that to happen.

So we do have our Iranian sleepers

who can go operational if needed.

But there is also this other threat vector

that really isn't being discussed

and it should be it's those terrorist groups

that Iran is aligned with

that also can carry out attacks.

One of the best examples is, of course, Al-Qaeda,

who is at least said publicly

that they sent over a thousand terrorists here

to actually commit attacks on the US homeland.

So also just keep that in mind.

Other groups can take advantage

or they can do it in solidarity with Iran.

Or we have the term not everybody loves,

but it is the fact there's also these inspired individuals,

right?

A lot of people call them lone wolf actors,

even their primary.

The most of the time when you look back,

they're connected to a real group

and lone wolf is almost the way to downplay,

real operational planning and preparation,

you know, in larger scale attack plans,

they don't always want you to know

the individuals connected to a larger network

because it's scary to the public

when they actually start to sit back

and realize, you know, just how many terrorists are actually

in our communities and actively doing targeting

and collecting and surveillance, you know,

when you use the term sleeper,

it's not like people are locked away in a room

waiting for some smoke signal.

That is not what it is.

They're actively doing something, right?

It could be building IEDs.

If they're on the logistics side, right?

They're just renting safe houses, et cetera.

There is always some sort of action occurring.

And then in this kind of environment we're in,

you know, the radicalization piece

can bring inspired individuals

who want to commit an act, you know,

in support of Iran or maybe some of the Iran,

Iraqi proxies, right?

We've seen that before, obviously,

inspired by Hezbollah or in support of Hezbollah,

et cetera.

So that is going to be our risk

and we just have to be, you know, aware of it and alert.

And again, it was in a risk a week ago

and it's still a risk a week for now.

We just have to be honest,

because these actors are here in our country.

Now there is one piece just because it's happened in the past,

so we have to talk about it.

Is there are these risks to aviation

and it's almost like maybe miscalculated risk?

It's when there's so much going on.

We have airspace open.

We have an airspace close.

We have people misidentifying things.

Recently, we actually had the Department of War

misidentify a CBP drone and shoot it down.

And prior to that weeks before they shot down a balloon.

So these even happen within the best military.

So Iran now is in the situation.

They're feeling extra paranoia.

And there is, you know, the fear they could shoot down

in a commercial airliner.

They have actually done it before.

So we just need you to understand

that these airline risks have really spiked now.

It is something where the majority of it is confusion, right?

We're not saying the Iranian regime is just going to come out

and target civilian airliners.

We don't believe that.

But there's disinformation.

And a lot of misinformation.

And there is that term people like to say

there is this fog of war.

And accidents do happen, especially, you know,

in these type of environments when there's a lot going on.

And nobody knows what's coming next.

Now the piece everybody is always most concerned of.

It is lower on the scale as we walk through these threats.

But of course, we have to talk about it is kind of economic,

infrastructure sabotage.

Obviously, Iran has sabotage units, right?

The CUDS force has units that deploy to the west.

And then of course, we told you about unit 840

that also has a sabotage element.

So we definitely can't rule out any sort of infrastructure sabotage.

It's a lot lower in probability than just using cyber

in some way to do this.

But there are small risks to doing and seeing physical sabotage,

industrial site targeting, you know,

if they can supply chain disruptions.

And then again, they're going to likely try to deny any involvement

if they do do it.

They're going to likely limit at what scope they do this.

And then it's just kind of another piece

if they're putting in different operations to support

their asymmetric warfare pattern, right?

So they might just decide, hey, this helps us with this piece.

It accomplishes this mission.

You know, and that's why they do it.

We don't think it's like the sustained campaign to bring down

like the entire US electrical grid or something like that.

It's not like at that level of a threat.

And then this of course doesn't affect everyday Americans,

but we have the risk or the follow to the ripple effects

of what internal Iranian instability is going to look like

and what's going to happen with it in the weeks to come.

So of course, we don't know yet who is leading,

but also it seems like the US intends to continue strikes.

So it's not even clear who is still being targeted

in the coming days.

As you can imagine, anytime a situation like this happens,

a harry liners really get aggressive, right?

They want to consolidate their power and their authority quickly,

you know, and not allow any sort of power vacuum

that takes away from them.

And of course, that's right now still going to be the regime.

You know, they control the power.

Another thing is there might be rival factions

that get involved.

And we also have this issue.

What Iran invited foreign actors, right?

We have our Iraqi terrorists, you know, Afghans

a part of things like the FETTA UN Brigade

who have been on the streets already killing civilians.

So they're a factor in this country.

And then there's just the proxy groups, right?

You know, if Hezbollah really decides to join in, you know,

on this war as people are turning it,

even though it's not really technically a war yet,

but if Hezbollah gets involved and starts targeting locations

and, you know, if they do something, let's say,

the US Embassy in Beirut or something like that,

that's then this ripple effect that comes

from the internal stability, you know,

as well that we just have to pay attention to.

You know, so the bottom line is most Americans based

in the United States aren't in imminent danger,

but we need to be aware.

The highest risks are, of course,

to US military personnel or any kind of diplomatic

or intelligence officer serving overseas,

Americans who are based inside Gulf States,

any one kind of associated with Israeli or Jewish facilities,

you know, high profile political figures.

It's obviously like we saw after the death

of Qasim Soleimani.

They blamed it on President Trump

and put a number of different assassination plots

in place against our President.

And then any kind of just critical infrastructure

or sectors that are a part of kind of the US, you know,

defense industrial base, right?

Who is helping the US inside to do this,

and then also who is helping the US externally to do this, right?

Who offered them air space,

who reached out and supported this operation,

you know, who pushed for this to occur, right?

The regime has paying attention to all those factors,

you know, when they're planning any sort of retaliation.

This isn't any sort of moment for panic.

You know, it's a moment for discipline to take time, step back.

You know, think about the plans you've been putting in place.

You know, a lot of obviously the people who follow me

have spent a lot of time working on their personal family

emergency plans, thinking through doing what of scenarios,

you know, if they end up, you know, impacted in some way

by terrorist attack or another crisis.

And it's now just the time let's review everything,

make sure all of our ducks in a row.

And then we need to be aware, right?

We need to be situationally aware when we're out in public.

First off, if we can see something and say something

and stop something, that's great.

But also if we can get ourselves just out of a situation

that doesn't feel right, that's even better, right?

Our intent here is to not even be a part, you know,

of any mess that occur.

You know, as this goes forward and people start getting,

you know, really volatile and riled up over this incident.

Even in the United States, there's a huge split

among people who think we should have gotten involved in Iran

and think we shouldn't.

And even that temperature is getting, I think, a little too high.

You know, we need to, like, show respect to each other

as we talk through things we don't all agree with.

Like, what am I going to watch for in the next seven days?

It is a question I've got.

And I think it's important.

So first off, I'm going to look, of course,

to see who becomes these interim leaders.

And then if there is, like, a real body put in place

to maybe be a transition government completely separate from the regime.

Because, of course, something like that could hold more power.

The concern is if, you know, we don't take out enough of a regime

and just leave them in power.

Is that going to be much of a change, right?

So we do have a lot of questions around this

and things to watch for.

You know, another thing is, how is IRG see going to respond?

Are there loyalty's going to change?

Like, who are they going to back?

You know, as all these dominoes are beginning to fall.

And then what they decide to do operationally, you know,

in these moments, like they focus more on preserving themselves.

Is there going to be this die hard effort to preserve the regime?

Et cetera.

So we'll have to see how all that plays out.

Another thing is just the movement of their proxies.

How are the proxies going to get involved?

You know, what are their statements?

You know, how is Hezbollah going to deal with this situation?

What are the proxies going to do in Iraq?

That can be very concerning.

Because, of course, we still have facilities, you know, in the country.

Then we have, as we brought up, this cyber activity.

We need to be watching for this because this will be probably one of the most visible retaliation pieces.

We at least see on this side of the world, obviously,

you can watch missiles and drones fly in the Middle East.

But when you're on U.S. soil, it's kind of like,

okay, what should we watch for? What should we expect?

And I think we will be able to see some of the cyber activity.

Then any kind of just aviation, maritime alerts and threats.

Because there's just so much going on.

Like I said, even if it's not something bad,

there's, of course, going to be all of these airspace closures.

A lot of miscommunication about what's going on.

So it's just something, you know, to watch for and see how it all plays out.

Another, if there's any sort of hostage activities or different detentions or even diplomacy,

you know, around these type of topics, you know,

we want to make sure Americans stay safe abroad.

Don't become a victim.

It's not just a terrorist attack, but any sort of, you know, hostage-taking situation

or anything that can accelerate to being kind of a diplomatic issue.

We don't want to give anyone leverage at this time.

Then these disinformation spikes.

This is incredibly important because a lot of people aren't good at saying,

oh yeah, that really was misinformation.

So we have to watch for, of course, deep fake statements.

There was one that went all over the place a couple days ago.

It literally was like, they were saying it was an al-Qaeda commander saying he backed Israel first off.

The flag behind him was like a Taliban flag.

It was white.

He had like a Pakistani accent.

Like he was from kind of like, you know, the old cyber province, etc.

Like not a known individual terrorist.

And everyone's like, this senior al-Qaeda leader is like,

let's back Israel over Iran when the strangest things I've ever seen.

And I sell legitimate accounts sharing it.

So let's not fall for these things if you don't know who posted it.

And you don't even know the individual in the video talking.

It's probably not something you should share.

Another thing is kind of these fake claims about what the US military did.

Or how they were impacted.

Of course, there was one that like these four missiles hit, you know,

one of our carriers that wasn't true.

And then of course, we've already talked about this unfortunate incident

where these young girls died in a school.

Again, the US was not involved in that.

That was an IRGC missile.

Right.

So we don't want to help promote that type of misinformation.

Then things like fake evacuation orders are going to be very dangerous,

especially when everybody's like uncertain about what's happening.

So if you're sharing something that says there's an evacuation of,

let's say, the US embassy in Baghdad.

Make sure you're sharing it from the US embassy's alert page

and not some random page on X who's just putting out news, right?

There will be a formal and official notification.

Make sure that's what you're looking for and sharing.

And then I just see tons of this in the recent little war happening

between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

It's like this manipulated footage.

It could be of like fighter jets or missiles, etc.

So you have to watch and not be sharing this information.

Some of it's just old video.

Make sure it's really coming from a reputable source before you share it.

And if you shared it by mistake, just go back and delete it or make a comment that,

oh, this ended up being proven to be misinformation.

Don't be part of the problem.

The information battlefield moves so much quicker than like the physical battlefield.

And we all need to just not like beast supporters of any sort of fake narratives.

You know, let's look for the information that benefits us.

It's useful to us.

And just let the noise be the noise.

So the next seven days are really about posture, messaging,

and like kind of detecting the different signals out there that could alert

to some sort of threat streams.

Most escalation pathways aren't binary.

So they're incremental.

We are watching for shifts.

Not just one single event that's going to pop off.

A lot of people are like, oh, there's going to be a alert that goes out to these sleepers.

And it all happened a day.

And that's unfortunately just not how this, you know, ecosystem works.

When we were talking about like having this full spectrum awareness,

that means let's watch what the Iranian leaders do in signal.

And also other leaders across the Gulf.

Let's watch for the movement of proxies.

You know, what they're saying publicly.

And then what we physically see them do.

You know, let's watch for these different patterns in cyber operations and cyber intrusions.

And when we see something that might be benign, maybe take a minute and think,

could this be Iranian?

Another thing is just watching for this maritime friction as that can bubble up really quick.

And then watching, of course, for information manipulation.

So this is a very serious moment.

And we do want people to take it seriously, but we just don't want it to kind of be this chaotic response

or kind of anything stress or fear based.

You know, as we go through this, you know, we're not operating in the dark, right?

Iran has been an enemy of ours for decades.

People might say some war just happened, but we've really been at war with Iran,

you know, since the moolus took power and that just has been the truth.

They started targeting us just several years after they took power in 1979, right?

They never stopped harming Americans at all that time.

So we understand their playbook, right?

This isn't some new novel enemy for the US.

And I want you to understand because we understand the playbook,

we cannot least think through what likely threat scenarios would be

because there is a long history of this.

So most Americans at home in their communities, you know, are not in immediate danger

even though I know it feels that way because now it's like broadcast across your screens 24-7.

The highest risks are kind of layered, geographic, domain-specific.

And that's why you need awareness of all these different layered threats.

So you can watch as they potentially unfold in some of the categories we discussed today.

So do not amplify rumors, do not feed disinformation.

Let's just not be useful idiots for the enemy in this case, right?

So if there's any changes as we go forward in this threat environment,

you know, we'll circle back and bring it here to the watch floor.

We hope today was useful for you.

And remember, you have the tools at your disposal.

We've been in a fight against terrorists for two decades.

You are much more prepared and ready and you're more clear-eyed against this threat than you actually realize.

Thanks for being here today.

Thank you, thank you very much.