Where Does the Iran War Go From Here?

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Hi, Bill Crystal here.

Thanks for joining us on Bullwark on Sunday live.

Here at 11 a.m. Sunday morning with Lieutenant General retired Mark Hurtling,

who's been such an excellent addition to the Bullwark.

I can't say how much we value having you.

And that was excellent or early analysis you and Tim and Sarah and JVL did yesterday,

but just over 24 hours ago really helped I think explain what was happening.

But we now know a lot more and the lot more has happened.

And one piece of very bad news a couple an hour and a half ago,

I think that common house that we have three U.S. service members,

dead and several pretty serious injuries.

What you were in command of people who were killed.

I mean, what is that you yourself?

I think we're wounded and doesn't storm.

So what is to say about that?

The whole process is fascinating.

And it's kind of an unknown, I think,

built to most civilians and first of all, I should say thank you for your comments about yesterday.

It was interesting going on as a news was popping.

But from a notification process and from a transfer process,

it's really fascinating to watch how the military does business.

They want to make sure that the first people who are notified are the ones listed as next of kin.

Every military member who deploys somewhere fills out multiple sheets.

They all do it will.

There's a process of preparing for deployment.

So that you do know first of all who who should be notified.

It's also kind of the administrative stuff of who gets your insurance.

Those kind of things that make sure that the right person or getting those things.

So it's it's all the way from from the sublime to the administrative.

And the key is that other people should not know until your next of kin is notified.

So those three soldiers who have who have sacrificed their life.

Probably I would guess with a missile strike in one of our bases somewhere.

It probably was not direct fire action, but again, we don't know yet.

We don't know how this occurred.

They will be transferred to Dover Air Force Base in Delaware with their remains after their mortuary affairs teams take care of their remains and prepare them for transfer.

The other interesting factor too is the wounded.

And there's allegedly eight soldiers wounded is what I originally heard.

They will more than likely depending on the status of the wounds be transferred to the Lonstle original hospital outside Grandstein, Germany.

I'm very familiar with that having commanded US Army Europe.

It was one of the organizations that was under my command and spent an awful lot of time there during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan because that's where every wounded soldier came through.

And they were stabilized until they could be prepared for the eight hour flight across the country to either Walter Reed Hospital and Maryland or home on hospital or wherever depending on the types of wounds they had.

It is a process that unfortunately.

The military has had to practice quite a bit and they're very good at it.

But you know that the same thing we were talking before we went on air that we don't know where these three soldiers were injured or were killed.

And there's a whole bunch of soldiers in the Middle East.

And depending on all the bases if you add them up both Army Navy Air Force Marines, there's probably close to and I'm not sure I'm guessing it is about 15,000 plus in some of those bases.

So every parent, every spouse, every family member who has someone deployed overseas until that announcement is made and the soldiers are named.

They have to be worried about is is is my love one.

So there's quite a lot of people right now who are suffering and who are waiting for news.

And then after that then there's kind of the feeling of oh my gosh my soldiers OK.

But now I feel guilty about hoping that mine was OK when someone other someone some other parents or spouse are worried about their soldier.

And it's just a part of who we are as a military when you raise that hand and swear an oath to defend the Constitution.

You know that someday you might be asked to give your life in that defense.

But unfortunately that doesn't strike home to too many people until something like this happens.

When I saw that news I couldn't help but flash back to when I saw him just deployed in Afghanistan in combat in late 2010 and 2011.

And yeah were and then their unit took fair enough of casualties.

Unfortunately three five Marines and sang it well in in helmet province.

And you know worry you'd hear well it was complicated.

They think as you know we were discussing before we went on the air they shut down communications to make sure there's no.

But you know that the family is notified properly first.

So you'd have communication shut down email.

You wouldn't be able to get an email and you know something had happened but you wouldn't know.

Of course what had happened and so that's the seven months were.

Yeah not quite like anything else honestly.

I think Susan and I have gone through so my heart went out to yes you say obviously especially those who will.

You'll be notified sadly that their loved ones have died but also everyone else who's on now you know as you say worried you don't want to sort of.

It's very hard psychologically you don't want to root obviously you know it's like you care most about your own.

Your own son or daughter or spouse but on the other hand you don't want to sort of you also want to think about the others say we're just while we're on this I think people.

The notification process the personal notification by officers or who show up at your door right I remember sort of he hates.

That was sort of the dreaded knock on the door that could come almost at any time of day or night right.

Well it sounds like you're wanting me to tell my story when I was wounded I'll tell this quick man yet when I was wounded in desert storm.

The notification process frankly was not that good we had not had a chance to practice it in several decades.

So when I was wounded as along with about three of my colleagues in the first cavalry squadron.

One of the aviators who was flying the mission that day knew we were wounded by monitor in the radio.

And they had a the right phone there were no cell phones back then but he had a the right phone and he called home to his wife and said hey major hurtling's been injured along with these other people.

Well that wife called my wife and said hey your your husband's been wounded but he's okay don't worry about it he's been taken care of.

And when it went through the formal process and the notification author called or actually showed up at the house to talk face to face.

My wife thought this was a second strike and that I was probably now dead because this guy's showing up.

So you can imagine the angst that occurs within families when something like this happens.

And you have a marine son.

We had two army sons and a navy and an army daughter in law and we were rotating in and out of Iraq so my wife was at home continuously worried.

And I'll just use the expression she used one time which is having a member of your family serving the military is at once your your moment of pride but it's always your moment of fear.

And that's what the military families go through.

And the military has maintained the practice right of personal notification by right.

Yeah right.

There's no cell phones there's no telegraphs it's a personal notification and sometimes that gets difficult.

I mean if you have as an example a national guard soldier and I'm not saying that's who this is but if you had a national guard soldier from Nebraska and they live in small time.

Small town sweatshirt Nebraska out there somewhere then that casual notification officer probably asked to get on the road find your house do all those kind of things.

Sometimes it gets rather difficult and sometimes you know the interim period I had one incidence of a soldier whose parents were divorced and he had his mom as his next of kin not his divorce father.

He was extremely upset when he wasn't the first to know and you know the radio announced the name.

So there's all kinds of intricacies to these notifications and it's just God bless the soldiers who gave their life and sacrifice for what they were supposed to do.

And also is a signal I think we'll probably talk about this is the requirement for civilian leaders who send the military into combat to really understand the implications of things like this.

No well I couldn't echo just echo your God bless these young men and women and and also I got to say the military is maybe as you say it was a little chaotic in the early 90s we weren't used to it and also moderate communications was beginning to happen and they probably adjusted to that.

They were pretty well adjusted to the fact that Facebook and cell phones and so forth existed by 2010 and I the amount of care and concern and professionals in the military showed in the notification process is really extraordinary and it's you know it's.

You could say well they're taking resources away from fighting the war or something they could do it in a simple way they don't have to offer to show up at your door at the door of every single person.

But it was really admirable that they I think our military takes that so seriously well and part of the soldiers create in the army anyway is I will never leave a fallen camera that doesn't just mean rescuing somebody on the bottom on the battlefield.

It means making sure they're taking care of after they're falling to so that's part of the ethos of the military.

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So war is a serious business and we're at war and I thought it would really be helpful is you had an excellent piece in the world this morning people should read on the more you know what follows from the military strikes the more.

It's called political military side of things but actually really thought will be useful to go through a little bit just what what do we know about the actual military situation and what's your sense of so far as you can tell from open source information so forth where we are.

There's not a whole lot of reports coming out of the Pentagon I think that was purposeful when they eliminated most of their press core a few months ago.

But what we do know from open source and also from error sources were I'm getting a lot of news from Al Jazeera and some of the other air sources which I'm familiar with having spent some time in the Middle East.

The tax continue this morning they've continued all night long estimates are that there's been over 800 strikes combined strikes by both Israeli and US forces that that's a combination of air strikes but also.

Missile strikes from ships offshore there's also been the use of what's called Lucas drones which is a one way drone that strikes a target that after it's given some coordinates to hit so there's a combination of some old technologies some new technologies all striking a variety of.

Targets that are part of what the Air Force and maybe call a strike package so every hour during this campaign they're going to get another strike package and say here the targets were going to hit this time their early strike packages were based against things like air defense systems inside of Iran intelligence targets certainly the first strike as we now understand it was against a meeting location where several Iranian officials to include.

The Iatola were allegedly meeting that's early reports it's allegedly been confirmed but you know those things can always bounce back to you to bite you if it's not true but the Iranian TV did announce that the Iatola was dead last night or early this morning I guess it was our time so you know that the war continues the president has said.

That the strikes could continue for two or three more days or two or three more weeks one of the wild cards now it is I guess in my view is with these three soldier deaths being killed by Iranian whatever they were killed by assuming let's assume rockets or missiles.

Will that ramp up the kinetic activity will there be more strikes because of that if it was done if it was a result of say a PMF strike a professional military force of some militia unit in Iraq or Syria or someplace like that would that mean more strikes in the region and what would be the effects of that how you know again we were talking about this yesterday whenever you start a war you don't know how it's going to end.

The problem warfare you don't know if it's going to grow be over quickly you know when 100 years ago when I went into desert storm we were anticipating 50% casualties in a very long war the war was 45 days of air strikes in a four day ground campaign and very small number of casualties for that amount of size of the force in Iraq.

Our secretary defense in 2003 said hey this is going to be a kick walk everybody's going to rise up to greet us with open arms and hug us and it's going to be great well 15 years later I was there on my third tour and we're still fighting in Iraq so again you don't know once you unleash the dogs of war is the same goes what's going to happen.

They are the degree to which it's unpredictable both in a big sense that what will be the big ramifications of of of starting or gauging in a war or not starting a war backing off for a war Syria the red line and the refugee crisis you know so this the big geopolitical ramifications but just I've always been struck as a server obviously just as a mere observer by the degree of just unpredictability almost day to day these things Ziggins egg and unpredictable directions and suddenly there's a front that wasn't supposed to be a big front or development that wasn't supposed to be.

The big development or vice versa so very important you know if I can if I can say a little bit more about you know i'm focusing on the military forces in my update to you but what I think is also important to recognize is the update on the civilian forces we are seeing a smattering of direct hits by Iranian rockets in different countries they have struck in seven different era of nations.

Some of them have been expected like the attack on the US naval base in Bahrain some of the PMF the professional military force strikes in Iraq and Syria expected the diversion of some of the Israeli aircraft to specific locations in targeting expected what wasn't expected I think by many but which I anticipated was some of the target list of things that

Iran is trying to hit certainly they're going to hit military bases especially US military bases certainly they're going to launch toward Israel which they have done with multiple barajas what a lot of people may not have expected is some of the strikes against places like hotels in Dubai.

You know the island in Dubai some of the resort centers and some of the era of nations but that's expected because I think Iran is testing the circumference of some of the air defense systems and as we've often said in the war between Russia and Ukraine you can't defend everywhere with air defense they are a point target I mean they're basically you set a patriot system or a fact.

It's a high value target and as crude as this is going to sound a resort hotel is not a high value target so if if I were in the Iranian military because I want to bring pain to my enemy just like they're bringing pain to me I may strike at the areas where I think are less defended by her defense system.

Along with that you know the air defense systems are relatively where do I want constraint let's use that word in terms of firing they want to fire a million dollar plus patriot missile at an incoming ballistic missile that cost about the same they are not going to fire a million dollar patriot missile at a $400 drone.

So again commanders on the ground have to make those choices and the ones defending in those air defense units have to make those choices are what are the most important targets to knock out of the sky.

And when you do knock those important targets out the missiles and the cruises and those kind of things are the lesser important weapon systems like the shepi drones going to get through and how do you counter those so this is what it is sometimes called battlefield mathematics and battlefield calculations it's very difficult to be a commander on the scene when this much kinetic energy is flying around in the space of the.

I can imagine let me ask you about I read somewhere it seemed plausible to me that I want to do a real check with you that our initial strike or the combination of our initial strike in the Israelis initial strike was broader than one might have expected that is to say it wasn't simply on nodes of you know regime control or the nuclear program or the ballistic missile program which are the main things when it's been well wonder.

People can talk about either for regime change you obviously go after the regime leadership or for the nuclear program you go after both so we whatever's left of the nuclear.

So you know seal up some more mountains and so forth but also the missiles which are a great concern to Israel certainly into us to some degree to.

But it seemed I read somewhere that's quite interesting that we've attacked a whole bunch of military sides down to kind of warehouses with conventional weapons and so forth.

Scattered all around the country very very and this really is an attack therefore it seems to.

Seek to disable the Iranian military the Iranian regime's military capabilities very broadly and surprisingly broadly I mean that there was attacks all the way to the north one person put into what he wrote that there are places that are we've attacked that are never been met that are nowhere mentioned in any.

I a report or any US military planning document what I guess they are must be the planning documents but not publicly you know as a kind of side of concern select the times or one of these places we've all heard of you.

Because there warehouses there that stock other kinds of munitions and so forth so very broad attack which require a lot of planning and a lot of intelligence of course is that your sense of it to is that correct.

It certainly that's that's the way a straight past an initial strike package works the first thing you want to hit if you're bringing in a lot of aircraft to hit the bigger targets is you have to go in with jammers and what what are called well I won't use their name I'll just say what they do their anti radiation missiles so they're looking for radars.

Anything that would be linked to an air defense system that could shoot down and incoming aircraft those are the first things you want to destroy as a military commander you want to open up the the free way if you will for all the other aircraft or they're going in so what might seem like a minor target like a radar dome is a critically important target to allow other aircraft to get into bomb the bigger targets and to bring in the bunker busters here to have you know

the targeting against intelligence center and as you can imagine if if I'm in the Iranian intelligence and I'm in a building somewhere in Tehran or is behind I want to have a whole bunch of air defense systems around me to make sure I can continue to execute my mission well those are the first targets you want to hit as a coalition force air force and some of them are hit with rockets.

Some other missiles rather some of them are hit with missiles some are hit with airplanes some are just jammed to see what kind of signature they give off and what how it opens things up but the the Iranian that the analysis of the Iranian military is pretty good.

But I mean they haven't changed a whole lot in the last 10 in the last decade or so they've just continued to receive equipment from Russian and from China and from others but for the most part it's an old force and some of their equipment is decrepit especially their air force is just absolutely terrible.

So that's all goes into the calculation of a campaign if if you're the United States going against a foreign country let's let's say China you know their aircraft or top notch and their level five fifth generation aircraft six generation potentially so you want to knock those out on the ground aircraft in Iran.

You don't have to much worry about there's still using in some cases that four fighters the kind we used in Vietnam because they're the sanctions regimes have been depleted of spare parts and the ability to operate some of these equipment.

But having said all that their air defense equipment is relatively good for their country so that was the first target before you could go after some of the other ones.

And it also does sound those if we had a broad set went beyond in a way the normal if you will you know suppressing their air defenses and so forth and I wonder how much it really was intended there for to be a kind of.

The military resistance consistent with the goal of regime change in the sense that it really tried to weaken the regime throughout the country it sounds like it didn't just go after knows you know militarily places they could hit us back.

Places that also might be where they might hit other countries obviously I don't know how we'll see how much we've degraded that but also in places where they could terrorize their own people I don't know how much we can sustain that and that's a big big thing to try to do at a country of 90 million people and.

The geographic size and we have limits on our own capabilities I suppose let me ask you at that in a second I guess the other question I'm curious what are you.

I mean how quickly do you think do you think Iran can sustain the ability to hit.

The Gulf States and even US and other ally bases around in the region and Israel for that matter where there have been casualties.

For quite a while they just have too many missiles and rockets and too many places to launch them from the week you just can't reasonably expect to suppress all of that or would that be I don't know where where do you think.

That's big again that gets back to the battlefield calculation that's the big question estimates intelligence estimates are saying they have a massive amount of missiles I've heard numbers anywhere from 4,000 to 15,000.

So when you talk about that you say okay well then we got to hit their missile sites we got to hit where their launchers are we got to strike their arms facilities where they're storing them their warehouses.

Yeah that's all part of the target set but you know again Iran is not a rock they have mountains they have places to store some of these things that are deeply buried.

They have certainly the great sand plains but a good portion of the country of Iran is covered by mountain ranges so that's where a lot of their launch sites are that's where a lot of their nuclear facilities are located because they want to protect them.

But to get back to your question you know I can't answer how long can they sustain it it depends how good the strikes are now when you're talking is we've heard this morning that there's been close to a thousand strikes airstrikes and missile strikes by us against them you got to believe that some of the more important parts that have been targeted are critically contributing to the launch of more missiles.

How many and it almost brings us back to the old Soviet days bill and you remember this well when the army used to tick off the advanced guard tanks and how many tanks did we kill and what's coming next it's literally a numbers game of what do we think we struck what do we think we depleted in their force how many more missiles can they fire and how many more missiles can we send up to defend against the incoming missiles.

And that's where we're constrained so you want to hit if I'm a military commander I want to I want to destroy these missiles and these launch sites on the ground.

But as you just said in our last question there are all kinds of targets you want to hit you want to hit air defense you want to hit the intelligence community you want to hit the headquarters you want to hit the leadership you want to hit a republic or the revolutionary guard so you can see that target list starts to expand.

And that's what happens with these strike packages so you have multiple types of US and Israeli aircraft going against the best targets they can strike and to get the most damage assessment.

And we're very strong and a very effective and impressive obviously military and large I guess you'd say certainly compared to anyone compared to Iran or compared to others in the region.

But we don't have infinite resources right I mean I think people sometimes talk about what we can just you know I mean it's great to be a military but we can see if you can just infinitely do this say word obviously based on what we what's appropriate to speak about publicly and open source information about what constraints we might face.

Who are they're massive and and truthfully I can speak a lot about it because that was my job my first pentagon my first and only pentagon job was the J7 on the joint set.

And one of our requirements along with and the J7 is in charge of war at the time was in charge of war plans and transformation things like that in conjunction with the J4 who's the logistics person.

You know we have to maintain the war plans so we see where the threats are around the world in a global environment.

So if we saw different things happening in one location and we had to put a lot of coordinates on that site and a lot of equipment my job is the war planner to say okay where are the risk in other places.

If I were the war planner today and I saw the number of strikes we have going in my first red flag would be hey we're using a whole lot of ammunition in Iran not quite sure whatever what our end state strategy is.

And I know my counterpart in the Chinese Navy is our Chinese headquarters the PLA is ticking off how many precision weapons we have used how many aircraft carriers have been deployed for a long time how many Air Force airplanes have been flying different sorties because all of that wears down the force.

So we have to you know concern ourselves with our enemy who is also ticking these things off and really estimating what kind of level of risk are we assuming in doing an operation like this.

And even with respect to Iran itself a friend of mine who follows the stuff quite closely with saying we don't have you know infinite numbers of some of these high tech missiles some of the air defense things and it's one thing to do this for two weeks nothing to or I think two for two months you know we we civilians back here just have great faith in the military and we spent a lot of money on it and kind of assume that this is just we have endless ability but I think that's not the case right.

Well and this is this is why I mean if I can bring this in it's not Iranian based but it's Ukrainian based it was during the last administration when people were so upset that we weren't giving more stuff to Ukraine to fight the Russians.

Well what I would I know for a fact is we were giving him the the massive amount of stuff that we possibly could while taking those risk assessments in other theaters and how would it affect the potential for our operation.

So that all becomes part of that calculus and I'll say one more thing because you mentioned it you know the US being infinitely capable of replenishing supplies when you're talking about precision weapons those things take a long time to build in the industrial base so when you use them there's a there's a big hole in your warehouse for a long time.

Mark this has been so instructive I think for people for everyone you know and certainly those who don't have your experience which is 99.99% of us and so interesting we didn't really get to the four political military stuff but you'll have plenty of chance to everyone should read your piece up with the bullwork and you'll have plenty of chance to discuss this with my well Ben Ben and Tim and all my colleagues over the next days and weeks I suppose we'll see how long this goes and even after this we'll have to discuss the implications of course so many of the implications of these wars.

I've in my lifetime have been not what we're first expected both both abroad and at home but I'll let you go you have a book signing I should mention that your book is so it's actually out now right I think we promoted four years now.

It exists and in real life I've got a copy of it I'll show you it's right here but

Packet things over but it looks something like this I've got copies of it we're doing an opening book signing at a local library here in Florida just because I have connection with that library and they asked me to do it but the book will come out next Tuesday.

I'm sorry the 10th and there's Tim Miller and he's going to talk to you about politics because I don't want you.

It is.

He'll also vote your book right?

What's that Tim?

Very welcome Tim.

We're talking about the book with Tim next week.

All right thanks.

Thanks Bill.

Appreciate it.

Thanks Mark.

Thank you very much really appreciate it.

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Thanks Tim for joining.

Hello Bill Crystal.

Yeah quite a very interesting discussion with Mark I think and it's good to have somebody

who really understands the military stuff right?

Yeah, sobering.

A lot for us.

It is sobering you know and when sort of jumps over it a little bit in our world if I can say that

you know we have intelligent discussions.

I hope of the you know implications abroad and at home but you sort of jump over the actual

worth it's being fought a little bit.

Human impact.

Yeah.

Okay, so let's talk about the domestic side and then if you want to add anything on the geopolitical

foreign side.

It's not like you don't know about that too.

You feel free to but otherwise I thought we could talk about sort of what do you think?

I don't know what are your initial senses of how this affects politics here at home.

Both Trump himself, Trump's approval and Trump's support but also the mega coalition.

The Democrats.

Congress.

But look, I mean obviously we're about only 24 hours in here.

So this stuff is developing and changing and a lot of it kind of depends on events.

I just you know it's hard for me to see how this is a political win at all for Trump going into

it on the beginning.

I you know there were some who suggested that part of this was you know distracting from

Epstein distracting from his domestic issues that he's going to do this and get some sort of

rally on the flag effect and I just don't see that.

I mean I think that there's going to be some hardening of support for Trump.

You know maybe in some areas where people were starting to get a little queasy about various

things and I think you see this on Fox News and you know among in the Senate on Capitol Hill

and he was start you know there were very small flashes of people starting to distance from Trump and treat him like a lame duck

and I think that you know they'll close ranks around him and you can have seen that this weekend

from Republican elected officials for the most part of the couple of exceptions.

Not Ohio.

I'm messy.

But you know I like the that you know whether it becomes a major political problem or a small

or just a kind of a minor issue with managing his coalition.

I think it's going to be event dependent right and you know I think that obviously this it was very impressive

military operation in the first 24 hours like you know Israel is demonstrated if nothing else just a ton of

military capability.

You know the fact that they could in 24 hours you know just take out 40 plus of the top leaders of Iran is not nothing.

And you know it's what would we call the beginning of Iraq shock and awe and it's like shock and awe times 10.

You know and it was really they decapitated the top of the Iranian government and regime and so that that is you know

demonstrate military skill that like Russia didn't demonstrate in Ukraine for example right so that there's a demonstration of power here then you can see how you can you see some jingoism domestically around that and you know rightfully so in certain cases like then what right now what and and I think that what Trump obviously wants is

a kind of event is way less dial transition to just another member of the regime.

We've already seen this he talked to the Atlantic I think why you are on with General Heartland so I was reading this but you know basically says that I think he's already open to negotiations with the Iranians.

We don't even know is running the Iranian regime but Trump is open to negotiating with them and then when the Atlantic asked him if he was interested in providing military support for you know dissidents for the exact word they use but you know anti-regime.

Groups in the streets of Tehran Trump was very hedging on that you know it's going to like well you know well to see what happens right basically so it's like okay I mean that's that's not exactly a signal to people who are hoping for a total you know for freedom blossoming in Tehran it's not exactly a signal they're going to have America on their side

if you just look at Trump's words and that answer and so you know that that you know whatever you think about that you know if the reality is that Trump you know gets out of this in a similar fashion to Venezuela and that there's no additional fallout addition to the three Americans we've already lost and you know the you know the girls school that the girls have already killed like if there's no additional fallout then you know I don't know maybe this doesn't resonate but like that's not how things have gone to the Middle East.

And you know it's better than any of you we've talked about this before it's like form the midterm elections are usually not about foreign policy they're not about foreign policy till they are right I can they're not they haven't traditionally been about foreign policy people traditionally don't care about it but sometimes they do like they cared about it at the end of the Cold War you know it was important to Reagan and HW Bush and they cared about it and the old rooms of Iraq was important to the Democrats winning you know so like it can matter and and I think that the extent how much it matters domestically.

You know it's going to be dependent on what happens over the next weeks.

You know I want to echo two of your points what one sort of a mega point you know a sort of a macro point I guess yeah things are so event dependent as you put it that's a good term in wars I mean reality matters as the way I think right you know we're so used to a politics of spin and of culture war and of bullshit to some degree and of who's the cleverest that faking you know a crisis that isn't real

or or it using a cultural symbol it's you know as a way of bashing your opponents I mean of course all that can matter a little bit in the politics of wartime but it's swamped and this was I've won my experience obviously someone was following closely Iraq but it's been true in other words everything is swamp by just what happens actually and what the results are and so I think there's probably a little too much actually analysis of you know culture war side of we're beyond this is not a culture war this is not a culture war

this is a real war and yeah so I think that's a very really an important point I would also say just on the democracies I don't like with vendors well more so even than with vendors well maybe not more so at least similarly I mean I was happy to be with totally my chance at something yesterday with a really wonderful person who left her on that has that people very close very keep hard of the human rights and disability has lost you know relatives to assassination attempts not bad.

It's not just one sadly by by this regime the one can't begrudge people the exhilaration obviously at the how many is death and at the death of others who were murdered so many people including just the last two months right maybe 30,000 or something erotic and seeking freedom so on the one hand there's this and I personally feel this and so it makes one you know maybe okay I didn't like the way they went to war and I thought Congress had authorized it and I don't trust Trump but on the other this is really

a thing I think that so much of that to the depends on where we are a week or a month or two months from now right and sort of are we in a is it a beginning of doesn't have to be a media but the beginning of a birth of freedom or something like war freedom let's just say in Iran or is it a transfer to the some other IRGC head that you and I haven't heard of before but we'll know his name in a week and he'll be as brutal as how many or does it could weaken the regime over the medium term incidentally in terms of legitimacy but maybe not

right away so so many variables there I think but I think yeah I think some people on the on the left who are really you know just very sincerely and strongly anti war maybe it's not the underestimate the sense that a lot of Americans will feel some sympathy with the Iranians dancing in the streets into Iran at the you know killing of this brutal leader they've had to endure for decades for sure but and I feel sympathy with them and you know but

the end of the day it's like okay well what is this that are we fighting for them is that like there you know the Trump Trump didn't even make a case for this war under under that construct right so so I can simultaneously feel happy for Iranian dissidents that let our people that have fled Iran feel whose families photo on our

intergenerations later who are here in America who are celebrating on the streets you know because this regime that is brutalized their family and friends you know is is finally getting some payback I'm I'm here for that you know at an emotional level but like at a political level I just I don't think that there's support in the country for a war that's going to include lots of casualties you know to

you know try to further that cause I got special cause doesn't get further I mean that's right yeah it's one thing arguing from now and this is I mean I will people forget as someone said to you oh what's not like a rock because of what I was what we should

saying and said I'm West captured and that was a big moment people forget and people like me who were supporters of the war thought okay maybe

this really is a reflection point and the and and we'll have less resistance there in the country and domestically people will see

that it was worth getting rid of this really horrible brutal tyrant it was it was nice that it was captured and then tried and executed by the other

head it didn't save the fact that the war went badly right so I think that yes you said the real outcomes are so important and really can't be

fun and I think the shallowness I agree with you about you know I also bristle sometimes when I see like you know people you know I like like

shank and on his popular youtuber and some of these are kind of like you don't ever have to hand it to the eye at all right and you can be happy for

those you know who have been under under that oppressive regime that has killed you know tens tens tens of tons of thousands but I'll also like just

totally opposed to an administration getting us into this type of war without any without any play

I got out of support from the American people on that front without any plan like they've not made the case that this war is

about freedom for the Iranian people I mean Trump kind of said that like in a call after he'd already started the war he

didn't make that case in the build up for the war I don't think that there is mass popular support even within his own

coalition forget about within within the country for that meanwhile you know they are oppressing people

like they were sending people back to Iran who were Iranian dissidents like this like this administration doesn't care

I guess this is my point this administration doesn't care about Iranian distance and Iranian freedom and if there's

an imaginary other administration that was executing this war under that constructs I might have a different view

about it but like this administration doesn't they've sent people to die back to Iran because of their harsh

immigration policies they're not allowing refugees into this country for right now from Iran or anywhere else

and Trump doesn't really seem to care that much about like what happens with the Iranian people and he

wants a scalp he wants legacy he wants to do you know to do a BB ones he wants like that's he wants to

you know see things blow up because he's 12 right like and so it's hard to you know say that I'm four you

know it's hard to have you know to be in solidarity with people who are happy about this when like the

actual mission is not in line with what their stated what desires are I mean one could hope and I

do hope that you know despite Trump right now it could be right we end up just very you never know

what the future holds I would love for the I would love for there to be some dissident inside your

umbrella doesn't maybe the person who's been who's been telling Israel and the United States where

all the where all the clerics are you know it's a secret freedom fighter who's going to lead a coup

from internally and if that happens and you know Tehran is free again and you know I get to go

on a retirement trip to a free Tehran and you know that would be amazing but I just that's not

what Donald Trump's trying to do no and I will say you know maybe it was a rock rock well a

bit of a steak well it was a mistake and certainly setting it on all the ground troops you know

it's what led to so many casualties on our for the U.S. and some ways for the Iraqis as well

as a real war but on the other hand there was a reason we sent to the I wasn't to silly like hey

let's send in ground troops don't want to want to do people would have preferred they really was

a real analysis that you can't do regime change and secure and help manage that without having

boots on the ground now maybe that's wrong maybe you can do the bombing and then it just kind of

works out and I as I say I hope it does but yeah it seems like that's a little that would be good

luck but you can't count on that um in war I get yeah at all so what about the um I do think

also do you think the congressional you've made this point actually I think you did yesterday

uh on the with Sarah and JVL and and and in general hurtling the um the lack of congressional

buy and it sounds like one of these things that people say in Washington it doesn't really matter

but it did you know the fact is Iraq which went badly doesn't kid ourselves we we were three months

in the weekly standard was calling for big with McCain for a big increase too so you can see

it was going badly they denied it for quite a while Bush was still helped over the next year by

the fact that democrats had voted for the war yeah and the proof of course was the 2024 it was

a presidential campaign the war began in03 so it wasn't a mid-year situation but uh 18 months

after the war had begun uh Bush John Kerry had voted for the war John Kerry had to then explain

that he voted for but he also voted against it and you know there is something just on the pure

politics uh Trump does not have that cover it seems to be it gets difficult right yeah he doesn't

have to cover two but just one final thing on the freedom point because we just I just saw this

post I need to rant about it by bike waltz former national security advisor where he posted

in reaction to these three troops American troops that have died we don't know the details about that

yet yeah his former national security advisor still in the administration like waltz tweets freedom

isn't free america flag I'm like okay well wait a minute but who's like whose freedom is he

talking about like are we are we fighting for the freedom of the Iranian people and and we're

willing to sacrifice america lies for that you know that's an I that's a that's a mission that's

something that's an ideology there's some people who are for that but I but that's not the state

of the aim of this administration certainly the those three young men or women or whoever the

soldiers will remain to be seen who died certainly the die for the freedom of america like the freedom

of america was not at threat in this war and so again I just think that they're it's just a very muddled

case that they're trying to make right now that that I think that I think complicates it and that

relates to the health stuff like I think there are probably some democrats that would be for this

and you saw Greg landsman and and and Jared Moskowitz a couple others who put out statements

I'm putting federal men kind of another category because he's just kind of acting like a crypto

republican basically at this point but like the others there have been a couple others that I

think would be for a mission in Iran if it was well defined and you know it was clear what the

goals were they're democratic hawks so it would be for that but like how could you be for that

with how they've done how they've managed this right again they haven't made a case they haven't

and so I do think it limits the ability I mean there's a technical legal limit which is what 90 days

on on you know the war without congressional authorization that Trump hasn't really cared that

much about hasn't cared at all about you know legal limits on on his behavior but you know so I

do think there's some political limits in the fact that they just not can have democratic support

and some legal limits potentially as well with Congress now last thing just on the democrats and

we'll see how this goes is I and I I keep reiterating this because I feel like maybe I have some

credibility to mention this is somebody who might be sympathetic to a war for freedom overseas

in a different context which is like they're you know even if there's some positive outcomes of

this like you cannot trust Trump it started anything that starts based on lies and corrupt means

you know it's gonna it's gonna bear the fruit of that and I think that the democrats just

would benefit from being very clearly opposed to it and I do think that they're and it's fine to

say I told a community is a bad guy and I celebrate with those you know who our families are you

know who were victimized by his oppression like that said no war with Iran we can't we are not

going to war with Iran we oppose this and I think that it's some clear messaging and probably

benefit to the democrats they feel a little mixed on this that's very interesting I was gonna ask

you about that but you you you cover that I preemptive your question it was good though and what

was one foot on that and I want to come back then I want to come back to walls and then

I made it about yeah uh the the macro coalition but I mean on the democrats I guess if they vote

for a of the war power's resolution that I guess is going to come up this coming week uh they're

I mean they could be accused of a year undercutting our our troops who were fighting as they're

fighting but in fact am I right that the war power's resolution gives the troop president and

gives the military 60 days at least yeah 90 I think it was 60 to 90 I think they can come back

of course and get the authorization so I think the democrats can pretty plausibly say we're not

undercutting anything we just trumped himself and said this should be a pretty shouldn't be an endless

of war and we're trying to make sure that that's the case we're also trying to get an actual

congressional debate if it turns out that we have longer requirements to stay I think that's right

yeah yeah the legal do you think they're not great risk as it were just for I think that some

democratic politicians think that they're a great risk of that um but I don't think so I again

like there there are certain communities of people um you know uh I mean most obviously

Jewish Americans and Iranian Americans who have like a particular stake in this

uh if there's another you know there are also you know people that are just very interested in

foreign policy and the foreign policy of the Middle East like college educated type Republican

you know uh hawks like besides that I just there isn't a lot of support for this because there

is no case made for right and and I think there are big points of trump's coalition which we'll

get to that that that are just naturally against this sort of thing and so to me if you're the democrats

I just don't see how like overthinking this and it you know is is sensible because even if there

is a good outcome which again we all hope for like is he gonna get a ton of credit for that like with

who like who want again with maybe with those those small groups that I mentioned and you know

maybe gets a small burst of turnout among Persian voters and Los Angeles I go whatever but you

know I just there isn't there isn't big support for this because he it's this is different than

Iraq in other sense so what you wonder about Iraq like but there was people made it people wanted

some retaliation to 9-11 and Bush made the case for it and in some of that case ended up being

like right but like that isn't what happened that's not what's happening here there there is no

popular support base for it there is some like put on your team jersey I hope trump kills bad

guys support for it but that's about it and as a long time supporter of it's you know

interventions abroad I would say personally if it's going to be I'm not against as a uniform

matter intervening for the sake of freedom of others but you then do need to get congressional

support you cannot the president has some ability to use the U.S. forces obviously against an

immediate threat against an urgent threat and retaliation without getting congressional support at

least ahead of time I think that's probably correct yeah but this it if you're going to make it

about helping free the American people the American public and the Congress their representatives of

Congress are entitled to just to have a vote on whether they want American uh young American

men and women to be put in arms way before that I say I might vote for that personally I would

have voted for it with Sudan in 1994 for god's sake but but you you can't just do it as president

based on this use it without any congressional vote or without even any sort of implicit let's

say Sanctuary for the American public because you've made this case and based on the state of

case being a lot tolerate a cure from 2311 racing victory lane yeah it's even better with

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case was like this was new clear you have to abstract because we had some risk to you know

like it was a lot so yeah that's important to say it that wasn't deep enough yeah

wasn't seriously I mean yeah yeah so the the wall's thing if I could just say so that just before

coming on to is the US ambassador to the U.N. so he's speaking for the administration for

his own reason not just uh he was fired as a supervisor but he's not a private citizen

I find it it's a little grotesque isn't it I don't mean to you know it's a tweet so whatever

freedom isn't was freedom freedom isn't free you don't preface that by deepest condolences to the

uh family or you know we we so admire our brave uh soldier sailor Marines and airmen who are in

this and then of course you know sadly freedom isn't I mean just this kind of one sentence like

that takes care of it I feel like people will not be effect that's general attitude the

Trump administration is going to take to casualties in this war whether certainly American

servicemen or women but also more broadly to civilian casualties and casualties in

Israel and elsewhere and uh possible threats to Americans civilians for that matter obviously

and in the Middle East their attitude is this kind of cavalier well freedom isn't free I don't know

that's not good it's glib it's good and also again we don't it was kind of glib in 2002 but like

we had been attacked you know the the you know I mean terrorists had taken out the world's race

centers you know the Twin Towers or other and um uh you know uh attacked the Pentagon right and so

there was a plausible concern for American freedom at that point there's like no plausible

concern for that for American freedom in this in this mission yeah so that's important you have

to make another you have to make another case for it uh these shots sort of nods too with the you

know somehow the missiles but I mean that's just silly really what it's totally silly and these

the missiles we're just what we're watching how in again and it's been impressive from just a

military standpoint uh watching how incapacitated Iran is now and we'll see you know to to to

can they uh this is not my area of expertise will they change tactics will they adjust figure it out

but like I the missiles that they have can barely hit the Arab states in the region I mean you

know it seems like that the Bahrain has taken it the worst probably because they have the least

air air defense systems like they're not even involved in this war and you know beyond having a

US base and so like you cannot pause we say that America was a threat from from the missiles so

one other thing I should have mentioned at the top of the political if you don't mind there's just

also kind of crass compared to obviously you know the death of three Americans and and other

other deaths that have been results of this um is the economic impact depending on how long this

goes is also real you know um Iran you know there's there's a Bloomberg report about what you know

closing the straight of our moves could do in oil prices those could go up significantly

I know as I saw one analysis it said basically you know inflation's at 2.0 something percent right

now could go up to 4 percent and you have that happening simultaneously with Trump having this

new Fed chair coming in that has the mandate to decrease interest rates uh you know uh and this

is a small issue compared to life or death but like it's again as political things matter if you

get to a point where we get back into an inflationary place because of this I just I think the

overwhelming majority of the American people are gonna be like what it what what like what was

this for like what like when inflation is back now American troops have died and I don't even

understand what the mission is like I just think that that is you know I think there's some real

dicey politics for him ahead so let's finish up on the two parties so the Democrats you think

but you should say word more about it you we's I'm they'll be sniping back and forth and

Shroomer's not being aggressive enough and how there's a being too dismissive of freedom for the

Iranian people who you think they basically can hang together and just being against this as

unjustified and unexplained and and unwarranted and then say a word also about the Republicans

in the Magical Coalition yeah again and I think that it's fine for there to be different

Democrats who have different types of um instincts or interests as far as what America's role in

the world should be and it's fine to you know throat clear a little bit about how you know you do

believe that America should be more uh you know aggressive and and opposing um

autocracies and blood and support allies well I like there are ways to talk about this if you're

a Democrat and say like you know state your values while also stating that as a practical matter

like this war is it's crazy I could this not and as it is based upon it is illegal or I mean

it will end up being illegal depending on how long it goes and um it also is without purpose

I was out of stated purpose at least for the American people like if you have to guess what

the purpose of the war is and try to like read tea leaves and criminology like that like that is not

something the Democrats should be supporting um because then the Democrats don't even know what's

happening like behind the scenes and what kind of deals Trump and Whitcoff and Kushner and DB like

you know Trump is not working with them candidly right so there's just no rationale for being for

this or caveatting in my opinion for the Democrats the maggots thing is tougher because I think

there will be a rally around Trump not rally around the flag effect in in mega media you already see

this um you know you have these two strains of mega like the American first nationalism versus like

the machismo I think about when you when you made me wear that read that umberto echo you are

fascism like machismo and like the strength um is is a big part of the fascist instinct and like

I think that kind of overtakes a little bit in moments like this the you know nationalist impulse um

and so I think that there will be a big rally around Trump among mega elected officials

and among a lot of his supporters but I think there's going to be some pretty key groups that don't

rally around him and I think some of the latest people that came into the coalition I just I expect

that you know the comedian podcast space like I think that those guys are going to be uniformly

against this for the most part um a lot of the younger voters that he won over um who thought that

he was the peace candidate which is we can do a whole nother conversation about how he pulled that

con off but some of them believed him I think those folks are off the ship you'll see some

like a very small portion of the house I think that there's a in the house representatives and

there's a small like decently genuine isolationist caucus at this point among the Republicans but

it's pretty pretty small um but that's meaningful they only have a two-seat house majority so

that could potentially be meaningful if if if this thing goes to Congress and um yeah I get the

end of the day I just don't I don't see what the political benefit for Trump ends up being

among voters and I think that that he ends up getting you know staving off the

that like very slow a separation from him that you were starting to see from right wing media as

well as some on the hill but that's that's kind of it I don't know what do you what do you think

that you see in the magazine I sort of agree I think there will be a rally to Trump and he's been

pretty good at suppressing areas where this should have been to send because of people's

previously stated views he's been pretty good at having suppressing that and having people rally

to him but again a pretty a pretty event dependent it wouldn't take too many things going too

wrong for a much bigger chunk of that coalition yeah hey what hey you know may a larger tailed green

for now is a bit of an outlier and there are a few people like her but there could be a lot more

I mean we've seen that in other wars as well obviously right it starts slow and can accelerate

pretty fast I mean so again this is not a rock the lot of differences with the rock you know

there'll be some less third but that was I bushes like political problems with his own base came

as a combination of like Iraq and compared Myers and manager like this all was happening and this

began in the second term like people you know I like there's only so much appetite for this stuff

and Trump capitalized like a lot of those people that were upset with Bush or Trump's biggest

supporters and so you know eventually there I do think there's some risk here you know of that

dependent we will see it all unfold over days and weeks and I think I do think it's actually

I'm not just touting us at the bulwark but I think this is a case where a woman wants to come back

almost every day to it because it is a event it's dependent right so you can't sort of say

some other issues we can analyze I don't know some cultural issue and you come back to it in two

weeks and probably you know update right but I think we need to update this and we will and I will

actually join you tomorrow right on you well let's see how much has changed in 24 hours but I

suspect a lot will have and that's a need will always be clearer but if somebody zigs and then

zags back the other way and wars I'm very always very struck by that you know it's coming well

it's not going well this part's going well you know but that's what it's important to follow and

especially it really is important for the country obviously so it's important to follow and

pretty as much as we can you know so thank you for taking time out of your Sunday to join me and

I'll take time out of my Monday to join you tomorrow so thanks thanks thanks all of you for joining us

hey it's Cole Swindell after I give everything I've got to land a perfect vocal I usually take five

before jumping into the next track and I've learned exactly how to recharge in that time some

folks grab coffee I hit a quick good looks then next thing you know the break is just as fun as

land down the track the better break makes for a better take need a break let's chumbo no purchase

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