Which states to watch as the battle for Senate control heats up ahead of 2026 midterms

Much of the focus this midterm season has been on the fight for the U.S. House, with

redistricting battles dominating the headlines.

But this week also brought new developments in the race for the U.S. Senate.

Our congressional correspondent, Lisa Desjardins, has more.

The upward chamber with direct power over Supreme Court and other nominations is increasingly

in the 2026 conversation.

A total of 35 Senate seats will be on the ballot, but just 11 are rated as remotely competitive

by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

Republicans in red are on defense in more of those seats than Democrats, but Democrats

need a long shot sweep, a net gain of four seats to take control of the chamber.

For a closer look, we're joined by Jessica Taylor, Senate and Governor's Editor at the

Cook Political Report.

Thank you for joining us, Jessica.

Great to be here, Lisa.

Let's start with Maine.

We had some news there this week when the Democrat candidate of choice, Governor Janet

Mills dropped out.

It now looks like progressive, upstart candidate Graham Platner, who is an oyster farmer and

a retired Marine, will be the one to face off with Susan Collins Republican in the fall.

He has brought a lot of passionate supporters to the table, but he also has controversy,

past comments, blaming sexual assault survivors, and also a tattoo that was also a past Nazi

symbol.

He's apologized for those things.

This is all a long build up to a question.

You had rated this race in Maine as a toss-up.

Is it still a toss-up?

It is still a toss-up, and I think that's because of the national environment.

Susan Collins' seat, she's the only Republican defending a seat that Harris carried.

In fact, Republicans have not won Maine at the presidential level since 1988.

So it's been a while, and she's managed to win the seat.

She's the only person, you know, she's Democrats' white whale, really, that she's been able

to hold this seat even at times when Trump carried her seat in 2020.

But Platner is a risky choice.

As you said, he brings a lot of energy.

He's, they talk about sort of this movement that he's created there in Maine, and outsting

the sitting governor is not easy.

But it's not just those comments that, you know, Mills did not have the money to prosecute

the case against him.

Republicans will, they've already reserved millions of dollars in advertising.

So if this backfires against Democrats, that's a real problem for them as they need to

get these four seats.

Let's talk about that.

As we've said, there's four seats that need to switch net for Democrats, and if we look

at the map here again, there's roughly 11 seats that you say are in play.

But, you know, really, there's only three toss-ups at this point.

How realistic is it for Democrats to try and take over the chamber, to net for, and where

do they need to look?

Democrats have to pitch a perfect game.

It is now within the realm of possibility, which I could not say at this time a year ago.

And that's because they've recruited successful candidates in states that I think could only

put their seats into play.

Now, someone like the former Governor Roy Cooper and North Carolina, that's a race we

actually recently moved from toss-up to lean Democrats.

So that gets them one pickup if that race, if he continues to have a lead in that contest.

Ohio, former Ohio Senator Sheridan Brown, we've recently moved that race from lean Republican

to toss-up.

He lost last cycle, but this is a much better political environment for him.

And then they were able to get someone like former Congresswoman Mary Peltola in Alaska.

We rate that race as lean Republican.

So that race needs to move a little bit more onto the map for them to get to four, but

again, that means that they keep, that they are able to flip main.

And then Democrats also, they're playing defense in places, upstate like Georgia.

We moved that one to lean Democrat as well recently, so that's the state that they're

looking better in.

But a state like Michigan, where they have a very messy primary that's not going to

be over until August.

So there's minefields for Democrats on this map still as well.

Let's talk about Texas.

I know it is the perennial question for Democrats, almost a siren call for them that they hope

to win a Senate seat in Texas, but we have a vicious primary there.

Does that help Democrats?

Is this the year I hesitate to ask where Democrats have a chance in the Senate?

I feel like for as long as I've been doing this, which is almost two decades, Democrats

have been talking about turning Texas blue.

But if Paxton defeats Kornin in that primary, the sitting Senator John Kornin, the Attorney

General Ken Paxton.

Yeah.

Then that makes it that much easier, because we're talking about, you know, Grand Planner's

baggage in Maine.

Ken Paxton has a ton of baggage.

He was impeached.

There's questions.

His wife, he's a very evangelical, has an evangelical base in the state.

His wife left him for biblical reasons, which were interpreted as he had multiple affairs.

And so James Taleriko has had a lot of money, the Democratic nominee, but he's going to

need it because Texas is such an expensive state.

Was the state that's a little bit off the grid that you're watching that people might

not be talking about?

I was my canary in the coal mine.

There is a really interesting governor's race there where actually Republicans polling

even has the Democrat, Rob Sand, who's the state auditor up there.

And that is an open Senate seat as well.

Joni Ernst is retiring.

Iowa is a state that's been hit hard by tariffs, hit hard by soybeans that they haven't

been able to trade to China.

So even though it's a very Republican state, could there be enough things that could go

right there?

National Democrats would feel a lot better if it's Josh Turek, who's a four-time Paralympian,

two-time gold medal winner.

He's in his wheel chair from Spina Bifida that he contracted because of his father's

service in Vietnam and Agent Orange.

He's one, he's a state representative who's one in red areas.

They feel much better about that matchup against Ashley Henson, who's the Republican Congresswoman.

So that's a state that could be more on the map.

She's a strong campaigner, but I think Republicans, too, they can't take anything for granted

and not to place where I think they're looking as well.

Exactly.

It's the national environment.

He's down to Trump that really does and where his approval ratings are, where gas prices

are, what's happening with Iran in a couple of months as we get closer to voters going

to the polls.

Jessica Taylor, as we get closer, we'll be hoping to talk to you more and more.

Excellent.

Thank you, Lisa.