Who Will Win the South Region: Illinois or Florida?

I'm Mark Salinger, producer and one of the hosts of the Moth podcast.

For nearly two decades, the Moth has brought live storytelling to stages around the world

and to millions of listeners.

These are real people telling true stories from their lives.

Stories about a lost family recipe, about working to free a wrongfully convicted man,

about realizing you need to leave your May-December romance.

Stories that will move you, surprise you, make you laugh, stories you can't forget.

Join us.

Follow and listen to the Moth wherever you get your podcasts.

As the news been getting you down, I'm Megan McCartle, and I'm here to help.

I'm the host of a news show from Washington Post Opinion, called Reasonably Optimistic.

And it's an antidote to the pessimism that's riddling America right now.

Every Wednesday, I'm going to talk to people who see a path forward.

It does seem to me that there is some awakening of a desire to act together to solve problems

where they are.

You know, I am a believer in America and it's worth fighting for.

Join me Wednesdays on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

Hey, this is John Rothstein, the host of Inside College Basketball Now,

part of the CBS Sports Podcast Network reminding you that our show is going ramp up over the next two months.

That's because we're counting down a selection Sunday and March madness.

We will be coming to you each and every week with multiple episodes,

featuring exclusive interviews with the biggest and best names in the sport.

It's the all-you-can-eat buffet for college basketball junkies everywhere.

Follow and listen to Inside College Basketball Now on the free Odyssey app

or wherever you get your podcasts.

Sponsored by Coast One Financial Group.

We're listening to Westwood One Sports on WFAN FMHD to New York,

and Odyssey Sports Station.

Always live on the free Odyssey app.

The biggest names in the business are on you better you bet with Nick Costos.

Hey, this is Joe Bock, and you have done it.

You have found it.

You are listening to you better you bet.

Great decision.

Hi, this is Kevin Harlan, a CBS Westwood One and TNT.

And I'm listening as you do every day to you better you bet with the most handsome single man in the radio business.

A man who, if I was not married for 38 years, I might consider myself the kind of guy that can electrify a listening audience

and a crowd of bystanders watching him do what he does so well each and every day.

Continue to listen right here on you better you bet.

This is you better you bet on Westwood One Sports brought to you by BEMGM.

You wonderful sports Wednesday edition of you better you bet rolls on Nick Costos are amazing crew.

And you here on Westwood One Sports.

Man, I love that first hour of the show.

Why are we supposed to care as Americans about the world baseball classic?

If the San Diego Padres are dictating whether or not we win or lose.

Why are we supposed to care?

Why should I give such a damn next time if this is what it's going to be?

Figure it out.

We're don't and then we can we can dispense with all the pomp and circumstance next time around.

But what's a great event the world baseball classic may could you imagine like the Dominican Republic

or like Venezuela making its decisions based on what the major leagues say?

Come on really stop it stop it and let the show with the Jalen Waddle trade from the Miami Dolphins to Denver Broncos.

Why I like it for Denver skill still skeptical of Denver because you know,

bone X is their quarterback, but I think it's a worthy swing for the Broncos to take.

And you got to love it if you're a Miami Dolphins fan.

You take your medicine for one year and next year way more salary cap space and you can actually start building this out

and trying to get a contender rolling at South Beach with new GM John Eric Sullivan and new head coach Jeff Hathley.

Three tremendous guest still to come all on the NCAA tournament Seth Greenberg from ESPN 20 minutes from now.

John Fanta from NBC sports 60 minutes from now and Joe Forten ball also in the final hour of the show ESPN sports betting analyst.

And let's start talking and see double a tournament.

Right now we are 26 hours away.

Little more than 20 26 hours and 13 minutes away.

What's what's the tip to first tip time?

Oh, I was the TCU 1215 Eastern tomorrow.

Oh man.

Do you?

I'll lead the show with the tomorrow, but just man, try and convince me that this isn't the best.

The NCAA tournament round number one.

Honestly, it's enough to bring a grown man, a grown sports fan to tears thinking about it.

So I'm thinking about it last night as one does.

You know, my my wife is watching version river on Netflix like an actual like terrible show, but I guess it's whatever.

I watch some bad shows also as she's watching version river.

I got the baseball game on mute and I'm thinking about the NCAA tournament in bed as one does when you're laying in bed next to your wife thinking about the NCAA tournament.

And I'm not even saying that ironically, I think that is what a lot of men think about this time of year when they're laying in bed next to their significant other.

And what I'm thinking about is, you know, my initial thoughts on the tournament on Sunday night after a selection Sunday.

And then what we talked about, both me in a solo fashion like I am right now or when we brought Tyler and Kenny on the show on Monday, as to how I see the bracket playing out.

And I'm kind of, you know, relitigating it in my head because, you know, we don't, I don't have to make a decision on Monday.

I don't have to make decisions right now.

I have to make my decisions in the next 26 hours.

So what do I feel differently about?

From Monday to right now.

And when I really, really considered that a couple of things came to mind.

The first is in the South region.

And before I talk about what the difference is, I want to give you our listeners and viewers the current top four, the odds market at bed MGM to win the national championship.

And this is going to be like the old Sesame Street game, which of these things is not like the other, I don't know if that's the tune that it carried. That's how I remember it.

Duke is your favorite plus 325.

I actually think Arizona should be the favorite, which is not there basically the same price, just saying like I think given Duke's, Duke's got some injury stuff going on.

And I, I said like three or four to the point that the last time I said it on Monday, I'm like, I think I'm saying this word too much.

Unimpeachable was the word I kept saying on Monday. That's a great political tie in there that Arizona is the most unimpeachable one seed, which doesn't mean that Duke stinks. It just means Duke's got injury concerns.

Duke plus 325.

Arizona plus 350.

Michigan plus 375. So that's the one seed in the east, the one seed in the west, and the one seed in the Midwest, and then Florida is next up, the reigning defending national champion Florida Gators, the one seed in the South region at seven to one.

And at other domestic sports books, we're only going to tell you what bed MGM has because they sponsor us. And that's who we love. We love that MGM. The price is even longer for the Florida Gators.

So the betting opinion that has been developed over the last few days since selection Sunday is that there is a separate and whether you listening or viewing watching the show, whether you bet or not, I think this is valuable information and valuable context, because there is a bleep ton of money being bet into these markets, it doesn't have to be right, but it tells you what really smart people are thinking, right?

And what they are thinking and what they are saying, not with their words, but with their money, is that there is a difference between the top three teams in the Florida Gators, that Duke, whatever order you want to put them in, and honestly, I would have Duke 3 of 3 because of the injury concerns. That's me, and we'll talk about that in a little bit.

Duke, Arizona, Michigan, draw line, Florida Gators, and do you have another team that you want to put in that grouping with Florida, and maybe you disagree, and maybe you think Florida is the best or Florida should be up there, which case you should bet Florida to win the national championship because the price is way different.

Do you think Florida is as good, 3108404910, chime in on YouTube, youtube.com, backslash at the costos, tweet me at the costos, THE, KOS, TOS.

After what we saw in the SEC tournaments, when Florida got annihilated by Vanderbilt in the semi-final, 91-74, when Vandy's guard play, absolutely outshine Florida's back court, right?

I think it really laid eyes on the fact and shone light on the fact, shone, shined. I have a college degree. Shined, I think, is appropriate. Like Sean Figgins, shined light on the fact that Florida's back court is not nearly as good as it was last year when the Gators won the national championship.

Like, that is not an opinion. What I am saying is fact. That doesn't mean Florida can't or won't win the national championship. But I think what it means is, as we sit down with our brackets, and we want to make bets, and we conceptualize how this NCAA tournament is going to go.

If you're trying to answer the question, which one seed gets bounced first? Of course, it can be Arizona. Of course, of course, it can be Michigan. Of course, it can be Duke. Crazy things happen every year in the NCAA tournament.

But what's the most likely outcome there? The most likely one seed to get bounced early. It has to be Florida, right? Even if we're building in percent chances for the other three to get bounced first, it's not 100 percent, which is the most likely.

Both the betting market and kind of our own or my own at least intuitive reasoning as a gigantic college basketball fan, someone who watches a ton of games loves talking and thinking about the sport leads you to the Florida Gators.

So if that's true, let's consider the teams in this region and teams that can potentially knock off Florida and Dan Turner if we could get the bracket put up, that would be great. The South region here for people that are watching the show to follow along.

So Vanderbilt is the five in this region, right? And they're in like the pod if we're going to call it like I know pods are generally just like groups of four teams, but let's just group it into like the top half in the bottom half of the bracket. Van D's on the top half with Florida as the five Nebraska's the four.

I'm not into Nebraska at all. So even if Nebraska gets gets past Troy and I'll have a bet on Troy in that game, I like Van D to beat Nebraska.

So let's say Florida, we get Florida Vandy in the sweet 16.

Would it really really surprise anybody if Van D beat them again? I'm not saying it's guaranteed, but it would really, would it really shock you if that happens.

So there's a potential upsettler for the Florida Gators and it's not like we're conjuring something out of thin air. They literally lost to Vanderbilt last week.

Now, like two months ago, like last week, they lost to Vandy and got slammed by Vandy.

And then there's the bottom half of the bracket.

And here's what I think I may have gotten wrong.

So I said on Monday, I think Houston's gone to the final four.

And I don't really see a scenario where we don't get Houston and Illinois in the sweet 16 to go to the regional final to play a likely either Florida or Vanderbilt, right?

North Carolina is the sixth. North Carolina is without his best player, Caleb Wilson. North Carolina could lose to VCU. That could happen, right?

North Carolina, I think it's a pretty weak six seed.

St. Mary's in A&M, I would be stunned if either of those two teams beat Houston.

So I think we are very likely to get Illinois and Houston.

And I feel like after talking to a bunch of really smart people.

And I will give a tip of the cap to my old co-host on you better, you bet Ken Barkley.

Not that like he thinks Illinois is guaranteed to beat Houston or win the region like I respect Ken.

I respect many people in the college basketball space.

And I think upon further review and reading and listening and watching because I love this stuff, right?

And not just because I love it and I love to watch and I love to talk about it like I like to bet and I love filling out brackets, right?

I think I may have been too dismissive of Illinois in Illinois's potential.

Now, I'm never going to be the type of guy that like drags the show down with statistics because you the listener and viewer probably don't care.

And you're unaware of it. It doesn't matter. But what I'll just say is this.

You'll hear Ken Palm, Ken Palm Roy is the guy's name.

He was like the godfather of college basketball analytics.

Ken Palm will get referenced a lot.

I'll just say Ken Palm has Illinois is the seventh best team in the country.

Illinois is a three seed but the implication being Illinois is in between what like nine and 12, right?

So Illinois maybe like a little better than it's seeding indicates.

So you have that right off the jump.

You have Illinois and they are boom bust, right?

Mr. Boom Bostic you Illinois is a boom bust team

where they could if Illinois played Houston and scored and I know Houston's defense is good.

I understand if Illinois scored 85 points in that game.

Would anyone really be shocked?

In the same way, by the way, then it wouldn't be shocking if Houston shot.

They just couldn't make any shots from three the entire game.

And we've seen that happen with Illinois over the course of the season.

How about this as far as Illinois is concerned?

So Illinois is a bunch of losses this year.

A couple of them are like worthy losses, right?

Where they kind of get their asses handed to them, right?

They lose by 15 to Yukon.

They lose by 15 to 14 to Michigan.

No shame in that, right?

A four point loss to Alabama.

Over time losses to Michigan state,

two to Wisconsin, including in the big 10 tournament and to UCLA.

What if those games go differently?

What seed is Illinois?

This doesn't mean that Illinois is going to the final four or going to win the national championship.

But the thing that I'm saying is that I feel like, upon further review,

I may have dismissed the alumni.

And when you lay bare these facts, these are facts that I'm giving to you.

It kind of makes me feel like Illinois is way more live against Houston

than I've given them credit for.

And given the star power that Illinois had, that Keaton Wagler is an absolute stud.

Like we talked about Stoy Ockovich last March when he was playing for Cal.

You know, Paige and Sonny actually is.

Okay.

Let's just say, right, I'm creating a scenario.

Let's say that Illinois beats Houston.

And let's say that Florida gets five Vanderbilt.

Illinois versus Florida.

You telling me Illinois can't win that game?

They absolutely can.

They absolutely can.

And if you're betting, you're filling out a bracket.

Ask yourself this question, and this is more of a bracket question, right?

Can be a betting question, but especially for brackets, right?

And I think if I'm constructing a pie chart of our audience,

I'm guessing that more of the pie is constructed by brackets as opposed to betting,

even though I'm sure a lot of the audience bets, right?

Who do you think the majority of people in your pool are going to take

to go to the final four out of the South region?

Probably Florida, right?

And if not Florida,

and Houston,

it's a potential pivot point.

I'm not guaranteeing Illinois gets there.

But I am saying, I think that I made a mistake on Monday

by dismissing the Align Eye.

And Illinois's chances to either get to the elite eight,

or even get to the final four.

3108404910 youtube.com backslash at the costos.

Man, we got great guest talking college hoops on today's show.

John Fanta, next hour, Joe Fortenbaugh, next hour.

But coming up next, as in five minutes from now,

Seth Greenberg from ESPN breaking down the NCAA tournament,

he or on Westwood One Sports, don't go anywhere.

In deed presents, hires you can't afford to get wrong,

like a cyber security engineer at a publicly traded company.

We've been hacked through our firewall.

How is that even possible?

They got my password.

Please don't tell me your password was password.

It's actually password one.

This is what happens when you don't sponsor your job on Indeed.

Next time, get matched with quality candidates with Indeed sponsor jobs.

Visit Indeed.com slash higher now and sponsor your job today.

My perfect day as sand saltwater and friends,

but my moderate to severe plaques rises can take me out of the moment.

Now I'm all in with clearer skin thanks to SkyRizzy,

RisenKism at Rizza, a prescription only 150mg injection for adults

who are candidates for systemic or phototherapy.

With SkyRizzy, most people saw a 90% clearer skin,

and many were even 100% plaque free at four months.

SkyRizzy is just four doses a year after two starter doses.

Don't use if allergic to SkyRizzy,

serious allergic reactions, increased infections,

or lower ability to fight that may occur.

Before treatment, get checked for infections and tuberculosis.

Tell your doctor about any flu-like symptoms or vaccines.

Thanks to SkyRizzy, there's nothing on my skin.

And that means everything.

Ask your doctor about SkyRizzy.

The number one dermatologist prescribed biologic in psoriasis.

Visit SkyRizzy.com or call 1-866 SkyRizzy to learn more.

At Navy Federal, we're a trusted partner of the military community.

And we're here to guide you through these uncertain times,

help you diversify your portfolio, and take control of your finances.

We offer a 13-month special certificate with a rate more than double the national average,

and members can access financial advisors from one of America's best financial advisory firms

awarded by USA Today.

The Bleacher Report app is your destination for sports.

Right now, the NBA is heating up,

March Manus is here, and MLB is almost back.

Every day there's a new headline, a new highlight, a new moment you've got to see for yourself.

That's why I stay locked in with the Bleacher Report app.

For me, it's about staying connected to my sports.

I could follow the teams I care about, get real-time scores,

breaking news, and highlights all in one place.

Download the Bleacher Report app today so you never miss a moment.