Who wins and why? Lions vs. Pies Preview | Strategy 2026 with Brent Sanderson (02.04.26)

The round starts tonight.

This Easter rounds let's hear a little bit

from Chris Fagan and Craig McRae as we assess tonight.

Crisis thing creates opportunity and it has been our history

and so we treat, we're treating the situation

that we're in at the moment in the same way.

I mean, the thing about it is,

it's our back line that's affected.

Everybody knows that.

Our midfield's still strong.

Our forward line's still strong.

So we're still putting a good team out on the field

and we're very optimistic about our chances tomorrow or not.

You're playing in some good opposition.

You want to bring your A game and, you know,

we've been to the Gava last couple of years going up there.

Knowing we're playing a really quality opposition

and going to have to be on their go.

It's a massive test and it's a great time to get it.

You know, everyone wants to find out where they are.

We find out bits about ourselves that are working,

not quite working throughout the early stages

and we'll find out a fair bit about our game on Thursday night.

A lot to look forward to at the Gava tonight's sound.

I love this game too.

And it's, I mean, it signals eastern out,

doesn't it, when we get to sit down tonight

and really enjoy these two teams play.

There's so much to play for it.

It feels like we're so early in the season,

but the pies, you know, they were great last week

and they've got lots to play for.

It's going to be an absolute rip.

So last week's winning profile for Colin with the game

didn't quite look like we imagined it was going to look.

No, no, it didn't.

No, and then we mentioned,

I said, what would Colin with the profile look like

if they were the winning team?

And I said that they needed to not get smashed around clearance.

I thought minus five would be a tipping point.

And to Colin with credit, they lost stoppage by two.

So that's a tick for Craig McCray.

I thought turnover score had to be 20 points plus

in Colin with favor, and that's exactly what it was.

So they got to turn over game in the scores

from turnover, which they wanted.

They had to have enormous forward pressure.

So plus 12, at least, tackles inside forward 50

and they got 10.

So that's another tick for Craig McCray's team.

And I thought they would want to try and achieve

100 plus uncontested marks.

And they got 90.

So Craig McCray would have been pretty happy

with the way that the profile ended up for him.

On the flip side though, GWS, I knew that would win clearance,

but I thought they had to win it by more than eight.

They won it by six.

So plus six around clearances.

Inside 50 years, I thought they had to be plus 10

and they were plus eight.

So they still got the ball in their front half the Giants.

But this is where I think the game was decided.

Scores from Stoppage.

I thought they had to get Colin would buy at least 40 points

and it was only 22.

So potentially that's where the game might have

been decided.

And then the other part was the turnover scores against.

So I thought they couldn't let Colin would score

more than 50 points from turnover

and Colin would score 52.

So the game sort of worked out in Colin Woods favor.

Craig McCray would have reviewed that game

and been pretty happy with the way that the profile played out.

Conversely, Adam Kingsley would have been disappointed.

Scores from Stoppage was disappointing.

And yeah, they just let the pies get on top

with those turnover scores.

Set that up for us beautifully.

All right, so what's Craig McCray focusing on this week?

Yeah, I think when Craig McCray will be looking at Brisbane,

I mean, every coach would be concerned

about the depth in Brisbane's midfield.

So they are dominating clearance.

Their contested method is excellent.

And they're just so consistent

when they dial up their pressure.

We see Dunkley and Barry play more specific roles,

but you get the Ashcrofts and Neil.

They provide that class and creativity.

Their ball movement is so sharp in there.

They're always so decisive with the ball.

They're really urgent.

I think they move the ball so quickly out of their midfield.

And the thing I love about Brisbane,

I know Fagans taught those mids to play

with great defensive method as well.

So they run both ways.

You see them attack with so much flair,

but I love how they get back defensively as well.

So that'll be a headache this week

for Craig McCray and how he prepares for the game tonight.

He'll also be concerned about Brisbane's interceptability.

So they have been scored against so far this year, Brisbane.

They are giving up some bigger scores,

but typically they've got very few weaknesses

in their team defense.

They're front half pressure.

They force turnovers.

They're a powerful running team.

They cover the ground so well to our number.

And when they're forwards, not just kicking goals,

but when they're pressuring those exits,

they create so many turnovers.

So they play all phases.

And what we have seen is that Brisbane's

can also shut down a game.

They can prevent you from transitioning.

They're so versatile, they're so adaptable.

The only concern really, you know,

Harris Andrews has been out

and now they lose gardener.

So they're depth will be tested behind the ball.

So yeah, I think Craig McCray would have spent the work

looking at ways to move the ball effectively

against what is a great team defense.

And the other thing I think finally

that Craig McCray will have to focus on is the start tonight.

That's critical against the lines at the GABA.

So I know both these teams are accustomed to big games

and finals type atmospheres.

And you know, the experience in tight games,

you used to give that advantage to Collingwood,

but now Brisbane have been involved

in so many ground finals and finals now.

They love these big games.

Collingwood will have probably more supporters

than Brisbane at the GABA.

That's what you find with this Easter Eve,

this good Friday Eve game is,

there'll be a lot of Collingwood supporters there.

There'll be big crowd noise for the pies.

They play well at the GABA,

but Craig McCray will be really pushing

that they start this game really fast.

Where could the pies get the lines?

Brisbane really rely on a kick and mark game.

It's fast and it often low risk,

but the pies pressure and their defensive system

is as good as anyone when they get it right.

So Brisbane average 107 marks per game this season.

I just don't think the pies will give them that.

I think the pies will aim to keep them low.

They should be aimed for a really chaotic, high pressure game.

Brisbane will want to stopage into kick mark offense.

So pies have got to stop that.

And Brisbane, for all their stoppage dominance,

they're only averaging 36 points a game

so far this season from stoppage.

So I think the pies might look to set up

a plus one defensively behind the stoppage

and maybe look to counter punch a little bit.

So I don't think they can win stoppage Collingwood,

but they've got to ensure that every stoppage loss

goes back the other way.

So if Brisbane win stoppage,

it goes to an outnumber

and then Collingwood can counter punch going the other way.

Bit like what the cats did for the sort of late 2000s

when they lost stoppage,

but had the run and punch coming back the other way.

So I mean, I should also,

we should also note Collingwood,

Collingwood can't score from stoppage either.

They're ranked 7, 8th in the competition at the moment.

So it might just be a challenge all too great for Collingwood

if Brisbane get that stoppage game that they'll be after.

How would Chris Vagan be preparing for Collingwood?

I think anytime you play Collingwood,

you have to be prepared for their defensive pressure

and their defensive system.

It remains a constant under Craig McCray.

They get a front half game.

They're a great intercept side, they pressure,

they force turnovers,

and they always reduce scores,

or they reduce the opposition from scoring

with their inside 50s.

And it's a really reliable brand.

Collingwood regardless of who's selected

and how they play,

they are such a good team at preventing scores.

But I just think their defensive system

relies so heavily on sustained pressure.

And if they cannot maintain that tackling pressure

or if their pressure and stoppage starts to drop,

if their midfield gets outworked and outrain,

I just think over long phases of this game,

Brisbane's attack might just wear down Collingwood's defensive system.

So that's I think what Chris Vagan will be aiming for

is that this game might eventually open up for Brisbane.

But I think the big advantage for Brisbane

and Chris Vagan's focus will be on clearance in midfield.

I think that's where he's got the advantage.

I think he knows it.

Despite the great seasons,

the two day cost brothers have had so far,

I just think the Brisbane's midfield might be a bit too strong

for them with their depth.

Any concerns for these sides really in the season?

Yeah, so when I'm looking at the profiles of both sides,

and I really like Brisbane,

obviously they've won the last two premierships,

but they have the worst turnover differential in the league

at this point.

So they are plus 10 per game.

They're turning over more than ever before.

And as much as I said, they're great around stoppaging clearance.

They are bottom four for contest wins post clearance.

So they're winning clearance,

but they're bottom four for winning

that next contest post clearance win, or loss.

So they're down with Eston and Richmond and Carlton

in post clearance contest win.

That's the red flags.

So yeah, winning clearance is not a problem,

but winning the next contest post clearance

is at the moment for Brisbane.

And the pies, it's been consistent,

but clearance loss and scores from stoppage has been a problem.

And their offence is ranked 13th at the moment.

So they're not getting inside 50 numbers.

So they're forwards are starved of opportunities.

And they are giving up too many marks defensively 111 per game,

which I've discussed.

That's going to be Brisbane's MO.

That's what they're going to come with.

They're kick and mark game.

So that's going to be the challenge for Collingwood.

They've got to get back to that defensive system.

That's typically been so reliable.

Who have you got?

Who wins and why?

I like Brisbane's midfield depth,

despite, as I said, both Josh and Nick Daycoff

have had really good starts at the season.

I just think if Collingwood's midfield

can somehow suppress or at least neutralise

the engine room of Brisbane,

it just gives them a big advantage.

But there's just so many weapons in there for Brisbane.

No, my club just still not back yet,

but you can't keep them all quiet.

There's so much depth and talent through there.

And I love Brisbane's small forwards.

I mean, the pies, they are physical,

but they're going to have their work cutting out

or limiting the impact of Brisbane's small forwards.

They're just so aggressive.

They've got the ability to be able to hit the scoreboard

from a variety of targets in there.

I know Brisbane won't,

their Brisbane's small forwards

won't get the space that they typically get

against other teams because Collingwood's defenders

are so physical.

But yeah, they're a hard working, hard running side.

I just think they might have Collingwood's defence.

I think their small forwards might find a way

to overcome the pies defence.

You still feel so whenever you play Collingwood,

you still need a near flawless gaming offence.

You know, even defensively in a round contest,

you can't take Collingwood lightly ever.

They love these opportunities.

They love it when they're the underdogs.

They love getting away from home.

And they've got a good record at the GABA, so.

So yeah, 12 months ago, I would have said,

you know, Collingwood, this is the game that they win.

They get up there as the underdogs and win,

but I don't know.

I think Brisbane now can rise to the occasion

as good as anyone.

So Pennery and More out concerns me a bit as well.

You know, there's so much experience going out for Collingwood.

So yeah, I've got the lines by a couple of goals in this one.

All right, the strategy for tonight's game at the GABA,

the Brisbane Lions and Collingwood's Shane Crawford

is with us tonight on AFL Nation.

So I'm straight to the airport after the show

to call it and to be part of it.

We will look to the superclash,

Carlton and North Melbourne tomorrow.

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