Why is Kotak’s Nilesh Shah suddenly bearish?

Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint, your weekday newscast that brings you five major stories from the world of business. It's Monday, November 11, 2024. This is Nelson John, let's get started.   You know it's a bear run when even fund managers are worried about earnings. Nilesh Shah, the managing director of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management, discussed about earnings growth estimates for FY26 with Mint’s Ram Sahgal. The current quarter is likely to benefit from higher government spending and seasonal sales, but earnings growth is projected to be only around 5%. This doesn't bode well for the markets, Shah said. The recent stimulus package by the Chinese government into its markets is another cause for worry. But he isn't entirely pessimistic: Shah said that despite recent selling by foreign investors, a rebound might be possible given the strong earnings growth of Indian companies over the past decade.   Today, COP29 commences in Azerbaijan. The Conference of Parties has established itself as the premier event to discuss global warming. Sayantan Bera writes that key discussions will focus on a climate finance deal essential for supporting poor and emerging economies in transitioning to clean energy. These countries will require an estimated $2.4 trillion annually. India, the third-largest emitter, is expected to advocate for increased climate finance while balancing its energy needs, he adds.   How will Donald Trump's victory impact your portfolio? In the west, the immediate aftermath of the results saw a spike in stocks on Nasdaq, as well as Bitcoin. However, Abhishek Mukherjee writes that this euphoria was short-lived. Investors began to assess the potential implications of Trump’s policies on the economy and markets worldwide, including in India — leading to massive sell-offs. Despite some initial concerns, the Indian IT sector stands to gain from Trump's proposed economic measures. Tighter immigration policies, however, may hurt Indian companies and they might have to hire US citizens to ease that burden.   The Reserve Bank of India doesn't want banks to dole out too many unsecured personal loans. This has spurned a surge in gold loans. September saw an increase of 51% in the disbursal of gold loans. Shayan Ghosh and Anshika Kayastha write that the outstanding gold loan base stands at ₹1.5 trillion. However, this is quite small in comparison to the personal gold loan base, which is a mammoth ₹14.3 trillion. Encouraged by a 16% increase in gold prices, borrowers are finding that a more attractive option over personal loans. There are concerns over this trend, and RBI might yet have something to say about the rapid increase in gold loans.   Electric three wheelers are about to get expensive. The government announced that the annual cap for subsidies for three wheelers has nearly been reached, as sales have exceeded expectations so far this year. Alisha Sachdev writes that this will increase the prices of EV three wheelers by 15 to 18%. Major manufacturers including Mahindra Last Mile Mobility and Bajaj Auto have expressed concerns about the impact on demand. They told Alisha that a temporary sales slump would be dangerous for the adoption of EV three wheelers in India. They are also lobbying the government to create a more flexible incentive structure to accommodate the growth in demand. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices