Why Model-Based Oil Forecasts Keep Missing the Mark – ENB Weekly Recap

In this episode of the Energy Newsbeat Daily Standup - Weekly Recap, Stuart Turley and Michael Tanner break down why model-based oil forecasts consistently miss the mark, highlighting Irina Slav’s takedown of flawed IEA predictions. They dive into Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and its implications for oil and gas capital markets, LNG export-driven shale growth, the myth of peak Permian, and ERCOT’s $14B clean energy project cancellations. From misguided net-zero assumptions to underreported system costs in renewables, this episode covers the real data behind energy trends and what investors should really be watching.

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

00:14 - What Does Powell’s Comments in Jackson Hole Mean to the Oil and Gas Markets and Investors?

03:40 - Surging US LNG Exports Fuel Growth in US Shale

08:13 - ERCOT Project Cancellations Reached a Record in Q2 2025, and What is Next?

10:43 - The True Cost of Renewable Energy and the Impact on Consumers’ Electrical Bills

13:33 - Why Model-Based Oil Forecasts Keep Missing the Mark

18:13 - Outro

Links to articles discussed:

What Does Powell’s Comments in Jackson Hole Mean to the Oil and Gas Markets and Investors?

Surging US LNG Exports Fuel Growth in US Shale

ERCOT Project Cancellations Reached a Record in Q2 2025, and What is Next?

The True Cost of Renewable Energy and the Impact on Consumers’ Electrical Bills

Why Model-Based Oil Forecasts Keep Missing the Mark