Why separatists still think they can win Alberta's referendum

0:00Hi, this is Dave Roberts. Heading into summer without a medical emergency kit, that's a risk. Summer colds can linger and getting sick on vacation can derail everything. That's why everyone needs a medical emergency kit. It includes doctor prescribed medications to treat common and serious illnesses. So if you wake up sick, at home or on the road, you already have what you need. It's like having an urgent care and pharmacy at home. Say $45 with code blue at urgentcarekit.com slash blue urgent care kit.com slash blue. This is a CBC podcast. Can I get you a brochure, buttons, dog treats. A button would be fun. Choose the one that speaks to you. My personal favorite is the referendum. Some people think Alberta's referendum is kind of stupid. Others see it as essential. What I really wish to is that all Alberta would understand how desperately we need to go forward as an independent nation.

1:03Because in saving Alberta, I truly think we'll save Canada. I'm Katherine Cullen and this week on the House, strong opinions on both sides of the debate. With just over a month to go before people in Alberta vote on their future in Canada, we went to meet up with both camps to see how the vote is shaping up. And why referendum date itself could be so critical. But first, don't think we've forgotten about that other fight. The trade war escalated yet again this week. The Prime Minister Mark Carney and his cabinet met in BAMF. We were there too to get the finance ministers take on what Canada should do next. And cabinet had a pretty remarkable visitor, Ukrainian President Volodomir Zelensky. That is where we're kicking things off. The House from Alberta is now in session. The next question, Katherine Cullen, CBC. President Prime Minister, thank you very much. In an industrial area in Calgary, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ukrainian President Volodomir Zelensky shook hands, announced new agreements on drone technology and a 100-year partnership declaration.

2:07Then, there's a few questions from reporters. While Zelensky continues to fight an unrelenting war, waged by Russia, Carney is wrestling with a different fight. Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump slapped new tariffs and import bans on some Canadian products. I wanted to know what the Prime Minister plans to do next. Donald Trump is clearly angry at Canada since these negotiations failed. I wonder why you think he is so angry at Canada at this moment. And what your thoughts are about future retaliatory measures and light of the most recent measures. Look, I can't look deeply into the souls of other people and see their emotions. This isn't a question of emotion. It's a question of sovereignty for Canada or rights to not just protect, but to promote our official languages, our culture. There are fundamental issues. There were issues in terms of where the negotiations got to on the commercial side.

3:07We've been very clear about what those are. And Canada is always ready to strike a fair deal. We believe there's a mutually beneficial deal for Canada and the United States. And our team, myself, are ready. He added that he speaks regularly to Trump, including in recent days, though on other issues, including Iran. Carney didn't answer my question about retaliation. Zelensky also has a lot at stake in his relationship with the US. Not only does he need their continued support to supply his military, but US officials just met with both Russia's Vladimir Putin and Zelensky himself in an effort towards peace negotiations. President Zelensky, I wonder whether you think you can trust your dealings with the Americans right now. We count on air defense from America, and the Patriot systems and the Patriot missiles. We trust them. When Russia attacks us each day and night, we get the intelligence.

4:10We get intelligence from Europeans and Americans. And we give a signal to our people, go to the shelters. Of course, we trust Americans. But negotiations, it's a difficult challenge and difficult question, a lot of interest. And that's why we trust and check. Trust and verify. The two leaders then headed to Banff for the Liberal Cabinet retreat. Where Zelensky spoke behind closed doors to ministers. The Liberal Cabinet has a lot to sort out, including that question of retaliation, though heading in, ministers were pretty tight left. Minister McKinnon, can you further retaliate against the US? We're going to have some great meetings. What's your goal at this Cabinet planning forum? So after Cabinet wrapped, I pulled Finance Minister Francois Philippe Champagne aside to talk about next steps. Minister Champagne, thank you for making time. It's a real pleasure. We are speaking on Friday, this Cabinet retreat has just wrapped.

5:13Is there a decision on whether or not to retaliate against the latest US trade actions? Well, we have already presented a set of measures. You will recall. And our principle was to be proportionate, to be targeted and to be strategic. That's what Kinnin expects from us. To be serious, to be firm, but also to be proactive. That was also the message I conveyed to my counterpart. You saw last week at the G20 in Asheville in North Carolina. At the same time we did that, we presented a package of measures to support our small and medium-sized businesses. Because we know that these new unjustified tariffs will hit more small and medium-sized businesses, particularly in Quebec and Ontario and BC. So we wanted to make sure we could provide immediately quiddity. That was the first bit of four billion. The other one was to support for workers. 3.5 billion to make sure that they can remain in employment.

6:15If you want to simplify it, my message to Canadians was, we're going to be there for you. With whatever it takes for as long as it takes. And I want Canadians to understand that we're entering this period in a position of strength. We have the wherewithal to face the situation for as long as it takes. A lot of what you described as measures you have announced, how you reacted. Obviously, things have entered a new moment this week. So I just want to go back to that question. Did you make a decision about whether further retaliation is warranted? We're looking at the measures that have been, we're still analyzing the impact. Because you have to look at the measures as you know, some products were added to the list. Some products were removed from the list. So, I would say in the Terra 4, it's very volatile and somewhat complex. It changed. And so you need to make sure you do the proper analysis. At the same time that you do that, we did not wake up in Monday morning and ask ourselves, what are we going to do?

7:16We already map out different scenarios to make sure we can support people. But first and foremost, you mentioned the planning session we had. For me, if there was one word, it's relentless focus. Making sure that we build the country, you know, we move into a provincial trade barrier by Canadian policy projects of national interest. We let focus on diversifying with partners around the world. And at the same time, we let focus on delivering for Canadians. Because let me just say that I'm very conscious when I go across the nation that affordability is top of mind. So the price of gas, price of food, price of rent, that is top of mind for Canadians. That's why we've been acting on three fronts. Well, and you have the Canada Investment Summit coming up in the next few days in Toronto, hundreds of investors that you're trying to convince to invest in Canada. But part of what they will be interested in is the market next to us, the United States, which has 10 times the population.

8:18What will you tell investors about whether they can expect reliable access to the US if they're in Canada? Well, what they're looking is for trust. Today, that's the most sought after commodity trust. Like I said, it just came from the G20 stability, predictability, and the trust element. And I'll take the words of Fati Barat, which is the executive director of the International Energy Agency. He said the world energy architecture is being redesigned, and Canada will be at the center of it. So if you look at the world today, and the conflict in the Middle East, the war in Europe, and trade tension, this has created a situation where people now see the nexus between energy security, economic security and national security. Now, if you want to ensure the growth in your own domestic market, critical minerals and energy will be essential. And therefore, Canada becomes that partner of choice. You know, it's not because I'm the Minister of Finance of Canada. Not even just because I'm Canadian, but when you look at the map today, you sit down with investors and what do they need?

9:21You need critical minerals to power the digital economy. You certainly need energy to attract industrial and rebuild the industrial base and to grow. Oftentimes, we say demography is destiny. I'd say energy is destiny. So when they're looking at infrastructure, and by the way, Canada, as the largest infrastructure plant of the G7, bigger than the German one, which has been erled as the mother of all infrastructure plant, housing, infrastructure, defense, productivity, and innovation. So it's not surprising that they're looking at Canada like that. I hear that every day. People are looking at Canada because you need to bet enough with an extent 20, 30, 40, 50 years. When you want to look at the future like that, Canada comes to mind. You talk about energy. The question is not just the trade war. The Alberta referendum is part of the picture too. How much does what happens on October 19th, the vote in Alberta? How much buy in you're going to be able to get for investing in Canada? Well, I would say, first of all, I spent a number of days here in Alberta and in Mentor and I wasn't old as well.

10:24Alberta is going to be front and center in the growth of Canada because energy is at the center of that. But it has to remain in Canada. Listen, we're stronger together. I think we need to be relentless, you know, relentless focus is the answer to all that. Because people understand the uncertainty that's happening around the world, the trade tension. Like I said, the geopolitical challenges we're seeing change in technology. And Canadians sometimes are at their best when we're faced with challenge. You know, we support each other, we help each other, we roll up our sleeves. And I think that's one of those moments where when you talk to people in the street, they see enough uncertainty. And I would say, you know, what's happening also is the translation of these global conflicts into the almost and affordability issue for a lot of people. That transmission is so quick. People are say, let's build, let's diversify and partner and let's deliver for people. And I think that message is true in Alberta, is true in British Columbia, is true across the nation.

11:28The Prime Minister is also heading to Europe next week, the European Parliament. I believe you're part of that trip. Yes, we're going to be going to Europe. There is reporting that the Europeans are interested in further strengthening trade ties with Canada. Bloomberg has a piece that asks, is Canada becoming the European Union's 28th state rather than America's 51st? Are we? I would say diversification, one thing we have understood that is in Canada's best interest to diversify. You know, historically, we've been only looking south. I think it's about time we look east and west. And that's what we've done. It's not a yes or a no though, Minister. No, but I would say it's a good thing that we do more. We share the same values. We have a common vision. There are so much we can do together. And by the way, Canada is very complimentary because our colleagues in Europe will need the critical minerals. We'll need the energy to support the growth in their economy. And that's why I say Canada is a partner of choice because the world architecture is being redesigned now. The world is changing. We see it first and foremost.

12:29We're next to a superpower that is decided to change its trading relationship, its approach to global trade. But it's also an opportunity for Canada to say, okay, we have a lot. We have what the world wants and it's going to need in the 21st century. And I would say instinctively for the vast majority of Canadians looking at Europe is a strategic positioning. To say, why don't we do more together? You know, we've done that in terms of supply with Germany with respect to the submarine. We're going to look at what we can do more in our artificial intelligence. We're looking at industrial base. How can we share that? We face some of the same challenges. And I think Canadians should be reassured by the fact that we are looking at partnership in a market which is basically bigger than the US consumer market. And so there is a lot of opportunities. Now, the shift takes time. But I think the Prime Minister, as certainly the tone of the Prime Minister, is sending a very powerful signal.

13:33And I will tell you, the world is rediscovering Canada. I keep saying, when you go to these international summit, Canada is the voice that people want to hear. And also because they see us as the transatlantic partner of choice. They want a transatlantic voice in Europe. And they see Canada with our natural resources, with our values, with the leadership that we have been showing. By the way, I'm going to be also at the Minister of Finance Meeting of Europe. Imagine a Canadian Finance Minister is now invited to the Finance Minister's meeting in Europe. 28th State, after all. Well, I would say it's the kind of partnership they want a voice of Canada and we're bringing this transatlantic partnership. Thank you so much for your time, Minister. That was my conversation at the Cabinet Retreat in Banff, with Finance Minister François Filippe Champagne. Lots more coming up on this special edition of the House Podcast coming to you from Alberta. Next up, we were meeting with folks trying to keep Alberta in Canada when a woman rolled up and told them off.

14:36We'll tell you why there's plenty of tension over next month's referendum vote. Earn your Farm Dean as little as 33 months with West Coast University's hybrid program, no bachelor's degree required. Eligible transfer credits may be accepted. West Coast University, as real as it gets. Visit westcoastuniversity.edu. WCU cannot guarantee employment. Hi, this is Dave Roberts. Heading into summer without a medical emergency kit, that's a risk. Summer colds can linger and getting sick on vacation can derail everything. That's why everyone needs a medical emergency kit. It includes doctor prescribed medications to treat common and serious illnesses. So if you wake up sick, at home or on the road, you already have what you need. It's like having an urgent care and pharmacy at home. Say $45 with code blue at urgentcarekit.com slash blue. Urgentcarekit.com slash blue. I'm Catherine Cullen, you're listening to the House. Making politics makes sense. Make sure you give us a follow so you never miss an episode and tell us what you think of the show.

15:37You can email us at thehouseatcbc.ca. It's a volunteer from the Forever Canadian campaign, breaking into song, as they meet with Prime Minister Mark Carney at the cabinet retreat in BANF. They're one of the groups active around the Alberta referendum. Albertans have a little stack of decisions to make next month. But it's the last question on Premier Danielle Smith's referendum that has overshadowed all the others. Number 10, whether Alberta should stay in Canada or whether the province should hold a binding referendum to separate from the country. I went to meet with both camps starting with those that want to stay in Canada. Would you like a sign or two? On signs? Yeah, how many would you like? Just got the one line, but... Do you have friends? Family? Would you like to give one to some of them? Sure, I'll take two. I'll take two and start a conversation.

16:37Thank you so much. This is one of the top salespeople for keeping Alberta in Canada. This evening, Steven Carter has set up shop in Calgary's Confederation Park. He's handing out lawn signs that say stay in Canada, rather than the alternative, triggering a formal referendum on Alberta separation. And Carter makes sure everyone he talks to gets a little bit more than they came for. So you'll note that we're not just giving anybody just one sign, right? No one's allowed to leave with just one. They have to take two signs and they have to take some brochures and they have to take some buttons. Because each of those things is a conversation starter. If I have to give away another sign to someone else, then I have to talk to other people about the referendum. Trying to get people to spread the word is a classic political tactic. And Carter is an outspoken veteran strategist. He's worked on a wide, maybe even wild range of Alberta political campaigns. From the NDP's Nahaed Nenshi when he was mayor of Calgary to Danielle Smith, when she won the leadership of the Wild Rose Party,

17:40to current liberal MP, Corey Hogan. But this is a campaign unlike any other. And that has Carter worried. Reasonably worried. The less engaged are, you know, they're like, why is this happening? And they don't necessarily know the importance of it. They think we're going to win in a staggering fashion. And so why would they take time out of their day, especially when that time is going to be including answering nine questions that they don't have the foggiest clue about? But, and especially when they're being told right now, to expect lineups of three hours. Right? Like, why would I give up three hours of my day to go and do this election? Well, that's really bad messaging. Carter is a bit confounded by this campaign. Some Albertans are confused. Say no to the nine, stay in Canada. Yes. All at the website, which are also on the website. So is this different than Thomas's website?

18:40What is the other's voice? The state of Canada, he's this guy. It's different. I don't know. Similar message. We have a slightly different message. We're talking about the forever Canadian. I guess. Oh, I see. This is stay no to the nine forever Canadian. That's something different. Why is it confusing? Well, there are ten questions on the ballot. the other nine deal with the Canadian Constitution and immigration. Also, there are more than two dozen groups campaigning in this referendum. People here keep mixing up Carter's campaign with another entity, forever Canadian. There's been some confusion in recent days over advanced voting too. Louise Paget has come for a sign, but she's angry there even IS a referendum. People are really upset. People are really pissed off. I don't know anybody who's a separatist. I don't know anybody who's interested in that. Everybody's really upset, but there is a lot of confusion about forever Canada and say no to the nine. It's confusing. The questions are just so ridiculous and

19:47complicated, right? Try to explain this to my 93 year old mom. She's, she's going, what? Who would even not, you know what I mean? It's just like, it's bad news. Do you think that it's possible that this vote will succeed? Though, do you think that there could be another referendum? So this is a non-binding referendum. It is meaningless in so many ways, right? Because no matter what we say, and these are not referendum questions, these are all of Daniel Smith's pet questions. Maybe no one has a better sense of what is important to Albertans than Janet Brown, founder of Janet Brown opinion research, and she has never seen anything quite like this either. This situation is unprecedented and it's and it's polling. We're always looking at precedence. We're always looking at what happened before and trying to figure out how things are changing. As a pollster, I'm really nervous because I don't have a precedent to measure this against. Let's talk about support and what the numbers are showing you at this moment. What does support look like in this conversation about remaining in Canada or prompting another referendum?

20:50The really funny thing is, as no matter how I've asked the question, I always get basically the same response within the margin of error survey after survey. I usually get something like 26, 27% of Albertans saying they would vote for option two, vote to separate. About 67%, say they'd vote to stay, and six or seven percent of people are undecided. Literally, I've been getting the same number over and over again. These separation numbers are just rock solid. You are measuring opinion. Obviously, voter turnout is going to matter. It's one thing to hold an opinion. It's another to actually cast your ballot to what extent do you think the folks who want to trigger a formal referendum have a shot? Well, that's what's keeping me up at night. What's going to make my polls wrong at the end of the day potentially is voter turnout? We think we're doing representative samples of Albertans, but if one group is more motivated than the other, it could be quite different. Now, 60% voter turnout in today's DNA just considered really, really high.

21:54And if we have a scenario where 100% of separatists get out to vote and 50% of federalists get out to vote, then suddenly all this polling we're doing is going to be caught into question. That risk haunts federalist campaigners like Stephen Carter. We get out the vote strategy as a nightmare. So traditionally, what has happened is we build capacity in our political system year over year election over an election. We have no voters list. We have no historical process. We have no data that is developed over time. We have no capacity to reach out to people. We don't have an email list. We don't have a telephone list. I'm talking to vendor about doing a telephone town hall for 50,000 people. And my first question to him is, do you have any telephone numbers? I don't have any telephone numbers. How am I supposed to reach anybody? Carter has a goal in mind. He'd like the federalist side to win with about three quarters of the vote or better. He argues that kind of result would finish the separatist movement.

22:57Well, I think that the worst case scenario would be 75, 25. And the best case scenario would be 80, 20. But either one of those scenarios, I think puts this in the ground dead. The last thing we wanted to do is take this and turn it into a perpetual question. So help me understand this. You're saying if you convincingly win this vote, you can just kill the separatist sentiment as a political conversation. Since the days of law, we've had 20% of the Alberta population that is vaguely separatist. 20, 25% of the population has always expressed separatist bent, which is fine. 20% of the population thinks that Elvis is still alive. Well, I'm fine with that. Think whatever you need. It was a flat earth society for crying out loud. People can believe what they want to believe. I just choose to believe that we're better off in Canada and the 80% of Albertans that feel that way are the dominant force and we shouldn't be subjected to the whims of a strident minority.

23:57Over the course of a couple of hours, lots of people stop to grab a sign or two. And one man is confused by which federalist group is which. Also by Stephen Carter's other slogan, note of the nine. You don't even need that. I just give you stuff. I thought I had to have this male to get my sign. That's forever Canadian. They've got rules. I've got signs. I think this is terrible messaging. I'm going to tell you why. You're going to tell me why? Well, because it's question nine, the one that we have to worry about. I mean, it's just, I understand what you're saying because my buddy said, are they saying no to other nine provinces? Yeah. And I wanted to kill him because I've already had my signs printed. After the confusion is sorted out, I start chatting with John Ellerd. He's a social psychologist who's been campaigning to stay in Canada with his church. I'm very concerned. We're going to have a rerun of Brexit where a lot of people are going to say, well, the polls are telling us that we're going to be staying in Canada. I don't know. There

25:01are enough people in the UK thought, we're not going anywhere and look what happened. Tells me his grandfather fought at Vimy Ridge. And he spent the summer driving trucks across Canada with the RCMP musical ride. I've been all over this country. It's just, it's a wonderful country and Alberta's a wonderful part of it. And we're going to all be a whole hell of a lot better together than, yeah. I mean, look at how most of us live in this province. We're just blessed, left right and center, right? Not everyone sees it like John. A woman in a yellow shirt pulls up on her bicycle. She doesn't want to sign. She's come to give this campaign her opinion, namely that they're not being very smart. To be honest, I think that you guys have to be very smart. Why is that? Why is that? Because obviously, separation is not going to win. It's about creating

26:01votes so that we actually have some clout with Ottawa. We're not winning separation. We're doing the same thing co-backed. We have examples of those inclinating history. Okay, let me rebut a couple things for you because number one, Quebec hasn't won. Up until 1976, Montreal was the most populous city in Canada. We're in Alberta. Come on. We're the richest province in Canada. We're in that be great if we actually got to hold on to some of our wealth. We pay the exact same taxes as everybody else in Canada. We pay no more. If we also had money coming back into Alberta, but we, you know what we do? Every taxation policy that we have is equalization. You pay more money because you make more money. I pay less money because I make less money. It's like taxes, but I've got nine years per secondary. What I find insulting is that you guys can't think beyond, you can't think beyond this. It's insulting. It's like, you know what? It's like, honestly,

27:02look at this. We're clearly not going to win this. There's a reason why the Bank of Montreal has had courted in Toronto. They tried to send a message. They lost all their corporate headquarters. We don't want to do the same. And if you think we get richer by being separate, you're wrong. No, we're not separating. That's the point. It's about creating. It's creating bargaining power. Have you not traveled anywhere in the world? I travel everywhere. Come on, then you have some idea of what I'm talking about. It's called bargaining power. I think this woman didn't want to give us her name. And she told us she didn't want to be on CBC. But she still continued to talk into our microphone for several minutes. So we're including her point of view. It illustrates what Stephen Carter calls the send a message voter in this campaign. Those who want to use the referendum as leverage with Ottawa. So there's no point in trying to change someone's mind. She's not going to change mine. I'm not going to change hers. So we see passion that is kind of unparalleled. Because the group of 20% feels so, like they are such a minority,

28:04and they feel so attacked, like they keep saying, why do you think we're so stupid? Why do you think we're so? I don't think you're stupid. I think you're wrong. And that's a different different type of outcome. Do you see any merit to the argument that this could be essentially a bargaining chip to get more out of Confederation? What more do we need? We are the richest people in this country. We have the largest median income, the largest average income, our 1% is very, very high. The people who are the angriest are the in Alberta. The people who was household incomes went from 425 to 310. Those people are furious. Furious, I tell you. But they're still making $310,000 a year. They're doing great by any metric. And the fact that we are standing here in complaining, we are the privilege, we are the few, we are so lucky, and we resent Quebec because they don't have more. We resent Manitoba because they require sustaining grants in order to have the same service level that we do. This is the rich resenting the poor and it's ridiculous.

29:09As the evening goes on, another woman comes up to get a lawn sign. She tells me that the tension over this vote, whatever the outcome is having a real impact on people in Alberta. For me, being an Indigenous person, it's just what's happening is just outrageous, right? No respect for our treaty rights, more racism towards Indigenous people. Also, like online, you're seeing more incidents, right? And for you, it's clear that that is tied to what's happening right now. Yes, yes, I believe so. Carrie Manitopias lives in Calgary and she's from the Muscaugin First Nation in Saskatchewan. I have a couple of friends who are very pro-separatives, right? And we did get into some strong opposing views. And like it affects your daily life and your relationships, right? She being a friend is painting Indigenous people as in a very negative way, right? And that we depend on the government, we get

30:16handouts and just a lot of negative information, right? And so, yeah, to me, it's personal. That must have hurt that relationship, I'm sure. It did, yeah. There is no longer a relationship, right? Yeah. Another relationship being tested at this moment is the one between Canada and the US. And that backdrop, the trade war with the Americans, Federalist campaigner Stephen Carter says that is actually helpful. Donald Trump is our greatest ally in the staying Canada movement. The number one message that we can use, if we'd said staying Canada, not in the US, we'd be, there would be huge. I don't think any of the separatists really want to be the 51st state. I know that most of them have, you know, no 51s on their back bumpers. People do not want to be part of the United States. But the problem is we're not going to be the 51st state. The problem would be, if we were an independent country, we'd be a vassal state. We'd be controlled by the United

31:18States economy in a way that we wouldn't be and we aren't as part of the Canadian experience. We have a full Canadian infrastructure. I talked to one separatist who said, well, we have all our international agreements. I said, what international agreements do we have? We don't have a single international agreement. We wouldn't even have an agreement with the rest of Canada. So we should have no expectations of pipelines going through British Columbia, the Northwest Territories, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. There is no expectation that we'll be able to get our crude products out of Alberta. We've heard a few people say they're not happy with Daniel Smith and all this. Let me sort of flip the question around. She's putting the question to the people that this could solve this once and for all, which is what you said you wanted. What is so bad about having this vote and letting people have their say? I think there'd be nothing bad with this if we were running in a general election. If a party, the United Conservative Party decided that they were going to take these nine questions and make them a central part of their election platform, I would be

32:23all over it. Let's go. Your political parties would be able to take positions. But by choosing to do this as a referendum, we've only had nine referendum questions in Alberta's history. We've now done 10 in this one particular election. Why? This is a cop out. This is the UCP saying, we don't want to deal with this. So we're going to put it into a referendum and we're going to confuse the referendum so much by adding these additional nine questions that nobody asked for. There was no petitions. There was no one asking for these referendum questions on immigration or our constitution. And as a result, we've got confusion. We've got anger. We've got a less clear process that an election would bring. So let's do it in the election. It costs less money, too. You're angry. A little bit pissed. But not as much as I could be. You should see me when I'm really angry. So that's a Federalist perspective. The next day, we talk to the other side.

33:23I've always liked to think, well, let's let's dream a little bit. Let's look at what we can do because it's going to be a massive success for everybody in the province and it's going to have a ripple effect throughout the Hall of Canada, I think. This time we're in a park in the city of Red Deer, north of Calgary. But a dozen supporters are waiting for the leader of the Let Alberta Decide campaign. And while they wait, I like over to see the man handing out lawn signs. Jerry Bennett is wearing an Alberta ball cap, sitting at a table with a blue Alberta flag on one side, and a red and white Canadian flag on the other. I ask him what kinds of conversations he's been having. Probably the most meaningful ones I've had are the actual people that are supporting forever Canada. And what really struck me as one individual was basically parroting everything that we are promoting as far as the divisiveness in our province. But still, it was very patriotic and wanting

34:26to stay in Canada. And I don't know if there's anybody that doesn't want to stay in Canada, but we're on a path that is just not going in the right direction. I am really struck by hearing you say, I don't think there's anybody who doesn't want to stay in Canada. As somebody coming from elsewhere in the country, I don't know that I understood that that was part of the conversation. So help me understand that you would like to stay in Canada, but what? I don't see Alberta having a future in Canada. This point in my life, I don't think there's anything that Mark Carney and the federal government could do that would change my mind now knowing what we can do as an independent Alberta. The prosperity, the freedom we are going to have, the services we could provide, and the local government, people that we would elect and be accountable, totally accountable to us. You're going this extra step. You're sitting in that chair. You're out here talking to people. You're having sometimes tense conversations. What makes this so personal for you? Why are you driven

35:26to do this? There's no future for my children or my grandchildren. Excuse me. Makes me choke up. But how many understand no future? Because I mean it's beautiful province. Where Canada is a trillion dollars in debt and forecast it to be three trillion in debt in the next 30 or so years. What's that going to do to your kids and your grandkids? What's the situation? Right now they can't afford to buy a house. Taxes are so high. Groceries are so high. It's just a survive. It's a struggle day to day. This is a tough one. I mean you've been Canadian your whole life. Do you have not been Canadian anymore? Or also make you emotional? Definitely yes. Yeah. Well I think it's pretty much we won't lose our Canadian citizenship. I don't think there's a path to do that. For folks in the rest of the country I can hear some people's hackles getting up saying well you

36:27want to both ways. You want to be an independent country but you want to be a Canadian citizen. You want to be part of the pension plan. What do you say to them? How many passports is Mark Karnigot? That's what I say. A few feet away. There's another let Alberta decide supporter who also gets emotional talking about this fight. I was born in Ontario so I'm I'm a transplant year. I came for a little bundle with big brown eyes 25 years ago and I've never looked back. What I really wish to is that all Albertans would understand how desperately we need to go forward as an independent nation because in saving Alberta I truly think we'll save Canada. Gail Parks has bright purple streaks in her white hair and a glittering jean jacket covered with rhinestones. I'm going to be a little bit in polite and I'm not telling you. Can I tell you the real truth? I'll give you my age

37:28but I'm going to tell you in advance I'm lying. But her tone is much more serious when I ask her why she's advocating for what she sees as freedom for both Alberta and Canada. You can't possibly believe that we're a free country right now. If we have a prime minister that's standing, talking about China as his partner and the the new world order you don't think Canada's at risk. Do is there anything that you would miss about being Canadian? Oh I love our flag. I'm jeez. Oh my goodness. I miss everything that was real about growing up in this country. Oh my god. Look at my face. I knew the best of the world that this cold Canada that we don't have it. But like what? What is it that you feel is missing? Oh my good. I'm not allowed to talk about Christianity on the street because I could go to jail. I mean well I don't know what's what's

38:33the law that they the the new federal law. I don't. Gail is talking about the Liberals combating hate legislation which became law in June. It doesn't criminalize talking about Christianity in the street as Gail says instead it removes a religious exemption from Canada's hate speech laws. But for Gail there's a bigger concern at play. I want the same kind of freedom for my grandchildren and their children that I had as a as a young person growing up in this country. I don't want to have to tip toe around speech. I hate that our speech has been hijacked that there are words that we can't use anymore because they mean something else to today's generation. Thank you very much for coming out. This is a real boost to see Keith Wilson in the wild. In the wild. The moment these supporters have been waiting for is here. Keith Wilson arrives in his blue dress shirt and blazer. He starts chatting with Jerry about stands like this one for

39:37handing out lawn signs. This one here is 930 to 1230. You're going to have to pay me overtime here if we don't get out of here pretty well. You and I will get the same rate of overtime. Okay. Yeah. I'm good with that. We can we can double it and we'll still pay no taxes. There you go. Wilson is also part of another group that's published a 214 page transition plan for how they envision Alberta leaving Canada. I sat down with him to ask why he's pitching this. Stale burdens. Right now we're permission seekers and we're rent payers. We're treated as a colony and we send a tremendous amount of wealth and money taxpayer dollars to Ottawa each year. You know 20 to 30 billion more than we get back in program services and grants. There once was a time where Alberta could not go alone. It just couldn't survive without the support of the federal government and that was from a period of 1905 until the late 1940s and definitely the early 50s.

40:39And with the evolution of our economy we've all grown the relationship with Ottawa in my view and it's not a question of being angry or having animosity. It's it's just I believe we've all grown that. A couple of the folks that we talked to were moved to tears talking about Canada and I think in the rest of the country it's maybe a bit hard to understand this push pull of like we love it but we have to leave. There's nothing that can be done today. I feel leaving is a dramatic overstatement respectfully. It's about resetting the constitutional arrangement and I realize when you get into politics and you're dealing with large numbers of people that things get kind of black and white and labeled that way. But an independent country is leaving is it not? Well we'll just have a new relationship. European countries see themselves as countries but they also see themselves as Europe. Right? So that's what I'm more in vision is Alberta will still be part of the geography of Canada. We'll just be able to have fairness, democratic accountability. We'll have

41:41the opportunity to elect and hold accountable our politicians and something we can't do now. The question of how much of the separation movement is actually about separating from Canada and how much is about using the threat to get leverage against Ottawa is a tricky one. For example, Jerry Bennett has this plea. When it comes to the referendum vote option two because basically that isn't a separation vote that is just a message to send to Karni that we need some change and if we do win that and it gives Alberta the marching orders to get the second referendum, you can vote no at the second referendum. So why not vote option two, send a message to Ottawa, see where it goes from there. Those people that Jerry is trying to appeal to, bolster Janet Brown calls them soft separatists. They are people who have grievances against Ottawa but they're not absolutely sure that separations the way to go. Well, they represent about 11%

42:43of the population. This is the group that's going to be critical in this upcoming referendum, but they're still just a real slim sliver of voters. So those soft separatists, the separatist camp is saying to them, vote for option two. Let's let Alberta decide. Let's get this to a full binding referendum. The Federalists are saying to those very same people, this is too risky. You may have your grievances, but this separate Alberta could be something that you don't like. I would say that this narrow group of soft separatists, Danielle Smith scores the best with that group. It's not that they dislike Karni, but that group is not as enamored with Karni as the staunch Federalists are. So Danielle Smith, she's walking this very fine line, she always walks a fine line, but she's walking this very fine line where she's trying to say to this group of soft separatists, I know you're frustrated. I'm working really hard to get a better deal with Ottawa,

43:45a deal that's so good that it will be worth staying. And I think that's what they need to hear right now. Supporters of staying in Canada often argue that flirting with separatism is playing with fire, that as a landlocked resource exporting province being caught between Canada and the US could mean serious economic hardship. But when I ask him about this, Wilson tells me he believes Alberta would have big leverage. The importance of the Alberta economy to businesses in Ontario and Quebec is massive, is absolutely massive. We want to keep supporting businesses in Quebec. There's a lot of equipment that we use in our oil sands mines that is manufactured in Quebec. We want those workers to keep their jobs. So if Canada is going to be hostile in the negotiation as to resetting the relationship, we have tremendous leverage because we will have choices as to where we can buy

44:47those goods and services. And it's not just the eastern provinces either. Wilson says Alberta has leverage to the west as well. A tremendous amount of British Columbia's economy has to move east to eastern markets. And it moves by rail and by highways that go through Alberta. That gives us tremendous leverage. We want to support their economy, we want British Columbia to prosper. If British Columbia is going to be hostile to Alberta, our ability to create a consequence for that immediately is traumatic and something I would never want to see happen. In this political moment that we're living through right now, the tensions with the United States has been a swell of patriotism. A lot of people listening would say they feel that they love Canada more acutely at this moment. You know, then they have thought about at other moments in their lives. How do you explain to them why you don't love Canada? I do love Canada. I just don't love how Canada treats Alberta. I don't love how Canada

45:53has harmed the opportunities for my children. I don't like how Canada, in particularly Ottawa, spends recklessly. Do you worry about becoming a de facto 51st state? Yes, I do. And the reason I worry is because Albertans in my experience and in my personal view, do not want to replace a master in Ottawa with a master in Washington. But that's why I think a lot of Albertans have had a clear eye. Look at this. And we have inherent strengths. We have a unique advantage in that the products we have that the Americans want, the rest of the world wants. Ontario doesn't have that same position because what you're making is consumer products that are margin sensitive and they have to be shifted short distance to a large market in order to be profitable and with a dollar delta. Whereas we don't have that constraint fundamentally in Alberta. Significant majority of Albertans say that they want to stay. When we were speaking to people

46:55in the Federalist camp yesterday, one thing we heard was a minority of Albertans want this vote. People don't want this. It's a waste of money. This isn't something that a party campaigned on during an election. It's not really a proper democratic exercise. What do you say to fellow Albertans who are mad that this vote is even happening? Well, you either believe in democracy or you don't. An election or referendum is direct democracy. And that's what's happening here. I'm not worried about the polls. The polls might be right. My joke is yeah, there's no chance for us to win. You don't have to vote. Just stay home. You guys got this. Trust the polls. You got this. But so given the polls, what's your best shot at winning? What is it? What does a best case scenario look like for you here? Well, something north of 50%. But I'm wondering if you have the minority in terms of the overall polling support. If you accept the polls, is it about... I don't accept the polls. I mean, they can be predictive.

47:59And but you know, there's a... We saw this with the polling with respect to Donald Trump in his election when the first time. There's a... People aren't prepared to... Are reluctant and fearful or don't want to say what they're really going to do. And within a normal writ period for a normal federal provincial election, the most important is the last 10 days. Right? Elections can be... All the polls can be saying somebody's got it in the bag and then all of a sudden they flip in the last 10 days. So I feel we're building momentum. If you lose this referendum, is this fight over? I don't think it is. Too many people have now given a lot of thought to it. And they can now see the unfairness and the problem with the structure of confederation. And they can see... I do feel sorry for the federal conservative party. You know, Dane Lloyd has been tasked by Pierre Paulier to lead this campaign. And you know, he's like,

49:05we're going to fight for a fair deal for Alberta within Canada. And my short answer is, well, what's he been waiting for? Right? And it's not his fault. It's because they always have to moderate their views and shift their views towards reflecting the views of voters in Ontario and Quebec. It's electoral math. I don't get angry at that in the same reason. I don't get angry at gravity. It's just a it's just a fact of life. What would you say to the rest of Canada who feels a chill here and you? Well, we've been feeling a chill for decades since the equalization programs come into place. Albertans have sent over $300 billion to Ottawa that we haven't gotten back. And at the same time, we're told how we're supposed to live our lives. We're told that we have to accept whatever immigration program the federal government imposes. We have to accept the deficit spending that's causing inflation and affordability. So many Albertans are very frustrated and are not

50:06feeling comfortable giving grace anymore and want to chart our own path and have a fair and respectful relationship with the rest of Canada, but under our terms where there is mutual respect and there is fairness. I was talking to Keith Wilson of the Let Alberta Decide Group. Before that, you heard from Stephen Carter with Alberta's Voice. Okay, that is it for us this week. My thanks to the folks who put the show together this week, Laura Glouacchi, Benjamin Lopez-Steven, Derek Vanderweik, and technical producer, J.S. Villeneuve. Thanks also to Alison Demster and Calgary. Our senior producer is Jennifer Shvalier. I'm Catherine Cullen. Thank you so much for listening.