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Reports suggest the Trump administration is facing a mounting discontent from its allies
in the Persian Gulf.
One official said there's a leave in the region that the US is more focused on defending
Israel and US troops there.
While they, on the other hand, are left to face Iran's drones and missiles alone.
It comes amid renewed Iranian attacks on a US-based Kuwait.
Iran has targeted Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar,
and the UAE in response to US and Israeli strikes.
Iran's state media says drones have targeted American military bases and
Kuwait in large numbers.
And the government is vowing more is yet to come.
We can talk now to Durgro Qafiro.
He's the CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics.
That's a geopolitical risk think tank based in Washington, D.C.
He's also an assistant professor at Georgetown University.
Welcome back to D.W.
Now Iran has been striking US military facilities in the Gulf since the very first day of this war.
How much damage have they been able to do to the American infrastructure in the region?
Yeah, thank you so much.
Really great to be with you.
As of two days ago, the amount of damage done to US military assets in the region
was about $1.9 billion actually.
All right, what does that mean in practical terms though?
What does that mean in terms of striking and capabilities?
And also, of course, in terms of security for the service members working there?
Well, the Iranians are clearly able to
wage attacks on US military installations in the GCC countries and other parts of the Middle East
too that will prove very costly from a financial standpoint.
When we look at the amount of money that Iran has to spend on the drones and the missiles
required for these attacks, then we look at the amount of money that this costs US taxpayers.
It's very favorable to Iran in terms of the ratio.
So, the Iranians are capable of making the Americans bleed if this becomes a prolonged war.
It will be very costly in terms of US treasure.
It can also prove costly from the standpoint of American lives that are lost in this war
that the United States and Israel decided to start late last month.
There, well, we're about one week into this conflict and there has been loss of US life
and the Iranians understand that there is a huge political price that the Trump administration
is going to pay for that.
If this conflict drags on and more and more Americans and Uniform lose their lives,
this will make the war probably increasingly unpopular at home in the United States.
And the Iran understands how these politics play out in America.
And it wasn't very popular to begin with Iran also very soon after this war kicked off,
started striking civilian and energy infrastructure across the Gulf.
What's Tehran's calculus here, you think?
Great question. So, Iran understands that the GCC countries have very little appetite for a war
in the Gulf. The GCC countries did not want the United States and Israel to begin bombing
Iran and they did a lot to try to abert this conflict.
However, the US and Israel waged this war anyway.
And now the GCC states are caught in the mix.
They are suffering as collateral damage.
The Iranians have been targeting these GCC countries, you know, going after not only US
military installations in the Gulf, but also civilian targets.
As you mentioned, hotels, airports, apartment complexes,
also very importantly going after the energy infrastructure inside Saudi Arabia and Qatar,
this is about giving the GCC countries reason to try to persuade the White House
to halt all military operations against Iran as soon as possible.
The Iranians are targeting the foundations of the GCC states' wealth and prosperity.
This action on the part of Iran against countries in the Gulf poses an existential threat
to the economic health of countries such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and so on.
Absolutely, let me jump in there though because there are questions concerning the coordination
between the US and its allies in the Gulf.
The Gulf states say they were not notified before the US and Israel started striking around.
Tell me why would Donald Trump not brief his allies before such a consequential move?
Well, it's a great question.
Again, as I mentioned, the Gulf Arab states were certainly not on board with this.
They understood from the beginning that this conflict would pose an enormous threat to their
national security and their economic interests, and they were really not on the same page with
the White House, and we saw the Omani Foreign Minister coming to Washington really at the last
minute to do everything he could to try to enlarge in the space for diplomacy and to help the
United States and Iran take a diplomatic offer. I think they were certainly caught off guard,
and we saw that in terms of how the Omani Foreign Minister reacted once these
airstrikes on Iran began. I think Trump clearly wanted there to be an element of surprise,
and I have to assume that is one of the main reasons why the Trump administration did not do more
to inform countries in the Gulf of what was in store.
The GCC says that Iran has, in their opinion, now crossed a line by targeting them.
Do you see a scenario in which these countries would get more actively involved in the war?
Well, I certainly think that from the Iranian standpoint, that's a risk, and that's one of the
ways in which Iran's retaliatory attacks might backfire against Tehran. Again, the GCC countries
were not in favor of the U.S. and Israel waging this war. They saw this as completely unnecessary
and dangerous. However, as you did point out by now, Iran has crossed the red lines for these
countries by directly attacking them, especially attacking civilian infrastructure in these countries,
and now they see themselves as needing to take action in order to uphold their national defense,
and we are hearing a lot of talk about some in the GCC probably taking direct military action
against Iran. I think that as this conflict continues, they will feel as if they're under more
pressure to respond in such a manner. All of this is serving to further escalate the conflict
and to bring new layers of complexity to us. It's a highly volatile situation, and I might be asking
the impossible of you right now, but I would like to know if you can, you know, make an educated
guess, how could this war reshape the Gulf? Well, I think that we need to keep in mind that it was
about three years ago when Saudi Arabia and Iran re-normalized diplomatic relations in Beijing
that was through an agreement that the Iraq use and Omani's helped facilitate,
and this marked the beginning of a new period of detent in the relationship between Saudi Arabia and
Iran. I have to assume that at this point, this period of detent is over as a consequence of Iran's
actions toward Saudi Arabia and the other five GCC countries. I'm not necessarily sure that this
is going to result in Saudi Arabia or other GCC members fully severing diplomatic relations with
Iran, although that's possible. But again, the period of detent is over and the Gulf Arab states
are going to perceive an increasingly heightened threat from Iran. At the same time, this past week
of chaos in the Gulf has demonstrated that the United States, which is a security guarantor for
all six GCC states, has again failed to keep the Gulf Arab monarchy secure and protected from
regional threats. So I think to get to your question, I really think we're going to enter a new
period of heightened distrust between the GCC states in Iran and a period in which GCC members
increasingly militarize. They are going to try to become more autonomous from the United States
and to try to become more self-sufficient when it comes to protecting their own national security.
Now, the extent to which they will succeed in doing so time will tell, but the countries of the
Gulf are going to have to revisit basic concepts of security because the Gulf depends on an image
of peace and stability. This is how these countries attract tourists and how they attract
investment from abroad. With the Gulf on fire this past week, that image has been completely
destroyed. All the C-makers in the GCC are going to have to find a way to move forward so that
their countries can again restore stability and security that's needed for their economies to
prosper in the future. As Georgia Caffeero founder of Gulf State Analytics, thank you so
much for your insights. It's always great to have you on the show. And a quick summary now,
the latest developments in the war. Israel's military says it has started a new wave of strikes
on Iran targeting regime infrastructure in both Tehran and Isfahan. Iran's president,
Mazud Pzezhkin says several countries have begun mediation efforts to end the escalating conflict
with the U.S. and Israel, although we offered no further details. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald
Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social that there will be no deal with Iran.
Instead, he called for, quote, unconditional surrender. He said the U.S. and its allies would
afterwards work to rebuild Iran.
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