Why the Gulf states are not in lock step with the US on Iran strikes

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Reports suggest the Trump administration is facing a mounting discontent from its allies

in the Persian Gulf.

One official said there's a leave in the region that the US is more focused on defending

Israel and US troops there.

While they, on the other hand, are left to face Iran's drones and missiles alone.

It comes amid renewed Iranian attacks on a US-based Kuwait.

Iran has targeted Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar,

and the UAE in response to US and Israeli strikes.

Iran's state media says drones have targeted American military bases and

Kuwait in large numbers.

And the government is vowing more is yet to come.

We can talk now to Durgro Qafiro.

He's the CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics.

That's a geopolitical risk think tank based in Washington, D.C.

He's also an assistant professor at Georgetown University.

Welcome back to D.W.

Now Iran has been striking US military facilities in the Gulf since the very first day of this war.

How much damage have they been able to do to the American infrastructure in the region?

Yeah, thank you so much.

Really great to be with you.

As of two days ago, the amount of damage done to US military assets in the region

was about $1.9 billion actually.

All right, what does that mean in practical terms though?

What does that mean in terms of striking and capabilities?

And also, of course, in terms of security for the service members working there?

Well, the Iranians are clearly able to

wage attacks on US military installations in the GCC countries and other parts of the Middle East

too that will prove very costly from a financial standpoint.

When we look at the amount of money that Iran has to spend on the drones and the missiles

required for these attacks, then we look at the amount of money that this costs US taxpayers.

It's very favorable to Iran in terms of the ratio.

So, the Iranians are capable of making the Americans bleed if this becomes a prolonged war.

It will be very costly in terms of US treasure.

It can also prove costly from the standpoint of American lives that are lost in this war

that the United States and Israel decided to start late last month.

There, well, we're about one week into this conflict and there has been loss of US life

and the Iranians understand that there is a huge political price that the Trump administration

is going to pay for that.

If this conflict drags on and more and more Americans and Uniform lose their lives,

this will make the war probably increasingly unpopular at home in the United States.

And the Iran understands how these politics play out in America.

And it wasn't very popular to begin with Iran also very soon after this war kicked off,

started striking civilian and energy infrastructure across the Gulf.

What's Tehran's calculus here, you think?

Great question. So, Iran understands that the GCC countries have very little appetite for a war

in the Gulf. The GCC countries did not want the United States and Israel to begin bombing

Iran and they did a lot to try to abert this conflict.

However, the US and Israel waged this war anyway.

And now the GCC states are caught in the mix.

They are suffering as collateral damage.

The Iranians have been targeting these GCC countries, you know, going after not only US

military installations in the Gulf, but also civilian targets.

As you mentioned, hotels, airports, apartment complexes,

also very importantly going after the energy infrastructure inside Saudi Arabia and Qatar,

this is about giving the GCC countries reason to try to persuade the White House

to halt all military operations against Iran as soon as possible.

The Iranians are targeting the foundations of the GCC states' wealth and prosperity.

This action on the part of Iran against countries in the Gulf poses an existential threat

to the economic health of countries such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and so on.

Absolutely, let me jump in there though because there are questions concerning the coordination

between the US and its allies in the Gulf.

The Gulf states say they were not notified before the US and Israel started striking around.

Tell me why would Donald Trump not brief his allies before such a consequential move?

Well, it's a great question.

Again, as I mentioned, the Gulf Arab states were certainly not on board with this.

They understood from the beginning that this conflict would pose an enormous threat to their

national security and their economic interests, and they were really not on the same page with

the White House, and we saw the Omani Foreign Minister coming to Washington really at the last

minute to do everything he could to try to enlarge in the space for diplomacy and to help the

United States and Iran take a diplomatic offer. I think they were certainly caught off guard,

and we saw that in terms of how the Omani Foreign Minister reacted once these

airstrikes on Iran began. I think Trump clearly wanted there to be an element of surprise,

and I have to assume that is one of the main reasons why the Trump administration did not do more

to inform countries in the Gulf of what was in store.

The GCC says that Iran has, in their opinion, now crossed a line by targeting them.

Do you see a scenario in which these countries would get more actively involved in the war?

Well, I certainly think that from the Iranian standpoint, that's a risk, and that's one of the

ways in which Iran's retaliatory attacks might backfire against Tehran. Again, the GCC countries

were not in favor of the U.S. and Israel waging this war. They saw this as completely unnecessary

and dangerous. However, as you did point out by now, Iran has crossed the red lines for these

countries by directly attacking them, especially attacking civilian infrastructure in these countries,

and now they see themselves as needing to take action in order to uphold their national defense,

and we are hearing a lot of talk about some in the GCC probably taking direct military action

against Iran. I think that as this conflict continues, they will feel as if they're under more

pressure to respond in such a manner. All of this is serving to further escalate the conflict

and to bring new layers of complexity to us. It's a highly volatile situation, and I might be asking

the impossible of you right now, but I would like to know if you can, you know, make an educated

guess, how could this war reshape the Gulf? Well, I think that we need to keep in mind that it was

about three years ago when Saudi Arabia and Iran re-normalized diplomatic relations in Beijing

that was through an agreement that the Iraq use and Omani's helped facilitate,

and this marked the beginning of a new period of detent in the relationship between Saudi Arabia and

Iran. I have to assume that at this point, this period of detent is over as a consequence of Iran's

actions toward Saudi Arabia and the other five GCC countries. I'm not necessarily sure that this

is going to result in Saudi Arabia or other GCC members fully severing diplomatic relations with

Iran, although that's possible. But again, the period of detent is over and the Gulf Arab states

are going to perceive an increasingly heightened threat from Iran. At the same time, this past week

of chaos in the Gulf has demonstrated that the United States, which is a security guarantor for

all six GCC states, has again failed to keep the Gulf Arab monarchy secure and protected from

regional threats. So I think to get to your question, I really think we're going to enter a new

period of heightened distrust between the GCC states in Iran and a period in which GCC members

increasingly militarize. They are going to try to become more autonomous from the United States

and to try to become more self-sufficient when it comes to protecting their own national security.

Now, the extent to which they will succeed in doing so time will tell, but the countries of the

Gulf are going to have to revisit basic concepts of security because the Gulf depends on an image

of peace and stability. This is how these countries attract tourists and how they attract

investment from abroad. With the Gulf on fire this past week, that image has been completely

destroyed. All the C-makers in the GCC are going to have to find a way to move forward so that

their countries can again restore stability and security that's needed for their economies to

prosper in the future. As Georgia Caffeero founder of Gulf State Analytics, thank you so

much for your insights. It's always great to have you on the show. And a quick summary now,

the latest developments in the war. Israel's military says it has started a new wave of strikes

on Iran targeting regime infrastructure in both Tehran and Isfahan. Iran's president,

Mazud Pzezhkin says several countries have begun mediation efforts to end the escalating conflict

with the U.S. and Israel, although we offered no further details. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald

Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social that there will be no deal with Iran.

Instead, he called for, quote, unconditional surrender. He said the U.S. and its allies would

afterwards work to rebuild Iran.