Why Trump's War Is Only About Himself: Wolff

0:00Jackson Hewitt has a great tax prep deal, $149 or less. Missing out is like ignoring the check engine light in your car. You regret it. Seriously, the price is only $149 or less, no matter how complicated. So don't wait. Like when you get a password expired today alert or you're shopping online and there's only one item left, it's like your taxes are in the cart, just complete the purchase. Hurry, this deal for $149 or less is like your phone at 1%. It's about to power down. Limited time offer for new clients on federal returns participating locations only in terms of Jackson Hewitt.com. Slash 149. Iran is a country, it's a deeply, it's a deeply factional situation. What is the result of what he's saying? The result is, I don't know, chaos, anarchy, civil war. We don't know what our goals, the goals of the United States are. We don't know what the goals, the personal goals of Donald Trump are. We don't know what the goals of the Iranian people are. He likes the fact that that war gives him a platform.

1:02Nobody talks about anything else. It is, of course, the wag the dog scenario. You go to war, it's war. And who is at the center of war, Donald Trump, the man waging the war. Michael. Joanna. Oh, that's good. You remember my name because on our last podcast, I could see you gropeing for it. You didn't have to see, I think I acknowledged. I completely forgot in your name, but I've practiced. OK, so Marco Rubio wakes up this morning to possibly an entirely new job taking over Iran as we are recording this, which is Saturday morning, is really television and radio. Possibly. But I wouldn't jump that conclusion because I literally think nobody knows, this is not even the fog of war. We've gone into the black hole of war. But in the back, all I would say is that Israeli radio and television are reporting that

2:05the leader of Iran has been killed in a nest, right? Right. But what we saw reporting last week is that the Iranians had anticipated this and had set up a hierarchical structure that would replace anyone in the leadership who was killed immediately replace them, that their entire goal was the survival of the regime. Right. So they had succession planning in place where anything to happen to him. All right. So let's just real back a moment for people who haven't joined us before and don't care if either of us can remember each other's names. I'm Joanna Coles, your Michael Wolf. And where are we going? We are going inside Trump's head and we are doing this as an act of political analysis and analysis that nobody else does and for that reason, we believe everybody gets most

3:10things wrong. But nothing else matters and let's emphasize this literally nothing else matters except what comes into Trump's head by some ridiculously long held opinion he's had, something that he's woken up with, something that the last person he spoke to has told him for from whatever sources and by whatever measure and by whatever, by whatever truthfulness. What happens in the United States, what happens in the world as we're seeing happens because it has set off something in his mind and he goes, yeah, yeah, let's do that. This is and the entire administration conforms to this because all anybody in the White House is interested in is what's in Trump's head and actually a lot of things happen because

4:12they try to anticipate what's in Trump's head. But this is, as we have pointed out, so many times in which so many people get wrong, a government of one. A government of one, a country of one at the moment, a world of one and it's Trump himself says about himself, he has, he doesn't drink but he has an alcoholics personality, meaning as anybody who knows an alcoholic or has had to deal with an alcoholic over any length of time, knows what you're actually dealing with is extreme unpredictability. So even as you say his administration is trying to play and anticipate what's going on inside his head, that's a sycophian task because nobody knows, including him much of the time. And also he's been asked, he's been asked on a number of occasions, actually I have asked him this question, who do you trust, who do you consult, who do you take advice from?

5:14And then he looks at you and I can see this now vividly, this kind of expression and it's an expression of what a strange question to ask me. And then his answer is me, I only trust myself, I only take advice from myself, I am the person, I consult about all major decisions. And also he sometimes says that he just goes with his gut, that he has great instincts and we know what's in his gut, his lifetime supply of fast food, of chicken fillet or whatever those sandwiches are, of quarter pounders, of big max, of coke, diet coke, that he has a button on the resolute desk that he presses, a story that you broke to bring in more sugar. So we are at the mercy of Trump's gut. I would say that the other thing in his gut is just an incredible survival instinct. He does, he does what he needs to do to gain another day. So which brings us

6:22too. Right. Has he gained another day and why now? Is, is why now because there's intelligence of where Hameini was going to be and that's why they moved? Or is there a bigger political reason why now given what's going on? No, I think that's a mistake to assume that there's a bigger political reason. The reason always has to come back to what's in Trump's head. And I think that there are there are two things that were in Trump's head. First thing, for whatever, for a combination of reasons, he found himself with this incredible U.S. Armada ready to attack Iran. So he couldn't, what could they do? Go home. Could he throw up his hands and say, oh yeah, okay, no, no, we're going home. No, he had to do something. Then he made these gestures about a limited attack. And we

7:28still don't know if this is actually a massive attack or this is is Trump's this this limited attack because what the other thing in his head overriding everything is how do I declare victory? So that is it. I have to whatever I can do, I got to get out of this thing. I have to be able to declare victory. So and the premise that he set up here from a from a tactical standpoint is problematic, which is I'm only going to bomb. I'm not going to send in ground troops. It is very hard to affect regime change if you don't do that. If you don't actually go in and hold the capital and hold and hold the television stations and hold the military and their barracks and all doing doing all of that. So if you are only bombing the question is how much can you change? And

8:36that's not necessarily a question for for him because I don't really think it is it doesn't it isn't really a question of of how much of what we have to do these are our goals. The goal is what is the scenario in which I get to claim victory? Over the years I began to notice an interesting trend. A lot of guys have told me about how as they age they feel slower, more sluggish. But Mars Ben says they're here to help. Designed to help boost your body's natural testosterone levels. Marsmen use eight natural clinically dozed ingredients like zinc, boron and vitamin D. Some men reports steady or energy not like drinking a cup of coffee but a more consistent boost throughout the day according to Marsmen. For a limited time our listeners get 50% off for life plus free shipping and three free

9:43gifts at mengo2mars.com. It's a perfect way to get yourself in gear. That's mengo2mars.com for 50% off in three free gifts at checkout. After you're purchased they'll ask you where you heard about them. Please support our show and tell them our show sent you. We should play from his speech the speech where he announces that he's going to be bombing Iran or we as America is going to be bombing Iran. We should play the speech where he calls upon the Iranian people to rise up because it's an interesting direct appeal to them. It's the opposite of what obviously George W. Bush did with their whole idea for regime change and putting in an American administration. This is about him appealing directly to the Iranians who

10:45were protesting last month and who he said help was on the way to. Let's just hear specifically what he said. To the great proud people of Iran I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand stay sheltered don't leave your home it's very dangerous outside bombs will be dropping everywhere when we are finished take over your government it will be yours to take this will be probably your only chance for generations. For many years you have asked for America's help but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want. So let's see how you respond. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action.

11:48Do not let it pass. Thoughts. Oh well I mean the problem here is the pronoun. You who is you. I mean you know Iran is a country it's a deeply it's a deeply factional situation. So what is he saying is he saying well he's not saying anything is the point but what is the result of what he's saying. The result is I don't know chaos. Anarchy. A civil war a situation even more precarious and unpredictable than the current situation. So so we don't know so this is back to this black hole thing. We don't know what our goals the goals of the United States are we don't know what the goals the personal goals of Donald Trump are we don't know what the goals of the Iranian people are. I don't know it's it's well we know enough that there are a lot of Iranian people who are

12:54protesting against a really dominant violent unpleasant regime. We know that Iran has been a problem in the Middle East for some time. We know that it's been a headache for America for many years. I thought that there's another part in the speech which we should refer to where he basically gives a potted history of Iran. It's as almost as if he's giving it to himself as much as to anybody else but reminding people of the American hostages which is such a boomer moment. It's probably perhaps the the moment most seared on boomers memories in terms of foreign policy. Jimmy Carter tried to release them absolute disaster. Reagan swings into power and immediately they're released and I wonder if that's at the back of Donald Trump's head too. Yeah I mean I don't know I doubt yes there's always a mishmash of factual semi-factual and historical references that he doesn't quite understand and that he is skimmed over.

13:59I'm sure someone's given him a deep briefing document and he's just kind of enough with that. Yes and I think that I've mentioned before I just I just recently read this extraordinary book King of Kings about the Iranian Revolution and but I am sure that Donald Trump did not read that book but everyone else should because it really sets the stage for for an understanding that that Iran has been probably the single most pivotal field of contention foreign contention from the last several generations and everything comes comes out of that and that we have gotten this wrong so many times and it's such in the end an incredibly complicated situation of which Donald Trump is not going to want to deal with does not want to deal with is

15:02not going to deal with and the thesis being that we will that we will use this this overwhelming what what may be this overwhelming example of shock and awe to destabilize the situation and then claim victory. Well as as we're talking Iranian television is now saying that Hamani is alive as far as I know and he's likely to give us speech so well yes I guess that would indicate if he gives the speech and that's it was pre-regarded yes and that's it was pre-regarded just to mess with people so really the fog of war truth is we have no idea what's going on and and the thing is you know I again and I was we we we spoke about this this the other day when someone in the in the the the median last week in the situation room is that Trump kept repeating

16:06that he wanted to do what we did in Venezuela and and and so far I think we're we're we're on we're on script for that and then let's see and then we're going to see in the next number of hours days how far off script we go and we can go really grievously off script we can and also we I mean as you say the normal metrics for success on something like this really don't apply because it's about what does Donald Trump want out of this and will he get it and how does he in again what he wants out of this is never like other people other other presidents set somewhat some at least in some sense particular goals out of this but the goal of I just want a victory is um

17:09yeah it's an entirely other way of looking at at foreign policy but in a foreign policy agenda right and he hasn't had a victory trying to resolve what we said on Thursday is actually one of the biggest issues globally Ukraine and Russia he said he was going to resolve it he hasn't resolved it in fact there was a story that you and I talked about earlier in the spectator about UK intelligence and Western Europe intelligence intersecting calls of Russian intelligence including lots of people close to Putin laughing at how Putin has been playing Donald Trump well I think it's complete bullshit and and if it comes out of the British press it's probably made up so it's the way of truth about it I mean why do I think it has the ring of truth about it it's

18:09certainly true that every time they have it I mean this has done nothing I mean Putin I mean I know that that line of reasoning of that that that that Trump is a laptop to Putin but it actually hasn't played out I mean Ukraine he hasn't resolved Ukraine that's definitely true but that is still an incredible problem for for and and probably to some degree unreported for Russia that they are running out of manpower they are the economy is is really finally teedering on the on the on the verge over over Ukraine they're not making you know the progress that they make in their war and they're they're making yes somewhat prog but it is so incremental at such a cost I mean we're talking about in in Ukraine you know what I don't know 1.2 1.4 million casualties at this at this point this is an unmitigated disaster for Vladimir Putin and I think it very well

19:10could be could result in the end of the guy so I'm I'm not sure that that that Trump people have been saying that for the last two years about Putin well he could have been saying that the last two years but this is this is you know a war of attrition takes a very long time and then it's really about who can stand at the longest and so between the Ukrainians and the Russians I don't know it continues on I mean Trump has has while he has threatened the Ukrainians and this that the other things linsky and the oval office we are still basically delivering the weaponry and the and the support to to Ukraine for them to continue to push on in this war I mean if if the Russians are laughing at Trump over this and there are many things to laugh at Trump about um I I would say that they are out of touch with reality about what they themselves are facing

20:13all right so how does the Iranian bombing play with the macabase well I think I think it doesn't play um well I think everybody they're all going to be skeptical about that I think Trump gets a relative pass if he gets out of there very quickly declares victory um if this gets bogged down if American lives start to be lost it'll be a catastrophe I mean you heard him in his speech say it's possible there might be a loss of American lives I did but that's different from there actually being American lives lost so we'll we'll see what um you know and I think probably he's somewhat worried you know I mean we know what what what some of what the generals have said that this is uh this could be a very very complicated

21:15situation and it could be um it could put lots of American lives at risk um he's obviously bedding let's do it like we did in Venezuela um you know you can get out you know and he has this idea now we can bomb bomb um and that that is you know that's an old right wing idea that bombs can solve everything bomb them back into the stone age um and um uh uh and and I'm sure that that is you know that's that's what he's hoping for right right now that that 10 days from now we're out of there and he's and he's claiming victory no no boots on the ground we just have left a lot of smoldering ruins and um and then uh wiped our our hands of the problem and we've obliterated the nuclear sites that we thought we've literated last so double obliteration

22:17double obliteration yes but I mean but this could it could be a catastrophe for him or it could be a victory I mean as you're always saying he has feral instincts for seizing but it could be the cause of victory and the victory it could be the claim of a victory I don't think it can be a victory unless we we we went in and occupied the country which we're clearly not going to do all right so Pete Hegseth learning from perhaps his boss uh his boss is all or nothing attitude to deal making um sent a memo Friday at five o'clock saying that's it was stopping using anthropic AI which the military uh and their national security forces have been using for the last year I think it was the first AI I AI company to really help with national security uh anthropics CEO said that they felt that the military wanted to use them

23:23for reasons that didn't feel good to them well actually back up because they were really negotiating this this um this out and there were and there were basically two issues that the company had to kind of kind of beyond which we can't go points which is the use of the um of this AI software to to um to spy on Americans right max observation um number one and a number two the use of this this software in autonomous weaponry in other words weaponry that was not supervised by a human being by gray bolts so so that was there um uh there we we can't we can't cross that line now that's an interesting it this this then became this interesting kind of dispute because actually that's what the law says the law says you can't use use um uh AI to spy on

24:26Americans um I mean you you you can't spy there there's a a body of law about spying on Americans which would which would be um which would preclude the use of AI for that and um and and also that's that's the law relates to weaponry too you have to have a human interface there so it was unclear what they were what the fight was about um except that I mean was it a fight about cultures about the insistence that AI companies control how their products is used well yes theoretically but but to what point and I think the point you sort of have to read into into this that yes that's what the law says but the Trump administration doesn't always follow the law uh the Trump administration is the law remember that giant thing they've just unfurled outside the DOJ right so that was so

25:30so so the the um the anthropic position was you know yeah we're willing to function within within the law now now now curiously then the Hegsitz said no you have to that you're the only restrictions on on this software have to be the the restrictions that already exist in the law but those restrictions already did exist in the law so this is this was incredibly hard to understand exactly what the stakes are and exactly what the um um uh what each side actually wanted now I mean I think you have to then ask this broader question and it's obviously the very pressing question is is um is who's in charge of this AI stuff um on a on a you know not on a corporate level and not uh uh not necessarily I'm not on a defense department level but what are the political choices that we have made about this what is the social agreement in terms of AI and so we're suddenly

26:37left in this situation in which in which this is being fought out by you know frankly two bad actors who who would you want to determine the future of the future really um the Trump administration or Silicon Valley these are both people we we I think in a in a um they're uh that we have no reason to trust and I don't think anybody does trust them well and clearly both of them are looking to make enormous gobs of money from this too I mean I read a figure that 50 billion dollars venture capital that has gone into the American military and providing AI and also in the whole American military in the last yeah what on what happens to um uh to AI but and then it's this interest I mean there's this whole drama that has played out of course with the with the tech people bonding I mean the tech people who used to hate the Trump people then bonded with

27:41the Trump people um precisely because they could they can so that they could influence the regulations which would or or influence the Trump administration to to impose a lack of regulation right so they all went up I mean David sat right David sat sitting at the top of it uh and then of course the irony of a meal Michael uh who's within the Trump organization now and was frantically tweeting out anti-anthropic tweets saying that Dario emoji who's the CEO and co-founder of anthropic was behaving like a tech god and of course that's exactly what a meal Michael was accused of when he was a uber with Travis County let me do my my a meal Michael's story so I go I have an a meal Michael's story um um uh mine mine mine mine mine has actually been dramatized uh so okay um so I went to a dinner for uber and I think this was in 2015 um and um um um

28:49um and I was invited just because I was a journalist to go to a when one of these yeah they have these of the records sort of interesting dinners I've been to a couple of yeah they're not necessarily too interesting but um uh once I've been to have been fun but I've had different leadership so we have different standards also in terms of very possibly very fun um and this this actually turned out for many people to be to be um I don't know fun but fireworks and um but I brought uh another journalist to this dinner Ben Smith who was then actually running Buzzfeed news he's gone on to several um significantly greater positions since since then and um he was he was in fact sitting down at one end of the table and I was sitting down at the other end of the table but he was sitting with him with uh with um with michaels and um and I saw him I mean I saw their heads together I thought oh god you know these guys are not going to be stupid enough to um

29:52to engage with Ben yes and um but they did he's a very shrewd journalist they did and what a meal michaels who was drunk at the time uh started to go on about journalists I mean this is a dinner for journalists um he started to go on about the about journalists how much he hated them and how much he wanted to investigate them and how much he wanted to mount a counter offensive against journalists blah blah blah blah blah blah blah um which Ben then promptly reported and um I think I think um and michaels lost his job over that and then we were all um uh I don't think that's why michaels lost his job michaels lost his job over all the accusations of toxic masculinity at uber um which started with an accusation by uber employees that they taken him to a karaoke bar and soul this did not help um a meal michaels career in the tech business um and in fact then we were

30:55all um uh we we were the uber series I can't remember the name of it it was pretty good though we were all then um scripted and um played by actors in it and I was played by an actor who was significantly fatter than I am um oh that's so annoying that couldn't be more irritating to be represented by someone who's bigger than you yes absolutely unacceptable um no and actually Ben is fatter than I was and he got a thin actor anyway um super annoying but a meal michaels so that's another another interesting thing what that it would that it kind of seems like a lot of failed silicon valley guys have um have washed up in the trump administration this is where silicon valley guys go to die yeah and I think it's probably fair to say that a meal who's an incredibly smart operator um and was very successful at uber until he wasn't and until the culture

32:00was completely out of control but nevertheless he was a very successful operator and look how incredibly important uber is to our lives I should point out they actually sponsor an event that the the beast says but that's not why I'm saying this I mean it's just become an incredible utility um but the culture that he and Travis oversaw was so toxic that in the end the staff ended up rejecting the founders and they both left no and and they actually had the uber culture um was a kind of a prequel to the trump culture in lots of ways yeah absolutely bro culture no boundaries toxic masculinity and all sorts of accusations of sexual assault not I'm saying by a meal or by Travis but by drivers that they then hid uh and in fact it was one of I mean it was a junior employee and uh who posted a blog having tried to raise all sorts of concerns within the company

33:05structure and with the company HR and they ignored a Susan Fowler who went on to bring the founders of the company down all of this this whole tech culture obviously is um is germane to so many things now in influences so much including the trump administration um but also so the the other sub plot in this anthropic dispute has been that that Sam Altman um who's the CEO of open AI came in well first he announced his solidarity with anthropic of course and then and then went around and made a deal with the defense department so this is all we have all of this going there are bad actors everywhere in this well and also it's interesting to what extent can you as a company and I think this is where the culture comes in uh tell the government and in particularly the pentagon how you can use their software I mean obviously you want to stay

34:10within the grounds of the law but you know what if a a fashion company sells the uniforms to the military and then says well you've got to wear them with the cuffs up and you've got to do that but that's but that's but that's ridiculous Joanna and that's not the not the I'm just bringing it a fashion analogy it doesn't really mean anything to this so in this situation and and it is relevant you're making software for um uh that that has that has uses across the spectrum of contemporary life and you don't know and if you're the software designer um you have some agency here if somebody came to you and said design this but it might be used to spy on Americans well then you might have say no I'm not I'm not going to do this well and Google have been through this right Google went through exactly the same thing that staff complained and you do and you should have the right to say what your software can can and cannot do I have the right to sell my soft not sell my software to the government which is effectively what anthropic is doing doing

35:16right now I mean it's another situation then you if you do we're selling it to the government and we're going to go into a deal you know all software licenses are complicated documents and um and they're always always saying what you can and cannot do with it so and and when a private company enters into an agreement with the government there are those same negotiations take take place and you know if if it if it works for you as a private company um the agreement that's fine but if it doesn't or if in this case it appears that the government is then trying to trying to change that agreement well yeah then you can you can um go home why not it's your it's your um it's your software right and this is not a battle they have in China in China the companies just give it over and the government does what it wants it it's a fascinating discussion about whether or not if you sell your software to the US or to the Pentagon they should be allowed to decide what they do with

36:22I mean within the bounds of the law obviously and this is part of a much broader discussion about the constraints that should be placed on on artificial intelligence I mean a discussion which we've seen by the way rather incapable of having in any kind of kind of structured way well anybody's incapable of having it at the moment because it's so complicated and also there's the battle to beat China which seems to overhang and justify any overreach by AI meanwhile every day we all receive texts from people saying oh my god have you tried this it's changed my life you must use this it's changed my life blah blah blah the other aspect of this is that um is that anthropic is is put in a position to having a negotiate with Pete Higgsif um and and I think it goes to this another problem within the Trump administration of no one trusts them no one should trust them um you know you don't know and and and totally they're

37:24incompetent so it's probably very difficult to have a um to have a a reasonable negotiation with them yeah I'm sure Pete Higgsif having run to veterans organizations extremely badly uh is not the person you want to discuss and presumably a lot of the lawyers that would have helped him in the Pentagon have have left uh but then Sam Altman comes in and makes a um makes the deal yes um makes the deal for open AI um so let's let's um touch on what what I think is in an extraordinary issue now becoming that it may become the the central issue of our time which is the Trump administration's efforts to um uh it's sort of their acknowledgement that they can't win on a um on on a political basis um so that they're now trying to win this would be the

38:27the midterms by altering the fundamental terms of how elections are run obviously obviously in their favor um and um um you know and this is basically to take over um to take over elections which are been run by states in in the past by the constitution gives gives gives the states that power to run run and oversee their own elections but it's in and I've been I've been following this and listening to this and and it says though we we know they don't have a political strategy but they do now have what you might call in the and a piss an epistemological strategy which is this this interesting thing that they're saying the the the the argument is is well don't you think that um that um that anyone that only American citizens should be able to vote and of course the answer to that is well yeah yeah um because because that's the law of course um and but but

39:36then the practice becomes well why can't everyone then show proof of citizenship when they do show up to vote which suddenly means that first thing it's it's not so evident how you show proof of citizenship um actually a relatively small percentage of people in America or kind of surprisingly small percentage I have passports which is which would be the definitive proof of of citizenship um so that that that practice and and let's let's remember that no one has said this is a that this is a serious or any sort of problem in elections to date that non citizens are showing up to vote so but then you create a situation in which it's very hard to prove citizenship so you create a situation in which is fundamentally chaotic and fundamentally then offers the federal government

40:36infinitely more opportunities to interfere in the election process i.e in a way that would be in favor to the Trump administration right and we saw the we saw him in particular laying this out and presenting the democrats as cheating as having cheated at the election he kept using the word cheating i interviewed governor more a healy the governor of massachusetts last last week and i urge people to watch it if you want to see a sane uh technocratic get things done democrat uh she really laid out the case but she said how how nervous a lot of democratic governors are and they're having to take action um and lay out plans for if the national guard for example is sent in to start patrolling polling stations and how they're all beginning to think that the democratic governors are getting together to think about how do we counter this because this is very seriously a threat and as you say trump himself is very conscious he's unlikely to win the midterms that might

41:40mean impeachment for him it might mean worse for him it's possible they could lose the senate so the only thing that he has at this point is the ability to so distrust and concern around the validity of the elections and we saw talsy gabbard go down to forten county in georgia and pull out all sorts of remnants and votes from the 2020 election that he lost obviously to Joe Biden and you know trump called the the FBI workers who are there doing that raid again just something that breaks all norms that the president would call FBI agents and encourage them in the work they're doing now if the midterms are existential for trump and they and they will they may be um what does a survivalist do and the answer is he does anything that he has to do to survive

42:40well and he may be facing the prospect of jail too as he keeps saying and you you know brilliantly titled your last your last book about trump all or nothing and you know just to take it back to Epstein again this extraordinary friendship between two men one of whom ends up swinging his legs from the chair behind the resolute desk at the white house and the other ends up dead in a jail in Manhattan and that sort of spectrum of possibility i'm sure haunts trump in as much as anything i think we could call that existential so to what extent do you think he's paying attention to the Epstein files at the moment i mean it is the story that won't go away so he's been very good at changing the subject remember two weeks ago we were talking about minnesota minnesota is just completely i think i think probably less than we would think um you know he he's i mean i first

43:43thing i i think he's pretty good at compartmentalizing these things and pretty good at understanding that that this turns the page on that so right now among the other things i mean i mean you know i'm not sure that he really wanted to find himself in in a war with aron um and and and i think that was a set of dominoes that that he might he might walk back if he could but the advantage of that is of course that is that that is the headline now um and um and he is at the center of it so again you know the thing about the war thing which i think freaks the mega people out is that it turns out that he likes the posturing of this i mean he likes the fact that though that war gives him a platform nobody talks about anything else it is one of those things what can change the subject i mean the ultimate it is of course the wag the wag the dog scenario you go to war

44:47it's war um and who is at the center of war donald trump the man waging the war who last week was launching his board of peace and half the people that he invited to subscribe large subscription fears we know he started off with a billion dollars entry fee for his board of peace that's going to be the most influential board of peace ever and the biggest global the biggest global most important just rivaling everything of course he invites uh uh a rum bunch of world leaders to join him in dc and then promptly starts a war less than a week later starts war as if he's become bored of the board of forces well on this of course this will become what's happening in a ryan will become making peace there i've made peace and so he's solved another war there will be ten here it be ten wars but you couldn't help feeling for the heads of the middle eastern countries who'd come and i'm sure have paid hands from me to join

45:51will be early founding members of the board of peace um that their countries are now receiving incoming from iran so let's do another victory here okay i knew what you were going to say knew you were coming to this because this is an interesting victory the so trumps enemy his enemy since since he began his political career has been in perhaps his central enemy in a way has been cnn and now um so uh uh uh two days ago three days ago um this day i think cnn will be taken over by a company that basically exists because of trump's support which is this which is to say that um that skydance uh which took over paramount and skydance is controlled by the elison family trump supporters um they were able to take over paramount partly with trump

46:52support and now they are taking over warner brothers discovery which includes cnn in a remarkable deal we should add for david zazloff the ceo of warner brothers who wrote an extensive profile about last year but who took miraculously the stock up from seven dollars to thirty one dollars just playing this deal out and we know that netflix uh looked like they'd locked in the deal ted sarandas was very excited he'd gone to the white house it looked like it was a done deal and then paramount launched a hostile takeover and then this week up to their offer which really meant that netflix walks away now let me let me look at this in a slightly different way david zazloff yes comes out as the as the um as the true winner in this deal but i think that there's a way and you look at it that the only way you win in the media business is to get out of it is to

47:58sell out of it and so and so we're looking at so netflix lost this deal but i think there's a way to i'm a very logical way to see that um um that netflix and especially they by forcing this a higher and higher price for paramount to pay has led paramount to the slaughterhouse um i mean there's such a theory that they're actually thrilled about this because this means paramount is going to spend the next few years paying down an enormous amount of debt for this deal i'm trying to incorporate the culture if you look at every one of these media deals and i used to be in the business of looking at these media deals these major media conglomerations they're all a failure everybody everybody goes down the drain everybody um or the only hope as in the days david zazloff case is that you can far bit off on on on somebody on somebody it's literally

49:05past the past you remember when somebody you can sold time Warner to 80 and teach john stanky and yeah it's just like get rid of this thing and it's always a series of get it of getting rid of this i mean and every deal has resulted in in a catastrophe i mean disney is now is now in a in a you know you know continues to be in a significantly weaker position because they bought rupert murdox company um and and we continue i mean in viacom which was was was a disaster until um until the elicence came along and bought it um down the road one after another um that's uh there there there just is no there is no good outcome of this and uh and the elicence may be the the last man standing there is no one to sell to uh they've they've created a situation in which the buck stock stops with them i don't know how they get out of this so much speculation

50:10about what happens with cnn assuming the deal goes through and we should point out the california ag has said not so fast this may not go through uh and they're supposed to be looking at it though it's unclear actually what the california ag can really do here but assuming the deal goes ahead does this mean do you think the merging of cbs news and cnn does it mean the spin-off of cnn mark tomson the current cio of cnn issued a very british statement he is british former cio of the new york times and the bbc the director general of the bbc issued a very british statement saying keep calm and carry on everybody at cnn uh we've got such a new z environment at the moment let's just do what we do best keep working stay focused but hard not to think yeah that means he's a goner um and he he gets a huge payout too so jeez he's i'm sure that he can't wait until that door closes behind him well and you can't help feeling for anderson kupa who was you know who got a

51:15brief moment of glory when he left 60 minutes saying he wasn't going to stay only to realize four days later that in fact paramount was going to buy cnn um yeah i guess um anderson kupers headed for youtube that probably who headed for youtube right where else and here we find ourselves on youtube and we love it we love it we love our comments we love our viewers we love the direct ability to talk to the audience i highly recommend i would certainly i would certainly rather be here than in any media organization um um well i like to think the daily beast is is an media organization and we're we're benefiting from both um but but what happens does barry wise that now uh notorious uh perhaps that's the best word to to use for her at the moment um ahead of cbs news where she's had a very bumpy start since david elison bought her

52:19start up the free press does she stay in charge of cnn do you think or do you think they bring in a much more seasoned operation yeah i i'm i'm sure they well they they've probably um america leads the world in medicine development it matters we get new medicines first nearly three years faster five million americans go to work because we make medicines here at home and not relying on other countries keeps us safe but china is racing to overtake us will we let them or will we choose to stay ahead when america leads america cures let's tell washington to keep us in the lead learn how at america cures dot com pay for by farma i thought some about this but not too much about this i mean they just got this company the other day um right but they've been planning on doing this for some time they must have some kind of strategy well you know jesus i would never assume these people have strategies um i i don't it's and i and i don't know and they but they

53:21probably they um i i mean there's a lot of different questions here i mean there's a question of do you merge these organizations you keep them separate um you know i mean there's different thing the broadcast broadcast news broadcast culture versus cable news cable culture uh virtue versus the whole business model of these two of these two different things which are which are quite quite different in themselves um and and then the and then always the question of these entertainment guys is do they really want to be in the news business and the answer i can answer that question they don't really want to be in the news business well that they may have looked at fox news and thought fox news is making money has been a very successful business why has no one taken fox news on why are the broadcast networks and cnm perceive to be liberal news and why isn't there a rival to fox yeah but even that has business um i'm i mean huge

54:26business problems in in um in implementing that i mean i mean cnm gets to get its position in um on on cable networks because it's the opposite of fox if it became fox then cable networks who pay the bills i mean all of the money basically comes from the cable come from cable companies who are and their subscribers then the cable companies say hey to to conservative stations which one do we want fox or or um or cnm i mean these are these are major business problems and then layer on top of that that it's the cable it's the cable business which is collapsing as we speak and has for has for some time i mean that's the business that the elephants have gotten themselves into i mean just one that's actually just one one of the problematic parts of an incredibly problematic business at virtually every turn there is across there there that the the spectrum

55:28of businesses that they have very few optimistic notes well i think all we can say is come on in Anderson the waters warmer youtube there's going to be a lot of people leaving cnm i fear um well michael johanna we've covered a lot of ground um and um and always more to go and always more to guys we'll be back on Tuesday god willing and until then everybody please leave us a comment on what you think of all the different things we've talked about iran what's going on inside trump's head there and thropic should companies be allowed to specify how the government uses their product and warner brothers what are you going to be watching that's going to be a big big series of options a huge bundle there i'm not sure i need any of it apart from maybe h we know well you don't most and a good part of the audience has long

56:31ago decided that right Michael before we go i want your advice i am following in your footsteps and launching a sub stack next week it's going to be called primal scream which i think we mentioned on our last podcast but i i want so much following in my footsteps that you've merely replaced the word scream for uh what mot howl which is what mine is called but you know what i like doing what i feel my gesture of the moment is is to just go like this and become the scream i'm going to continue to carve on this i think you should change your name it's i'm totally not changing it primal scream it's a very good name it's named after a rock band and i like the visual when i was looking at the different vision considering that i am your partner in this and then doesn't you don't think people are going to say gee she just stole that from him they may do they may think that but then i'm going to be writing as about slightly different things to the things you're writing about

57:35or i'm going to be writing about obviously all the reasons we need to scream but i'm going to be throwing in some more culture stuff and i want to talk about you know beauty and what it's like being a slightly older woman in this culture i use the word slightly under advisement well we're advice how often should i be writing do you do you read your comments do you answer your comments i do i do i do i mean comments on on sub stack are somewhat more manageable because because you're only your paid subscribers get to make a comment now i'm not sure actually that's true that that may be a choice that you that you that you make but in my case only the paid subscribers get to comment and what sort of comments do they leave they leave you know intelligent comments they're engaged with them with with the material they they're they're they're smart they're worthy of engagement they're worthy of engagement good as

58:40are our comments on on youtube and i always feel a sense of enormous frustration that i can only ever answer a very limited number because so many people have so many really valuable thoughts and good ideas and different takes on things and it's impossible to answer as many as we have but i love the conversations and actually when we drop the podcast and it goes live for the first time there's a very lively spirited conversation about people who are used to being there and awaiting for and then there is a different slightly more reflective nature of comment with them with people who leave them in the youtube comments in the in the non-live comments and i just want to remind people that the address is beast.pub forward slash scream so beast.pub forward slash scream see you on sub stack see you on sub stack michael so the good news is we have so many bee beast tier members now there are too many names to read out and we really appreciate your support thanks to our

59:44production team devin rogerino ryan marie rachel passe heather persaro neal rosenhaus us a knows dynamic duos can save the day like super heroes and sidekicks or auto and home insurance with us a you can bundle your auto and home and save up to 10% tap the banner to learn more and get a quote at us a dot com slash bundle restrictions apply it's tax season and at life lock we know you're tired of numbers but here's a big one you need to hear billions that's the amount of money and refunds the irs has flagged for possible identity fraud now here's another big number 100 million that's how many data points life lock monitors every second if your identity is stolen will fix it guarantee one last big number save up to 40% your first year visit life lock dot com slash podcast for the threats you can't control term supply