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More than 40% of the United States is experiencing drought heading into the spring, and that
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dryness combined with warmer than average conditions is setting the stage for an active
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start to the wildfire season in parts of the country.
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AccuWeather meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said, the most concerning areas this spring
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will stretch from the interior west into the plains with additional pockets of elevated
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risk across Florida and parts off the mid-Atlantic.
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Conditions across the four corners have been exceptionally dry and warm this winter with
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record low snowpack reported in some areas and long-term drought firmly in place.
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That combination raises concerns about early fuel drying before the landscape has a chance
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Buckingham said that across the nation this spring, the four corners region and the adjacent
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front range and high plains are expected to feature the highest risk for wildfire activity.
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On Tuesday, the Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management reported widespread wildfire
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activity across Beaver, Texas, and Woodward counties prompting activation of the state
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emergency operations center and coordinated support from multiple state, federal, and tribal
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The Ranger Roadfire alone has burned an estimated 145,000 acres with grass and brush burning
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across both Oklahoma and Indicanzas on Wednesday and the continued threat of critical
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fire weather conditions, combined with several other smaller fires, including the Stevens,
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Side Road, and 43 road fires.
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The total acreage impacted across the region has topped 155,000 acres.
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About half a dozen structures were destroyed on Tuesday after the blaze started.
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Fear swends gusting over 60 miles per hour helped propel flames rapidly north eastward
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through dry grasslands, overwhelming initial containment efforts, and grounding aerial
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firefighting operations.
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High wind speeds have also contributed to dangerous blowing dust and poor visibility,
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creating secondary hazards for travelers on regional roadways.
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Above average temperatures and below average precipitation are expected to persist across
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the region through much of the spring.
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When strong wind events develop, especially before widespread vegetation growth,
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fire danger can escalate quickly.
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Below average snowfall will also cause wildfire concerns in Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming.
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Storms in March should help limit early season fire risk, but drier conditions in April and May
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could allow fuels to dry earlier than the historical average.
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In California, a few storms late in the winter could help offset some short-term dryness,
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but fire concerns will increase by May.
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Higher humidity will help reduce the fire thread along the coast,
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but any wind events could briefly spike that risk.
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Accuether will provide a more detailed breakdown of the California wildfire forecast later in the spring.
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Temperatures have been above too well above average across much of the central and southern
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plains this winter, while drought has expanded and intensified.
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When fronts move through with gusty winds, it will create prime conditions for fast-moving fires
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with the western halves of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and Eastern Colorado,
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likely to face a moderate to high risk for wildfire activity through the spring season,
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particularly during windy periods preceding green up.
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Farther north in the Dakotas and parts of Montana,
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late season snow will help to suppress overall wildfire risk compared to areas farther south.
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The wildfire risk is not expected to be as widespread in the eastern US as in other regions of the
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country, but there will be pockets where fires could break out when conditions align.
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Florida stands out as the area of greatest concern, in part due to winter freezes that may have
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damaged smaller vegetation adding to the availability of fuels.
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Portions of the southeast are expected to face the highest wildfire risk across the region,
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due to ongoing drought and the climatological tendency for dry stretches prior to the onset
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of the summer rainy season. In the mid-Atlantic, drought remains entrenched in some areas
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despite winter snow cover. The highest risk of wildfires will likely occur after the snow melts.
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The ground dries out and before trees and vegetation begins to leaf out.
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As spring progresses and vegetation emerges near to above average precipitation,
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should help keep overall fire danger near seasonal levels,
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though brief periods of elevated risk are possible on dry and windy days.
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Well, another force of nature reared its ugly head this week in California.
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Eight skiers were buried and died in an avalanche near Lake Tahoe in Northern California's
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Sierra Nevada Mountains amid heavy snow and extreme weather conditions. One skier is still missing.
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Six others participating in the three-day backcountry trip had previously been rescued
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with various injuries. The skiers were on the final stretch of their trip and were returning
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to the trailhead Tuesday morning when a wave of ice, rocks and debris came crashing down on them.
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The avalanche spanned about a football field's length of the mountain.
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The disaster at Castle Peak set off a dangerous hours-long rescue effort,
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hampered by heavy snow and strong winds from the winter storm roaring through the rugged Sierra
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Nevada Mountains. An avalanche warning remained in effect for the greater Lake Tahoe area through
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Thursday morning, as the search continues, rescue crews face additional rounds of snow,
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gusty winds and more avalanche danger this week that could hinder rescue efforts.
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That's all for now. You can find more regional forecasts and science-based articles at acuether.com
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and for your local forecast at your fingertips download the acuether app.
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Enjoy the rest of your day. Be safe. I'll be back tomorrow with more from acuether.
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