Will Avi Lewis be the NDP's next leader?

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This is a CBC podcast.

The NDP is set to choose its new leader.

The Prime Minister says there is more work to be done on a pipeline,

and the war in the Middle East nears the four-week mark.

It's Friday, March 27.

I'm JP Tasker.

The Power and Politics podcast starts now.

We begin on the NDP leadership race.

After a devastating federal election loss,

the party will choose its new leader this weekend.

There are five contenders running to lead.

The party voting is currently underway.

The winner will be announced on Sunday.

Avie Lewis is a candidate for the federal NDP leadership,

and he joins me now.

Nice to see you, sir.

Thanks for coming on.

Nice to see you, JP.

At least I wish I could see you, but nice to be here.

Thanks for joining us.

So you've pulled in more than a million dollars in donations.

You say your campaign team is actually larger than the one here

a party HQ in Ottawa.

Your list of endorsements is long.

Is this shaping up to be a bit of a coronation?

Never a word that I've liked, and anything can happen in politics.

And I think especially if we get past the first ballot, who knows,

but we've worked really, really hard.

We all have, I mean, all five campaigns have had a different offer.

I've been really honored to be in the race with my fellow candidates.

And we're sprinting here to the finish line,

and we're pleased to have had a really great energy and momentum

in the size and scale of our campaign.

But it is up to the members.

98,000 of whom are not here in Winnipeg.

So there's lots of people still online voting,

and we're going to keep pushing it right till the deadline tomorrow night.

One of your opponents in this race, Rob Ashton,

says that you are kind of the divisive choice for the leadership.

He says you've undermined provincial new Democrats,

you know, mocked the Alberta NDP government,

most notably the Environment Minister Shannon Phillips.

You've been critical of the current BC NDP government at times.

And given some of your past rhetoric, how can you be a unifier?

I think if you look at my past rhetoric,

it's been on points of principle,

and new Democrats enjoy a rich and fantastic history of disagreements,

with a shared rock solid commitment to the fundamental values,

which are about dealing with the horrific inequality in our society.

That's what I share with my own premier, Dave Ebie in British Columbia,

Rob Canoe, the premier here.

And I have warm relationship with Nahid Netchy.

We've talked, and our teams are in touch all the time.

There are all kinds of differences between a party that is making a federal offer

to all Canadians on national issues,

and the regional and provincial political contexts and economies

that all have their particularities.

So, you know, there's a way of describing these healthy democratic differences.

That is, in itself, divisive.

I understand what happens in a leadership race

that different campaigns take different approaches.

We have focused, laser focused,

on the cost of living emergency for Canadians,

on the fundamental crisis facing all of us,

which is that we're working harder and harder.

Life is more and more unaffordable.

Meanwhile, Gail and Weston is worth $20 billion,

and Big Banks and Canada made $70 billion in one year,

and those corporations and rich individuals are not being taxed enough,

and we're watching our social safety net shred in front of our eyes,

and now we have a government enacting austerity.

These are the pressing issues.

These are the issues that new Democrats agree on,

and that we've been fighting for for decades and decades.

We mentioned that head Nenshi.

He is not there in Winnipeg this week,

and he's had some disagreements with the federal party in the past,

especially as it relates to energy issues.

You know, you're against any new fossil fuel development.

I was looking at the data today from Statscan.

More than 150,000 people work directly in oil and gas jobs,

many more work and jobs indirectly tied to the sector.

The party lost, you know, part of its working-class base in the last election.

Don't you risk further alienating some blue-collar workers

by calling for this industry to be curtailed?

Well, listen, JP, it's not me.

It's a consensus in the world that oil is destabilizing our planet right now.

In many different ways, we are right now witnessing a destabilized planet

from war over oil, oil actually being bombed

and black toxic rain falling on 10 million people in Tehran

just a couple of weeks ago.

The entire, the most volatile region on Earth, the Middle East,

is now a flame with oil and oil-based wars.

And then we have oil driving a price shock right now,

where you go to the gas station and gas is more than two bucks a liter,

and it's going to go up from there.

That's going to drive a price shock,

which is going to drive the next wave of inflation.

The next inflation crisis is coming to us,

thanks to the skyrocketing price of oil.

And that's all without talking about the fact that oil is destabilizing our planet

by being the major contributor to climate breakdown.

Those 150,000 oil and gas workers in Alberta

and across this country in Saskatchewan, in Newfoundland,

they deserve our thanks for keeping the lights on for more than a century in this country.

But it is time for us to move beyond the boom and bust destabilized cycle of fossil fuels

and everybody knows it.

Just this week in the UK, they pass new rules that every new home build

needs to have a heat pump and solar panels as a direct result

to the oil shock that we are living right now.

Countries around the world are moving to a safer, calmer,

more secure and more stable economy,

which is one beyond oil and gas.

No one ever bombed a factory full of sunlight, JP.

No one's ever gone to war over the wind.

We need to have a more secure and stable future,

and everyone on Earth knows what that looks like.

And we in Canada have been throwing our law in with the United States

by doubling down on fossil fuels, on militarization,

and on unchecked generative AI.

We in the NDP have a different vision,

a different path to offer Canadians,

one of more stability, one of more security,

a calmer, safer, healthier future,

where we put the vast resources of this country directly into solving

the actual crises in our healthcare system,

in the price and the skyrocketing cost of living,

and in the daily emergencies that Canadians face.

On the issue of Iran, the government is preparing to help

potentially open up the Strait of Hormuz

with some of our NATO allies,

but only if there's a ceasefire in these hostilities.

Would you support Canada helping secure peace

in the region after this war is over?

Of course, I mean, the NDP is the party of peace,

and we believe the Canada should use it standing

on the international stage to encourage negotiation

to get people back to the table.

But unfortunately, the Prime Minister has sent a lot of mixed messages

when in this irreprehensible illegal attack

by Israel still committing genocide in Gaza,

and the United States still threatening to annex us,

and in the first hours of that attack,

the Prime Minister celebrated it,

then he walked it back,

and now he's trying to find a new position,

which is more in sync with Canadians across the country,

who don't want Canada to be supporting

these Trump-led wars of adventure and destruction.

And so, of course, we support bringing parties together

and negotiating peace,

but let's remember that it is oil,

the United States' addiction to the interests

of the fossil fuel industry,

and other completely impenetrable reasons,

known only to Donald Trump,

that started this destabilizing,

and started this price shock,

which is going to affect every single one of us,

which is already driving up the price of everything in Canada.

And so, yes, we need a quick end to it,

but also we should never have supported them getting into it,

and we have to act as a country on the international stage,

which calms things down,

and prevents these kind of reckless interventions,

which are destabilizing our daily lives.

A vacancy will soon open in the Toronto Riding

of Beach's East Yorkshire.

The Liberal MP there is leaving for provincial politics.

If you win this leadership,

will you run in a by-election there?

Well, we're going to figure out what happens if we win on Sunday.

We're making lots of plans about the transition,

if needed, about places where I might run.

My primary focus, and I've said this many times,

is on rebuilding a party that is at the bottom of our electoral cycle,

but is already resurgent,

as we've seen in the extraordinary energy

and turnout at our rallies,

the scope of our campaign,

and the way that our base has been electrified

by the renewal of the party,

along the lines that our campaign has led with.

So I'm really, really interested in building us back as a fighting force.

We need to reinvigorate our riding associations,

as we've already started doing,

and actually identify local candidates.

Be election ready.

It may be that the Prime Minister achieves a majority through floor crossing,

which is not ideal,

and I don't think anyone really thinks

that's how our democracy should work.

But we need to be ready.

And so a party without status and a party with a debt

is a party that needs a lot of building at the base,

and it's been thrilling and exciting to see

that the NDP come back has already begun in this campaign,

and that's going to be my focus

until I feel we can lead into an election.

Other folks in the parties say though

that part of being ready is being in parliament

to take on the Prime Minister.

I mean, that's Heather McPherson's sales pitch to members,

that she's already an MP, she already is seat in the House of Commons.

We heard from former NDP leader Tom Melkair.

He said that, you know, you should be in this,

in the House, to take on the Liberals

if you want to be a viable opposition leader.

He says that the reason why you might not be running

is because you're worried you won't win.

Why not make the leap sooner rather than later?

Well, JP, thank you for giving me the opportunity

to say that I have no intention of taking advice from Thomas Melkair.

I think that he started the process

of our undoing as a party with a clear position

on the progressive side of the spectrum.

And I'm going to take advice from the people around me

and the people in the actual NDP right now

who have strong feelings about what our party needs.

I would love to be in the House of Commons.

I ran twice in places that I lived,

places that had never been won by the NDP.

I did well in those elections.

The last election we all got taken out

by a wave of fear of Trump.

And I will be back in the House of Commons.

Whether or not that is the absolute priority

is something that we're going to figure out going forward.

But we've got lots of exciting work to do in the NDP.

And it's worth reminding people inside the Ottawa bubble

that the rest of Canada is out here.

And the opportunity to crisscross the country

for almost seven months to meet people in communities,

to actually experience with Canadians the hardships of daily life

these days, and to talk about exciting solutions

that would make people's lives easier.

That feels like where politics is right now

for the NDP and for me.

And I'll stay out here until the right moment arrives.

Let's end on this note.

Your grandfather, of course, David Lewis led the party.

Your father, Stephen Lewis, was the leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party.

What would it mean to follow in their footsteps?

Well, I mean, it's funny.

I have a kind of a mixed identity coming into this race.

I've been an outsider making my own career in journalism

and filmmaking in activism.

And yet I have deep roots in the NDP and my dad and my grandpa.

And I grew up in the NDP of the 1970s.

Interestingly, a similar period of oil, price shocks,

of global instability, of inflation spirals,

and the need for big solutions

to the crises of everyday life in Canada.

Based on public ownership, which is what the NDP was arguing for back then,

as we are today.

So I feel really in line with a tradition,

a tradition of struggle, a tradition that reaches back to my great grandfather,

who was a Jewish socialist labor leader in Eastern Europe.

But so it's very emotional.

My dad is in his last days, and he is sticking around

to see the next chapter of Democratic Socialism

written in this country.

And more than anything right now, I want to give him a win on Sunday.

I'm sending our best to your dad.

Thanks so much for doing this.

Happy Lewis, NDP Leadership Canada.

Appreciate you making time for us.

Thanks, JP.

This weekend could be Make or Break for the Federal NDP.

The party will elect its new leader among these five candidates

who are all promising to rebuild the party

after its worst ever election result.

The two apparent frontrunners are filmmaker and activist Avi Lewis,

an NDP MP Heather McPherson.

I think there's an immense amount of political space for the NDP in this moment.

There's no party which is speaking up clearly and consistently against war.

There's no party that is speaking up clearly and consistently

about getting off the most destabilizing force in the global economy right now,

which is oil.

We want to make this country better for all Canadians.

And the goal has to be to win, though.

The goal has to be to elect more seats.

I think that is something that I bring as a member of Parliament.

As somebody who has won three elections and is currently sitting in the House of Commons.

I think that is something I bring.

Time now for our party.

Insiders Greg McEckrin is a former Liberal Ministerial Advisor.

Fred Delori is a former Conservative campaign manager.

Melanie Reeshe is a former communications director for the NDP.

Hi guys, nice to meet you all.

On this Friday, Mal, I'm starting with you today.

What's the word from Winnipeg?

What do you expect to go down this weekend?

Yeah, so busy weekend.

Obviously, you can hear behind you.

They're doing resolutions right now.

So figuring out what party policy is going to be moving forward.

Tomorrow there is the leadership showcase.

So we're going to hear from the leaders one last time so that folks can get their votes in.

And then we'll see on Sunday who ends up being leader.

I was saying to folks off the side of the beginning that I was really excited for the tribute to Jigmeet.

And that was today.

So that was really nice.

And it was nice to see the rain give him one last big hug before the rains are officially passed to the new leader on Sunday.

Fred, you wrote a piece in your sub stack this morning.

You had this title.

Avi Lewis is a first ballot lock.

The provincial NDP should be terrified.

Tell me about that.

Okay, love to.

Well, look, the math is pretty clear here.

There's five people running.

I would say the two bottom and their names I keep forgetting.

I've already forgotten.

Tony McQuayle.

Tony McQuayle.

Thank you.

Rob Ashton.

Rob Ashton, I remember.

But for this to go more than one ballot, those four people plus Heather McPherson need over 50% plus one.

Right.

Get it to another ballot.

Right.

I don't see any path for that from what I've been seeing.

And what really showed and took me off to this is the donor numbers.

The individual donors, over 60% of people who donate it to the NDP or to a leadership campaign,

donate it to Avi Lewis.

Yeah.

So that, you know, just looking at the numbers and having gone through a lot of leadership.

You're just the money.

It's the number of those.

It's the individual donors, right?

It's in the money.

He's also raised more money than the rest combined.

So all of that together just shows to me that I would be absolutely stunned if he does not get a first ballot win on this.

And to the other point in my piece that I wrote was what this means for the NDP.

Because he is the most far left leader this party will have ever had.

At a time when what we're seeing is people want someone more in the middle, I think.

So I think this is going to be a risk for the NDP and the way the NDP is structured,

they're not like the liberals and the conservatives who provincial and federal parties are not tied.

They're tied together.

They're one party.

And it's going to have an impact on the provincial ones.

Greg?

Well, there's an opportunity here to rebuild for the NDP.

I want to start off by saying, you know, some positive things.

When the Liberal Party was in dire straits in 2013, I think it was there.

He had a convention here.

And it was a real rebuild.

I think the Liberal Party was very lucky to have Bob Rae as the interim leader.

But a very interesting thing happened at that convention when the motion to legalize cannabis was passed.

And I remember, I believe it was Shantalli Bear, Susan Delacorte,

we're covering it and they were talking about how it was no longer.

It wasn't just, although it might have been put forward by the youth wing of the party,

everyone was voting for it.

Now, at the time, there was talk from then Prime Minister Harper about increasing, you know,

the criminal penalties around this.

And people, I think, were being practical and thinking about what they had done in university

and how this was going to affect their kids.

And then we fast forward, you know, the conservatives were against this.

They voted against it.

But, you know, last week, Pierre Paulier was trying to push the issue away.

I think that was a time where the Liberals decided, okay, we've had a huge loss.

This is a good time for us to kind of take stock and do brave things.

But my NDP friends, you know, are worried if Avi Lewis wins.

He's a nepotgrandbaby.

He's ran and never won.

And the thing that actually really bothers me is someone who's part of a party

that doesn't have a really strong provincial wing when we go west,

you know, the NDP, our government and official opposition

in a lot of provinces in Nova Scotia.

And the absolute disdain that he talked about, Rachel Notley and what they didn't know, Berda.

I just thought was one of the dumbest things I've ever heard a politician do,

which means it's more about Avi Lewis than it is about the NDP.

Yeah, and he was critical of David Eby and the BC NDP government too, especially on LNG.

Mel, what do you make at that point that he could be potentially toxic

for the provincial wings of the party in places where they've done well, like on the prairies?

Yeah, it's going to be a massive challenge for him if he is the person who wins on Sunday.

Our constitution works a little bit differently than it does for the conservators in Belarus.

We're all sincerely one big party that's tied in into the membership,

provincially, so not working well with the provincial parties.

And particularly the premieres or premieres in waiting in a lot of those provinces

is going to be harmful.

So he's going to need to change his approach absolutely and bring people in.

Because the person who wins on Sunday is not just the leader for the people who voted for them.

They become the leader for all new Democrats, be it people who are completely aligned with their vision of the party

or people who aren't, but are new Democrats.

So that'll be really important.

And if it is obvious on Sunday, he's going to have a lot of work to do.

And not just with premier Eby, with premier canoe and with the NDP leaders in all provinces

who aren't totally sure what that looks like if he's leader, but it will be important to keep the party together

because that's important not just for the way that our party works, be it organizing, be it memberships,

be it even the ability to fundraise, but really just the way that we are as an NDP family.

We all have the same values, or 99% of the same values, so the importance of bringing people in

because that's going to be the leader's job on on day one is, okay, you disagree with the different campaigns

during the leadership election, during the leadership campaign, but now you've got to bring everybody together

so that we can then go to Canadians and tell them we're united and this is what we're putting forward in the next election.

Rob Ashton, now called Mr. Lewis a divisive figure.

He said he was a divisive leader.

He said he was taking on the provinces.

Do you think that Mr. Lewis has it in him to be that unifier that you're speaking about?

Do you think that he has the characteristics to bring this whole party together?

You know, JP, I hope so, because if he is the leader, I want our party to do well.

I've obviously given most of my adult life to this to this project, so I wanted to succeed because I know how important it is.

You know, I talk about when things are bad, I go back and I read a text from somebody I love very much who told me

that their $400 dental care bill was $30 because of what Jigmeet and the NDP did and it reminds me that new Democrats are too important to go away.

So he'll need to. The thing that bothers me a little bit is even just off the top of the show when he was talking to you earlier, Jigmeet,

even taking shots at Tom Mulcare, which I definitely don't always agree with, but as somebody who has led our party previously,

probably deserves a little bit of respect from an incoming leader, but I am hopeful that on day one,

whoever becomes leader of the party, can put all that stuff aside and then focus on how we're bringing everybody in.

Well, in Tom Mulcare in 2015, had one of the best showings for the party ever, right?

Certainly did better than the progressive Jigmeet singing because Abel Lewis was kind of going after him for being too moderate,

essentially in our interview. What do you make of been taking shots at Mulcare? Maybe look at your thoughts on that.

It's true to form of who Abel Lewis seems to be. He is a very divisive person who is really focused, you know, at a time

you're about to win, the votes are pretty well done, they just need to be counted, like a little bit left to be done.

Why are you still attacking a former leader who, as you pointed out, was the second best showing,

and even if you didn't like Tom Mulcare, if you didn't like his leadership, and he's been very critical of the NDP himself,

but he's not engaged in politics like this anymore. But why would you do that?

There's still people who work very, very hard under Tom Mulcare, and you insult them all when you do that.

So I don't understand what he's doing. I don't understand, you know, we talked about the Western Premiers.

Look to their official opposition in Ontario and Nova Scotia as well.

Nova Scotia, massive defense spending, getting ramped up right now, could be very good for the province.

And here we have a guy who is anti-military, wants to defund the military. How's the NDP in Nova Scotia going to handle that?

They're going to have to answer for that.

I mean, the prime minister just poured $2 billion, I think, into Nova Scotia this week in your province, Greg.

Went over really well. Really well. I bet it's really well.

So talk of 1100 people in that room.

Many standing donations for Prime Minister Karni today around that 2% meeting of our NATO commitment that we talked around this table many, many, many times.

Many times.

I want to get your thoughts though on this idea that obvious Lewis will not commit to running in a by-election.

I asked him about that in our interview. There could be an opening, right?

In Beaches, these York, we know Nathaniel Erskinsmith is probably going to jump over to the provincial wing of the Liberal Party soon.

Maybe take a shot at becoming leader and potentially Premier, who knows?

But that's a key opening. That's a seat that the NDP has been competitive in the past.

Obviously, Lewis won't commit to going in there and taking on the Prime Minister in the House of Commons if he were to win that by-election.

Why do you think he's making that choice?

Well, and as Mel said, and just so that people might have missed it, I believe Tom Moucaire's advice was to get a seat as soon as possible.

Yes.

Well, let's talk about when that doesn't help you.

It took him a while to get a seat. That was not helpful.

Pierre Paulierf, huge hit to his leadership.

He had to go to Alberta to run.

The provincial Liberals in Ontario, Bonnie Crombie, it pretty much finished her leadership.

And I know that the calculation that people are making in the Ontario leadership is, do they have a seat in the legislature?

Because you really need to be in the media flow of the day.

And if you're not there, this is a big issue.

So as much as I'm low to say it, I don't think it's only Tom Moucaire's advice.

I think it's recent history is shown.

It's going to be better for you if you are actually a legislator, if you're actually in the mix.

So it's a very, very odd thing for him to say.

I don't get it.

Yeah. I mean, it's interesting choice.

And as you say, the recent track record of those who kind of shun that idea doesn't work out too well for them.

Alright, let's move on to our next topic.

As the NDP debates a full crackdown on fossil fuels this weekend, Ottawa and Alberta are moving ahead with their pipeline agreement.

At a slower place than planned, their first deadline of April 1st is five days away.

And just two of the four conditions have been met.

Today, Prime Minister Mark Carney says it's a work in progress that is worthwhile for the country.

Our strategy with Alberta has been to go right to the heart of the issue, which is the pipeline.

But what else comes with the pipeline, pathways, an actual carbon market that works, nuclear power, which you're also looking to build out.

So having everything on the table, rolling up your sleeves, working on it, that's the way to address it, you know, showing that the federation works.

And it has the benefit of, you know, it has a huge immediate payoff if you get it right.

And we're making good progress with Alberta's more to be done, but we're making very good progress.

Well, work continues on a new pipeline to the BC coast.

There are potential talks about reviving the pipeline to the US, the Keystone pipeline.

Those are opportunities. Those are cards in negotiation as well.

We know we've got trade challenges with the United States right now, and it's important that we find resolution to them.

So you do see Keystone XL as a card to play.

I absolutely do. I think we've also got to continue the work of diversifying markets.

We've got to continue to make sure that not so much of our exports go to the United States.

But I think we'd be foolish not to use such cards.

Mel, I'll start with you again, because I know all of the main contenders for the NDP leadership are essentially anti-oiling gas,

or at least they're calling for very aggressive decarbonization.

You heard, obviously, was there earlier in my interview.

He was vocal about the need to stop development.

This sets up a potential battle, right?

This is one issue where the Liberals and the NDP could really square off.

Totally. And the leadership contestants, but I'll say what's going on in both provinces, right?

We've heard a premier, EB, quite clearly say that this MOU has always been a little bit, you know, like a nice idea that's not actually based in anything,

because we don't have a partner that's willing to stand up and invest in building this,

and we know that that's what is needed to move us ahead.

And I think that's what we're seeing with deadlines being missed,

is it sounds like cumbersome Smith is saying that conversations are happening with different partners,

but there's nobody putting their hand up.

And one of the points that I take from premier EB, that are really important,

is by announcing this, the government put at risk the projects that are happening in British Columbia,

and the good thing about the projects that are happening in British Columbia are supported by government,

by First Nations, and also by industry.

So the ability to have all those three come together instead of the table is not easy,

and it's taken a lot of work for the BC government.

So putting that at risk for, you know, an idea that is not necessarily written on paper or fully baked yet is difficult.

So I think that's what you're hearing definitely from New Democrats in British Columbia.

As it relates to how leadership contestants are talking about it,

I think it's one thing to talk about in a leadership race,

and then another when you become leader, and you're having to see what you say and the impacts of those things,

how it relates to workers, how it relates to that Alberta, British Columbia context that I was just thinking talking about.

So it'll be interesting to see how this develops with whoever the new leader is on Sunday.

Brad, do you think both the Liberals and the Conservatives love the idea of the NDP talking about the carbonization,

ending oil and gas extraction, and downland backwards?

I don't think either party really cares what the NDP are saying right now.

They have six seats in the House of Commons.

I don't think they are, they're not punching through, they're not, they're not even in committees.

They're not there.

They're not part of the debate, and it's going to take them at the national level to get back.

Of course, they're in six of the seven largest provinces.

They're very strong provincially and government or official opposition.

So they have that wing if it hasn't completely, you know, destroyed that connection.

But it's, you know, at the national level, the Liberals or the NDP are here just, they're not in the conversation.

I mean, I guess they could use that to paint them a certain way, right?

If they're making, I mean, I'm thinking of Linda McQuade in the 2015 election.

This example always comes up when she was talking about, you know, we got to leave it in the ground.

If you remember this NDP candidate in the Toronto area, the Liberals and the Conservatives both pounced on that concept

and said, this is what you're going to get with the NDP, you know, radical, environmentalist, socialist.

Like, I can see some of these clips from this weekend being used in attack ads to comp.

Don't you think? Or is it just, they're irrelevant to you, they're irrelevant to get it?

As a conservative, we know the math, a better NDP helps split some votes and helps us win seats.

So there's no, I don't see why we would attack the Democratic Party and the Liberal Party at the same time.

They do have to protect, protect their progressive flank of it.

So they have to be cautious on how they do that.

Greg, we're talking about Keystone XL potentially being revived.

The pipeline to the Pacific, there's progress on this MOU with Alberta. Where do you think this goes?

Well, another piece of news this week was around Trans Mountain, the pipeline that the Prime Minister Justin Trudeau government purchased in 2018.

It was a year ago at 80% capacity right now for April and May, it's projected to be at 100% capacity.

And that is years ahead of schedule. Obviously, there's some world events affecting that.

So when an NDP candidate for leadership talks about getting rid of oil and gas, part of the problem is that there's never any details around the transition.

I always put a little bit of skepticism around Premier Smith.

It was a truism in politics in Canada for a very long time.

You can't go wrong by attacking Ottawa as a provincial premier.

But now, Mr. Carney is very popular. The Prime Minister, I saw a photo today of his meeting with Premier Houston at the aforementioned 1100 people attending Chamber of Commerce.

Today, he talked about the wind project of the Premier. So there, I think, to kind of shore up her base, Premier Smith sometimes needs to continue to pick a fight with Ottawa, whether it's about picking judges, whatever it is.

But she said that on Tuesday and on Wednesday, there was an agreement in principle around methane.

And the National Post reporting this week said that the next major point in that MOU is actually on Alberta.

And they have to provide a plan to get their pipeline. How would they get to water? And I think the deadline in that is July 1st.

So I do think it's always a good, it's good to look at what Premier Smith says and think about what other alternative agenda.

She has a challenge. The business community is not happy about the referendum. The specter of separatism and is not the clarity that the business community wants for investment.

Really interesting polling done, I think, by the Chamber of Commerce in Alberta.

I agree with you Chamber of Commerce on how that is really weighing on business sentiment in the province right now.

Okay, let's leave it there. One of the Liberal Party's newest MPs is apologizing after he appeared to question reports of human rights abuses in China.

It happened during a committee yesterday when he was an expert, was arguing against Chinese electric vehicles being sold in Canada.

You claim about four slaipers in China. Have you witnessed this yourself? Have you been there ever?

I've been to China many times. Have you witnessed it since 1979?

Have you witnessed forced, that's just a short answer. Have you witnessed forced labor in Xinjiang?

Yes or no?

I work mostly with human rights watch where researchers did witness it.

Thank you.

The statement issued hours after that exchange, Liberal MP Michael Ma said he condemns all forced labor, but said he was referring to the Chinese city of Xinjiang, not Xinjiang, where China has been accused of widespread abuses.

Let's bring in our party insiders for their take on. This one, Greg, what happened here?

We were talking a couple of weeks ago about caucus discipline and being critical of it, so different party, different approach.

The most positive thing I will say about this is the fact that this administration has learned to address things very, very quickly.

So Kate McKenna, CBC reporter was on this, but within the same media cycle, the apology was issued.

There was no waiting for a couple of days thinking you're going to ride this out and end it.

And I think that's a good sign. The other thing, when we watch that clip, and I'm sure that somebody from the host leaders office is saying this, when you're at committee, never ask a question.

That you don't already know the answer to or you suspect. And the individual that was testifying, I recall I think being a pretty sharp critic of the previous administration on social media.

But if you're familiar, you should know the biographies of the people who are appearing before committee.

The other thing I'll say is, if I'm the conservatives right now, you are throwing everything you can against the wall to see what sticks.

And the prime minister has high polling, huge popularity, and it's really tough.

So you're accusing probably reporters of not covering your boss is enough.

Do not give them something that they can jump on. This is where people really need to tighten up. And in the words of Scott Reed, who was our boss, when I was a decom in the Martin government, do no harm.

Fred, he says he was talking about Shenzhen, not Xinjiang, Xinjiang. Sorry, my pronunciation is probably off on that one.

It doesn't matter, but part of China he was referring to. He seems to be questioning whether forced labor exists at all in China.

We know there's report after report in this country and elsewhere that abuses have gone on, especially as it relates to the weaker Muslim minority.

He was trying to make the point that, well, maybe you don't know if that happened in this part of China.

Just the whole idea of questioning abuses in that country was perhaps not a great look, especially for a prime minister who was just in China to sign a deal on EVs and brought along this MP for the ride.

Look, I don't know why the Liberals recruited this guy.

Why'd you run him in the first place?

Look, it was also incredibly surreal to see a member of parliament go after a witness like that, regardless of who the witness is.

That type of questioning is just clearly he has a view that he's trying to ask through his questioning of the witness, which is just, I think, really out of step.

I don't know if this is a new view since he became a liberal in December. I don't know what his past views were on this issue.

Again, we didn't actually know who he was until he crossed the floor. It wasn't a very well-known MP being so new.

But it was all very strange, but to Greg's point, the fact that the Liberals tried to correct something quickly is a different shift that we were used to in the last decade in this town.

Let it fester for a week or so, and there's enough bleeding and then a way we made a mistake.

So not saying that the issue is done, he's still said he's done what he's doing.

If you think that was a tough questioning, you're not watching committee because your team, the last couple of months have been really, really terrible at committee.

That is nothing like some of the things that the conservatives have been throwing at witnesses and their fellow MPs.

Well, that was Ma's initial defense. He was saying, oh, I'm just copying the conservatives and how they questioned what...

Don't copy the question. I thought that was a fun.

And then they had to come up with the actual statement that maybe his hand was held by the prime minister's office as he was writing it.

Mel, what do you make of what went on at committee?

I'm laughing. I didn't know that Greg was such an optimist finding the silver lining in this story about the quick correction, but...

Good spin, eh?

Yeah. Thanks, Bill.

What I would say, yeah, any time, I've got you, bud, what I would say is if this was a standalone event, it would be one thing.

The fact that the government has pursued a close relationship with China without talking about the human rights abuses makes it a whole other event, right?

The fact that these questions were happening, you should be able to say, period, believe that human rights abuses are happening and period say that it's not, it's not okay.

And the fact that he was trying to defend China's practices instead of defending the work that the government was doing in pursuing a relationship, to me is already problematic,

but the fact that the prime minister hasn't necessarily talked about some of the questions that we have, whether it be human rights abuses, whether it be foreign interference,

or anything as a release to China, I think brings it to a different level.

It makes something that that could have, perhaps, passed to something completely different in its entirety.

And then, of course, there's the added drama with the fact that he was a conservative across the floor and became a liberal.

So, of course, people are going to want to take a closer look at him and maybe blow up a little bit more what he's saying, but I think all of those kind of...

All of that context makes this, makes this not good other than the fact that a quick apology came afterwards.

And I think you're probably right, JP, maybe helped with folks from the PMO.

Right, final word to you on this one.

Well, look, Pierre Paulier put out a tweet about this guy that was so negative and this is the cynicism.

You, this person ran for you.

So, I think that upsets people, but usually I think Mel is highlighted why this is of interest.

This is a person who recently crossed the floor.

Lesson Lewis has had a petition, I think.

I think it's a petition around leaving the UN for a long time.

And no one ever kind of talks about that to me, especially in light of world events.

But, you know, people usually consider a lot of these not worth the notice to deal with.

But I think, you know, perhaps because of he's a recent floor crosser is why I got the attention it did.

Fred Quick found that.

Well, I think if the fact that he was, it sounds like defending human rights abuses in China is why he got attention.

The media was all over this.

It wasn't the conservatives that jumped on this first.

It was media questioning him as he left committee as well.

Like, this is his own doing.

This is not a partisan thing.

Yeah, okay.

Let's see what they're there.

Thank you so much to the Friday political, Paul's panel.

Greg McEckron, Fred DeLory, Melanie Richet, nice to see you all.

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Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson, host of the Daily News podcast front burner.

I got this really cool note from a listener the other day.

They wrote, I find myself torn between the desire to understand the world around me

and the anxiety associated with the easily accessed barrage of terrible news.

And yet, amidst the torrent, there lies a sweet spot called front burner.

This is exactly why we make the show.

So you don't get swept away in a tide of overwhelming news.

So follow front burner wherever you get your podcasts.

As the war in the Middle East approaches its fifth week,

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says their goals will be achieved very soon.

As the Department of War has consistently outlined, we are on or ahead of schedule in that operation

and expect it concluded at the appropriate time here.

No matter of weeks, not months, and the progress is going very well.

Obviously, we have some work to do. We have to finish the job and we are finishing that job.

Rubio spoke to reporters after a meeting of G7 foreign ministers outside Paris,

stressing that after the US is done in Iran, the challenge will be for allies

to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

Rubio warned that Iran could set up an illegal toll for access to the Strait.

In the meantime, it's still shut down.

And one fifth of the world's oil supply can't get through.

Footage here shows emergency services operating after a strike

on a residential building in southern Tehran.

The US and Israel bombed several nuclear facilities and steel facilities today

and Iran continued to launch strikes across the Persian Gulf.

For more on this, I'm joined by Aaron David Miller,

senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

and a former Middle East negotiator. Nice to see you, sir. Thanks for coming on.

Thanks for having me.

So what do you make of what you just heard there from Marco Rubio saying

the US is ahead of schedule? He says the war is going well.

Is that how you see it?

Well, I have scheduled to do what?

The reality is that once the Iranians, and by the way, the Strait

are not closed, the Iranians permit a number of what they consider

to be, quote, unquote, non-hostile entities, tankers to get through.

Chinese oil, Indian oil.

But I think the objectives won't be accomplished at a minimum

until the Straits are opened.

There are only two ways to do that.

To negotiate it or to escalate on the military side in an effort to,

basically, cause the Iranian-sufficient pain that they will change

their calculation, which is that they think they're winning.

They may or may not be delusional and force the opening.

Frankly, every military guy I talk to and woman doesn't see this

as a practical alternative, particularly with only a low

thousands of combat forces.

It's a 400-mile coastline.

You'd have to suppress and repress Iranian drones, ballistic missiles,

and probably land US forces along that literal.

And you're talking, that's two million Iranians along that coastline.

So I think the drum administration is stuck, frankly,

and being given an enormous amount of damage to Iran's ballistic missile

inventory, their capacity to produce and store drones, command and control,

conventional military, but you don't have international crisis.

Unless the Straits are open on terms that the international community can accept,

and the Iranians, by the way, are already charging tolls.

That may well be a price that needs to be paid.

In fact, you end up with an negotiation to end the war.

But right now, JP, I see no end in sight.

And they keep talking about weeks.

It could easily go well beyond that.

You mentioned troops.

The Secretary of State said today that they are sticking to their guns on this.

They don't want to have to deploy any personnel into Iran.

There's clearly no desire to have boots on the ground.

Do you think that that's a viable path?

Like, can they really bring this conflict to a close successfully

without actually deploying any personnel?

Well, I don't think they can do it with 10,000 forces.

I think they're going to need a lot more than that.

If the plan is somehow as to force the opening of the Straits

and to ensure that the Iranians cannot deter tankers and escort vessels

by eliminating their capacity to use their short and long range ballistic missiles

and their drones and their fastboats,

that requires a lot of deployment along a long coastline.

I mean, could it come to that? It might,

but not with up to 10,000 forces.

You can need a lot more than that.

What do you make of Trump's public posturing?

Claiming that the talks are on with Iran,

even though Iran is kind of denying

that there's really anything going on between the two of them.

He says Iran is afraid to admit talks or underway

because they figure they'll get killed by their own people.

Do you think that this is all bluster?

Are there really talks underway to bring this conflict to a close?

I know it's kind of opaque, but do you suspect that there is some dialogue?

I think their message is being passed, phone calls being made,

maybe the Turks, the Pakistanis are functioning as intermediaries.

But given the Trump administration's record of negotiating,

deploying the president's best friend in his son-in-law,

Russia, Ukraine failed negotiation.

Israelis and Palestinians, implementation of phase one,

because it is a mess.

It's dysfunctional, it's divided, it's sporadically violent.

And now you have Steve Whitcock and Jared Kushner ending up

without much success in the negotiations in Oman and Geneva.

Look, you can't do this stuff on the back of the cocktail napkin.

You can't do it on a cell phone.

You really do need to get serious about this.

And you're going to have to do it directly with the Iranians.

That poses a problem on the Iranians side,

because I think there is a command and control problem.

The last report I saw was at Moschibah Hamani,

the son of the Bali Hamani, who was killed on February 28th.

He hasn't approved assuming he's not incapacitated

or in a Russian hospital, recovering from wounds.

And apparently, Pinak said that he was seriously wounded

and had to add the word disfigured, why I'm not sure.

I'm not sure that you have a sort of authority,

a legitimate authority that could sanction the kind of negotiations

that are required, let alone the concessions that need to be made

if these negotiations are going to reach an agreement.

So, color me skeptical on this.

We're going to be at this for weeks and weeks to come.

How would you assess the public's support for the war?

Because obviously, Trump has claimed that the Strait of Hormuz

doesn't really have much of an impact on Americans

because they don't get much oil from there.

But we know we've seen gas prices go out quite a bit

where you are stateside going over $4 a gallon

in some places across the country.

Do you think that public opinion weighs on Trump at all

as he considers how to prosecute this war?

Yeah, California, it's $5 a gallon.

Look, yeah, sure.

But the presidency, unlike the Supreme Court and the US Congress,

which goes in and out of session,

the presidency, even in normal times, is a 24-7 operation.

The Constitution gives the president an enormously way

to conduct foreign policy.

So, unless you see severe public protests,

pressure on representatives to somehow end the war,

I think the president has weeks more at his own discretion

to decide what he wants to do because they want to escalate.

Or is he thinking about the possibility

of declaring victory, assuming the Iranians,

if the president decided to stand down

would let him out of this war?

If I know mean certain,

they want to impose severe costs

for what the US and the Israelis have done.

So, Michael Rubio may say two weeks,

the president said 46 weeks,

but it's now March 27th.

Yeah.

I guess that's right.

I mean, I'd be stunned if you and I aren't having

the same conversation a month from now.

Yeah, there were reports today

that the president is bored with the war.

I don't know if he saw those headlines.

And he wants to move on from this.

I mean, what does that tell you?

Tell me that Donald Trump is interested in,

let me put it this way,

Donald Trump has conflated his own personal prejudices,

his instincts, his boredom,

or not boredom with the national interest.

And I think that's a very dangerous conflation.

He is not a normal president.

And we do not have a normal decision-making process.

The Secretary of State, I work for half a dozen,

should be managing this process,

not the president's best friend in the Sun law.

And there should be serious efforts

to create either a military pathway out of this.

And Sen Com and U.S. military extraordinarily competent.

They'll do what they're told.

I worry a lot about the political judgment

of the people who were in charge.

Well, let's see what they are.

Aaron David Miller, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment

for International Peace.

Nice to see you, sir.

Thanks for coming on.

And thanks for having me, J.V.

That's it for today.

If you like this episode, please follow the pod

and catch our next live show on CBC News Network.

We're on weekdays at 5 p.m. Eastern.

I'm J.V. Tansker.

Thanks for listening.

For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.