Will the U.S. or Iran Decide When the War Ends?

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President Trump promises a quick end to the Iran War as Iran pledges to fight on.

Plus, why Americans aren't likely to see pricier natural gas,

even if the rest of the world is?

All things being equal, the American consumer should be pretty well insulated

from the shock unlike folks in Europe and Asia.

And the rest of the day's news as Chinese exports blow past

analysts forecast and the NASDAQ embraces tokenized trading.

It's Tuesday, March 10th. I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal,

and here is the AM edition of What's News,

the top headlines and business stories moving our world today.

President Trump says he is looking for a quick end to the war in Iran,

saying it will be over very soon.

After some of his advisors privately urged him to look for an exit plan,

a mid-rising energy prices and concerns that an extended conflict

could spark political backlash.

We report that Trump has been briefed on some polling about the war

and that some in his inner circle have fielded calls about the midterm elections

from nervous Republicans.

White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt denied that report,

saying it was full of crap that Trump's aides were focused on ensuring

that the war is a tremendous success, and that Trump will be the one

to decide when it's over.

Here he was at a press conference yesterday evening in Florida.

Mr. President, you said the war is, quote, very complete,

but your defense secretary says this is just the beginning,

so which is it and how long should Americans be doing?

Well, I think you could say it both.

At the beginning, it's the beginning of building a new country.

We could call it a tremendous success right now,

as we leave here, I could call it, or we could go further.

And we're going to go further.

Journal of Middle East correspondent Jared Mauson told me that whether the war ends very soon

or is just beginning is partly in Iran's hands.

Well, the Iranians have said essentially that they will decide when the war is over

with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps saying yesterday that they would be the ones

to decide when, for example, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,

which at the moment is at the center of the crisis around Iran

and very likely has something to do with why Trump said what he said yesterday.

One-fifth of the world's oil passes through the Strait

and right now it's all but closed due to Iranian attacks and threats.

Even if the administration decides to stop bombing, they would face the challenge.

Number one of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing pressure on oil markets

and more generally of easing the security threat from Iran across the region.

And they're going to be reckoning with a region that's really been transformed by this.

If they decide to stop bombing in the coming days, for example,

the Iranian regime would still be in place.

It would have survived the military offensive.

And from the Iranian's perspective, they have a lot of incentive

to continue to use the leverage they have over energy markets

to try to ensure their own survival.

Because Trump began this war by saying that he wanted to change the Iranian regime.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been consistent in saying that that's what he wants.

That's something that he reiterated this morning.

And so that's how the Iranian regime is going to view the conflict as a fight for their survival.

While another potential factor in the war's trajectory is the state of global energy markets,

we spoke yesterday about the big run-up and pullback in oil prices,

which remain around $90 a barrel this morning.

But for much of the world, natural gas prices are being just as closely watched.

And it's clear why.

Because while US prices are actually down on the year,

they remain considerably higher in Europe even after double-digit declines today.

As I discussed with reporter Ryan Dezember,

there's a reason gas is responding differently to global volatility than oil

and why Americans are likely to be spared some of the pain of higher prices seen elsewhere.

Well, after the US and Israel started bombing Iran,

the straight of her moves became sort of a no-go zone for ships carrying oil,

as we know, but also liquefied natural gas from the Persian Gulf.

That's about 20% of the world's supply.

So what we saw was international natural gas prices surge.

While in the US, they rose, but by a relatively small amount last week,

benchmarked futures in the US rose 11%.

And that compares with more than 50% over in Europe.

So we see this big gap where America's domestic supply is sort of cushioning the blow from this.

Yeah, explain that more.

What's responsible for sort of insulating America here?

So in the US, we have a few things going.

Of course, we have record production lately,

despite the big storms that cause some record sort of weekly drawdowns and supply back in January.

We're ending the winter about on target with like the five-year average.

So amply supplied going into spring when those stockpiles grow ahead of summer.

And then of course, we have a big booming LNG export business in the US.

But it's pretty much maxed out right now.

There's not really capacity to send much more volume overseas than exporters already are.

And so you're not going to see a huge surge in prices probably

because you can't really extract more from the domestic market to send overseas

until the next LNG terminals open.

So a foreign buyer that is desperate for supply can't bid this away from American consumers quite so easily.

As maybe we see in crude, is that the way to think of it?

Yeah, and really what's happening is they're bidding against each other.

So the boats that do go out, we're seeing some movement where they may be destined for say Europe

and someone in Asia buys them instead.

More than 90% of the LNG that comes out of the Persian Gulf goes to Asia.

So you're going to see prices bidding up for any available car ghosts to go that way

as opposed to other places in the world right now.

This all sounds like good news for American consumers,

particularly their home heating bills.

What are the other sort of end user effects of this?

Yeah, and what you'll see is, you know, manufacturers use a lot of natural gas.

We sell big disruptions during the major freeze-off in late January in the US.

To the point the factories and stuff were getting curtailed, not getting any gas,

having to go to the spot market and pay 10, 20 times the normal price for their natural gas.

You're going to see that reflected in stock prices and a benefit to them relative to overseas competitors.

An example we had a few weeks ago was international paper, the big cardboard box maker.

They estimate something more than $40 million hit to their bottom line from the big price spike.

So if US businesses in the US natural gas market can avoid that,

that's going to trickle down not only to our power and natural gas bills at home,

but also to the companies that make basic products from steel and cardboard boxes,

of course, all the way to things like toothpaste and drywall.

The million dollar question, Ryan, is can the US energy industry and US manufacturers win here

and the US consumer win at the same time?

Because in some ways the consumer is the one more at risk now of the oil shock.

Yeah, I mean, it'll be a benefit, right?

Summer's closer than we would do we think and will be a crank in our air conditioner.

In that sense, Americans are going to want to see that natural gas inventory stay robust,

see a lot of gas going into it.

We have seen the price go up at a time of year when you'd expect to see the price going down

because our heaters aren't running all day long.

But all things being equal, the American consumer should be pretty well insulated

from the shock unlike folks in Europe and Asia.

I've been speaking to Wall Street Journal reporter Ryan, December Ryan.

Thank you as always for the update. Thank you.

And we want to know how volatile energy and commodity prices are affecting you and your business.

What do they mean for your plans today next week or later in the year?

Is your bottom line being impacted?

And what about your pricing strategy?

Let us know by sending a voice note to WNPOD at WSJ.com

or leave us a voice mail at 2124164328.

Either way, just make sure to include your name and your location

so we can use your comments on the show.

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China's exports have soared in the first two months of the year,

rising more than 20% compared to a year earlier,

highlighting a continued reliance on overseas demand.

Exports to Southeast Asia and Europe were both more than 25% higher year on year,

while exports to the US fell 11%.

Meanwhile, shares of CATL surged in Asian trading today

after the world's largest EV battery maker reported profit growth of 42% for last year.

The Tesla supplier cruised past expectations

in spite of higher lithium prices and cooling EV demand in China.

And NASDAQ says it will work with crypto exchange Kraken and issuing companies

in developing a plan to offer tokenized stocks on its exchange by early next year.

The tie-up will allow people around the world to buy and sell digital versions

of American stocks 24-7, not just during US business hours.

Markets reporter Alexander Osipovich says it shows how digital assets

are becoming a greater part of traditional investing.

So far, many of the companies that are doing tokenized equities

are cryptocurrency companies that are startups that are a few years old

and had a number of scrapes with the regulators.

And NASDAQ is a very established exchange.

It is the place where Apple and Tesla stock is listed

and they are proposing to do tokenized equities in a way

where it would work more seamlessly with existing systems.

For example, one problem right now with some of the versions of tokenized stocks out there

is you can actually vote your shares.

Theory being a shareholder means you get a chance to vote in shareholder votes

and the tokens don't let you do that.

So that's one of the problems that NASDAQ would solve.

Canada and the UK are backing away from proposed social media crackdowns.

Canada has formally reversed its order to shut down ticktocks domestic unit,

allowing the app to operate under new data and child safety conditions.

Similarly, UK lawmakers have rejected an Australian style blanket ban on social media

for those under 16, opting instead for more flexible restrictions

to prevent children from accessing unregulated parts of the web.

And if you're flying through US airports this week,

you might want to arrive earlier than originally planned.

The ongoing partial government shutdown is triggering long security delays

with travelers advised to arrive four hours early.

One passenger in New Orleans told WWLTV about the scene yesterday at the city's airport.

I was here three weeks ago during Mardi Gras and it was no problem.

This is insane.

TSA officers are set to miss their first full paychecks this week,

fueling staffing shortages just as the spring break travel rush begins.

The Department of Homeland Security has remained largely shut since February 14th,

amid a funding deadlock in the Senate.

And that's it for what's news for this Tuesday morning.

Today's show was produced by Hadi Moyer and Daniel Bach.

Our supervising producer is Sandra Killhoff and I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal.

We will be back tonight with a new show.

Until then, thanks for listening.

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