Winter Storm Fern Flops, ERCOT Grid Survives & IEA's $15 Trillion Oil Mistake | BDE 01.29.26

Winter Storm Fern exposed the grid's contradictions, New England burned 40% oil for power while sitting 300 miles from the Marcellus Shale, ERCOT's batteries sat idle during $2,000/MWh spikes, and solar panels disappeared under snow. Meanwhile, the IEA quietly restored their realistic demand forecasts after five years of transition fantasy, revealing a $15 trillion underinvestment hole. Toby Rice reminded everyone what actual energy leadership looks like by getting wells back online in a hard hat instead of pontificating from Davos.

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You're Not Getting Another Corporate Job (Here's the Bypass) | Unrigged 001
https://youtu.be/l9Afd5ZsoFw?si=Gu8-y7S-S0MxfpJl

00:00 - Grading Winter Storm Fern's impact across regions
00:27 - Texas holds steady while Tennessee takes the hit
01:30 - Ice driving disasters make great Instagram content
03:26 - Trucks on ice: the overconfidence problem
04:33 - Casino trips and Livingston's reputation
05:27 - New England burns 40% oil during peak demand
06:25 - Marcellus Shale produces 28 BCF/day but can't reach Boston
07:40 - The hypocrisy of Massachusetts energy lectures
09:29 - Still importing LNG into Boston after 22 years
10:28 - Tennessee outages hit harder than expected
12:00 - Why batteries didn't discharge during price spikes
14:16 - Cold weather physics limits battery performance
16:05 - ERCOT as the world's biggest Rube Goldberg machine
17:32 - Tax subsidies create grid dysfunction
18:16 - Snow coverage kills solar instantly
19:22 - 95 gigawatts of renewables vs 85 gigawatt peak demand
20:27 - ERCOT's unique generation philosophy
21:37 - 10 BCF/day of gas production offline from freeze
22:47 - Toby Rice gets wells back online in the field
23:39 - IEA's five-year detour from reality
26:14 - $15 trillion underinvestment hole in upstream spending
27:58 - Shale revolution changed exploration economics
30:27 - Exploration skills at historically low capacity
32:05 - Why supermajors can't compete in unconventional
33:28 - Shell's struggles in Argentina and Eagle Ford
35:13 - Nothing cures prices like prices
36:32 - Europe's transition policies cause real damage
38:28 - IEA leadership needs radical overhaul
39:42 - Software sales and oil company workflows
41:27 - Corvette shopping and career transitions

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