WTA Bogota & Charleston Open Predictions: Badosa-Day, Sherif-Stearns odds, best bets, previews

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Hello everybody welcome on it's a new week here on Betting Weekly WTH your number one tennis betting podcast and YouTube show brought to you an association with Betrivers. I'm your host Nigel Ceeley. Before introducing to Tim Dennis our senior WTA handicapper please hit the subscribe button very important say everything was top of every show and we need some more subscribers we need to join us and the more you hit the subscribe button enjoy our content like our content the more shows we can do for you we have to tell us this week to go through we have a 500 in Charles

Town and we have a 250 in Bogota we have some matches for the next couple of days and Tim has found four of them for us and a host of Bet as well good morning Tim Dennis how are you good morning Nigel yeah very well thank you how about yourself feel good. Yeah not bad make not bad looking forward to I tell you I love this time of year I love it when the clock's changed and springs in the air and when the Monte Carlo tennis comes up I feel like the summer just round the corner it's like one of my favorite parts of this of the tennis season so I know it's not the best

tennis at all it's this week but it tends to be good times ahead doesn't it yeah me too obviously it's not not quite Europe yet but I'm the

similarity I love this sort of time of year as well and soon enough we'll have this sort of European clay swing and

before you know it'll be moving into sort of run on Garros and then after that we've got Wimbledon and

Grasco tennis and yeah the sort of British summer time is it's the best time of year I think for us as

Brits anyway and we're sort of swinging through that stage of the season now yeah I'm looking

forward to that we'll have you covered here on the betting week you should as well as well as that

as a little thing going on called the World Cup this summer as well which I'm working out that I'm

doing the road to as we speak now it's an absolute this as a minefield with the tennis as well

women so it's going to be a crazy couple of months the sport and actually never slows down

in the world of betting but let's move on to the big things we have to cook then that doesn't

matter matter if I bet the winner of the World Cup bet Wimbledon or you bet the winner of the

first round at Charlestown it all pays the same doesn't it so we have a couple of matches in Charlestown

to talk about today are these matches aren't scheduled for today they're scheduled for the next

couple of days we're better of us you'll need to check out the order of play and make sure you head

across there and download the up to see all the latest odds as well Tim we touched on the condition

yesterday on the preview show someone hasn't many people haven't watched the preview show it's

going to be pretty hot pretty good perfect tennis in Charlestown but it's both it weather for tennis in

Charleston yeah absolutely these all these all four of these matches we're going to look at their

schedules to take place on Tuesday we haven't got official order of plays or anything like that just

yet so keep an eye on that but yeah all these matches are going to be on Tuesday as far as Charleston

goes yeah sunny sunny for for Tuesday conditions in the low 70s maybe just creeping up to sort of

the mid 70s but yeah perfect conditions for tennis and as we mentioned before obviously these

these are clay courts but I think they play on the sort of the green clay of Charleston here and not

sort of your traditional European clay a little bit quicker than that but as yeah conditions go

a little bit on the quicker side as the clay courts go but perfect weather conditions in them

and in no issues whatsoever here in Charleston let's go straight into the bets and our first

match sees Paola Badossa the Spanish player formal world number two now dropped to just outside top

120 I think she's 113 the world ranking now a stagger in full from grace there for Paola Badossa

since she coincide in since she met Stephanie not sits to pass look at his career he's outside

the top 50 other leave as well so a real real demise in her form but she's still an overwhelming

favor which is minus 526 to win this match this might be ranked outside the top 100 obviously

suffered with injuries as well she's having a Carla day a American player been around a bit she's

not young so there's just 25 26 years of age but day is plus 330 spread here is five and a half

and total is 19 and a half there just set spreading there just set spread the one thing I'm looking at

this I mean given the form of Paola Badossa I definitely wouldn't be betting her at minus 560

and especially given up a five and a half game start I can't remember the last time she would

have covered that five and a half game start if you look at a hard court record this season it's

been seven wins from eight losses that's her career that's a year form as well this is a first

match on clay and she's up against an opponent is already played two matches to qualify here and

had a big win in qualification as well in the last round as well hasn't dropped the set so this

has definitely got potential upset here but which is the best way where's the best way to go we're

going to be braving on the money line are we looking for spreads or total I mean there's a lot of

variables here but which is the your your thought process yeah I think as you can probably guess

we're not going to be betting Badossa at minus 526 that's for certain she sits down at one on her

113 now like you mentioned after sort of getting dismantled by Eva Jovic 6261 in Miami last week

where she was she was really poor I think she had a reasonable victory in her first round match

there but I watched that first round match I think it was against one of her counterparts and

she was she was pretty much given the game really she I thought I was I was very unimpressed with

Badossa and I wasn't surprised to see what Jovic did to her in that in that next round there

she's had losses this year to players ranked 111 and 140 and she's only beaten one top 50 player

this year and that was Cinear covering Dubai so you can kind of see the sort of devil of tennis

she's playing and the only time she's won back-to-back matches so far this year as when she's

dropped down to challenger level when that came in Austin a couple of last month actually

as far as day goes she's won five of her last six matches and all five of those wins have come

in straight sets against a reasonable level opponent as well she's won two ITF titles so far this

year already one in France and one in Orlando and she beat friend Jones in Indian Wells and then

she faced Egas Frianteck in her next round and she actually lost the first set there six love

which is quite a few players can actually do to Ega and Indian Wells but she was excellent in set two

she only lost that set narrowly in her in a second set tie break 7-6 but she actually led that

set 5-1 so she might have been a little bit disappointed to not take that set to take that match

to a third set but taking Egas Frianteck to a second set tie break just shows you the kind of

tennis she is capable of playing as you mentioned she's had two qualifying matches here so far

I think she's just the seven games across those two matches in those two straight set wins and

these two players are coming here it's sort of completely different levels of respect from

as far as confidence goes but also obviously in a bit of a slump not being able to win two matches

in a row and Kyla Day already attuned to conditions here and I think that's going to stand

her in good stead the bet I did like was it was a prop bet Nigel you can bet Caleb Day over seven

and a half total games at minus one two five I thought that was probably looked a reasonable

a way to go I did sort of look at the handicaps or maybe data winner set but I thought I thought

the strongest way to get with it was over seven and a half games at minus one two five the tennis

I've seen Badosa play so far this year is is littered with with errors there is some good stuff

still amongst it but it's a few and far between and I'd be I'd be very surprised if Badosa gets

this done sort of cleanly sort of six three six three I certainly give give their chance here

if you want to be a little bit brave and get with her on the set spread perhaps I won't put you

off that but I thought the best way to get whether was the with the total player games at over seven

a half I think it looks a brilliant trading match I can't believe for one minute that

Kyla Day won't be shorter than plus three thirty at some stage in this match given the way

that Badosa is her confidence levels a fitness levels are questionable as well I think there's

a really good trading match and if you do have a bet with bet rivers you play Tim's

seduction there will you play any of these markets he'll be able to live stream the match as well

so you'll be able to watch the in and outs it will be all over the place I think this match I think

there'll be a lot of breaks a lot of situations where the odds are fluctuating very quickly

bit classic in play WTA tennis I feel this one will be and Kyla Day is definitely the way to go in

terms of the props the out one if he's brave just have a little little nibble bit of pizza money

on her on the outright market out plus three thirty let's move on to our second match is a lot

better look more closer in terms of the betting in this one it's Pellina could a meta but I

began to call it Zandrop Oliyanochkoffo is that as well I just Oliyanochkova as I do it I can

I can never pronounce you can pretend it's wrong a difficult one I'm going to go why didn't you

just choose Jones or something like that we saw Jesus Oliyanochkova Oliyanochkova I think sounds

pretty good no I think that's that's good enough for me it's good enough for you but yeah coach I

just I just look I would look for games that were Jones to me brown when I see Oliyanochkova I

think I'll leave that one but this is a picker match it's minus one fifteen to pair total here

is twenty one and a half the odds are pretty much is that what they are exactly the same on the spreads

as well as set betting sets spreads they you can see it's a picker match a better of his can't

split them I can't pronounce them hopefully Tim you can do better than me there is one record

headhead record before Oliyanochkova won it six three this year in Antalya in the first round

so she's got the she's got the headhead record there already this year and she's about 80 spots higher

than her opponent in the world rankings and yet she's a picker match yeah Oliyanochkova won that

first match that was over three sets and despite it being a a victory for her I think the service

points one with ten points one toes were extremely close there Oliyanochkova led them 101 to 99

but she hasn't actually played since the eighth of March since she played a similar event

in in Antalya in Turkey as well could have been played at the same event but she's had to come

here a little bit earlier because she's had to play two qualifying rounds and I think that'll

be in a little bit of an advantage she she won her first match in two weeks with a little bit

of a rusty three set win but she was a lot more clinically in her second qualifying match with

a comfortable straight sets victory against a better quality of opponents and I think she

upped her first serve percentage and her first serve point one percentage in that second match so

hopefully she sort of knocked a little bit of the rust off there for kudumatova I think it's a

little bit interesting that in their last head to head on in a kova also hadn't played for

any three weeks and it was kudumatova who started much the best she took that first set six one in

that initial head to head they've had and I think in six of her last eight matches kudumatova has

actually taken the first set so she does prove to be a little bit of a quick starter and I think

on in the kova is it is a little bit more of the opposite there and I think looking at this match

I think the odds are probably about right I do expect a very competitive game that could be a

little bit swingy at times it wouldn't surprise me if this one went the distance but I think

I do expect kudumatova to start fast here having had those two games under our belt on in

kova coming here after nearly a three week break without a match and with kudumatova being

attuned for his conditions having won that first set in the first game they played and

yeah on in a kova probably being a little bit rusty here is what I'm hoping for I think kudumatova

to win the first set is a minus one ten chance with bet rivers and I think that looks looks the best

bet to me in this match again I won't be surprised if I mean over two and a half sets there at

plus one forty three I probably wouldn't put anybody off that but the best bet on the on the card

to me for for these two in this matches is kudumatova to win that first set with her being attuned

to these conditions already and perhaps it taking on in kova a little bit of time to get used

to them that's what I'm seeing here. Is that an official play? Yeah it will be an official play

yeah I think obviously minus one fifteen at picking on the money line but you can get you can get

minus one ten on kudumatova to win the first set and I think that looks I think that looks

the best way to go here looking at their previous heads ahead and sort of the tennis on in kova has

been playing and she looks to warm into tournaments rather than comes out firing I think kudumatova

is the opposite of that she seems to start fast and the fact she had too much is under a belt

already I think swings this one in her favor as far as the first set goes.

Two matches so far in Charlestown two official plays our final match will we have another official

play it's the match involving Payton Sterns and Mayor Sheriff Payton Sterns is minus two thirds

he sheriff is plus one eighty spread here is three and a half total is twenty one and a half

it seems a little bit odd to see Mayor Sheriff at plus one eighty on a clay court but obviously

this is a quick American clay court it's not like the the heavy European clay here they have

met once before though and it was on clay and surprisingly it was in Morocco and sheriff started

that match at minus three dollars in the final she was minus three dollars to win that match and

Payton Sterns blitzer six two six one so Payton Sterns has got the the edge over Mayor Sheriff

on a clay court and that rivers have seen that result and taken into notice and fact of that and

it's been fact into this prize because Payton Sterns is nowhere near the plus two seventy five she

was that they she's minus two thirty and Mayor Sheriff is plus one eighty I think this is

to do with the the quick Americans clay court compared to the the slower European and and what

so Mayor Sheriff would be a lot more comfortable yeah you make a good point there regarding conditions

I think having beat now on a clay court in Morocco I think this clay court should play to Sterns

is Sterns is weapons even more than it should sure if I think it would disadvantage sheriff and

fact advantage Sterns think that head to head back in 2024 on Morocco in Morocco on much slower clay

Sterns dominated that six two six one I think she led the service points one of return points total

119 to 81 so a very dominant victory I think she wants 65% of her first serve points and a massive

75% of her second serve points not often you see see that too often if you compare that to just

52% for sheriff on first serve and 36% on the second it was it was a very dominant performance by

Sterns and I actually think this court should suit her more even more than that court in Morocco did

she didn't lose serve in that match she held serve eight times out of eight I've been quite

impressed with Sterns lately she was just starting to find her best form after a little bit of a

slow start of the season she obviously won the title there in Austin being Taylor Townsend in

the final and I think her most recent match in Miami she lost two close sets to juggling

Christian which is which is no disgrace she lost here in the first round last year but I'm not

going to let that put me off because she also lost in the first round in Austin there before going

on to take the title so sometimes that would be a little bit of an issue but but I'm not overly

concerned about that my share has been playing at most of her tennis at challenger level and she

actually hasn't won a main level tour match since Miami last year so so over 12 months now you

looking at since Murray Sheriff is one of a main level tour match so I think on this this court

in these conditions that they'll suit her more than I think even that final they played in Morocco

and perhaps disadvantaged sheriff I thought Sterns are you can probably eke out a touch more value

here you can bet Sterns at minus one and a half sets at plus 110 obviously she's she's plus 108 to

win in straight sets there but yes you can get plus 110 minus one and a half sets with bet rivers

which is essentially the same betting and I think that looks a pretty decent bet to me at plus

money I think these sheriff has been playing at a much lower level of late than Sterns and Sterns

should be coming here playing the better tennis on home court in home conditions and I see a straight

set comfortable victory for here and I think plus money as well we're taking

gonna be a tough afternoon for Mayor Sheriff Sterns to shoot the sheriff down is the bet from

Tim there so three bets it over in Charlestown now we move over to Bogota now I think the thing we

got a star of in Bogota here is is the weather I mean it's it I don't know how they can complete

this order if the weather forecast I'm looking at looks it is exactly it will rain every day for the

next seven or eight days thunderstorms lightning it doesn't look good if you got a ticket for and

it's cold doesn't look good at all in Bogota yeah as we mentioned in our preview show I think players

might be on and off the court I think they managed to get most of it done yesterday so they're

hoping for more the same tomorrow but as far as conditions go it looks to be sort of in the low

sixties there so cool like you say and there's gonna be a good chance of thunderstorms there tomorrow

so there might be sort of interruptions to this card so just just keep an eye on that with your

bets but they could well be on and off the court with rain interruptions here but yeah a rango

and Carlos is there's one match in Bogota we're going to have a look at yeah it's a battle between

two South Americans a rango the Colombian in our home tournament a Carly the Argentinian is the

dog here at plus one fifty a bet rivers make a rango minus one ninety five she needs it slow as

possible she loves it really slow this is a slow court three and a half is the spread total here

is twenty and a half this will be a grind if we look at the record between the two of them they

have met four times previously so we've got a lot to go on here two meetings in 2025 one in

meridia or both sorry one in both in meridia what that was a week they both come through

qualification in meridia a rango won it and then they were drawing the first round as well

I've never seen that before have you seen that before yeah no I was just looking at this morning

actually thinking that was quite unusual they they met in the I think they met in qualifying

and then Carla got in as a lucky loser so then they then met in the first round as well

so yeah very very strange circumstances to play twice in the same week in the same tournament

it's a but um but yeah a rango one of both as well yeah I mean a rango she's a very

strange player as far as where she sort of plays in the world seems to make a real difference

to her tennis and we'll talk about that in a minute both of a rango's wins as I mentioned

they're coming at the same tournament in in meridia also here both players certainly struggling

to perform a rango's has won only two of her last 15 matches and I think one of those we're

actually better in to be potter povers as a plus 300 chance in her favorite meridia I think she

before she retired against Maria Buzcola in her next match um Carla is much the same she's won

just two of her last nine matches and she's lost the last four so so confidence levels were both

of these players are are going to be pretty low on the ground here um or as I mentioned

over the rango all of her best tennis seems to come in mexico for whatever reason that maybe

she's won 21 of her last 26 matches in mexico yet she's won just six of her past 33

elsewhere around the world which is a really strange statistic including losses in the first

round here last year as a minus 250 chance when she was actually seeded number four to to win the

tournament um and away from her next favorite mexico carlos won both of these heads ahead and I

just think a plus 150 chance carl is probably a little bit too big i mean it seems strange to say

if this was played in mexico i i think those odds are probably about right but the fact that it

even it's played in her anger's sort of hometown and home tournament i almost see that as almost

being a perhaps a little bit of a negative as i said she lost the first round match here last year

and for whatever reasons she just does seem to play all of her best tennis in mexico so i think

away from mexico it probably is only going to be a lean because i'm not overly enthused by sort of

carlos for me there but i think plus 150 you've oh you i'll put it this well i think you'd be very

brave to bet a rango at minus 195 you've been very brave to bet both so i think you're very brave

to call this one the other way i mean both of them with shocking form look at this i'm going to

form carlos isn't one one of any of her matches on clay this year play three lost three

a rango's only one one match out of eight uh it's only nine she's been nine matches one one

both of them before i think you've got to take the dog when they're bow that form again this

would be another but i it's a bit turgid affair when it'd be awful but it'll be uh it'll be quite

interesting in terms of wta betting there'll be a war of attrition that's for sure in what it's

going to be very very testing conditions and i think that's going to suit both of these players

i think they're going to both like it but they're both struggling for some kind of form this could

be a real a very topsy-turvy match we're trading could be the way they go and you'd be able to

follow the match if you download the bet rivers app and you'll have all the markets available in

these matches one not just these matches on screen there is about 45 different markets on every

single one of the tennis matches offering across the wta and the a to b tour this week it's all

going to be a to b tour i'll be back tomorrow on betting week the game bet match we should

cover looking at all the match on three tours this week busy week of tennis across the world and

we'll have you covered on Tuesday on Wednesday on betting week the game bet match the boys are back

on betting weekly live today 11 o'clock eastern time a m show and at four p m the p m show with

Mike and Doug daily doubles what means smashed out of the part last week and Tim gave two when

the daily doubles so well done Tim when you was on their last week as well congratulations on your

daily doubles if you have followed the tips in the show we're slightly behind we're minus two units

but as you know the only tells half the story of so many bets that we've had winners tips that

haven't been on the figures because there's no odds at the time which have been unfortunate

anyway Tim have a good day enjoy it the rest of your day enjoy it the spring sunshine there's

three bets four matches there before i leave you go and no Tim just give us a recap of your bets

your official place for tomorrow in the wta action yeah official but i think we'll just leave

the match we just spoke about as a little bit of a link so i think it's going to be extremely

chaffee but um in that first match khala day against pala badosa uh khala day over seven and a half

player games at minus one two five with bet rivers in the kuda motova on in on in kova match

polina kuda motova to win the first set at minus one ten and our final official play comes

in the paint and stones versus my sheriff game and that is paint and stones minus one and a half

sets of plus one ten some nice action there three matches again evolving to make sure you check

the order play out and you can live stream those matches as well on the bet rivers app

having a day we'll speak to you tomorrow on bed and weekly game bet match enjoy the rest of your

afternoon hopefully cash them tickets as well take care goodbye thanks for listening to bedding

weekly wta on the bet rivers network