WTA Indian Wells Round of 32 Predictions: Odds, Trends for Osaka-Osorio, Sabalenka-Cristian, Noskova-Cirstea

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You're listening to Betting Weekly WTA on the Betrivers Network.

Welcome to Betting Weekly WTA in association with Betrivers.

As you may know, Nigel Ceeley is stuck in Dubai and we wish him well.

But I'm back, Rory Jawani here stepping in and with me of course, our WTA handicap at Tim Dennis.

Tim, how are you?

Hi Rory, good to see you.

Yeah, long time no seeing all that, but yeah, very well.

Thank you. How about yourself, you well?

Not too bad.

Yeah, it's a bit busy, but yeah, getting slowly back into the swing of things with tennis.

It's the first leg with a sunshine double of course at Indian Wells and that's in full swing.

Then we'll have Miami and then we're into the European play court season.

But we're going to look at Indian Wells, going to concentrate on that.

We're going to look at some of the matches in the round of 32 taking place on Sunday.

Tim, how is the tournament for you going so far?

I think you and Nigel were both keen on Clara Towson before it.

Yeah, Nigel and Nigel and myself were actually just a quick word on Nigel.

We're all being well.

We've had a bit of news.

Hopefully he might well be on a flight today out of Dubai.

So all being well, fantastic.

Nigel hopefully is on the way back to Tableti and hopefully I'll be back in the UK safe soon enough.

I think it's been a pretty stressful time for him lately as you can understand.

Nigel and I did the preview show early in the week on Tuesday for this tournament.

We were both quite keen on Clara Towson and she started well yesterday.

She beat Julia Putin-Saver in straight sets, quite a long first set tie break.

But she came through the second set comfortably and I think also on her side of the jaw,

I think Tyler Gibson beat Alex Androva.

So that's a seed gone or we spoke about Alex Androva being out of form.

So that's route through is a little bit easy now.

She and I play Tyler Gibson instead of Catherine Alex Androva.

So hopefully she should be coming through that match.

She'll be a heavy minus money failure to do so.

So if she can keep progressing and going as we hope she might.

And I think her outright price now will certainly be shorter than what we put her up.

I think we expected it to be.

I was hoping for about 50 to one.

I think she was sort of plus 4500.

So a little bit shorter, but a decent offer there a bit really.

So hopefully she can keep going just keeping on the conditions.

We spoke about also on a preview show that you need to keep an eye on scheduling

with these matches.

Obviously it's playing quicker during the day than it is at night being in the desert.

There's been a few days where it's been quite blustery there.

Some windy conditions.

So just to keep an eye out for that, I think Sundays meant to be set a little bit fair

with I think conditions are in the low 80s and sunny.

So so hopefully it should be should be good for tennis.

I think also to mention on the conditions that they're slightly quicker than they have

been in in previous years.

I think the court-paced index is showing that, but I think that's probably down

to the change of balls this year.

They're using done not balls there instead of the pen ones that they've used in previous

years.

So I think obviously the courts are still quite gritty high bouncing.

So still on the slower side, even if it is slightly quicker than last year.

But yeah, that's where we are with the conditions for for Sunday.

So hopefully sort of set fair for tennis and not all is good to go.

Yeah, it always got to bear in mind the conditions at Indian Well, slower courts.

But yeah, obviously it's in the desert.

So at night does get quite chilly compared to during the day.

So that does affect the conditions.

And of course, makes it a bit of a lottery with the players you're backing

because if they're playing in the day, it's going to be quicker than if they're

playing in the evening.

So that's a general overview of the tournament so far.

We're going to have a look at some matches now starting with Serana Castilla

against Linda Noshkeva Castilla having something of a revival in the twilight of her career.

And Castilla actually quite a heavy favorite here minus 165,

Noshkeva plus 132.

The spread is two and a half games and totals 22 and a half.

And Castilla 1664 when they met in Dubai last month,

she's already knocked out the Anna Schneider lower in the world rankings.

Quite a bit lower, 38th to Noshkeva's 14.

Quite short here, isn't she Tim?

Yeah, that was my first thoughts when I saw the sort of money line prices.

Like you said, she's she's quite a way ahead.

Noshkeva is quite a way ahead in the world rankings on the places there.

But Castilla has shown a decent bit of form lately.

Although the head to head is one, one, one with with her having that victory

in Dubai just three weeks ago and on court,

you would have thought would have favored Noshkeva a little bit.

But I think she has been a for me.

She's just been a little bit disappointing so far this year in Noshkeva.

I think we we quite fancied her to go well in one of the Middle Eastern events

and she let us down a little bit there.

Looking at the two matches they've played, even the match Noshkeva one.

So she was led the service points, one of return points, one totals in the match.

I think 101 to 99 and and over the course of the two matches to steer lead at 111.5 to 88.5.

So so you could probably see where that minus 165 comes from.

If they're the kind of stats they're looking at.

So still she's she's an excellent sort of twilight to our career.

As you mentioned there, she's won 12 of her last 14 matches with those losses

only coming to Naomi Osaka at the Australian Open and Alexiala and Dubai.

Having come from clues winning the title there,

which you probably would have thought was quite high up on her to do list

to being in back in her in her home country.

Noshkeva as we spoke, she said a bit of a stuttering start this year.

She hasn't been able to win more than two matches in a row yet.

She did beat Bujas Minero here in her first match 6363,

looking fairly comfortable in doing so.

Bosses Sastia has already had two wins here over Tatiana Maria in three sets

and a pretty decent victory in straight sets over Diana Schneider.

Having said Sastia did look a little bit short at minus 165 on the money line.

I think this will be a little bit close in those odds to Jess.

So I mean, it's probably only going to be a lean,

but I thought over two and a half sets was probably worth

chanceing at plus one, two, five.

I was tempted with Noshkeva, but looking at the stats,

I just think I think if I had to choose one I'd be with Sastia,

but not quite at those odds.

So I think it will be tight as their previous sort of not the matching

to buy, but the previous one in Brisbane suggested that went that went

the distance at a very close 101 to 99 over the three sets there.

So yeah, I think it's just going to be a lean,

but I thought over two and a half sets at plus 125 was probably the way to go

in what looked a little bit of a tricky opener.

Moving on to our second match.

It's Camilla Osorio against Naomi Osarca.

Osorio plus 150, Osarca minus 195.

Spread again is two and a half games and the total's 21 and a half.

Head to Head is one a piece, but Osorio won their last meeting,

which was actually at Indian Wells last year.

And she's coming here off the back of a good win over Eva Yovitz

in the last round.

So could be perhaps a chance of an upset here, Tim.

Yeah, I'm hoping so.

I quite like the dog here.

I think, as we've mentioned already,

do keep an eye on the schedule for this because I think this match,

I think Osorio would prefer if it was played at night and perhaps

Osarca she might prefer if it was in the day.

I think when they played the match here last year,

Osario was the winner of that what match was played at night.

So I think that's another reason why Osorio will be hoping

this might be a repeat of that in any evening contest.

I think the slower conditions really suit her.

The head to Head obviously won all again.

And Zarya winning her match at this event last year, 6464.

I think she dominated the service points,

one return points, one totals that day, 115 to 85.

I think she won 78% of her first serve points

and she won 90% of her service games over that match.

But I think the key step to take out of that was

she won 55% of her second serve points

compared to just 39% from Osarca.

And as I mentioned, that game was played at night.

So I definitely keep an eye on this schedule.

I'd be I'm keen on Osorio anyway,

but I think I'd be a little bit even sort of even more bolstered

if it's if this was a night match.

I'm hoping it will be.

I know Osarca's probably quite quite a big show there

and obviously a past winner of this event.

So hopefully they might sort of schedule this for a night game.

Osarro has also been in great form so far.

She won the challenger in Manila so far this year.

She thought she won four matches in Doha before losing to

what turned out to be a rejuvenated Elena Astapenko.

And she's already won in her two matches here,

beating Eva Jovic in three sets yesterday,

which was a really decent victory.

I did think Yovic having a little bit of time on the ball

and I'm sorry, not being blessed with great amounts of power.

I thought I thought Jovic would probably get the better of her.

So quite an impressive result for Osarro

to come through there in three sets.

Osarca played her first match here yesterday.

I'm sorry, her first match here yesterday,

since we're drawing before her third round match

in Australia and open with injury.

She won seven, five, six, two, but she's another player.

She hasn't won one, two matches in a row

at the same tournament since the US open

where she obviously made the semi-finals there

before losing to Amanda and her Samaoba.

So I do still think Osarca does have a few question marks

to answer.

So I think having with all that being said,

and Osarro being in decent form and a victory on these courts

against Osarca here last year,

I thought the plus 150 on a repeat performance, excuse me,

from last year is well worth taking.

So as I've mentioned there,

do just keep an eye on when this match is scheduled

because if it is in the day,

I'd still be, I'd probably still be backing Osarro,

but I'll certainly be more confident

if this is a repeat of last year and this is played at night.

But I do think that 150 probably looks a little bit too big

with a player who's full of confidence in Osarca,

who's probably yet to get back to the sort of high levels

we've seen ever in the past.

So yeah, Zorro on the Moneyline plus 150, I think.

So there's our first official play of the show,

Camilla Sorrio on the Moneyline

plus 150 against Naomi Osarca.

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Moving on to our third match.

It's Eila Tomlianovic against Jasmine Halene,

Tomlianovic plus 180, Paulini minus 230,

spread three and a half games,

totals 20 and a half games.

Just the one previous meeting,

that was at last year's French Open and Paulini,

one, eight, six, three, six, three.

The Australian Tomlianovic beats Genu Wang

in the previous round here.

Paulini had to come from a set down

to defeat Anastasia Potapova.

What do you make of this one, Tim?

Yeah, an interesting match.

I think you've got two players here,

whose confidence levels might be sort of a,

little bit sort of different ends of the spectrum.

And Paulini has been struggling of late.

She's obviously done well to come through

that match in three sets there yesterday.

I think Paulini, she has been struggling for four,

I think she's had six wins and five defeats so far this year,

with some of those difficult losses coming

to trust to Eila Tomlianovic, obviously,

with Australian Open, Maria Sacri, Alexiala,

and Christina Books.

I think Christina Books are a few of us

were on last time to beat Paulini.

And all of those defeats have come in straight sets,

which I think are Paulini of a year or certainly two years ago

would be extremely disappointed with her form.

And I think that's been the case so far this year.

And she obviously came through in three sets

against Potapova in her first game here,

which should give her a little bit of confidence.

But again, she made hard work of that.

And I've been quite impressed with Tomlianovic lately.

She looks to be finding her way into some form in Austin there.

She had good performances coming over Venus Williams

and she's another player to beat Eila Jovic recently.

And that's, we've seen this kind of tennis Jovic

she's been able to play.

So she's also won both first matches so far here in straight sets

with an excellent victory over Jing Wang,

winning in that six, three, six, one.

I think she won 79% of her first serve points in that match

without losing her serve.

So a really impressive performance from there.

And she just looks like she's coming to a bit of form for me.

And I think with her condition, her confidence at a higher level

and Paulini still struggling to find that form of all.

I thought 180 on the money line was, again, a price

it was probably worth taking here.

As I said earlier, we cash with Christina Books of Beaton,

Paulini, I think in the tournament

before this sort of last week or the week before, sorry.

And I hope Tom Yanoch might be able to sort of do

a similar favor here with her confidence

getting towards a higher level and starting to play it

from what I've seen at a decent level of tennis.

And I just thought anything, anything above plus 150

Tom Yanoch, she was worth taking.

So I was quite happy to see plus 180.

I thought I thought it looked a little bit of value.

So again, on the money line,

Tom Yanoch is a player I want to be getting with here.

And I think plus 180 is a bit of a good way

to go with a struggling Paulini at the moment.

So Tim's taking on Jasmine Paulini again

in the top of Yanoch, plus 180 on the money line there.

Arena Subbellenca, the world number one,

faces Jacqueline Christian in the round of 32.

Subbellenca, unsurprisingly a very heavy favorite here,

minus 1250.

Christian $7, the spread six and a half games

and totals 18 and a half.

This is their first meeting.

Good win for Christian in round one.

She was the underdog against Janice Chen

before defeating Maya joint.

Subbellenca got past Himano,

Saket Sumi in the round of 64.

That was her first match since her defeat

in the Australian open final to Yelena Rybakina.

Can you see a bet here, Tim?

I hope so.

I've found one that we're going to get stuck into.

So yeah, I've been looking forward to this sort of head to head

because Christian's a player I like and I think she's a player

who sort of really deals with power quite well,

a little bit like a pot of hover type player,

who obviously pushed Subbellenca to close sets there

in the Australian open and I'm hoping Christian

can do something similar for us here.

Obviously this is the first match between him

and she's proved she can deal with sort of power players pretty well.

She had a victory over Alex Androva already.

She had a reasonable six, four, six, three defeat to Robikina.

She also took a set off for Anisum over at the US open.

I think she had another close tie break set

that she lost to Robikina in Montreal

and she's also got a win to Linda Noscow under her belt.

So they're sort of four players I've mentioned there

that possess a sort of strong ground strokes game

play with a high level of speed and pace on the ball

and Subbellenca is obviously one of those

that you can put into the mix there as well.

Christian did well to come through that last match against my joint.

I think she lost the first set, six love there.

Perhaps she was feeling a bit no legs having come

for a three set match in the previous round just a day later,

but she came through to win the next two matches there,

two sets there, sorry.

Subbellenca obviously played her first match

in the Australian open defeat with a six, four, six, two victory

but she looked a little bit rusty in that first set

and she sort of found her way and found a little bit more rhythm

and kept those unforced areas down in their second set.

As I said, Christian coming through the second and third sets

against my joint, I was quite impressed with

and especially to take that third tight third set, seven, five

having beaten Janice Chen the day before.

I think the best way I'm probably getting with Christian here

is I think the plus six and a half games handicap

is probably a little bit generous.

I mean, even if Subbellenca wants to go and take this match,

six, three, six, three, we're still going to cash that bet

and I think a minus one, two, five, a six and a half spread

on the handicap probably looks a game too high for me.

So I thought that was the best way of going.

As I've mentioned there before, a first head to head meeting

but she's not afraid to sort of go toe to toe

with these sort of power players and she does hold a pretty good,

a pretty good solid baseline game off both wings.

So I think plus six and a five, six and a half games

on the handicap, but just minus one, 25 there.

Look, looks the best way again with Christian here.

I'd hope she can at least keep this competitive.

So Christian on the handicap plus six and a half games

against the world number one.

Final match we're going to look at,

Victoria and Boko against Anna Callin's Skier

and Boko minus one, six, five, Callin's Skier plus one,

30 spread, two and a half games,

totals 21 and a half.

Both of these players lost to Carolin and Mukava in Doha

and Boko in the final of course, two previous meetings

and Boko's one and both.

Callin's Skier did have to retire in the first of those.

Both had to work hard in their opening matches

and Boko against Kimberly Burrell and Callin's Skier

against Zaynep Sonmez.

Callin's Skier is a funny player.

She can be brilliant on her day

and pretty average on others.

I don't know.

I think as we've been discussing,

this is like all of these matches,

I think we need to keep an eye on the scheduling.

I'm not sure which one will be favored with this

tonight, although I suspect it would be in the daytime.

Do you have any views on this one, too?

Yeah, well, I was also sort of interested to hear your views, Roy.

But I thought this was a tough match to call.

Callin's Skier is a player.

I, be honest, I struggled to get right.

I mean, she's cost me a few times.

And I think I saw her earlier in the year.

I think it was in one of the Middle East games

where she was, she was, I think she won the first set

comfortably against Emma Navarro.

She was absolutely dreadful in the second set

and Navarro looked for all money.

Like she was going to sort of run away with a match

and then Callin's Skier sort of found a very top level

in the third set to come through a very comfortable third set

in the end.

And then just as I thought she was going places,

I think she, she was playing Noskiver.

I think she was four one up in the second set of that match.

And I think she was serving up four to 30 left,

served a double fault.

And I don't think she won another game in the match.

Noskiver came back to take that game six, four

and then to take her in straight sets.

So I do find her extremely tough player to predict.

I've been very impressed with Emboco

as I'm sure most of us have, have all year.

She, she was excellent against,

we're biking her in one of those Middle East swing matches

before losing at the final to Noskiver there.

Perhaps just one game too far after,

after playing plenty of tennis.

And looking at that previous sort of head to head record here,

I thought the, I was, I was kind of leaning towards

over on the total games.

I thought over 21 and a half and minus 108

was, was probably something I wanted to look at.

I think Kanskaya will have her moments in this match.

She, she's that player with a strong level of ability

that she can, can turn her on at any time.

And, and Emboco probably more consistent

over the period of the match.

And it wouldn't surprise me at all to see her come through,

but at minus 165, you probably expect that.

But I think I'd just be sort of leaning towards

the over 21 and a half.

So I don't know whether you should have your view

backs up mind-rory or whether you're on a sort of

different trail of thought.

No, I, I, I mean, my first thought was,

was, I mean, it does depend which Kallin Skye turns up.

As you said, in that match against Muka very in Doha,

you know, she was in charge of that second set

and then just fell apart, you know,

after that double fault, as you say.

And I mean, my first thought was that Kallin Skye

looked a little bit big, but can you trust her

on the money line?

Probably not.

So, you know, over two and a half sets there

at plus one, four, three might be the way to go.

Because, you know, as we said, she is very capable,

but at the same time, the form can dip without notice.

So, don't know, I thought, yeah, over two and a half sets

at plus one, four, three might be a play here,

but probably not one I'm going to get involved in.

But, yeah, I think it might be a bit closer

than the odds just was my thoughts on this one.

So, that's the five matches looked at.

I think we've got three official plays from you, Tim.

Do you want to just go over them quickly?

Yeah, sure.

We've bookended those sort of matches there

with a couple of leans, I think, in those two games,

but I think the official plays, I think we'll look

at, in the Camilla Azorea vs. Niammiya Sarkamatch,

I think we'll take Camilla Azorea on the money line

at, I think she was plus one 50, I think she saw there earlier.

Yeah, I think that's, that's well worth taking.

But as I mentioned, just keeping on the scheduling,

I'd be even more confident

if that game goes ahead at night, but even in the day,

I think plus one 50 looks a bit well worth getting involved in.

And in Eilert, Tom Yanovich against Pauline,

I think we're also going to stick with the money line there.

I think Tom Yanovich at plus one 80,

just looks a little bit on the big side to me.

So yet, Tom Yanovich to also beat Pauline

on the money line plus one 80.

And just in the arena,

Savalenko vs. Jettling Christian match,

we're going to get with Jettling Christian

on the plus six and a half game spread at minus one, two, five.

So yeah, all sort of one unit plays on those three selections.

And hopefully we can get a couple of winners

and we can be in profit,

because we've had a good time with things lately.

So yeah, hopefully we can continue along that run.

Absolutely.

We're hoping the dogs bark at Indian Wells in this round.

Just to mark your card for some of the shows coming up

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That's it from us.

And thanks for your company.

Great to be back.

Best of luck, Tim, with your selections.

Hopefully Nigel's back and back on form early next week.

I'm sure him and Tim will be looking

at some more matches at Indian Wells.

But thanks for joining us and see you again soon

on betting weekly WTA.

Thanks for listening to betting weekly WTA

on the Beck Rivers Network.