481 | Just Baseball's Top 100 Prospects (70-56)

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Wow, his first big league swing is going to be a grand slam, a home run, swing and

drive.

Not to break.

Welcome to the show.

Third edition of our Top 100 Breakdown here on the call-up, Arm Layton, Jack McMillan

this time.

Jack excited to break down this group for the Top 100 with you.

We're going to start with one that in the live stream.

We spent a good amount of time on just kind of discussing why we're a little bit lower

than everybody else.

But since then, I got some good counterpoints, so that will be a fun conversation.

And then like we mentioned before, we're due for a prospect performers check-in.

We watched Kevin McGonagall go LeBron mode, essentially, although it was like the old

calves LeBron mode before they won the finals where it took things over in the beginning,

and then they just got beat up in the end by a better team.

But we get to talk about a lot of different spring training performers that said we got

a lot of prospects to get through.

Yeah.

LeBron mode is good.

I was going to say Markelle Fultz University of Washington mode or maybe Bradley Beal

Wizards mode where they were clearly the inferior group.

But McGonagall tried his darnedest on Tuesday against the Dominican Republic.

But yeah, really excited to do 70 through 56 on this episode and then tomorrow is going

to be 55 through 41.

So one of the last guys you got through is a big leader in Brandon Sprote.

I think it's 71 and this is a run of pitchers in 70 to 56 that I wasn't necessarily expecting

and then I found myself writing down this intriguing arm and it's a intriguing arm and this

intriguing arm.

So it was interesting to see them stack there.

But we can start with Liam Doyle, the left team for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Doyle is a guy that was a top 10 overall pick last year in the draft out of Sarah by St.

Louis.

Obviously, people fell in love with him at the University of Tennessee.

But you feel like, I don't know, it's a bit more of a project than the rise through the

minor league ranks, really quickly, Ella Katie Anderson, right?

Yeah, I think depending on what you want and I think given where the Cardinals are at,

even though Doyle finished the year last year at AA and I think that's because I think

there was just time for him to squeeze in one more start.

This should be a little bit more of a take your time thing.

And even if it is with an assignment at AA, I don't think he needs to be fast tracked

to the big leagues sometime this year.

And look, if he makes a huge leap, absolutely.

But Doyle is a guy that could pitch his way to the big leagues off of the fastball, right?

Just dominate with the fastball in the zone and then he bring him up to the big leagues

and he could probably be effective out of the bullpen because it's a left-handed fastball

with a horizontal release that gets anywhere from 96 on average to touching, you know,

the upper 90s with some run and ride to it from that release point.

But off of that is the big question, right?

The splitter is the pitch that I think looks like can be a plus offering and I've seen

it look like that through spurts, but you do that 13% of the time and it's draft year

and it wasn't the most consistent pitch.

The slider is a pitch that I still think is lagging quite a bit and then the curveball

that whole mix in that I also think is a little bit behind.

My thing with him and this is where we did get some good counterpoints from Cardinals fans.

I see a max effort guy that because of that, the secondary shapes are a little bit inconsistent.

There's some bad misses mixed in and even though he's throwing strikes,

it's like the control over command thing.

It's definitely more just just control and avoiding walks more than like executing

and then being able to fall back on, you know, the whip in the zone and the chase

at the top with the fastball.

I just, I see throw one more than pitcher right now.

That said, he's 21 years old until June.

There's a lot of time to work things out.

It's just also a guy that, you know, saw Velo jumps and back to back years

of pretty high significance.

I can 2020 Fort was 92 miles per hour in 2025.

It's 96 on average and in a lot of those starts, I saw that velocity, you know,

crater down and then there's data to back that up.

That's where I got some good counterpoints where it's like, well,

if you look a month by month, you got better at holding his Velo later in the year.

But he also was not asked to do as many up downs in the back half of the season.

There was a few more two, three, four inning, you know, outings in there.

So it's kind of a difficult sample to dive into.

I just took the whole year accumulatively and the Velo tapered down more than just

about anybody else in the first round or in the first couple rounds that you're looking

at starting pitching wise.

Also, not a lot of college pitchers go top five overall, even if they are one year breakouts.

And, you know, the strikeout totals are certainly there.

There's no doubt about that.

But, you know, in terms of like a one year breakout, this guy was a front line college

starter in a first round caliber starter for one season at the University of Tennessee.

And that's really it because at Ole Miss, it was an ERA closer to six and then a coastal.

It was an exciting project.

So it was an all around successful season for one year, for Liam Doyle, which is interesting.

What I love about Doyle is the floor is so high in the respect that if he does not come

around as this more complete pitcher, great.

You still have a phenomenal reliever, like a potential closer type.

If you're putting him in one inning spurts, one in two inning spurts, it's going to be

up or 90s.

It's going to be lively.

And then the splitter will be enough off of that and maybe the slider will play out.

But I still think he can blossom into this, you know, maybe there's just like Robbie

Ray type of starter here that I think could be, you know, a really fun player.

And who knows?

This is one of those players when you write the scouting report.

I wish I could kind of put a label where it's like, if I'm wrong, he's going to be better

than I thought.

And the versus like, is that your hope with a lot of the reports?

Like, if I'm wrong, he's probably going to be worse than I thought.

This is one where if I'm wrong, he's going to be better than I thought.

And I do feel confident about that with Doyle.

Interesting case.

In number 69, you have Luis Peralas of the Washington Nationals.

And Peralas was a red sock prospect, again, one for one swap this off season with Jake

Bennett.

Bennett went from Washington to Boston.

He just sit 100 miles an hour in the fall.

He also walked 11 guys in 11 innings.

Where do you stand on Luis Peralas right now?

I just, I think it's a very similar situation, right?

And that's why I think it's fun.

I know people probably take the left hand or throw in that hard ahead of them.

And I get that because it is, it is rare, rare from, from the left side.

But so is a hundred with plus vert from the right side.

And maybe I'm holding on to hard to the pre TJ sample that we got in 24 where Peralas was,

I think one of the most impressive stuff guys in the minor leagues.

I think if you would have finished that year, would have probably been consensus top 100

prospect.

It was nine starts, 33 and 2 thirds innings where Peralas between high A and double A struck

out 56 batters and 33 and 2 thirds allowed one homer, five extra bass hits.

Only walked 12, which I think is a really important part of this as well.

And pitch to a 2 9 4 ERA, 1 9 1 5, the fastball average 98 in that stretch with plus vert.

The thing that really, really encouraged me was the secondary command.

It's just over the top delivery.

And I love that we talk about that with Treya Savage, right?

With that very vertical delivery, how that splitter can play off of it.

And even though it's vertical, it's not high, high, high.

I think that's where it really plays up right at the super high release point where it feels

like you're dropping that splitter from the sky.

But even so, like with with the way that Peralas throws, I think it really creates a difficult

tunnel because he gets, he gets his shoulder down to the point where his arm can still even

though it's only about a five foot eight release height.

So he's still actually releasing a little bit lower.

I think that helps him with the fastball playing up.

It's still very vertical because of the way that he kind of leans downward with his shoulder

where he can have that upright arm angle.

And from that point, and things like 55 degrees.

And from that point, I think the splitter drops down from there.

You can't pick up the cutter out of his hand because he throws the cutter at 90 to 92.

And then the fastball takes off from there.

So I thought that was all really, really difficult for hitters.

And then the fact that the secondary command got to the point where the cutter, slider,

and splitter combined for a 69% strike rate in those nine starts, I think was extremely

encouraging.

Now, we have to see him do that again, but just the mere fact that we saw him back in

the AFL off of the TJ throwing the way that he was throwing.

And it was mostly two winning spurts, but Peralas average 99.2 with the fastball.

The cutter was actually at 91.

He had good breaks on the splitter, all of a sudden that's in the mid 80s.

So the VLS operation already being right back there coming off of such a long way off

was impressive.

Then he mixed in the slider as well.

The secondary command wasn't totally there, I don't think anybody was expecting it to

be.

But for Peralas off of TJ, to clearly have that fastball, either right back where it was,

or even better, depending on how it holds in the up-downs, I thought was extremely impressive.

And I'm excited to see a full season from him now in a nationals organization that clearly

targeted him with a former, former Red Sox employee in Taboni, going over the nationals

and saying, how can we get Peralas here?

Go take Jake Pennet.

Right.

There is a lot of unknown with Peralas.

There's, I think, a lot known with your number 68 guide.

It's Carson Williams.

Also I guess Peralas is no longer in that division, but also in the American leg east.

Carson Williams and the Tampa Bay Rays had 32 big league games under his belt, north of

a hundred blade appearances in the major leagues.

At $1.72, really didn't walk, didn't slug too much.

He had five homers in 32 games with a slug still right around 350, and it was a 573 OPS.

The interesting thing is this guy was considered a world-class shortstop defender, making his

way through the minor leagues, and he put up a negative b-war, like he didn't grade

out as an elite shortstop in his first 32 games.

Where do you stand on Carson going into 26?

Yeah, that's an interesting one too.

And I also just a tie a bow on the pitchers.

Look like Peralas will be one that if I'm wrong, it was because I was higher on.

So the flip side of the Doyle thing, but again, fallback of disgusting reliever.

Here's the thing with Williams.

Go back to it.

And I try really hard, and I know, like, we really talk about this sometimes.

You have a 45-minute conversation with a guy, like, how do you not, and you're really

impressed, how do you not have that, like, seep into your thought process a little bit

sometimes when you're ranking these players, and you got to be really focused on not doing

that.

There's instances where I do think it makes sense to call back to those conversations.

I think about a Ryan Walchmann, like, whether you think he can break camp.

Well, I know it was just a 45-minute conversation, but the way he carries himself and the way

he goes about his business, don't you feel like Ryan Walchmann has the mental makeup

to make that leap, right?

Like Carson Williams, after speaking to him, especially with the way that he goes about

his defense, I feel like he's the type guy that one is just way too good to, and that's

just the natural ability watching him.

Way too good to have graded out the way that he did, but two, has all of the ability mentally

to figure out what went wrong and fix it there.

I think he was just carrying the offensive struggles out to the field defensively.

I think there's probably a little bit of the game being quick for him.

I always go back to this, and this was the, like, this made me question my entire ability

to assess anything if it continued this way.

Bobby Witt Jr.'s rookie season, where he graded out pretty poorly as a defender.

I mean, in 2022, Bobby Witt Jr. was negative 18 defensive run save and negative eight

outs above average, and that was one of the easiest 60s I put on a glove at shortstop

in a while.

I know that was early in the process, but still I was like, man, that guy's way too good.

So I look at that sometimes as I say, it's a different game, it's faster, you're overwhelmed,

and I really think that was a big part of it for Carson defensively.

Gotcha.

That makes sense.

That wise, where do you feel like he could stand and do you, I'll turn this into a big

league conversation.

Do you feel like he may be best served with more time and Durham as opposed to being on

the opening day roster?

I would say that if the team was better.

I think, but they're not you got to say that's the weird thing.

Yeah.

What do you think?

You think you think it's, I think they're going to be pesky.

I was looking at the big, like the bad MGM odds, they never like the Brewer's race types,

but they really don't like the race here.

That almost makes me like the raise more, but I don't know.

I still feel like the team, like they don't have somebody clear cut better right now at

shortstop.

Like if the alternatives going to be Taylor Walls or Ben Williamson, let's let the kid

learn a shortstop at the big level.

That's kind of my thought.

I think so.

They also traded for Williams and they could have him play short and then figure out where

to put him a little bit later.

Williamson is a good defender.

They got to figure out how to get him in the field because he's not going to play third.

You've got the common arrow guy.

You just traded for Lux.

You probably aren't going to move Lux off a second base when you just acquired him.

They got to figure it out.

I wouldn't be shocked, of course, and spent a month down there in Durham.

I mean, looking at the roster resource right now, I don't disagree because of that acquisition

of Williamson and then also, you know, everything else that you mentioned because, yeah, he's

going to have the DH spot.

You want to keep it on the lineup.

Right.

They're going to have to work through some things there.

I don't think it's the worst thing ever though to have Williams build up some momentum

and come in hot other than rather than starting so well, trying to work his way out of it.

He's had some decent A, B's this spring, but I mean, the whiff is just too much and I think

the biggest concern with Carson is like, it's the out of zone with where basically if he's

ever going to chase, there's very little chance that he's going to spoil it.

It was a 32% out of his own contact rate, which typically implies rigidity to the swing.

Like, it's kind of one swing for one spot and you don't have much adjustability.

So I think at this point, Carson, Carson Williams is a mistake hitter.

If you're a plus defensive shortstop who can grab 20 bags and you have plus power, you

could carve out a really good career at shortstop as a mistake hitter.

But there's also a really gentle line between you being in everyday shortstop and Paul

DeYoung.

And so I think, and that's not even a total slight like Paul DeYoung is still getting

jobs here.

Man, like the young side of the extension is a young guy with the St. Louis Cardinals.

I mean, there's a world where it's a decent player as Paul DeYoung.

Yeah.

Exactly.

And that was after he hit 30 homers, but it's so delicate that the line was very delicate

for Paul DeYoung to be the extension candidate in Paul DeYoung.

So that's the hard part.

And I think Williams is still ranked in this range because if he does put it together,

he's an extension candidate.

But if he doesn't, it's going to be a guy that has a job, but floats around a little

bit.

Not much new on Travis Sakura of the Washington Nationals.

He's out for pretty much the whole year with Tommy John surgery.

He may get one or two appearances in a rehab setting at the end of the 26 season.

Tornue CL for him last year after he was amazing through the first two months of

the season.

He was one of the best starters in all of minor league baseball, ERA well under two.

Sakura, do you have any more color to add on Sakura right now?

Yeah.

Quickly is just, you know, we talked about it when we put out the, when we did the live

reveal show that the process that Eileen did just a little bit more.

And we'd always looked at, you know, scatterpots and things like that.

But prioritizing the scatterplots a little bit more than the results, right?

Where I think sometimes you get really own with Sakura, you could either or you prioritize

either or he's going to be one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.

But like zone with and strike rate and all the things, those are all great things.

But, you know, we've seen guys be able to, to really juice those numbers with their

pitch ability.

And then this stuff doesn't play the same way at the big league level in the era of

stuff plus cards though.

I'm sure people don't want to hear as much about that.

I'm not going to spit out a stuff plus score at you.

I'm just going to tell you what I see from the scatterplot here.

And it's, it's a really unique plot in the respect that it implies that it's a tunneling

nightmare, right?

He's a horizontal release guy, it's six foot six.

And then you have the fastball, the splitter and the slider diagonally working right like

alongside each other.

And that's where you then go to the results.

And you say, no wonder in 12 starts last year before going down with TJ, he had an in zone

with rate of 41%.

Basically, everything looks like it's going to be the same pitch down the middle and then

just goes in different directions.

And I think that is a nightmare from a horizontal release, right?

In a overall with rate of 50% in those 11 starts the 12th was only an ending before he went

down.

It's a kid that actually was talking to the sports card CEO guys, Bubba or Gary, the

Bowman farmers, a lot of people know him as a good relationship with Sakura.

And I think he's actually going to come on the show and just lodge his work at the keys

of Braves fan.

He's like, I trade the whole Braves farm system for him, which is crazy because I don't

think he realizes how many good arms Braves app point being I always talk about Tommy

John as a as a separator as well.

Everyone comes back, you know, usually in a pretty good shape from it.

There's guys that come back way better or those guys that come back a little bit less

than when they were and have to build up and those guys that come back kind of the same.

I look at it as a year and a half ish opportunity kind of like we talked about with the layoff

season there too in 2020 is like, if you work harder than the average guy, it's going

to show.

And Sakura is a hard, hard, hard, hard worker and I'm interested to see if it shows with

him.

And what does that look like because it's already three plus pitches.

Yeah, totally hear you on that.

Sakura leads us right into another guy where you have to dig a little bit deeper than

the surface level numbers.

George classhead of the LA Angels had an ERA north of five last year in double A and

that's not one of the hard places to throw.

It's in the southern league in rocket city.

Why are you encouraged by class since 25?

I know he was kind of a sneaky, deep cut breakout pick for you at the big league level

this year on the just baseball show.

Yeah, this is one where you just like, you got to trust the stuff will prevail.

And in the spring, it's over all, right?

Yeah, actually, I got to go check the cards there and see, but like, it's, I think they

would actually loan and I think that's a big part of it too.

It's like, I'm joking because it's become a really nauseating conversation on Twitter

recently.

And I think there's a place for everything.

But class and I think you look at what he's able to do, right?

And it's a sinker in the upper 90s.

It's a four seamer in the upper 90s.

This power change up slider.

I just feel like this kind of stuff.

It's kind of shocking that he turned in the numbers that he did last year, but I go back

and mentioned like, a couple blow up outings really juicy or ERA.

He took a comeback or off the head.

And that 100% affected him.

And I think that really affected his numbers through the finish line as well.

And I think it's a matter of consolidating some of those bad outings and being able to

limit the damage.

And I think that's something I will continue to work on right there is like an ending

in two thirds, seven, seven runs, bomb away, bombs away, one third of an ending where

it's seven runs, bombs away.

But he settles in in the last four starts as well, which included one at last Vegas.

And he pitches to a one nine six year A at the end of the year, 23 ending 32 strike

outs, only five run runs and only three extra bass hits.

When we did a stat query of like curve balls at X velocity, I think it was like above 87

miles per hour and getting more than six inches of a vertical break.

There was a very, very short, short, short, short list.

And this was an all professional baseball and George Classen's breaking ball was in that

mix.

It's a slider that I think is a 70 pitch and then he has a power curve ball that's an

easy plus pitch.

Then you have the fastball in the upper 90s and I think it really just comes down to execution

for this guy to be, you know, the pitcher that he is capable of being.

So I'm excited to see what it looks like this coming season.

I think he's going to build on the positives of last year and I think there's a little

bit of a point where the sinker and the forcing were bleed together and just trying to

really like focus on a more consistent shape.

And I think I'll get there, put the slider and curve ball alone are too damn good mixed

with the velocity for this guy not to be, you know, an impactful big league arm as soon

as this year makes sense.

George Classen should get to the big leagues.

Another guy in the American league that should get to the big leagues is your number 65

prospect in the game.

Noah Schultz of the Chicago White Sucks.

Schultz is kind of similar to the class and thing.

You look at the season long ERA and say, why is it that high?

It's because he got absolutely annihilated in AAA when he got there.

It was five starts at a 9.370 ERA, 17 earned runs and 16 and a third innings at work.

But in AA, 12 starts in Birmingham at a 334 ERA, Mr. Teensy bit of time.

But this guy has yet to eclipse 90 innings in a professional season.

He was an 88 and a third and he was one of the best left-handed pitching prospects

in all of baseball after the 24 season in 25 year looking for him to get north of the

100 innings and he doesn't do that.

He's at 73 innings.

Where you went on Schultz going into 26 and probably a big league debut season.

Yeah, I mean, this is the big year in that regard, right?

I mean, you look at the health.

I think he was on the field for the majority of the year.

But if you ask, you know, why was Noah Schultz not Noah Schultz?

I think the answer would be banged up, right?

A little bit of a knee issue.

Some other minor issues maybe that he was dealing with.

So this guy keeps growing.

I think he's like north of 610 now.

I think they're getting to a point where that becomes a little bit concerning

for the starting, pitching outlook as well.

That said, the stuff is so good.

And I think if that knee wasn't bothering him, we would have seen the stuff

showing a little bit more.

We would have saw the command showing a little bit more.

I think the biggest thing is how uncharacteristic it is for him to walk 15% of

batters like he did last year.

You remember in 2024, he walked 7% of batters.

Now, I understand it was different levels.

But in zone rate was significantly higher.

And he just overall looked better.

So I just think for Schultz, it's a matter of staying healthy because we haven't

really seen a consistent, I think, free-flowing version of him since 2024.

And even then, there was a little bit banged up going into the year.

And that's why there, I think the whole conversation was a little bit of

elbow inflammation or whatever.

We're going to work him very carefully here.

So he's a guy that, if he does go to the bullpen,

another really electric arm out of there.

But I like the arsenal as a starter, right?

It's a sinker that can get him a lot of ground balls.

It's the sweeper off of that, the change up, the force him or that it can

sneak up at the top of cutter as a bridge.

I think it's a really well-rounded mix with an ability that he's shown in the

past to throw strikes.

And I do think that landing leg was affecting him.

Yeah.

If he's right, I think we can see a guy that could be one of the best pitching

prospects in baseball.

But it's really difficult to assess from last year.

Yeah.

I made this point on the just baseball show I believe on Wednesday afternoon.

Yeah, Wednesday was our AL Central Preview.

I called him one of the White Sox X factors because it's very similar to what

we saw in 24 with Druth Thorpe, where you need some watchability in that rotation.

Shane Smith was an all-star last year.

He was kind of the token all-star representative for the White Sox.

He was in that rule five draft.

But you've got a whole bunch of other guys that are fine.

But at some point, Schultz and Hagen Smith need to show up and need to be okay.

And Schultz is probably the closer one and the better one among those two.

Heck of a front court, Noah Schultz can form at the number 64 prospect.

We're going to get to him in a moment.

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Noah Schultz on baseball references listed at 6 foot 10 in 240 pounds.

Carlos Lagranhe of the New York Yankees is listed at 6 foot 7,248 pounds, and 6'7 might

be short-selling him a little bit.

22-year-old split the year last year between high A. Hudson Valley and double A. Somerset,

and this guy threw 120 innings at a 35-VR rate.

Walk rate was a little high, but clearly the stuff is dynamite for a 22-year-old that's

already in the upper minors.

Yeah, let's just call this like the high octane relief risk group.

I don't even think it was intentional, but I think you start to put these guys in a similar

bucket.

It makes sense.

How do you separate them with position players in between when they're very similar?

Dr. Ramhe from Spring Training, he's throwing 94 pitches, throwing 39 fastballs.

The fastball is averaged 100.1 miles per hour, but here's the problem, 72% strike rate

on the fastball.

The sweeper, changeup, and slider combined have a 54% strike rate, so this is going to

be the story with him.

The stuff is disgusting.

Disgusting.

If he can be remotely around the zone with the secondaries consistently, it's going to

be successful.

He was through stretches last year, and then when he wasn't, he really wasn't.

So I think he showed enough last year to where you look at him and say, this guy has the

ability to stick in the rotation if he takes another step forward.

There was a lot of positives there.

I just think big-bodied guy can get out of whack a little bit with the delivery, and then

as a result, he starts missing pretty consistently.

But when he's on, he's peppered in the zone with an assortment of disgusting pitches.

I think a fastball that looks like he could be really a 70-grade pitch, above average sweeper

and slider, and then the changeup even, I think that's a pitch that probably should bump

my grade up a little bit, where it's just, I think it a chance to really appreciate it.

It doesn't have the most vertical separation, but when it's off of 100, this power changeup

I think is just a good pitch.

We've seen that with the Marlins guys all the time, where it doesn't have to have the

most separation in the world.

It doesn't have to be the most diabolical pitch.

If you're throwing 100 or upper 90s, and then you've got this low 90s changeup that

has enough fade and enough brakes, velocity-wise, it's guys are going to be so sped up that

it's going to play.

It plays up beyond, I think, with the shape would imply, and that's why I think LaGranhae

is the best pitching prospect in that Yankee system.

Yeah, going from one blue chip organization of LaGranhae to another, and a guy working

his way back from Tommy John's surgery that has looked good in Big League Spring so far,

River Ryan of the LA Dodgers.

Ryan has made two spring appearances so far, three no hit innings, he's Cade 4 and walk

2.

And through two innings against Cleveland the other day, and he was sitting 97-98 with

his four same fastball.

He's a major league caliber starting pitcher.

Oh, yeah.

Is he trade bait for the Dodgers?

I, you know, it's funny.

I honestly think he's closer to their five than trade bait because Rokey Sasaki's looked

abysmal.

Dude.

I put him back in the frickin' bullpen.

I don't get it.

I don't know what we're doing.

And I float something your way real quick as an aside against River Ryan, like not associated

with River Ryan.

Ryan Finkelstein at the end of last week made a point after Sasaki didn't get out of

the first inning of his cactus league outing.

Why not send him to Oklahoma City?

If you're hellbent on making him a starting pitcher, do you think it's okay to send Sasaki

to Oklahoma City?

I understand the optics against doing it.

But like the option right now seems to be bullpen or OKC.

Yeah, or it's hey, we're so good.

We're going to make the playoffs anyways every 5th day.

Let's, let's just talk official land.

Yeah, they're going to have to put up eight.

I don't hate it.

And I think, I think you can manage the optics because of the fact that Rokey is on one

of the greatest teams ever assembled.

So it's like, it's not like you're, you're punting him out there to go plug in, you know,

even like a Kyle Hurr, who would even, then would be still, it's time I just five.

Like it's, it's for really good options here.

And I, that'll be a fun conversation because I, I think if he doesn't show a little bit

better, there's a very strong case for that for him to maybe go work on it in a controlled

environment.

Because Emmett Sheehan, I think he needs that four spot in the rotation.

He looks fantastic.

His stuff is fantastic.

And I think River Ryan deserves that five spot.

Gavin Stone is banged up again.

I mean, they dodged a major concern with the shoulder, but you know, seems post office

got some information there.

I think even at this point, Landon Nack, it's going to give you more, more quality

endings than Rokey, but I think River Ryan is, is just clearly the best of that, the

bunch that could be the fifth spot right now.

And I also look at their situation where they're going to want to, you know, preserve

snow and glass now and whatever.

I think there's a world where even off of TJ, of course, you're going to want to manage

his endings, but River Ryan's going to throw a lot of endings.

And I know people probably say like, oh, 27 years old.

How is this guy on the top 100 list?

Because he's literally a, he's a back another rotation started tomorrow and he has middle

rotation stuff.

Like it really is middle rotation stuff.

When you go through the stuff grades, like when you go through a pitch by pitch by pitch,

you're like, that has to be, if you're 30, I think he has to be the top 100 prospect.

It's a very unique circumstance given he's a converted in fielder, college guy, plus

the TJ that we have a 27 year old prospect here.

But it's a fastball with good shape in the upper 90s.

It's a disgusting slider off of it.

He's got an above average curveball, a good cutter and a change up that he mixes in there

with one healthy, above average command, take good starter in the big leagues for a long

time.

Yeah, it really seems like it and I, it's just advanced and obviously you're not going

to rank someone older than him on the top 100 very, very often.

But you know what River Ryan, they've been extenuating circumstances in this guy is 27

years old.

He turns 28 in August.

So he may set a record for you for the next half decade or so.

The oldest guy on top 100.

I don't think there'll ever be an older prospect unless like, if Kyler Murray came back

and played baseball and raked like his first year, like 30 and looks like every day center

of fielder, maybe there's a conversation, I don't know.

That's kind of weird that we can cop River Ryan to Kyler Murray, but Kyler, he's got a

problem.

I'm trying to think that only other way someone could be older than 27 and still a relevant

prospect.

Or this situation again.

Yeah, I guess double Tommy John, but he was amazing.

I, I don't even know.

I don't think there is a situation with River is there's not even that much injury

risk.

It's just one TJ.

All right.

It's one TJ.

And he was a college shortstop like he was just young in his pitching life.

And then Tommy John, it was a perfect storm of being ranked at 27 and a half years old.

Yep.

Joe.

Next guy, heck of a lot younger than River Ryan.

Go back to the Chicago White Sox Brayden Montgomery is your number 62 prospect in the

game.

Brayden Montgomery, 12 overall pick in 24 by the Red Sox at a Texas A&M started his college

career at Stanford.

He was in the crocheted deal.

Last year, he climbed from low a to double A and in 121 games, OPS over 800 with 12 homers

and 14 bags.

He went out to the fall league hit 366 with 1160 OPS and 12 games.

That was really sharp from him, walk more than he punched out in Arizona as well.

Yeah.

And he's having a great spring so far.

Right.

I mean, it's six for 15.

It's only struck out three times as two triples in a homer.

Brayden looks great.

And what I like is micro sample here, but three of his six hits are from the right side.

And the right hand of swing looks a little bit different.

Looks like he's focused more on coiling over that backside instead of kind of up and out

before.

Whereas I think guys are naturally going to have this side of the plate when you look

at splits.

A lot of times, maybe they see the ball better from one side of the plate, but the other

time, the other thing that I think is a big impact is usually just there's a little bit

more mobility.

Maybe one hit than the other.

You have a little bit more strength and balance and ability to hold your backside from

one side to the other.

And that was clearly the case with Montgomery and his left side.

Now he's using the ground really well from the right side, at least in limited sample

of just seeing the visuals of the swing.

And I think that goes a long way.

If he's sitting better from the right side this year, it's going to bring up the overall

numbers.

He's going to continue to show improvements in that regard like steadily, but I think

we've seen pretty significant improves improvements going into this year.

Now I know that technically, if you look at the OPS, it was like a 850 OPS from the right

side and like a 830 from the left side.

But when you look at like projecting out for the big leagues, the contact rate from the

right side last year was 65%.

You struck out 30% of the time.

Whereas from the left side, the contact rate was nearly 70% and he struck out 23% of the

time.

That gap, that strikeout rate, which I think is a little bit of the concern with him right,

is that's mitigated a little bit.

I think that that overall will preserve his big league numbers and making more consistent

there.

It is freak bad speed.

And I think that's the biggest thing with him that stands out and how can he continue

to leverage that?

Leverage that by making better swing decisions because you have more time to decide and

leverage that by impacting the baseball in the air.

Those are the two things that he made huge progress with the swing decisions.

And I think hitting the ball in the air will hopefully come this year where it was a 50%

ground ball rate.

I think it was an average launch angle south of 10 degrees on hard hit baseball.

Not egregious, but could be a little bit better for a guy that is going to be power over

hit.

I think he's a fantastic athlete.

I also think it's important to know like he was coming off of a pretty catastrophic ankle

injury.

And maybe that affected, you know, one side of the box a little bit more.

I know he was healthy, you know, early in the season, but that was a brutal, brutal ankle

injury.

And it wasn't like he was, you know, full, full, go right away.

I think there was some easing in during the spring training process, especially through

the off season.

So this was his first full pro off season and really kind of first full off season in

a couple of years where he's fully healthy.

And I think there's a real world where bread and Montgomery capitalizes on that and has

a huge year.

And in the discord, we talk about like card investments and I'll say about like cards.

I think you should buy maybe going in the year and I think my gummeries is one that makes

a lot of sense.

The prices went way down when he got traded to the white socks and you just look at the

upward mobility for him in this organization as a switch hitter also with plus power.

And then we'll see what they do defensively, you know, I think he can break glass for emergency

get by and center, but this is a guy that I think with his arm, man, this is an 80 arm.

He put him in right field.

He could be one of the better defensive right fielders as he blossoms.

He was a two way guy at Stanford.

There was up to 100 miles an hour.

So yes, 80 grade arm surely guy that has yet to make his professional debut.

You have in the low 60s and it's Joe Joe Parker of the Toronto blue chase.

Joseph, Joe Joe Parker, eighth overall pick last year at a purpose high school in Mississippi.

Not a single professional played appearance just yet.

Why'd you love him so much out of the draft?

Hey, this is one where you just look at the swing man.

You just look at this guy hit and you say he's going to hit.

Now I don't know what everything else is going to look like.

How much power, you know, how patient is he going to be?

What's the defense going to look like?

Those things are all really tough.

But when we talk about how hit or miss it is on the amateur front, when there's a swing

that I just feel really, really confident it's going to play.

It's a guy that's going to it's going to rank pretty high up there.

Also sticking to the card point.

We did a second half case break of a Bowman draft last night.

And I was literally talking about how I don't see a lot of Joe Joe parkers in there.

It's one of the more popular chases in that product.

Right, right, as I say that we headed out of 250 auto and an out of 250.

So nice.

Someone did really well in our discord break last night.

By the way, the link to join that's in the episode description.

We're doing discount breaks.

We knew another Bowman draft one in there.

But the hobby is getting sharp, man.

They're all over Joe Joe and I get it because you could argue it's as pure of a prep

hitter in the class, right?

I mean, when you look at the grades and the future grades here, if it's above average hit,

above average plate discipline, average power, that's going to be a really good player for

a long time, even if he doesn't stick it short, right?

And so I think when you get a comment, it's very rare for a player at his age to project

for above average hit and potential power.

And I think that's what really is a selling point for Joe Joe Parker, especially from the

left side of the plate.

How did you get a plate discipline grade on him?

Is it just like a lot of all American circuits and travel circuits and things like that?

He was one where I was able to get a lot more at bats.

And you know, I don't like to put a plate discipline grade on a guy like him.

I was able to get about, I can actually confirm how many at bats I got.

I was able to get about 45 plus another seven or eight bridge league A B's.

I didn't feel great about it.

But then that was another one where you reach out, talk to Tyler Jennings, talk to some

other folks who had seen him a good bit and they feel really confident about the patients

and the approach being a huge asset to him.

But he was extremely patient and knows that bats against some high octane stuff that

I felt like could translate, but that's one where I also, I could correct that pretty

quickly through a couple of months of professional baseball.

But I'm hoping it sticks to that 45 55 future on the plate discipline.

Another guy high school kid, top 10 overall pick in last year's draft, Ethan Holliday,

younger brother of Jackson.

And obviously the son of Matt Holliday and notably a reserve for Team USA and their

scrimmage, he gets the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday.

Ethan Holliday punched out 33 times at 18 games.

That is a little discouraging.

The encouraging thing, he had six extra bass hits, including two homers in 18 games.

He was playing in Fresno, I understand.

But Ethan Holliday, it feels like you got to let the cake bake a little bit longer than

I think the industry as a whole is wanting to let it bake for him, right?

That's the thing that I'm interested in here, right?

Okay.

There's two schools of thought here.

And we knocked him down a little bit from where he was before, and maybe just because

it was just because I think there was an excitement around, well, this guy can take off, right?

And then I think that was probably a little bit overzealous.

But we talked about kind of the over correction thing afterwards as well.

We're now we're seeing, I mean, some really harsh outlooks on him.

And I just don't know if we have enough of a sample size to do that yet.

My thing is this, the biggest concern with Holliday going into his

pro career was swing in miss.

So you can look at that and say, oh, in 18 games, shoot, he validated our biggest fear.

Or you can say, okay, the biggest concern showed in 18 games kind of as we expected.

Let's see if he can work through this thing.

Now being drafted by the Colorado Rockies used to be Siberia.

I think there's better help there and infrastructure there to help him.

But if there's one player that could defy that anyways, it's Ethan Holliday because he

has his own player development infrastructure literally in his family home,

but also just just with the people that are around him.

So did I see that?

Did I see the home is on the market and it has a full baseball field in the back yard?

Did you see that?

Yes, yes, which is like, it's like attached to like the kitchen.

Who's going to buy that?

He's very the Lombard family.

Like what other families out there are going to buy that?

There's not that many others.

We're the next Salis family, man.

Yeah, he actually that might be a good one too.

To me, it was, okay, yes, he did validate the biggest concern, which is why he fell a little bit.

But I don't think you could say, look at that and say, well, that's enough to absolutely hammer him because

you were aware of this concern.

He didn't do this on the complex league.

Did this in a low way?

Even there, he also did validate the strengths.

He punished balls north of 110.

He looked the part in terms of absolutely destroying baseballs when he was on time.

There was some no doubt bombs to all fields backside, double off the wall on a 90 mile per hour fastball.

111 mile per hour laser.

But like that was there too.

So to me, there's very obvious with concerns.

And if it's continuous over the span of, you know, most of this upcoming season, then we start to really have a conversation.

But this was what we knew was going to be his weakness.

He struck out 35 times a 9-1 play to parents.

There's no way around that.

But at the same time, they could have just eased him in at the complex.

Didn't show him in low A or he plays five games.

And what?

No one's going to say much, right?

So I feel like it's almost unfair in a way where they rocky set him up for failure.

But I think it shows you how little they cared about the results at that point.

Let's see how things look going into this year.

And maybe he does with a ton.

I still think he's going to move off a short and that pride plays against him as well.

But if he's a third baseman with 70 power and 40 hit and you imagine he grows into plus plate discipline.

It's going to be a really good player even in that regard.

Yeah, totally seems like it, and especially calling that ballpark home.

Getting back to the upper minors, couple more guys on this episode.

Jackson Wiggins of the Chicago Cubs was outstanding last year.

78 innings at a 219 ERA between high A, double A,

and then he starts in triple A at the tail end of his season.

His best stint was probably in Knoxville,

because you up the difficulty obviously going from 26 and the third at a 170 R.A.

In South Bend to 42 innings at a 190 R.A.

With 52 punchouts to just 17 walks in double A Knoxville.

Now, I know that is the southern league and it's very picture friendly.

But another number that jumps out about Jackson Wiggins,

313 hitters faced. He allowed four home runs.

This guy kept the ball in the ballpark.

And he was really impressive last year in the minor leagues.

Where's your ETA here 27?

You feel like you can't be and that should probably be updated.

He should be in 26. He's going to get up there this year one way or another.

That's a good catch.

I just think with him in the Cubs that are very clearly in win-now mode.

And there's some urgency heading specifically to this team this year.

Wiggins is going to get up there to help them one way or another.

And then even the way he's shown in spring training first first time out.

It's kind of poms away against the angels and they made him wear it.

Any in a third six hits five earned.

He still punched out three.

He goes right back out.

You know, a weaker or so later.

Two no hit endings walks one strikes out two against the brewers.

And I think the next one's going to look good too.

It's one of the better fastballs in the minor leagues.

I think in terms of execution and and just pure pure shape stuff.

Be low all that good stuff.

And the challenge for them is just been the consistency of the secondaries.

And I think they got better as the season progressed.

His slider was very inconsistent.

I think that's that was a little bit frustrating at points.

But the change up.

I want to see him use it more.

He only threw it like 10% of the time off of that fastball to plus pitch.

Throw the change up more.

I don't know why he wasn't.

Maybe he was literally just working on stuff.

I'm not sure.

I want to see him throw that change up more.

That is a fantastic pitch.

He's very heavy fastball usage.

And I think probably part of it was he wanted to maybe mitigate the walk rate.

What's interesting is the change up last year.

Had a strike rate of 63%.

The slider had a strike rate of 53%.

So I think you'd actually throw more strikes if you cut down the slider usage a little bit.

And that change up is so good that I think he can go right on right with it with the way that his fastball moves.

So.

I want to see him use that change up a little bit more.

I think that'll help the command.

And then of course that slider is still in above average pitch.

If you can command it better, you know, in the middle there.

So.

Well, I think you can get up there and help them in the bullpen sometime this year.

But long term, you're looking at a guy that can be, you know, middle rotation arm for you with high octane stuff.

You can be really, really, really fun to watch.

Nearly the way that he finished the year.

Final nine appearances of 223 ERA.

He made three appearances in triple A where he held his own and he was not a guy that was affected by the big league ball.

This this stuff looked as advertised right away there as well.

They manage his endings a little bit carefully in the back half last year.

Remember he was coming off a TJ.

This is to be a year to where I think it's a little bit more full go for a full now two years removed from the TJ.

We might see a Jackson Wiggins moving even more free and easy this season.

He's a guy that I think could ascend into consensus.

Yeah.

Top five pitching prospect and baseball conversation with the way I think he's going to start out in triple A this year and throw.

Love it.

There's always a question for you in the mail backs, right?

The other guy on this list outside of the ones that are inside the top 15 that could end up being the number one prospect and baseball at some point.

And it seems like.

Just Swarda.

Jesus previously noticed just work in Zalas of the San Francisco Giants could be that guy because of where he is.

He just finished up year one of professional baseball.

It was in the DSL is age 17 season and it was ridiculous.

Just Swarda.

Jesus 52 games in the DSL hit 280 April with a 404 OBP and he what's 33 bags and 38 attempts in 52 games and he walked more than he struck out.

He walked a lot.

This guy.

Did he put together the most complete DSL campaign you've seen in a little bit.

I think if you exclude Maday or Maday, probably, probably the difference, though, is that the argument within favor of what you said is that Jesus.

It's very rare where you can look and say, hey, this is a plus defender at short stop off of DSL video.

But yeah, I feel pretty good about being able to say this is a future plus defender at short stop at least well above average defender at short stop off of DSL video.

It is so, so smooth.

Super strong arm.

And then he played it in the kind of the bridge league for them or like extended instructs whatever it was, whatever you want to call it at the end of the year.

And in nine games out there coming over to the state side to finish the year between September and bleeding into October, he was eight for 30 with two homers.

So he came over and started to face some, you know, that's like rehab and big leagueers, all these different players like an assortment of whoever is going to throw some endings and showed out there.

And again, the glove continued to look good there as well.

I think the blend of above average hit.

And that's where it'll be interesting to see how the contact rates hold.

You know, I think you should skip the complex.

You probably will probably know straight to LA.

How they hold against full season ball competition will be interesting.

But as a switch hitter with 91% zone contact 83% overall sneaky EVs, right?

He's a little bit more slash and dash right now.

And he's still hitting them all pretty hard is if he wants to kind of stay into his back side longer.

I think you're going to see even more and also just physically matures.

But at 17 years old, we still saw him flash, you know, some sneaky EVs there.

I'm looking for the max here was a max of 109, which at 17 years old with his archetype is plenty.

And then the defense, the approach, all these different things who walk more than he struck out, which he's to do in the DSL, but still.

The biggest thing I've talked about this with, you know, player development folks is like, he's going to go from seeing 66% fastballs, which is what he saw last year to that number.

He goes a low a probably for 50%.

If he goes to high a, that number is going to be cut in half.

How does he hit the breaking balls?

That's going to be the biggest variable there.

And I think that's where the slash and dash thing will be interesting to monitor.

That's the one hurdle because everything else is amazing, right?

I think everything else looks like a guy that could be that next, you know, top prospect and baseball type because of the sum of all of those parts.

It makes perfect sense to me.

Two more guys in this episode number 57 on arm Latens top 100 at just baseball.

The power prophecy has been fulfilled for the Guardian first space prospect Ralphie Velasquez.

22 homers last year between high A and double A majority of the year with high A Lake County got to Akron at the tail end of the season.

Ralphie Velasquez is someone that you have liked since the draft and he was taken in the first round in 2023 high school catcher immediately moved to first base.

22 homers did how much for you this year.

A good amount I would say which bleeds into the 22 homers the second half also highlighting spring training performer five for 11 so far.

He struck out once two doubles.

He's been fantastic when he's gotten opportunities to spring.

It was really getting getting into the power was was great in terms of the home run output.

But how about the way this guy just finished the season period?

We talked about the turbulence last year where he was really sick.

And then after the the futures game just just didn't really play very well and wasn't really himself in 24 excuse me.

Yeah and 25 was the total opposite final 60 games.

This dude swashed 332 409 588 and a season where he was 19 years old at the start of it.

He turned 20 at the end of May.

It seems like right after turning 20 he grows into this man strength to 997 OPS 12 homers in that span.

And the quality of contacts crazy to even 90107 hard hit rate of 51% and the angles were already.

Optimized 37% ground ball rate average launch angle on hard hit balls of 14 degrees and by the way only struck out 15% of time in that span.

So you have this guy growing into his power launching in the air hitting the ball harder than he ever has.

And the strikeout rate doesn't budge actually goes down 70 games prior.

Raffi was striking out 22% of the time and he wasn't doing this at the same level.

He's sprinting through the finish line at double a.

His final 28 games which were in double a.

Get a 994 OPS.

Who gets up to double and does that?

He clearly figured something out.

And by the way also 910 OPS against lefties.

You might not need to platoon this cat like I just I feel like this is one of the more well rounded power profiles that we have in the minor leagues.

And I feel like he's not getting enough love at all.

I think the Guardian system are tending to not get enough love which is crazy because they're known as a factor.

I know they haven't been as much of late.

I don't know.

I feel like guys are finding the radar on the Guardian system.

I don't know what I think it was.

I think it was like that that grouping that was so highly touted of Valera and Rocchio and Aaron Bracho and guys like that.

Will Brennan was also one of those guys.

That wave probably come up and was disappointing semi underwhelming in the major league.

So then everybody decides like oh you know what the Guardians you know it may not be totally valid because they're not plug and play stars right away.

But Ralphie Velasquez seems like the first basement that Cleveland has been hunting for years.

We need another bat like this and they traded for one in Manzardo and that's really cool.

But they needed somebody else because all their prospects are just bat to ball positionally versatile can play center can play shortstop or their pitch ability arms.

Ralphie Velasquez is a nice buck of the trend for the Cleveland Guardian right now.

Yeah I would say he in a mostly you know Manzardo was once patient in the minor leagues as well.

And that's where it's always time to you know.

We know how it's going to translate but I think Ralphie's just a better athlete and you know this has a better approach and hits the ball harder.

And that's and Manzardo is a great player right.

So that's the exciting part is you may have you know an even better version of Manzardo up there ready to go not too long from now.

I think he could be up there.

And if he has if he continues what he did the end of last year he could be a guy that ends up expediting his timeline to the end of this year.

But I think you look like a guy that can be on that opening day roster regardless in 2027.

Last guy we got to talk about in this episode newest Minnesota twin Eduardo Tiet not many guys in their age 18 season are going to hit 14 homers and play 37 games in high a and even fewer going to do that as a catcher.

He is is he on your prospect crush team.

He might be he might be because it's just it's just so fun to watch do like yeah I think he's a prospect fatigue guy.

Like which is weird to say about a 19 year old but you know everyone until the end of August.

Yeah which is also crazy everyone's talking about am I crazy in 24 right because you have this like this literal kid.

That is torching baseballs and then even in the start of of 2025.

A little bit of buzz but then he gets up to high a and struggles a little bit or you know even in the low a has some struggles in his approach you know unravels a little bit in terms of the production and.

It gets traded the twins and I feel like we have like there's not much heard about him.

I don't get why he's still figuring it all out like he's still trying to figure out how to convert this into consistent production and I understand you'll get a splash on his L it is 738 OPS whatever.

He was what 18 years old so say he was so I'm now breaking my brand in terms of age yeah you're good 17 years old at the start of the season right or no 18 years old season 18 years old at the start of the season in 25.

And 17 year before that but 18 years old for half more than half the year at low a and high a and holding his own also proving that he can catch two and he's come a long way there think the blocking receiving these to get a little bit better but I still think off the arm strength alone.

This kid's going to be able to be a 45 grade catcher I mean the part that is most slept on with Thai is the exit velocities he's already capable of.

It's such a sweet swing from the left side and last year he popped four eggs of four bad at balls north of 110 he had 114 mile per hour Homer he hit 112 mile an hour Homer 111 hour Homer and then a laser beam at 112 straight at a center filters head.

How much more could be in there like this guy might be popping one 17's one 18's as he becomes an actual man.

So I feel like that's a part that's really being slept on like this is potential 70 wrong for his age it is 70 raw from the left side with back to ball that is fine it was 81% zone contact rate 75% overall and that was I think the most slept on part with Thai is he spoils tough pitches to 63% out of zone contact rate so the biggest thing for him is going to be cutting down on that 37% chase rate and developing as a catcher so you're telling me the biggest variables for tight is developing the finer things to catch her he's a laser beam 70 arm.

And being more patient.

Let those be the two biggest variables for this kid I that I think is what makes him so highly touted for me and 19 year old is going to get a second taste of high a this coming year and maybe maybe the

assignment aggressively who knows just needs to be more patient and get better blocking and receiving I feel pretty good about his chances of doing that.

I dig it that's our clumping 70 to 56 55 to 41 next.

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