9/1/26: Army Official Resigns, China Screw You To Trump, Bond Market Chaos, Trump Defends Data Centers, GOP Panic Over Midterms

0:00This is an I Heart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman. I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle. I choose option B. I'm Julie Pinero and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first. I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility. Listen to Solita on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. I survived nine months in captivity and I've spent my life exploring how other people survive what should have destroyed them. I'm Elizabeth Smart and these are the survivor files. Every week I'm with survivors who live through the unthinkable. Abducted, stalked, controlled and nearly silenced.

1:00These are stories about what it takes to make it out alive. Listen to the survivor files with Elizabeth Smart on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. If you're a bookshelf and you're a for you page are equally important to your personality, welcome home. Pro Society is a weekly podcast that's part book club, part group chat for anyone who thinks pride and prejudice and love island deserve the same level of discourse. Each week we're connecting the dots between books, the internet and pop culture. With your favorite writers, book talk creators and plenty of over thought opinions. Yeah, I'm just so obsessed. Listen to pro society on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of the show. This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important to you, please go to breakingpoints.com, become

2:00a member today and you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox. We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you at breakingpoints.com. Good morning everybody. Happy Tuesday, having an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal? What do we do? The Army Secretary has resigned after warning Trump directly about the strain the Iran War is putting on the military. So very interesting, palace intrigue there. Putin meets with G at an important summit of world leaders. We'll tell you what that means for the world going forward. Global bond sell-off continues this morning. Stock markets looking very shaky. We have Trump saying, if you don't like data centers, you are poor and backwards. So that'll be news to a lot of our viewers out there, I believe. New leaked audio reveals just how screwed Republicans think that they are for the midterms. We've got some new interesting polls on that as well. And the main character himself, Hassan Piker, is going to join us live to tell us directly

3:02what he thinks of all of these relentless attacks against him. So that should be good too. It'll be fun. We've got a few questions for her, Hassan. Got a few questions for her. All right. Thank you to everybody who's been subscribing to our show breakingpoints.com. Of course, we have our free month trial that is going on right now, which executes right at checkout. You're going to want to take advantage, especially today, because the Hassan block is last, which means it's going to go out much later. If you want to watch it earlier, you can go ahead and sign up and get access to the full show. So there you go, breakingpoints.com, completely unedited. And our AMA will happen tomorrow with Ryan Emily, the coveted Ryan and Emily AMA. In addition, if you're watching this on YouTube, please hit subscribe to our YouTube channel. If you're listening to the podcast, please share an episode with a friend who really helps other people find the show. And as Crystal said, let's go ahead and start with the situation in Iran. President Trump yesterday, although this did not eventually come true, had been blustering to reporters, Fox News included. How about who he's going to hit Iran hard? And this comes on the heels of some more strikes in the straight of our moves that just

4:05happened a few hours ago. Here's what he had to say. Yeah, Lawrence. Good morning. I just spoke with President Trump who told Fox News the United States will respond to the Iranian attack on U.S. forces overnight in Jordan. The president said we're going to hit them hard. There will be a response. He indicated that all of the missiles, except one were intercepted by U.S. air defense systems. One missile was identified as not going to hit anything significant. And they allowed it to pass through the airspace. This comes as the president said, the Iranians want to meet so badly, but he doesn't know if you can count on them to make a deal, but added that the current U.S. sanctions against the Iranian regime are kicking in strongly. But again, the headline here, President Trump telling Fox News that the United States will respond to this attack on U.S. forces in Jordan overnight. That was the attack that we covered yesterday. In addition, that immediately was followed by our handy dandy Barack Reveed report. You can almost set your watch by it every 30 days. Let's put it up here on the screen. Trump is now weighing limited strikes against Iran to curb or moves attack.

5:09The plan developed over the past week by the Central Command and supported by Secretary Hegseth has not yet been approved, but would consider limited strikes just in the straight of her moves to prevent Iran from reconstituting its radar and missile capabilities to attack ships. Now, let's really sit with that sentence. Reconstituting radar and missile capabilities to attack ships. The same radar and missile capabilities that we are told on an almost daily basis do not exist and that have been obliterated. Yet, oh, and by the way, we were even told there's no more minds that are left in the straight of her moves, except the only reason that the bombs had to go off two days ago was to stop more minds from entering the straight of her moves that even say, sent comments now be concerned about Iran's efforts to rebuild radar, air defense, anti-ship missiles in the straight to target even more ships accurately. One incident that raised significant concern in recent days was an Iranian anti-aircraft missile toward a US F-35 fighter jet that was providing cover to ships in the straight,

6:12which means nothing has changed since the day of the ceasefire when an F-35 was actually clipped and reminder that it already had been clipped once before by the Houthis, when it was forced to take evasive action almost two years ago at this point. So their missile capabilities and their military capabilities, if they are able to come that close to an F-35 today, that means that the degradation that has all been promised, both from the war itself and in the interim, has not materialized. Period, it is a stunning display actually of weakness on the United States military's part. Yeah, there are reports as well that Iran was able to take out yet another MQ-9 drone, which seemed to be fairly credible additional reports of some damage in Jordan that is unconfirmed. We'll basically never know because we don't get any good information. You can't trust anyone involved, so who's to say what exactly is going on there? But there's a lot to say about where we are right now, including there was quite a quote there in that report that you pulled out immediately.

7:12They say that the strategy is that we're going to quote unquote, mothalon with regards to Iran. Now where have you heard that before? That has long been the description Israel has used to describe their policy vis-à-vis Gaza, where every now and again they have to go in and murder some people and blow some things up to put the Palestinian population in their place. Full Israelification of the United States and the United States military happening under the Trump regime, I don't think there's any doubt about it. It appears that their view is that they can try to put this on the back burner. For many Americans, this has already slipped from the headlines, even as they're experiencing the impact of the Iran war at the gas pump and also in the grocery store every single day. But their strategy seems to be, let's just try to push this off. We'll do a little bit of action here, a little bit of action there that doesn't grab headlines and see if we can muddle through. So far, Iran seems to be basically accepting that reality. They struck back in a proportional way.

8:14They did not seek to escalate. They have not continued strikes, although two oil tankers appear to have been hit in the street of Formos. We don't know exactly what the circumstances were or whether it was Iran, whether they hit mines or what exactly happened there. But in any case, Iran does not look to be escalating to an extraordinary degree at this point. And it's a little bit perplexing because they are suffering. There is no doubt about it. Their economy is in shambles. There is a lot of discontent. There's reports now of gas lines beginning to form in Tehran and other major cities. Inflation is through the roof. So they are being squeezed economically. That part is working. They have not been able to export any of their oil. So they're missing out on that oil revenue. To me, a question of what their plan is, what their limitations are, they may be greater than we have thought in the past. Or if they're waiting for an opportune moment to take the next move on the chest part. I do think so. I spoke with some people yesterday who have been in touch with the Iranian regime. Their understanding is that right now they are still, so I actually had no idea.

9:16Some of the constituted oil, which is in those estimates that are put out by the Trump administration actually includes Iranian oil. So that means one of the reasons why Tehran is not trying to disrupt things as much as possible is because in fact, we're probably abiding too much US propaganda. Some of their oil is making it out, meaning they're getting paid. So actually some dollars are currently flowing into their coffers. It's not as bad as originally I thought. Now you're absolutely right. The rationing is happening. But what I didn't realize is that the amount of oil that they're able to sell on the market right now is not zero, despite what the Trump administration said. So that actually kind of made me rethink why they haven't decided to strike. The second thing, and this comes down to the Mothalon strategy, makes it, in my opinion, even more likely that we're going to see a escalation is because one of the things that Mothalon actually comes to mind is it was a catastrophically horrific, strategic decision on the Israelis' part because their belief was Hamas can be managed, these Palestinians

10:17can get up at the end of every once in a while, you've got to go kill a few thousand of them and then return back. They never would have envisioned that Hamas would be able to not only double, triple down, but then be able to mount October 7th, which that strategic logic of October 7th is we needed, and I'm not justifying it. I'm saying that they had it to do such a shocking display of being able to break through the enemy, to show that they can no longer just come in and do whatever they want to them at a very limited basis. They wanted to bring them in for some sort of final battle. The point though is that Mothalon is the definition of forever war. It is the definition also of a failed strategy whenever it comes to the Israelis and how they viewed, quote, managing Hamas. In this case, and that's if you accept this is some grand strategic threat, obviously you and I would have said, okay, Mothalon is not working. You guys need to come to an actual deal between the two of you saying here, whenever it comes to the US and Iran. At the same time, the strategic logic is so easy for St. Common for the Hegseth to push

11:20because number one, it keeps them in the driver's seat because the longer they're in the driver's seat, they get the ego boost, they get all the dollars that are flowing. I mentioned the F-35. You'll be happy to know that Lockheed Martin just informed Congress yesterday that the price of the F-35 has gone up by 10%, and that 10% is, quote, for necessary repair. 10% of hundreds of billions, you can all guess where all that's going into a bunch of mansions in Northern Virginia. Inflation, it's inflation, guys, it's just inflation, like everywhere else in our economy. You also- I'm curious for your view of what I've been thinking about is I wonder if this conflict does have some additional dimensions that echo the Russia-Ukraine war where in the early days of Russia invades Ukraine and they get smacked in face. Ukraine is way more capable than they thought. They're fighting with outdated techniques. They're kind of in disarray. It's very humiliating and embarrassing for them.

12:20Remember covering all those things are tanks getting stuck. Totally, yeah. And then, all of this. Now, over time, Russia has learned and they have adapted and so they were able to take more territory and be more on the front foot. Now it's more or less a stalemate, but with Russia having the upper hand at this point, I wonder if there is a similar dynamic that plays out here. We got smacked in the face, but our leaders are pretty stupid, but they are capable of learning something from this and seem to be attempting to adapt their techniques as well. It could be a similar dynamic where it's not that Iran is able to fully defeat us and assert their will indefinitely that there is some learning that happens on the US side and some adjustment that at least leads it to kind of a stalemate situation, which basically what we're in right now. Very true, however, several key differences. It is literally, I mean, this is kind of a weird thing to say, but there are, like, nations have characters, right? And the character of Russia in all of its history is we do something incredibly stupid.

13:23We lose a ton of men. We are humiliated on the world stage. We retrench. We have mass social chaos. However, it usually dies down. Then we triple quadruple down. We put everything in and we win in the most brutal and bloody way possible. It happened in the Second World War, Operation Barbarossa happened in the First World War, although, of course, it had the Bolshevik Revolution. But my point just being that if you look over the course of their history, their acceptance for massive casualty, the bar on that is it's a world you and I cannot even conceive of. Where 20% of your population gets killed or in this case is hundreds of thousands of casualties. I mean, the United States socially erupted over 50,000 deaths in Vietnam. They're looking at many orders of magnitude higher than that and nothing is happening. Well, and I do think that is the biggest difference is the Russian population, whether we like or not, they supported the war. You know, there was, I mean, as far as we could tell, there was a high degree of support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

14:24And with the Iran war, there was very low American support, public support. There was very little effort, even a propaganda is us into supporting the war. They're still desperately trying to land on some narrative. Trump is back to talking about the dead protesters again. Now the numbers up to 100,000. Yeah, it's 100 came up. He's climbing up. We can double. We can say how much he cares deeply about Iranian civilians from his actions in this war. But I do think you're right. That is a key difference is there's just not the same political horizon for Trump, which is something that the Iranians have spoken out about wanting to capitalize on that they believe even as much as he blusters about not really caring about what happens in the midterms, that delivering a humiliating political blow to him will be as important as any other tactic that they could deploy in this war. Right. And I'll give, you know, even World War II. Everybody has this idea that the United States was like so unified over World War II. And don't, you know, get me right, I lost 400, 400,000 Americans died in the war.

15:26But by the end, whenever victory was close, there was serious pressure on the Roosevelt administration. And this is a war where what, 98% of the public supported. They're like, hey, we need to wrap this up with true men. That's part of the reason why they decided to do the atomic bomb is there's like there is no appetite whatsoever for a Pacific invasion of the islands of Japan, which could potentially 1.5, 2 million men. We would take 100,000 of casualties. In fact, you know, the island campaign and the bloody toll that happened in Iwo Jima and Okinawa, that shocked people, especially after VE Day. They're like, wait, we're still losing all of these people. So like the character of our nations is dramatically different. And that was in a war where again, the vast majority of the US population supported the war and supported the aims. Even they were like these casualties are too many. And if you look at it at a percent basis compared to what the other allies in the war suffered, it's nothing, right? Compared to what these nations actually like between Britain and the Soviet Union. So my only point is just we are a nation which democratically can support over

16:29the tolerate casualties, but we always need constant reassurance like this thing is going to end in an eventual manner. And that's why generally Iran has the strategic, like it has the strategic offense on its side because it's able to exploit these already existing divisions just like the North Vietnamese or the Korean War. Another area for gotten conflict here in the United States where dramatic public opinion turns against the war and is like we need this thing to wrap up because there's no end in sight and these high-minded stopping communism only to a certain extent. Are we going to sit there and are we going to take it same with what's happening in Iran? Let's get to A8 because you mentioned this at the top. Very important actually. Dan Driscoll, who's the US Army Secretary resigned yesterday, effective immediately. He said Driscoll brought up concerns with the administration surrounding army transformation and readiness and hegsets blocking those efforts specifically by firing the generals who were responsible. There's some more details that broke overnight in the Atlantic and here's what I'm going

17:31to read. Dan Driscoll brought the concerns about the future of the army directly to President Trump in his resignation. A sign of the tensions between the two leaders. Trump was surprised when Driscoll told him how many generals top officers fired, pushed out or passed over promotion. Driscoll argued the army could not transform itself the way that it needs to because of the departure of so many leaders added that Trump had expressed concern about the deep cuts to army leadership. Driscoll's personal appeal to Trump was directly to stop Hegsets meddling in the army. This again, a conceined kind of Byzantine. But Dan Driscoll is somebody who was very close with the vice president in law school. So their relationship goes back decades. Everything I understand is that he was much more closer to the vice president or to me whenever it comes to his foreign policy views. He wanted to transform the US army into what you were talking about and adaption, adapting their doctrine and their fighting technique. Now again, just to get back in the little in the weeds, don't forget that Pete Hegsets

18:33very recently actually disbanded the drone unit, which is in the US army and has decided to take that away even though we're in the middle of the Iran War. So a lot of this is pissing contests, but the strategic reality of it does matter quite a bit. And some great reverence, a lot of these people are saying people who lost us the war in Afghanistan, you know, so it's not like exactly they're the world's most visionary. But what they did have was a level of professionalism and at least a knowledge, General Milley, who I have a lot of criticisms of. Remember, he was the one who said, hey, we need a cease firing Ukraine. He was very, very clear about the drone threat, which was coming. Hegsets and Driscoll's departure should be seen as a proxy both of control, but also of the inability right now to move the military forward in a time when we need absolutely radical change and not only in the midst of what's happened with the drone warfare, but like I just said, F 35 price just went up by 10%. Nobody sneezes in Washington. Yeah. We're talking about hundreds of billions like this, just lit on fire.

19:34Well, and it'd be one thing if the sense was like, oh, Hegsets is like cutting the fat from military and getting out those generals that aren't performing up to par. But we all know what this is about. It's just about a loyalty test and who he thinks is going to be under his thumb, who he thinks might have an independent bone in their body. And that was the problem with Driscoll, other, you know, quite obviously. It says his purge, this Atlantic piece says his purge, the military has been so dramatic that with Driscoll gone, the army is left without a top civilian leader, a Senate confirmed top general, a confirmed army general in charge of operations or a confirmed commander of army troops in Europe. Most of all the firings across the service over the past year, the army with more than 450,000 active duty soldiers positioned across the globe has fewer generals that at any point in recent history. So, you know, if just put yourself in the shoes of like reverse the rules, if we saw this kind of turmoil among the Iranian top military brass, we'd say, oh, they're in chaos. It's in tumble, you know, people are being fired right and left because the strategy

20:36is a disaster and heads are rolling. And so that's very much what it looks like here. You're having these internal battles. Driscoll is correct on the merits about the strain that the Iran war is putting on the military. And we now know from some of the inside reporting that Heg Seth was really instrumental in pushing for this war to begin with and saying any sort of objection that was raised about the cost and the problems and the way that Iran would respond, he would say and Cain would say, don't worry, sir, we'll figure it out. We've got it. So, now that you have someone who has been sounding the alarm and went to Trump directly with his concerns before resigning, that was unacceptable to Heg Seth that you had someone who was telling the truth about what a disaster this has been for the military. It also is what gives Trump these like psychosexual fantasies that he posts on AI. Like let's put a four up here on the screen where Trump posted this video of AI showing

21:37Carl Eiland being blown to smithereens literally like not even as high quality as like a call of duty video. But these are what we're eventually reduced to is like military victory through false image generation and not actually being able to do anything on the military side. We have like you said, I love that rule. Take a look, how would you think, remember when China fired their top general, we're like, wow, like going on. You know, what's happening here? If Russia, Ukraine just fired their top defense like a huge scandal actually in Ukraine. By the way, he's started defense tech startup, a Transel drone town. Good for him. Everybody else. So, he's going to make plenty of money, apparently from taxpayer, probably what he didn't steal. You know what to be on is we should probably look for those people. We've probably had something we're selling to be honest with you. Just saying, there's something grotesque about it. You know, you can be out of it. You're like, hey, let me go make billions of dollars. Go cash it. Anyway, especially whenever we're the ones who funded you in the first place.

22:38But okay, so we take a step back and we can see that we have turmoil at the top ranks for our military with major asset problems. The 82nd Airborne, remember when they were deployed to Iran, they just got a letter, all of them, the deployment letter leaked on Reddit where they're told you're all staying for the foreseeable future. There are some reports are actually coming out of the army already that the extension has been lined up to 2027 for the 82nd Airborne. And so they're actually finding troops that will go in replace. Some of the people who are already currently, forwardly deployed. So this thing's not wrapping up anytime soon. And the expectation from Tehran is actually this is all just a law and that after the midterms when Trump is lame ducking has nothing to lose, he's going to go all out. And I think you can see some of the steps, I'm not saying it will happen, but it is very possible that it could happen. And in the meantime, the world is changing dramatically. Yeah, no doubt about it. I mean, this should be seen in conjunction with the story we covered yesterday about the number of top military brass who issued what they call non concur with the decision to

23:43continue with the Iran war, with the characterization being it's quote unquote too much for too long. So there's just too much strain. And while yesterday's action was very limited, the engagement between the US and Iran, you know, we talked about how even that, the estimates are expended something like one sixth of our remaining stockpile of Patriot missile interceptors. So we may have a lot of old dumb bombs that we can just drop. But in terms of the long range, you know, more modern, technologically advanced munitions, you know, we're in continue to be in deep trouble with that. The problems with our sailors aboard these carriers and other warships have not been resolved that continues to be a major issue. And ultimately that does impact your ability to perform effectively if the men and women you're depending on are exhausted and underfed and, you know, contemplating suicide and having a horrible time in it. Yeah, of course, that's going to impact your ability to be able to move forward with your plans.

24:44You know, Trump and Hegseth, to them, it's all just sort of unreal. They're disconnected from it. Just, you know, Trump especially is used to just being the CEO. And if he decides he wants to do a thing, then everyone else has to figure out how to make it happen. He doesn't want to hear any objections. And so, you know, I don't, I doubt that he probably really took in what Driscoll had to say. There's a reason why Driscoll resigned immediately after taking those concerns to Trump. And he can sleep at night, at least knowing that he did what he could to raise the alarms about the concerns that he had. Right, he tried, but he's been, you know, sidelined for months now, except he's been trying to drum him out of office. Last thing I just want to mention in terms of the situation in Hormuz, let's put up a Sal's tweet up here. So Sal from what's going on with shipping has found four attacks in Hormuz just overnight that all happened. Shout out to him, by the way, and subscribe to his channel. But you can see that the firing at four of those distinct ships all in the straight of Hormuz, you can see that Iran is not stepping back anytime soon and that the very

25:46least are trying to exert even more pressure, which is currently working. I believe that the price of oil spiked continue to go up today. So sitting around $92 a barrel and Brent crude. So it remains, you know, pretty high, even with not a ton of kinetic action happening. But the reason why it went back up was the general sense that this is going to continue in this direction. But as I said about a changing world, the Shanghai cooperation organization meeting is happening right now in Kyrgyzstan and there's a lot of interesting updates are coming out of it. Let's get to it. When I was 14 years old, I was kidnapped and health captive for nine months. I survived and I've spent my life exploring how other people survive what should have destroyed them. I'm Elizabeth Smart and these are the survivor files. I just remember this low taunting voice next to my ear saying, shut up, don't say anything. Every week I'm with survivors who lived through the unthinkable.

26:47I knew if he woke up without a doubt he was going to hurt me. I started feeling that there was someone at the end of my bed and I just started screaming. They are abducted, stalked, controlled and nearly silenced. But these aren't stories about what's taken from them. Their story is about what it takes to make it out alive. Listen to the survivor files with Elizabeth Smart on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman. I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle. I choose option B. I'm Julie Beniero and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first. I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility. Every time I tried to be alone I kept meeting people and they were like, you smiled at us,

27:51not a lot of people smile around here. It's when you're alone that you're most receptive to the world as it is and not the lies you're sold about it. It can be a time where you push your limits, change your mind or wake up to a new version of yourself. So whether you're a solo travel veteran or you're too nervous to book your first trip, I hope you listen to Solita on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. If you're bookshelf and you're for you page are equally important to your personality, welcome home. This is Pro's Society, the weekly podcast that's part book club, part group chat for thought daughters, pop culture obsessives and anyone who thinks pride and prejudice and love island deserve the same level of discourse. I'm Eli Rallo and every week we're connecting the dots between books, the internet and the conversations everyone can't stop having. I'm going to have to look up this story. I'm obsessed. So obsessed. I'm bestselling authors and your favorite book talk creators to the latest pop culture

28:52moments. Nothing is off the table. So like if you can hide some real messages inside compelling characters and that is a Trojan horse, whether you're looking for literary deep dives, smart pop culture conversations or a community of readers who love to think a little too much, you're in the right place. Listen to Pro's Society on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. I see you between the pages. Turning now to the SEO, which is currently happening in Kyrgyzstan. Let's put this up for your biggest news has come out of the meeting so far. So it's a major summit organized by the great powers in Asia. Iran is actually party right now to this meeting and the president, Peshachon, actually issued a statement on the sidelines there this morning saying, quote, if the United States returns to its commitments in the memorandum of understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately reciprocate. The reason why I think that this is important is that this is happening obviously at the same meeting with the gathering of some of the world's most powerful powers and these

29:56powers, many are directly in most cases opposed to the United States. Let's go to the next one just to show you a little bit of how things have changed. Even since our last SEO and in many cases over the years, you see here the New York Times Analysis, the summit with Russia, India and Iran shows leverage wars have given Xi of China. And I noticed this very at the very beginning of the SEO, which is getting zero coverage really in our Western media, even though you have the gathering of China and India here. So two of the world's most popular countries, almost a third of the entire global population. You have two of the antagonists in the war, which the West is currently at war with. Russia and Iran, which are both present and having meetings, what the Times points to is how China is using this SEO summit currently in Kyrgyzstan as a direct picture of what multi polarity and its world leading a world leading status looks like. Right before it comes to the United States, President Xi will be here sometime next

31:00month. He's going to do some tours, going to do some big meetings with Donald Trump. But the SEO summit this time around is to flex and I read through all of their official communicates. They consistently say we are committed to a rising bricks. We are committed to mutual respect in a multi polar world. We are committed to international law as they like to see it. But what you see even more clearly actually is the continuing realignment of the region to wards China. So they point to Xi has bailed out Putin from many of the economic sanctions the West put upon him. They've been able to flood the consumer goods and the banking system in Russia to provide them a lifeline. India though is in my opinion the most interesting part of the summit because India of course long time has juggled its relations between Russia, China and the United States. They really want to be a center power which is beholden to nobody. But what they see here is that India has taken upon itself a role of we are going to do solely what's good for us sometimes and including right now.

32:01That means kind of saying screw you to the United States. You actually saw this directly. The very first day of the summit put B2 up here on the screen. Modi put out this picture meeting with the Iranian President Peshakhan in Bishkak. He says we reiterated our commitment to strengthening India's longstanding friendship with Iran. Across diverse sectors we want to expand and diversify our trade basket in the times to come. We had a discussion on the pre-aligned situation in the region. India continues to support all efforts aimed at ensuring a lasting peace. And he again, he elicit in Hindi and in Farsi. The point though that you see is smiling picture of the two of them meeting on the sidelines, diversifying our trade basket, not backing down from the purchases of future Iranian oil and their longstanding commitments. You also saw China continuing to push the line both with Russia and Iran of multi polarity and strengthening their own system. So nothing earth shaking has come out of the meeting per se, but I feel like not enough

33:05of the world is paying attention to what's happening because it's very obvious that they're using it as a grand flex. And including especially right now as the G20 finance ministers are all meeting, I believe here in the United States. The direct opposition of those two and of the rise of a new order of a new leader who's able to push things in his own direction to float the powers of Iran and of Russia and to really point to the West and say, hey, there's nothing you can do to any of us. That's the big picture that they want coming into their summit with Washington. Yeah, that's right. Creating more independence from the U.S. I mean, there's a lot to say about this with regard to that summit that's having a national North Carolina. Actually the Russian finance minister is there, which is significant. A lot of the European countries were very upset about that, but meeting directly with him. And directly with Scott Becci. So it shows you how significant Russia's position is in the world that we feel like we can't ice them out at this point. And China is a big part of the reason why Russia's economy has remained as resilient as it

34:08has. China is a big part of the reason behind the scenes that Iran has been able to perform as well as they have. And then Iran has also been beneficial to Russia. They've provided the drones that have helped Russia on the battlefield as well. So you can see in the alliance between these three countries that they are all mutually benefiting from the relationships that they have. China seems to have taken from our misadventures in the Middle East that they want to avoid getting themselves directly involved in these foreign adventures. So it's not like you're going to see them come in directly on the side of Iran or Russia or anything like that. But that doesn't mean that they're not extremely influential behind the scenes. And in particular, we've talked a lot about their impact on the oil market. They've kind of saved our ass by decreasing the amount of oil they have been importing by an extraordinary amount. We talked to Rory Johnson yesterday about how that is starting to shift. We don't know how quickly. But in any case, China has certainly shown that they have a lot of cards to play in their

35:10negotiations with us. It's a very tenuous relationship, a bit of a detente on the sort of economic warfare front between us and China. But highly significant to see all of these leaders meeting together and glimpse into the future of this alliance, which I think will continue to strengthen. And especially as Trump does everything he can to weaken the U.S. and force our allies to look at other places as well. Yeah, you were talking about Putin. Let's put B3 up here on the screens. Everything else from the journal, obviously, you know, they got their own little bias in here. But there's some factoids which are worth kind of ruminating on. So they say Putin turns again to China's Xi as Russia's clout crumbles. So he says Russia has suffered from a summer of painful strikes by Ukraine on his oil and gas industry. China has yet emerged from the global shock of the Iran War with more power over oil markets and greater resilience against the West. The shifting power status is front and center when they are meeting in Kyrgyzstan.

36:14It will be their shared resistance to U.S. power where the sidelines of the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that include Iran will give the regime a measure of added international recognition. They specifically point to, like I said earlier, the life lines, economic life lines that have thrown both to Iran and to Russia. They also point to, in some ways, this is even kind of a message to Russia itself of you come to us because Kyrgyzstan, traditionally in the Russian sphere of influence Moscow, actually, apparently. You know this has an air force base in Kyrgyzstan, but Kyrgyzstan has now begun to turn towards Beijing. So with the power going towards Beijing, it's a realignment on the continent. Also points specifically to Moscow's dependence on China, not just for the consumer goods, but also in terms of a banking system where they're able to exact and do trade outside of the Western sanctions. And so that seems to be the key point that both Iran and Russia are relying on and why both of them made kind of a big show.

37:16In addition, really to India, which is always juggerled SEO and has always looked at it a bit skeptically. They don't want to be seen necessarily as cow-towing to Chinese interests, but they want to maintain strategic balance. And I do think that coming at this time of the Iran War, one thing that we always would emphasize was with Asia. Is Japan and South Korea are solidly in our corner? They kind of have to be constitutionally and just decades long. Many else's up for grabs. Everybody else is like, I don't know, maybe China looks a little attractive. They're not starting wars. They're not driving up my gas prices. Remember, India suffered dramatically, really, in terms of the natural gas shortage that came out in the early days of the war. They had huge price spikes and actually caused real problems for them. They even had a protest movement, which we didn't end up covering, but it was pretty significant. One of the more domestic, a larger domestic protest movements in the entire history of the Modi government. Not entirely economic, but some of it is related at least to social dysfunction that's currently happening on the ground there. A lot of that can be pointed towards the United States and of course, his own leadership.

38:21So he has to figure out, you know, his main goal, like any leader of a developing nation, is like, I have to keep this engine going and belief in the future. And you can see then that they're not pointing and looking to the United States in a way that even 10 years ago, it would have been relatively unthinkable to see such an embrace of abject opponents to the USM of both Russia and Iran. That's really what I see out of this. I mean, India's had huge skirmishes and issues with China. Of course, yeah, they thought of war. Yeah, so it's a big deal to see that direct collaboration. Last thing I'll say on this, we can put before up on the series, what I referenced earlier with Besan, meaning with the Russian Finance Minister at this G20 gathering, which is, you know, we're taking worth taking note of and we'll pay attention if anything comes out of that. But we really need to pay more attention to Russia because they're looking at the same set of facts we're looking at. Were they're looking at the fact that the US is overextended that we've pulled, you know, a lot of our, a lot of things into the Middle East that we have, you know, sailors

39:26who are struggling aboard ships that we've used so much of our munitions stockpile and just are overall completely depleted and distracted. So they're trying to figure out how they can get out of this kind of grinding war that they're in that they started with Ukraine. And one thing that they're seriously contemplating is what if we expand into NATO and basically dare the US to do something about it and expose that the NATO alliance is basically dead. And I think the NATO alliance is effectively dead. Do you really think that if Russia struck inside of a NATO country that we would then go to war with Russia? Right. Do you really think that we would do that? They don't think so either. So that's another thing to keep an eye on here as Putin tries to figure out what his next move is going to be because as much as, you know, the population in Russia has gone along with the war so far and we were saying the war was really pretty supportive at the beginning and the economy has been more resilient than one would have predicted, they're still taking a lot of losses. It is brutal. It is grinding.

40:27It may be the case that there is more dissatisfaction there that we can see than we can see on the surface. So in any case, important to keep an eye on him and what he's up to and, you know, the deals that he's striking at these sorts of events. I think that the summit, it's going to be very interesting. The summit of Putin, sorry, of Xi and Trump. Trump is going to just do his app. I mean, he's going to flatter him. Yeah. But he's going to do his absolute best to get even a modicum of concession. I don't see it right now from the Chinese side. They have held firm on the secondary sanctions thing. They said, go ahead, do it. They're like, well, we'll hit you right back. You think you'll like that? You know, major trade war with us in the middle of your inflation problems. We are in a bad spot to demand really anything from them right now. And I'm very curious to see actually what comes out. Trump is going to want them to cut off Iran and to try to coerce North Korea. And why would they do that? Why would China, I mean, what do we, what leverage do we have? They have played, they have been so much more strategic in even locking up the critical

41:30supply lines that we know. We already know how this went because we tried to do the trade war with them and basically had to back down because we realized how much they could hurt our economy if push came to shove. So I don't see that that dynamic has changed if anything that dynamic has only strengthened. Mm-hmm. Agreed. All right. Let's get to the bonds market. When I was 14 years old, I was kidnapped and health captive for nine months. I survived and I've spent my life exploring how other people survive what should have destroyed them. I'm Elizabeth Smart and these are the survivor files. You just remember this low taunting voice next to my ear saying, shut up, don't say anything. Every week I'm with survivors who live through the unthinkable. I knew if he woke up without a doubt he was going to hurt me. I started feeling that there was someone at the end of my bed and I just started screaming. They are abducted, stalked, controlled and nearly silenced.

42:32But these aren't stories about what's taken from them. Their story is about what it takes to make it out alive. Listen to the survivor files with Elizabeth Smart on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. On the new podcast, Solita, we share the message. It's the reality of traveling alone as a woman. I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle. I choose option B. I'm Julie Benieto and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first. I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility. Every time I tried to be alone I kept meeting people and they were like, you smiled at us not a lot of people smile around here. It's when you're alone that you're most receptive to the world as it is and not the lies your soul about it. It can be a time where you push your limits, change your mind or wake up to a new version

43:33of yourself. So whether you're a solo travel veteran or you're too nervous to book your first trip, I hope you listen to Solita on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. If you're bookshelf and you're for you page are equally important to your personality, welcome home. This is Pro's Society, the weekly podcast that's part book club, part group chat for thought daughters, pop culture obsessives and anyone who thinks pride and prejudice and love island deserve the same level of discourse. I'm Eli Rallo and every week we're connecting the dots between books, the internet and the conversations everyone can't stop having. I'm going to have to look up this story. I'm obsessed. I'm obsessed. I'm bestselling authors and your favorite book talk creators to the latest pop culture moments. Nothing is off the table. So like if you can hide some real messages inside compelling characters and that is a Trojan horse, whether you're looking for literary deep dives, smart pop culture conversations

44:34or a community of readers who love to think a little too much, you're in the right place. Listen to Pro's Society on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. See you between the pages. This morning we are tracking a massive global bond sell off, which of course will have huge implications directly in your life. Let's go and put this up on the screen. This is something we've been following on the US side for a while. This is from the co-be easy letter. They say yields just won't stop. You know it's bad when bond market is quite literally ignoring the US treasury. That's a reference to Scott Besson's attempt to intervene in the bond market and to stop this sell off that just continues without missing a beat. 24 hours later and the 10 year note yield is now pushing into 4.8%. It's highest since January 2025. That's another plus 20 basis points since the low scene after the US Treasury's intervention announcement 13 days ago. So like I was saying before, even though the US Treasury tried to intervene in an extremely

45:37significant way, the market has just completely ignored that. In a sudden turn of events, 7% mortgages are back. The 10 year note yield is nearing 5%. Markets are expecting a September rate hike. This marks a 85 point basis point run in the 10 year note yield since the Iran War began. Once again, the US simply cannot afford the 10 year note yield at 5% for a sustained period of time. We expect further attempts at intervention immediately. But the question becomes, will markets listen? Let's go ahead and put this Wall Street Journal report up on the screen as well. One here is long-term global government bond yields hit fresh highs. The two year yield reversed an overnight decline in edge tire. Long dated bond yields reached new highs. Monday as fresh military escalation between the US and Iran lifted oil prices. 10 year treasury yield traded at 4.764% on pace for its highest settlement since January of 2025. Two year yield reversed an overnight decline edge higher reaching 4.337%. It's not just here in the US either.

46:38This is part of a global trend of the bond sell off. When bonds are sold off, you have to raise the interest rate in order to attract buyers. That's the way this works. What does this mean? What is causing it? Well, the causes are quite numerous. But one of the causes here in the US is the concerns about inflation. You also have the concerns about the continue to run war about our overall stability as the nation about the high level of debt. And the other piece you have, Soger, is because there is so much demand for cash right now for the AI build out. That is part of what is crowding out investment in US treasuries. The impact that it has on your life, this impacts all interest rates that you would have to pay if you're borrowing money, if you're especially mortgage rates in particular housing affordability, obviously, being a massive, massive issue. And then it makes our debt even more unsustainable that it already is. I've never been a fiscal hawk. The debt is going to kill us and we're going to have a crisis type of person.

47:40We're in a different world now though, but both because of the size of the debt, which is only escalated under the Trump administration has been driven by numerous tax cuts for the rich over the years. But also because as the world moves away from the dollar as a reserve currency, that changes the dynamic makes it a lot easier, less easy for us to deal with this level of debt to service. So as those interest rates go up, that makes that debt so much more of a burden on our society. Yeah, I did not realize how actually crazy this is in terms of the international situation. So we're obviously nearing 2006 levels. But here's what the rest of the world is. 10 year Japan, 3% for the first time since 96, British 10 year, highest since mid-07, German, highest since 2011. Those are bad years that I remember, especially in the German case. I remember I was in college at that time. I remember the whole discussion, they're like, oh, the euro's hell, it's going to blow up in Greece and all of the crazy protests that were happening. Obviously, the German Japanese, they've had a crazy situation with interest rates for

48:42quite some time. But the British at 2007 and the United States now minuting 2006, similar situation here with the United States 2006 were bogged down an unpopular war. We got a president in here all time low. We have high gas prices. In fact, the highest gas price of all time inflation adjusted is right around 2008. So you could see how we can mimic those same social conditions. The AI stuff is fascinating. But the biggest problem, as you were talking about with debt, is, and I have the numbers right here, gross national debt is 40 trillion. That's 120% of GDP. Japan's national debt is now more than twice as size of its overall economy. France's public debt is now 117% of GDP. And right now, there is no French bond yields have now climbed above Italy's, which is apparently an unprecedented situation in Europe because France economy is normally seen as some sort of a safe haven. So you put it all together. You have a declining Western international picture for their economy. The bond yields are squeezing people from both sides.

49:45So you have high cost of living and high inflation on top of very, very high borrowing costs. Then you also have the fluctuation for the mortgage rates and for saving CDs, all those other things. And especially the biggest impact on the consumer from what we understand is that it will stop any not speculative growth per se, but small business borrowing costs, which is the lifeline of the economy and predominantly the people who will hire or fire based on interest rates. Those are the people who have to pull back the most. And it means that the big guys, AI companies, especially who can afford the high interest debt are the only ones who will be able to borrow. So it gives a lot of top heavy control to the corporations that are currently in control. Yeah, that's right. Japan is a very interesting example because they've had this very unique economic situation where they've had interest rates at zero for decades. They've had no inflation. So wages, prices, everything has stayed the same. And so under those conditions, when you have 0% interest rates, guess what? It's not a big deal if your debt level is very high because you're not paying high interest

50:50on that. So they could handle that. They have the highest, some of the highest debt level in terms of the developed world. Now that interest rates are going up, oh, suddenly, this comes at a price. Suddenly, this is going to be something we're actually going to have to reckon with. And with the US, it's the same. We're in a different position because the dollar continues to be the world's reserve currency that gives us what has been described as an exorbitant privilege. How long does that last? Is that an indefinite situation? That's a big question. But as we pour more and more and more money into a military, which is failing dramatically on the battlefield, and we leverage our future in order to do so and are racking up these huge amounts of debt. As the interest rate takes up, that just becomes more and more difficult for us to deal with. Don't worry, though. Scott Bessent says that the US bond market is just fine and there's nothing to worry about. Let's go ahead and hear that. The US, the bond market is the most resilient in the world. And let's just level sit here for a minute, Sarah. Everyone's talking about the US bond market.

51:51US bond market this month will have been the best performing bond market. The 30 year, the yield is down. The 10 year, the yield is flat. No other major bond market can say that. We are, the 10 year yield is flat since President Trump came in. And I'm not hung up on what rating agencies say, but two weeks ago, Fitch reaffirmed the US rating. That was an inconvenient truth, so it didn't get any publicity. So, and if there were a problem in the US bond market, Sarah, then people would be selling US bonds and buying other country's bonds, but we are the best performing market. I mean, it's technically true. Yeah, that's right. That is a problem that is sort of a global issue and certainly in the West, but the indication that our allies are doing even worse than we are is not necessarily the own that you think that it is. Yes, exactly. Put the next one up here on the screen. This one was interesting too, as well, in terms of explaining the Fed. So what they talk about here, Kevin Worsh, the Federal Reserve Chairman, has said he wants

52:56bond investors to react to underlying changes in the economy, rather than commentary from the Central Bank. But right now, they are doing the opposite. When he became chairman, the three largest daily moves in the Treasury's yield curve have followed his appearances. What that means as to why it all matters is that he obviously, not only was Donald Trump's pick, but he's also one where he's got some impetus right now where he needs both, he has a directive from Trump to cut rates because that's what Trump desperately wants. Trump said yesterday we could have 20% GDP growth if we just brought interest rates down. Which I don't know has ever happened in the US maybe one time, like ever, since World War II. So that's 20%. In fact, if you have 20% of economic growth, it's usually a problem. That means you come out of a great depression or something. The point though that they were making was that Worsh has talking about inflation is not slowing. Policy makers, quotes must be confident because the Central Bank has work to do, meaning

53:57it's currently priced in that he's more likely to raise interest rates. And that means apparently what it's doing is it's pushing the bond yield curve in exactly the direction that they don't want it to go right now. The only point that we're putting this is that it's not just the global situation with what's happening with Iran and of course just like weakening faith and overall Western economies. It's not just the AI build out. It's also the trouble with the Federal Reserve Chairman and his mandate to try to deal with inflation. It's just all a bad situation which puts, I mean, it's a morass trying to get anything done right now in the economy. Especially for anybody who's trying to buy home because price is alone. I mean, 6.7% interest rates, it's just nuts. I don't even know what you do at that point. Every Central Bank in the world is basically facing the same situation because normally when you have inflation as we're having and it's likely to only escalate because of the Iran War and also other factors. And in particular because of the Iran War, what do you do?

54:58You hike rates if you're a president of a Central Bank. So that would though also increase the bond yields and increase those interest rates. So they're stuck in a very difficult position. If you lower rates, then you get that economic growth that Trump is after, but you also help to fuel further inflation. So that's the bind that basically every Central Banker in the world is facing right at this point. So that's what's going on in the economy that we wanted to flag for you. So let's see for up on the screen. Corporate profits are doing great guys. So don't you worry about them. They're doing just fine. And there's a number of factors here. One of them is that you have homeowners whose home prices are still very high. So they have a lot of equity. So they're able to continue to spend. But a significant chunk of this increase in corporate profits is because of the tariff refunds, which we covered previously, but companies that paid the tariffs originally, now

56:02they are getting checks from the federal government. And that is helping to juice their profit level, even as very few of them are issuing any refunds to the consumers who paid that price on the back and through increased prices. So consumers really bore the brunt of the tariff cost, but it's these large corporations who are having their profit margins padded thanks to the tariff refunds. So it's just incredible in the American economy. It seems like no matter what happens, big corporations at the end of the day always reap the benefit. Yeah, they're like, well, the American incredible consumer, the ever resilient US consumers fueling the heftiest rise in big company profits in years. But the tariff refund is a significant part of that too. I mean, they give all kinds of examples. Garmin got a $21 million tariff refund, which boosted their margins late quarter. You had Costco, you had Walmart, Dollar General, apparently had a similar actual boom, apparently. Best Buy said it's shoppers are still continuing to buy up computers, TVs, and AI enabled glasses,

57:09which I would personally. Oh, and that's it. Yeah, the meta glasses. They need to go. They need to go. You see somebody wearing them, throwing them in the trash. It includes you, Dad. I was watching. So a widely watched measure of consumer confidence, as we have right now, is, because slipped dramatically. Obviously, this consumer sentiment, it was a huge impact on Bratio Biden and his presidency. We covered it day in and day out whenever it was happening, because it was like month over month in 2022. That's exactly when Trump or when Biden's chances really started to slip beyond even the conversations around his age, consumer sentiment and inflation sank his presidency. And obviously, almost certainly one of the main reasons why Kamala ends up losing the election and the popular vote. And so you actually see that consumer sentiment, which has been in freefall since Trump took office, especially in the last six months, has now fallen for the first time actually in three months of a worsening economic outlook.

58:12And what they say is that the final reading is roughly around the median estimate, even for where things currently are. But what it does show is that you have a darkening economic picture for the overall US consumer, heading now into the most important quarter for the entire US retail industry. So I feel like we talk about this every year, is that holiday season, especially in retail. In some cases, many of these brands, between 40 to 80% of their entire year sales will happen during the holiday season. It gets cold and people go nuts buying Christmas gifts. Well, if you see even a five, six percent reduction, that's a disaster to the bottom line of a lot of these places. Now, what they're saying, the company is, well, the overall spending is at least remaining where it is. But I cannot just believe in price sensitivity. For example, I have to go to a cross country wedding in a few months. I've had a kid so I haven't done any cross country airfare. So it's been like two years since I bought something holy shit.

59:17When I bought that flight, I could not believe the jet fuel surcharge of what it looks like. This is, I mean, I'm telling you to fly to California, two people, I'm talking an economy class ticket. We are, look, it's like $1,000. Insanity. And even looking out for in the future, and I was looking at that, I go, there's no way that you can just expect vacation costs and all this other stuff to remain the same. If you're a family of four or family of six or something, forget about it, man. You might as well drive three days or just not go. Period. So that type of stuff, there's just intuitive and obvious to me is going to crush consumer spending. And by the way, travel is a key part of the Thanksgiving and the Christmas holidays as well. And I can't be the only one, especially when you're looking at those and me like, I don't know about this. So you look at the bill, it's triple what it used to be. And that is going to be, I mean, there's just, there, eventually, price sensitivity just has to set in for a huge portion of the economy. Yeah. Corporate well-being has completely divorced from consumer and general American well-being.

1:00:21I think they used to be tied more closely together in the past, but it's just not reality anymore. And it's become even more divorced from corporate well-being when AI is more fully implemented into the whole situation because as companies figure out how to deploy AI in a way where they can reduce their workforce, then you have directly adversarial relationship between corporate profit levels and your average American. So something on the floor too in the future, guys. That's exactly right. Oh, it's good to have the centers. When I was 14 years old, I was kidnapped and health captive for nine months. I survived. And I've spent my life exploring how other people survive what should have destroyed them. I'm Elizabeth Smart, and these are the survivor files. I just remember this low-taunting voice next to my ear saying, shut up, don't say anything. Every week, I'm with survivors who lived through the unthinkable. I knew if he woke up, without a doubt, he was going to hurt me.

1:01:24I started feeling that there was someone at the end of my bed, and I just started screaming. They are abducted, stalked, controlled, and nearly silenced. But these aren't stories about what's taken from them. Their story is about what it takes to make it out alive. Listen to the survivor files with Elizabeth Smart on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman. I can wait four hours for the next bus, or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle. I choose option B. I'm Julie Piñero, and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes, without asking anyone else first. I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility. Every time I tried to be alone, I kept meeting people, and they were like, you smile good, that's not a lot of people smile around here.

1:02:26It's when you're alone that you're most receptive to the world as it is and not the lies you're sold about it. It can be a time where you push your limits, change your mind, or wake up to a new version of yourself. So whether you're a solo travel veteran or you're too nervous to book your first trip, I hope you listen to Solita on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. If you're bookshelf and you're for you page are equally important to your personality, welcome home. This is Pro's Society, the weekly podcast that's part book club, part group chat for thought daughters, pop culture obsessives, and anyone who thinks pride and prejudice and love island deserve the same level of discourse. I'm Eli Rallo, and every week we're connecting the dots between books, the internet, and the conversations everyone can't stop having. I'm going to have to look up this story. I'm obsessed, so obsessed. I'm bestselling authors and your favorite book talk creators to the latest pop culture moments. Nothing is off the table.

1:03:27It's like if you can hide some real messages inside compelling characters and that is a Trojan horse, whether you're looking for literary deep dives, smart pop culture conversations, or a community of readers who love to think a little too much, you're in the right place. Listen to Pro's Society on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I see you between the pages. Turning now to data centers, Donald Trump weighing in on the data center issue, you would expect to the man who won the popular vote to try to always pick the right side of an 80-20 issue. And yet, let's put this one up here on the screen. He says, this was totally unprompted, by the way. The only reason that communities throughout the USA should not want data centers is if they want to end up being backwards and poor. If they want to be successful and rich with far lower taxes and jobs all over the place, let data rain, data and rain being capitalized. The good news is that there are plenty of other places that want them.

1:04:29If we want to kill the golden goose, capitalized, you will have only yourselves to blame. China could not be happier with this anti-AI data center movement. Actually, they can't believe it is happening. President Donald J. Trump. And you might ask, how are his supporters taking the news? And usually I don't do the comments thing. I think it's unfair, just because of the 99-9-1 rule on the internet. But I think you're going to reasonably assume people who have a truth social account and post on the platform are Trump die hearts. Can we assume that? More likely than that. Yeah, I mean, not even that. It's like what? 99%? 99.9%. Yeah. So let's take a look at some of the replies on Trump's again, own platform. You have lost your mind. You'll be known as the president and three mason who single handedly destroyed a nation. God help you. What about our water supply? I regret ever supporting you guys. Just keep these up. I want to read a lot of them. This statement is insane.

1:05:30I am already on water restriction. You are an idiot. You'll be a money maker, I suspect. Meanwhile, our lives get shittier with no water and more noise. Perhaps better messaging is in order. No one agrees with this, sir. Our center centers are a gateway for the market of the beast and total control. We love you. I am MAGA. That will always support you. I hate communism. I understand they have convinced you. This is right. That is a lie. We the people want to be free and have freedom and trust God in this constitution. We do not want control and surveillance. Those things promote communism. The people are awake to be convinced otherwise. Black woman on with that one. I mean, this is what I think he's right. Let's discuss the power consumption issue, horrendous messaging. I'd rather have clean water and less surveillance. You mean snapping lines so mean my buddies can make more money while we use all your water electricity and create an ongoing sound that will drive you insane. I love you, DJT, but if you are concerned about windmills destroying birds and constant humming, then you need to go visit a neighborhood with a data center beside it. In Florida, where aquifer is so fragile and water is so expensive, data centers are a

1:06:33real threat. The reason we have no data center signs in our yard is because we don't want electrical and water shortage plain and simple, fixed this and bring them on not to mention the constant hum put one next to Mar-a-Lago. That's a smattering of some of the replies that we have seen here. Despite, I will say, a lot of cheering from the tech community who have truly loved, truly are in love with Trump's courage, they say, that are on this issue. You also had the vice president striking what I would say is a pretty different tone when he was asked about it. Let's take a listen. What the president said about data centers is they are an important part of the AI economy. When people build them, they have to build the power plants along with the data centers. I think probably 99% of the backlash to data centers has come in areas where building a data center means higher utility and higher electricity for the people on the ground. I think what these companies have to do is take advantage of some of the federal derogatory efforts that we've undertaken. If you build the data center, you should be putting power back into the grid, not taking

1:07:36it out. If that is happening, I don't think the data centers are that controversial. It's when the utility bills get so much higher, that's when it's a real problem. I think that that was a very different tone as what I would say. You also see how they're trying to fuel their way through this because the administration is the most pro-AI administration probably in the entire world. I'm genuinely, I can't even think of a single other leadership or government, which is this pro-AI. They also have an alliance mostly with the tech industry of convenience, which is floating the entire US economy and all of our GDP growth, which is all this data center spend. So they need it to continue. At the same time, every Republican politician who is in a remotely competitive race is lining up against data centers. Mike Rogers, data center, moratorium, Greg Abbott, data center, moratorium, Ken Paxton, data center, moratorium. Even the popular governors, people who have no chance at losing their election are just

1:08:40making sure that their flank is covered. Josh Shapiro, who is against now, data centers, and said he's going to hold up all of their development. I mean, I could go on the, Ron DeSantis talking about data centers. Byron Donnell is looking like he's going to be, where he said some interesting things on data centers also come out against flock cameras. For example, I mean, we're talking about this stuff. Really, it's like a bottom to top level uprising, which is across the nation. We're going to talk about midterms here in a second. I was told, and I think you were out for this, the Texas conversation, the Ryan and I had, I was told that the data center issue, if Greg Abbott is going to lose and especially Paxton, it will almost certainly be because of depressed Republican rural turnout in West Texas. West Texans furious about the data center issue. In particular, that's why, remember we played that Texas Agricultural Commissioner, that's why he was on television on Fox News nonetheless, attacking the sitting governor who is a Republican

1:09:41running, obviously for reelection at unprecedented fourth term. And he's like, oh, he's bought out by the data center industry. Ken Paxton similarly had to come out and put out his like data center rights. Talleriko is hammering him on that. I genuinely cannot think of a single Republican in a remote swing district, which is even, you know, even sniffing the do you want to be backwards and poor territory. So, you know, the data center people are like, oh, this is a messaging problem. I'm like, no, you guys have a reality problem. Yeah. Like, you really do. Well, it really is fascinating. I mean, first of all, Trump coming out and saying this, given how closely aligned all of these Republicans are to him, makes it very difficult for them to feel seem credible when they're coming out with their, oh, I'm actually against the data centers or, oh, we have to require the data centers to do X and Y and Z before they locate in communities. And I'm an as a great example, because he was singing a very different tune up until he started realizing the polling was really challenging. And then he flipped same way Shapiro did in Pennsylvania, where he was celebrating on this

1:10:45big Amazon investment in our community. We're going to lead the way on AI, not even a year later. Secondly, he is issuing very different statements and killing off the fast track regulation that was going to allow all of these data centers to pop up in Pennsylvania and more rapid clip. And you can kind of understand why the politicians got this wrong, because as long as they've been in public office, bringing jobs and economic development into a community was nothing but a net positive. So it is interesting to delve into why it is different with the data centers. And we can put D5 up on the screen. This is from David Wallace-Walls, who digs into this in particular, his headline here from the New York Times as I expect to tech fatalism Americans are putting up a remarkable fight instead. And he says basically, first of all, the polling is extraordinary. It's 70% of Americans who are opposed to these data centers. That number has climbed dramatically in a very short period of time.

1:11:46So you have this very clear, super majority. It's Republican. It's Democrat. It's old. It's young. It's black. It's white. It's rural. It's urban. Very, very rarely. Do we see this type of consensus form in American politics? So he tries to dig into, okay, what is at the root of this? Because you can point to examples like Loudoun County, Virginia here, where they have had so much tax revenue flood into their county. They've been able to build new schools and new sports facilities and lower people's taxes. You would normally think that people would look at that and say, okay, great, we want that for us too. He highlights a rural county where because of the tax revenue that came into a place that was relatively depressed, they were able to give all of their teachers $50,000 bonuses. That was more than their salary in certain instances. Now on the other side of things, Georgia just came out with a report. They're spending way more on tax credits than they're receiving in revenue. Overall in Virginia, it's the same deal. But you could imagine a world where the industry really highlights these examples and towns

1:12:46are falling over themselves to have data centers located in their vicinity, especially places that have been really economically depressed, which is many, many, many places in America, especially in rural America. So what is it that's different about this? And I think you could see in some of those responses to Trump, you could see some of the specific concerns, a lot of concerns about water. One thing I've learned working on campaigns in rural America is there's deep concerns frequently. I think Mahatuch is on this about clean water and having control over their natural resources, a sort of conservation approach to environmentalism. You see that. You obviously see concerns about the electricity rates. But I think, and this is kind of what David Wallace-Walls lands on as well, those are the things that are expressed. There really is a deeper issue. A larger protest. Right, you're going to be here. Which is, do we have democratic control in our lives, in our communities, in our country? We are so used to having everything forced down our throats specifically from the tech oligarchs, that the ability to push back at all in any small way becomes extremely, extremely

1:13:52important and very, very motivating to clearly the vast majority of Americans. There are so few places at this point where we have the ability to exercise democratic input and control and say, no, we want to say over this, data centers have become the flashpoint and the one place where we really feel like we can at least, we can at least throw some sand into the gears. Maybe it's not going to slow the thing down, but at least we can make it a little bit more difficult for them. And so even though you have communities that stand theoretically to benefit from the attacks revenue, even though that is the case, and even if you could have swaged the concerns about electricity, price hikes and water, some of which has frankly been overblown on the waterfront in particular, even if you could have swaged those concerns, people still just want to be able to say fuck you not in my community. Right, and I'm glad you started that. So the thing is, is that Karen Howe wrote that book and part, by the way, Karen, if you're watching, we've been trying to get you on the show. So I'd really like to get you here. And this is in no way like a total criticism, but you made an error in your book where she

1:14:54made a factor, a water claim about, I think it shows off by like a factor of 1,000. So that is where a lot of the concerns come from. Now, I've been in a, in a week's long fight with the data center guys, and they point, so the core disagreement is about what you said. They say incremental polling says that people are predominantly concerned over electricity, over water, and over noise. So on the waterfront, most of the water stuff is frankly bullshit. As they point to data centers, even a hyperscaler data center uses less water than a golf course. Now we should probably have left golf courses, but that's going to be separate. Concession. The second one is about electricity. In some cases, there has been evidence that data centers, the power demand has initially led to a spike. However, it leads to an updating of the grid, and particularly, you know, renewable grid, and it could lower electricity price. And I'm being honest here, although, you know, there is of course going to be some surge and potentially power demand. On the noise front, that one, I think, is the most legitimate claim, and there's many

1:15:56cases sterling Virginia right here in northern Virginia as, you know, exhibit A. However, that's eventually a solveable problem. So they're like, when we ask people what they're concerned about, that's what they say. But you and I know from having covering politics for so long, is that people are very rarely actually honest about what they're concerned about. They cling to various different types of concerns. When in reality, it is about something much deeper. So I've talked about this before, like let's say with immigration, is it about the border numbers specifically or is about the notion of sovereignty and control, right? I would say the latter, but you can't really give that option in a poll. You just have to intuit it, especially from where it's coming from. For me, what I think that much of this is coming back to, and this is what Wallace Wells points to is that it's like this crazy coalition in some cases of cranks and conspiracy theorists, in some cases of a good old fashioned NIMBs, and in some cases of just people who don't really know why, but are opposed to the technology.

1:16:59I think it's about fundamentally, it's about AI and also an indictment of technology. So I gave that example in the recent meta loss, you know, the meta settlement that happened with the state's attorney's generals, where they just have to admit more screen time has been bad. I think everyone into it's that the amount of time they spend on their phones using the internet and living a more, quote, digital future is not good for them. I think literally everyone thinks that. The data center people and in particular the internet industry, they go, well, everyone uses our products. I go, yeah, heroin addicts use a lot of heroin. That doesn't mean that it's good for them. They might even say, oh, I love heroin, but it's like, yeah, but that's also killing you. That's how I would point to it. I would also say, it's like you were talking about control. This is about the internet. The fundamental promise of the internet is that by being more connected would bring us closer together. That has literally not happened in every single case. More use of the internet for alleged social purposes has led to a decline in happiness and a reduction of actual sociability in the real world.

1:18:00Remember when Tinder came out and there was like a moral panic and they were like, oh my god, we can hook it up. Actually, no, teen sexism is literally at all time low. It's like getting 18 year olds to go out and meet someone for a date is like apparently like a monumental effort at this time. We thought that Facebook and all that would lead to more intra social connection. The opposite has happened is that people have less friends than ever and they spend all their times looking at some idiot influencer online, you know, dreaming about living their life, which is probably depressed and fake actually behind the serial. Yeah, that's what's actually happened as a result of social media. So everyone knows you have the internet is nice for I message, for email and for being a better white collar slave. Has it made your actual life a lot better? I just think the answer is no. And I think that's what the data center thing comes down to. So like you said, you have to intuit a lot of the social reasons why people say all kinds

1:19:03of things. And the water thing is convenient. I genuinely believe though, and as is the case of Loudon and in many of these other communities where they're coming in, they're like, oh, we're going to build you this and we're going to give you all these tax people are still rising up and saying, no, you really got to interrogate why? Because it's not about water. It's not even necessary about electricity. It's really about the internet. It's about control. It's also about private, you know, it's about private takeover. And I was just, you know, final thing is to come back to our entire segment yesterday about gain of function and the models. And so if we were to think of new frontier model development and AI as gain of function research, well, then why would we want to proliferate BSL4 labs, you know, all over the entire nation? So I have to look at this thing, which is designed by their own admission to try and replace you. And you want to like fund its own development. You might, you know, get some crumbs thrown at you. But in the long run, you're like, is this going to be good for me? I think that's what it all comes down to. And on the job piece too, in a lot of these communities, the people who are going to be

1:20:06getting the jobs are not the people who currently live in the community. Right. So you've also had a lot of like displacement of people who are longtime residents and the rent goes up. And so yes, the town is more economically prosperous, but it didn't necessarily benefit the people who had already been living there. So I think that's an important piece as well. Let's put the D4 up on the screen. You can see that the data center people know they've got a big problem on their hands in terms of public sentiment. And so what are they doing? They're going to spend lots and lots and lots and lots of money in particular in battleground states to try to push a pro data center and pro AI message. Build American AI and advocacy group tied to pro AI, super PAC leading the future is spending big on the AI data center fight, Axios rights, with plans to pour millions of dollars into battleground states. According to an announcement shared first with Axios data center backlash becoming a defining issue of the midterms supporters of the developments are punching back.

1:21:06Build American AI a 501 C4 nonprofit has about 50 million in cash on hand. Groups campaign will begin in Kansas, Ohio and Wisconsin. Kansas, very interesting, close polling there in the Senate race, quite shockingly. The money will go toward paid advertising, grassroots engagement, research, earned media and public education. Okay. So in any case, they are planning a big spending push and this comes on the heels of remember we reported on that Republican memo to the AI folks saying, hey, you got a big problem here. Like if you want us to support data centers, you need to change the narrative because this is political poison for us and we are getting killed over it. And you've seen the way that Republican politicians have very quickly changed their tune in the recent weeks and months after they've realized what a dire issue this is for them and their political standing. So in any case, you can count on the tech oligarchs to flood the airwaves with all sorts of pro data center propaganda. Will it work? We'll see.

1:22:06I think it will eventually work and I hate to say that. But and the reason why is look, they're at their nae deer. They know they need to spend the lot of money. They're going to take a huge hit in the midterms and this whole moratorium thing is going to happen. They're just going to have to pivot to what we were saying earlier. They're going to have to literally shower these communities with as many dollars as they can. But the question and when I say work is that presumes that they're going to keep having that unlimited budget and that this thing isn't going to go bust. You know what's interesting though is just looking loud in county is the place where you can point most clearly to the benefits like I said before tax have gone down for the residents. Huge amount of tax are of new flowing in, new schools, new sports facilities, all this kind of stuff. You know, a county that by the way was already relatively. I was going to say and I saw Trisha McLaughlin say yesterday she was like, this is why loud and county is rich. I'm like, what are you talking about? This is when the richest places in America. Yeah. So a bunch of defense contractors and government ex-creetings. People are getting rich off the air on war.

1:23:06So anyway, one was doing pretty good to start with. Now they're doing even better. Okay. So you would think that the residents of that town would be like, I am personally benefiting from the data center push. And so I would like to see more of this. They are facing a huge backlash. And so the elected leadership in the county have pulled back and made it more difficult to locate new data centers in the county because the residents there have also shifted along with the national mood against data centers. Even as, you know, they are a walking billboard for the economic fruits that can be delivered from allowing these data centers into your community. So that to me is also evidence that there's something very deep that's going on here with this regards to how Americans are feeling about these things being located in their communities that goes beyond. The environmental concerns goes beyond the electricity bill concerns because again, a many loud and county residents, a little bit of a hike in their electrical bill is not going to kill them and they're getting a lot of benefits. They'll be rich. On the other side of things as well.

1:24:08So in any case, I think it does go to this deeper sense of a loss of control and wanting to have input on what the future is. So I thought that was pretty interesting that even in a place like Loudon, there has been this same backlash against data centers. I agree. I met a Louisiana will be the more interesting testimony. So I met a shower of this Louisiana community with tons of money. It's giving them, like you just said, oh, all these promises except the big question is going to be, are the dollars going to stay forever? As in, we all know they make big promises. They might build the data center. And guests that I really like to try and book are these unions and this is like a fascinating tension for the left. There are a bunch of unions that are here in the DMV area who are all now saying we're not going to endorse any candidate because it's against data centers because the electricians and the blue collar workers which help build these things, they're making tons of money because a lot of it is needed in the interim. So that is an interesting tension too.

1:25:09And I think it's actually worth talking to some of those folks and being like, okay, yeah, it's good for you. What do you make of it in a bigger societal context? You are building out the infrastructure for people who are telling you they want to replace all paper. So it seems like a very short-sighted move. But of course they're balancing, okay, we need new members and new jobs right now. And also for them, they're like, oh, yeah, you can't automate me. You know, he's like, you can't automate an electrician or a steam fitter or ultimately that. That is ultimately the goal. Yeah, I am a friend of mine who's an electrician in a union who works on a data center. First of all, told me that they receive bomb threats. That's crazy. Regularly. Regularly. It's not reported. Second of all, there was a hearing, local hearing about a new data center and the union moves trying to get workers to come and testify and speak in favor of it. And basically they would be the only ones that would be there on the pro side as the

1:26:12way that these things go down. So in any case, a lot of interesting dynamics there. That's cool. All right, let's get to midterms. When I was 14 years old, I was kidnapped and health captive for nine months. I survived and I've spent my life exploring how other people survive what should have destroyed them. I'm Elizabeth Smart and these are the survivor files. I just remember this low taunting voice next to my ear saying, shut up, don't say anything. Every week, I'm with survivors who lived through the unthinkable. I knew if he woke up without a doubt, he was going to hurt me. I started feeling that there was someone at the end of my bed and I just started screaming. They are abducted, stalked, controlled and nearly silenced. But these aren't stories about what's taken from them. Their story is about what it takes to make it out alive. Listen to the survivor files with Elizabeth Smart on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts

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1:28:16podcasts. If you're bookshelf and you're for you page are equally important to your personality, welcome home. This is Pro's Society, the weekly podcast that's part book club, part group chat for thought daughters, pop culture obsessives and anyone who thinks pride and prejudice and love island deserve the same level of discourse. I'm Eli Rallo and every week we're connecting the dots between books, the internet and the conversations everyone can't stop having. I'm going to have to look up this story. I'm obsessed. I'm obsessed. I'm bestselling authors and your favorite book talk creators to the latest pop culture moments. Nothing is off the table. It's like if you can hide some real messages inside compelling characters and that is a Trojan horse, whether you're looking for literary deep dives, smart pop culture conversations or a community of readers who love to think a little too much, you're in the right place. Listen to Pro's Society on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:29:17See you between the pages. The bullwork was able to get their hands on leaked audio from a private meeting of an Oklahoma Republican who is sounding the alarm about how screwed the Republicans are for the midterms. Let's go and put this up on the screen. Stephanie Bice, representative from Oklahoma, says the challenge we have is that we have to get over the narrative that I don't like this guy. So I'm going to vote for the Democrat because I'm telling you right now I'm hearing it already and what happens is that will impact me because two things will either happen. They're going to vote for the Democrat and they may split the ticket and vote for me and a few others or this is my bigger fear right now. People don't go vote. Bice's comments remain to a gathering of Republican students at Oklahoma State University on Thursday evening provide a rare glimpse into the gloom. Some elected Republicans feel about the impending midterms talking to the students. She related a recent conversation she'd had with a Republican executive who described the president in very negative terms.

1:30:18So in any case, you've got again, we're talking about Oklahoma here, one of the most Republican places in the entire country and a representative there is even concerned about the number of Republicans who either may split ticket or just stay home. All of this relates of course to the economic situation crafted and created by Trump. The fact is we covered earlier consumer sentiment is way down inflation concerns way up. People are extremely they feel betrayed by Trump's handling of the economy and especially his decision to start the Iran war. We've got Harry Enten talking about the numbers for Trump on inflation in particular and with independence. Let's go ahead and take a listen to that. Look at this on inflation independence on Trump and inflation in August of 2024. Look at that. We're talking about Johnson inflation by 12 points over Kamala Harris, a very big reason that he won, I don't know why that green isn't going. Let's say no, it's not going. Isn't that interesting? Anyway, that was the reason he won, right?

1:31:21Plus 12 points. Look at this net up over writing now though. Whoa. Way down there. We're talking about what is that. We're talking about a 76 point switcheroo on the president of the United States, an issue in which he become a Harris by 12 points. He has now 64 points under water. You don't see changes like this, but the key issue that got elected, now he's way down there in the Gulf of Mexico. In August of 2022, look at that. The Republican Party was trusted more among independents by 27 points, 27 points four years ago. Look now who independents trust. They now trust Democrats by 18 points. What does that, Johnny? Be that's a 45 point switcher rule, so you can see that the chance of gas will be above $3.50. A guy on Election Day way up, but it was about $50.50 at the end of June. Now we're talking much closer to about 80% therein about. I'm gonna get the Cal Shiaz in there. Yeah, disgusting. Thank you, Harry. In any case, you saw a nearly 50 point shift towards Democrats on inflation. And I think that we have seen

1:32:24the way that inflation concerns are incredibly powerful in voters' minds as they head to the polls. So this is probably the single factor that is doing Trump the Republican Party post right now. No question, you can even see some of this in Ken Paxson's answer when he's asked, actually literally on Fox News about his poor polling. Take a listen. It shows Tallerika with a pretty solid lead over you in three congressional districts that the president carried by double digits. You're down eight points in the 15th, 10 points in the 28th, and 11 points in the 34th district. This is Texas, after all, how did a Democrat get that far ahead in Trump territory? Well, first of all, I don't trust all these polls. We have our own polling that suggests maybe a little different result, but we definitely have a close race. And we're in the middle of midterm elections where the party in power often has a much bigger challenge. The reality is this is a Republican state. If Republicans get out to vote, we're gonna win this race. And this guy has not been exposed with first record of eight years.

1:33:24The media doesn't cover it. He doesn't talk about his record. He doesn't talk about any claims that we're gonna call him a socialist. Yes, we are. The guy has complete socialist views. And I can tell you this, I do not believe, once we have the resources to expose his views, there's no way he's gonna win Texas. Yeah, I'm gonna get to the resources in just a second, but one more question on this polling, because it does have you running about 20 points behind President Trump's margin in these three districts. And I hear your point that it's just one poll and that you don't believe it. But is there an issue here with the Trump voters not transferring to you? Do you see the claims about an electability problem or is there anything happening right now with the Trump South Texas coalition that Republicans should be concerned about? No, I just don't think they know the other side. They don't know what James Talleriko's all about. He's this sort of unnamed guy that they have no idea what his views are in South Texas. His views on trans and kids, on boys and girls sports,

1:34:28and voting for a state income tax, on saying that the only guess industry should be basically dismantled and that you can't be a Christian if you support the goal only guess industry. These are all things that in South Texas, when you're claiming that there are six genders and that modern science is proven, those are not gonna go well in South Texas. Well, I'm not so sure. You could see how he's, she kind of pressed him there on why you think you're sub 20 and we covered some of that polling and you're like, dude, if that, first of all, look, the culture war stuff, I don't even disagree, but I'm like, is that really gonna hit in a inflation plus eight or whatever environment, especially when you're sub 20? And the second thing is his general lack of enthusiasm and infrastructure around him. It's actually shocking. So I saw today for the first time, there's $15 million that will be supporting him on the airwaves. That is the first big money that's actually been come out for Ken Paxon. The other big problem for Paxon was because the National Republican Senatoro Committee went so hard against him in the primary, they're not gonna put much money in his race whenever it comes to Talarico,

1:35:30which means he needs Trump's mega ink to come and save him, except Trump wants to run a bunch of ads how awesome he is, about how awesome Trump is, and that all he told the midterm candidates. He's like, just say about how incredible I am. It's all a messaging issue. So obviously Paxon is like, but he can't tell Trump, please don't do that because that would sink me in any of these races. They need the pack to come in and hit Talarico on Texas specific issues. So that's just where it all starts to fall apart. Yeah, well, and he's got the problem too. Kornin just came out said he's not gonna campaign for. No, I know. So you've got this bitter divide in Texas politics. Now Talarico also has this issue with Jasmine Crockett, who's like, you're not gonna campaign with him as well. It is a big problem. The black vote in the urban area of Texas, it's a problem for him. If I had to bet though, I think that most black voters in Texas are gonna be highly motivated to vote against the Republicans having nothing to do with James Talarico or Jasmine Crockett. It would be my vote, my guess. And that is what the polls seem to be reflecting at this point. So in a year when Republicans are all ready,

1:36:33disenchanted and demotivated to also have this divide in the Republican Party between Kornin and Paxin is a big problem with. Paxin has all kinds of disgusting scandals that people know about that have been covered extensively in Texas politics. So he's got those issues as well. But that polling that Fox News was pressing him on is pretty stunning. You're talking about districts that Trump won in certain cases by double digits that now again, according to the polls are going double digits for Talarico. That is a huge shift and Paxin cannot win. If those numbers are real Paxin cannot win. And even the top of the tag, Greg Abbott might be in trouble. If that's the kind of landscape that you're ultimately looking at. I don't know how much stock to put in this. I saw a poll this morning that actually has Darlene Graham losing in South Carolina. Now, I think Darlene Graham is going to win in South Carolina. But it shows you that they're going to have to spend in places like South Carolina, in places like Kansas, potentially in Mississippi. There are all kinds of states where in order to make sure

1:37:36that the Republican wins a race that should be an absolute gimme, they're going to have to actually get in and spend money. And so, you know, it looks like Paxin's going to be left on his own. And Talarico, meanwhile, is an absolute fundraising juggernaut. Let's put E3B up on the screen. So, let's pull out of Michigan with regards to Abdul Assad. There's been a couple now that show him with a four-point lead over micro-rogers. That's the top line. You have Rogers winning white voters, 49 to 43. Abdul winning black voter, 77 to 9. So, it does not appear that this concerns about, you know, black voters and then, typically, towards the Arab-American community is showing up, at least in the polls here. You never know. Let's take all the polls with a grain of salt, of course. Abdul absolutely crushing in the youngest demographic, 62 to 31. Also, in the next demographic, 35 to 49, he's up 48 to 38. In the older voters, Rogers has a lead. His biggest lead appears to me among Gen X-ish voters, 52 to 36. Narrowly winning boomers by three points,

1:38:37at least, again, according to this poll. And on the gender divide, Rogers has a 52-41 edge over Abdul among men. And Abdul has a 53-34 advantage among women in the state of Michigan. And if you drill down further into this, Abdul is winning both college and non-college women. Rogers is winning non-college men and is basically even with college educated men. So, very interesting in the state of Michigan. But I think if you had to bet, just because of the year and how much Democrats have, you know, the win at their back. And also, now, Mike Rogers has taken what I have to think is an unpopular position in Michigan with regard to the Canada trade war. It's a good point. You know, he's saddled with a lot of Trump baggage. And the data center thing, I've been saying he's a fool. Yes. He's against it. Completely. And Abdul has been dealing with all of this Hassan Piker during the situation, freakout, all of that's been going on. People have not really had, they have not had the chance

1:39:39to make the case against Mike Rogers aggressively. This is a guy that was supporting the Iran War for literally decades. I mean, this is someone who has been on board and pushing all sorts of lies about their nuclear program for years and years and years. So, on one of the issues that voters are most upset about, Mike Rogers is not only on the wrong side of that. He's been on the wrong side of it for decades at this point. Yeah, I'm looking at some of these latest ones. Nate Silver has the aggregate. I mean, D-plus-4 is obviously the best result. But there was a more recent one, Susca Hanna, but just a couple of days ago, which had Abdul up by seven points, 46.39. That fits kind of with my modal kind of where I think things are going to go. And I just think this is where the trends matter. If you have a guy who lost in a wave to Republican election, how were you supposed to win in a democratic wave election? I mean, it defies logic. Like, why would you nominate the same person? And Rogers, I mean, he's a good point. It's just one of those where it honestly makes me feel like

1:40:40I'm taking crazy pills where people are acting as if he did not just run two years ago and lose. Whenever Donald Trump won the state by a percentage point or more. And I mean, he was up against the electoral juggernaut of a list of slug. Right. That's what I mean. It's like one of the most unimpressive women in all politics. Like, okay. And so if you're going to lose to her, how exactly are you going to win right now? It just, that was with every conceivable thing going right for a Michigan Republican. And you still were not able to win. You lost by like 0.2 or something like that. So first of all, it proves that there were split ticket voters who were Trump's slacking voters. Actually, a decent number of them in Michigan. How many of those people are actually going who are already trusting of Trump and still were willing to vote Democrat? How many of those people are going to trust Trump on this one? He's not even on the ballot to follow him in the race. That's why structurally, I'm like he has no chance. And maybe I'm being too, over like too optimistic, I guess, for Abdul's chances.

1:41:40But to me, it was either Stevens or Abdul, either of those are winning in my opinion. I just didn't even think it was a question. That's why that was a real race. Malloram and Morrow, Abdul, Haley Stevens. All three were going to win. Yeah, it was more of an internacing conflict because it's kind of, you knew that going in. Tallariko is a very different story because it's one of the only, like, crocket even in the wave, I don't think she had a chance. Where with Tallariko, I'm like, yeah, maybe. He fits the right. He's got the fundraising thing on his side. He's kept him well. He's got a ton of money on his side. He's got the, it hits the new, engaged political demographic of Texas, like perfectly, the white middle class, you know, liberal woman who's very activated, who may have voted for McRomney or something. In the past, like, I absolutely could see something like that happening. So I just, I look at all that. I also structurally, this was fascinating, E5. I had not considered this. And it's such a smart point from Jonathan Martin, is one of the nightmares, which happened in the GOP for the midterms, was that neither Clarence Thomas

1:42:45or Samuel Alito announced their retirement. And the point that he makes is that four Republicans to come out in an unpopular election, they need a reason. So we know, if you're a Republican and you're running in a midterms, like, what is your agenda to do what? Like, they literally are not even telling you to just stop the Democrats from doing whatever they're gonna do. I'm like, okay, well, what you're doing right now sucks. So why would I come out to vote? Well, one of the enduring things, they've always been able, especially to get their base to come out to vote for, is the Supreme Court. And so I didn't even think about it, but they're totally right, is that if they were going to resign, now would have been the time when they have the slight majority in the Senate, and then they could have gotten their guys through. And so if they were going to make sure that they really wanted people to come out and vote, you would announce your retirement, and you would say, I'm gonna retire after the midterms. And that would mean people would be like, oh my God, we gotta come out to vote to make sure that we can confirm these just, you need to make it real for a lot of these people.

1:43:47And I'm not joking, that would be a significant reason why a lot of people would come out to vote. You can imagine on the Democratic side too, a lot of people, Rovers' weight people were like, oh, whoa, like I have to come out and vote for this. They have an off, I was very motivating on the Republican in 2018. And even though it still wasn't a great year for them, it would have been a lot worse if you didn't have the Kavanaugh fight. And that led to a lot of, especially places that were red, that Democrats thought they had a shot at in the closing weeks with Kavanaugh Front and Center that really shifted things against Democrats and more difficult terrain. And it's been a long time for some of our younger listeners, you not remember this. Trump putting out the list of conservative justices and being like, these are the people I'm gonna nominate. That was massive for the evangelicals. A huge number of them were like, I don't like the guy, he's got pants, he's got the list, let's go for it. I mean, honestly, it's like a forgotten memory at this point. And obviously it works. It's one of the great gambles in their history. And so not having an affirmative reason to keep the Senate is a huge problem.

1:44:48I think for a lot of these Republican cases. He writes in this piece, he's focused on the Midwest and talking about Ohio and Kansas and Iowa. He says every wave election brings a late surprise. If conditions deteriorate, there's a chance Nebraska, Kansas and even Mississippi could fall. The culprits are obvious, the exorbitant cost of living Trump's deep unpopularity with the political center and the massive enthusiasm gap Democrats enjoy over Republicans. Now that would be extraordinary. If you had any of those Nebraska, Kansas or Mississippi. I do think Dan Osborne has a shot in Nebraska. We have seen polling in Kansas that has it very close. I don't know the dynamics of Mississippi to be perfectly honest with you. I haven't tuned into it. But let's go ahead and put Nate Silver's projections up on the screen here. He's got the Democrats leading by 7.7 points on the generic ballot. That's a very large lead. It's been relatively stable, but you can see it increasing bit by bit over time.

1:45:48And I'll just say like the Midwest being crucial in this, Iowa and Ohio in particular, is a real problem for Republicans because these are states they should win easily. However, they're also states that have been hurt the most by Trump's trade wars and by the Iran war. So Iowa is at this point tilt them at least. And at the governor level in Iowa, it's really looking like Democrats are going to win that seat. The other state to pay attention to is Alaska where they have this very unusual political system. They do a jungle primary and then they do actually top four, I think runoff. In any case, Mary and Paltola, the Democrat, as more votes have come in, she is very close to winning 50% in the primary. So one of the big groups that rates these races, just shifted this more towards Democrats because of her performance in the primary. It's one thing to look at polls. It's another thing when voters actually show up and vote

1:46:50for her to be at very close to 50% in that race, in that initial test is highly significant. It indicates she's got a real path to be able to win in Alaska. So that would be huge. We talked about Tallerico. I think Abdul's going to be fine. Tore Jackson seems to be coasting at this point against Susan Collins. Again, the polls have been wrong there in the past. You never know. She seems to have some extraordinary superpowers looking very good for him. North Carolina is basically a lock. Sherrod Brown looking very strong in Ohio. Iowa looking very good. So it's going to be very interesting. And I think what we've seen in the special elections, putting all the polls aside, is that huge enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans were Democrats are winning in places that they didn't even think would be possible. All the caveats aside. So Iowa, they have it within like point two. I mean, we did just have an election where the Iowa poll was like the most catastrophically historically wrong, right? So you should definitely take that. It wasn't worth it. South Carolina. Yeah, sure. We'll go with that. Who else would I think?

1:47:50Oh, South Carolina. What does that remind you of? Remember Jamie Harrison? He raised like $15, $20 million to lose by the same amount as his predecessor. Or like Amy McGrawff and Kentucky. Oh my gosh. Yeah, she raised like 50 million. Oh my gosh. I'm trying to Sarah something against Susan Collins. They had her winning by 12. She lost by five or something. So this stuff can be wrong all the time. Do not take any of this stuff with the granted. But it's worth thinking through some of the crazy scenarios. I'm trying to think, I don't even remember the last Democrat from Nebraska. The Cornhusker kickback is coming to mind. Oh yeah. Something about. I'm not going to have that. No, sorry, that's a problem. Well, this is like $2,000. Oh my God. Yeah, the Cornhusker kickback is coming to mind. So these are things I've read about in books. I was a child literally when this stuff was happening. I'm trying to think too, where you also had, I think there was a Democrat, not from Mississippi per se, but there were definitely Democrats. Ben Nelson. That's what I was reading. Ben, my one say, SAS, yeah.

1:48:52Right. So Ben Nelson, Dick Luger remember these types of old figures. But they could come back. You know, some of these folks, these types of, I don't even know, blue dogs. It's not the right word because things have just changed so much. But we shouldn't assume 2010 was the year that all politics became completely national. Yeah. And in such a way where partisanship dominated, the people like Susan Collins were able to define national trends just shrank to a tiny number of them. Morkowski and the Collins. That's why we literally know their names. But we shouldn't assume it's an ironclad rule of politics. We were interested in politics before 2010. It was a given that you would have Democratic senators from Louisiana or from, I don't know, I'm thinking of Tennessee, I'll go or, like, you know, it's like these things have existed in our modern lifetimes. There's no reason that it can't switch back. And if we're living in such an, we already lived through an extraordinary election. 2024 was an insane election. Literally where Republican wins a popular vote. There's no reason why things can't shift dramatically from there too.

1:49:54There's just no reason to assume. And I always encourage people to do this. Look at the 96 electoral map compared to 2000. Like the 96 map where Clinton wins like an overwhelming number of states and how razor-tight things are for W and Gore four years later. Like our politics can change at a statewide level, even significant margins, like even on 10, 12% in different directions in just a matter of four years or even two years. I mean Obama won Iowa, he won Indiana. You know, he won Florida. So yeah, you, it's easy to feel like this is all very static, but especially with how much rural America has been screwed and for how long. And I think that farmers really, you know, they culturally, they're with Trump. There's a lot of just Republican DNA there. They really will end to give them some bandwidth to operate with the tariffs in the first term, but it has just been one blow after another. And so for the family farmers that are still hanging on, they're calling it farm pocolips.

1:50:55Yes. It's a matter of how many bankruptcies they're going to be because of the cost of fertilizer. Also, there's been, they've faced a lot in terms of just climate and drought. So there's that and then you have the diesel costs, which are so high, they are just getting screwed and completely devastated. So at some point, you have to think that shows up at the ballot box. Like people will take it for some time. But eventually, if they feel screwed over and ignored for long enough, they will make other plans. They will make other choices or they just won't vote, which is enough of it. Which that's the Texas scenario. I don't think any of these West Texas Republicans are going to vote for a Democrat, but if you just don't vote in a bunch of, I think Latinos could shift quite significantly from what that's not Texas. Yeah, no, that's for sure. But I meant, you know, the traditional, crusty white ranchers, I'm like, these people are not liberals. Like they're not coming out to vote for talent. Oh, those ranchers are pissed right now. But they are mad. And they may, but they may just not vote. They might just come out and say screw you, Ken Pax, a screw you, Greg Abbott. Let's see where things go in a different direction.

1:51:55That I could see that kind of alchemy come together in a perfect storm really against a lot of the Republicans. But that's, you know, who knows? All right. We've got Hassan standing by. Let's get to it. On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman. I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering the ride on his motorcycle. I choose option B. I'm Julie Pinero and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first. I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility. Listen to Solita on the I Heart Radio app, Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

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