Aaron Cohen | 03-07-26

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The Larry Cudlow Show entertaining and informative on the Red Apple podcast network.

My great pal, Aaron Cohn, founder of Gideon, AI Threat Detection for law enforcement, former special ops for Israel. He's got the Aaron Cohn podcast.

Aaron, we were talking last night on the TV show and it's interesting because I followed up with Channel King.

The idea that there is a you raises the idea that there's a business class in Iran and one would expect them to take some action.

You know, to lay down and lay down their arms and surrender is unconditionally as President Trump wants.

But he made an important distinction and I want to get you to take on it.

You've got these big manufacturers, defense manufacturers, who are really kind of part of the government.

And of course, their companies and their facilities are being bombed, you know, just wasteful, waste, which is good, have to do it.

But they're in cohorts with the revolutionary guard and army and navy and whoever.

But then you've got another group, these, you know, middle class shopkeepers, I think he called them.

You know, you can just imagine they're afraid to come outside, they're getting bombed and so forth.

But the shopkeepers are out there and they're the ones they're not associated with the, you know, ruling clique.

And they're the ones that would want to foment a change.

So I'm just trying to figure out, you know, how this can finally play out because the game's over.

I mean, it's just a question of playing out the hand.

Robert O'Brien was just on a former national security adviser.

He says kind of like Japan at 44 and 45.

We did have to do, unfortunately, we did have to do more.

We're not going to nuke Iran.

We took a while to, you know, absolutely squelts the entire country's operation.

So what, who does it?

Who are the people that lead the overthrow?

So Larry, it's good to be home with you and thank you for the plug on Gideon last night.

And thank you again today, trying to get law enforcement upstream for these lone wolf attackers.

So here's, here's one of that, the Iranian middle class.

I'm glad you asked it again because I've been thinking about it since we discussed it.

Is actually one of the most important forces to watch, in my opinion, in this situation,

which is why I brought it up yesterday with you on your show.

So we're talking about millions of, these are educated urban Iranians, professionals.

The engineers, the teachers, the small business owners, like you said,

and these are the people who are not connected to the ruling elite, as you just mentioned,

and increasingly feel that the regime has robbed them of economic opportunity and personal freedom.

And I assume that's what you're sort of leading towards here.

So for years, that middle class, now I grew up in Los Angeles, even though I was trained in Israel.

I've been around the Persian Jewish community, the Persian Muslim communities are good people.

And so for years, the middle class has been the engine of the descent that I ran,

and they all left in 1979.

And so you saw during the green movement in 2009, you saw it again during the nationwide protests in 2019.

And so I think what makes them particularly significant is that they understand the cost of the regime's policies.

And so their movement, I think, can create enormous pressure.

I think that's where the protests live.

If they start striking civil resistance, but by themselves, I don't know if it's enough to topple a regime like this.

You know, these authoritarian systems collapse when the pressure from the society reaches the security apparatus.

And so in this case, the besiege, the militias, the internal security force, that middle class has to push hard.

And in order for them to get that boost, I think these operations need to continue.

But there might be enough of them for them to deteriorate or begin that deterioration.

But I think it's still too early in the campaign.

And I think there might have to be boots on the ground, Larry, before that middle class can rise up.

So I just think there needs to be more pressure before that class can step up.

But I definitely think, I think they're the pin in the grenade. I agree with you.

You know, I look, both General Keen and Robert O'Brien, who is former national security adviser, agreed with you.

It's too early. It's just too early and much more is going to happen.

I don't know about boots on the ground. I don't think that's what I'm trying to say.

I don't think it's U.S. boots, Larry. I don't think it's U.S. boots. I think it's...

Oh, Israeli boots.

I listen. The question is, how many Israeli boots selective operations, U.S. special operations forces assisting with Kurdish elements,

just to make sure they're equipped and trained, helping organize?

I don't think any of this is going to be long-term boots anywhere. Trump's made that really clear.

He doesn't want to get into the forever wars. But here's the thing in counterterrorism, Larry.

These aren't forever wars after what happened in Iraq. It just doesn't work.

Israel can put boots.

What's the problem? Israel's got light infantry for days, and that's Israel's backyard.

So if the Americans are like, hey, we're not going to put boots, it's cool. Israel isn't afraid to.

They don't have any policy or pressure. This is their backyard. This is their survival.

But again, I think that would be limited in scope, and by the way, I think General Keen is fantastic.

I listen every word that he says, so please let him know.

He's a great man. He's a great, a long-time friend of mine and mentor.

But he's a great, a great man.

I think these are limited operations, but Larry, here's what I was just kind of formulating in my mind this morning before we spoke.

There is going to have to be some kind of ground element.

You're not going to be able to take down 300,000 Iranian military and then another five to 7,000 besiege,

which is what we're looking at, approximately, those middle ranks, which is where the real,

for the IRGC, that besiege, you've got to get those middle guys as well.

They're the ones who have to defect over. So there have to be ground operations.

I think it'll be selective. I think it'll be rolled out slowly, but it's about pressure.

How much pressure? Strupp Warfare.

I say keep stacking it on incrementally over the next few weeks.

And just like we said last night, make the price high enough to where, listen, the nuclear deal,

it's all off the table now, Larry.

Now that you have to step down and Trump understands that.

But who does these ground operations?

I don't think it has an issue with it because it's their backyard and they know it's,

and we know it's our national survival.

I think it's closely monitored by US special operations forces who've been in Israel by the way for the last six months.

They've been coordinating with the Israelis. They're so calm and central commands.

Our special US special ops.

No, US special operations.

He's never rolled it out.

That's the president has never rolled that out.

He's rolled out, you know, infantry ground troops.

No, we don't need it. It doesn't work anyways.

You can't put infantry boots on the ground for long periods of time.

Because once they nest in, they become target fired.

Right, right, right.

So it's got to be hit and run. It's got to be special operations.

But we've got tech today, Larry.

Tech. We've got drones. We've got predators.

We've got surveillance. We've got signal intelligence.

And you've got the facade on the ground for 30 years inside there.

So the intelligence packages are phenomenal.

Look what we did with the pages.

And look what we just did now with these 40 IRGC or Iatola's top 50 guys in 60 seconds gone.

So I think it's, I think it's more pressure. I agree with the general.

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So, one last point, you mentioned it earlier.

The Persian, I call it the Persian diaspora.

And I actually have, you know, bumped into them many times.

The very wealthy, successful business and bankers, investors.

You see them in New York, heavily in Washington, D.C.,

heavily in LA, near all of the place, they're good.

But I don't, I'm trying to figure out they have the resources

that somebody in Iran probably needs to finally overturn

the last vestiges of the regime.

But I can't figure out what the connection is.

I can't figure out how the tentacles come together.

It's a good question.

The Persian diaspora, especially, I think, in the United States,

is probably one of the most influential Iranian communities outside the country.

The Nazareans, the Shokkans, the families,

the families, but you know these big money guys.

Qualcomm and all that work.

I know them personally.

Good folks.

And they're incredible business leaders.

And very influential in Iran before they all took off

when their bank accounts were shut down.

So hundreds of thousands of Iranian Americans,

many of them highly educated and left in 1979.

So in terms of influence, I do think that the diaspora

plays an important role in a few ways.

I think first they helped shape the public conversation

and the actual policy debate.

But second, the visibility and the support for the opposition force

is helping to amplify and pull avi.

You know what I mean?

And the question is, do they have enough Jews?

And will they pull their money together?

And will they take all of that to Trump?

The Trump isn't already having that conversation about Reza Palavi.

Because he seems to be the number one source.

No.

The question is, do they have enough influence

to put together the funding and design the policy

and get to all of the besiege?

Right.

To get them to let come over to Palavi

and put him in at the same time once these operations

get a peak, I don't know.

We'll see.

We'll see.

Great stuff.

Aaron Cohn, founder of Gideon.

We appreciate very, very much.

We'll talk soon, Aaron.

We'll take a break, folks.

And then we're going to do some stock market work

on the other side.

Stay with us, I'm Cudlow.

The Larry Cudlow Show

on the Red Apple Podcast Network.