April 06-09 | Ledger Recap

It is Friday, April 10, 2026, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.

In this episode of Ledger Recap, the team analyzes a high-volume 25-position session that saw a 17-5 win rate. We dive into the 'Film Room' to discuss why our hockey bets on the STARS and CAPITALS delivered such high returns and where we left alpha on the table by sizing too conservatively. We also break down the NBA odds in the HAWKS versus KNICKS game, exploring how to use real-time trading on Kalshi and Polymarket to avoid bad beats and exit positions before they swing against you.

• Portfolio Grading: Assessing the 7.4 unit gain across 25 positions.
• NHL Deep Dive: Analyzing the STARS moneyline and CAPITALS spread contracts.
• Market Mechanics: Using implied probability to calibrate position sizing.
• The Trading Edge: How to sell shares mid-game on prediction markets to lock in profits.
• Injury Wire Protocols: Avoiding systemic information gaps in player prop bets.

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly. [email protected]

"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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