April 13-16 | Ledger Recap

It is Friday, April 17th, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.

In this episode of the Ledger Recap, we go inside the numbers to evaluate our portfolio performance on Kalshi and Polymarket. We break down the mispricing of volatility in the Detroit and Kansas City game and analyze the systemic command issues that led to a loss in the Houston versus Seattle matchup. Marcus Webb introduces the concept of 'Conviction Calibration' and explains why the current market odds require a more aggressive unit sizing strategy to maximize alpha.

We also look at the NHL action between Dallas and Toronto, examining how a 'settlement miracle' can hide flaws in a betting thesis. Learn why the 90-cent exit rule is essential for managing risk in high-volatility game states.

For feedback or questions, contact us at [email protected].

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.

"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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