Atlanta Braves Still Searching For Another Playoff Starter

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1:00But hurry, these deals won't last long. Toyota's easy choice sales event and soon. We make it easy. Toyota, let's go places. While Tyler Malley has e-sum concerns about who the number two starter in the postseason will be, who starts game three and potentially a game four are very much a question mark for the Atlanta Braves. And it could come down to who performs the best in the final month. You are locked on braves. Your daily Atlanta Braves podcast part of the locked on podcast network. Your team every day. Hey, welcome back to locked on braves. I'm your host, Jake Masteryani. Today's episode is brought to you by a fan duel called Twilball Saturdays are already packed with reasons to get excited. And this season, fans, even more ways to get in on every matchup. Join all the action at fandall.com. This is our weekly Twitter Melda. I have a sober answer all the questions you submitted on Twitter. We got about over 20 questions to answer today. So a lot to get to it.

2:04And as always, a wide range of questions. We're going to start out with one here from Colin Moses talking about the number three starter who says do you see someone who has separated themselves as a game three starter in the postseason. If not, how would you navigate game three with the staff. And I think it's a great question and outside of seeing the offense, getting going. Seeing where this braves team lands are able to win the division get a buy or they can be a wild card team. All of that. Those are definitely the biggest story lines in the final month. But I think outside of those two story lines, the next biggest one is who is a potential game three starter. And look, if you go in the wild card round and you win the first two, or you lose the first two, not as big of a deal there. But if the race are going to reach their ultimate goal, they're going to do a game three starter at some point. Tyler Malley in the work that he's done coming over, I think has asserted himself as the game to starter behind Chris sale. But who's going to start a game three is completely up in the air right now. Your candidates are obviously Martin Perez, Bryce elder, Grant Holmes, AJ Smith, Shalver.

3:15Don't feel great about Bryce elder right now. Don't feel great about AJ Smith, Shalver. And I think he was the one that we all are kind of hoping with the potential that he has. If he puts it together, his stuff should play up in a postseason series. But he has not looked great. And again, as I keep saying, kind of expected for a guy coming back to Tommy John surgery was a lot to ask for him to come back and be the guy that we all think he can be. Don't I think for me right now, it might come down to Martin Perez or Grant Holmes. And the way that as much as we try to continue to kick Grant Holmes out of the rotation, he might be the best suited for right now. He might be throwing the ball the best out of any of them. And I think whoever that game three starter is, it's going to be a very quick hook. And so I think it comes down to who do you trust the most to give you five clean innings? And I kind of think it's Grant Holmes at the moment. It's either Holmes or Perez, like I said, those two to me are, I think are the leaders for that game three start.

4:25It's either that or you start Bryce elder, let him go through the lineup one time, see where he is, but then have Martin Perez or Grant Holmes ready to come in. Again, I still think no matter what, there's going to be some sort of piggyback situation. You could you could do this with a j smith shop or two if you wanted use him kind of as an opener, tell him just a letter rip for the first, you know, two, three innings, whatever, maybe one time through the order. And then let Grant Holmes come in and see if he can get you three, four innings. But I think if you wanted to go with a just traditional starter for game three, who can give me the most length. I think I'm leaning towards Grant Holmes at the moment, but that is going to be a big storyline here for the rest of the month. I think it's going to come down to who who's throwing the ball the best come October of those those guys that I mentioned. And does H.A. Smishover even be in the rotation? I think we got another question about that later on. But I do think that third game three starter is up for grabs. And I think it comes down to just who is throwing the best come the end of the month.

5:29Question from Bill fire who says how would manager Jake set up our post season lineup, giving how the bats are playing currently. And do you change up any for right handed left handed pitching. So I actually don't I'm going to play the same nine no matter whether it's right handed or or left handed pitching right now. Well, that's not entirely true. It's set for Yaz and Thomas. I'm going to insert them based on on match up for right handed hitter. I think I'm going to go Acuna Michael Olsen Baldwin Ozzy Yazdubon Murphy Riley. Yes, I'm batting Austin Riley Riley night. And you could flip pop if you if you want to split up the lefties. I think you can flip flop Acuna and Michael Harris. But that's those are the players that I'm using then against lefties. It's Acuna Michael Olsen Ozzy Drake Thomas Murphy Riley and Duvon. We got another question about Drake later. I'm a little concerned with some things I'm seeing with his swing, particularly against lefties where he's been so strong yet or at least was last year and early this year.

6:29But I'm really not changing anything Murphy is in my line of every day in the post season that again, I've been I've been saying this for weeks now even before he got on the hot stretch offensively, but just the impact that he has behind the plate. I think is huge for the Atlanta Braves and what ultimately might be a team that is built on their success might come down to pitching and defense. Which makes it even more important to have a Sean Murphy behind the plate. So I'm really not changing up the line of smudge. I know Kim's maybe having a little bit of resurgence right now. I'm not completely bought into that yet. So I'm giving Duvon the everyday starts at short stop. And the only changes I'm making right handed left handed or Yaz and Thomas Matthew Carter says do you think the lineup border needs to be changed since we've been struggling to score lately. And I think Walt has tried to do that. My only suggestion as you just saw from the lineups that I gave you. I'm putting Drake down a little bit. I can't I'll talk about it more here in a second when that question comes up little concern with some of the things I'm seeing with Drake.

7:29And I think Michael is just so hot right now. You got to put him at the top whether it's lead off or you bat him second. And me and Lindsay have talked about this on the postcast. I just like having Ronald and Ronald and Michael back to back in the lineup at the top there. That's always been the most ideal fit. It's just Michael's been so up and down. Obviously Ronald himself has been up and down mostly down so far this season. But having those two at the top, you know, give you some speed on the basis some dynamic players from the gate or out of the gate there. So I like Ronald and Michael at the top. That's really the only significant change that I would make is bumping Michael up and pushing Drake down. Belfire says these next 13 days basically set the tone for the postseason and whether we have a division winning seed or a bubble team. I think we go eight and five with four wins first of Phillies and win the division. What is your projection for those 13 games in our position at season in. I'm going to say the Braves go six and seven in this 13 game stretch. I just don't have a ton of confidence in the offense right now.

8:30And that can change quickly right. We've seen it throughout this season where they look like the worst at times and they looked like the best at times. It can flip on a dime. And if that happens, I wouldn't be surprised if they go, you know, eight and five in the stretch. But just was what I've seen from them lately. I don't have a ton of confidence right now in the offense. So I'm going to say they go six and seven. But even if they go six and seven or seven, six in the stretch, depending on how those games go against the Phillies, obviously. I think the Braves are still going to be in a pretty good spot to win the division. I do. If I had to predict now, I predict predict they win the division, but don't get one of the top two guys, which kind of feels like a pretty bad outcome. But as long as you get that, you know, wild card round at home, I think that would be, you know, fine for the Atlanta Braves either winning the division or getting that top wild card spot needs to be the bare minimum for the Atlanta Braves so that they get that home series their home record much better this year. Braves guy says, should we reorder the bullpen towards the end of the season, postseason with Igi and Lee underwhelming with Sforas coming back and Fuente is looking good.

9:35Should we consider a new closer. This is also probably another good storyline to watch in the final month. And really this weekend, I've been thinking about it this weekend for Dylan Lee, you're going to need him late in the game against Kyle Schwarber against a very hot Bryce Harper. I think this weekend goes a long way in determining what to do with Dylan Lee. If he can come in, get those guys out, you know, get a hold and say the lead there. That that gives him some confidence and us some confidence for him going forward. If he looks shaky again this weekend, facing those top lefties of the Phillies, how much confidence do you really have with him going into the post season? And you could say the same about a Glacias who has struggled in that ballpark against the Phillies if he has to come in to close out a game against the top of their order and struggles or even gives up the lead or blows to save. How much confidence do you really have in him? So I think this matchup just in particular this weekend will go a long way in determining where the confidence level is for Lee and Igi and whether or not there needs to be a change made there.

10:39I think it's too soon to really say anything about Swaris until we see him back see what he looks like he has missed a lot of time now. I still think Puentes is just your fireman in the seventh eighth maybe even night thinnings if you need to, you know, if you could get through seven the nates without having to use him and have him kind of the backup option in the ninth inning, which you're not really going to do that necessarily. But I think just having Fuentes as a guy who can come in and put out a fire whatever point you need to is still the best role for him right now. Adam says if we don't go far in the post season will this finally be the breaking point for a a to make moves for starting picture depends on what the reason it's for not going deep in the post season. I mean the pitching staff has been the strong suit of this team. So if the starting pitchers outside of Chris sale. Get blown up in this post season there's a chance that Chris sale could too but I think we all would feel still feel pretty confident with Chris sale going forward.

11:40Well, let's say talent talent, Malley goes out there in game two and just gets blown up and then you start a grant homes in game three and you're out of it by the fifth inning. Then yeah, I think you have to reassess your plan in the off season to maybe go out and get some and actually pay and not hope for another sale deal to fall in your lap but actually pay to go get some starting pitching at the top of the rotation. You know, the pitching goes out there and great and it's great and the offense is the one that holds them back. Then I think it's a different conversation that maybe you need to reshuffle your position player group and rethink your offensive strategy. Zuzu says my I test is telling me that a man on third but less than two outs makes the right this brave team have the worst advance putting the ball in play but swinging at bad pitches. Is there any data that proves that so it certainly feels that way but if I filtered correctly on baseball to Vaughn they actually have the ninth best batting average with a runner at third and less than two outs at a 345 batting average. Lee averages 324 they have the 15th lowest or highest strikeout rate depending on your personality in those situations it does feel most work much worse than that and they have the 14th most at bass in that situation but again, unless I ran it wrong somebody feel free to fact check me on this but the brazer actually pretty good good in those situations at least middle of the pack again with the way that it feels like they're one of the worst in baseball.

13:05But the numbers don't actually say that they say they're more middle of the pack if not in the top half of the league or you got a lot more questions to get to on today's episode of a locked on a braves including some more about Drake ball when is there some concern with him and the swing decisions will get into that next. Big thank you to our friends at Amazon for this limited ad break this back to school season spin less on your kids with Amazon we all know how crazy the back to school shopping experience can be it starts with a few items on the list and then suddenly you're shopping for supplies clothes lunch gear tech and about 10 of the things you didn't see coming it adds up fast like when you look at the school supply list and wonder if you're shopping for one child or opening a small office supply store. I didn't realize first grade required this much inventory shopping like this can get out of control if you're not careful or when it's 9 p.m. the night before school starts and somebody suddenly remembers they need folders notebooks markers and apparently 12 other things nobody mentioned until now nothing gets the heart rate up quite like emergency schools shopping and I'm convinced that primes deliver tomorrow before 7 a.m. feature was created exclusively for parents caught in this moment.

14:19So remember with Amazon's low back to school prices just been less on your kids because every dollar you don't spend on them is a dollar you haven't spent on them yet shop back to school at Amazon and spend less on your kids. Next question here comes from a large a large who says is went as being considered for the closure job next season so you have to wear as under control for next year could potentially bring Iggy back. I think it depends on what the rotation looks like if they're going to give them a shot in the rotation I feel like you have to do that now or at least see in spring training at the beginning of the year what it could look like. I feel like it's going to come down to where is the bigger need and if you don't bring back Iggy if Lee is suddenly falling apart. Sores has some injury concerns the bigger need might actually be in the bullpen.

15:22But if swallow box not on track in his recovery we don't know what strider is obviously you're going to be without Waldrop we don't really know what a J smith shopper looks like. Maybe the rotation is the bigger need for flintest I think it's going to come down to need if you wanted to just go ahead and make him the closer I think you certainly could he has that ability. But we're kind of far away from really knowing what what is going to be the future of win test and we got to see him you know do it as a starter right like he's had some starter set the big level hasn't gone particularly well. I do think he needs to continue to work on developing that third pitch that that splitter if that's going to be the third pitch or something else and a Lindsay probably wants to get a cutter. I do think it's going to come down to that but as far as starter bullpen again I think I've answered this question eight straight weeks on our mailbag and I go back and forth every time but ultimately I think it's going to come down to what is the bigger need I think predicting right now I need to go into spring training stretching him out as a starter and then just kind of go from there see how he's developing what he looks like he maybe even goes into the next season as a starter and then if you need to transition him into the bullpen.

16:35I think you could do it at that at that point that's what I would predict that the braves do Caldame Donald says should AJ Smith shall be exclusively in the bullpen next year as he works his way back. I think if you were going to do that you would do it this year but I think the braves were so desperate to try and find they know their post season starter and because you wanted to get him stretch back out anyway. Look this could ultimately be where AJ Smith shaller lands because throughout his career he has had trouble maintaining below and having the stamina to go five innings and if that continues to be a problem for AJ Smith shaller and I would I would not really judge his future based on what you see this year again it's usually the following season after a player comes back from Tommy John surgery so I wouldn't be making too many assumptions and predictions based on what we see from the bullpen. I think that's what I would say is that I would not be making too many assumptions and I would not really judge his future based on what you see this year as he works his way back from AJ Smith shaller this year but even historically he has had some stamina issues and if that continues to plague him and he's still just 23 years old but if that continues to be a problem I could see him transitioning to the bullpen where I think he be a pretty devastating reliever similar to you know didier.

17:47I think that's a good idea to get this all in set up guy potential closure closer so those are the likely outcomes for both of those guys I think they either have they figure it out put it together in our top of the rotation pictures or they can't and they become lights out bullpen arms and that's great fallback option for both of these guys big dog fans 73 says what do you think a contract would look like for DuBan next year years and money. He's in a lot of ways to see himself as if he feels he is a full time every day player. Then he's probably going to command you know 15 16 million a year kind of similar to what we were talking about with Haasong Kim contracts last last year where you know him had a 16 million dollar option and pravians it up he declined it and he raised it up signing for 20 a year. I could see DuBan getting a three year deal for somewhere between 12 and 15 million a year. I think make sense for a guy even not as a even not as a starter but somebody that's going to start pretty much every game but just goes his versatility also depends on what you really believe his bat is going to be we talked about it coming into this year I mean it's somebody where the bat normally sits around you know in 90 WRC plus he started out the year hot kind of leveled off you know where does the bat end up this year he's at a 92 W.

19:15WRC plus right now which is still higher than his career average of 86 so it's overall been a pretty good offensive season for him based on his standards but it's still not it's still not even close to league average necessarily 100 being league average he's at 92. Is he really an everyday player and are you going to give him everyday money but I think somewhere between two to three years somewhere between 12 to 15 million a year sounds about right for DuBan just based on his defensive versatility and somebody that really helps improve your depth. Calming Donald says because we really see Alex Lodys next year at some point in Atlanta if he keeps progressing as he has there certainly the chance and he's getting a lot of momentum a lot of that will depend on obviously what he how he's going to do. Obviously what he how he ends the year at double a which I think is the biggest jump for a position player if we continue to see the improved at bats at double a we see that strikeout rate come down just looking at it right now at double a right now he's a 4.5% walk rate which is not great but just a 20.9% strikeout rate his strikeout rate at at low a was was 26%

20:31so again if he could stay if he can keep the strikeout rate in that 20 to 24% range and just continue to have better overall at bats then yeah I think there's a chance you could see low D's trying to predict anything but what's going to happen next year with the CBA and all of that is just impossible. But there is certainly a chance that we could see Alex Lodys in Atlanta next season if he keeps progressing like this and and continues to show that better plate discipline at the double a level Johnny flex says which other nationally team should we be rooting for to win to set up the most favorable posties and matchups for the braves to make it to the world series. I didn't mind losing to the dimebacks because it helped them stay in the hunt potentially push fill the out I'm going to be honest this isn't something I'm really tracking or even looking yet you want to win the world series. You're going to have to beat the Dodgers the Brewers the Phillies the dimebacks the Padres like these are all good teams that the Braves could be at their best but also could lose to. It doesn't really matter to me I mean those are the teams that you're going to have to face.

21:32Sure if you could line it up where maybe you get the diamond backs in the first round and maybe you you face the Brewers in the the CS. I don't know again you're going to have to beat some good team that's not really something I'm using a lot of brain power on Calming Donald could we really see Joe Mines play a role in the post season this this year giving he hasn't pitched in two years drew also asked do you think Joe Mines is still here next year so to answer Drew's questions no I don't well unless he's willing to come on like a minor league like prove it type of deal maybe since he has that connection with the Braves I could see that happening they've done that with pictures in the past like Tyler Matic and others. I do not think we'll see him in this post season either. The guy hasn't pitched in nearly two years and so to all of a sudden trust him to be on your post season roster yeah there's just no shot that that's happening Calvin Finner says are you at all concerned with ball ones chase and with percentages I know it's only his second season but it's been a fairly significant jump which then makes me wonder if he should be back more in the middle of the line up so just to give you the numbers.

22:37Drake ball ones chase percentage in 2025 was 28.8% his chase percentage this year is 33.6% so he is chasing 5% of the time more often and with that his with rate has gone from 19.5% in his room season all the way up to 24.7% this year so that is a bit alarming I handed at it earlier another alarming thing is the numbers against lefties which he he did better against lefties last year than he did righties. But this year the OPS is down around 700 against lefties still holding your own as they left handed hitter but not nearly what we've seen in the past look Drake is somebody that can still make great contact out of the zone we have seen him a lot this year go down and get a pitch you know an inch off the dirt and pull it into the chop house he is a very good bad ball hitter. But it does give me some Michael Harris vibes at times when he is chasing that much and so overly aggressive and look Michael Harris is having a great year Drake ball was having a great year so it's not like you can't be successful but one of the concerns that I have about a Michael Harris at an Aussie obviously said it can lead to these highs and lows now it's for Drake ball when his last 15 games it's a 279 average a 323 on base a 459 slug over his last 30.8%

23:58over his last 30 to a 279 you know 323 393 slug down a little bit slash line as well so he's still getting his hits on base though is is lowered and you're seeing that with a lot of braves players his on base season overall this year is actually higher than it was last year but he's just so aggressive he chases so much you wonder if it pitchers might start adjusting to that a little bit and he's going to have to adjust back to it I think he isn't take a shot at Michael Harris I think he is a good enough. He's a good enough hitter where he could make that adjustment if he sees pitchers start throwing him more and more out of zone because I know he's going to chase I think Drake is a more competent I feel like I'm really taking shots at Michael Harris here I think Drake is a good enough hitter to be able to make that adjustment and start laying off of those we also have to remember that this includes his terrible stretch that he had coming when he was rushed back from injury where a lot of these strikeouts and stuff are coming from so I'm not overly concerned about about Drake.

24:58We got to see how these chase and whip numbers shape out you know down the stretch. But I would say I'm maybe at a three and a half to a four on the worry meter right now with Drake Baldwin and some of these chase and whip numbers that he has are to lot more questions left to get to on today's Twitter male bag of a silver wrap up with the rest of your questions here next. To all Saturdays are already packed with reasons to get excited and this season Fandall is giving fans even more ways to get in on every matchup back your favorite team build a same game parlay bet team props or make your picks on the biggest games the weekend and throughout the season keep an eye on the fan tool app for even more ways to get rewarded with a full slate of college football every Saturday there are plenty of opportunities to follow the games and find new ways to get involved there are so many games happening throughout the day and I like being able to do it. I like being able to jump from one match up to the next having fan dual gives you more ways to get involved across the entire Saturday instead of just focusing on one game also please make sure you check out Fandall dot com for all of the latest odds not just on college football but baseball as well as we round out the season and check out Fandall dot com slash play with a plan for help on how you can play responsibly and if you have a gambling problem please call 1 800 gambler for more information visit Fandall dot com to get started today.

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35:19You do got this. Use as directed keep out of retry of children. Thank you for making Locked-On your first listen every day. For your second listen, find the all-night Locked-On MLB game night. Every game, every night until a World Series Champion is crowned. Get local analysis on a national scale. Find MLB game night on Locked-On MLB on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts.