ATP Indian Wells Quarterfinal Picks – 3/12/26 (Ep. 616)

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And welcome everyone to the tennis game podcast here on of the sports game podcast. Now we're

currently Thursday morning early Thursday morning around 2 a.m. Eastern time on March 12th. I'm

Rosalio Skyrim show once again going solo for this pod. It should be a fun episode time to get

into the quarter finals and Indian well. So we're going to break down those four matches in a few

minutes for getting to actually break down of the quarter finals a brief reminder sport the show

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contest. So starting off with the recap of what happened in the last episode for the lock and

dog picks. Unfortunately not good. Now it was a while ago. It was back in the first round.

But we did lose the lock and dog for the lock way. Damned when the first set and the match of

minus one 25 against uga carabelli and he somehow lost in straight sets. He had a couple of breakpoint

chances. He had a couple of set points I believe and he blew all of them. Not breaking uga carabelli

on hard court is impressive and damn found away. What a frustrating player to watch. But either way

that did not work out as he lost in straight sets. For the dog kind of a hard breaker. We had

Colonium a team total over 12 and a half against Fonseca at plus 100. He served for the set at 65.

So we had a perfect script for us and then he choked it and ended up losing in straight sets.

So we needed one more hold to get the seven and a guaranteed third set draw and we didn't get

either of those things because he choked and then he fell apart. So a bit of a hard breaker

there for the dog as for damn I mean that was just horrible. But either way picked up a loss there

for the lock and dog. Now jumping a couple of rounds to the most recent round the round of 16.

We had a couple of close matches but it was mainly lopsided. Now for the actual order of matches

they are fees I'm going to be eating Felix in straight sets. Should have been three of Felix

will have five nothing in the second set breaker had a couple of set points choke those away

and then fees eventually did find a way to win in straight sets for the upset good to win for the

Frenchman after that he saw it's verif who'd be Tiafo and straight sets never end out as

verif kind of coasted there from start to finish. TM won an absolute war against Fakina as he ended

up having to fight off two match points and then found a way to win in the final set breaker.

Another Fakina match with match points where ends up losing so there we go a nice win there for

TM tons of mental toughness for the young American and he showed it once again nice come back

but a classic Fakina loss that we have seen many times before center beat Fonseca into tie breaks a

really really entertaining match. Fonseca gave center run for his money led actually in the first set

tie break had a couple of set points and center just erased them a simply putt but center played

very well Fonseca played well to and center found a way to win both breakers in right to a straight set

win is on nori bit at jacotta in the the really in the rana 16 match question mark and that was an

easy win for nori we got the job on their in straight sets. Hitchicada good run and that

of being boobluck in the previous round in three but nori was too much and nori kind of hosted

to a nice and easy straight set win. Mevadev continues owning michaelson as he won in straight sets

keeps rolling showed up late to the event because of the of course issues safety wise in Dubai

and then he was able to eventually make the trip over and he's been great so ended up being

michaelson again in straight sets just a bad match up for michaelson who is I'd say a worse version

of Mevadev trying to rally a lot serve is much weaker for michaelson and Mevadev's a bad match up

but either way I'd say a pretty easy win for Mevadev there so alcoraz go god mode for a set

and a half as he ended up being rude in straight sets and then you had the war of all wars the final

match which was draper outlasting jokovic in a third set tie break so I'm kind of going to skip

over the other matches for recap I'm going to deep dive this one because this is one of the best

matches of the entire year it's tough to find a better match out of three sets of course jokovic

and alcoraz back in Cincinnati a couple years ago I think it's still the best three set match

of all time but this one was really really good so jokovic won the first set then he ended up

getting broken towards the end of the second set and he ended up losing the second set then he

fell behind a break immediately you saw a crazy rally which is one of the points of the year one

of the points of jokovic's entire career which he ended up winning and then eventually you saw

draper get the break so draper serving it out eventually for the match and it completely

chokes it you couldn't handle the moment you fell apart jokovic broke back and was able to

eventually go to a tie break then draper was still clearly nervous and eventually did give

him a mini break to jokovic and you know what he found away despite choking in the actual

service game to close out the match he found a way to survive and to come back for a mini break

down against jokovic in the tie break as eventually found a way to win really really incredible match

another else to say it was two and a half hours of phenomenal quality of tennis and you saw draper

find a way to come back from I believe he was four three down as he ended up winning seven five

in the breaker but what a match another else to really say it will probably be the match of

the tournament now of course if you end up getting center alcoraz then maybe something's going to

change but that was definitely the match of the events so far phenomenal stuff I thought draper

is going to choke once he blew the lead when he served for the match but props to him because I

think most people would have rolled over and he did not so good job at draper jokovic gave it

a run but unfortunately for him fell short and unfortunately for us because we had jokovic

win the quarter obviously but still a great one for draper great overall tennis match and hopefully

you ended up watching some of it because it was very very entertaining now for the recap of the

quarters of the event that we gave out pre tournament so far okay I'd say not amazing not terrible

for the first quarter with alcoraz a minus 400 spoiler if he's like minus 2000 in the quarter

finals so there you go a second quarter we did lose jokovic at 160 but we do a mevadev at 250

so we'll see if you beat draper in the quarter final match we have mevadev there at plus 250

third quarter we did lose philix at 275 but we do as verive at plus 2 25 and for the last quarter

center was minus 3 25 and there you go massive favorite obviously so we still have a chance to

sweep all the quarters uh right now we feel very good of course but alcoraz and center

it goes duh as for the other ones mevadev's a pretty decent favorite and verive is a favorite as

well so can't really complain too much of for the quarters we'll see how the matches end up going

on thursday but we still can sweep uh so definitely a pretty good result so far for the outrights

I mean we took two people of course they're still around we've alcoraz at 150 and center 160

so nothing else to report there so far can't complain once again we can still sweep everything

so hopefully knock on what it goes in our favor but long way to go we'll see how the events

or how the matches end up going on thursday anyway quickly checking the comment section

as he henry asking about this verive match I'll mention this verive match in a second

but henry does think that fees is alive at plus 140 but either way a point as I'll mention

that match in a few minutes for you it into the actual breakdown of the quarter finals in

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dot fandal dot com gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler welcome back everyone to the tennis

game podcast finish going through the recap of the red and sixteen down to move on into the breakdown

of the quarter finals so starting off the first match on the card we have the match Henry want to

talk about zerev taking on fees and after this one's very favorite is about minus 170 give or take

fees around plus 140 for the spread minus one that for zerev minus one thirty two of four fees

you have the plus one and a half at plus one oh two for the over under in games i see twenty three

and a half now for the actual head head that has been quite competitive in the past there has

been some bad blood between them in the past now they faced off last year a couple of times

first of all in the room which was the recent meeting actually zerev did win in straight sets

first that was a breaker then you're right away with it in Miami though on hard court they had a

war and fees did win in three as you lost the first set and came back any one six four in the

final set but there's been one common theme here it is usually a war they have actually split the

last four meetings and then i will point out that four of the last five meetings have not ended

in straight sets they've been very close and we'll see if history repeats itself here

on the thursday now four of the actual uh once again path so far fees has been quite good he's

not dropped a set yet i'll be prismich in a set in a retirement beat for sovich's in straight sets

and be Felix in straight sets should have dropped a set was down five nothing in the tie break but

you know what doesn't matter as long as you get the job done and he found a way to come back and

win in straight sets zerev though has had a pretty good showing so far beat the routine in straight

sets had a war against an akashima which he won in three and then beat tiapho convincingly in straight

sets both guys look pretty good is veribus historically has not been amazing in this event before

you can argue that it's his works one thousand of them but you know what when he's winning and he's

in the quarter finals so far it looks pretty good after flaming out and a kapoko about a week or two

ago now four of the actual match in itself do i think this verib should be favored yes do i think

it's a fair price i can understand it but you know what Henry said he thinks fees is live i think

it will be close i think that fees can definitely make this competitive now i'm not sure if he's

going to win he's proven though on hard court he's actually two and oh against veribus in the head

to head so historically if you think fees is live then this is definitely the surface you want him

on against zerev because verib has beaten him on clay before and he also has beaten him on grass before

so zerev currently over against fees on hard court i think fees is alive to win it i think

Henry's right i think that the pricing makes sense but i think fees has looked very good and i

think that he looks fully healthy which is nice to see i see it being close either way so i like

the over i think it's going to be very competitive matchup i think three sets is a pretty likely outcome

for this one but based on that i am picking a bit of length involved so therefore the dog's

going to be live because i'm picking fees to win at least one set so for me i'm going to go with

the over in this one i see it being close but i think that once again fees is playing very well

and i think he can frustrate zerev we've seen him frustrate zerev before so i'll go for the over

in this one i think we're going to see a war in the first match of the quarter finals moving on

into the second match look at the matchup between ten and center on like this verib match this

line is not close center is about minus 1700 tns around nine to one for the spread minus five and

a half for center a bit of plus money there so you can find four and a half juiced if you want

that instead tn plus five and a half minus one thirty seven for the over under i see 19 and a

half games or 20 and a half games set spread center and straight sets is minus three seventy five so

there you go if you want to shop around though i did find a minus two sixty but once again it's

supposed to be one way traffic the phase of one time last year the only meeting ever was actually

the title match in Beijing and center baritone i won six two six two so not exactly a great showing

there by tn he had a couple of marathons that was the event where he ended up beating mevadev

in a crazy marathon as well so you can argue tn ran in a gas but center the point is we know is

amazing on hard court tn's been quite good in the event so far couple of wars though a beat

Walton in straight sets non easy match there that one did have a collection of tie breaks which tn

eventually did win but non easy match in the first round then he beat shelton in three shelton was

definitely not a hundred percent but tn found a way to win in the third set but shelton was definitely

compromised over the course of that match and beat faquina but our mind of faquina did have multiple

match points which it choked away it was on tn serve but still tn barely survived the rana 16

as for center it has been a light work so far for him one convincingly in the first round killed

chapo as well and be funseka two tie breaks but funseka was playing very well so that was definitely

a high level match i'm not going to row center for going to two tie breaks against funseka

he was up a break in the second he gave it back so he could blame mayor i guess but funseka

was playing very well so that was a competitive match up with self on seka berry paul in the previous

round centers looked very good simply putt i saw exactly a shock to say but center and alcharez

had been by far the two bus players here as far as i'm concerned and the i test does back it up

even though alcharez did drop a set to rennetch in a previous round but the point is center

i think it's too good i understand tn can rally but the issue is going to remain the same

center has the rare balance of accuracy and power and tn yes i know it keeps the ball

still not a great server and he's also going to be on the back foot a lot in almost every single

rally so if center is able to keep the control aggression and the accuracy tn's got no chance

just simply put i think it's a really bad match up for tn i understand tn if center ends up

having a bit of an error fest then tn can prolong points and he could find a way to maybe

steal a break and beyond but i think center is too good i think center is going to be able to bully

tn around the court tn's not a great server center is a good returner anyway i'm not sure tn's

going to break center in the entire match but i feel good about center breaking tn in each of

the first two sets i think center wins going away i'm not sure it's going to be six two six two

but i can see a lot of side of match here tn was pretty fortunate to get by against faquina

i think center is going to destroy him simply put i'll give you center to win comfortably six

three six three it's kind of the score line i have but i think it gets ugly and i think it gets

very very i'd say one sided quickly in this match give me center to bury him it's kind of my

thoughts on this one moving on to the next match which is arguably the closest match on the entire

board basically the same uh between the varev match and the mebedev match mebedev though is a

little bit cheaper is minus one forty five of the money line draper's around plus one twenty

four of these spread here i see one and a half mebedev's favorite and minus one thirty for the

minus one and a half draper plus one and a half is minus one fifteen four the over under i see

twenty three and a half games now four of the head registry mebedev is one of no face off on

clay two years ago in a room and mebedev did win in straight sets doesn't matter not really but

i want to mention the mebedev i know that his weakest surface is on clay he did win a one thousand

title on clay but still we know it's his worst surface and draper we know it did make a one

thousand final last year on clay losing a root in the final so draper is objectively better than

mebedev on clay and he did a losing straight sets but that was two years ago different surface

and not going to read too much into it mebedev though has been rolling i mentioned it before

won the title in due by how to walk over in the final it's Greeks for be to be low handling be

biased handling and be michelson handling so i know that to be low does have some firepower

but overall not exactly i'd say the toughest path in the world from mebedev now yet a couple of

clay guys on there to be low has one titles on all three surfaces before so i guess he's a bit more

well-rounded than by as but the point is to be low is not exactly known for being an amazing hard

core player and mebedev kind of just buried him by as we know he played pretty well early on

beat will hashka but he's not exactly historically known as being a great hard core player and he can't

serve so we saw mebedev win easily michelson beat fritz in an upset but still the point is michelson

is a guy who i still think needs to improve the serve and i think that simply put mebedev's a bad

matchup for him because michelson's serve can be quite vulnerable so a pretty easy path

mebedev but you know what you made it look even easier because he's been rolling so far over the

last week and a half for draper he had a bit of a tougher go of it defending champion he beat a

goot in three tough showing there in the first set came back and he won comfortably in three

beats are on the low in the straight sets and beat jokovic in an absolute war in the match on

wednesday now the problem here for draper which is obvious but i have to at least mention it

just allowed it is draper's a lack of recovery time for this match he was the last match on

wednesday as you remember he did miss a bunch of time at the end of last year after the us open

he ended up retiring midway through or he withdrew from the event did not come back until february

had one davis cup match showed up for two matches and do buy and then showed up here for this event

so just for reference and it's been a long time it's been a really long time a draper has not

played a match on back-to-back days since June of last year so you can argue fatigue will play a

big factor i of course mention the same handicap only faded fees against Felix in Montpellier a couple

weeks ago draper did look very good for pretty much the entire match against jokovic besides the

little hiccup he had at the end however it took a lot out of him and i do wonder if he will be able

to physically recover with no days off in between to take on mevadev and his first back-to-back match

day since june 21st of 2025 it's a really bad spot for draper mevadev especially is the opponent

who's going to make points extremely long and i can see this turning into a very tough matchup

now for the actual spot alone and based on current form i think the play has been mevadev

i understand draper could beat him draper is really good especially on these courts

as he beat alchorize year last year in the route to the title but for the actual scheduling spot

with really no back-to-back matchday experience recently in basically i mean we're pushing like

10 months at this point since he's had one of these i think it's a really bad spot for draper

so i'm gonna go mevadev i think that it's a great form mevadev that we're currently seeing

and i do think right now he is a very dangerous player to beat the truth is if jokovic ended up

beating draper i might have taken mevadev anyway i think mevadev is very alive to win this match

maybe even in straight sets but i think this price actually kind of cheap for the actual spot

we'll see if draper bounces back or not if he had a day off in between i might reconsider

but with a no-day off in between after that absolute war i think draper might have a tough go of it

i think it's fatigue to play a factor he's at durability issues in the past as well

it's a bit of a terrible spot give me mevadev in this one as he Caleb also mentioning best three

set matches of all time good call that is the curious and feder one in Miami which i believe

was all tie breaks uh which feder did win in three that's a great one as well

i don't remember if there was a single break in that match

but i remember the mevadev between the like shot and the tie break but i know feder did win

and then tearous match is racquet uh but that's definitely a great one that's definitely up there

but either way a good call good shot out there Caleb but i'll go from mevadev now or a reminder

we already have action on them to win the quarter at plus two fifty so we're priced in already

but i do think it's a really bad spot for draper i see mike agreeing he thinks that uh mevadev's

going to keep her rolling he thinks draper left it all out there that's how i feel

is not even just the fact that you were able to win despite collapsing at the end but you be

jokovic for the first time in your career mentally that can really set up for a serious letdown spot

against an opponent who's going to make you run around like a lunatic for three hours if needed

it's a bad spot for draper he might win but i don't think the price is in my opinion accurate

i think mevadev should be closer in my opinion to zverev range alec minus 170 but a 145 or so i'll

think mevadev than the line is pretty cheap moving on a two the last match for the quarter finals

to be honest we didn't exactly save the best for last damn this line's lopsided alcharez roughly

minus three thousand nori is around eleven to one for the spread alcharez minus five and a half

and you're looking at the over under being around nineteen and a half now historically speaking

nori's actually given alcharez some problems now i want to point out that for the recent meetings alcharez

did a lose the last meeting on hard court indoors in paris last year as a nori did win in three

phase off in winbelton last year and alcharez won in straight sets based off on clay 2023 nori did win

in three alcharez got hurt towards the end of that match up but either way nori did win the title

in that match it's been very very competitive now i do want to point out though in the hard court

history between them they have faced off only a let's say a handful of times on hard court

alcharez won the us open back in twenty twenty one in straight sets in e to wells in twenty twenty two

so this event a couple years ago alcharez did win in straight sets since an adi nori did beat alcharez

in three and we saw nori beat alcharez in paris last year in three so nori has actually split

the four crew meetings in hard court against alcharez now i want to point out that alcharez has not

lost an outdoor match since winbelton so alcharez has been on fire and he's basically unbeatable

outdoors right now but either way for the path he's been good now we saw him win in doha he had a

phenomenal match there against fees in the final beat the metrov handily a lost the first set to

render knotch now was close but he was able to kind of dominate the last two sets and then he

beat rude in a dominant set and the tie break but alcharez is really in control the entire match

and the breaker was never in doubt so alcharez has looked very very good and we'll see if he keeps

rolling here on this one nori has been good in the new walls in the past and you know what he's

comfortable once again the mcdonald in straight sets beat them in hour in straight sets and beat

hichikata in straight sets so not exactly in the greatest competition either dimmin hour is a good

win then again we saw him lose to kipson in mexico so who knows a dimmin hour might have peaked too

early this season and maybe the regression is happening right now but hichikata in the rannis

16s a joke and mcdonald has been mainly a challenger dash qualifier over the last year or so

i don't mind mcdonald i think he's a pretty good overall player but recently the form has not

been very good for him and he's really been in at say a limited number of adp events

a recently because he's not been good enough so a very fortunate draw for nori he still

beat dimmin hour in the middle but still hichikata in the rannis 16s an absolute joke but either

a point is alcharez minus three thousand do i think there's any value in alcharez at all

no alcharez in straight sets for references minus five thirty you're looking at nori to an a

set in this one plus three thirty for the over under in games alcharez team total over twelve and a

half is plus one fifteen under minus one fifty and nori over seven and a half games is plus one

oh seven the under is minus one thirty nine now alcharez should win in straight sets

but do i think the pricing is correct no a nori has beaten alcharez multiple times before

intimidation is something that i feel it doesn't get talked about enough when it comes to tennis

because a lot of people are shell shocked and you assume that alcharez and sinner are going to win

and the second that you see a little bit of adversity for the challenger it doesn't go well

and as soon as they fall behind against sinner alcharez they immediately roll over and they get blown

out it's kind of how it goes but nori's proven before he can beat alcharez he has one two of the

last three he's beaten alcharez i believe three times in their careers so nori will not be afraid

he might get blown out anyway because alcharez is significantly better than him but nori i think

he can make this competitive i'm not saying once again he's going to want to set or anything

but i do think alcharez is going to win obviously but i i can't lay this i really can't nori's a

guy who actually has given alcharez problems in the past and i know alcharez has improved this game

because some of those matches were dated but you know what i think nori could keep the somewhat

competitive i don't mind maybe going for an alcharez team total over at 12 and a half we saw a

root get blown out on the first set he still forced a tie break in the second set so i didn't mind

maybe going for a team total over as an option if you want it to go for a potential combo play

you can go for a dangerous option which is the alcharez team total over parlayed with the nori

team total over and maybe do the same game parlay that way but you know what i'll be different

i don't see any value on alcharez at all if he covers five and a half so be it but i really just

don't see enough of an edge and nori has given him problems in the past so i'll go for the alcharez

team total over at 12 and a half all i need is one competitive set game is seven five or seven

six and we're in good shape it's all i'm asking for but either way i think that nori can keep at

least one set close before alcharez eventually wins in straights but i don't mind the team total

for alcharez at plus money as my main thought for this one very tough though with alcharez being

minus five thirty to an in straight sets to find value you know what i'll pick nori to keep it

somewhat competitive as my contrarian angle for this one i know let's go wrap it up for the break

down of the four quarter fundamentals and you know else time to move on into the lock in dog picks

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gambling problem call 1-800 gambler welcome back everyone to the tennis game podcast finish

going through the preview of the quarter finals in indian wells kind of move on into the lock and

dog picks for the lock going with complete chalk here but i said before i think center is going to

dominate i will put money where mouth is give me center team total under 12 and a half at minus

125 i think he steam rolls tm and i think he wins comfortably center and straight sets is around minus

260 i saw a couple minus 300s he's not going to drop a set according to the odds he has not dropped

the set yet in the entire event and tm and got buried in the first ever meeting basing last year

on hard court tm one four games so look i understand tn is a player that i like

lot of mental toughness very very annoying to face because he keeps the ball imply all the time

but center has so much more firepower and just such a better serve i think tn is going to have

serious problems tn was fortunate to get by against the kina and i do think that center is going

to get the job done center had a bit of a scare against fun seka who's one of the only guys in

the entire tour who can match center fire power wise tn cannot do that i think center is going to

roll i think center wins and straight sets so give me a pretty solid reduction of juice once again

straight sets of minus 260 give me straight sets with the 075 or 76 and it's minus 125 or in theory

if center loses and straight sets then you probably get there anyway which is not going to happen

but still technically another draw but center should dominate i said before 6363 i think it will be

very very lopsided give me center team total under 12 and a half as my lock for the show

for my dog going back to the first match between fees and zverev give me the over two and a half

sets at plus 136 for the last five meetings did not end in straight sets both hard court meetings

also they're not in straight sets fees has given zverev problems before zverev is minus 170 give or take

but he's had a couple of easier matches lately but this season it has been full of marathons for zverev

seven of his last 11 matches did not end in straight sets so zverev has been dropping sets

regularly so far this season and fees has the game to frustrate zverev is proving it before fees

might win outright he might not but i think it's a war either way so give me the t give me the

once again the script of a marathon as my dog give me the over two and a half sets as my dog for

the show so once again the lock and dog for the quarters the locks and to be on center team total

under 12 and a half against tn at minus 125 for the dog give me fees and zverev over two and a half

sets at plus 136 anyway that's gonna wrap it up for the show we'll back once again for the semis

in and in wells till next time fun and twitter is your radio good luck to all of you and all of your

bets bye everyone

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