ATP US Open Semifinal Picks – 9/10/26 | Tennis Gambling Podcast (Ep. 705)

0:00The tennis gambling podcast and sports game podcast now we're cuz brought to you by the free real football contest three cab for grabs And today sports game box calm slash free roll And welcome everyone to the tennis game podcast here in the sports game podcast No, we're currently Thursday morning early Thursday morning around 120 am Eastern time on our scourge show It'll break down the men's semi-final matches. We already did the women's episode a couple hours ago We're gonna do the men's episode now these very match ended early against his ancho So the point is we were able to get the lines out early into record So we're not gonna really recap the lock-and-dogs because the women's matches haven't happened yet for the semis Of course these matches on the men's side taking place on Friday the women's matches are taking place on Thursday to keep that in line But either way we're gonna break down the matches early because we have lines already so why not? Before getting to the actual match breakdowns or minor that you can check out the podcast on YouTube Spotify or Apple Like subscribe on YouTube also find the podcast on

1:03Spotify or Apple SGP and tennis game podcast like subscribe on YouTube We've been reading in a review to help the show grow on Spotify or Apple Paul's reminder took them or store we've ought to be merchandise on the tennis game podcasts on the site We have sweatshirts we have t-shirts we have mugs we have hats different cars very affordable Thing like the options and we also have shirts for other shows as well For example the NBA gambling podcast has merch to pretty much every show on the platform has merch So check it out lots of options for you Maybe you'll find something that you do like and if you want to help out with the fundraiser That we're doing for Columbia after the earthquake make sure to check out the link sports gambling podcast comms Slash read slash a relief tell about today sports game box comms slash relief to help donate to the cost Moving on though to the recap. We will you know what recap lock and dog for the last Men's episode we did it in the women's episode two will go a bit more deep dive into this one for the lock and dog And then exploding an incredible day of tennis on Tuesday Wednesday was awful I'll get into that in a second, but Tuesday might have been one of the greatest

2:09US Open days of all time because if you factor in the two women's matches all four matches went the distance So we had two men men's five setters and two women's three setters all on the same day now that a light into the Alcharez and Shelton match ending at about four in the morning and people were complaining about it But that only happened because every other match was an absolute war and we actually had three of the four matches And in a final set tie break, which is crazy to think about for the lock though yet Tiafo on the money one to minus 142 he had a thrilling comeback against Mikkelson Mikkelson was up two sets and a break served for the match and he ended up choking and Tiafo came back and he ended up winning I'll go a bit more deep dive on that in a second, but I might as come back win four big foe for the dog look We knew Kishon was going to win We mentioned specifically in the podcast that there was decent chance blocks was going to retire mid match Which is why I did not want the minus one nap sets And it's why I didn't want really any type of spread on the match

3:13I thought blocks would quit in the middle of it So we ended up being completely right about Kishon off the problem was he was like minus 140 or so And we wanted plus money for the dog So we ended up taking Alcharez money long as a parlay piece because we figured Shelton wouldn't beat him and you know what Shelton did Took about four and a half hours and he wanted a final set tie break But that sabotage the parlay as Alcharez as a de juicer ended up sabotaging the two pick But the Kishon off-read was so accurate that it really felt forced and Zvarib of course was too big of a favorite that taking him wouldn't have actually made it Plus money either so Alcharez fell short The greatest fit set player of all time lost to Ben Shelton it happens But either way I did lose the dog but did end up winning the lock moving on to the recap though of the quarter finals You had Tiafo who somehow came back as he was getting absolutely killed the man could not land a first serve for the entire first two sets Basically combined and to read off the actual serving numbers for Tiafo in those sets

4:18I mean usually his first serve is low But it's usually around like mid-50s give or take for the set breakdown Tiafo landed 42% first serve He landed 35% first serve in the second set and third set he was at 53 fourth set 63 fifth set back down to 58 the first two sets though The man could not land a first serve and Mikkelson was destroying his second serve then Tiafo Found a way to get back into it Mikkelson we saw him stumble a bit against that chivalry as he served it out for that match And we saw Mikkelson double fault the couple of times in that game against Etchiverry eventually fought off a break pointer to and held on to win But I noticed that nerves got to him in that match and I thought it might happen again And it did he double faulted immediately on the first two points when serving for the match got broken They didn't got broken again to lose the set he went from up five four to losing I think he was up five three actually and he ended up losing the final four games in the third set

5:21Then on top of that Mikkelson was up three nothing one break in the fifth set And he blew that too So Mikkelson had golden chances to put the match away Tiafo hung around and I specifically mentioned in the Tiafo moneyline breakdown Mikkelson was 0 and 8 in fifth sets in his career I know that some of those were next gen finals matches, which is first the four sets I first the four to win each set. So not exactly the same But the point is he is an abysmal fifth set player who seems to always shrink mentally in these big spots and Mikkelson shrunk again Tiafo got the job done won the final set tie break and then Mikkelson Immediately broke down crying Tiafo went to hug him after basically a four and a half hour marathon The match itself took four hours and 38 minutes Mikkelson lost and immediately started crying on Tiafo shoulder while still standing on the court So Mikkelson immediately unraveled mentally throughout the entire I'd say back end of the third set onward

6:23Then again in the fifth set But he was emotionally spent he broke down crying and he lost again in the fifth set fun fact Every single grand swam the loss that he's had this year all four of them were in fifth sets So he's now oh and nine in fifth sets He did play well in terms of overall stamina It wasn't like he got tired. It just felt like he He definitely looked tight out there and Tiafo was able to make enough passing shots to win Including the passing shot for the win on that point But we back Tiafo knowing it was not going to be an easy win either way Thought it would go four or five and knowing Mikkelson is an abysmal fifth set player We leaned into that and Tiafo got it done Was the way we thought he was going to win no We did not think he was going to go down two sets and a break with Mikkelson serving for the match But same result nice one there for Tiafo for the other match. So I ended up seeing on Once again Tuesday you ended up seeing Shelton

7:24Beat Alcaraz in a four hour 28 minute match Alcaraz won the first set tie break Shelton had a lead lost the final four points in the The first set tie break Alcaraz actually served for the set and he got broken So kind of back and forth there But Alcaraz once you won the tie break he kind of thought Shelton blew his opportunity and he would unravel Not so much Alcaraz definitely dealing with some wrist issues still Shelton buried him six one into the second set one the third set six three then Shelton Punted the fourth set six one and you figure bold strategy Considering the fact that Alcaraz is the best fifth set player ever that he was going to hand over the fourth set and try to beat him in five Then Shelton had a couple of break points midway through the a fifth set Alcaraz had a break point in the two-two return game didn't convert Shelton had three break points in the A four three return game for him So he had a couple of chances to serve it out to win six three instead Alcaraz fought it all a couple of nice points there And then Alcaraz had a mini break he was up five three in the tie break and you figure you know what he's probably gonna win

8:29He's Alcaraz he seems to always win these big matches and you know what Shelton did not go away and Shelton wrapped it up with an incredible 146 mile per hour ace on match point in the biggest match of his life So props of Shelton I did not think he would beat Alcaraz that Alcaraz was playing too well And I thought that eventually the unforced error count would get up there for Shelton But good for him First time ever beating Alcaraz first and ever winning a set off him on hardcore He was on four on sets on hardcore against them But do you sabotage our parlay? But now we have a guaranteed American in the final Shelton or Tiafo is our guaranteed spot in the US open final taking on the winner of either Sverev or Gashanov but we have a guaranteed American in the final which is very fun. Maybe Maybe the 23-year men's grand slam drought will end. We'll see what happens But either way two absolute epics that totaled to about nine hours of tennis

9:30And that was definitely one of the best days of tennis of all time I'm moving on note to the matches for Wednesday the exact opposite the women's matches were good Both the women's matches ended up going to three Promo was the men's matches when basically two and a half sets in three As Gashanov beat blocks in a retirement which we did predict thought the back issue would come back the bite him again Apparently was a rib issue that also kind of led to the back But either way blocks was down two sets and a break and said why am I here? I can barely move any ended up quitting. So not a shock there But for the other match does and shop was off of a five hour marathon Against Gia we thought he would get destroyed any did we picked Verve to three nothing at plus money back out there Only one set was competitive second set had a seven five the other two were six two and six one But either way does and show did actually have a set point and a break point He had a break point into the three two return game and he had a set point into the five four return game

10:30Did not convert boomerang broken and then Verve held that out to win the second set But does and shop well good for him made to the quarter finals He played a five hour plus match the round prior we thought he was going to be cooked But either way point is he ended up being cooked as Verve beat him comfortably in straight sets. So for the actual Quarter finals we had one great day of tennis all time great day of tennis and one awful day of tennis But either way a point is definitely a fun collection of matches we have coming up and hopefully the semi-final matchups End up delivering now for the recap of the outrights for the men's side of for the actual quarter picks etc Overall pretty good. It was mainly chalky now alcharez did not work out We had him at plus money to win the quarter which of course ended up losing however We had zveris won the first quarter at minus 110 We had hoder too, but Verve got the job done for the second quarter though We ended up losing entirely we had fritz Felix and kaboly that did not work out fourth quarter

11:32We had alcharez fees and paul those did not work out either third quarter We had jokobitch and akashima and most importantly saving best for last in the in addition to the money line We had tiafo at plus 800 so you know what It wasn't exactly an amazing Outrite episode like we got the women's sweep We got all four quarter winners correctly However for the men's we got half of it right with zveris and minus 110 But tiafo plus 800 single handedly dragged us into the green of four the actual episode So tiafo did us a double solid for the lock and for the outright Plus 800 we know he always shows up here for the us open in good form And he survived and advanced 8 to 1 Shout out to tiafo for getting it done for the hours to actually win the event We still have life we lost fees immediately in a donation at 12 to 1 lost alcharez at plus 260 Was a great price he was like minus 170 and during the quarter finals But we have zveris at plus 33 who's the prohibitive favorite to win the event

12:33We'll see if he wins His second grand slam of the year But plus 33 is a good spot Massive favorite against gashana will be favored against either tiafo or sheldon and hypothetical final But the point is varyv still alive and we have a pretty good price at plus 33 Gonna wrap it up though for the recap of the quarter finals and move on into the breakdown of the semis taking place on friday For that the amount of the brought to buy our sponsor check out edge boost the visa debit card for online a gambling Earned at the point 5% cashback on eligible gaming spending and make sure you check out the great perks of No deposit fees plus instant 24 7 365 access to deposits that clear in minutes also a reminder that you can check out the actual platform at edjbou's dot io use code hpn when you sign up to claim your exclusive offer 100 dollar deposit match simply sign up deposit 100 bucks and let's support no the that should be in sent You and you'll get an extra 100 dollars check out edjbou's dot io code hpn and sign up For a one-time 100 dollar deposit match

13:34We're also birthday by clutch parlays they've become for data back predictions Updated live during the games as well got dated odds through every pitch basket and possession Also check out the leaderboard system. They weekly monthly and all-time profil leaderboards If you want to compete with other users and very easy and simple to use dashboard One-stop shop for research to post the opportunities and a great deal as well Get them on free with the code hpn clutch parlays.com promo code sgpn The NFL is right around the corner in the sports gambling podcast is back with our 32 NFL team Previous and of course your chance to win a thousand dollar NFL future with Welcome back everyone to the tennis game podcast finish recapping the quarter finals time to move on into The semifinal previews starting off. I know that right now the match times if not been officially announced yet

14:35Save guests that zveriv and kashana will go first and the late night match will be the americans between tiafo and shalton So for the match and what i think is going to be the first one on the card is verif taking on kashana He's laying about 470 kashana's around plus 390 for the over under. I do see The games at around 20. I'm sorry. See the games at a 38 and a half of 4d total Are you looking at the over under 3 and a half sets to the over at around minus 153 Under is about plus 133 game spread minus five for zveriv plus five for kashana of bit of plus money on the five there for kashana And for the set spread zveriv three nothing is at 160 and you have kashana of plus two and a half at minus 185 For the head dead us verif has been quite good in the head dead However they played two times last year on hard court and they split kashana got injured had to retire and since an adi Was a 75 though in the first set but in toronto they played last year and kashana of beat him as that was the round

15:3616 as he won in a final set tie break So we have seen a couple of close matches recently at least in terms of the last year Kashana of has at least won something in the matchups Zeriv though has been dominant Besides that win for kashana of but he did beat him in montreal 2019 as well Their meetings are very dated but kashana of does have three hard court wins against veriv One was in paris 2018 One was in montreal 2019 and one of course was in toronto last year But three wins on hard court against veriv is still not too shabby and veriv has been in good form recently But so is kashana who was really bad for the last year or two I thought he was washed and suddenly he's back in the semi to the first time in a couple of years And we'll see how he does but both guys look quite good so far into the event Zeriv had some scares lost ended up losing couple of sets to sonnago one in five Lost a couple sets to halos one in five beat to be low three nothing beat our dairy three nothing and beat does and show up three nothing Now to be low had a tie break into the second set

16:37Dardari had a tie break in the third set and does and show up had a seven five with a set point in that set as well So even those veriv has been winning three nothings recently He has allowed opportunities for the opposition actually get potentially a set mean to be low He's mainly a clay guy Dardari is definitely a clay guy both them went to tie breaks and does and show up had a set point So keep that in mind as well But veriv has been good think the door might be open though for kashana of to do a little bit of damage here in this one kashana has been great so far in the event the poor chaga three nothing and that are beating Felix who was a top seed in A four very good win there the bonzi three nothing be tian with the crowd against him in five tian was undefeated in fit sets before that and be blocks In two and a half sets courtesy of a retirement So kashana's had a pretty decent balance between easy opponents and tough opponents I mean tian in New York is tough that was a solid five setter Fielder dominated against and blocks is a talent de player But the injury kind of resulted in basically a buy for kashana of in that one

17:42So the match was pretty simple do I think's veriv's going to win yes I think I'll end up winning and I see Henry mentioning that kashana lost to Tomic winning only five games right before the US open That was in Mexico and now he's suddenly in the semi which is crazy to think about But either way a point is I do things veriv wind up winning this match kashana of I think we'll make it It's a competitive but I think I'll end up losing I think that's veriv right now is serving too well to read off the actual serving numbers for both players Zverev has been serving absolute bombs recently Zverev just for reference is the numbers are pretty similar actually Except he's averaging roughly six more east's poor per match now. He's also a landing classic's veriv 68 plus percent first serve which is insane when you're hitting it about 135 plus on a given basis kashana though is winning 4% more second serve points But he's a landing 12% more for serves So as veriv serves going to be tough to beat and break and I think kashana might have maybe a couple of chances

18:44But for the actual numbers here in terms of break point numbers As veriv has faced 23 break points kashana was face 29 so not that far behind but still for break Points converted Zverev has forced 81 break points and kashana of has forced 55 I mean Zverev is the better return kashana might have a breaker to in store for this matchup But Zverev I think should end up winning in this one probably in four or five But I'm not going to pick a three nothing I think kashana of actually can win a set here And he's been in some semi-finals before in the US open even So it should not be a nervous environment for kashana of he is completely free rolling Nobody give him a chance entering the actual match and everyone's on veriv So Mick I think that once again you're looking at michaelson having a spot Where the draw was open he had a chance to make it to a semi for the first time ever and he completely unraveled I don't know that's gonna happen for kashana of yes I know he's never been to a grand slam final before he has one of one thousand title though to keep that in mind

19:46But I think that kashana will definitely give Zverev all of get handled I think it'll lose But I'm gonna go with the over in this one. I think one up seeing a close matchup I think kashana of ends up winning at least one set and both guys are good servers We've seen a lot of tie breaks lately for each of them in fact tie break in the match as that minus one eighty five Which does bowed well for the over but I do think Zverev one up winning He's minus five thirty in some spots as well I think I'm getting the job done But if you want to go for the or liable which is Once again Zverev to win and both players to win a set that's at around plus one thirty I don't mind that but I'll go for the over as my thoughts on this one moving on to the next matchup The Battle of Americans for a spot in the final you have shalton taking on tiapho shalton massive favorite Minus three ten the perks of beating alchoraz you have tiapho at plus two seventy five For the actual set spread minus one that for shalton is at minus one forty five Tiapho to win two sets is at plus one twenty nine over three and a half sets is minus one seventy five

20:48The under is plus one fifty four for the actual game total is the third nine and a half for the game spread You'll minus four and a half or shalton plus four and a half for tiapho So they faced off four times before Shalton's been quite good a shalton is three in one lifetime against tiapho They have faced off though two times in the us open and they've split a tiapho beat him in five two years ago And they faced off three years ago and shalton beat him in the us open in four now I won't point out though That three of the four meetings did not end in straight sets The one exception was the meeting last year most recent one in DC as shalton did beat tiapho However, it was a seven six six four. It was definitely competitive But shalton got the job done to nothing now for the path so far shalton has dropped a lot of sets drop two against alchoraz And then a beating city pause comfortably three nothing dropped one to shop Dropped one to her catch and dropped one to reach for for tiapho He had a five setter against dam and round one beat sacamoto beat vaturo and mevada of all three nothing

21:50Then went five against michelson and somehow found a way to win. So both guys have dropped sets In the event and the head to head so I see a close matchup Now who do I think it's gonna win? I think shalton's better Tiapho is not been that gradient's lefties lately, which I think which I think bodes well of four of course shalton in this one However, I do think it'll be a close matchup both these guys know each other very well Their friends in general off the court. I see a close matchup We saw a tiapho make the final instance and addy He's been a very good hardcore player over these past couple of summer months But the fact is lefties have given him trouble a recently and I think that'll be an issue in this one for reference by the way his numbers against lefties Well, I'll put it this way. He does drop a lot of sets against lefties you win five against dam But I will point out that each of his last four matches against lefties have not ended in straight sets So tiapho tends to do at a little bit of damage But I think that shalton based on his form and based on his serve It's gonna be tough to beat him if shalton keeps landing 145 on his serves and tiapho keeps serving in the

22:57mid 50% of for his for a serve. I think he's gonna lose just simply put I think tiapho has to land probably around 60% for serve to have a chance And I'm skeptical of that potential I'd say actual as a potential outcome actually happening But I think shalton's gonna win However shalton we know can be quite streaky dropping sets the shop bow and de greeks war I think one bad set couldn't be on the cards here for him We know that shalton is still erratic at times with the enforced error issues And I think you might end up hunting a set. I got shalton in four as my thoughts on this one I think tiapho will win a set But I do think shalton is simply put the better player And I do think even though tiapho got the job done in five against michaelson Being down to nothing and a break to michaelson is caused for concern where shalton had an absolute war against alcharez Punted the first set and still found a win in five. He could have easily won that in four Or even three nothing had he won that first set But he showed a ton of mental toughness and I think he's ready to make his first ever final

23:59I'm gonna go for shalton in this one in four as my thoughts in this matchup Don't mind on the minus one-f sets though at minus one forty five They're up though for the breakdown of the two matches time to move on into the lock and dog picks before get into The lock and dog are one of the brought to buy our sponsor check out our fantasy So you can there's a chance for you to be a millionaire this football season Down on rog and jump into the keep your million start the million dollars and hedge your bets across 20 player projection questions by splitting your cash on higher or lower Keep whatever lands on the winning side if you're zero You're out make it through all 20 rounds and you walk away with whatever's left in bonus funds also Air minor check at the right sign up deal because the mergens select states can now get food percent of hosamatch up to one came bonus funds Our fantasy promo code SG PN. We're also brought to buy cal sheet Trade spreads money lines total futures a much more on cal sheet rate prices and For college and for pro football also trade almost anything on cal sheet so check out the the terms of conditions though Because they do apply and a great actual sign up deal trade 25 bucks and get 25 for free over on cal sheet

25:00Visa code is spandet sign up that's cal sheet promo code SG PN Welcome back everyone to with the tennis game podcast finish it going through the preview of the semifinals in the men's side for Friday in the US Open time to move on into the lock and dog picks Common theme here for the lock and dog I am gonna go with some overs I think we're gonna see a couple of close matches for the lock I'm gonna go with the kashan ovens very of over 37 and a half and minus 121 great price We have seen a lot of long sets between them individually over the last couple of months There's been a seven five or a seven six set in seven straight Zvara matches even the three nothings against to be low and our dairy and was recently disanshulpe All of them also had seven five or seven sixes But kashan was also had a couple of marathons as well has been a seven five or seven six in 12 of his last 17 matches Tie break in the matches that minus 185 so I see at least one tie break but kashan was playing very very well

26:00The path for his verve has been very very weak Yes, he's been good in his actual matches But reading off the opponents once again ended up beating the likes of sonnago We know it was talented but up and down the house as well those two one five to be low There's mainly a clay guy. Darderi is mainly a clay guy and disanshulpe Was his opponent in the quarter finals an absolute joke of a draw Zvara has not faced an actual ranked opponent besides Darderi and he's mainly a clay guy But it's a very easy path so far kashan of those in great form He's beaten him a couple of times on hard court beat him last year in Toronto which which went into the sidings set and a tie break But the point is to be low It's technically ranked actually is ranked 28th But two clay guys mainly now is against a solid baseliner who thrives in three to five sets like kashan of And I think we're gonna see a close matchup. I think Zvara wins But I'll go to Zvara even four But I do think we'll end up getting at least one tie break which bodes well for the over

27:02Give me the over 37 to have games here at minus 121 as my lock Split the two meetings last year in the headdad. I do not see much intimidation for Kashan of in this one dealing with Zvara and Zvara might get tight with dinner before So give me the over as my lock for the show Further the dog gonna go with Shelton to win the match and both players to win a set at plus 130 All reliable we have seen a lot of competitive matchups in the head dead between them They have faced off four times Three and the four did not end in straight sets both career US open meetings did not end in straight sets And Shelton is three and one in the head to head Tiafo look he survived nice job by him The problem is though the lefty damn gave him some problems in the first round big serve But not really much else in my opinion that damn brings to the table and he still was up to sets the one against Tiafo so Tiafo has been playing well But Mikkelsen was all over a second serve. I think Sheldon will do a better job holding serve in comparison to Tiafo

28:03Tiafo's first serve percentage is underwhelming that second serve will get him into trouble like digging his Mikkelsen And Shelton serving though has been really really good so far into the event think Shelton Well simply put out last Tiafo in what I think should be a four set win But Shelton right now is winning about three percent more First serve points. He's also winning roughly about let me just look this up right now He's winning roughly one percent more second serve points But he's landing 69.2 percent of his first serves and Tiafo is at 58.6 For break points faced by the way Tiafo is faced 46 Shelton is face 34 So I see Shelton holding more easily But Shelton has lost at least one set in four was first five matches at this event The one exceptional sissy pass, but even when he wins tends to go minimum of four sets And Tiafo has had a couple of marathon's lately against left these four three left these have forced Tiafo to a

29:04deciding set basically and the point is Tiafo has really not been dominant against left these lately Even went to five seconds dam in the first round of this event I like this spot for Shelton. I think go win but not in straight sets I'll go for Tiafo to win at least one in the Sheldon win and both players want to set at plus 130 as my dog For the show once again the lock and dog the locks and to be on Koshano Inesvera over 37.5 games minus 121 for the dog Shelton a win and both players to win a set At plus 130 you're wrapped up there for the show back once again For the women's final so we're gonna wait for the women's matches to end on Thursday Then we'll get into the women's final matches for a Saturday to keep that in mind But either way it's gonna wrap it up for the show back once again later on today After the women's matches and actually let me check the time of for those matches because we might technically do it post midnight But we'll see how long the golf and we're back on a match takes so maybe we'll do it like early Friday morning around this time slot

30:04But there will be an episode for the women's final until next time. Good luck to all of you and all of your bets bye everyone