ATP US Open Third Round Picks – 9/4/26 | Tennis Gambling Podcast (Ep. 701)

0:00The tennis gambling podcast on the sports game podcast network is brought to you by the SPN app that overpicks and podcasts for free, but the SGPN app. And welcome everyone to the tennis game podcast, show the sports game podcast. Now we're currently Friday morning, early Friday morning, around one eight Eastern time on September 4th. I'm Roscarra, I showered a breakdown, the third round of the men's US Open, turned breakdown, some not all of the matches taking place on Friday and on Saturday. Before that, though, and recap what happened in the second round. And before that, reminder to sports show like subscribe on the YouTube, of course, platform. Also like subscribe on really just any platform possible can tell the show grow and airminder to check out the podcast audio only on Spotify and Apple if you're rating in review when you do so. Plus reminder, check the merch store, lottery merchandise that we have on the S-Train merch store for tennis and for other shows as well, but for tennis, we've sweatshirts, we've t-shirts and we have mugs very quality. We also have hats now, things like the options that we

1:02have to check out the SGPN merch store. And airminder that for the NFL season starting next week, the free roll contest is back for football, take every game, ETS for a chance to win up to $4,000 and do today for free at sportscam.com slash free roll. Also check out the fundraiser that we're having right now for Columbia to help them out with the earthquake. If you want to help out the cause, go to sports him gambling a podcast to come slash relief to help out today. So moving on to the recap of the first round, we have four lock and dog picks to recap from the men's and women's episode. And unfortunately, they all sucked. We went on four. I wasn't good. Now the men's beats were pretty brutal. The women's ones were really not that close. So just a bad read on those. For the lock, we had Baylick in straight sets at minus 130. She lost outright to Bukesa. That was not on my card. Bukesa was terrible for the last couple of months. And Baylick was good and Cincinnati and immediately no show as she lost outright in three for the dog with Custard Keena. We're going to fade Bendoza

2:04without knowing your health. She'll look good and they're winning in straight sets and they're actually giving gopherum for money in the next round. But either way, it wasn't closed for the lock or the dog in the women's episode for the men's episode. Just a lot of, I'd say, pain and suffering because we had two in my opinion, good reads that went down in flames for the lock. We had Baratini and Warranka over 38 and a half games of minus 117. And while Rancor went out in a tragic fashion in his final ever match, as he had one set point in the first set, blue that had two set points in the second set, blue those. And he served for the second set and he blew that too. And then he got Baygold in the third set. So Baratini won the first set after surviving the set point that Warranka had won the breaker. Then while Rancor almost had a golden opportunity to win the second set. So we had a golden chance to basically get a one-one split with a tie break. And then while Rancor blew that and completely unraveled. So we were very close to getting almost

3:07a guaranteed winner at 38 and a half. And instead we weren't really that close in the end because while Rancor got Baygold and set three. But if he wins the second set or the first set with the set point, we were cruising and instead we lost. So that was definitely annoying bit of a bad beat there. And for the dog, the weather absolutely screwed us. We had Pissarrow money line at plus 129 against a Zhang. He was up two sets to one. The rain showed up. The match got suspended and moved to Thursday. And he got buried in the last two sets on Thursday. But he was up to one, Ged momentum. And all that went out the window as the rain calls the match to get suspended to the day after. And Pissarrow had nothing in the tank and he got destroyed. So a really bad first right episode for us. It is what it is. The women's bets were just not good. I'll admit that the Kassikina play was mostly a Bidosa fade and the Baylig play was not good either. So apologies there. For the men's losses, I really have no apologies because the weather completely screwed over Pissarrow and while

4:12Rancor choked the first and the second set away before unraveling. So it is what it is. Unfortunately own four, which is not what you want to do to start a tournament. But it is what it is. And we'll try to bounce back here in the third round. Now for the second round, apologies for not doing an episode for the second round. Full disclosure, I went to the US Open. So I was actually quite busy and that I'm not having the time to actually record it the night prior. So apologies there. Overall, it was fun. I had not gone to the US Open in a couple of years. I saw a couple of fun matches, which I'll recap right now. So I saw Maria beat Rubelev in four, which was phenomenal. I got to witness a just the first ball at Hall of Fame clown. I'll lose in four to Maria. Now I actually did like Maria in the match and a friend of mine who joined me had a pretty hefty wager on Maria to two. So we were rooting for Maria in the entire matchup. But look, I thought Maria was going to win. I know I didn't break it down in an episode, but Rubelev was pretty fortunate

5:12to get past for Tonnen in five rounds. And even that, he fought off a match point in. So Rubelev, which is a non-great form. Maria, I think, has been good for the last couple of months. And Maria got the job done upset on paper, but not really. I thought it was definitely going to be a very close matchup. And Maria got the job done as you won the last three sets. I'd say pretty easily. Did get broken to start the fourth set and then drove twice to win. But either way, Maria was a better player. Really no surprise there from Rubelev. And I got to see the clown in full action in person. Moving on to the matches that actually didn't end up seeing. I mean, Mbive, Gorsny, I didn't go to that match at all. I did not go to the Moonar match at all either. He was fortunate to even be in the second round because of the fact that Op main fellow partner had a hand cramp up to sets in a break. So Moonar was fortunate to be in the second round. And he got dominated. Bonsi, that was the first round match actually. Does Anchelpe beating Choyne T1, that was the first round match as well. It was a bit of a weird day because the weather got in the way and they had to make up some first round matches as well in addition to second round

6:17matches. It's kind of a mixed bag there. But ended up, I saw the Spasia match against Altmeyer. Unfortunately, I lost a parlay. I had Altmeyer to win and both players to win a set. And that was like 30 to one. And that was the final leg that I lost. I watched it really wasn't that close. Altmeyer though won the third set tie break. Started pouring rain. They resumed about an hour later. And Altmeyer of course served first got broken. Start the fourth set. So either way, that didn't work out. But either way, it was a fun match in Spasia. Look good. Of course, he did a lose to Gia in the second round. But that was a fun match. I saw in person and I had good seats too right after the Raindole. Besides that Shelton and they're beating her catch in four fun match. Her catch had chances, but a classic her catch loss. Good, not good enough. And Shelton survived and advanced. Now this was round one, but I have to acknowledge it. I didn't watch any of it. But what the hell was that from Hoder? See, the thing is I was sitting in the stands watching

7:20the Marita and Ruble of match. And I saw the scoreboard on court 17, like all the way in the distance. And I keep looking up at the scoreboard in the top right during changeovers. And Boo just keeps winning games. And Hoder was not moving at all. As games were like, oh, it's 2-1. Now it's 3-1. Now it's 6-1. I'm like, what is happening over on this court? But yet Hoder had an all-time embarrassing showing as Boo destroyed them in straight sets. And then of course, lost to Jang in the second round. But still, Hoder, I did not actually see in person. Thank God. He won four games the entire match. But I was keeping an eye on the scoreboard in the distance. But I did not walk over to watch that match. Moving on to the other matches, though, that I ended up seeing in the second round. I saw Citi Poss, who ended up beating Harris in four. Now I had a massive sweat in person. And I know that a couple people might have seen me sweating out that match on court 17.

8:22But I had the first set tie break alive at plus 220. No break points in the first 10 games of the match. Citi Poss blows two game points, double faults on break point. So I'm down 6-5 now. However, Harris double faults on break point. And I won. So that was nice. My tickets for the US open were free. Overall, good atmosphere, even more fun when you're actually going. And the bets take care of the payments. But yeah, I won at first set tie break with Citi Poss and Harris. Cursey of a break and break back in the 5-5 service game and the 6-5 service game, which is kind of wild. But either way, that was my experience. Citi Poss, again, got the job done. I'll put it this way. We're cool now. He's still the number one clown, but he made me money. And my tickets were free. So I can't complain too much. Fun overall for set. I actually jumped around, but either way, a nice win for him in four. Besides that, on the Vona, ended up beating Baratini in four.

9:24I caught the first set and a half of that one. Notice Baratini was winning after basically every point of the first set onward. And he fell apart. So I didn't actually see the implosion, but you can see if you're watching the match, he was winning constantly in between points. And the Vona warmed down. Like the Vona is a guy who, like we saw against Jokovic, you will keep balls in play and force you to play four plus hours. And Baratini's overall body just could not handle it. And Baratini fell apart. So there you go. I did not see Tiafowin. I know he beat Sakamoto in three. I did not see Vaturo win. I know he won in four. Boo-blook, I saw a little bit of, but that was a blood bath. He only lost five games to Manorino. That was actually the court next to the Baratini match. They moved the Boo-blook one from court seven because of Colin Skaya. And they moved it to the court next time. So I looked up in between changeovers and Boo-blook was winning every point. That's kind of what I noticed. Paul did be prismic in four. And Alcara's lost a set and then jumped to Faria as he won in four

10:29as well. So overall a very fun day of at least tennis for me. The matches itself, I'd say, weren't the most dramatic. I saw a couple of four setters. Shapo I saw who blew a five-one lead in the third setting in Von Asch. However, he held on to win the tie break, which would have been an epic clown moment that I was there for. But either way, Shapo got the job done as he won that in straight sets. But I recommend it. I think a joke of joluzing resulted in cheap particulates because it would have been joke of it's Baratini. And instead it was Naveau and I Baratini. But I got in for like 80 bucks. And I just jumped around to a bunch of matches. And I thought it was a great time. The rain was of course a bit annoying and ended up getting some beer, got some food. So overall it was nice. But if you've never been before, I recommend it. It was a good time. I will, if my friend, and we just went to different matches, live bet tennis matches, and it was a good time. So I recommend going, if you have not done so before, but that was my experience in the US Open. I'll give it a solid 8.5 out of 10. Would have been higher, but the rain delay didn't exactly help.

11:34I'm moving on to the matches that happened on Thursday. So those are the Wednesday matches. For Thursday, a Surunderlow beat Shroof in five. A Dorderry beat for Sina in four. He saw Felix Lewis, Tukashanov in four. Felix didn't look great against Jakarta in round once. And not too much of a shock. But Gashanov nice win for him. Fertz destroyed Blue. She lost two games the entire match. And ESPN insisted on showing all of it instead of going to an actual competitive match, which is another problem I have with the ESPN broadcast. A Museti fell apart. Minus 2500 favorite. How about losing in four to Swini? He was dizzy. He had some health issues and he fell apart. So nice win for Swini there to be a little bit popper in in four. Gaboli one in four again. School Kate. A block between Galidian four. Lots of four setters in the card on Thursday. Gia beat Sphagia. So that was a nice win for him. A Monphe officially did lose. He lost the TN in straight sets. At least he won around. Shout out to Vallejo for getting his ass kicked. But TN's a bad matchup. He

12:39warmed down. And he won in straight sets. And Zheng ended up beating Blue in four. And Howls of course is playing Zverev right now after Zverev barely beat Sonnego in round one. Nothing else for a recap though. I mean, I watched a decent amount of the matches on Thursday. Wednesday, you know, when you're at the event, you catch some you miss all those and you kind of piece together the highlights in between. But overall that's the second round time to move on into the third round of the USO. Before that though, air reminder or actually, no, I got at least acknowledged it. I didn't mention it before. Joke of it. Losing was an absolute heartbreaker because I was going to the event. And I wanted to see Joke of it for the tires. And instead he lost in a Vona. So that sucked four and a half hours and he fell apart. I think he lost like 12 and the last 13 games on the match. But it was kind of reminiscent of Sinner losing a Surun below in the French Open. Not to the same health extreme, but you tell Joke of which was vomiting. He didn't have it I'd say health wise. But

13:43the Vona got the job done. That was round one. But I have to at least acknowledge that he lost. So shout out to the Vona for beating Joke of it. Unfortunate for me, but I still had a good time nonetheless. Either way though, before we get into the third round of the USO. Or a month of the broadcast by response or clutch parlay's, check them out for data backed projections and check the predictions out updated live during the game. So get updated odds. Forever use pitch, basket and possession. Also use the leaderboard system if you want to compete with others. Simple to use clean dashboard and a one stop shop for for research. Plus the opportunities and airminder get a free month with the coach fan at signup clutch parlay's calm promo code SGPN. We're also brought to my fantasy. You want to be a million of the football season, download on a dog and jump into keep your million. It's our the million dollars and hedge your bets across 20 player projection questions by splitting your cash on higher or lower. Keep whatever lands on the winning side. If you hit zero, you're out, they get through all 20 rounds and you walk away with whatever's left in bonus funds. Once again, new customers in select states

14:44can get up to half. They get a 5% deposit match up to $1,000. Check out on the fantasy promo code SGPN. The NFL is right around the corner in the sports gambling podcast is back with their 32 NFL team previews and of course your chance to win a $1,000 NFL future with Welcome back everyone to the tennis game podcast finished going through the recap of the second round and my trip to the US open time to move on into the third round preview. So moving on to the actual matches first match on the card we have mevadev taking on Rinder Kinesh. So he's about minus 267. Rinder Kinesh is around plus 237. The overrunner is at about 38 games for spread minus 4.5 for mevadev plus 4.5 for Rinder Kinesh for the sets for red though. Mevadev minus 1.5 sets is minus 136. Rinder Kinesh plus 1.5 sets is a plus 121.

15:48They've played a couple of times before. They've tied. They've split the two meetings. Rinder Kinesh did win the meeting last year in Shanghai which does play pretty fast and we saw the US open meeting a couple of years ago which mevadev did win in straight sets. Now Rinder Kinesh has been good. Beach in Bacoro in four and beat Munar in straight sets. Then again, Shima Bacoro and Munar you got to be joking. Like that's an absolute joke of a path into the third round. For mevadev like Gorsany was a gift because Cohen yo completely unraveled into that fourth set sorry the fifth set and he blew a massive lead in the fifth set tie break but either way a point is mevadev beat Gorsany a gift of a win and Gaston in straight sets. Now we know mevadev was in really bad form. He lost a damn in straight sets right before the event of Winston Salem. He found some random routine with chewing gum and it's actually worked out for him so maybe he found something. Now I find that interesting though that Rinder Kinesh did end up beating

16:50a mevadev because it's a bad match up for him. Then again that was the crazy event where Rinder Kinesh ended up facing his cousin Vacharo in the final and he lost. So maybe just weird things happen in Shanghai but mevadev has a bad match up in general for Rinder Kinesh who mainly is I can't say a serve bot but if the first serve is not following he has real problems. He's not a great volunteer. He's not an amazing ralier. Mevadev though does look good overall. So for me I'm going Mevadev minus 1.5 sets here. I think he just looks good. I mean Gorsany almost found a way to make the third set interesting but Mevadev I think is the more well-rounded player and if the first serve is not following for Rinder Kinesh the second serve is just going to give him problems. So I'm going with Mevadev here minus 1.5 sets minus 1.36. Yes I know it's tied 1.1 the head to head with Rinder Kinesh winning the most recent meeting but I see a bad match up and I like I'm Mevadev's play. I'll go Mevadev minus 1.5 sets here at minus 1.36. Moving on to the next match up we're going to look at Yibing taking on Alcaraz. So Alcaraz massive favored minus 1,600 Yibings around

17:58plus 10.50. Four of these sets spread. Alcaraz 3.0 is minus 1.19 Yibing to when A set is plus 10.6. The over a 3.0 sets is plus 1.14. Under's minus 1.28. For the spread minus 7.5. Alcaraz plus 7.5. Yibing and the over under is at about 32.5. So for the path so far Yibing has been really really good. Yibing we know as a talent employer the issue is never healthy. Be Walton in straight sets and be duck worth in straight sets. Two Aussies really that's a easy competition. But you know what Walton has some firepower and he's a pretty decent hardcore player and duck worth did beat Arnoldi in four. He was in decent form and wins Salem as well but that was a bloodbath. Alcaraz though beats a fool in straight sets. Wolf first set the faria and then ended up burying him in the last three sets. So look I think Yibing is a talent employer. I like him. They played one time in Shanghai two years ago Alcaraz beat him to

18:58nothing. There was a tiebreaker in there but Alcaraz never faced a break point in the entire match. So look Alcaraz was bad to start against faria. Faria also can serve it at like 140 so that's kind of tough to deal with initially. But I think Alcaraz rolls the fact is Alcaraz at some point after the first set. Flip the switch and just decided to take the racket out of Faria's hands and to just absolutely beat him over the head with it. And I think you're going to see a pretty similar performance from Alcaraz here. The fact is he looked good against a fool and not amazing but first match in a couple of months. He passed the test in straight sets. Faria want to set. We know he's been in good form recently and Alcaraz eventually bagled them in the second set. So I think Alcaraz if he's on should win three nothing. Yibing has played well. I'm not going to ignore that but I do think Alcaraz in general. If he plays the way that he did in the last three sets against Faria, he should win comfortably. I'll go Alcaraz three nothing as my thoughts for this one. I think he

20:01ends up winning in pretty convincing fashion. Maybe a tiebreaker or six four in there but Alcaraz at the end of the day is just the much better player and he looked like it against Faria in the last round. I think go win three nothing as my thoughts for that one. Moving on to the next matchup you have Michelson taking on Marita. Now Michelson's minus 156. Marita's plus 141. The overrunner is at 38.5 games for the spread minus two and half for Michelson plus two and half for Marita. The set spread though is plus one half for Marita minus 143. The minus one half sets is plus 127 for Michelson and the over three and half sets is minus 210. Rematch that we ended up seeing in Cincinnati and we saw a pretty lopsided match in favor of Marita. They played earlier this year in Indian Wells and Michelson dominated one in straight sets. Fisive Montreal not since in Annie so it wasn't Montreal and Marita one in three. However very misleading he served for the match in the second set. He blew it one in three six one but he easily could have won like six four six four. The match was pretty

21:04lopsided and Michelson stole a set but Marita looks really good. So far in the event beat Rublev in four I was there. I mean he looked really really good and for Xuelvix he destroyed which was a buy because of Xuelvix just dropped that Winston-Sanghal so he was not in good form health wise but a nice easy win for Marita also in general a solid summer on hardcore for Marita. For Michelson though he beat Cena in straight sets means nothing to me and then he destroyed Nakashima and Nakashima was in great form made the final in Montreal and we saw him make a deep run in the event afterwards so overall he was in great form and Michelson destroyed him like it wasn't even close in fact every single set was a six four or six three so it was definitely a very ugly match for Nakashima then again we also knockashima doesn't like to rally he's gone better at it but it's definitely as a killy seal so I can see Marita giving Michelson a problem in this one we just saw him give

22:06him a problem in Montreal about a month ago now I tweeted this out as the odds dropped so spoiler if you already read my tweet I could not believe Michelson opened up at minus 220 I could not even fathom that price I didn't get it it was a complete overreaction about beating Nakashima but Marita is a very very good player I think he might be future top 10 I think his upside is clearly higher than Michelson's and I think that he's definitely a guy who should be in the top 15 within the next year or two he won a clay title in Uemag Michelson's never won a title before so I do think Marita is the better player I could not believe Michelson was minus 220 and I could not believe Marito is plus 175 now the mark erected accordingly because we ended up seeing Marita move down to 141 and full disclosure knock on wood I have a long shot parlay at around 21 to 1 and the final leg

23:08is Marita money line so I'm already priced in on Marita like I am already invested in Marita hopefully gets the job done 21 to 1 hopefully closes me out but I do think that at the end of the day the better player is the dog here yes Michelson was really really good as Nakashima do I think he should be lying 170 no I don't I are 156 I see 170 in a couple of spots I think that Marita is the more talented player and we saw in the meeting in Montreal Michelson's second serve was absolute fish food for Marita Michelson only one 34% of a second serve points in that match and by comparison Marita faced six break points Michelson faced 12 so I think Marita can actually give Michelson serious problems here I like the dog I think 140 still a good price I would argue after watching

24:09that match in Montreal that it should be like a minus 110 a piece like I don't see much separate in these guys and I think that Marita is arguably the better player so I'm going with Marita money at plus 141 as my thoughts on this one moving on to the next match up you have a battle of Argentinian clay experts you have that chavari taking on Navone Navone is minus 111 at chavari's plus 101 and the over under is at about 39 for the spread minus half a game for Navone plus half a game for at chavari now at chavari looked good against firmly now firmly is not exactly an amazing player mainly a challenger guy but still you know what a win's a win and he did win in four now Navone beat jokobitch and baritini so a nice run by him had a pretty decent hard court season so far so good for him there now for the head Ted they have played two times on clay they are dated though they've not played in basically four years and at chavari won all four sets now look this is a pure coin flip for me I get the argument for Navone because in Navone is beaten two good hard

25:12court players both guys though it's an injury issues I mean jokobitch completely ran into gas and was puking clearly didn't have it and I watched the match with baritini and baritini was wincing we know is always injured not a shock there for baritini so look at chavari has a very good forehand his serve is better than Navone's but I do see a long match breaking out and I do think with both guys being so sharp on clay the fact that at chavari's two and all against him tells me that chavari does have a bit more firepower and I think will be able to win but Navone being a favorite on hard court I just can't do even if you like Navone he's an in a doll expot against baritini he beat baritini a couple of weeks prior so I'm not shocked that Navone won that one the joker is a complete shocker but still minus one eleven like I can't lay that there's no chance I bet this match full disclosure but I'll take the plus money on at chavari like I think it's a coin flip getting plus money I guess but no interest at all in whatever this

26:16clay matchup is in a us open third round I'll go at chavari a plus money as my thoughts for that one I'm moving on to the next matchup going to jump around a little bit a youve la eshka taking on sissy pos so for this one la eshka is minus 175 sissy pos plus 158 over under is at 40 a four the spread minus three for leshka plus three for sissy pos for the sets spread though leshka minus one and a half sets minus one as a plus one or nine actually sissy pos plus one and a half sets is minus one twenty two they played before and leshka has been pretty good against sissy pos they played in Antwerp uh two years ago and we saw leshka win two nothing in the wells two years ago leshka won two nothing all the open three years ago sissy pos one three nothing roderdam four years ago sissy pos did win in three so look leshka has been good so far in the event he destroyed Samuel and he beat booster in four so he's been in good form so far in the event sissy pos has been good beat fees and a shocking upset there

27:17he was down a set thought he'd roll over and he did not and then he beat Harrison four now the common theme though is that sissy pos has lost the first set in both matches so far in this one so i don't mind leshka to win the first set in the match actually i like the over in this one i think both guys can serve well leshka is a very underrated server but no sissy pos is not generally a good returner and i think we're going to see a bit of a marathon here i mean look you're looking at both guys who've served well sissy pos is winning roughly 80% first serve leshka is around 77% i see a close match up here i think leshka wins and both players win a set so that would be my angle for this one but i like the over i see a close match up then we get a breaker in there followed by four or five sets it wouldn't shock me if we saw stefanos actually win this match but i'll go leshka i just trust them a bit more but for the actual pricing if you want to reduce the money line juice at like minus 190 you can get leshka to win and both

28:20players to win a set and that is available uh sorry trying to find that right now that's available at plus one fifty four good enough for me i'll grab that i'm moving on to the next match do you want to jump days here uh i'll actually do a couple we're missing some lines on the Saturday so i'll probably do like a scarce amount of those but we'll do a decent amount for the Friday card and call it even moving on to vaturo taking on tiapho for the pricing on this one so look tiapho's a favorite not a surprise i mean tiapho had a great performance against sockimoto and straight sets for this one though is minus 191 vaturo plus 172 for the over under i see 39.5 or 40 game spread minus three for tiapho plus three for vaturo sets for edu minus one nafratiapho plus money plus one nafr vaturo at minus 120 vaturo's been good i mean he was written really bad for him for the last couple of months showed up here beat kota savage and beat my chick in for there a tiapho though beat damn in five and beat sockimoto in three

29:27so for this one i like the over i'm not gonna really think too much about it i think tiapho wins but i do think vaturo if damn could take two sets off tiapho why can't vaturo similar stylistically i think you're gonna see a lot of solid serving from both guys but vaturo i think can do some damage here all go tiapho in four but i do think we'll get a bit of a lengthy match here with tie breaks involved so i'm gonna go for the over 39.5 is my thoughts for this one and that's available at about minus 121 moving on to shelt and taking on shapo shelt and minus 350 give or take shapo's around plus 311 for the over under i do see 39 sets spread shelt and minus one naf sets as a minus 163 shapo plus one nafsets is plus 144 the over three and that sets minus 174 for the games spread minus four and a half for shelt and plus four and a half for shapo juice though minus 136 for these shelt inside so for the edt history they have played before they played in Dallas this year when three sets in

30:30Shanghai two years ago shelt and one two nothing and the win bulletin two years ago shelt and did win in three now shapo has had a pretty interesting path so far be kickman of it's in four and beat vanosh in straight sets now shelt and beat her catch in four and greets four in four so shelt and has been vulnerable against good servers and we know that shapo's lefty serve can be very trick-and-a-deal with so for me my thoughts are simple i think shelt and wins however i will give shapo one set i'll be generous i mean he dropped a set to greets four for christ sake like i think you're looking at a spot where shelt and should win but i think shapo can do enough to force a breaker maybe steal one and i think you're looking at a spot where shapo can definitely keep this match competitive he has done so historically speaking so for me my thoughts are pretty simple i'll go with shelt and the win and both players to win a set but you can find at plus one thirty six if you want the exact outcome there set betting shelt and in four is plus

31:32two fifty which i like i think i won in four in this one i'm moving on to the matches on Saturday we do have some limited lines so apologies there so looking at the first matchup we have tn taking on men'sick tn minus one seventy six you men'sick at plus one thirty eight for the spread i see tn is available at about oh minus four and a half at plus one twenty you find three and a half at around minus one ten and men'sick plus three and a half is minus one thirty the over under is at about i see give or take thirty five and a half thirty six and a half if you want actually no for the actual juice being i'd say non-existent you can get third nine and a half at minus one ten on the over they played before it was in a next gen match so it was first the four in each set but tn did win in five and that was a marathon so there we go now tn's been good killed among fee and straight sets and beat borgis and straight sets men'sick beat a rodeo in oven four and beat most shazuki in straight sets for this one look i think tn's gonna win

32:36i think tn's more reliable than men'sick i do not have a price on it but i like tn to win and both players to win a set men'sick despite beat erroneona of whose mainly a challenger is really not that great against lefties so i see you've been match up for tn i think a wayer down men'sick i'll go tn in i'll go four as my thoughts in this one i'm moving on to the next match up i'll probably do like one more because i'm missing a lot of lines for this day so i'm going to go a fritz taking on sorundalo in this one fritz massive favorite minus five seventy five sorundalo is plus three ninety one for the pricing here though for the spread you're minus five and a half for fritz plus five and a fritz sorundalo and it's the same price on both sides over under i see it available at about thirty and a half thirty nine and a half so shop around there fritz though we saw only lose two games to bulugie into the last round he killed him but that was a blood bath and we ended up seeing a beat blanche in straight sets as for sorundalo you want you beat missaluch

33:38in straight sets and beat shrewf in five shrewf had an injury time out in there a bit fortunate that he got injured because sorundalo did end up winning the last two sets handily so he was in trouble uh they combined for twenty nine double faults in that five set match but he was fortunate that shrewf's body fell apart again and ended up winning so look if fritz plays as well as he did in the match against bulugie go in comfortably like fritz played out of his mind in that match they've two current meetings both on clay fritz won in Madrid two years ago in three and sorundalo beat him in the French open three years ago in four so they've never played on hard court before look fritz is better i get that sorundalo when he's on has a forehand that can take over a match but i don't trust him at all thirteen double faults is not great and he was fortunate that shrewf fell apart physically because he was down to one so i don't mind fritz three nothing actually at plus one fifty i think he wins pretty comfortably i think sorundalo is a guy who stills not a great

34:40server he did win a grass title since then he's been horrible so i'll go fritz three nothing at plus one fifty as my thoughts for this one i can wrap it up though for the match that i'm going to break down for the third round apologies but i'm missing a lot of lines of four of the saturday matches i'm going to avoid those and move on into the lock and dog picks for you into the lock and dog around the brought to by a sponsor so check out calcci fun fact by the way when i was at the us open pretty much every match i went to there was a calcci sponsor next to the court so yeah right on cue there they are all over the us open but a reminder you can trade spreads money ones totals in futures much more on calcci including the us open stuff if you want to also calcci's great prices for college and pro football and trade twenty five bucks to twenty five over on calcci use promo code spn she got calcci promo code sgpn we're also for the by circle they're giving away at least thirty million dollars in prizes for these are hank for this year's hank happy contest check it out in Nevada play from anywhere for going to play outside in Nevada though you'll need

35:42a proxy so you're going to football contest like com is code ispn for the record i did sign up for the millions contest and i am using football contas calm so i'm using it so you should too but check out the code ispn for get fifty bucks off your proxies check out football contas the commis promo code sgpn welcome back everyone to the tennis game podcast finish going through the program preview of the us open time to move on into the lock and dog picks for the lock and dog of course i skipped over a couple of matches that i was going to save for later a very good match on friday it's booblick and Paul a rematch a last year booblick one and five and you know what Paul's favored i'm going booblick plus one and a half sets at minus one thirty as my lock for the show booblick one last year in once again five sets i like how he played overall i think in general booblick i know he was in better form last year than he was this year but he's looked great so far in the event yes he ended up dropping a set to wolf he was up to nothing already he lost five games to manorino

36:47the match as a whole took about an hour and twenty like it was ugly and it was over early and Paul by comparison habit of a war he lost the first set to wong in the first round and he lost at the prismich in the second round even the fourth set was close in that one that was a seven five in the fourth set so Paul in general had an absolute war and that took three plus hours so i i do think that booblick in general had a very easy buy basically in the last round Paul though entering the event wasn't in great form sorry it was seven five prismich in the third six four Paul in the fourth but either way though like Paul only one forty four percent of a second serve points in that match and i think booblick in general with the way that he's playing i think he definitely can win this outright i mean looking at the numbers here he's done significantly more damage with his first serve by comparison to Paul so booblick's landing roughly five percent more first serve points while winning roughly five percent more first

37:50serve points so i think booblick's first serve might determine the entire match they played last year and Paul did win both tie breaks so booblick sets that he won were pretty lopsided and he's served out of his mind in that match i don't think he got broken in that entire match so i think booblick in general proved last year he can be Paul in these courts and i like i always play it by comparison of Paul i'll go booblick plus one half sets and minus one thirty as my lock for the show further dog i'm gonna go to the caboli match yes i do like marita but not gonna wood i have an apparlay already i'm not gonna try to you know add to it why not i like marita too i'll be a bit different though i'll go for caboli to beat blocks and both players to win a set at plus one twenty eight uh i do want to point out though this was not available on fandall yet so i'd to build it myself courtesy of an sgp build but it should be a better price once fandall posts it but i'll do it now so caboli we know it's top ten in the world he's lost a set in each of the first

38:51two rounds minimum law set the school k and two sets to comasagna however not a surprise because caboli even though it's number six in the world never wins in straight sets caboli's lost at least one set in seventeen of his last eighteen matches that's not a typo i counted it multiple times he's lost at least one set in seventeen of his last eighteen matches the guy never wins in straight sets now they played it since an anti couple weeks ago blocks choked badly but caboli did end up winning in three and the fact is caboli in general is the of course better player based on the actual i'd say ranking and based on the skill i mean caboli made a final in the french open we saw him of course make a deep run in multiple atv events before he's won a couple eight to be titles and the fact is i do think the fact that he's beaten him in a war tells me that he's not going to be intimidated by blocks as the event as the match goes on it's a very cheap money line so i get

39:56people are going to jump on blocks here is a bit it's a bit trappy but caboli also has been very good late in these long matches it's why he usually puns the first set he's won three the last four fifth sets that he's been in including the first round against comasagna which he won the one lost though was against verive in the french open final so no shame in that but caboli's been good in the fifth set recently blocks though has never even played it in a fifth set before so i can see a marathon where maybe it goes five but caboli's been there done that before blocks has had moments of choking before in the past and then we saw him against vanoche where he totally fell apart in that match in a storm in the third set so i've seen blocks implode before i mean so far in the event both guys have faced pretty weak competition like trungoliti's not exactly great and that that went to four sets i understand both guys can be volatile i trust caboli more if it's going to be a marathon but the fact that caboli is minus 120 to win to win and he drops a set minimum

41:01in every match he plays give me an extra 48 cents by throwing in blocks to just win a set i think it's a good price i'll go for this my dog for this one so once again my lock and dog for the episode locks in a b on bublic plus one net sets against paul at minus 130 for the dog and it caboli to win and blocks to win a set so both players want to set and caboli to win at plus 128 as my dog for the show get a wrap it up though back once again for the fourth round of the for of the us open till next time sport the show like subscribe on youtube to leave your rating interview on spotify raffle also find me on twitter right show radio till next time good old tall of you and all of your bets bye everyone