Brent Crude Hits $100/Barrel Again 3/12/26

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Stocks are falling as oil continues to rise.

Iran's new ruler making more threats about shipping and the price of energy.

Walk into power lunch, everybody. We are lower across the board today.

The major average is all down over 1 percent.

Banks and financials, they continue to see selling.

All his crude continues to climb briefly, hitting a hundred bucks a barrel again.

The U.S. Secretary Chris Wright telling us this morning not to expect the U.S. Navy to escort ships through the

straight-of-form moves before the end of the month.

One of the best minds in oil and geopolitics, Bob McNally, on set to break it all down.

Plus, two of the biggest names in investing are joining forces, throwing their money and might

behind some of the hottest tech investments available right now.

We're talking about ARC Invest and CEO and CIO Kathy Wood and Fund Strat Head of Research, Tom Lee.

They'll join us ahead to discuss these moves.

They're betting on here. Stay with us for that. We're looking forward to it.

All right, so we've got a lot more to do this hour.

But let's begin again with the big story right now.

The war, oil, energy, and more.

The price of oil continues to climb at 94 bucks.

This, even as the world, including America,

set to release 400 million barrels of oil onto the market.

The problem is that somebody forgot to tell Iran that the war was winding down.

Either it or its proxy warlords keep hitting ships in the Persian Gulf region.

In fact, that's a video from last night to tankers burning one of those ships owned by a company

based right here in New Jersey.

And despite some talk about the US Navy protecting ships in the region, it is not happening.

At least not yet.

Here's what energy secretary Chris Wright said about that earlier today on CNBC.

It'll happen relatively soon, but it can't happen now.

We're simply not ready. All of our military assets right now are focused on destroying Iran's offensive capabilities

and the manufacturing industry that supplies their offensive capabilities.

Oil does have less of an impact on the American economy that it has in decades past.

It still matters a lot.

Not just for gasoline prices, but input costs of many other items

in the shipping slowdown, hitting not just oil, but everything from natural gas, the fertilizer,

and even the gas says that going to making things like semiconductors.

So we might this war end and things return to some kind of normal, whatever that means.

It's with flows and shipping, rapid end energy group founder and president Bob McNally,

a rare interview on set Bob, we're glad you're here.

Thank you very much.

Thank you very much.

You've been writing and you've been correct that this war may go on longer than we think.

I mean, we're seeing ships hit with projectiles last night.

What is your latest insight into when this may end?

Brian, I'm prefacing everything with, I wish I was wrong. I hope I'm wrong.

But when my team and I sat down last June to model this exact scenario with the military officer helping us,

the maximum, most pessimistic disruption duration of hormones we could get to was 30 days.

And if the secretary of energy you just quoted and showed is correct,

we'll be into our worst case, 30 days without a full flow of hormones.

That is about the worst thing you can imagine in global oil and energy markets.

I challenge you, I don't think before 12 days ago, anyone even contemplated.

It's something like a load bearing assumption in global economics.

It's sort of like the U.S. will never depeg from gold or the Fed or never let a bank fall.

Or the Treasury will never do value.

It's something that can't happen and it's happening.

From an energy perspective, and this is going to give a little East Coast home,

or maybe I should do a West Coast thing as well, but it's kind of like interstate 95 being shut down.

I was like, well, they're not going to shut down 95.

I mean, it's the busiest roadway in the United States.

And then they do shut it down.

And then it goes on for another week and another week and another week.

And suddenly people can't move.

Is that kind of a bad way?

I know you're a DC guy, so I tried to use that analogy.

In a bad way, is that what's happening with not just oil, but the other commodities we talked about?

I'd say it's even worse.

With I-95, we have other routes, I-66 and other highways, I-88, to move things around.

This is the only artery from the heart of the world's commodity center to the world markets.

So there are no real workarounds, a little bit on the crude side, Brian.

You know, there's 15 million barrels a day of crude.

Maybe we're able to get 11 out now.

But those 5 million barrels a day of products, stuck.

20% of LNG, stuck.

Yeah.

So we were speaking with Marco Pepech last hour who said maybe 120 or 130 dollar crude is going to be necessary

to kind of force both sides to come to, or certainly, I don't know, maybe our side to come to some resolution here.

Just how would you be thinking about this in terms of the oil price, the pressure that's on Iran, how long they may be able to sustain the kind of bombing that we're now talking about?

Right.

So as traders and investors start grappling with this simple but stark math, they will think that oil prices must go to levels that induce a recession.

Because ports for oil will enforce the iron law of economics.

You can't consume what you can't produce.

World can't grow without 20% of its energy.

That level is well above old highs at 147 and above.

However, the fellow he has cited is probably right.

Sometime between now and then, there's going to be true panic and a desire to get to an off-rank.

The question is, it takes two to cease fire, us and the Iranians.

And the Iranians are enjoying this moment.

This is their strategy all along.

Play the oil card back Trump off by inflicting the one thing they can do to him.

Because they don't have any military anymore that he knows he fears.

So the question is, is it 120, 130, 140, but sometime between here and 150, 160, that moment may arrive.

As you heard and Brian mentioned this morning, the Secretary of Energy said we're not quite ready in terms of maybe our military escort.

But yesterday, we had marshes, one of their key officials on to talk about this from the insurance piece of things.

And he said what they need, and we heard this repeated last hour, is a multinational flotilla.

Apparently, we had this in the 80s, the Soviets were helping.

We've done it before. They were waste kind of trying to clear those minds.

Would that be the kind of thing you look at and say, this is now a sign that this conflict, this war, is starting to near an end?

Yes, it would, but that won't happen until a prerequisite is met.

Before insurance starts, before even we risk navy ships there, we've got to degrade those thousands of moles that we need to whack.

The anti-ship cruise missile launchers, the boats, the mines, the torpedoes, the unmanned cruise ships that lit up that nap at the carrier last night.

We've got to degrade that before we can even get those forces in place and defend that I-95 corridor.

We can do that, right? And I think the frustration that many of our viewers and listeners have, because Kelly and I hear about them from them, we love them all, on X and other platforms,

is that why are Iranian ships just kind of coming and going to and from, they're selling all this oil to China?

And the answer is probably that we don't want oil to go to $175 a barrel, but is there a scenario where something like that would need to happen?

To shut down Iran, because they need the money more than China needs the oil.

Yeah, there is a scenario, but then we go to a very dark place, Brian, because that's why I was saying it carefully and so far, both sides have shown restraint.

They're only attacking each other's energy infrastructures that matter domestically for those countries, refineries, storage.

So far, they haven't crossed the Rubicon into attacking Carg Island Export Terminal, or the Abkake Stabilization Plant, where Rastunura Terminal, they attach their refineries.

So far, we're not going there. If we go there, then even opening up Hormuz at some point won't really alleviate the energy shortage and we're in a much worse world.

A couple of questions about the SPR release.

I was reading that, apparently, if we try to allow release from our reserves too quickly, we can actually damage them.

And there was some damage done during the Biden release, which apparently was also pretty swift.

And those facilities are, to some extent, degraded.

Can you just talk a little bit about what's available here in the US?

How quickly that oil might get flowing, and whether there are going to be some side effects?

Well, here's one area I can be somewhat optimistic.

In terms of the ability of the strategic choimers of our office at DOE to flow that oil, I think they can do it.

The caverns are in good shape.

Yes, there's been some repairs. There's always rumors that they can't do...

Now, they can't do the 4.4 million barrels a day they have on the website.

No one thinks they can do that.

But can they flow a million barrels a day?

I know the guys who have that job, they take it very seriously.

I think we'll be able to put, and we will see one and a half million barrels a day flowing out.

The problem is a math problem.

We've lost 15 million barrels a day of oil. That's 20 minus 5 or redirects.

They'll only be able to flow with everybody else, too, at max.

So those numbers...

Again, I'm trying to be a little bit optimistic.

We don't want to be doom and gloom here, but it's a scary situation.

Chips are literally burning and people are dying.

That's that on the US side.

We're at 13.5 million barrels a day production.

We get about 5 million from our friends up north in Canada.

We get some from Mexico as well.

We use about 20 million.

If any of these numbers are wrong, just tell me I'm wrong.

You're doing really good.

Well, math.

Thank you Virginia Tech's engineering education,

which I did not take, but I...

We were adjacent to it.

I was adjacent. I was engineering adjacent.

Is there a scenario?

And I know oil is global, and there's a lot of different types of oil, thick and whatever, light sweet.

Scenario where the price of oil goes to 150, but somehow in the United States,

we can stay at a different price for gasoline and other input products

because we are somewhat isolated, physically and logistically, or is that impossible?

No chance.

What's oil?

Zero.

No chance.

What's my math again?

It works with natural gas, Brian.

We're still at $3, Henry Hub.

The rest of the world is seeing 50, 70% increases.

Gas is expensive to move around the world.

It's not globally traded and priced and fungible in the way that oil is.

No, there's no way we can avoid seeing higher prices here if crude goes to 150.

On the oil price, too, when we peaked at 119 over the weekend,

it was interesting to watch out WTI and Brent were basically effectively the same.

There's $0.20 spread and we were told that's because people were scrambling for physical delivery.

So they would take WTI if Brent wasn't available.

Right.

And I wonder if we could get into that situation again.

Well, that's absolutely right.

And there are rumors out there and I hope to God they're not true.

I know friends in the White House, you know, part of good energy policy is stopping bad energy policy.

And as people get panicky here, some are going to say, let's do what the Chinese are doing.

Let's stop exporting product.

Right.

Let's keep it here.

It would be a disaster.

It wouldn't lower pump prices.

President, the president may pitch that.

I reported that earlier today and I reported the industry doesn't want that.

Why wouldn't work?

It wouldn't work.

We just have higher gasoline prices eventually.

It wouldn't work.

We can't.

The pump prices we pay are determined globally.

We import gasoline in the East Coast.

All we would do is make it unattracted to invest in America.

We would demolish our reputation as energy dominance and an energy secure place to invest.

It would be a very bone-headed thing to do.

If they say we're going to crack down on exports that our gasoline prices could still go up.

Absolutely.

You may see refiners reduce runs.

You will see producers, if we do it on crude, reduce production.

You may get a week or two of lower pump prices in Texas for a week or two.

But then in a month or two and thereafter will be worse off.

Yeah.

And as he just said, we, and I want our listeners, we'll let you go.

Viewers, listeners understand this.

We import gasoline in the United States apart because the Jones Act is some shipping laws that maybe they get tweaked.

And then California, the two biggest refineries in the state of where two of the biggest are either shut down or shutting down this year.

So to all my friends in my former place of birth, beloved home state of California.

And is that you're in big trouble?

That's because the energy transition or that's because they were outdated or we don't, do you know why, Bob?

We ask in here.

Look, in California, we have a case of what the energy industry calls above ground whisk.

They were made to feel unwelcome and they left.

And now California needs these supplies and it's importing them from the Caribbean, at higher cost, etc.

Folly.

California is literally importing oil from the Caribbean because it's green.

I don't know anything.

Where do the Jones Act, if we tweak as Brian hinted at, what would that do with that make a significant?

I'm going to go down the list with you, Bob.

I don't know you have to go.

There's a toolkit.

I don't know.

It does have a flight.

I miss the flight.

So I heard today they're announcing it looks like there'll be a 30-day lifting of the Jones Act.

Great idea.

It'll be cheaper.

Now you can't import gasoline from the Gulf Coast because you can't find a foreign ship.

Now you can.

It's a smart idea.

The president's right to do it.

Will it stop the upward march to 150 if we don't open Hormuz?

No.

Is it a good idea that'll make it a little cheaper for the coasts to get gasoline?

Yes.

In other words, we need the multinational flotillas, but first we need to make sure that the drones and the attacking, that that can...

We need to do, we should have done on day one.

The top priority should have been degrading the boats, the mines, the missiles, secure the straight at the very beginning

to avoid an oil price increase that may undermine political support for the laudable Gulf.

And I'm sure in the 1920s when they signed the Jones Act 1920s to protect the US maritime industry and jobs,

it seemed now, it just seems like the prohibition of shipping and maybe that's...

It's time has come.

Get your flight before the prices go up because jet fuel prices are going to show up.

Or do you have a five hour wait at TSA?

I hope not.

That's a fun of go, so you don't find out.

All right, thank you very much.

Bob McNally, rapid energy and drummer of the band Sound Policy, the only bipartisan energy related rock band.

It's true.

In America.

I could do vocals if you're ever in.

Just say.

All right, so the oil and energy are getting much of the market focus as they should.

Do not, my friends, lose sight of what is happening with banks and financials.

That group is down again right now.

It's six down day in a row.

Financials, down 11% on the year.

Block, Aries, KKR.

You know, blew out.

We've talked about that and others.

Some of the worst performers in the sector, the move has to do with a lot of things.

But they're worried about the bond markets, the credit markets, and the serious deterioration in parts

of what they call the private loan or private credit markets.

Again, not just oil and energy.

Watch the banks.

Watch the financials.

Absolutely.

And the Dow is down about 572 right now.

How do you decide when to deploy capital in a market like this?

And what areas do you go into?

We'll get a strategist insight right after the break.

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Welcome back.

The market is certainly under pressure this afternoon as oil prices are spiking, and we have the same for bond yields.

Brent traded above $100 a barrel a few hours ago.

With today's moves, the major averages are all lower for the month, the Dow, and the small cap Russell 2000s are down 4% since the beginning of March.

So when should investors start putting more capital into the stock market?

Let's ask Ryan Dietrich.

He's the chief market strategist at Carson Group, and Ryan, the correct answer is always.

Just daily, what is it called daily cost average? No, what do you really think? Welcome.

Well, thank you, Keller. There's a great conversation.

By the way, before I joined, I enjoyed that.

What do we know? I mean, what do we know? Right? The Dow is up 10 months in a row.

One of the longest win streaks ever. The S&P just was up 9 in a row on a total return basis down barely last month.

We've been saying for a minute here, this is the banana peel period of the year.

From the middle of February to the middle of March, the last 20 years has been trouble.

Now, no, we were not expecting all of this to take place.

But the markets do what it's doing. And one kind of fun stat.

The last 20 years, the S&P 100 bottoms on March 12th.

Today is March 12th. So listen, you don't blindly do seasonals.

But I think what's fascinating about this is, you know, if you have a diversified portfolio and you have some exposure around the globe,

you're still like up on the year.

All right. I mean, I'm not saying you're up a lot. But after the rally we've had this consolidation, I think it's pretty healthy.

And we, I mean, you guys just talked about financials before I came on.

I mean, that's a clear concern. What's the weakness from financials? I'm not saying it's 2007, but 2007 financials obviously were a week ahead of time.

But the reality, one final comment here, the credit spreads, right? I mean, credit markets, there's concerned clearly.

But I was shocked when I looked into this. Triple B spreads are tighter now than they were at the end of February.

So in other words, credit market is showing almost less fear than they were.

You know, with all this crazy stuff happened this month. So I think I think there's still a lot more positive negatives out there, even with all this volatility.

Yeah. I mean, and we all remember during the financial cry. I think it was at March 9th, we were just talking about the Haynes bottom.

You know, so you're right. We do often kind of get these turnaround moments.

But how would you then be gaming this out if you were in the more short-term business? Is it, you know, oil price go down, stocks go back up?

Yeah, it very well could be that simple. We clearly need some resolution out of the Middle East.

Now, what's fascinating about it when you look at market sentiment, like I'm a little geeky here, feeling something called a put to call skew, right?

How much people are willing to pay for puts relative to calls? Well, we are seeing extreme amounts of people willing to pay almost anything for puts, like off of the charts.

What's that tell us? Well, everyone wants protection hedge funds are about as short as they've been individual stocks and ETFs they've been.

I mean, literally since like almost in history, we're seeing this. So there's a lot of reasons Kelly with some any good news at all.

And I know there's not much out there. I get it. But any good news here, and it's going to come from Middle East, you're going to need a lower oil.

We could have similar to last year history and repeat itself often rhymes.

Where once you got out of all the trouble with tariffs, the market rallied back. And I really think that's the case.

So we just had another solid earning season, right? We still have the fiscal stimulus, monetary stimulus, all this stuff, most of the guests been pointing out.

I understand that. But the truth again, is this bull market? Wheeling's over. It's just taking a break. But usually bull markets once they get to this point, they don't just end.

And we still think this one has a few tricks up his sleeves here. Really amazing stat. I've lifted more your data. I'm like the kid, you know, at the full size candy bar on Halloween.

I'm going to take more than once. I've used your data. I love it. March 12th, historically the bottom. So I'm not questioning the data. It's amazing.

But the only thing I would add, maybe throw a little steam into that, whatever, is we haven't had a war in any of those years, right?

We haven't had oil at risk of 100 or 125 or 150 bucks a barrel.

So we love the history. March 12th, historically, is the bottom. Today is March 12th. But tomorrow, that means tomorrow's Friday the 13th.

Yeah, I shouldn't have mentioned that. But how much does to Kelly's question the energy costs and sort of the war alter any of your thinking?

Well, they clearly can solely and again, I have me early St. Patrick's Day, so I know it's a big day for you next week, there too.

But you think about it. There's a lot of ways to look at this. I think one of the things interesting for a lot of people, bonds haven't given much protection, right?

During all this trouble, because we know yields are going higher, right? I mean, at Carson Group, we've said for a while, we think we're in a high inflation or multiple, a volatile inflation period.

But we've had some things. If you drop it, it hits your foot and it hurts in our portfolios. We've had an underweight the bonds for a while. We have some managed futures.

So I think it's like, you know, right, listen to the shows and are you all in or you're all out? Listen, when in doubt, diversify it out.

There's some reasons I still think you should be underweight bonds, relatively stocks, but that other stuff, right, commodity still makes sense.

And energy stocks are about as stretch as they've been. They're probably going to come back. That's fine. But have some managed futures.

Look at industrial still look really good materials. I mean, there's still some reasons to still still be diversified solely.

And I think we'll get through this. And again, we still think that's a peak and gain, you know, potentially low double digits this year.

I know it feels like a long way away. A year ago right now, we were down 5% for the year on this day. We're down about 2%.

We know the bottom fell out in April. We understand that. But we still think there's going to be an upward bias when this is all said and done.

Well, a little bit of optimism on the day before Friday the 13th. We could use it, but I will say the S&B is only down to 1.5% this year.

It's like we're down 20%. Everybody's like, oh, the markets are getting hammered. Not really, but let's hope that today maybe is the bottom.

Ryan Dietrich, Carson Group Chief Market Strategist and Lone Bengals fan. Ryan, thank you.

Thank you.

All right. Bad news for borrowers as oil prices keep going up. So are borrowing costs 10 year yields back about 4 and a quarter percent.

That is the highest level since early February. And the energy related hit. Let's be clear. It's not just here. It's not a US issue.

German other European bonds, their yields keep going up as well. Rick Santelli joining us now is the bond market or how much is the bond market we're connected to the energy market?

Well, I think it's connected, but I think it's sending a lot less bad news. You remember the old days, don't you?

Green shoots 0809. I think the long end has a lot more green shoots than everybody else. And if you consider that climate change was the big topic in Germany and they restricted themselves from fossil fuel, this is the price they pay.

Look at 2s and 10s. 2s are going wild today. They're up significantly more than 10s. Why? Because of the inflation that everybody keeps talking about in the marketplace is affecting investors psyche and taking away a lot of the easing probabilities in the Fed fund futures market.

And you just referenced bad news in the treasury market. Bad news going all the way to February 4th. That's the last time we're at this level around 425 or higher.

But in Europe, but you pointed out October of 23 and their interest rates are firm. The UK's interest rates are firm. And ultimately inflation and energy, you said the road to 150 oil, I'll take you a cheeseburger. We get nowhere near that back to you.

We're on. I didn't say we would. I didn't say we're going to hit it, but I'll bet you a cheeseburger. Just the road to it. I'd say it's the road to 70.

OK, that's a lot better than a cheeseburger. I'll take that that Rick. I always look back. I'll tell you what, here's the bet. I'll bet you we see 70 before we see 125. I'll take that 100%. I'll take it. All right. Cheeseburgers all around. Oh, Cheval fancy cheeseburger Chicago Rick. Thank you.

Some breaking news from Washington, a stock so nearing session lows doused out about 650. Amen. What are the headlines?

Kelly, we've got a new filing here from Customs and Border Protection detailing the process around those refunds for tariffs that are now court mandated. And what Customs and Border Protection is saying in this document is that this is a slow process. It's technically complicated, but they're working on it. That's my summary as a non trade lawyer and a non software programmer.

They're saying that they have to build an entirely new software system to handle these tariff claims that are coming in. You can only imagine the volume of this.

And they're also developing software to handle each of the processes within that. So they're giving us some updates here on progress made. And I'll just read you some of these stats. You get a sense. They say as of March 11, 2026, CBP estimates the development of its claim portal component of this software is 70% complete, but the mass processing component.

That's just 40% complete. They say the review liquidation re-liquidation component. That one is 80% and the refund component, which would be the important part of software designed to give refunds to people who pay tariffs. That is just 60% but they say once processed refunds will be sent electronically to designated bank accounts.

The next date here is that CBP is working on it, but it's complicated and it's going to take some time. Back up to you.

Beaking of complicated, there's someone now suing Costco to get his money reimbursed from them if they get reimbursed.

Good luck with that. That's a fascinating one because if that guy succeeds, I've bought some stuff at Costco last year too.

Exactly. There will be many people looking to get in on that. Amen. Thanks. Amen.

All right, coming up. Is it too late to get into the energy trade? Your next test says no, but he's got a particular way you could join in. Talk about that way. Next.

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Welcome back. It's time now for you've been waiting for it market navigator. Energy obviously outperforming every other sector given what's going on with oil this year, although it was happening even before that it's 30% since Jan one. All this while the Iran more continues our next guest. Well, he's got some ideas. He says there's still time to jump in if you want to add more energy exposure to your portfolio.

So in a senior ETF and technical strategist at Stratigas taught it's great to see you. Let's talk equal weight energy ETF and half why these two.

Hey, Kelly, great to speak with you. There's a little bit of a sugar rush going on energy as you mentioned up 30% since January we've seen an abundance of ETF flows go to the sector, but this is more about structural normalization folks for realizing how under exposed they are to the energy and material space.

I feel like RSVG because of the equal weight nature and energy you want to get pushed around too much by the cap weight names. And if you're saying I don't want just pure energy HAP natural resources that's going to have energy materials metals and mining some industrials in their tooth you're getting the whole real assets place space if these inflationary pressures keep up.

But we think this deserves a major spot in portfolios because it's uncorrelated to large cap growth. That's the key word here going forward, forward uncorrelated.

Since you're a technical guy, we'll keep a technical. I won't ask you about the fundamentals of deer, which is in the HAP ETF and what it could be facing, but we just spoke with Ryan Dietrich who also kind of looks at things this way.

He said almost in passing, you know, the energy obviously is a little bit overextended. I'm curious what you would say in response to that.

Yeah, tactically absolutely it's most overbought sector out there. But if you zoom out right keep in mind we just went from 2022 to 2026 with energy being a drag on portfolio. So now there's this massive shift underway back to a more inflationary regime. There's this possibility of a second wave.

And I think that's what's being reflected in energy and material specifically. So yes, if you're a very short term player, not the best to chase here.

I think if you're a structural allocator, then absolutely you want to get in because that uncorrelated nature.

Hard to quickly. I want to get you in on the cheeseburger trade. Do you think oil goes to 125? Was it 125 Brian or 70 first?

70 or 125?

Okay. Rixas 70. We're we're feeling 125. What do you say?

Listen, I think you can lean towards at a higher for longer, but use options, right? If I'm wrong, use the options market. That way you're limiting capital. You can play USO and the options market is deep there.

To play both sides of that. Why not?

Because that's not how it works. I don't even know that that would be like I get cheeseburgers for everything or or something.

I'll come up with the right analogy, Todd. But in other words, you think maybe we could stay elevated 9,500, what number?

What does higher for longer mean for you?

We hit 110, right? The other on Sunday, Monday morning. So that's 125 is not that far. If you keep getting these volatile headlines in this world, who knows?

So listen, call options on USO. I think that makes the most sense for investors out there.

All right. We appreciate your time. Todd, thanks. Todd's on with your teakus, Brian.

All right. Is the bottom for software stocks already in?

We're going to ask an analyst of those stocks of the all clear.

There's a lot more going on in the market, not just energy. We're going to hit some of it as markets are down across the board. Next.

All right. No sugar coating it. We would never do that anyway. Software has gotten crushed this year. The group as a whole down 18%.

But take a look at one of the biggest software ETFs out there, the ISG, which since last Monday, it's first trading days since the start of the Iran War, has actually outperformed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100.

It kind of begs the question, is the software bottom in or just kind of a head fake pause before another leg down joining us to help answer that question as well as Fargo software analyst Michael turn.

So yeah, Michael listen, we don't need to tell you horrible start to the year. Things have calmed down for a couple of days, but what's ahead?

Yeah, it's hard not to say there's going to be some level volatility. It's tough to say this is the bottom for the broader sector.

But we do think this is a stock pickers market and software and you have the benefit of being able to start with the highest quality franchises given the broad sell off.

In general software still waiting for its AI moment. We think we're seeing some of it in the AI infrastructure space with names like Microsoft and Oracle.

And that you'll start to see it in cyber security next as agents of tools ramp.

But in the app space, it's going to take time given some of the newer models still take time to diffuse into the existing app.

So still some uncertainty out there. I think we'll see choppy waters across the space for the next couple of quarters at least.

We like to lump them all together. Michael, it's, you know, software is down. They all do something different. I mean, they all serve as different people, customers types of software.

But it's all about the risk of AI. So is there a way to rank like what types of software companies are at the greatest risk of getting kneecapped by artificial intelligence?

Yeah, I mean, we are more comfortable in your term with spaces like the AI infrastructure space and platform enableers there.

Cyber security saw a bit of a headache at the start of this year as well. But we think those platforms, particularly Palo Alto and CrowdStrike are likely to prove more resilient and then vertical software.

There's been a lot of back and forth in terms of industry expertise. We do think names like Autodesk also have stronger position.

It's the app software space that is based in the greatest uncertainty, just because those are seat based models and they're generally later cycles.

So we're waiting for the compute to flow from infrastructure into apps. This is going to take some time.

I do think in general the incumbent platforms are a lot better position than they're getting credit for.

So again, starting with the household names across software feels like a great place for anyone looking to take on some exposure here.

I almost want to ask you the opposite question, Michael, and make you sort of convince me that AI is going to replace any of these software names.

And maybe Adobe after the bell is a good example of something that is more hard hit, where people are sentiment has really turned much more south because of the ability to DIY.

But I'm like, we're so early on in this technology. It's not about the technology being amazing.

I mean, to go from A to B is just such a big leap to make, given the valuations we're seeing for some of these stocks.

You're preaching to the choir a little bit, so I'll try to provide a balanced answer.

I do think we've just taken on more tooling, particularly after COVID and things like remote work came into place.

So the argument there are too many software tools in the hands of general business users is probably a good one.

And I think that's what the markets most comfortable with is suggesting that many of these companies maybe won't have as strong a value as we work through the tech ship, but the household names.

I think are being massively underestimated at this point.

Thank you. Exactly. I was just going to say what is there because this is actually a use case where gener of technology has value.

It's really been coding that has taken the world by storm designers are becoming a lot more productive using these tools.

Adobe has taken on more of a marketplace strategy.

They still added two billion of net new business last year.

They're still growing around 11% their growth rate is not deteriorated the way the market expected.

They're still healthy growing businesses like Canada and Figma in those markets as well.

So we think the markets missing just the size of the market getting bigger as all of us can use these tools and what's happening within Adobe is creative suite as you can try all of these models.

So that gives them a better bridge than I think they're getting credit for at the moment.

Well, we can look forward to hearing what they have to say. I won't do any more cheeseburger bets, but this is another one that feels like it's going to really be.

I'm going to hire from here or, you know, I'm missing something. Michael, thanks. Appreciate it.

Thanks very much for having me on Michael turn of Wells Fargo.

Well, let's get over to Julia Borsa now. They see NBC news update.

Brian, this aspect in a Michigan synagogue shooting has died according to multiple reports.

Local police say no one appears to be injured after one individual approached the synagogue security today before gunfire was exchanged.

One security guard was also hurt FBI director Cash Patel said agents are on the scene to assist the local sheriff and says they are still trying to determine if there was anyone else involved.

Authorities in Ethiopia say at least 100 people are dead after heavy rains in the southern part of the country caused a massive landslide dozens of people are still missing.

It's part of a storm system that's caused torrential rains across East African recent days causing widespread flooding.

And President Trump discouraged the Iranian men's national soccer team from attending the World Cup.

Trump said in a social media post quote, I really don't believe that it is appropriate that they be there for their own life and safety.

Iran's sports minister said yesterday that the war makes it impossible for Iran to attend.

Parallelant will be right back.

Welcome back stocks are selling off this afternoon as oil prices surge once again and tensions continue in the Middle East.

The Nasdaq is the biggest loser. All of the mag seven names are actually in the red, which is a little bit of a break with what we've seen up until now.

In fact, some of the best known mega cap texts are down about 2% or more this week, 4% if you're Amazon.

But geopolitics is not deterring to well known investors from joining forces right now committing new capital and tech and digital asset firm eight co to invest in some of the hottest companies in these spaces.

Let's welcome in Kathy Woods, CEO and CIO of ARC Invest and Tom Lee head of research at Fundstrat, Chair of Bitmine Immersion Technologies and a CNBC contributor.

Welcome to both of you. Tom, you want to just start with your thoughts on the markets. Why is tech kind of not participating this time?

They've been a ballast so far in this in the sell off.

Yeah, I mean, I think tech in general has actually held up really well, including software.

It makes sense to us because and it's I'm going to make a counter intuitive statement higher oil is relatively good for US equities because one, you know, the US is a net producer of oil.

But as people worry about global growth slowing because of high oil, they want to own growth stocks, which actually makes them want to own the US stock market because it is a growth index, especially the mag seven and software.

So I actually think that this kind of makes sense and I've heard the earlier conversation today.

I'm also in the camp that I think we're making our bottom this month for the equity markets.

Okay, what about you know, we got Jeffries down 7% Deutsche down about that much. A lot of people are trying to look around poke into where these private credit exposures and stuff might be.

What would you say about that narrative right now, Tom?

Well, you know, private credit's been a problem for some time. So I think it has been increasingly revealing as Jamie Diamond said more cockroaches.

I do think it's probably not as systematic as we might fear. I know people carry the Lehman hammer and think that this is a repeat of the GFC.

But again, there's a lot of reasons it's not a systematic one is just the size of the market's not nearly as large.

But also things that look like credit stress aren't really signaling like they did in 2008.

So I'm, you know, I think it's hurting financials right now, but I don't think it's a broader problem for the market or the economy.

Kathy, you guys are looking if I'm not mistaken to kind of help the public get into more early stage growth companies.

And we saw last week Robin Hood did something similar, their IPO and venture fund.

And this comes against this backdrop where a lot of the kind of growthy companies have ended up in private markets and they don't go public anymore.

Then I know the SEC has a big push to try to change that, but one of the problems as you others know is that sometimes they don't perform that well. It's very risky.

So could you just comment on the current state of affairs like the private markets have losses.

You go in the public markets, people don't want losses, but they want access to growthy companies.

You know, who can they feel confident will help give them the best of the bunch?

Yes, Kelly. Well, it's very interesting to be managing money at this time and to have managed money very early portfolio manager early in my years in the tech and telecom bubble.

It's night and day. There was no fear back then. And today there's extreme fear.

And there are some reasons understand that, but I believe and this is going to fit into what Tom just said.

I believe the market when we look back, maybe at the end of this year, is going to be characterized as climbing a wall of worry.

And of course, now with the war, there is another reason. There are another few bricks being put into that wall.

This is a really good time to pick up on stocks that might be more volatile volatility in our world.

It does not measure risk as much as it measures uncertainty.

And I think the new technologies evolving today and the way we do ARC does its research on these technologies to understand how they're going to scale and who's leading the pack.

I think we're in a very good position and the opportunities this is a technology revolution.

And we are not in an AI hype cycle. And we think it has miles to go.

And of course, consider the source. It's all we do. But we're beginning to see results astounding results at companies like Anthropic and open AI in terms of their ARRs.

Looking Kathy at your top holdings as of the last filing, you still love Tesla.

Is there a thesis at all that what's happening in Iran, energy prices, whatever, will send some Tesla had a problem because Elon Musk,

some literally my neighbors sold their cars because they're like, oh, they can't get on board the Musk.

Do you think though that higher gas prices might push people to rethink the next car they buy to the benefit of Tesla?

Absolutely, absolutely. And we do think the trend in oil prices is down.

But at this moment of time, yes, everyone's thinking that decision.

But they'll also buy Tesla for another reason with hardware for full self driving.

Tesla's Tesla car.

Should you choose to lease them out can become revenue generators for people. And the cash flows coming off these cars are going to be quite substantial because Uber, the umbrella, $2.80 per mile is so high.

So stay tuned for that. We think analysts as they do their models are going to be shocked at the cash flow characteristics of this new model.

Tom, just going back to eight co, which has investments, including small ones in open AI and beast industries, but the stock has not done well and it's very small.

I believe Dan Ives was chair and I think you guys are kind of both stepping into this now.

Can you talk broadly about what your plans are to invest here, especially at a time when there's been a lot of underperformance in the crypto space?

I mean, is that a space that you're looking to double down in?

Ako is actually world's largest holder of world coin, which is a blockchain for proof of humanity.

And what Ako has done strategically and Kathy is in some ways, her team is really providing a lot of guiding light is to provide adjacent and complimentary technologies and services.

So that's why there's an investment not only into open AI and Sam Altman is the founder of both world coin and open AI, but also bringing in global, the biggest global content creator, which is beast industries.

And in fact, Ako is actually facilitated actually the communication and the bridging between beast and open AI.

So I think that this is now a company where you have exposure to really one of the most important blockchains, but now you can also have based for public investor, an investment into open AI, which as you know, is going to go public this year.

This is the only public vehicle that you can get exposure and also have exposure to beast.

Kathy, kind of a similar question. I worry a lot about the due diligence.

I mean, this is coming up now, of course, with some of these private portfolios as well, but there's less reporting requirements.

You know, it's the flip side of the coin. Do you want to get exposure to more speculative stuff early on knowing that it may not perform, it may not, you know, meet the performance you're looking for?

You know, I think this idea, this idea, we're effectively creating a new social network because I think many people are surprised to learn that AI output written output this year.

It has just talked in the last year just talked all of human written output output in the last year.

And by the end of this decade, AI will produce more in one year, more than all of human written output in history.

And so 80% of what we're beginning to see on networks is AI generated.

So this idea, proof of humanhood is going to become more important. I don't like it when I think something's real and a real person, you know, promoting it or giving me some context.

When I find AI is the reason I'm seeing this, and there's no reason, meaning I have no agents that I've sent out to find it.

I am getting to the point where I want to know who is sending this, a real person or not.

I do think the introduction of open AI, what we have here is really an operating system. Open AI, it's really interesting.

It is 80% of all of the attention for the last quarter, the last month, the last year, out there in terms of AI.

And so we think this combination, which will help us reach human beings, that with the 1 billion users, and then with one of the biggest influencers, Mr. Beast, who has 500 million subscribers, we may see some influencing going on.

So it's a very interesting new social network evolving. And I think people are underestimating what's going on here.

Okay, last thing, Tom, beginning you said you thought the market bottomed out this month. Listen, S&B small caps up this year, mid caps up this year, S&Ps down 2.5%.

I mean, we really haven't had a stock shock this year. Do you think we're going to get one? We'll make sure confident that markets may bottom this month.

Yeah, well, Brian, it seems convenient because we know oil is uncertain. In fact, we could have $100 oil prediction markets are looking past June for $100 oil, so an extended war and high oil.

And investors want to think that that's the reason we actually have a decline here.

I think positioning has already rapidly moved. Ryan pointed out the put cost you, but we know the mag 7's been in a mini bear and software.

So to me, I think a lot of the bad news is priced in now. I'm more in the camp that we're going to rally for the next few months towards $7,300.

But later this year, we have a bear market like, but it's more testing the Fed.

All right, thank you both, Tom Lee, Kathy Wood. We appreciate it. Parallelunch. We'll be back right after this.

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