Navigating the Volatility 3/11/26

Fandool is dropping bonus bets into everyone's account for the tournament.

All you have to do is opt in to claim your bonus.

But don't wait, these bonus bets are only available for a limited time.

Fandool, play your game!

21 plus in present and select states.

Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt.

Max bonus $500 unless otherwise specified.

Restrictions apply.

See terms at sportsbook.fandool.com, gambling problem called 1-800-Gampler.

This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab.

Join host Keith Lansford for this information-packed daily market preview delivered in ten minutes or less,

including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions, and key results and statistics

that may impact your trading.

Download the latest episode and subscribe at Schwab.com slash Market Update Podcast,

or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.

A bit of a mixed bag for stocks, even as oil ticks back higher.

Welcome to Power Lunch, everybody.

Shoes Kelly, I'm Brian.

Stocks mostly lower right now, financials.

One of the decliner's down over a percent oil also on the move.

The Paris-based IEA saying 400 million barrels of oil will be released.

They'll curb the straight-of-form mood supply disruption.

We've got a big guest in a few minutes.

We are joined by interior secretary Doug Virgo.

And the stakes are high for more than just oil,

shipping of retail and other goods is also at a standstill as the midi's conflict continues.

Iran reportedly struck three cargo ships in the straight-of-form moves.

We'll speak to the chief executive of one of the biggest shipping insurance brokers in the world

that's coming up this hour.

But we start with the markets as the major averages are moving lower,

and the war in Iran continues.

Our next guest is out with a new note saying the historic move in oil prices.

Warren's a re-evaluation of the risks, and he's updating his strategies as a result.

Joining us is Venue Krishna.

He's the head of U.S. equity strategy at Barclays Investment Bank.

And good luck, Venue, to anyone.

Our last guest was looking at this more from the ag space.

But he said, yeah, I thought to be days or weeks.

Now I'm thinking weeks or months.

What are you thinking?

Yeah, I think this situation we are in, it looks like it's probably got more life.

It's not going to get resolved as quickly as the market is expecting.

But interestingly, the market is still as if now

pricing, as if it's being looking through it,

then there will be an imminent resolution to that.

But that said, I think it does call for us to look at

just the historical precedence and to see

if this were to get extended, how do you position?

And like you noted in our recent work,

we are recommending more tilt towards value,

which historically has tended to do better.

And at this point in time, if you look at the composition of the value basket,

not only is it meaningfully cheaper or the longer term versus where the growth basket is,

the same time, if you look at the composition,

they are more exposed to commodity-oriented areas,

which obviously tend to get bid up in the geopolitical risk is higher.

But that's not fair to think about it.

So you say value-positive growth neutral,

and yet we've almost seen the opposite kind of stock performance,

or we've seen the Mag 7 kind of cushioned the market tech has been leading

the way software has been on a comeback.

Whereas materials that's going to be a tougher story,

consumer staples, we've seen some sputtering there.

Sure. So I think to connect to your point from the beginning of the year,

that areas you really liked are threefold.

One is tech, especially big tech.

And the second is financials, and the third was utilities.

So we haven't changed that.

And you are right in saying that big tech,

we have a very interesting situation,

because of the reason why we like it even more.

So since the last two quarters,

their earnings have continued to beat

expectation per residual margin,

and yet their multiples have been moderating in a steady basis.

As recently as a couple of days ago,

they were trading big tech as a group,

which is just essentially six stocks.

At about 24 times forward earnings,

they were at 31 times at the start of last year.

So I think we like the setup in which their earnings

revisions are going up.

Their multiples are coming down,

and the profitability is actually expanded even further

in Q4 by about roughly 150 basis points.

The one overhang is that they continue to spend quite aggressively

with their spend this year up more than 60%

and next year it moderates,

but the spending levels are very high.

So I think that is what is a key issue,

but we think in terms of where you would rather stay in a market like this,

in which geopolitical risk going up,

we would still feel very comfortable in big tech.

Small cap companies are a greater exposure to oil and gas prices than larger cap,

because they rely on the American consumer to buy their goods and services.

Gasoline prices are 50 cents a gallon higher than they were one year ago,

Vino, and probably going up, will that kill or hurt the small cap story?

Actually, it's interesting you just bring that up,

because we actually turned a more negative on small caps after having

changed an outlook a few months ago.

For a long time, we were negative on small caps and we changed the view recently,

but we flipped again to your point.

You know, once geopolitical risk goes up,

you know, oil going up is one piece of it,

but it does affect consumer sentiment.

These companies are a lot more levered.

They have let less operating flexibility,

a lower margin profile,

and the critical thing is fundamentally,

if you look at the divisions compared to large cap revision trends,

which are by the way are excellent right now.

Small caps don't get that good.

What does that mean?

Large cap revision trends are excellent.

We like the E word.

We like to hear excellent.

What does that mean?

It means that if you look at where you started the year,

what was the expectation on a consensus basis for earnings?

For example, it was roughly around, you know,

$307, where consensus.

Right now, we're sitting at close to

quality in the 3-17 range.

That's a pretty sharp increase.

If you look at realized earnings for large caps,

it was close to 12% on sales growth of little over 7%.

So very strong operating leverage.

In other words, the numbers,

competitive, and three months ago are going up to the right.

And that is not necessarily what we are seeing in small caps.

All right.

The new, thanks so much for joining us.

And again, you know, it's a good luck to anyone.

Do you have a thought now for how long this could last?

Days, weeks, months, years?

No, I mean, to be honest,

I'd be foolish if I were to claim I know it.

I think nobody knows.

But we do know that the longer this persists,

the more problematic it is in terms of the impact on global energy markets,

the on global economies, eventually on GDP.

And you're looking at the impact on inflation expectations,

hence the move in 10-year rates, which definitely is worrisome.

We are not in that range right now.

But once you've reached 4.5% on the 10th, watch out.

Right. We're around 4.20 or higher even now.

So 4.5, you say, watch out.

The new, thanks so much for joining us.

Good to see you.

From Barclays today.

All right. Well, speaking of interest rates,

we've got some breaking news from your tax money with a release.

All the big monthly treasury statement.

Let's find out what is in it.

Steve Liesman is here with that and those headlines, Steve.

Hey, Brian, some interesting headlines here.

The February deficit, that's just the month was up 2% over one year ago,

up $7 billion.

But fiscal year to date, doing a little better,

down 12% to 1.004 trillion to be precise.

And the issue there is that treasury outlets were up by 2%,

but receipts were up more by 6%.

And this is stuff that's going to change.

Right now, we're watching this issue of individual receipts

were up 5% for corporates were down 49%.

But here's what's going to change is these custom duties.

Well, we don't know if they are.

They had a good month, up 27 billion, up 19 billion dollars

from a year ago before the tariffs were put on.

And fiscal year to date, they were up by 151 billion,

or up 251 billion by 131 billion.

We don't know how much of that goes away.

We don't know how much is coming in refunds.

Speaking of refunds, this was supposed to be a big refund here

and getting some mixed results here.

Into the original reason coming in at $64 billion,

that's up just 6 billion from a year ago.

But looking at the year over year,

and the fiscal year to date numbers,

it's 104 versus 103.

So we're not quite yet seeing those big refunds.

It was a report from City yesterday,

which used March data.

This data ends in February, guys,

saying it was running about $30, $33 billion,

which was about a third of the big expectations out there.

So we're going to have to watch this, Brian.

What's happening with these refunds?

Obviously, there's going to be tariff refunds,

also going to be individual tax refunds

that are supposed to be robust this year

and help propel spending.

But not quite in the data just yet.

Not quite in the data just yet.

Do we know when we might get that?

I mean, listen, one month, as you have said many times,

it does not a trend make.

When can we establish some kind of longer term

or medium term trends?

So February's supposed to be a really good month for these.

And they are running about 10% hotter, higher,

which is a good number.

I just talked to Robert Frank,

who was our expert in all this stuff.

And he told me that a lot of the refunds go to rich people,

rich people take their time.

So maybe the bigger refunds are yet to come.

So we just have to monitor this.

And it's supposed to be a big part of why retail

is supposed to do good or do well,

the first part of this year.

And we're watching these daily numbers

in fact to see how well they're doing.

Get a refund by a couch.

Steve Lisbon, couch.

Thank you.

Pulled out sofa?

Maybe, friends of the price.

All right, now to the bond markets yields.

They are pushing higher again today.

The tinier yield on pace for its highest close

since February six.

This folks assign markets over pricing,

the path for rates and inflation.

It is also impacting the rate you pay.

If you want to buy a house,

30-year mortgage rate hitting 6.19% today.

That is the highest level since early February.

And Kelly's we just heard of a new Christus say,

if and when, if the tinier gets back to 4.5%.

Things may go sideways.

Bigger pressure point for sure.

Yep.

All right, speaking of big,

we've got a big interview coming up for you interior secretary.

Doug Bergen will join us live as Iran.

He tells the world to get ready for $200 a barrel oil.

But is that just a hollow threat?

Bank of America's head of commodities will join us

on the other side of the break.

And then the interior secretary,

lots of do.

We're back right after this.

Life's busy.

Don't let banking slow you down.

Whether you're paying bills,

setting savings goals,

or just splitting the check.

Atlantic Union Bank makes managing your money easier.

With helpful people and user friendly tools,

we make sure banking with us fits you.

Call, visit us online,

or drop into an Atlantic Union bank branch today.

Atlantic Union Bank.

Any way you bank.

College Bats will analyze John Routstein here.

The tourney is on and when teams go on big runs,

you can win big with fan duels early win payouts.

It doesn't matter if they're a one-seater or an underdog.

If at any time your team is up by 10, you win instantly.

21-plus in present in select states.

Option required, tokens are non withdrawalable.

Restrictions apply including token expiration,

market requirements, and max wage or amount.

See terms at fandual.com slash sportswear.

Gambling problem called 1-800-Gamber.

This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update,

an original podcast from Charles Schwab.

Join host Keith Lansford for this information-packed

daily market preview delivered in 10 minutes or less,

including projected stock updates,

monetary policy decisions, and key results and statistics

that may impact your trading.

Download the latest episode and subscribe at Schwab.com slash

market update podcast or find Schwab Market Update

wherever you get your podcasts.

Welcome back, oil.

Other commodities also squarely in focus

as the shipping standoff around the straight-of-form moves

enters its second week.

We've got WTI crewed up five and a half to 88.

You've got fertilizer, net gas, and even drinking water,

all impacted by a lack of ships coming and going.

Some have tried, and today the UK Maritime Authority

says three freighters were hit

with some kind of attacks in the area.

Mean time the IEA saying it'll have

its 32 member countries release 400 million barrels

of oil to East supply issues.

That's more than twice as much as was released

from those stockpiles when Russia invaded Ukraine.

It comes as Iran is trying to hit America in the wallet

and warning of $200 oil,

what does Francisco Blanche think?

He's B.A. Security's head of commodities

and derivatives research.

Francisco, it's good to see you.

Are we going back up to 119?

Or are we kind of, you know,

we're gonna look back on that and say,

yeah, no, that was just a one-off thing.

Well, I really think it depends on the duration

of this conflict.

We are looking at, in our baseline scenario,

we are looking at Brent averaging $77.5 for a year,

which would imply prices likely peak sometime

this quarter, next quarter, averaging,

so this month, next month, averaging about $85.90 a barrel.

But that's only the conflict ends shortly.

I think if we are looking at a prolonged conflict

where it's spills into the second quarter,

prices will be minimally higher.

We think that we could see highs of $130 a barrel

if we spill into a second quarter,

if we spill into a third quarter,

we think the highs could be 161.70.

And of course, if we start carving into a fourth quarter,

we could be over $200 a barrel.

But that would require a pretty extent

the conflict here in our view.

Right, I mean, we're hoping it doesn't do anything like.

Does it make sense to you, Francisco,

the market action, the price of oil stocks here?

I think, I think oil is reacting

with the view that this war is going to last days,

if not maybe a couple more weeks,

and that kind of makes sense to me.

The deficits that we estimate for this quarter,

barrels from a hormones,

but it only goes on for, again,

it's only, our numbers only work if this lasts for days,

not months, right?

So there's a clear time limit

as to how much the market can take,

and there's a risk that it goes up exponentially

if somehow the conflict extends itself in time.

That's, I think, very, very important.

So, market's confidence is going to end up soon,

and that's kind of what President Trump

has been guiding everyone to think, I think.

Well, maybe the least important major commodity

going through this trade of hormones,

I mean, fertilizer, you want to eat over wanting to drive

and fertilizer 30 to 50% different types of chemicals

going through, a potable drinking water, natural gas,

which goes into even things like pharmaceuticals

all going through that straight, Francisco,

but you gotta admit, sort of the Kelly's point.

This is remarkable.

I want to kind of just highlight to our audience,

we have the greatest supply disruption in oil

since the early 1970s,

and sort of the Suez crisis and war,

and yet the price of oil, while higher than it was a while ago,

is still the same price it was two years ago,

three years ago, and lower than it was,

four years ago, even you, Francisco, got admit.

That is remarkable.

It is remarkable, there's no question about it,

but I also think that a lot of it's because the market

still prices in a pretty short duration of this conflict.

Remember, the US today is a net energy exporter.

There is, of course, the potential response from US shale.

There is strategic stocks, China itself has built a massive

strategic concern reserve.

So there's a number of buffers, but as I said,

if it goes on in time,

this is 20% of the world's supplies we're looking at here

for oil and gas, it will impact oil markets.

In fact, it's already impacting markets.

We are seeing factories in different parts of the world

slowing down and shutting off temporarily

because of a lack of feedstock for petrochemicals, for instance.

And again, if you look at the Russia Ukraine war,

it kind of started a little bit like this.

It just went on forever,

and we ended up with essentially $600 a barrel global gas,

or $19.00 NM and BTU global gas.

So again, a lot of its duration,

we started in February, the war started in February,

imputing in May of Ukraine,

and gas didn't peak until September.

So it took six months for that.

So let's just keep that in mind.

Yeah.

It really is how the duration of the conflict.

Fair enough.

And to quote the great poet philosopher Mike Tyson,

he said, everybody has a plan

until you get punched in the face.

And we're talking about a two-week war, three-week war.

And we'll talk about this a little more

with Secretary of Interior Doug Bergman a moment.

But yet, Iran is going to have a say in all of this.

We don't know anything about the new Supreme Leader.

Yeah, I told a committee's son.

We don't know anything about who's actually

running the country.

And we do know that like today,

some ships are hit with drones.

Thankfully, I hope everybody was okay.

Oman may or may not be partly on fire.

What if this does go on for five months?

Then what?

Well, if this goes on for five months, as I mentioned,

we are going to have a massive energy supply,

shortfall, and therefore the mother of all

demand rationing exercises.

Energy and GDP are closely interlinked.

So 1% energy is about 1% GDP.

If we lose, let's say, or most, we

are talking about 20% of world's oil supplies

and 20% of LNG, put it all together.

You're probably losing roughly about 10, 15%

of aggregate energy supplies.

So unless we can reroute, we are probably

going to lose several percentage points of global GDP.

That's the reality of this war if it goes on for six, 12 months.

Now, I'm not sure that the Iranians have the ability to do that.

I think we've heard messages from the Trump administration

saying they are confident they're going to reopen the trade.

But also, we saw happen with the Houthis in Yemen.

And I'm happy that went with Babel Mandev and the Red Sea.

So those are some of the big concerns we all

have as to the duration of this war.

We don't know, as you said.

I think we haven't even heard the voice of the new Iran leader.

Many people haven't heard of this voice, right?

He wasn't even at his own installation rally, apparently.

I heard he was injured in the first day of the attacks

fractured a foot or something to that extent.

It doesn't sound like people think too highly of Comaini,

Jr., but we'll see.

Francisco Blanche, Bank of America,

Security's Francisco, thank you.

All right, so the oil gets all the headlines.

Just remember this, that 21 mile wide shipping

straight, which I've actually seen and been in in person,

is a critical choke point for many other major commodities

refined products.

One of those is fertilizers.

Now, fertilizers, this is not, you know,

what your horse used to produce.

These are chemical pellets.

They're about the size of a small gumball or a large BB.

And about one third to one half of some of these chemicals

head through the straight-of-four mousse.

So that puts a spotlight on American fertilizer producers

like CF industries, mosaic, and nutrient.

They're up seven, seven, and three percent right now

in nutrient at a 52-weekitis.

Remember, we're talking about food.

But interestingly enough, as our last analyst just told us,

this is not yet showing up in crop prices.

So the squeeze is actually on some of the farmers,

some of the dear, those kinds of companies.

We don't want it to pass along to food prices.

Don't get me wrong.

He said it's been contained so far,

but all of this goes back as Francisco said

to the duration of the conflict.

Coming up, interior secretary Doug Berger.

He'll join the show to talk the Iran War Energy Prices

and the IEA's decision to release

those 400 million barrels.

Stay tuned.

He's after the break.

This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update,

an original podcast from Charles Schwab.

Join host Keith Lansford for this information-packed

daily market preview delivered in 10 minutes or less,

including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions,

and key results and statistics

that may impact your trading.

Download the latest episode and subscribe at Schwab.com

slash Market Update Podcast

or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.

Men are struggling with their mental health

to some of the highest rates we've ever seen,

but most aren't getting the support they need

and that needs to change.

I'm Dr. Guy Winch, your host for season three

of The Visibility Gap, presented by Signal Healthcare.

This season we're focusing on men's mental health,

bringing together real stories and expert insight

to explore the pressures men face every day

and why opening up can feel so difficult.

Join us for the new season wherever you stream your podcasts.

Love college basketball?

Gear up for another exciting season

with a special offer from Bed MGM.

Sign into your Bed MGM account

and enjoy a college basketball odds boost token

to snag even more winnings on your next bet.

If you win your bet with your token activated,

you'll score extra winnings.

It's that simple.

Log in now and enjoy our odds boost token

to help you create another memorable season of college ball.

Bed MGM in game sense reminds you to play responsibly.

See betmgm.com for terms 21 plus only.

This promotional offer is not available

in Mississippi, New York, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.

Gambling problem call 1-800-Gamble or 1-800-Myreset.

For New York, call 8-77-8-HOPE-NY or TEXT-HOPE-NY-46-7369.

For Massachusetts, 1-800-327-5050.

For Iowa, 1-800-Bets Off.

For Puerto Rico, 1-800-9-8-1-00-2-3.

Subject to eligibility requirements

in partnership with Kansas Crossing, Casino, and Hotel.

All right, time for another big CNBC interview.

The news of the day is Paris-based International Energy Agency

saying it wants member countries to release

a record 400 million barrels of oil

the move designed to mitigate any impact

of the Iran war oil supply shock.

Now, the numbers vary, and everybody seems to have

their own estimate.

I want to make that clear.

But anywhere from a couple of million

to over 10 million barrels of oil per day

are not reaching where they need to in global markets.

Primarily, due to shipping fears and a massive slowdown

around the aforementioned straight-of-form moves,

oil prices, they are a little bit higher right now,

but they are still below 90 bucks of barrel.

And as I just said, oil prices wall up from where they were

are at the same prices that they hit a few times

over the last five years.

But there are still real worries

about the impact of the war on longer term prices.

So let's talk more about that and more

with US Interior Secretary Doug Burgham.

He oversees about one-fourth of all American oil production

on and off shore.

He is also the chair of the National Energy Dominance Council

and working go down closely with his friend

and fellow cabinet member,

Energy Secretary Chris Wright on this issue Secretary Burgham.

Thank you very much for joining us.

And people, they don't think of that.

They think of state parks,

but don't realize that so much oil production,

more than exon, by the way, is done on land

that is owned by the federal government

and the taxpayer on shore, off shore.

So what is your role in helping protect

against any oil supply shock?

Well, Brian, great to be with you.

And of course, this started the day

that President Trump got in office.

He summed it up, simply energy abundance,

and his words that resonated with the voters

was drill baby drill.

We'd come off of four years

of in the Biden administration

not holding the legally required lease sales,

which gave the private sector the opportunity

to lease land, gave the private sector an opportunity

to lease minerals to send a check to the treasury

and then develop those minerals with their own capital

and then send a royalty check to the federal government.

I mean, this is a business where the federal government

on public land were in partnership

with the ranchers, with the timber providers,

with the people that do mining

and certainly with the oil and gas industry.

And that's why we went to work last year

over 6,100 permits in just nine months

from when President Trump took office

through the end of the federal fiscal year

at the end of September.

The record number, more than any other full 12 month year,

we got out to people, which again, gave them the ability

to generate revenue and generate production.

And again, meeting with the American companies

over the last weeks and months,

and including some today that are here in town,

I think you're gonna see them all announcing

that they've increased production here in the United States

in response to the price signals

and in response to the need that we have right now.

So, President Trump, putting us in a spot as a country,

this is the most energy security the nation has ever had

because we're number one in the world

in producing oil, we're number one in producing natural gas,

number one in LNG exports, selling energy

to our friends and allies.

So, they don't have to buy from our adversaries,

but also keeping prices down here for Americans,

consumers in American industry at home.

So, President Trump's energy dominance policy is working.

We are at 13.5, 13.6 million barrels a day.

It's a record high, but we do use

about 19 to 20 million barrels a day.

So, there's a supply and demand gap

that has to be filled by imports.

Much of that from our friends in Canada,

by the way, thank goodness for Canada these days, right?

I think we can all kind of agree on that.

You're North Dakota.

I think you might know something about Canada up there,

but let's talk about the SPR.

I know it's not your or Secretary Wright's job

to call for the release.

That's the president's job, but do you agree with the IEA decision?

Well, I think what you're hearing out of the IEA today

is a reasonable on their part,

but clearly whether the U.S.

participates is up to President Trump.

He'll make the final decision on that.

The markets are reacting to supply demand.

They're also reacting sometimes

as you've seen the volatility last few days

to information, misinformation.

What they think of as either progress

on freedom of navigation or progress

on taking away the capabilities for the terrorist regime

of Iran to do what they've been doing

for 47 years, literally.

I mean, let's remember Americans that are old enough can remember.

They started their regime with taking Americans hostage.

That's what they did on day one.

Now they're trying to take hostage

the entire world economy by saying we are going to,

we meaning the terrorist regime of Iran,

not the Iranian people, but the terrorist regime

that they're going to control the flow of oil to and from.

I mean, that impedes on the rights of many of our Arab neighbors

and allies that are there.

And as you know, as you've highlighted,

huge production center of production for global energy.

The fact that that risk has always been there

and could have been executed on at any time

as part of the reason why President Trump said

we've got to build energy security here at home

and one of those things is Venezuela.

I just down in Venezuela on last week for two days

with the new leadership there

and what an opportunity for the Western hemisphere

to move the geopolitical center of energy back

to the Western hemisphere because of their enormous resources,

our resources and of course, you know,

again, Alberta and Saskatchewan also having great resources.

You know, I would love to know,

I'm Mr. Secretary Kelly here.

Your colleagues deleted Tweet.

I mean, if we'd ever want to be behind the scenes,

yeah, we're there, yes, the market's up

and then it's down and there's so much drama

and so much uncertainty about what's happening in the street.

And I don't know if you're the right person

to ask this question to or to tell us

the current state of things,

but you know, how much do you think

is flowing through the street right now

and what are the prospects for those flows

to go back towards normal at any point soon?

I'm amazed at how relatively resilient the energy markets

and the stock markets have been in the face of this.

Well, I think the resilience is a function of the confidence

that the markets have in President Trump

and in the U.S. military.

I mean, when you take a look at the fact that in this short

of a time frame, you take out Iran's,

the terrorist regime, you take out their Air Force,

you take out their anti-aircraft missile capability,

you take out their Navy, you start knocking out, you know,

mining, mining these small fast boats

that they would do mining from,

like taking out Coke boats in the Gulf of America.

When people start seeing that visually,

the speed at which this happened,

now I know expectations are high

because President Trump took a sanctioned adversary,

Venezuela, and in less than two hours,

turned them into a strategic ally.

This is gonna take a little bit longer,

but here, but the speed at which our military is moving,

I had a schedule, I think the markets are reflecting

that they've got confidence that we're gonna have

free flow of navigation again in the future

and that the U.S. is gonna get the job done.

Energy dominance.

So you mentioned Venezuela.

It's the weight in all my invite,

by the way, I'm happy to go down there as well.

How much oil do you reasonably believe

that we can get from Venezuela in the next year?

One year from today.

Well, I think again, the initial expectations were

that what Venezuela was producing,

that they could increase that by 50% fairly quickly.

And that was, you know, get them started.

I mean, they were about 800,000 barrels a day,

getting them back to 1.2 quickly, you know, historically,

they were as high as three and a half million barrels

and that was before all the new technologies came in.

So it's reasonable to expect that these guys

could be a four million barrel and oil day contributor

to world supplies as they come back online with investment.

But having been down there in the speed

at which Venezuela is moving,

Venezuela leadership is moving at Trump's speed.

That's what their goal is.

You know, they passed the new hydrocarbon law in three weeks.

And when we were there last week,

obviously the mining sector, huge opportunity in mining,

they've got precious metals, you know, in particularly gold.

They've got some of the largest gold reserves in the world

over $500 billion worth of gold reserves.

But boxite for aluminum, which we need for both consumer

and automotive and for defense tech,

they're just rich and rare earth minerals.

The mining executives that were there said,

hey, it would be great if we had a law

like the hydrocarbon law.

The Venezuelan leadership said,

hey, we'll give us your input by Saturday.

The mining executive said, why?

They said because we're introducing a bill next Monday.

That Monday was two days ago.

It passed the initial hurdles in their legislature the same day.

You know, and of course that's Delce's brother

that is the president of the Senate.

This sibling leadership team in Venezuela

wants this country to be competitive for US capital

and for foreign investment to come in

to help get their economy going.

And the US is not dragging them forward.

They are going fast to get back into being a place

where capital can be safely deployed.

I was at a conference yesterday

put on by the Royal Bank of Canada.

Again, another Canadian reference.

And there's a lot of Canadian companies,

TC Energy, Enbridge, some others

that send us a lot of their oil.

Would you as interior secretary

and former North Dakota governor

write up against Canada,

support more importing of Canadian oil?

Well, we've been a great partner with Canada.

And I think one of the things that maybe people

that were paying attention understood,

but under President Trump's leadership,

there have been zero tariffs on Canadian energy

since he took office.

And it hasn't been contemplated.

And again, that's for smart strategic reasons.

That's the benefit to both of our countries.

And again, Kudos to Alberta and Saskatchewan

and the leadership there, Daniel Smith, Scott Moe,

doing a great job developing their energy resources.

And obviously, we all win together on that one

in terms of both affordability and energy security

and reliability.

So that's one area where the partnership

is really working between those two provinces

in the United States.

Interior secretary Doug Bergham,

Secretary Bergham notes been a busy time.

We appreciate you taking some time

to join us here on CNBC.

Thank you.

Thank you, Brian.

Great to be with you.

Always. And I believe I think

we're going to be speaking with Secretary Wright

some point in the next 24 hours as well.

So we'll see.

Looking forward to that.

A lot going on.

It's very fluid indeed, very.

The risk premium speaking of which

has soared to get ships through the Strait of Hormuz,

we'll speak with the head of one of the largest insurance

brokers in the world about that right after this.

Tensions are boiling over in the waters of the Middle East

around striking three cargo ships off at shores this morning,

according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations Center,

including this Thailand flagged cargo ship,

transiting the Strait of Hormuz

with 23 people on board.

Its operator says the vessel was hit

by two projectiles of unknown origin.

Shipping traffic through the vital waterway

has ground to a near standstill

since the start of the Iran War.

And in the last hour, news crossing

that insurance giant Chubb will be the lead underwriter

for a US government-led insurance program

for ships in this region.

Joining us now for more is Marcus Baker,

the global head of marine cargo and logistics at Marsh.

One of the biggest shipping insurance brokers in the world,

they also work with Chubb.

It's great to have you here, Marcus,

and just a comment on the significance of this Chubb deal

and what you think the current situation is

for ensuring ships through the Strait.

Yeah, thank you so much for having me on Kelly.

Look, I think any announcement like this

serves to create a degree of certainty in the announcement

that the president made last week

in terms of the involvement of the DFC.

And our perspective on that is that's a good thing.

So anything that's going to help to increase confidence

in the market and increase confidence

amongst ship owners is going to be good.

In terms of the current situation there,

look, it hasn't changed an awful lot.

And I think the primary reason for that is

that it's not an insurance issue.

Insurance is the insurance market is vibrant,

it's working, it's offering terms.

I think it's a safety issue.

And that's going to be probably one of the next hurdles

that we need to get over as an economy

or as the economy to actually figure out

what that's going to mean, how we're going to do that

to protect seafarers and assets going through the region.

Let's repeat what you've just said.

It's so important.

This is not an insurance issue.

It's a safety issue.

And this echoes what we've heard over the past couple of days.

People say you can get coverage to go through

the freight rates have surged.

So it's actually profitable if you can make it through.

So from your industry's point of view,

well, it's good to be put these vehicles in place.

Don't get me wrong.

We want to make sure that the insurance back stops are there.

But that's not necessarily the biggest thing,

keeping things from flowing right now.

You would say it's safety.

Can you describe in more detail what we have to do

to get those safety concerns taken care of?

Sure.

I mean, look, let's just look at the mechanism

that's in place to take care of things like this.

This is a well-trodden path.

Unfortunately, I suppose, is the right phrase to use there

because there is a mechanism within the insurance industry

that assists ship owners, even aviation business,

to make sure that we can provide cover

in periods of extreme stress like this.

And that's the whole purpose of,

perhaps, what the war insurance market provides.

Now, in terms of what do we need to see?

I think there would be a more confidence,

more ships trading through the region,

with some armed support.

Now, that's difficult at the moment.

We've got, obviously, a lot of the ships

that are there, the military ships that are there

are involved in other things.

And I think, once that starts to settle down,

and we can start to see some maybe multinational flotillas

to support ships trading through that area,

then things are going to start to move.

So you would like to see multinational flotillas

to help ships get through that region safely.

Right now, how expensive is insurance?

And, you know, how might that change

if all of a sudden we have multinational flotillas

on the scene and able to kind of play a role

in assuaging those concerns?

Sure. So look, I mean, before things,

before things kicked off 10 days ago,

we were looking at rates for ships trading through that area

of between 0.25 and 0.5%.

And that's on the value of the ship.

So let's take an example, a 10-year-old VLCC,

that's a very large crude carrier,

might be worth $100 million.

So that's somewhere between $4 million and $500,000.

And that is just for the additional premium

to go into that area.

Now, if you are going to go west of the Straits of Hormuz,

those rates have moved up to, let's say, 3%.

Maybe a fraction more from today,

because so far we've had around about 21 ships

since things started last Saturday.

So that's a, I mean, nothing major,

apart from, unfortunately, the tug that was hit,

but there has been damage.

So I think people will look at that and say,

OK, this is becoming an area of stress.

And so we need to appropriately price that.

So if that, if we got the flotillas in place,

and I think a multinational force would be appropriate,

I'd certainly like to see that 3% come down to

something approaching, sort of 50% of that

over the course of a period of time.

When it was, when we could show that that was a safe passage.

That's Marcus.

Thanks for giving us that granularity.

We really appreciate it.

And explaining what we need for this to move forward.

Thanks for your time.

Pleasure.

That's Marcus Baker with Marsh.

All right, let's get now to Kate Rooney,

where they see NBC news update.

Hi there, Brian, the American military probe

into a deadly missile attack on Iranian,

on an Iranian elementary school has reportedly determined

that the US was at fault.

That is according to the New York Times,

which reports investigators have determined the bombing

was a result of a targeting mistake

because US forces were using old data to conduct strikes

on an adjacent Iranian military base, Iranian officials,

now say at least 175 people were killed,

most of them children.

And after defending the filibuster for years,

GOP Senator John Cornex reversed his stance today,

writing in an op-ed that the SAVE America Act,

which mandates proof of citizenship for voter registration

and photo ID, to cast a ballot is more important

than the filibuster.

President Trump has repeatedly called

for the end of the tactic Cornex faces Ken Paxton

in a runoff election.

President Trump has yet to endorse a candidate.

And finally, the Defense Department has reportedly banned

press photographers from briefings on the Iran War,

the Washington Post-Down reports,

that Secretary Hegseth staff made the decision

after they deemed some of the photos taken of him

at the podium as quote, unflattering guys.

Back over to you.

That's every photograph of me.

Thank you very much.

Amen.

And to me, not to...

Uh-huh, uh-huh.

Take a look at this, Miss.

I'm a hundred and seven years old.

I look pretty good.

Take a look at this mystery chart.

This stock soaring 330% in the last year.

And if you listen to your next guest,

what he came on our air in late August,

you would have more than doubled your money in that stock.

Huh.

Well, join us on the other side of the break with more picks.

Welcome back.

It is now Power Check Time.

J. Peters is here on set with us.

He's portfolio manager at New Edge Wealth.

And, first of all, it's great to see you.

Yeah, thanks, Robert Kelly.

I don't know if you like or hate these kind of markets,

but it certainly creates some entry points, shall we say.

Some tactical opportunities

and you brought us some defensive, growthy names.

Yeah.

Is that right?

Okay, welcome.

Thanks.

And, you know, the saying is, defense wins championships.

And, you know, I think there is merit in this.

And, you know, I think there is merit in this.

And, you know, I think there is merit

to having some leads in your portfolio.

You know, what we've seen lately I think is, you know,

reminder that volatility is here with us in this market.

Yeah.

You know, these, their companies are typically more economically resilient,

more interest rate resilient.

They offer more durable earnings growth.

Well, let's talk about the first one, which is AutoZone.

And, you know, so there, there's like auto,

is AutoZone the one that's brought back like 80% of the flow or whatever.

Okay.

So why do you like this one?

Yeah, so countercyclical industry for sure.

Not a name you think of when you think of a growth of your company,

but this is a company with a lot of attractive characteristics.

You know, ultimately we all need to get to work at the end of the day.

People opt to repair, over replace their vehicles,

when they do see environments of sluggish economic activity

or pricing pressure.

AutoZone is a company trading at roughly 23 times earnings today,

mid single digit, same store sales growth, consistent double digit earnings growth.

You know, I think if you say multiple is in video, you know,

which would you rather?

Yeah, it's a good question.

I think a company that buys back, as you said,

80% of the stock since inception, 50% of the stock over the last 10 years

is certainly interesting for long term investors.

And just, you know, looking big picture,

the average age of the cars on the road is about 13 years today.

That's a record high, record high miles driven.

I don't know if you guys have been driving around New York City,

but I think as we enter the spring summer driving season,

there's going to be a lot more maintenance for vehicles given some of the conditions.

You've seen the potholes then.

I had a pothole that required a ladder to get out of it the other day.

Anyway, our mystery chart, which has just soared last August,

you recommended ARGAN, ARGA and Virginia based company.

They're the ones that do, I hate to say this, I'm not defending them,

the boring work of actually building some of these natural gas facilities

that we talk so much.

Do you still like it though?

It's had a heck of a run.

That's correct.

It has had a heck of a run.

It's incredibly well positioned to benefit from the build out

of power generation facilities in this country.

I think a lot of that theme has been priced in here recently.

I think you have to have a little bit more modest expectations

for earnings growth and performance.

But I think it's a name you add to your watch list on how many pullbacks.

It's certainly a company that's known for bringing on these facilities quickly

and efficiently.

Ultimately, a company we still like,

but certainly been a great performer in our portfolio.

Totally different name here.

Brookfield, the kind of data center, Brookfield infrastructure.

I worry about data center plays sometimes,

because broadly speaking, it seems genius.

But then you get into the nitty-gritty sometimes like,

what's the credit structure?

What are the cash flows?

What if they move on to the different data center with the latest and greatest?

What's the valuation?

All of these things.

Yeah.

And I think those are valid points, Kelly.

This is a company, kind of synonymous with global infrastructure assets.

It's not just data centers, but transportation, pipelines, electrification plays.

So it is more of a steady grower for sure.

4% dividend yield solid balance sheet, reasonable valuation relative to utilities peers.

I do think that the AI infrastructure theme is interesting,

this partnership with Blue Energy, which they've talked about,

bringing fuel sales to power data centers, certainly an interesting angle.

But you know, I think at the end of the day,

a durable grower known for kind of premium assets,

high returns on capital and offering a healthy dividend yield as well.

All right, something less scary, I guess, in the private space right now.

Jay, thanks so much.

Good to see you again.

Like Jay Peters with New Edge Wealth coming up.

The name's moving most on our screens today.

We'll bring them to you right after this.

Welcome back.

We have some news on open AI, Kate Rooney.

What's happening?

Hey, Kelly.

So Sam Alvin CEO of OpenAI just got off stage at a BlackRock infrastructure summit

in Washington, DC.

A couple of headlines from the OpenAI CEO talking a lot about energy demand.

The data center build out and semiconductors starting on a custom ship

that OpenAI had been reportedly building.

This is inference only, Altman, confirming that this is on track to launch.

At the end of this year, he says it's going well.

It's a specialized chip and will be the cheapest and most efficient on the market.

It is for inference only, not training, does say given the constraints,

energy and being efficient basically is going to be important in the future.

They're designing their chip around that.

Speaking of the energy demand and build out, he talked about current power capabilities

and says he is, quote, hoping for a miracle in terms of figuring out how we can get more efficient per watt,

talked about some of the existing resources, but again, hoping for a miracle

that we can get more energy capacity, then says on AI in general,

says that he's a huge believer governments should not interfere too much.

Says it's an exceptional time society has a legitimate interest.

Says it shouldn't be up to companies or the government to impose any particular will on how

AI will be used guys. That's the latest from Altman back over to you.

So this is the guy, I want to be clear.

This is the guy that is going around saying we need X number of gigawatts to power the AI future.

It's been kind of handing out gigawatts like people give out cars on talk shows.

And yet, he's hoping for a miracle.

Okay, Kate Rooney, we got, we got, we got, yeah, sorry, I got to go.

I shouldn't have asked that. Okay, thank you. We're back after this.

Add former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz to the growing list of billionaires flocking to Florida.

He announced on LinkedIn that he and his wife Sherry have moved to Miami

and that their family office will also be moving to Florida.

Their foundation will remain based in Seattle.

The Wall Street Journal reporting earlier that Schultz recently purchased a $44 million

penthouse Brian in Surfside, Florida.

Yeah, I mean, listen, a new income, first ever income tax for the state of Washington, by the way,

but you later got on higher property taxes, the highest, I think sales tax in America,

gasoline and all our viewers in Seattle area, they're paying what, five bucks.

It's amazing.

Yeah, it's a, it's a beautiful part of the world, but they're just going to keep layering on higher costs.

And what about our neck of the woods, where they're talking about austerity for the budget

and cuts, you know, the schools that can't meet their health payments.

And so, you know, in property taxes are already.

Where's the money going?

That's it. We should launch CNDC too.

Where's the money going?

No, seriously, where's the money going?

I totally agree.

I totally agree.

Thanks for watching everybody.

Closing bell starts right now.

This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab.

Join host Keith Lansford for this information-packed daily market preview delivered in 10 minutes or less,

including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions and key results and statistics

that may impact your trading.

Download the latest episode and subscribe at Schwab.com slash Market Update Podcast,

or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.