Buck Brief - Trump Just Raised the Stakes With Iran

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1:06The best feel operative I've ever had. You were born for it. May one embassy one down. We go 25 million in the wall. Where hotel to run? This is bad. Like run for the hills. Bad. Do it now. I don't have the money. I've got some more valuable. These are number two truth. You'll make it free the VIX in theaters September 11th. This is Ashley. I can't eat from the almost famous podcast. You ever notice you and your spouse keep saying we need to get away. But you never actually plan anything. That was us until we did something fun and spontaneous. We went to resort pass dot com. There are hundreds of hotel resorts, pools and spots and private beaches that you can enjoy. You can spend the day at a luxury resort, pool, spa, massage without booking an overnight stay. And listen, I may have only been like 15 minutes from home,

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3:07Okay, let's talk about Iran and what's been going on last 36 hours. I don't mean what Iranian state TV wants you to think happened. The United States hit the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Again, air defenses radar, mind laying communications maritime targets along the southern coast and the straight of hormones. Send comps of the strikes began around noon Eastern on Tuesday and lasted more than six hours. President Trump has called them large and powerful. He said there were retaliation for two things. Iran trying to see the straight of hormones with mines and a missile shot at a US base in Jordan. Iran fired back missiles toward Jordan drones toward Bafrain and Kuwait. They claimed they killed a large number of American forces in Jordan. US says there were no US casualties. So that gap between claim and reality is not new. It is the entire information war. This is month seven of a conflict. Trump once suggested would be measured in weeks. A June ceasefire did not hold. We're now in what the White House is calling a tanker for tanker phase. You hit our shipping. We hit yours. You rebuild the radar.

4:08We already destroyed. We wait until it's almost finished and we knock it down again. Trump said that out loud. They were reconstructing radar because they couldn't see the ships. We let them get close. Then we took it out. That is not random bombing. That is a campaign designed to keep Iran blind in the one waterway that still matters to the global energy market. The straight of hormones is a 21 mile wide choke point. A huge share of the world seaborn oil still has to squeeze through it. When Iran minds it or even credibly threatens to mine it, insurance rates spike skippers delay and the price at the pump in Ohio and Florida moves. That is why this is not some distant regional squabble. It is a direct hit on American household budgets two months before midterm election. Now the part the networks have spent the most time on. Of course, the Iranian official saying a US munition or shrapnel hit a house where a wedding was taking place in Hormazgan province. They say four or five people were killed, including a child. Dozens wounded. Send Com says the targets were IRGC military and communication sites.

5:09They have not confirmed a civilian strike. They've also not issued the kind of detailed battle damage assessment that would shut the story down. Here's how you should think about it. First, Iran has a long documented record of placing military assets next to civilians and then filming the aftermath. That's not a conspiracy theory that is long standing practice for the Iranians. Hezbollah does it, Hamas does it, IRGC does it. They understand Western media better than most Western governments do. Second, even if a civilian site was hit, that does not automatically make the strike illegitimate under the law of armed conflict. Proportionality and distinction are the tests. You do not get a free pass because the regime parked a radar or a command node near a family event. You also do not get to shrug if the United States actually hits the wrong building. Both things can be true at once and serious people can distinguish between them. Third, the regime will use the image images regardless. They always do. Their goal is, of course, not accuracy. The goal is to make the next American president or this one hesitate. Good luck with Trump on that.

6:11They want to demand the coordinates, though. They want this to be judged. They want the people to turn against it. Now, Trump has said for two decades they have been dealing with this. Iran's air and maritime surveillance on the Gulf have been degraded in waves since the spring because he stepped up every time they try to reconstitute new radar, new launchers, new mine layers, the United States has a choice. Let them finish or hit them while the concrete is still wet. It even while the concrete is still wet, it's cheaper and blood and treasure than fighting a reconstituted four or six months from now. That is the logic of a limited campaign that is trying to avoid becoming a forever war quote unquote and an occupation. Limited campaigns, though, do have some limitations. The other side gets a vote in Iran. So far has been voting to keep shooting, keep mining, keep claiming civilian massacres and wait for American patients or American politics to crack. By the way, Putin is not a spectator on this. He has publicly pledged support for Iran to continue and to help in the war against the United States. Russia does not need Iran to win, but Russia just wants the United States tied down oil prices elevated and the Republican coalition arguing with

7:14itself about whether this is a forever war or necessary force. And that argument is already happening. You can hear it on the right. You should take it seriously instead of pretending it doesn't exist. Now gas prices are not where the White House wants them to be currently. That's obvious. Trump met oil and gas executives at the White House this week for that reason. The midterms are in nine weeks. A six month war that was supposed to be short is now a line item in every focus group. Democrats are going to run with all of this. Some Republicans will run the why are we still their line? Of course, and the administration's answer has to be clearer than we hit them hard. The clear answer is this. Iran is the world leading state sponsor of terror. It has spent a generation building a ring of proxies from Lebanon to Yemen to Iraq. It has repeatedly tried to close or threaten the straight. It tried again this week. A country that cannot see the ships in Hormuz is a country that cannot easily close Hormuz. That is a that is a strategic fact. If the goal is to keep the waterway open to grade the IRGC's ability to reconstitute and avoid a ground war, then the strikes this week are coherent. If the goal has quietly become regime collapse, we should be told that.

8:17Americans can handle an honest theory of the case. They cannot handle another decade of just a few more weeks. Watch three rings the next 72 hours. One does Iran try another run or shot at the US or a partner base. If they do, Trump has written the script much harder, higher level targets will be hit. Two, what does the oil market actually do? Red or his cheap tanker rates and the front month contract are not. Three, does the administration release enough targeting data to bury the wedding narrative or do they leave a vacuum that Tehran and its media cutouts will fill? I spent years looking at this region from the other side of the table and the IRGC is not subtle. They are patient. They are vicious and they're very good at propaganda. Does not mean you withhold fire against them. It means you fire, you document and you do not let them write the first draft of the history. The straight is still open. The radars they were rebuilding are not. That is the story tonight. Everything else is noise. So what will the effects of this be on the midterms? We'll have to continue to look closely at that as we get near.

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11:24You are born for it. In the 81, the embassy went down. We go 25 million in the wall. Where? Hotel, Taron. This is bad. Like run for the hills, man. Do it now. I don't have the money. I've got some more valuable. These are number two. Truth. Don't make it free. The VIX in theaters September 11th. This is Ashley Akinetti from the almost-amous podcast. You ever notice you and your spouse keep saying, we need to get away, but you never actually plan anything. That was us until we did something fun and spontaneous. We went to resortpass.com. There are hundreds of hotel resorts, pools and spots and private beaches that you can enjoy. You can spend the day at a luxury resort, pool, spa, massage without booking an overnight stay. Listen, I may have only been 15 minutes from home, but it felt like it was a whole different

12:24world. I'm thinking this is exactly what I needed. Just go to resortpass.com, choose your resort, choose your day, luxury resort day passes start at just $25. Once you post your daycation, people are going to ask where you are. Go to resortpass.com, slash almost famous and use the promo code almost famous to get $20 off when you spend $100. That's code almost famous at resortpass.com slash almost famous. Do you know Pure Talk's favorite holiday, President's Day? Because they believe wireless service should only cost you a couple of presidents, a Jackson and a Lincoln to be exact. For just $25 a month, Pure Talk gives you unlimited talk, text and plenty of data so enjoy superior 5G coverage without the inflated price.

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