Business Rundown: The Global Energy Supply Shock From The Strait of Hormuz

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I'm Taylor Riggs.

This is The Fox Business Rundown.

Monday, March 16th, 2026.

President Trump is warning that a very bad future is ahead if NATO countries do not help

secure the straight of fore moves.

Why do we have to fight this battle that's been going on for 47 years?

The Iranian regime has had their leverage over the entire global economy because of

this geography and oil resources.

There is no eye in team as the flow of oil through the straight of fore moves remains

a key priority for President Trump and he is now urging allies and other nations that

rely on oil traveling through the waterway to help secure it.

Join military operations between the U.S. and Israel continue for more than two weeks

now in Iran as Tehran threatens full closure of the straight, an essential route for 20 percent

of the world's oil.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright says Americans will feel the impact of climbing gas prices

for a few more weeks.

What impact could a few weeks of elevated energy prices have on the broader economy?

If other countries step in to help assure safety in the straight, could that relieve pressure

at the pump here at home?

I think what matters most is duration.

How long does this last?

Blue Bassanese is a Fox News contributor and executive vice president for market strategy

at the Prairie Operating Company.

I mean, if we think of the global economy in the terms of a patient that's entered the

ER, you're triaging what matters most and it's just this oil passing through the straight

matters so much to the global economy, even if the U.S. is energy independent, it impacts

market prices.

So, the longer this last, the more it hurts both economies that are very reliant on the

oil coming out of there.

I mean, the U.S. is only two and a half percent of exports going through the straight come

to the U.S.

But you have to remember that the market price is just so the rule of thumb is generally

every $10 of barrel increase in oil leads to a $25 increase in the price of gasoline over

the next two months.

So we've had call it, you know, we were $70, $80 and we've got a $30, $40 if we hang

around a hundred, you're looking at possibly, you know, $0.75 to a dollar more on the price

of gasoline.

That's going to cause some drag to the economy for a period of time.

It does help that the U.S. economy has gotten more fuel efficient that we are less reliant

on energy over time.

But again, this is all, you can't focus on anything else, I mean, all these other measures

that are being announced, you know, releasing from the strategic reserve, OPEC boosting,

you know, their output, Saudi Arabia redirecting through pipeline, it doesn't matter, it's

pain management.

They're really just trying to put as much supply as they can to get this patient to the

point where they're healing and that's where we just get transportation going through

the straight or remove again.

So it's a critical necessity, a calculated risk by the administration to say, we know

it's going to cause pain in the short term, but let's make sure it's only in the short

term.

When do we need NATO countries to step up to help with military escorts or to help, you

know, oil tankers through that straight?

Do we need assurance that military operations have been completed or can they step up before

that?

How about yesterday?

Like, what are you doing?

Why do we have to fight this battle that's been going on for 47 years?

I mean, the Iranian regime has had their leverage over the entire global economy because

of just geography and oil resources.

So I think you need some assurances that the whatever is remaining, the remnants of military

offensive power for Iran is diminished to just negligible.

And then other countries will come in and say, like, listen, we'll cooperate in escorts

and restore order to this.

Again, Iranians don't act rationally, right?

I mean, this is, you're in a time of war, you're playing games, this is strategy.

They know that that's their last leverage point.

So, you know, if you look, they're relying on it maybe for a million barrels of data exports

for generating revenue, most of their oil that they produce is used internally.

So again, the question is, how long can they last and hold off and can, you know, scare

the rest of the world out of going through the straight?

So we're seeing a little bit of traffic, but nowhere near what we need.

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I got a question yesterday.

I want to tell you how I answered it and then sort of let me know if you agree

or if there's some other things that I'm missing.

If we are energy independent,

can't we just produce here and then keep our oil prices down here?

My response to that is there is light sweet.

There's heavy sour.

Some of our refineries can handle certain things here,

but we also need to import things like diesel from Saudi Arabia

or from that region.

And so it's not just produce more,

keep it internally and keep lower prices here at the pump.

It's this global commodity that does actually rely on exports

and imports, even though we save our energy independent.

We do need some of those items from that region as well.

It's too interconnected and I would tell you that if we were able

to keep prices artificially low here,

it would create a tremendous arbitrage opportunity

and you know all the Brainiacs on Wall Street would find a way.

If oil stayed at 50 or 60 bucks a barrel for U.S. production,

they'd find a way to get that on tankers, hold it, store it,

and then trade the arbitrage for $90 or $100 barrel globally.

So it's a nice thought.

You wish that it's like, hey, we have the supplies in the pantry.

Can't we just use what's in the pantry at whatever price

we purchase it at?

Unfortunately, just, you know, the producers are going to say,

look, the global prices here.

We want to generate additional capital.

If you look at that right now,

I mean, it's anticipated that U.S. oil and gas producers

will generate an extra $67 billion worth of revenue

because of the increase in oil prices.

But I would say this, don't think and don't fall for the lie

that they're just, you know, fat cats that are going to put it

in their own pockets.

Most of the major producers are paying out dividends.

They're in a very capital-disciplined mode.

So they're not using that extra profits necessarily

to expand exploration, to pay themselves more.

They're usually just funneling it down to pay down debt

and then pay out in the form of higher dividends for investors.

So any Americans that are fortunate enough

to own oil and gas companies will probably be in store

for higher dividends, higher stock prices.

I mean, it's the best performing sector this year.

By far, before the war ever broke out.

So this is a momentum trade that I don't think ends anytime

soon for that sector.

What does this mean for China as well?

We're hearing that Scott Besson's holding talks with China

and they could be in Paris today.

The Trump G summit is that on, is that off?

No one knows.

We don't want China to get involved,

but China gets a lot of their oil from Iran and Russia.

Is this a sticking point in our ongoing trade relations

with China?

Or does this not matter?

Because China really hasn't been a reliable training partner

to begin with.

Yeah, I wish I could tell you that China was transparent.

So we had a real gauge on it, but here's what I tell you.

Nothing matters about China right now

until we get through the war in Iran

until you resume oil flowing.

China needs it, which is why they've been noticeably quiet.

I think 38% of the oil that flows through the straight

goes to China.

I think it's upwards of 60, 70% to Asian countries.

So China knows that this needs to end first.

I said it's last week on air.

It was a bit controversial with Gordon Chang and Varney.

It was that, like, I don't think anyone cares

about the China Trump summit right now

because we all know that you keep coming back to the table, right?

This can't just keep getting kicked down the road.

So for investors, I think it's already,

a resolution's already priced into the markets.

What's going on right now, though, is not,

like the resolution in Iran is not.

So we're trying to figure that out first and foremost.

So no one's focusing on, I hate to say it.

It's weird.

If you asked us three months ago, five months ago,

would it matter that Bessent was going to meet in Paris?

Would it matter that Trump and she were going to have a meeting?

Absolutely.

It was the only thing we'd focus on.

And now it's kind of like, yeah, it's the after story, which...

Some things I read and I'm curious your thoughts.

China showed their strongest card,

which was the rear earth minerals.

Yeah.

And once they've showed that card,

and we've realized that that's a choke point

we're trying to do more here in the US,

what other cards do they have?

Yeah, it's tough, right?

I mean, they tried to show their production and exports

and, okay, we'll find supplies elsewhere.

You can't get rid and offload all those products to other countries.

They've tried, they've tried to offload the Latin American countries,

other Asian countries, it just doesn't work.

The math doesn't add up.

So they have to play ball to a certain degree.

But again, it's China strategy, right?

I mean, they think in 5, 10 and 100 year plans,

I would say this is the first presidency

that has actually started thinking like the Chinese,

instead of in midterms and presidential elections.

Hey, what do we think 10 years from now?

25 years from now.

250 years from now for the US.

It's refreshing.

You might not agree with his approach in all the in areas,

but you cannot disagree with the fact that he is long term minded

and doing the things that require to secure energy independence,

national security, global security.

So yeah, I think this is a necessary war for a lot of reasons.

And even though he said he didn't want to go into more wars,

this one is too critical.

I want to pivot a little bit, talk about AI, Meta,

and the owner of Facebook, Instagram,

has there have been some reports out there

that they could lay off as much as 20% of their workforce.

So they have 79,000 employees on average right now.

And this would be the largest layoff since about 2022,

when they were really in this big cost-cutting strategy

and laid off a significant portion of their workforce.

Now, the headlines say, oh my gosh,

the bots are coming for our jobs.

This is the SaaS apocalypse.

This is the end of software coders

that this could be to fund and expand their AI infrastructure build out.

How do you fund data centers and keep 79,000 people on the payroll?

Something's got to give.

Do you buy these headlines?

I don't buy the headlines.

I would tell you that Jack Dorsey and Mark Zuckerberg

must, their favorite hit on Spotify,

must be Britney Spears Oops, I did it again,

because I'm telling you, Jack Dorsey,

this is AI, whitewashing, like AI washing of the jobs.

Jack Dorsey did it at Twitter.

He over-hired and then Elon had to come in

and cut that workforce by 80%.

He did it again at block.

And we've seen this happen twice with Zuckerberg.

So you brought it up.

I mean, 2019, I think they topped out at like 44,000 employees

by the end of 2022.

You're at 86,000 and then they cut back.

Those 23 cuts were 22% of the workforce.

So you know, both Dorsey and Zuckerberg

have a tendency to over-hire and then they got a trim back.

And so I think this is natural.

I don't think it has anything to do with AI.

It's just really convenient.

There's too many data points.

They're like enumerate here,

but one that hit today that I thought was really interesting

is the survey of 1,000 managers in HR and stuff

and they said that 59% of the time,

they're saying that it was because of AI

that they're letting people off.

But it was really only 9% that it was actually to it.

So they said, it just sells well.

It's a convenient excuse.

It's believable, but it's not reality, I believe.

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So this is also another fun story

in the few minutes that we have left.

It's called rent a human.

So it's a startup that allows AI agents to rent humans

to perform tasks that they cannot physically perform

themselves.

So they say, AI can't touch grass.

You can get paid when agents need someone

in the real world.

This is wild because it's the whole backward idea.

It's backwards and it makes me think like

how big of the market is this for this services?

It's like, remember back, I don't know, five, six years ago

there was like professional snugglers

that you could hire to just snuggle with you

and after COVID and everyone had the loneliness.

I think this, if I read through the humor of it, right?

I think it presents a really key takeaway.

Everyone's afraid that AI is going to replace humanity.

The likes of Stephen Hawkins saying like, it's it,

it's going to obliterate us, the doom and gloomers.

And here's the reality, very simple things

that humans can do, AI cannot and vice versa.

So there's always going to be this coexistence.

I think that's what the market's trying to figure out.

How much do we coexist?

What job has become more automated,

but still reliant on humans?

There's a great piece out today, some new studies as well,

showing that I think it was from Alibaba, in fact,

showing that they tried to automate coding.

And what they found is in a snapshot in time,

AI can do it really well.

But if you say like, hey, take over the responsibility

for coding this application.

Eight months later, 75% of those projects failed.

They self-destructed because the AI couldn't maintain.

So their takeaway is, hey, we have to have humans involved

still.

You can't get rid of all the coders

because they actually know how to keep a system going

and operating.

AI can't be self-sufficient.

So I think there's going to be this weird coexistence.

If they're not agree, there's going to be this weird coexistence.

There's going to be some people that have significant others

that are AI agents.

And I don't, I mean, there's plenty of weird things in this world,

but I would tell you, I think the takeaway is,

if you're not using AI in your job, you're going to be bifurcated.

You're going to be left behind.

You have to figure out how to use AI,

or you're going to be that, you know,

the ledites of this generation that just failed to adapt.

And then the consequences are, you know,

left to you, you're responsible for this.

You've been warned.

Well, I can confirm that Lou is not a bot.

He is not an AI agent.

He is live here with me in person.

Lou, this was a pleasure.

Thank you.

Oh, it was a pleasure.

Thanks, sir.