CFT 98 - Pitchers That Let Us Down

0:00Every game day you show up for your team. Now it's your time. We go, we go, we go, we go. Ask your prescriber about Wigovie, some Maglatide Injection 2.4 milligrams, a GLP 1. Call 1-8-3-3-4 Wigovie or visit Wigovie.com to view the Medication Guide and to learn more about Wigovie. Why wait? We go, we go. Trick or treat. No one's home. I see you inside eating a Reese's. Why do people ignore trick or treaters? Do they not have treats or do they not want to share their Reese's? Perhaps it's true. Everything happens for a Reese's. This Friday. No one's coming for us. It's just you and me boy. 58 miles. Part of the beast is the must see adventure of the year. An incredible story of survival. I got you.

1:02One of the most extraordinary on-screen bond you'll ever see. Only the greatest dog ever walked the earth. Brad Pitt. I'll get you home. Part of the beast. Only in theaters this Friday. Ready PG-13. Maybe inappropriate for children under 13. Whether you're rushing out the door or eating on the way to work. Conquer Morning Chaos with Belvita. Baked with whole grains. Belvita breakfast biscuits go great with coffee. And are part of a balanced breakfast when paired with low fat dairy and fruit. And when you're looking for a post breakfast snack to tide you over till lunchtime, try Belvita energy snack bites. There are a good source of fiber and come in delicious flavors like banana dark chocolate with sunflower seeds. Find Belvita at your local store today. During Lowe's pro savings days, my Lowe's pro rewards members can save up to 20% when they buy more job-site materials. Save 20% when you buy 30 or more select bats and rolls of fiberglass insulation. 24 more cartons or pales of joint compound

2:03tape and bead. Or when you spend $200 or more on free and painting and job site essentials, members give more at Lowe's. Valetue 925, while supplies last. Selection bears by location, program subject to terms of conditions. Sealows dot com slash terms with details subject to change. What is happening? Welcome to another episode of the craft. My name is Nick Pollock. And this week, well, Eno Sarah's is here. I can't believe it. Guys, round of applause. Eno Sarah's good to see you. Thanks for coming out on the show. And the crowd goes wild. Yeah, you're agent though, man. So hard to deal with. Oh my gosh. I don't know what relationship you guys have. Why you're still together, whatever, you know, they won't like that. I said that but man, bigger that out. Bigger than how. How may help you. Yeah. You know, I mean, I don't have any more of those M&Ms. Anyway, hi guys. We're going to talk about the pictures this year. We're not very good. The ones that really disappointed us. And it's very easy for us to reflect on the season and just say, well, this guy isn't good. So thus, we don't care anymore.

3:07We don't have any expectations of them being good. Sometimes what I've seen is that people just don't care if they were bad and like, no, we don't care. We're just going to ignore it and act like everything is fine. And I want to look at both sides of that today. But of course, as always, you know, we always have someone who's on our mind. Who is that guy today for you? Well, I think today we're going to maybe talk about some older struggling dudes. And here's one that he's not actually struggling right now, but he has been struggling for the better part of two years. Oh, Christian, Javier, come on down. Interesting. And, you know, I guess a couple of things are true this year that Javier has, you know, found his, some of his, you know, previously missing movement on his pitches, in particular, his four seamer had lost some ride. And if you look at it on a monthly basis,

4:11he'd kind of got some of that back over the courses here. He has added since the beginning of the year to inches of IVB. He's not quite back to, he at some point was near 20s. And he was definitely north of 19. But now he's back up to 18. And I would say about average vertical break for his career in the meantime, you know, velocity, of course, has taken a little bit of a hit. But again, over the course of this year, added back a little half tick. And, you know, worries right now, 93.5. Yeah, he's had a couple of years where he was better than that. But he's also had decent years where he wasn't that much better than 95. So, you know, in terms of V-Lo, in terms of movement, the fastball is back-ish, I would say. The thing that's intriguing for me is that he's added a cutter in the meantime. Yeah, that's he has. Say, and I, that's something that I

5:14knew you would love. It is a good bridge pitch because he's got basically a sweeper and a change up and then only one fastball in the past. I guess what's, you know, when I've watched Havier in the past, when he's good, he's dialed in with those three pitches. When he's bad, he's missing one or two of them. And then it's just walk city, basically, and, and, and homers. The cutter just gives him another chance at finding a pitch that'll work that day, I think. And, and then it's a bridge where he can throw the cutter and they might think it's the four seam and miss the cutter or they might think it's a sweeper, you know, and miss the cutter. So, there's like, you know, it's a, there's, I think it was been good for him. And ever since he has added the cutter, I mean, he's been a lot better, but there's this, there's this, there's a confounding factor. And the confounding balls, let me just have the numbers here. Since he added the cutter in late July, let's see what his numbers

6:19are. His numbers for that period of time. Well, it's a five year A, but it's a four XERA. It's a good strikeout rate. And then also within that time, there's been, you know, some, some ups and downs of the fastball. And in any case, since he came back to the rotation in late August, the numbers have been better. In three, one, nineteen, twenty-three percent K-ray in that time. Yeah. So, it's your Navier. I was, I was maybe looking at 2024. So, let me see here. Yeah, what's interesting, what's interesting about Navier is that the whiffs work there, like 16, 21, 13, 19, 14. But he had some games. It was like four strikeouts in one of them, right? It was five in another. It's like, okay, it's, it's right there. And then it just wasn't converting the putaway rates in games. We're just so bad. He couldn't just get strike three essentially, right? And that cutter is a very helpful addition. He does, you know, as you mentioned, didn't have that bridge pitch. Seeing the four seamers still have the flat, one point four height adjusted the A and the eighteen bird is good.

7:24And there's one last component. Yeah. So three A, three RAs since he has the cutter. And supported basically by a good strikeout rate, decent walk rate. It looks all supported. 394, XERA 395, 5, you know, it's like, it looks supported. The problem is royals, fillies, at New York, Sacramento on the road, angels, twice. I'm just, I'm just what I'm, where I am is, I like Kristen Havier. I think he's probably a top 75-ish guy. The, you know, but, you know, if I thought he was a true talent, three eight guy, he might be more like a top 55-ish guy or something, you know? But he, you know, the quality of opposition has made it, maybe look at you a little bit better. So I'm, I'm just struggling on like where exactly I'm going to end up with him. I've ended up with him in a lot of places down the stretch,

8:29because because of that schedule, I identify him. The schedule is a good one. And I guess going forward, he's got At Seattle. And he kind of has a two-step next week. I don't know if you want the second one, because it's at Sacramento, but, you know, that's a, to get a two-step on the final week. A whole bunch of things lined up to have him there. But, you know, thinking about where I'll put Kristen Havier next year. And if he would be a, you know, in a, a keeper in any situation, I kind of think probably not, although I'm in a 20-team keeper where I'm like, maybe? So, yeah. Just it's like, it's, it's, I'm excited, but I don't know how excited to get. You know, he still has terrible numbers on the full year. Right. You know, he's like, how excited you get about like a, like a six-week run or four-week run, you know? Yep. With, with Havier, it's always about execution, right? He has his four-seamer that if he's able to constantly pepper the top of the zone, he should get whips with that. He has a sweeper that we saw a 20% swing striker in the

9:35last game against the Royals. That's pretty cool for Kristen Havier. It's always been a, I don't know, almost like 55% to 60% striker. He's always wrestling with that. And then the change of kind of appeared later on, because remember initially it was just really four-seamer in a breaking ball. We didn't know if it was a curve or a sweeper at the time. And then the change of appeared later on when he was struggling. And now he's the cutter. We really haven't seen a full season of just Havier figuring it out. However, he's always been volatile. It was a lot of mean that walk pretty close. 2022, he was, you know, 254, URA, 150, and he was, that was, that was a good thing. No, well, right. But it was like, what was it? Eight to 9% walk right at the time. We were always feeling like even watching him pitch, it was just not, it's not a good, so it's a good guy, right? But not saying yet, that was an amazing season. I remember that comparing him to striker. I mean, it was actually very comparable as far as the four-seamer performance and the breaking ball performance at the time. And now it's, you know, totally different. Maybe is it? I don't know.

10:37What's up with striker? Anyway, we are, right? They both fall off. Yeah. But next year, I mean, I'm not, I'm not really interested to say that, okay, Havier is going to have his big turn and this big breakout. Like, he's really kind of been in this purgatory for a while. And I like the cutter, but I can't really wrap my head around the idea that Havier has an approach and sticks to it. Right? Because he's not, he's not benefiting from an overpowering heater like he used to. At least that's how it felt to batters. So without that, it's going to constantly be, you know, in this middle ground of, hey, yeah, maybe I'll go five innings this game three or two runs and like a couple of strikers. I'm like, no, it's very frustrating. So, yeah, even the cutter has gone from, he's used it zero times one time in the past. Yeah, no, understand. He's used it like 17% of the time so yeah. Yeah. So the guy I wanted to talk to you about now there are always every single week.

11:40There are these pictures they just go, I just go, oh, man, that's kind of interesting. Well, that's going on. Like, Daniel Lynch just went and he had to finally a good start. Oh my gosh, yet two of them. It's called the gold Lynch. That is the, the, that's the round of title that I'm going for with him. But the player that I really wanted to understand your take on, you know, is Ryan Johnson. What do we make of this guy? It's kind of funny. He actually increases velocity to like 94 95 on a sinker for the past like four or five starts. And I said, hey, look, okay, you know, this might be, I might be Ryan on this hill, right? And then last start, it was 92 93, but it was still great. And he's, he's always been like a bright-handed Brian Yarbro for me of cutters and sweepers and just kind of like, blah, there you go. Deal with this. And maybe a surprise or heater and whatnot. I could imagine Dennis Echolese calling it salad, you know,

12:41all that kind of thing. But it works kind of, I mean, the angels are letting him go longer than they used to. It's a bit of dancing with the disco, which is if you guys don't know, I think it does go funny. He used to really popularize throwing like 45 to 50% sliders in the zone and not really caring. Just saying, all right, you know what? I'm just going to do this and you have to deal with it. And so Tony disco dancing the disco. And that's pretty much what Ryan Johnson is doing. I think I really want to hear from you a little bit. Are you going to be starting Ryan Johnson? Just to give you guys an idea, he's going to be getting the twins next week on, actually, I'm sorry, around Sunday. And then he might end the season on Saturday at the Mariners. Are you down for both of those? I kind of feel like I am at this point. Yeah, those are two decent matchups for him. And in matchups play, I think, you know, I streamed him in a league for the last one where he gave me a quality start. And I was pretty excited. Yeah. So, you know, I had identified that pitch mix change

13:49that happened after his pitching codes was fired. And I thought, well, you know, they're leaning into his best pitches and, you know, getting rid of his other pitches. So, you know, that I do like that bit that there's like, hey, there's a reason that he's been different with different coaching. But when I look at the Arsenal as a whole, I get, I'm just like, is this really going to work? Because what he's ended up doing is he's throwing against opposite handed hitters. He's like really throwing the cutter and the and the service. It's just frisbees. He's like, not really throwing the fastball. Like the fastball is almost his fourth most thrown pitch. I mean, he's close to them. You know, he threw like, you know, this year, and this is the full year one, he's throwing as many sweepers as sinkers, you know, as fastballs basically to opposite handed hitters.

14:51So it's like, that's crazy. Because first of all, you're not even really supposed to throw sweepers and sinkers. So it's it's this weird, it's like this cutter curve thing, but it's kind of cutter sweeper splitter. But it's also, I mean, the cutter and the sweeper are just along the same plane. They are about nine miles per hour different. But I mean, there's a blame to even of them where the cutter is coming in 8990. And it's pretty much let's write on the zero of the x axis, maybe a little bit negative at times. So like maybe negative three or two. And it's up at like nine burt, right? Higher than the sinker at six to seven. But then you have the sweeper that comes over two. I mean, it's negative eight is the average of that one. And that's nine mile per hour difference. And it's just maybe that's it. Maybe it's just like a change up essentially. The sweeper is a change up for the for the cutter, right? It's so weird. And you have a splitter in there too. You threw 13 of them against Seattle. And it's a really strange like pitch plot. If you're looking at

15:51it because, you know, with a 20 degree arm angle, you actually expect everything to be further out. Like it's yes. Yes. This this looks like, yeah, I don't even know what this looks like. This looks like a guy who like might have a higher arm angle, but just cuts everything, you know, I don't know. This this is a really strange one. You think his sweeper would get, you know, at least 16s and stuff, you know, like he's throwing from the 20 degree arm angle. And he's just not getting the sweeper is not getting the sweep that you expect. But it is a different. Yeah, it's a change. It's almost like a straight change. Yeah. Right. It looks very much like the cutter. And it's 10 miles an hour slower. You know, it's junk. But it's salad. It's I mean, he's just he's throwing whatever out there. And you know, there's no dominance factor. Yeah. And the way another way of saying is like you look at the the splits on it, you know, in stuff plus he has no pitch that's above average to opposite handed

16:52hitters because he shouldn't necessarily because a 20 degree arm angle almost always has a problem with opposite handed hitters. No, interesting. And you know, and the and the flip side that is maybe more damage is that he only commands one of those pitches at an above average rate to the at opposite handers. Hitters. So it's like one of these guys all streamed. But, you know, I think I would have a heavier head of Johnson for next year. Oh, yeah. No, I agree with you on that one completely. I mean, this is a this is a weird moment for right Johnson rights. And I remember on a podcast, you mentioned weird. I think it was in the early season that weird is good. Yeah, weird is good. And then maybe the model is not capturing how weird this is because it's not a lot of yes. But I think the model does it with exactly what you're supposed to do because it's identifying this as weird. You know, if it's saying that it's cool, it's a good stuff plus pitch or whatever it is, then it's not really as weird, right? Then we can't identify that. So it's doing its job. Well, I think he'll be a good reliever. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know. I mean, it made like a long reliever,

17:59maybe like you want to like a more overpowering thing to come in, you know, and really. Yeah, but he could also be like a Tyler Tyler Rogers like Chad Brett. Like he's not all the way under, but he could be a change of pace. Get a grounder, you know, oh, yeah, sure. I see. I mean, does it get grounders? It doesn't. I mean, that doesn't mean that doesn't surprise me because he's throwing cutters and sweepers that are frisbee's and staying up as opposed to the splitter and the thinker not really being like the right. Right. Um, it's it's so strange to me. I remember earlier in the year, actually, Erickson, L. S.K. was like, hey, you know what? I think it might be time to consider Ryan Johnson. And when he said that, I believe it was on around July 20, 22nd or so because he saw, hey, Ryan Johnson's going at San Francisco. I think this is going to be cool. And that was the worst game of the year for Ryan Johnson. And Erickson, L. S.K. was just a victim of bad timing because really, there's two starts of 13 or runs in 7.2

18:59winnings for Ryan Johnson, the 25th and 31st of July. But actually, after that, from the 6th of August to the 15th of September, Ryan Johnson is a 203 ERA 108 whip and a 19% K rate. I mean, that percent miss. We were pitching coaches just made it even sloppier. You know, he's throwing 40% sinkers back then. Right. You know, and you know, since since Baltimore in early August, he has not thrown 10% sinkers in a single game. That's just that's bonkers. It really is just like Ari's three best pitch, you know, and slow, slow, slowest. I mean, right. The it was the velocity on the cutter. It's 89. So he's 89 cutter, 80 slider, 85 slider and very rarely 92. Mono and I was anger. It's so weird. But again, right? Like weird is good. You know, you see, am I as reverse slider without is actually located for strikes. It's good. I guess average, I think

20:02when he actually locates is good because again, weird. But we are going to talk about weird seasons. From the guys he didn't think would be weird. You got them because they would be normal. We'll talk about all of them after this break. Chevy is called the heartbeat of America for a reason with SUVs made to move with your rhythm. The versatile equinox tackles your entire day. The spacious traverse fits your crew and your whole weekend and tracks bring style with value you can count on all infused with tech that has your back. So your drive always hits the right cord. Let's do the heartbeat. Adventure awaits in a new Chevy. Right now get $500 bonus cash on select Chevy tracks models. Plus get 2.9% financing on all 2026 tracks models. Together, let's drive at your Southern California Chevy dealers. Bonus cash is available on 2026 Chevy tracks LT in active terms only 2.9% APR for 36 months.

21:05Monthly payment is $2904 for every 1000 new finance. Example them payment 11%. Must finance with GM financial. Some customers may not qualify. Not available with lease and some of their offers. Take your retail delivery by 93026. There are moments that define who you are and who you're becoming. And when those moments arrive, what you drive should rise to meet them. The Range Rover Sport commands attention from the very first glance. Every line. Every detail. Engineered for impact. Inside refinement takes over. With sculpted 22 way heated seating with available massage and a 13.1 inch touch screen that puts everything within easy reach. But the Range Rover Sport isn't just about luxury. It's about uncompromised performance too. Delivering a powerful agile drive that feels as confident as it looks. And with nearly endless ways to personalize from interior finishes to wheels to unique colors and accessories, your Range Rover Sport becomes unmistakably yours. For those who expect more from every moment, there's a vehicle designed to meet it. The Range Rover Sport. Exclusive offers

22:10available now. Explore further at Range Rover.com. Every game day you show up for your team. Now it's your time. Ask your prescriber about Wigovie, some Maglatide Injection 2.4 milligrams, a GLP1. Call 1-8334 Wigovie or visit Wigovie.com to view the Medication Guide and to learn more about Wigovie. Why wait? We go! We go! We go! Insurance isn't one size fits all. That's why drivers have enjoyed progressive's name your price tool for years now. With the name your price tool, you tell them what you want to pay, and they'll show you options that fit your budget. So whether you're picking out your first policy or just looking for something that works better for you and your family, they make it easy to see your options. Visit progressive.com, find a rate that works for you with the name your price tool, progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates, price and coverage match limited

23:13by state law. If you like YouTube, you'll love YouTube Premium. It's destroying, athlete, creator, and YouTube Maxor. YouTube Premium enhances how I use YouTube with awesome features like offline downloads so I can download my favorite training videos before I hit the gym. So no Wi-Fi doesn't turn leg day into loading day. Plus, I get ad free videos, background play, and so much more. YouTube Premium is like YouTube got some extra gains. Try YouTube Premium for two months free at youtube.com slash premium. Trial eligibility varies, terms apply, cancel anytime. All right folks, you ready for the meat and potatoes? Here we go! We have so many pictures, I think that are going to have weird perceptions of I just don't know how to rank them for the year ahead. And we have Kevin Gossman, we have Rampere Baldes and Fred Peralta. And I know that you on Raits and Barrels talk to DeGroven Rampere and believe also Trevor May about this topic already.

24:14He talked about Valdez and Peralta specifically. And I can't remember what the third one was, but we're not going to talk about Valdez and Peralta guys, okay? I'm just going to say right now, who knows who the Peralta? Good luck. And then Valdez just could not find his curveball and I do not want to trust that he's going to find his curveball again. And I'm just not going to talk to you. We honed in on the fact that like he's not a large, awesome guy. He hasn't really added to his arsenal in years. And he doesn't have great command. So as he gets worse stuff, which is inevitable every year, if he's not going to add pitches, then he's just going to put more pressure on the command. And he didn't start with great command. So there you go. We weren't that upbeat about his future. I mean, neither am I. But there is one that I just, okay, actually, I think there are two major names. I know I already mentioned Kevin Gossman. For me personally, I feel like he is Kevin Gossman. And it's been very frustrating if you've rostered him in your fantasy leagues. I would imagine that his time in Chicago would have gone smoother than it has. Recently, there have been a

25:19few more good than bad than it was at least in the middle of the year. But it's still Gossman. Right. He's still the splitter focus guys. Last one had my believe over 50% thrown splitters. So that means Gossman has a splitter feel again. Great. Awesome. You start him. But he's always really been this back and forth in my view, not really the smoothest of pitchers. But I would imagine you agree with that take on Gossman. Yeah, two pitch pitchers. He does have great command, though. Yes. So that's what's I think been propping him up. But he's scary. He's reaching. Yeah. He's reaching the first. He's like at a further point. He's like where the point where like, ooh, the stuff has declined. You've been relying on command. And now now that's not enough either. Exactly. So two pitchers that I am trying right now to figure out where I'm going to draft them. I think the number one confusing one that we're going to see all across the board here. Where this guy is going to go. You know, where are you going to rank Paul schemes?

26:28You know, I'd almost rather that we heard about some injury at this point. Right. You know, because at least we'd have some explanation for the dropping velocity. That's the thing, right? Because right now it's I'm not quite sure. Like I could do just normal analysis as if it's just any random name. It's a great. And this is what I would do. That was fix it. Yeah. But I can't say that with confidence because it does feel like there's something else going on that we're just not aware of. Right. But yeah. And I've been really focusing on the fact that he still has an excellent strikeout rate. But you know, if you actually look at the monthly splits, you know, there it's not like he's had an excellent strikeout rate all year. In fact, that strikeout rate has been falling. And in August and September, you know, I had been really relying on, you know, when I wrote in July, he started a 30% strikeout rate. Yep. For the year. And almost nobody who has a 30% strikeout rate has failed. I mean, he was,

27:29he I don't know if he's going to end the season with 30% strikeout rate. But if he had, he would have been the third or fourth worst pitcher out of like 85 guys with a 30% strikeout rate. And the only one that you can remember that was anywhere close to him is Dylan Seast the year that yeah, I was like, well, next year he'll be good. So you know, like I was like, if it's not this year, it'll be next year for schemes. But since then, August 23% strikeout rate, September 14% strikeout. Yeah. He hasn't eclipsed five strikeouts since August 5th. That's insane schemes. I think I might like, I do think like, you know, he's talked, he's started to talk a little bit about, you know, workload and WBC and, you know, just this idea of, you know, just, you know, this he hasn't he's missed. He's made every start. He hasn't, you know, he's kind of been on the higher end of the workload, guys. So I think I might just take the second half strikeout rate and walk rate, which is like sort of 25, 24% strikeout rate, the 10% walk rate. I want to give

28:33him actually more like a six to seven percent walk rate. Because that's what I think is true talent is. I think he has really great command. So if you give him, you know, 24% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate, you know, who is that like this year among qualified guys? So 24% is what you're saying? That's like, if Shota, Gossman, Brian Wu is right there. That's like a Brian Wu. Yeah, I mean, it should be all over the sort of conversation today. Rose quits. Yeah. But, yeah, I mean, those are generally, they're generally good pictures. He's in that 18, 19% that came out to be V-Range. It's not the top end pictures. So it might be somebody that you you put in the, you know, back into the top 20, that 25, you know, something like that. You're going to have some hype guys that that pass him that we don't, we just discussed about how that's not really a hype seven. So I don't think he's going to run into a bunch of young guys that just have out of worldly stuff that you want to have ahead of us. Sure. Yeah. There's not like

29:37six more chase burns is that we're just like, oh, I don't know. Six. What do we do with them? You know, man, I think like 25-ish, you know, I think that's where I might put them. I believe that there will be some sort of bounce back. And, you know, this is, this is basically the first time he's run into SinoTrouble. And if you look at the full season numbers, 370 or I 113 whip, still a useful player like, for example, 37th best starting pitcher. And I'm saying that this is, this is a bad year and there'll be some sort of bounce back from this. All right, fair enough. The argument against is that since the 26th of June, Paul Skins has not really delivered the promise of the pitcher that you drafted. I mean, a lot of things that you're talking about the full season. Yeah. I'm talking about the full season. He's like the next one. Z, right. But since the 26th, which is last 14 starts, Paul Skins has a 486 year A136 whip, 99% walk rate, 25% K-ray across 74 innings, which, I've just, oh gosh.

30:41It is still above average K-mysbb. I guess so. It is. It shouldn't be a four. That should be like a four one or something. Yeah. I mean, I'm not saying that's great. Yeah. That's still going to be 25 ranking. He's a four one, like two talent pitcher than he should be 75. They are with Christian have air or something. So I mean, there's so many arguments and so many ways I could do this. Like, for example, I like to think of, I like to think of things of things like Christopher Sanchez this year, right? What he really helped happen in his drop off is that the change of just, you couldn't throw for sure. It's all the sudden. And that's really been the impetus to this 122 whip that he has, which is insane. Considering you have like a 103 in the first two, three months or so, right? And I asked myself, okay, do I think that Christopher Sanchez is going to have this bad of a change up next year? And I say, no, then all right, then I'm in. You know, sometimes it's just that simple, right? Do you ask yourself a question of like, this is clearly the war and the thing that's holding them back, is that going to be fixed or not?

31:45And so I look at schemes and I say, all right, do I think that maybe his velocity returns? Do I think that he's going to adapt his pitch mix if it doesn't to fix that? Do I think that there is an injury involved? And I feel that the old three of those ticks need to be answered positively for me to say, okay, great, go on back in. Okay, let me just say I think the adjustment factor is high. This is a guy who had a splitter and a change. He's like added a pitch every year. But why hasn't he done? I think there's a mechanical thing going on. So I think it's it's hard for him to do it. He's gotten more cross-body this year. I think he's like, he's not naturally cross-body, but he has that kind of lower arm slot that kind of can lead to cross-body as well. Yes, he moved on the mound. And I think, well, because I think he's searching for the I say mechanics. So I think he's trying to make the adjustment. He just hasn't found it.

32:47I do think the adjustment adjustability factor is high. I think he's shown I have many multiple pitches. He's featured this year, the four-seeing more, the sinker more, the splitter more, the change of more. So he has tried different pitch mixes. I don't know, maybe that should kind of get some. He's tried everything and it's not worked. Well, I know I do see this in his different idea, like compilations. And now I get to really, let's dial in the mechanics that I want and you know, I don't have to pitch competitively while I'm doing this. Yeah, the offseason is a great reset button for both bad and good. And I think it's kind of forgotten about in that way a lot, where we can have one impression of a pitcher even through the end of the year, I'm like, this is where they're at. And then we see something at spring train. It's like way different all of a sudden and they are throwing way harder or they are not using this pitch and they're using that one in the first week or two this season, we just go, well, that's, we're all of that out from before. It does not matter anymore, right? So I find that convincing. I do think I will be watching

33:53for news. Like, yes, what you're saying, too. Like I'll be watching. I think I might be watching for news. Like a cut or might be interesting or like the early velocity, really interesting. But I am a little bit pessimistic because you laid out the three things. I think the thing I'm most pessimistic about is that I'm not sure he'll get the Velo back because. Right. I don't think so either. You don't just like sit 99 for a whole career. I mean, maybe we'll see what Miz does, but like, well, what's interesting? The beginning of the Velo drop off basically. We kind of always emit vision, rather. Skins being the best career because he wasn't as reliant on the velocity. At least that's what it looked like because he has the wire. Well, we have, but don't remember, we all talked about his shape not being maybe super ideal. Sure. So maybe he was really far. Yeah, that's a good point. I don't know where I'm going to rank Skins yet. We'll talk about it next week. Next week, guys, is my rankings episode preview as my plan. I know that I've had many

34:55plans that have just been pushed back massively like my roundups coming out late. I'm so terribly sorry. But my aim is to have a ranking for all of you on the Monday, the off season begins or at least the regular season ends just because I have so much I have to do across the next three months. I'll tell you guys more later. But Skins, yeah, I guess it does sound about rights around 25 or so. I feel that if I have them ranked at 25, I'm not going to get them. Right? Yeah, they'll be so excited. Maybe he's more excited. Right. But I think that they'll also be like, they'll also be a grouping of veterans that, you know, there's the ballast of what they've done in the past versus what they've done this year that'll end up at sort of 25 to 30. There was a time when Gossman was in that same place. Yeah, was this year, but like, you know, last year, the year before, I would have Gossman around 25, 30, and there'd be some people who are like, you're an idiot. He's like amazing, you know, and you're like,

35:56I think the end is coming, you know, and sometimes you're a year earlier, sometimes you have it right on. So with Skins, I think the overall youth and the overall body of work, you know, I think he'll be on the front end of the bad veterans grouping. Well, you know what, the youth is wasted on the young. Okay. So, um, we got not quite as young. Oh, man. Oh, no, branding young. I'm talking about, I got to go to branding young. This is a second way. Okay. My guys, my guys are a relative old man at this point, 29 years old pitching in probably the best pitching ballpark in baseball with a track record that, you know, made people yell at me for rankings that I put up this year saying he's one of the best pitchers in baseball and he should have a sign by now. He does not. His name is Logan Webb. And this year, he is among starting pitchers, 90 second. This is the guy I said at some point that had the highest floor along pitchers

37:00in baseball. And I think that to some extent, there's no such thing as floor because you can, you can go out there every day and provide value. There is such thing as floor for majorly teams because for the giants, he's had three wins and he's absolutely not the 90 second best starting pitchers. Get out of here. Three wins. No, no, no, no, look at my wins above replacement. Oh, thank you so much. He's been eight. He's eight and nine. He's put up 160 innings for a team that, you know, didn't have anybody else. Like, you know, it could have been even more disastrous in San Francisco this year if he hadn't gone out there, you know, and from a leadership basis and all those things. But, but from a fuzzy basis, he puts up a four three year array with 160 innings, that's a negative, you know, he's, he's so I can you doubt. I'm gonna, I'm gonna time out for a second here. Okay. And I know this isn't fair. It's not fair because you, you're gonna endure it, right? But I think it's fair for just our perception of a player because anytime I see just

38:06outlandishly bad days, I feel like this is just completely, you know, it's the, the loudest in the room that doesn't mean it's the opinion of everyone, right? So from across his last 19 games, there are two that are just so much worse than the others. It was three innings of seven or two runs and 13 base runners and three innings in cores. And then there was a, in PNC Park, which was really like the shocker to us, really hurt and stung on September 1st. There's nine or two innings. I'm 11 base runners. But what I've done is since May 29th, I have gone read of just those two games. So that's 17 games of a sample, which isn't, you know, again, it's not fair. I know. But across those 17, it's a 284 ERA 0.9 whip, 21% K-8, 5% walk rate and 100 innings. I know it's like, it's like, duh. He was good when he was good and when he, but it's too out of, it's, it's, yeah, you're leaving

39:10some bad starts in. I mean, you're leaving his six runs, right? Yeah, leaving some stuff in, and he's been really good. But I think in this case, there's a little bit of added context too that like, you know, this is the first year that Web has had in the injuries, you know, since the minor leagues and the injuries, while of course they could be concerning because you're saying, well, why would I want to take a 29 year old coming off bad season? It's also been injured and it won't give me because I don't think the old strikeout rates coming back, right? You know, so I get that, there's like, you people could say, well, then I don't want him. But the injuries have been to his knee. Like, I kind of feel like maybe I'm like a meniscus repair is coming or something. I don't, I've seen him wear a brace on his knee for the first time in my life in the clubhouse. And there's been some, some slight other things. I think these are the correctable things. The Velo drop wasn't that bad. He's never been a guy that built it on Velo, but, you know,

40:11I think this is, I think he can go back and at least be what he was in 2024 when he had 200 innings of a 347 with a 1, 2, 3 whip and a 21% strikeout rate. That year he was the 50 second best pitcher in fancy baseball. So there's no way I'm ranking him below 50. I think 50 is a good spot. You know, and I bet you even that year when you had a 347 ERA, you could have avoided a couple at Colorado's and gotten that thing even lower, you know. So I don't know that I think he's an automatic lock that you have to put him in the line of every day. And he's going to, you think he's going to be at top like two pitcher for you in your fancy leagues. I think he's slipped into that kind of three-fourish area for for fantasy because he's not going to give you the strikeouts. And you may only start him 90, 95% of the time going forward. You may want to avoid and try to avoid a couple of those six or seven run things. One of those was a course that could have been an

41:15easy avoid, you know. Right. So I think that there's this is a part of his career where he's still maybe has more fantasy value than some people think, but Giants fans will probably overdraft him. I don't think I can put, I don't put him close to that close to skiing. I think he's definitely another wrong or two down like 35, 40 maybe in there. Yeah, that sounds about right to me. It's I don't, the end of the day, I don't really feel like Web is much different. That's kind of what I why I really want to do this podcast because I feel there are a lot of these pictures that we go back and forth on over the years, you know, I remember raking Web in the first top 15 just being like, you know what? Like he's going to get strikeouts just based on volume innately and he should be good in that park and all that kind of stuff. And so it went, right. I don't necessarily think that he's different. I didn't believe he was a 2526% strike array. I see him really as this 21 22. That's fine because he should be still going deep into games. He should

42:16still have that change of it works really well down and the sinker that gets ground out and that the sweeper and the cutter like this works. It should be fine. Those who avoided Giants Pictures because of Lewis Arise. Good job. I don't know if that's why. Yeah, but I'm happy for you. But I guess I'm to I'm guess I'm making sure that I'm not going to push him too far down is what I'm trying to say because yeah, they're you're not going to want to drop Logan Web in all likelihood next time. I had him 12th and spring and I had him somewhere around there too. I mean, here's the thing too. I remember like the victory laps after Christopher Sanchez had his month of May, right. And it's just, you know, like things change rapidly, right. So and on the topic of Christopher Sanchez, before we hit the next break, do you feel that you're going to be putting him around schemes or do you feel like you can be putting him higher closer to Web? Where are you on Sanchez? Oh, I think there's a little bit of fatigue here. And, you know,

43:23I, I, they all are so excellent. The stuff numbers are so good. Sanchez will be a top 15 pitcher for me. Okay. I mean, I think I'm close to you there. I have like you don't have a like a big deal of drop like you do with schemes. You know, you just right. We do have a little bit now like we've used to receive more 94s than we want to in certain games. But it's still I still feel pretty good about Christopher Sanchez. There is one thing to consider that I haven't really considered yet. And I hate to even say it out loud. But let's say we do have a shortened season next year. Some of the guys that we would worry about later on in the year like, oh, health wise or stamina or anything like that gets eradicated a bit, right. So if you're saying, well, I don't want Christopher Sanchez, because I feel like he'll be fatigued again. Drew Rasmussen, top five. Oh my gosh, Drew Rasmussen. Oh, man, you know, he was someone that I had, I think I had like a 24. And everyone else was drafting like 48 or something like that. And I was like, okay, I don't need to do it here.

44:25I'll like push him further down, you know, then I regretted everything after him. Like, why do I? Why do I do this to myself? We're going to talk about some other guys who I actually thought you were about to say before you said Logan Web, if it all your boxes take the all of your description. And we'll talk about that guy more after his break. Shavi is called the heartbeat of America for a reason with SUVs made to move with your rhythm. The versatile equinox tackles your entire day. The spacious traverse fits your crew and your whole weekend and tracks bring style with value you can count on. All infused with tech that has your back. So your drive always hits the right cord. Adventure awaits in a new Chevy. Right now get $500 bonus cash on select Chevy Tracks models. Plus get 2.9% financing on all 2026 Tracks models. Together, let's drive at your Southern California Chevy dealers. Bonus cash is available on 2026 Chevy Tracks LT and active terms only.

45:302.9% APR for 36 months. Monthly payment is $2904 for every 1,000 new finance. Example down payment 11%. Plus finance with GM Financial. Some customers may not qualify. Not available with lease and some of their offers. Take your retail delivery by 93026. Do you have a work injury? DTLA Loggeroo, California's injury law firm. We can get you compensation for your injuries. Pay zero upfront. Text injury help to 40222. That's injury help to 40222 or visit us online at calldowntown.com. Message and data rates and usage may apply. This adds brought to you by free. Google S. Quire from.com.com. L.A. Loggeroo has been number 2.8247-6. 540 South Santa Fe, Los Angeles, California, and Oguarantees or predictions are made regarding the outcome or value of your case. This ad doesn't constitute an attorney client relationship. There are moments that define who you are and who you're becoming. And when those moments arrive, what you drive should rise to meet them. The Range Rover Sport commands attention from the very first glance. Every line. Every detail. Engineered for impact. Inside,

46:31refinement takes over. With sculpted 22-way heated seating with available massage and a 13.1-inch touchscreen that puts everything within easy reach. But the Range Rover Sport isn't just about luxury. It's about uncompromised performance too, delivering a powerful agile drive that feels as confident as it looks. And with nearly endless ways to personalize, from interior finishes to wheels to unique colors and accessories, your Range Rover Sport becomes unmistakably yours. For those who expect more from every moment, there's a vehicle designed to meet it. The Range Rover Sport exclusive offers available now. Explore further at Range Rover.com. Every game day you show up for your team. Now it's your time. Ask your prescriber about Wigovie, some Maglatide Injection 2.4 mg, a GLP1. Call 18334 Wigovie or

47:31visit Wigovie.com to view the Medication Guide and to learn more about Wigovie. Why wait? Insurance isn't one size fits all. That's my driver's have enjoyed progressive's name your price tool for years now. With the name your price tool, you tell them what you want to pay and they'll show you options that fit your budget. So whether you're picking out your first policy or just looking for something that works better for you and your family, they make it easy to see your options. Visit progressive.com, find a rate that works for you with the name your price tool, Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates. Price and coverage match limited by state law. All right, you know, who do you think I was thinking of when you were describing something that you thought was going to win a site young by now was pitching in the best park in baseball who is known as a floor guy. George Kirby. Yeah, that's right. You know, and I, you know, I've said a lot of things about George Kirby this year of just you, everything you

48:36said about skiing where he's been team-kering and all of that. I feel that George Kirby hasn't enough and there are some obvious things that I would want him to go ham on just because like, look, man, this is not clearly working like you'll have a game or so that's good and then it's game that's bad and you're not locked into anything. And correct me if I'm wrong, you know, but you've classified Kirby as one of those guys that like if he wants to do something, he'll do it. Right. Yeah, I mean, that's what I've seen in the past. I mean, he told me over the course of a couple seasons and different interviews that we've done that, you know, oh, I want my slider of, it was like, it was before when he had a more traditional slider versus a sweeper and he's like, I want to throw this thing 89 at the time he's throwing it like 87 and like, you know, two weeks later, he was throwing 89. Right. So, you know, I, and I, that's the vibe I get from other guys like when they when Logan Gilbert talks about George Kirby, he talks about him and Reverend, you know, sort of Posh Tone's kind of deal. But, you know, at the same time, and I think,

49:42you know, if you look over the body of George Kirby's career, he's, he's had a gyro slider and then he switched it to a sweeper. He's had the cutter that he kind of debuted. He, the splitter, he was one of the early adopters of the splitter in that organization. So, you know, he's had six or seven different pitch types. It's just that this year, he seems to have focused on a smaller body of pitches and become even more, when he's at his worst, he's predictable, I think. And he seems more predictable now than ever. And you're like, and you're not, you're not doing well. So you've got to be less predictable or I don't know, he's got to come with something. There's got to be a wrinkle in there. I mean, there, I've had two suggestions. One, I, I truly feel that everyone's laning his sweeper as a right-hander. And what I mean by that is he doesn't want anything inside. I think he's got a thicker inside. It doesn't get far enough inside. And, you know, if you use our 3D pitch plot tool inside of the pro dashboard, you'll see on any player, any pitcher dashboard

50:49you can see the hump actually out of the hand, which is kind of cool. You can very well see, like, this is what a sinker looks like. And there's a hump early. So what makes a sweeper work, and really a looking ball in general work, is throwing it into place where you don't know where it's necessarily going to land. And also, if there's any chance of this being, you're like misreading it. If you're seeing the hump and it's starting inside, knowing that he doesn't grow, a sinker inside, it's very easy just to follow that all the way through even if it lands away. You're just following it all the way down now. And you have to add that extra little bit of doubt that maybe this is a sinker coming back in. Maybe it's something else. Is there is a hump on the sweeper than like maybe you could throw curve balls, knuckle curves for strikes? Right. Just something else. And it looks like like you see these dotted sweepers that just would not get whiffs for George Kirby. So that's the first or he could pull the bride and will where he throws, he brings back the gyro slider. Right. He throws the gyro slider and sweep

51:52her off each other. Yeah. I would love that. The second thing is I noticed that George Kirby is he does throw a little bit crossbody, but it's from the first base side of the rubber. And so what he's doing is he's making his arm. This is always the constant like sacrifice you make as a picture is do I want to be able to locate it better or do I want to or make it easier for me to locate or do I want to give in the sacrifice of that is giving the better a better view of what's coming. So he's I think he's probably especially be looking at his pitch mix. I think he's he's worried about lefties. So he's moved to the first base side so that lefties don't get to see that long. They don't get to see forever. What's happening in what I see is that he can't take down Fridays. And it's like it's maybe should do the screens where he has two different release points. Right. Maybe I mean look, I just see left hand left side of the rubber. I think man, if there's anybody that can put things where he wants to, you could not even go inside. If you go more in the right side of the

52:54rubber, then it's still least coming at this aggressive angle that is going to be harder to it's going to create a better tunnel for your sinker and your sweeper, at least even away. Because I mean, if he moved to the third base side, he might solve your sinker thing. He might just throw the sinker the same. That's what right. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. So I don't know. I mean, right now George Kirby for the season is a two as a 424 ERA 139 whip in a 20% K rate if you can believe that. I mean, we're talking about there is no such thing as floor. I'm now looking at this and like this. I mean, there's guys are discord in the rates and barrels discord who are just convinced that he's not good. Right. So that's the thing. I don't believe that for a second. Yeah. I mean, this is, I see this a little bit two years now. It's almost 300 innings of a four to, you know, that seems at least some of it's been deserved. Well, there was injury last year, which at least have and it wasn't fully deserved maybe last year because the strike out rate was way better in this year.

53:57And again, I think injury is going to affect things there. He's not been injured this year. 100 some of the innings 29 starts for George Kirby. I have to believe that this off season is going to at least give some illumination for him that there's going to be some other tinkering as you're mentioning. Great park still. All of that. Like I don't expect the same guy. And also, he has the the runway. He has the whole the opportunity. Someone who's consistently gone deep into games despite having these ratios and so many bass runners to see 170 innings in 29 starts is actually a rarity these days. So there's something to also you'll get an extra month. Yeah. My gosh, you know, stop. We had to lose any games last time. And I'm just no, no, not even mean that. I mean, he'll have an extra month. He won't be in the playoffs. Oh, that's a good point. More painful, isn't it? Okay. Yeah.

55:01It's also a 10 hip or nine this year for for George Kirby, which is man. Like you don't see 10 hip or nine at all. And that's another indication to me that there's something hidden in, you know, it's not stuff command. It's perception of from the perception. Actually, I should say, there's something about either sequencing or tunneling or how it's released, maybe tipping, whatever it is. But when I see this kind of hit ability when the locations aren't necessarily bad, the stuff is the necessarily bad. That to me says there's another factor that we can't quite quantify, we're not at least adding to the equation. And that to me gives me hope that there this should be better than what it has been. It just yeah, it's the perfect reset button to me. I don't know. I think like he's not going to go expensive either. He's not going to go high on your draft. And you're going to probably be going after others who haven't consistently gone six innings who also have their warts and I would much rather go for this with George Kirby. I mean,

56:05there's an underlying theme that's kind of interesting in this conversation we're having about, you know, I said earlier, there's this thing as floor. The argument you're making to Kirby on some level is, hey, he's making his starts. He's got some ability. He's got floor, you know, and and we know that every season there are guys who have floor that just put in a great season and hit their seat. Michael Walker, Nick Martinez. Yeah. So like, what did George, like George Kirby can't be worse than Nick Martinez. I'm sorry. I don't think he can. Yeah. And I love the guy, by the way, like in terms of like, he got career and like, you know, not any one game or one season, like in terms of, yes, Nick Martinez, 14% K rate or whatever it is. So I'm going to take, even he will take what that's you first. Yeah. I'll just take a take Kirby and say, you know, if he gets back to 25% strike, I rate 5% walk rate, you know, he could, he could be, I don't, like, I, I, he is a little bit interesting versus like a skeens because that's the same

57:05strike out and walk rate I just gave skeens. But, but for Kirby, he's looking up at it. Right. Yeah. So I think Kirby has to be like a 40s guy. I think I put him ahead of web because he has more potential for strikeouts. And the general rule that I always follow is like, okay, if a guy has a swing strike rate, if you double a swing strike rate and it's like a ticker to a head of the strike out rate, then there's something weird. And this is a 11% swing strike rate that would make 22% and we're seeing a 19.9 rate, 20% strike rate for Kirby right now. That right there is like, okay, maybe there is actually something going on with that he's put away rate as a whole. This is the stat that I've, I know, I need to do all the research on guys. I know this, but it's a stat that I added for myself this year because I knew that it would be helpful. He's on the game level, right. The two strike rate and the game level how off from the game to two strikes in the first place. And then when they get to two strikes, how many times in that game are they putting away that better? 39% so that's 39% of all two strike

58:10counts this season. George Kirby is returning to strike out and the guys who get like 27% plus strikeout rates, even 25% are like 55, right. That is weird again to me. Like 39 is like horrible. If I see under 40, I'm like, oh, geez, if I see under 50, I'm like, oh man, he didn't, he didn't do it, right. So that's something there. Two strike rates I generally want to see 55 to 60% how often either getting to that two strike count in the first place. He's only doing about half of the battery see faces, which kind of leads into the hit per nine because they're aggressive on him, right. That's why he's getting up so many hits. Right, 67% strike rate. And with a 6.7 walk rate. So if you can have the low walk rate, but you got to not have the 10 to 9. It's to me, it's just no, there's something that they're picking up there. It's easier for them to notice swing and to be able to also make contact for whatever reason. And that is I think he's got a feature in you, Pitch. You know, I think you're, I think

59:11then maybe the on the on the thing is good, you know, like moving on the rubber is good. And I think I'd already please just do that. Just be a sinker sweeper guy. That's what you actually are. Now to force him or guy. Yeah, maybe this do bring the splitter back, you know, yeah, something. Yeah. Last one for Will. Yeah, actually, maybe not. Maybe there's two, but Garrett Cole, what is this? Do we like him? Do we not? I mean, the the secret thing about Garrett Cole is that he's become more conventional. He came back with a lower arm slot, you know, and he's more east to west now on a lot of his pitches. And, you know, maybe he can adapt to that. And, you know, he's been throwing more changeups this year and more sinkers this year. So maybe he can cut us not cutters. I don't think he'll ever throw it out again. I think he blames his his elbow going on. No. Yes, I do. I know he does. I know he blames it, but very well.

1:00:12Well, I mean, who knows his body better. But like, you know, this like, this is really hilarious. Guess what is KMISBB is 24, like, like, 25 to five. Yeah. Oh my god. Yeah. I mean, this a 25-5 guy is a good pitcher. Like the average KMISBB is 14. So it's right. But a 25-5 guy is also, he's getting to that KBB from an interesting place where it's not through Ks. It's not like a 25-5 is not as good as a 28-8. Yes. I agree with you. Because you can believe that like, cool, the stuff is there. You just need to throw more strikes. Wow. A 25-5 is like you're kind of doing, you're maxing out. Yeah. You're going, you're going on the wrong direction. So I do think he's going on the wrong direction. But again, 115 innings post post-op with the 25-5. Like, I'll probably have some shares of Cole next year. And ranking?

1:01:15I think I have. Oh, Cole versus skiing. That's what I was really starting with initially. Then they got off track. Yeah, right. Cole after skiing, I think. Cole overskins or after? Oh, man. The Cole got back to 96-8 on the fastball. Well, that's because you can tell yourself I take it or man next year. It would during the season, it was actually initially he had the breaking stuff but could not locate the four-seamer. And now the four-seamer, he has a better feel for it, but now the breaking stuff isn't doing its job. Right? Over the last four games, five straightouts, five, three, four, which is just what is going on. He's not walking. He lost location plus on a slider. You're right. Right. So he kept the slider. And this is why I like the question numbers on his four-seam all year. Yeah. I think that's that's surgery stuff, isn't it? It's just it's the idea of command coming back after. Well, it might be. It could absolutely be. You just need more reps of these things. And the fact of the velocity is back does make me excited. The arm angle has been

1:02:19creeping back up to where it used to be. One thing that I mean, I think you hit on earlier in this podcast, which I think is great because we've discussed it with Castillo and Nola and with Galen are these guys who are successful that are doing the same thing. And they do great quickly, because it's not like how it used to be. I feel like these in the past like three, four years even, there has been such a jump in quality and expectation of pitching that you can't just age out with what you've done again. Like you have to reject now. Guys are better against what you've already done. And they're all accumulating views on you. Like the same thing, Illinois, they're just all seeing you over and over in year. Yeah. So it's harder to maintain the same. So if we're saying, Hey, Gare Cole has going to have the same velocity he used to have in the same slider and stuff like, well, hold on, that's not a positive. You need to adapt. You need to that's why I that's why I like the change up and a few more sinkers than usual. Like,

1:03:21I think there's a little bit of something here being like there could be another version of Cole where he downs up the change up usage trades a few Ks for a few fewer homers. It's not exactly how it's worked out this year. But you know, it's slightly better command next year. Maybe, you know, maybe there's and plus in terms of wrinkles, there's not that many more wrinkles he can do. I mean, if he's not going to go back to the cutter cutter, I mean, there's there's he did die up the sinkers. He did die up the change ups. Yes, he's thrown like three curve balls his whole life. So like, no, no, there was a moment where you actually lean into the regular curve balls. He's like the knuckle curve. Oh, I see. I'm just looking across his thing and being like, where is there a blank? Yeah. He throws a lot of pitches. Yeah, absolutely. There are a few others that we could be bringing up like Eri Perez and Sandi Alcantara. Like they they've certainly fallen off in the back half of this this season. And I honestly am at this point of just I don't want a Marlon's picture unless they leave. I'm just kind of at that point in my life where, you know, we need to we need

1:04:26someone else to take over for these guys because I don't feel like they have the guidance that they need on their own. It's kind of like what the angels a little bit in that respect or it was with the nationals. But maybe those guys, hey, look, those guys are getting different coaches. The national certainly did this year. Angels now they fire their staff. So don't know what the marlins are going to do. But I just find myself seeing Eri. I'm like, this is such an amazing force, see, like you should be just destroying. Sandy is always, Sandy is just a mystery. I mean, he had that amazing season, of course. But it's been trying to get this back. This is Sandy. Yeah. But that's what I want. I don't want it. Yeah, but even he's 39 years old and he's returning to where he was. Oh, man. Oh, my gosh. He's 31. He's almost 32, dude. Almost 39. Yeah. But I have to say he's returning. He's returning back to where he was before this peak.

1:05:30Like there was this peak where he had 23, 24% strikeout rate. That was right. And then, you know, we now have three years and eyeballing it here. Almost, I would say 500 innings, 550 innings since 23 started with a sub 20% strikeout rate. Like there is no way that you can hope for. So the counter argument to that is that he doesn't impockets. It's like EBSM flows. Right. So you see them, you see like the, okay, he's higher than anything. He's lower than anything. He's tremendous amount of weight in 500 innings of a 19% strikeout rate. I'm not saying you're wrong, you know, I'm saying that this is how, you know, you see those flashes and you think he can come back. He's a stretch. I mean, he saw the second half of last year because he was really bad. And then the mirror was like, we think he's going to come and use to game. We're not going to trade him. We're like, yeah, okay. And then he does really well at the end. And then he has a Sandy wasn't so good. And then I dropped him. Of course, then he did well in the middle of the season now. He's bad again. He went on to

1:06:33like a thomasick 14 straight quality starts. Maybe there's one. What do you think he's been, what do you think he's been among player raider? Oh gosh, I don't have this number for him to be right now. But I'm going to say because it's the more ones he didn't get as many wins as you want. But be clueless. Oh, 13 and 10. Oh man, I'm going to say he's 22. 59 really. Yeah. What would have more strikeouts through all the innings. And that's probably a high watermark. That's a high watermark for the last three years. So I think he'll be in the 50s for me. I think him versus web is kind of an interesting conversation. I mean, they're the same guy. They always have been. Yeah. So that's not me. Him frame for about that Logan web. It is a tree on which curvy. I'm putting from relax. Yeah, me too. To throw in George Kirby in there. Yeah, I guess. Last question probably above them. The last question here, you know, I'm trying to get this in my head right now. I do not have an answer. I haven't even sat down to even try and get the answer. So just going to bear with me. I imagine universally we're going to

1:07:37see scubul and jiggum is a rascal is one and two next year. I don't know what already you guys want. You can make arguments about mr. rascal's health. Sure, he didn't get as many innings if scubul being whatever, right? Three, I would think would be camschlitler. I don't I'm trying to put my head I've wrapped my head around four and five. And I imagine there are some that are going to want to put painting totally up in there. Zach Wheeler has one more season, but I don't know if we can do that. Logan Gilbert exists. Jacob Gromsel exists. There's all. Chris sale. Chris sale who's just been like what's going on? Yeah. And Luzardo is that right? Yeah, I'm a moto. Oh, yeah, I'm a moto. Well, yeah, I'm a moto props to him. Yeah, moto is the third best picture this year. That's the thing. So I I certainly had my argument, which was right and wrong. I was right because like he is not going to hit 200 innings on the like other guys. And he's not, but he's going to give you about 180

1:08:42in 29, which is a sale, by the way, was fourth with only 157. Oh, you have a moto beat sale. That's so nuts. So I guess I'm just I think I might have, you know, I think I'm loaded for me as top five just because yeah, I think so too. I mean, he's just proved it to me. He's just doing his study. Yeah, and it'll be interesting to see the back end of the top 10 is not so obvious because you're going to have the some of the hype guys. Do you think the burns can throw more innings? No, no, no, no, no, burns in top 10. You know, did you see? Chase Burns? Oh my gosh, I'm thinking of Corbin Burns. Yeah. Yeah. Oh my god, not putting Corbin Burns. Oh my god. I don't know why I heard Corbin Burns. No, I mean, some of those hype guys, Chase Burns, you're right to bring up, I mean, like, like, where do we put Massac and you know, we can't we already talk about it. We can't do that guys. But, but, right, so I guess this top five is going to be sale and Yamamoto's at the end of that. So, okay,

1:09:46it's really six through 10 is the question. I like, I understand arguments for pain totally. It's six like, and I don't think I will put season my top 10 just because he's got that kind of end of Velo. He's been down every other year. You know, come on, we know this. Yeah, I know, so here like Wheeler does Wheeler get into the top 10, right? Gilbert should Gilbert this year, by the way, 24th best starting picture. All right, you gotta give me the 15th. That's pretty decent. You just gotta give me the 20 right now. Where were you? Okay, well, we had it was Yamamoto sale three four, Rasmus and five. One two is Mizorowski's slitter. Yamamoto sale Rasmus and five, but you're not going to put him top 10 because of injury risk and all that and C6, Messick 7, Scoobal 8, which is a fine place for a number one pick. He could still be a number one pick. We could also do injury, which is the same. Yeah. So Scoobal 8, Luzon 9, you didn't bring up Luzardo. Right. Lats is showing here at 10,

1:10:47that's that's either really very Logan Henderson 10. Oh, yeah, where do we put him? I he's a little frail for my liking. I think there's some injury risk there and I'm not I'm not putting him all the way up. Wheeler, I think we'll go on my top 10 burns a 13 Otani 14 with only 85 innings. Seriously? Amazing. Yeah. I mean, how many wins does he have? I don't like I generally like to I know sounds weird. I like to do the player rater without wins counting. Yeah, that's probably a better way to look at the future eight wins. I mean, he went eight and two. So he's still even though and so 179 ERA. So it's like it was so good that well, I feel good to putting Otani at like seven or eight. Yeah. Sunny Gray was 15. Oh, Christopher Sanchez is still 16. I think he's he's still in my top 10. Nick Martinez 17. Yeah, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, you know, you know, Nick Martinez is waiting for that one because I remember all the conversation. How many times

1:11:49have you ever seen a guy under a 20% strikeout rate being sorry, the top one. I said, you know, it's not anything like that. It's not even like course. It's your it's like once once every two years. So Nick Martinez. There we go. Gavin Williams 19. Oh, that's an interesting one because he clearly hit something like he he is been insane since he figured it out. Yeah, Kate Cavali Logan Gilbert racks the ash craft. Ashcraft. Yeah, I guess the ash craft is deeper off, but we get merged and Jake DeGrom finished it off. And the ground that late is actually pretty shocking. Must be a look fewer wins. Yeah, you're right. The wins category is just a it's just a I mean, you still have the collection of the good guys. I mean, pain totally, I guess wasn't there wasn't yeah, it was okay. Go totally ended up being a 17. Okay. All right. Well, you guys are going to have to wait until next week until for me to actually slid up my five my thoughts with it. I'm obviously

1:12:52going to treat it like it's a normal season because I got to be optimistic here guys. All right. And also, we're going to do on the pod. And I was like, you know, I think we're just going to spend February previewing all the teams like we know we're just going to do as if it's nothing at all. Yeah, nothing at all. Right. We don't want to spend three months talking about the TV. Oh, my gosh. We always get so annoyed entering the season. I'm just like we're just ready to talk about anything else. Just please don't make me say the same exact sound bites over and over again. We've done this for six months. But we'll figure it out. We we always do. Eno Saras, everybody. Thank you so much for being an incredible guest. What can we expect from you in the final weeks of the year? I've got two big pieces coming out the cobs as an innovator doing something innovative and some pre CBA discussion stuff with Evan. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Can we yeah, Brian Moe is going to be in my top 20s. And next week, I mean, now you'll be here.

1:13:55You hear the early preview. You know, here. That's it. So may you finish well at all your leagues. Good luck, everyone. Seriously, the ones I were listening still, you're the real ones. I hope you enjoyed the free trial of peel pro, by the way. We are going to maybe do that again. I don't know. We have a demo that's coming out. That's going to be amazing. We also have live sync. Oh my gosh. Like I confirmed you will have live sync for drafts. Yes. Number one requested feature. Okay. I'm going to sign off now. No one heard any of that. Thank you all so much for joining us today. Thank you, Eno Saras. My name is Nick Pollock. I'll talk about the craft of pitching again next week. You just do nothing now. You got no, you got no moves. Pro football is back. Traeger predictions on Calci America's number one prediction market platform. Andy is currently trading at 28% to upset Kansas City, meaning a $100 trade pays out $350 if they win. Download Calci, use cofal to get $25 when you trade $25 KALSHI. Calci trade on anything.

1:14:5918 plus only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. The then contract trading of those risking may not be suitable for all investors. Calci products are not available in all jurisdictions. Prices, values and available markets may differ from those mentioned. For more information, see Calci.com slash regulatory. Insurance isn't one size fits all. That's why drivers have enjoyed progressive's name your price tool for years now. With the name your price tool, you tell them what you want to pay and they'll show you options that fit your budget. Whether you're picking out your first policy or just looking for something that works better for you and your family, they make it easy to see your options. Visit progressive.com, find a rate that works for you with the name your price tool, Progressive Casually Insurance Company and Affiliates. Prices and coverage match limited by state law.