Chuck’s Commentary - Trump’s Polling Numbers Should Terrify The GOP + Trump Has No Good Options For Iran War

Chuck Todd unpacks a wave of devastating new polling that shows Americans have lost confidence in Trump across nearly every metric, with his approval cratering among independents and only his hardcore base still standing by him. He notes Trump is underwater on virtually every issue except taxes, immigration, and the border — that his trustworthiness is lower than any past president, that even 22% of his own 2024 voters don't believe he's kept his promises, and that his approval has collapsed with younger voters even as it holds up with the elderly. In a particularly striking finding, only 1 in 10 Americans approve of Trump naming things after himself, and even the "own the libs" voters can't get behind that particular vanity. Todd warns this is a political disaster in the making for Republicans: the enthusiasm gap is now massive in the Democrats' favor, and the Iran war is polling more unpopular than the worst polling ever recorded for Iraq or Vietnam. Yet despite all this, neither party's brand has actually improved with swing voters — both parties still carry almost identical unfavorability ratings, voters of both parties don't even want their leaders to work across the aisle anymore, and the political incentives are now firmly aligned with confrontation rather than compromise — creating an enormous opportunity for independent candidates that neither major party seems prepared to address. On Iran, he says there is no political room for Trump to escalate militarily — his only real escalation option would be ground troops, which would risk total political collapse — and predicts the eventual deal will look like whatever framework the Iranians put forward. He flags a striking recent Tucker Carlson interview in which Carlson was forced to face hard facts, observing that Tucker increasingly looks like a combination of Pat Buchanan and Roger Ailes who is genuinely trying to build a political movement of his own. He returns to the case for expanding the House of Representatives as the fix for the Supreme Court's Voting Rights Act ruling, warns that Republicans could pay a serious political price if Southern voters perceive the GOP as actively trying to disenfranchise Black voters and closes with the news that Janet Mills has dropped out of the Maine Senate race — leaving Democrats now trying to coalesce around Graham Platner, in what Chuck says feels increasingly like a mirror image of the 2016 presidential campaign. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the Hindenburg disaster and how it was the origin of “breaking news”, and also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

08:30 New polling shows Americans have no confidence in Trump

09:15 Trump’s approval has cratered with independent voters

10:00 Trump is only above his approval rating on taxes, immigration and border

10:45 The only people that approve of Trump are his base

12:45 The polling shows a massive repudiation of Trump

14:15 Trump’s trustworthiness is lower than any past president

16:45 Only 78% of Trump voters believe he’s kept his promises

18:15 Trump’s highest approval is with older voters, collapsed with younger voters

20:00 Only 1 in 10 Americans approve of Trump naming things after himself

21:00 Even the “own the libs” voters don’t like Trump naming things after himself

24:30 Republicans expected ethics in government to improve & they haven’t

25:45 Both parties still have almost identical unfavorability ratings

26:15 The Democratic brand hasn’t improved amongst swing voters

28:15 Voters of both parties don’t want leaders to work across the aisle

29:15 Neither side is incentivized to compromise

31:15 Voters are rewarding confrontation

33:45 Dems more trusted on healthcare, Republicans trusted on crime

34:15 Almost every other issue is up for grabs for both parties

34:45 Neither party has trust on dealing with AI

36:15 There’s a huge opportunity for independents in this political climate

36:45 There’s a huge enthusiasm gap favoring the Democrats

38:00 This is a political disaster in the making for Republicans

38:30 Iran war is more unpopular than worst polling for Iraq & Vietnam

40:15 Trump’s only escalation option in Iran is to send in ground troops

41:15 If Trump wants to escalate he better have a plan

41:45 Far more damage to American military assets than we were told

42:30 The Iranian framework for a deal will likely be the one agreed to

43:30 There is no political room for Trump to escalate militarily

44:00 Trump risks total political collapse if he escalates in Iran

45:00 Tucker Carlson forced to face facts in recent interview

46:00 Tucker is a combination of Pat Buchanon and Roger Ailes

47:45 Carlson feels like someone who is trying to build a movement

49:00 Expanding congress would fix SCOTUS Voting Rights Act ruling

50:30 There will be angry voters in the south after this ruling

52:00 Republicans could pay a political price due to backlash from SCOTUS

53:45 If Republicans try to disenfranchise black voters, they could juice turnout

54:45 Trump is more focused on targeting disloyal Republicans than Democrats

56:00 Janet Mills drops out, Dems trying to come around on Graham Platner

56:45 Platner race feels like mirror image of 2016 campaign for president

1:02:15 ToddCast Time Machine - May 6th 1937 - The Hindenburg Disaster

1:03:15 Crowds arrived to watch the Hindenburg 

1:04:30 Commercial zeppelin travel had existed for 30 years already

1:05:15 The Hindenburg carried the symbols of Nazi Germany

1:06:00 In 34 seconds the entire airship was destroyed

1:06:45 “Oh The Humanity” becomes an iconic term from broadcasting

1:07:15 The recording wasn’t broadcast live, but was presented as breaking news

1:08:30 Airships fell out of fashion and airplanes made them uncompetitive

1:09:15 The Hindenburg didn’t just fail technically, it failed publicly

1:10:15 Ask Chuck

1:10:30 Have you fallen into the normalization trap? Trump has impeachable offenses

1:16:00 Thoughts on Adam Hamilton running as a Dem in Kansas?

1:19:30 Has any president been as intentionally divisive as Trump?

1:21:45 Take on the expansion of March Madness tournament?

1:26:15 How much impact could the Forward Party have?

1:31:45 Thoughts on the weekend in sports

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