Interview Only w/ Ian Shapiro - Why The West Is Living In A 1930s-Style Crisis Again

Yale political scientist Ian Shapiro — author of the new book After the Fall — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation about the missed opportunities of the post-Cold War era and what it would take to actually fix what's broken in the global political economy. Shapiro argues America fundamentally squandered its chance to integrate Russia into the West after the Soviet collapse — there should have been a Marshall Plan for Russia along the lines of what was done for Germany and Japan after World War II, and both Yeltsin and Putin (in his early years) actively lobbied to join the Western order. Clinton was hesitant to help Russia economically, the 1994 midterm results pushed him away from foreign policy ambition entirely, and the eventual pivot toward NATO expansion in Eastern Europe — rather than transforming NATO into something genuinely inclusive — froze Russia out and is exactly when Putin's worldview hardened into the revanchism we're dealing with today. Shapiro extends this analysis to 2008, calling the financial crisis another massive missed opportunity: Obama had to bail out the banks, but his failure to insist on a parallel bailout for Main Street allowed the elites to rescue themselves while imposing austerity on everyone else, which directly fueled the right-wing populism now reshaping politics across the West.

The conversation pivots to what comes next. Shapiro is clear that the good policies of the 2030s won't be a rehash of the New Deal — they need to address modern realities. He argues governments need to help workers be flexible rather than redistributing wealth through politically toxic taxation, advocating instead for portable health insurance and portable child care that follows the worker. Shapiro makes a forceful case for immigration as the only realistic answer to America's demographic challenges, noting that Spain and Poland are economically outperforming much of Europe specifically because they've embraced immigration to support aging populations. He warns that we're living in a world disturbingly similar to the 1930s — if ordinary people don't benefit from economic growth, they will not continue supporting the existing order — and notes that right-wing populists don't actually have answers; they just attack the elites. Shapiro argues Trump is inadvertently benefiting China enormously, but cautions that authoritarian governments are fundamentally bad at managing complex economies, so it's still unlikely China's model wins the 21st century. Shapiro closes by warning that the anti-Trump coalition has become too big to govern, but that if Zohran Mamdani succeeds in New York, it could meaningfully energize progressive politics nationally — proof that the road forward requires real ideas about power, not just opposition to Trumpism.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Ian Shapiro (After the Fall) joins The Chuck ToddCast

01:30 How long did you work on the book?

03:15 The lack of a Marshall Plan for Russia was a missed opportunity

04:00 Russia should have been dealt with like Germany & Japan after WW2

05:00 Yeltsin & Putin lobbied to join the west & we blew that opportunity

06:15 Clinton was hesitant to help Russia economically

07:30 ‘94 midterm results dissuaded Clinton from focusing on foreign policy

09:00 Clinton pivoted from rapprochement NATO expansion in eastern Europe

10:00 There were opportunities to transform NATO into something else

11:30 NATO feels necessary again, we’re back in another cold war

12:30 What if we had brought Ukraine into NATO in the 90s?

13:15 When Russia was frozen out of the west, that’s when Putin changed

13:45 Eastern Europeans have a deep distrust of the Russians

15:00 The rise of right wing populism is driven by economics

15:45 2008 financial crisis was a missed opportunity for Obama

17:30 Elites bailed themselves out in 2008 & imposed austerity on everyone else

19:00 Obama had to bail out banks, but didn’t force a bail out of main street too

20:45 How do you begin to undo protectionism and nationalism?

21:30 Good policies of the 2030s won’t be a rehash of the New Deal

22:30 Gina Riamondo has smart policies for transforming the labor force

24:00 Government needs to aid the modern worker to help them be flexible

25:15 Taxation and redistribution is politically toxic. Better to incentivize business

26:15 Portable health insurance and child care would give workers flexibility

27:30 Domestic immigration is incredibly difficult and cost prohibitive

28:15 Every state needs immigration in order to fix demographic challenges

29:30 Spain & Poland’s economies are performing well because of immigration

30:15 We need immigrants in order to support services for an aging population

31:00 In some ways, we’re living in a world similar to the 1930s

32:15 If people don’t benefit from growth, they won’t support the existing order

33:00 Right wing populists don’t have answers, they just attack the elites

33:30 Spain is one of the few western countries that is getting it right

35:30 The west hasn’t dealt well with the rise of China

36:00 Everything Trump is doing has benefitted China enormously

37:30 Unlikely that China’s model wins the 21st century

38:45 Authoritarian governments aren’t good for managing a complex economy

39:45 India is even further down the nationalist road than the U.S.

41:00 UK’s two major parties are facing the potential of collapse

42:00 Could either of the two major two parties in America collapse?

43:00 Both parties pushing the same policies & benefits go to the top

45:00 Do globally integrated economies make world war less likely?

46:30 Major war results in mutually assured economic destruction

47:30 The calamities of the 30s and 40s led to massive, inclusive economic growth

48:30 Massive, stateless companies are accruing more power than states

50:00 The global oligarchs are still reliant on markets and consumers

50:45 Governments will need to coordinate to put guardrails on the oligarchs

51:30 If business isn’t part of the solution, they will be part of the problem

53:00 The Trump administration is cratering & left is reveling in the schaudenfreude

54:30 The anti-Trump coalition is too big to govern

55:15 If Mamdani succeeds, could that energize progressive politics nationally?

57:15 Where can people find your work?

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