Closing Bell 3/11/26

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And welcome to Closing Bell. I am Frank Holland in for Scott Wapner. We're live at Post-9 right here

at the New York Stock Exchange, and this make a break hour starts. With the down day on Wall Street,

take a look, stocks are slumping. In the red across the board, the down down more than 350 points,

the Nasdaq fracturing lower, the S&P down a quarter, 1%, small caps pulling back by a half

a percent. This is your scorecard with 60 minutes left in regulation. Inflation holding

steady consumer prices, the ERO is 2.4% for February in line with what the street was looking for.

That news, however, overshadowed by the continuing moves higher in oil. The IEA is announcing

it released 400 million barrels of oil the largest ever from its reserves. Still, you see oil

prices moving higher right now, WTI crude above $87 a barrel. Software, that's a bright spot,

which shares Oracle jumping, earnings and revenue beat estimates. The company also raised its

fiscal 27 revenue forecast. We will discuss if it's time to jump back into that sector again with

our panel in just one moment. But first you begin with the continuing moves in oil, really the

story of this week, our Pippa Stevens with the very latest and what's driving it higher once again.

Pippa? Hey, Frank, while oil is rising and Bren is back above $90 even after, the largest

tapping of oil reserves in history with the International Energy Agency, agreeing to release

400 million barrels across its 32 member countries, about a third of the 1.2 billion barrels in

emergency stockpiles. Executive director Fatigue Beryl is saying, quote, the oil market challenges

we are facing are unprecedented in scale. Now, the IEA not yet giving a timeline for when these

barrels will hit the market, but said it will be at a timeframe appropriate to the circumstances

of each country. The flow rate or how fast the oil can get out of reserves is what is key.

JP Morgan estimates a daily flow of just 1.2 million barrels per day, meaning it won't do a lot

to offset how much is being lost daily in the Gulf. When it comes to the U.S. specifically,

Interior Secretary Doug Burnham weighing in just now on CNBC's power lunge.

You're hearing out of the IEA today is a reasonable on their part, but clearly whether the U.S.

participates is up to President Trump, he'll make the final decision on that.

Now, the U.S. SBR is at 58 percent of capacity with 415 million barrels.

Once the president decides to draw it down, it takes 13 days for the oil to be delivered.

So, the bottom line here is that the reserve barrels will take a bit, Frank, to hit the market.

Back to you.

Pippa, thank you very much. Our Pippa Stevens live at CNBC HQ.

Time to add a bring in our panel, Schwab's Kevin Gordon, CNBC contributor.

It's definitely a link of high tower and edclistle of Ned Davis Research. Join us.

I'm going to start with you, Kevin. You're right here with me at Post 9.

Thank you for being here on Day Like This.

Can I see you?

So, you're saying to the markets a bit sanguine about some of the action that we've seen right now.

You're saying that people are kind of taking it all in stride?

Yeah, I mean, if you look at, and I would say at the index level, to make that distinction,

I think is really important because there has been a ton of carnage below the surface,

more so at the industry level as opposed to the sector level, but at the same time,

similar to what you're seeing with the bounce back and software and actually tech over the past

couple of days, some of that is being unwound because a lot of that weakness was concentrated

in tech leading up to the conflicts. I think that's an important thing to keep in mind,

especially because on Day Like Today, you do have a lot more weakness at the headline level for

the index, but under the surface, it's even worse from a breadth perspective because that participation

is a lot weaker. So tech is sort of responsible for some of that relative lift or less relative

weakness. I think it's an important distinction to make in terms of the sanguine nature of the market.

Would another word possibly be overconfident? I've been talking to a lot of traders. A lot of them seem

to think this whole thing and somehow in April, and while it's certainly possible, there's no clear

path to that happen. Yeah, I do think that we're going to have to start, the longer this drags on,

it's going to be more a matter of, less a matter of the US declaring that this is over and declaring

victory and stopping the hits to Iran and then having to really dissect how long is it going to take

for operations to come back for oil production, but also oil flow? What is the reaction function,

the response mechanism of Iran and the broader Middle East? That to me, I think becomes more of

the dominant question. I think we'll ultimately drive the market with energy sort of being at the

central part of that. Link, I want to come over to you. S&P down about one and a half percent since

this conflict started. I don't know if sanguine is the word that you would use, but you say it could

be down even more. I'm just looking since this all started. Envy is higher, Amazon's higher,

Microsoft's higher. These are a lot of the names that we thought would lift the market higher

throughout the year. On the other side, the Dow is down about three percent. The S&P

equal weight down even more than that. Is the broadening trade, is that in jeopardy right now?

Is that quote-unquote halo trade in jeopardy right now? Well, it certainly has narrowed. At one

point, the equal weight S&P was up six and a half percent when the market cap weighted was flat

on the year. So that's narrowed a little bit, but I still think that we're going to continue to

see a broadening out, Frank, because in the face of all this stuff that's going on, and I'm not saying

not to worry, but we've had Venezuela, scotus on the tariffs. We have AI and software concerns,

private credit concerns, and now a war, and you're just off 1.2 percent on the S&P 500, and you're

still up two percent on the equal weight. So to me, the economy is the thing that's driving

the earnings, obviously, and earnings have been pretty good. Now, the economy in the face of

all this is still growing at about two, two and a half percent, and the consumer is still

consuming. In AI, we know the trends are very powerful. We heard a lot of good detail last night

from Oracle. That's alive and well. The food chain of AI is alive and well. That meaning the

data center companies, the industrials, the utilities, the power companies, all of those stocks

have done pretty well on the face of all these negative headlines. So I think it's not just

Mag 7 anymore. It's broadening out. I like to see that, and on the days where we say a dip,

and we have seen quite a few, and we've seen a lot of volatility, I think you want to be looking

at best-in-class that gets hit with the rest of the broader market.

Yeah, volatility. That's also the word of this week, I would say, and I want to come over to you.

You're saying the market's kind of gotten over this idea of AI eats everything. However,

it seems the narrative shift to higher oil kind of eats everything. We've really seen the impact

on the quote-unquote real economy. Is that better when it comes to volatility, the concerns about

higher oil? I think that the story of the week is volatility and the concerns over what the

long-term impacts are going to be around oil. To build on Stephanie's point, the premium that

the Mag 7 traded at the beginning of the year was around eight points to the rest of the market,

which is the upper end of its range last five years. Now it's back under four, which is where

the lows that was last April, and also we got to the end of 2022. So we've kind of

gotten through that valuation premium, and this will allow, you know, regardless of the reason was,

now we can move forward and oil could be that. But I think that the big concerns about oil

is not what's going to happen next week. Well, it's in two months from now. Is that going to flow

through the headline inflation number? Is that going to flow through to some of the jobs numbers

that could bring the expansion into jeopardy? By the way, just speaking of volatility,

looking at the VIX sitting at about 25 right now, obviously off of its highs, but still elevated.

All right, everybody stick with me. We're going to be talking about JP Morgan reducing its exposure

to the private credit industry. Our Leslie Picker has the details. Leslie.

This involves leverage that JP Morgan is providing to private credit funds that the asset managers

used to juice their own returns known as back leverage. The collateral for this type of financing

is the underlying loans for those private credit funds. And that's what's being slightly marked

down here according to two sources close to the situation. I'm told that JP Morgan took this moment,

did some additional due diligence across the financing portfolio went named by name, and then they

had this overlay of the macro environment and sector based analysis. And then from there,

they determined that the loans were too highly valued. In this environment, a lot of this, of course,

has to do with the revaluation we've seen recently in software. So now, what does this all mean?

First, let's be super clear here that this is not JP Morgan clocking a bunch of losses. It's seen

as rather a preemptive move. One source described it to me as pumping the brakes versus hitting the wall.

There are not an onslaught of margin calls at this time. It also does not mean that private

credit clients necessarily need to immediately post more collateral. That's only the case if they

want more leverage. Now, what this does is it limits the borrowing capacity for some private credit

managers from JP Morgan lines. Now, you can see shares of major alternative asset managers

are slumping today, Frank. All right, big thanks to our Leslie Picker, Kevin. I want to come back

over to you. When we talk about this potential for a private credit crisis or a credit crunch,

does that make you concerned about the financials that have been underperforming more broadly?

I also want to point out the president of Pimco out saying it's kind of sloppy underwriting that

led us to the situation. I think on the private credit space in general, I'm not sort of stating

the obvious here in terms of the opacity of that space and just the lack of visibility that a lot

of us have in it. I would say if you look at the weakness in financials in particular, definitively

on an equal weighted basis, it's been one of the weakest sectors, if not the weakest, definitely

year to date. I think that in isolation, the fact that it hasn't necessarily spilled into other

parts of the market in terms of sort of that direct linkage. Number one, you could say it's too

early to say that, but number two, I think that there are other things that play in terms of

other sectors doing relatively better relative to financials. That cyclical weakness that they

may be signaling seems to be a little bit more isolated. So I think for now, especially in an

equal weighted sense, because I think that's a better way to look at sector sort of positioning

in action so far this year, it does seem a little bit more isolated relative to the rest of the

market. You know, Link, a lot of talk about entry points for the market, actually, and now

a note out earlier, if I believe from Bank of America saying this could be an attractive entry point

to this market in general, just because some of the declines. We're looking at these private credit

names. Leslie, did some great reporting about that earlier today. I think most of them are down

about 20 to 30 percent. Is this an attractive valuation level for those names right now?

I think for the blue chip companies, Frank, yes. So I have owned KKR in the past. I don't at this

moment, but they are such a, one of the very best in terms of lending and they have diversification

as well throughout all of the various different subsecments within private markets in general.

And so I think you are going to get some really good opportunities, but I actually think that the

the opportunity really is in the big six public banks. I think the public banks are taking share

over the private markets companies, and that is because over the last 15 years, the public banks

have had enormous scrutiny from the regulators. And now that is going to start to at least ease

a little bit. We're going to get Basel 3N game later this month, most likely. That's what the rumor

is. That is going to unlock a lot of capital for shareholders, dividends, buybacks, and all by

the way, loan growth. And then when I listened to the public companies like Bank of America yesterday,

that was at a conference, talking about net interesting come expected to be up 7 percent investment

banking, up double digits, capital markets are really doing well. Pipelines are strong,

and we haven't even had really IPOs recently. So I think there's a lot that they have going on.

And then on top of that, you've got a little bit less strict rules for them. They're not going

to ease them completely. That's not going to happen, but at least give them a little bit of wiggle room

to do what they're supposed to do, which is loan and lend out to companies and to keep the economy

growing. I mean, I look at the H8 data every week from the Federal Reserve, and the numbers are

really very good, especially on the CNI loans. So I think there's more opportunity on the public banks

versus the private markets, but there are some in private markets that are getting very attractive.

For the long term. Fair point. I had coming over to you, you know, Link just mentioned economic

growth. That's something that you're watching in relation to the midterms this year,

and the President's agenda for affordability, economic growth, national security. And you're saying

that's a hard play in the land to get all three of them. I just want to focus on economic growth.

We are seeing what appears to be the consumer slowing down a bit, or at least the expectation,

because of higher gas prices. Is that impact the financials in their outlook in your mind?

It certainly can, because right now economic growth has been driven by two things,

you know, AI-driven cat-backs in the high-end consumer, which is really driven by what's going on

in financial markets. You get down to the, say, the lower 80 percent of Americans by income,

and the savings has long been depleted, and they're really having to dip into their savings

for any sort of additional spending with job growth being where it is. And you throw on higher prices

at the pump. That's going to have an impact right away, and certainly have an impact on investor

sentiment. And so coming into the year, we thought economic growth was going to be stronger.

In the first part of the year, if we got a bump from one big, beautiful bill, as part of Trump's

initiatives to boost Republicans' chances in midterms and then slow down later on in the year.

But if that's going to be a little bit sooner rather than later, it is going to have an impact,

and I think you could see that in sectors like financials.

All right. Everybody stick with me just for a second. Speaking of volatility,

let's talk about the software sector and its volatility. It's front and center for investors,

but the big question is it finally investible again, Deirdre Bosses here.

The answer to that question, hopefully, in much more Deirdre.

The short answer is maybe or selectively. So call it,

software is we're bench trades service now, Polo Alto, CrowdStrike, DataDog.

These names they are bouncing on real earnings, the acceleration, and clawing back some of those

pretty heavy losses this year. But before you call this and all clear, the broader sector IGV,

it is still down 20% year to date, and AI is still raising real questions over development cycles,

seat-based pricing, and the value proposition for legacy vendors. Now, one name that has not

recovered as much as Salesforce. It is kicking off a debt sale today of up to $25 billion to fund

stock buybacks. This is a move that has meant to signal confidence, but may just raise questions

about whether that money would be better spent on the AI transition itself. And that is the

dividing line. It is the companies that are embedding AI into the product, not just talking about it,

when investors are saying reprising went too far. So selectively, yes, software is investible

again, but for the next leg of the AI trade Frank, this is a stock picker's market, not a sector bet.

Our dear Dr. Bose, so thank you very much for that look at the software sector. And right now,

we want to bring in CMBC contributor and big technologies, Alex Cantrowitz, Kevin Gordon,

Stephanie Canacklissel, all still with us as well. Kevin, thank you for being here.

I'm sorry, Alex, thank you for being here.

Alex, let me just ask you. So, investible is a very interesting word. We've seen software

decline quite a bit. I'm looking at the IGV when a lot of people use the benchmark. About 27%

off is 52 week high. I'm looking at other ones like the cybersecurity ETF, the CIVR, about 16%

away from its 52 week high. Are the levels that these different ETFs have? Is that what makes

it investible? Or are you actually seeing upside for these companies even in the AI era?

I mean, I think it is investible, but if you're going to do it, you better hold on to your seat.

Yes, IGV is down significantly off its lows, but it's not like the software industry is doing

worse than it was beforehand. It's just this fear that AI will replace them.

So, the bad news is if you're into software that AI is going to get a lot better in the next

couple months. I mean, people in the software and the AI industry talk about as if they're in

Wuhan at the beginning of 2020. That's literally the language they use that they can see this

exponential growth coming that the rest of the world can't and look out everybody.

The good news is that software is really difficult to displace, taking Salesforce out and putting

some vibe coded application in is very difficult. And if you do it wrong, you're going to get fired.

So, there is a potential transition that's going to happen. It's just a much longer term transition

than I think the panic is starting to expect. Okay, so you say it's a long term transition.

I don't know if you saw this. Goldman came out with an earlier this week kind of looking at this

whole situation about AI being investible. And one of the points that they made is that, yeah,

AI is not going to kill software, but it's going to be new AI native entrants are going to really

take market share in some of these legacy companies. They might just be a quote unquote system of

record with their install base. Is that a real threat for these publicly listed players that that

scenario could play out? It's quite possible, but again, it's going to take a long time. So,

the question is, is today's existing software just a database for tomorrow's AI applications?

And there's a debate going on in Silicon Valley right now. Is the future of software?

Is it something that you bolt on to existing systems? Like, is it Salesforce with a chatbot or is

Salesforce data something that you access in a chatbot that your agent then goes out and connects

with other systems and does something for you? I think long term, there's a real argument to be

made that it centralizes somewhere, but that's going to take a while. And by the way, Salesforce will

have something to say about that. It's not going to just capitulate and be like, all right, you want

all my data? You want everything export? It's going to take some time. So, they will give the

customers what they want, but it's not going to be that easy. All right. One thing to point out is

that Salesforce is also down on the Moody's downgrade today. That may be kind of impacting some

other software names. Definitely, I want to come over to you. Is there any part of the software

stack that you feel confident in despite these fears of AI disruption that's going to get past this

rough patch and continue to go on? And not only hold on to customers, but hold on to market share?

I have the most confidence in the cybersecurity companies and that I own Palo Alto. I also like

Synopsis. It's mission critical software. So, I think you want to be very selective. But, I mean,

to me, Palo Alto has done nothing. And if anything, cybersecurity is going to be bigger than AI because

of AI. I mean, you have companies that are using non-humans, AI, to build code. And that's not

safe, Frank. And so, you are going to need cybersecurity companies. Meanwhile, Palo Alto is growing

their next-gen security revenues organically at 28%. They see margin expansion, free cash flow

growing. And then I think Synopsis is just an amazing company with this Ancest acquisition.

Their total addressable market overnight goes from 31 billion to 58 billion. The more complicated

chips get, the more they need mission critical software. And that is what Synopsis is. And they've

got a 41% share and 70% recurring revenue. So, these two stocks have acted poorly, just like the

rest of software. But I think when you do get some semblance of, like, just balance in the industry,

I think these stocks will do much better going forward. So, Ed, you said Senate was just kind of

bad in the short term going into some of these disruptions we've seen when AI and also with the

Iran conflict. Is it possible? The software is just caught up in a lot of bad sentiment,

and we will see a recovery going in the back end of the year. And it is investable,

even if there is going to be disruption that the stocks themselves will move higher?

Yeah, so our short term Senate composite has gotten the levels that usually signifies pretty

significant pessimism on the part of traders. We were there a couple weeks ago and I was

gotten even more pessimistic with what's gone on in Iran. And our playbook coming into the year

was that perhaps these mega-cap growth stocks would underperform, and then they usually start

to outperform a little bit before mid-term elections, once all that uncertainty is priced in.

It's possible we've just done so much of that price, and then that maybe you could get a better

entry point sooner. But I would emphasize that there's going to be so much kind of going through

the weeds now. It was kind of a shoot first, ask questions later situation. Now we're asking questions,

and we're going to see who the winners and losers are. But we've hit an interesting situation

with valuations. Large-cap growth versus large-cap value, just looking at a forward PE ratio.

That is the lowest level in nine years. I mean, the growth stocks are the cheapest versus value

in almost a decade. So there's going to be some opportunities here, maybe not at the

court style level growth versus value, but as you start to dig into the decals. Kevin, I want

to come over to you, just kind of bringing this full circle. You've been looking at the economy,

and I'm bringing up the economy because you say it's remarkable and grim at the same time.

GDP-strong, but employment's kind of weak. That weak employment, doesn't that really hit the

software sector when it comes to seats? Well, very much actually in keeping with I think this

whole discussion around how much labor displacement you ultimately get from AI. I think the good news

about it is fortunately we haven't seen much displacement if you're looking at the pace of

the changing occupational mix and job displacement since the release of Chatchee BT, if you want to

use that sort of as your proxy. So so far, there hasn't been any evidence of major dislocation,

but I think that at the same time, even though you've been in this remarkable economy from a GDP

perspective, not remarkable growth relative to history because growth last year was pretty slow,

relative to history. But the fact that you can grow more than 2% in inflation adjusted terms with

basically no growth in the labor force is pretty remarkable, and it speaks to this really strong

productivity story that we have. So I do think that so far, you know, up until this point because

of a lot of these headwinds we face from a demographic standpoint, from an immigration standpoint,

you do need that technology to the extent it's being used, or it will be used in the future.

I do think you need it to help sort of stomach some of the pain that will come from more downward

pressure on the labor force. So it is this sort of unique situation to be in. It's a little akin to

a jobless expansion, which we have experienced before, but the last one we experienced was in the

early 2000s after the 2001 recession. Obviously we are not coming off of a recession, we're not coming

off of a two and a half year bear market at this point. So that makes this environment sort of

entirely unique relative to history. Alex, I want to give you the last word. I think earlier,

I'm going to paraphrase what you were saying, you're saying there's some software that's

mission critical, and if you don't get it right, that an IT person, a chief information security

officer could lose their job. Exactly what names are those, if you don't my name and names,

or what part of the software stack is that? Is that cyber security, is that CRM? What is it?

So I have a rule of thumb here, and to build off what Stephanie was mentioning about cyber security,

if your software program is just a fancy user interface on top of the database, you have problems.

But if your software system is doing something else, for instance, if your software system is

securing the security of your programs within the company, that's more than just UI on a database.

If your software system like in Adobe, by the way, is helping people be creative and can't be

displaced with a prompt, then you're probably in good shape. So I think with labor and with software,

we see this technology do something, right? You're like, oh, it can build a piece of software,

it can build this nice UI, and then all of a sudden there's this panic. Everybody's going to be

unemployed, or the entire software industry is gone. And I think it's just really important,

the market doesn't think of it critically, unfortunately. I think that where investors can get

an edge is if you think about it critically and you say, can this actually be replaced with AI,

or does this do something differentiated that is not just a nice user interface on a database?

I think this conversation is just starting. I think it's just starting. All right, Alex, Kevin,

Stephanie, Ed, thank all of you. Really appreciate it. All right, we're just getting started here

on Closing Bell. Coming up next, Memory Stocks might be experiencing a very big shift,

how it could impact your trading playbook coming up right after this break.

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Hey, welcome back to Closing Bell. We are getting some news on Cezars.

Julia Borsten has that for us, Julia.

Tillman Fertida is in talks to buy Cezars for $7 billion, according to report in the Wall Street

Journal. On this news, shares of Cezars have been are now up about 5 percent.

And I believe had been halted, but they are now up, look like they were up about 4.5 percent

intraday. Now, what's essential here is that this report shows that Fertida Entertainment has

been discussing paying around $34 a share, which should be topping a bid from Icon and that would

give the company a market value of over $5 billion back over to you. Excuse me, today's shares,

today's shares, yesterday's shares had a market value of over $5 billion. So this would be

quite a premium at a $7 billion offer back over to you. Yeah, I mean, we're seeing the chart.

Huge spike to the upside for Cezars right now.

Our Julia Borsten went the very latest on Cezars and a possible acquisition bid there.

All right, for decades, memory stocks, they were a trader's game, but it looks like that could

be shifting in a very big way. Our Christina Parts and Evelists is here with much more on that

story, Christina. You mentioned the trader's game, so really just a boom bust repeat for memory.

That's what it's been in the past, but the executives I spoke with say the same thing.

This cycle is different. HPECO told me directly, quote, we will continue to raise prices because

the industry will continue to raise prices. There is not enough supply for demand,

he's speaking about memory. Meta just announced a new in-house AI chip today and management

told CNBC, quote, we're absolutely worried about high bandwidth memory supply, but that they've

also locked in memory supply for their buildouts, and they're not as worried. SK Heinex told me that

AI workloads require far more memory intensive architecture than anything the industry was built

to support before, and that's why customers are willing to lock in these long-term agreements.

It's not just at SK Heinex, micron management told me customers are now more than willing to

sign these agreements that go beyond just a year, so locking in memory for years to come.

Broadcom, perfect example. The CEO said on his earnings call, he's locked in supply

all the way through 2028. That's the first time I've heard a company actually say that.

With hyperscalers crowding out of consumer supply and no meaningful relief for the supply until

2027 at the earliest, memory stocks have searched. Micron up more than 350 percent, Sandisk over

1,000 percent just in the last year. What memory management is now asking investors to believe

is that this time is different. That AI has structurally broken the old boom bus cycle,

and with long-term contracts replacing spot market deals, and hyperscalers locking in supply for

years might just be the case, Frank. You know, Christina, I want to ask a question. Maybe you've

answered this a million times and I just missed it, but we always talk about the hyperscalers

creating their own chips, whether they're TPUs or something else. Why are they not also creating

memory chips if the supply is so tight? Excellent question. Excellent question. Just think of how

difficult it is to actually make a chip in general, and how long Google, for example, is working

on the TPUs. They're tensor processing units for over a decade. So to diversify even more and

focus on memory, it's just a very difficult task and probably not worthwhile for a lot of these

companies when they'd rather focus on the chips that are valuable for training, for inference.

The memory is a secondary part. Many of them are working on that as well. I don't know the

details because they won't share on the memory section, but I think it has to really do with the

fact that the GPUs and CPUs, et cetera, and all those chips are just a little bit more important

for them right now to get right over or anything else. All right, Christina Parts and Evelace,

with whether or not the boom and bust cycle from memory is over or maybe it could be starting

all over again. You never know Christina. Christina, thank you very much.

All right, still ahead. Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Roger Ferguson. He's here to tell us

what he's expecting from next week's Fed meeting, and as we head out, we want to mention

Caesar shares they have reopened as Julia mentioned just a short time ago. Right now those shares

are spiking. They're up over 13 percent. Closing bell, we'll be right back.

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Welcome back to Closing Bell. We're getting some breaking news on the private credit front.

Let's get to our Leslie Picker for that. Leslie. Hey, Frank, yeah, this involves a

firm called Cliffwater, which operates a flagship private credit fund, and I'm told via a person

familiar with the matter that about 14 percent of shares were requested by its investors to be

redeemed. The firm did capitol purchases at about 7 percent, this was earlier reported by Bloomberg.

This Cliffwater is a name that you may not have heard of as recently as a month or two ago,

but it's recently been in the news. It was a firm that was the subject of an investor letter that

was passed around as being potentially the canary and the coal mine is according to rubric capital

for the private credit crisis. It was also a firm that was cited in an interview that we did

a few days ago with Boa's Weinstein of Sabah Capital, where he expected that redemption rate to be

somewhere between 10 and 20 percent, and here it is coming in at 14 percent. One of his big

concerns was that they operated, and this is not the majority of their businesses, but a minority

of their businesses should have kind of a fund of fund structure where they're invested in funds,

which are make these redemption dynamics more challenging. And so that's something that he called

out as being, you know, something to watch, something that they're watching closely,

and that is part of the reason I would suspect that you're seeing such a high percentage

of shares being requested to be redeemed higher than many of the peers that we've been covering,

whether it's at Blackstones, Becred, or BlackRock, HPS, 14 percent is a higher redemption rate than

many of the other funds that we've seen. And again, across the board, many of these funds have

been higher than their typical 5 percent redemption cap for a quarterly basis. So again,

the latest name to watch, Cliffwater here, 14 percent redemption rate in the first quarter of

ring. All right, Leslie Picker with the very latest on the private credit space, Leslie, thank

you very much. All right, all eyes are firmly on the Fed ahead of their all-important meeting next

week here to discuss that and much more. Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson,

Roger, good afternoon, good to see you. Following that CPI report, just give us your take on what

you're expecting next week. I'm looking at the CME Fedwatch tool, almost certainly a pause,

according to investors that are weighing in on there. What's your view?

I think the investors have it right. I think next week is almost certainly a pause.

With three reasons, first, the Fed at its most recent set of statements suggest

it very much a way to see at it too. Secondly, I'd say the data that have come in have not

tilt the scale dramatically when they've been important, but not decisive. The CPI number that

came out this morning was roughly as expected. I wouldn't give anyone a great deal of comfort that

inflation is pooling, but no one's a given one a great deal of anxiety and inflation is picking up.

And some of the earlier data, I think they're looking at the labor market. We had two very

different reports over the last couple of months, one suggesting trends in labor market and

another one suggesting weakness. I think all of this, really, when you put it all together,

is moving sideways, and I think it leaves a Fed where it was before, which is what you see.

You know, Roger, I want to push back respectfully on this one. You say nobody's worried about

inflation ticking up. I'm looking at core CPI coming at 2.5%, and that's minus energy, which we

know has been volatile, and also food prices. Isn't the expectation that inflation is going to be

higher a month from now just due to the oil shock? Absolutely. Let's try to parse that a little bit.

We're absolutely right that the core CPI is 2.5. In fact, to be fair, there are four piece

of eaves, probably, you know, 2.9 maybe round it, but we're also right. Inflation is more likely to

despite the further oil and energy prices. All that is a clear statement. The question on the Fed

is, click on it with a strike on oil prices. How do you think about that? Well, many people

say that, including many Fed automakers, that an oil spike is going to be, quote, stag evolutionary.

So, rise in inflation, hopefully, in the temporary drain of consumers, it will be to purchase

other things, so maybe a bit stagnationary. So, you're right to say, inflation is likely going

to rise a bit higher. The core question on the main question is, is that a temporary recognition

of oil price shock was estimated that builds into inflation expectations for a longer term

inflation, which would force the Fed to move, I think, to tighten further. You know, Roger,

we spent a lot of time talking about investor sentiment. I know you're not on the FOMC, but

as an outsider looking at it, what do you think the sentiment is? Obviously, we're waiting for

the Supreme Court to make a whirling on Lisa Cook. At the same time, we have Kevin Warsh,

his nomination being blocked by Tom Tillis, who at the same time says he's very impressed by him,

and we've got to remember, this is a new Fed chair coming in on a board that's still going to have

the former Fed chair, when Kevin Warsh, hypothetically, is actually confirmed. So, I mean,

as an outsider looking in, how would you describe just the thought process going on with the Fed?

I think the thought process is trying to bifurcate things.

The job number one is to do a mandate, you know, low-estable prices,

a full employment, and that is tricky enough. They've cut through times, you saw some

descents there, and so you have a group of policy makers that have innovated and collectively

are working through your challenging circumstance. That's got to be job number one, and because

they're only human beings, they also recognize that there's this political dynamic going on.

Some of all of which, I think, they're aligned around the notion of which made sure the Fed

contingently independent, you know, so as a whole, Lisa, good question, and everyone thinks about

independence. I think the committee and the board is a whole recognizing the importance of the

Fed as an infinite central buyer, central buyer, and then the question of leadership tied up

and so a question of independence. So, if I were to remember the approach, see, I read a

attempting to segment, I think, there's a policy creeping, challenging enough, let's get that

right, and then let's all make sure that we maintain the independence of the Fed, and, you know,

thank goodness if we've been the Senate who are really focused on that, because they're about to

make some very important decisions about the leadership. All right, Fed decision, one week from

today, Roger Ferguson. Thank you so much for being here with us. All right, coming up next,

we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. Christina Parts and Eveless is

standing by with that. Well, we have a soup and snacks, and I'm really sinking to low,

not seeing it more than two decades, a cloud company surging on a $2 billion in video bet,

and a pizza chain, maybe going private. Details next. Just under 12 minutes,

is it the closing bell? Let's get back to our Christina Parts and Eveless for a look at some key

stocks to watch, Christina. We got to start our shares of Campbell right now, because they're dropping

about 6% almost 7% after its latest earnings. Revenue and full year guidance just missed estimates.

Campbell's snack business actually fell by 6% during the quarter, and US soup sales actually

declined 4%, specifically as lower income consumers just cut back on spending,

stock trading at lows we haven't seen since 2003. Meantime, nebius shares. You can see moving the

opposite direction up about 15% after NVIDIA announced a $2 billion investment as part of the deal,

the companies will collaborate. They already do what they're going to be extending that

partnership on AI infrastructure deployment, fleet management, inference, and AI factory design,

and that development coming a week after NVIDIA announced $2 billion investments in other companies,

like Lumeintem and Coherent, just spending a lot lately. Last but not least shares of Papa John's

surging, 19% on a Wall Street Journal report that the pizza chain is reviewing a bid to go private

from a earth capital management, a Quattari backed investment fund, according to the report the deal

would value Papa John's at roughly $1.5 billion dollars. That's it? I thought you'd have some

commentary. Do you like Papa John? In my mind, I wanted to ask you, you didn't seem like a Papa John's

maybe you're more of like a domino's guy, but I shouldn't joke ground or anything. I'm not

really sure what the distinction is between those two. I've been to Canada a few times. You have

your own pizza chain up there and pizza I think it is, not bad. Not bad. Yes, we have a lot of

chains up in Canada that have nothing to do with America. Okay, fair point, fair point. Well,

Papa John shares spike right now. Christina Prats and Evelyn, you're more of a pizza hot

kind of person. All right, coming up next. What's happening with driving? I'm leaving it there.

What's happening with driving shares of Uber and Tesla hired today? You can see both are up

over 2% the market zone coming up next. And we are now in the closing build market zone. Mike

Santolian, Wilmington Trust, Megan Shoe, they're here to break down these crucial moments of the

trading day plus to your borst in watching shares of Uber and Phil LaVogue tracking the action in

Tesla. Mike, I'm going to kick things off with you. Look at it oil right now. Oil pretty close

to its highs of the trading session so far. We haven't seen it decline despite that historic

release. What does that say about the oil market right now and even the stock market, all the major

indices lower? I mean, mostly what it says, obviously, Frank, is nobody quite knows exactly what

the next turn in this story is. How long we're going to have these disruptions? I will say,

though, this much of a move in crude right now, four bucks. There was a time way back last week

when that was a big daily move. Right now, it's actually still kind of range bound relative to where

we've been the last few days. I think that partially explains why the equity market, while it's

been restrained by crude going up, it's not necessarily been really under a tremendous amount

of pressure. Now, part of that is the narrow strength in semis and some of the other AI hardware

names. It's still sort of working hard to tread water as the way I would explain it. The S&P 500

is still around these levels that were the bottom end of the range for a few weeks actually before

the Iran invasion. So I do think the market's on a bit of a short leash. Banks have not been

cooperating very well, but nothing quite is creating that real break lower to where we were

at the lows on Sunday and Monday. All right, Mike Santoli, we see you coming up on OT in just a bit.

Thank you very much. All right, we want to send things over to Julia Borsten for a check on Uber,

Julia. Well, Frank, shares of Uber popping today on a deal with Amazon's driverless car

company called Zooks. You see those Uber shares of 3%. Now, Zooks are going to be making its vehicles

available on the Uber app in Las Vegas starting this summer, followed by Los Angeles next year.

Now, this deal marks Zooks' first tie-up with a third-party platform, and it underscores Uber's

confidence that its app is the best way for autonomous companies to grow. Something Uber CEO

Dara Costa Shahi most recently spoke about on the company's last earnings call. Uber also has

a partnership with Alphabets Waymo to offer rides in Austin, Phoenix, and Atlanta. Now, Amazon,

which acquired Zooks in 2020, is playing catch-up with Waymo, which said last month,

it's now operating 400,000 weekly rides across six U.S. cities. Zooks is still testing in most of

its major markets, Frank. Julia, thank you very much. Julia Borsten, now we're going to go over to

fill the bow for a look at Tesla fill. Frank, Tesla shares moving a little bit higher after strong

numbers out of China. Take a look at shares of Tesla. The monthly sales for February and China

up 91% compared to February last year. Keep in mind, it was a really low result last year. So,

there's a lot of lumpiness in the first three months of the year. February overall in China

for all brands, down 15%, domestic continues to be under pressure for a variety of reasons,

but their exports, nothing slowing that down, up 58% year over years. And finally,

take a look at Gile and BYD. Why are we showing you this? For the first two months of this year,

in China, Gile outsold BYD. Frank, I'll send it back to you.

All right, our fill the bow, fill. Thank you very much. We want to bring in Megan Shua,

warmings and trust. Megan, thank you so much for being here. Just kind of looking right now,

and I said earlier, all the major indices are down. They're off their lows. The Dow and the S&PR

and the Red and Aztecs just kind of hold on to gains. A big part of that seems to be more

confidence in technology after oral core earnings. Do you see more investors gaining more confidence

when it comes to the tech trade after this? Yeah, I think what we've seen to start the year was a

rotation out of tech that was continuing from the fourth quarter of last year. And now it is comforting

to see some of that, basically a rotation of capital, not capital coming out of the market.

And I think we've continued to think that some of the concerns around the technology sector

are a bit overdone. The buildup of CAPEX and debt as well as disruption risk. We see as

manageable and are still optimistic long-term on that part of the market. But I think broadly

speaking, this is a really tough market to be trading in. A lot of headline risk, a lot of

potential volatility, but overall, I think to see the market treading water, as Mike Santoly said,

as well as the dollar protecting gold, acting as a safe haven. It seems like a pretty orderly market.

So, Megan, I want to ask you a question. I've been asking other people throughout the day.

How do you view the fact that the S&P is only down about 1.5% since this conflict started?

We had a guest on earlier, Kevin Gordon from Schwab. He said the market is sanguine. I think

another word couldn't be overconfident. Every trader I talk to seems to believe this is going to be

resolved in a few weeks. Do you share that opinion and what happens if it doesn't resolve itself in a

few weeks to this market? Yeah, I mean the oil futures curve is definitely suggesting that this

will be resolved in a matter of weeks or months, not not last for a year or more. I think that

is a risk that this drags on a bit longer. But historically, what we've seen in the data is that

geopolitical events add short-term volatility. The market moves higher as long as the overall

economic story remains intact. I think what's important in that all of that historical analysis,

though, is to recognize that there's always macro factors that hold in on top of it.

Today, I think the most important macro factor is the labor market, what happens with the Fed,

and there I think it's still, the jury is still out in terms of the strength of the labor market.

But ultimately, the duration of this could, the longer it lasts. Obviously, there's a risk that

it spills over more to the consumer, probably more as a disinflationary impact, actually, and a

hit-to-grove more than a hit-to-inflation. Magnitude from women to trust. Thank you so much for

being here. We really appreciate you. As I mentioned, we're seeing a bit of a mixed action when

it comes to the major indices. The mass dexter is holding on to some gains. The S&D fraction

lowers the value of it as well. Also, it can be oil-marked right now. I'm just taking a look,

oil is up about five and a half percent, and that's going to do it. It's closing down. That's going

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