Closing Bell: Stocks Bounce to Start the Week 3/16/26

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Well, welcome to Close and Bell, I'm John.

For Jim Prescott, Wapner, and we are live from post-9

as the New York Stock Exchange.

This make or break our start to the bounce in stock

says oil pulls back from 100 bucks a barrel.

Here's the scorecard with 60 minutes to go

in the trading day.

Tech is leading the way.

You can see the NASDAQ is up about 1.4%.

The Dow is higher by more than 400 points,

and the S&P is up a percent.

The Russell doing quite well also hanging in there with the NASDAQ

up more than 1.3.

Now, as Nvidia's annual AI conference gets underway in California,

we're also going to have a live report on that coming up.

Also, all of the Mag 7 stocks, not just Nvidia,

are in the green.

You can see Meta there up better than 2%

close to 2.5.

Meantime, Staples, Materials, Energy,

are the worst performing sectors.

All of this comes to be continued to follow

the latest developments out of the Middle East.

And for that, let's get straight to our Aiman jobbers

live in Washington with more, Aiman.

John, we heard from the President of the United States

at the White House earlier today.

This was at an unrelated event

that was scheduled for a meeting of the board of directors

of the Kennedy Center.

The President has been very involved in the decorations

and the artists and the board membership there.

He brought the press in to that meeting

and gave them a sense of where he thinks things are

in terms of the war in Iran.

Here's what he said in terms of the straight-up hormones.

And we don't have the soundbite.

What the President did say, John, I'm just going to read you the transcript.

He said, we're hammering their capacity to threaten

commercial shipping in the state of Hormuz

with more than 30 mine-laying ships destroyed.

He said, we hit to the best of our knowledge

all of their mine-laying ships.

And now they can put them on other types of ships we don't know

and we don't know of any that have been dropped in.

So the President saying the U.S.

military campaign has been extraordinarily successful

against the mine-laying ships and that the United States

doesn't know of any actual mines that have been laid

in the Persian Gulf.

So one of the questions here, of course, is

when is the Gulf going to be reopened?

The President had two messages on that.

One is that he has known for a long time

that the Gulf was a strategic linchpin

and that could be threatened.

And the second is that he wants foreign military help

from China, from France, from the UK and others

to help send naval shipping to reopen

the Strait of Hormuz, the President's suggesting

that some of those countries have agreed to send military aid.

He did not say which one.

Said he doesn't want to name them.

But he's frustrated with those countries who have not.

John, back over to you.

Amin, step back question for you.

Since you've got your finger on the Pulse of Washington,

there are a lot of questions about war powers

and where this Trump administration action

in Iran fits in there.

The President does say this is going well,

but how many rumblings are there around pressure

to end this sooner than the President might want?

Yeah, I mean, the big pressure point

is one that you see on our air all day long, right?

The stock market and the price of oil.

As long as those are within manageable bounds,

I think you won't see a big outcry

up on Capitol Hill from Republicans,

which is where the President's base of support is.

As you watch the stock market today,

I mean, we're in the green on all the major markets right now.

Oil is below 100.

That's maybe an acceptable range for the administration.

We saw Secretary Besson in Paris this morning talking

with Brian saying, you know, this is the kind of thing

that we expected.

It's going to last for a couple more weeks,

but it's bearable.

So as long as you see that,

I don't think you're going to see any major political

defections from Republicans up on Capitol Hill.

All right, so many factors, Amin.

Thank you.

Now, let's get over to Pipa Stevens for a look at how all of this

is impacting that oil trade we're just talking about.

Pipa, Hey, John, so oil is retreating today

with some ships moving through the strait of Hormuz

and Treasury Secretary Scott Besson telling our Brian Sullivan

the US has led Iranian ships through to quote,

supply the rest of the world.

Now, in addition to Iranian oil,

energy firm Kepler estimates five vessels

move through the waterway over the weekend.

And CIBC Private Walls Rebecca Babin said,

it offers the market a degree of relief

that the worst-case scenario may be avoided,

but there are still so many unknowns here.

Now, the energy sector is coming off a record 12 straight weeks of gains,

but it's vastly trailing oil's performance since the war began.

And that is a reversal from what we saw prior to the war

when the equities were outperforming the underlying commodity.

Now, the sector has increasingly decoupled from the price of oil

thanks in part to a shift in the sector's makeup

with midstream and gas-focused drillers

taking on a greater share of the sector's composition.

There's also the fact that the futures curve drops off sharply

in coming months, meaning investors don't see a windfall

for drillers in the back half of the year.

John?

All right.

Pippa Stevens, thank you.

Now let's bring in our panel.

Invest goes Brian Levin, Bartlett's Holly Makosa,

a Mazoka, sorry.

Guys, welcome.

Brian, I think you've tended to say that peak uncertainty

is a really good time to buy, but policy uncertainty.

With what we see happening now in Iran,

besides everything else with the disruptions around software,

are we at one of those moments?

Can we buy?

Part to say if we're exactly at peak uncertainty,

although I suspect we will get there

within a shorter time horizon than some may suspect.

Look, there's challenges here,

but ultimately, we came into this with a relatively good economy

with inflation, relatively contained economic activity,

picking up.

And so you have a good backdrop.

The challenge is how long does it persist?

And so if, in fact, last week was the peak

in the geopolitical risk index, then yeah,

the next 12 months, historically,

history would suggest should be good for stocks.

I don't think any of us know if that's the actual peak,

but I suspect we probably will be getting there sooner

rather than later if last week wasn't it.

Holly, any of this story you off of your 2026 playbook?

We are recognizing that risks to that growth story

are mounting.

And one item that is new since the beginning of March

is some of the revisions in the data that's coming in.

So to Brian's point, we came into this year

with a pretty strong foundation,

but especially the labor market has weakened pretty significantly.

So that's the big question for investors right now

is just being realistic that the overall risks

to that continued growth story are higher today

than they were just a few weeks ago.

So Brian, how much do rates matter

and how much of that rate picture for stocks

is being driven by questions about the labor market?

We got some numbers recently that raised some concerns there

versus, okay, now we got this oil shock

which could be inflationary if it lasts longer.

Of course, the administration is saying it won't last too long.

So here's the good news.

The good news is the market came into the year

expecting two to three rate cuts.

We've now basically priced that out of the market

without substantial disruption to the S&P 500 market

down overall what, four, five percent.

So we've already priced that out.

My expectation, I mean, prior to the war,

the 10 year rate was falling below four,

had fallen below four percent.

I mean, that's Holly's point about a weakness

in economic activity.

And so my perspective on that is that weakness

in economic activity is actually going to be good for equities

because the federal reserve is going to lower interest rates

and steep in the U.S. Treasury yield curve.

So that was the view.

The market has now priced it out.

But if you look at the way the market's been behaving

since the start of this conflict,

you have some things going in the opposite direction

of what you want, but not meaningfully.

Credit spreads out a little bit.

Inflation expectations up a bit.

The forward curve on oil up, but still, you know,

still down in 12 months.

And then finally, you know that the dollar has strengthened,

but not meaningfully.

So all of that suggests some challenges,

but none of it is pointing towards end of cycle.

It's a market that continues to believe

we will get back on the path that we were on

really just what, 16 calendar days ago.

Or Hollyo, we jump it on a rickety bridge

and thinking, oh, it's held well so far,

but eventually one of these things is going to break through.

I mean, how do you handle this uncertainty in a portfolio?

How do you recommend that investors rebalance

during a time like this?

Yeah, this is where it's really important

to separate the headlines from the underlying data.

And when we look at where we are,

we recognize that corporations have a runway

to continue to do pretty well.

Earnings expectations for the remainder of the year

have held up well during this period of conflict.

And a lot of that comes down to this expectation

that you can see productivity from AI support margins

and you can see opportunities for continued investment

and capital expenditures.

However, we're not seeing the expectation

that labor will recover in a meaningful and healthy way.

And some of these headlines are giving consumers concern

about what their jobs mean for them

and how much stability is there.

So we're watching closely how the consumer reacts

to all of this.

It's not just the real dollars and cents

they're spending on oil.

It's how they feel about the dollars and cents

that they're spending at the gas pump,

that they're spending on healthcare,

that they're spending on insurance.

And seeing if that consumer sentiment slip

spills over into realized consumer spending declines.

And so Brian, what's assuming the Fed

doesn't move one way or the other?

What's the most important color to hear out of the Fed

for stocks right now?

And for, I don't know whether it's sentiment

or what's going to happen as far as pricing in some movement

one way or the other for the rest of the year?

Yeah, I think the Fed will have to signal

that they are still open to rate cuts

that they're balancing the risks in the economy right now.

Challenges have emerged that were unsuspected.

Similar to what we saw last April with Liberation Day

in both instances, the Federal Reserve was ready

to lower rates to what we would view

as a more neutral rate, around 3%.

And in both instances, they've been stopped

because of policy decisions that were made.

The Fed's going to continue to be data dependent

as long as inflation expectations remain contained.

Ultimately, I think they will get back on this easing path

to create a more normalized yield curve.

So in some ways, as long as inflation expectations

remain contained, then weak economic data

does not necessarily have to be bad for the market.

A weak economic data can bring forward Fed rate cuts

which tend to be supportive of multiples.

Speaking of the Fed, Holly, how much finally does it matter

whether it's Warsh or not leading the Fed this summer?

Warsh isn't as dovish as what the market,

I think, originally expected.

There's this expectation that he has the ultimate control

and we have to recognize the Fed is a huge organization

with many governors who have lots of voices.

And as Brian said, lots of data behind them.

So this really comes down to the idea of the Fed being

data dependent looking ahead at what's coming down the pipe.

And we just hope that they make sure

that they are reacting pretty quickly

versus waiting for some of these revisions

to come through that show more weakness along the way.

But it is a time where you can't rely just on that Fed put.

You have to make sure that there's a level of defensiveness

in the portfolio and a level of quality

that can hold you through to the other side.

All right, solid advice, Holly, Brian, thank you.

Thank you.

Now in video, CEO Jensen Wong giving the keynote address

at the company's GTC event in California.

Christina Parks and Nevilleis is there,

joins us with the latest, Christina.

Dad, infrastructure investments.

Yeah, in video giving stockholders exactly what they wanted

just now, Jensen Wong, just finished saying

that they're $500 billion backlog of Blackwell

and Ruben products that they gave about five months ago

is now being bumped up to $1 trillion of backlog through 2027.

The share price was holding steady at about 2%

of 90 and climbing roughly up about 4%.

That was the big newsmaker so far.

Aside from that big $1 trillion number,

there's been a parade of partnership callouts,

Dell, Palantir, CoreWeep, Oracle.

You saw IBM, Google Synopsis,

and IBM shares actually moved briefly on the mention.

But there hasn't been any new product details

per se just yet.

CEO Jensen Wong also expanding his telecom push,

T-Mobile now joining Nokia and using Nvidia GPUs

to power Edge AI as part of its 6G build out.

And be a first announce the Nokia partnership just last fall.

That's when you saw that share price really skyrocket.

Intel separately also put out a press release

saying it's Zian processors.

Those are CPUs, we'll be in Nvidia's new Ruben rack systems.

We're worth noting though that Intel has been the host CPU

in Nvidia's system since Blackwell.

So it's since its previous generation.

So this is an existing relationship just caring for.

Not necessarily a new one and that's why Intel shares

aren't really moving on this news.

The market overall though was waiting for this $500 billion

backlog order to be updated.

It has been updated.

And then we're still waiting for details

on the new chip Jensen has teased that he will talk about

the CEO, which will involve rock technology.

So just memory on the chips.

We're still waiting to hear about that, John.

All right, that's quite a bit, but I wonder.

And this is somewhat subjective kind of color wise.

For a while there, every company Jensen mentioned

that was public seemed to get some kind of a bump.

Is that bump effect still seen with all the volatility?

We're also seeing a market?

John, whenever I write scripts for CNBC,

I called it the mightest touch of Nvidia.

And unfortunately, it hasn't necessarily

been the case over the last several months.

With the exception of that investment in a light LITE ticker

as well as coherent, those two names really popped up.

But today he just mentioned dozens of companies.

Are you seeing all of these share prices just soar

and all of the markets go up 10-fold just

within the last 30 minutes or so?

Not really, right?

Yeah, a lot of companies you're dealing with,

Luminum, is the one that you were looking for.

I looked it up for you since you gave me the ticker.

Sorry, I blanked.

I blanked.

I got you.

The ticker gets us there.

Tina, thanks.

Now let's bring in a couple of Nvidia shareholders,

Doug Clinton of Intelligent Alpha and CNBC contributor,

Bryn Talkington, a requisite capital management.

Welcome, Doug.

Over the past 12 months, a lot of things

been going on in the markets that we haven't seen before.

So can LLMs still figure things out?

Or are they just flying by?

I think they can figure things out, John Nambias,

because at Intelligent Alpha, we do use

the large language models to do stock analysis

and portfolio management for us.

I think we've had a good start to the year

with our GPT ETF.

What we do, and I think what we've been benefiting from

that the broader industry is getting excited about,

is really creating agents that go out

and perform specific tasks.

We look at macro environment.

We look at specific micro components to stocks.

And we create a thesis just like a human investment team

and ultimately I think we're going to see productivity

like we have in Intelligent Alpha,

go to many other industries as well.

So what's that telling you about Nvidia right now?

We own Nvidia, it's one of our top holdings.

Are you adding more or are you shedding it?

We've been consistently, I'd say, owning it.

Our models have liked it really for the last year

and a half at this point.

And the models also do like some other infrastructure players.

I tell you this though, what's interesting in my opinion

is the models have actually softened a little bit

on the software trade.

I think the models, our models at least thought.

We were kind of bottoming.

Software has been terrible this year.

Everybody knows that.

Feels like it's due for a reversion.

We've gotten a little bit right now,

but our models are now saying this might be it.

That might be it, like we're not going to go up more

or the reversion might slow down from here.

I think is what our models think.

And if you look long-term, John,

I think this is the question for software.

Are the terminal multiples, can we trust in them?

Our models are saying it's getting harder and harder.

Brent, this trillion dollar backlog news out of NVIDIA,

it's kind of hard to wrap your mind around a backlog that big.

Is that just expected at this point?

Or does it change the way you look at NVIDIA?

Let me try to contextualize a trillion dollars from a billion.

You think about it.

A billion seconds is 32 years.

A trillion seconds is roughly 32,000 years.

So I don't feel that's priced in, right?

This is such a big amount of money.

And I think what you asked Doug what happened the last year.

Well, I mean, NVIDIA was at 51% over the last year.

It's at a wonderful year.

I do think from the stock perspective, $200 feels like

like outer earth orbit, it just can't get past it.

I think ultimately will.

But still I think for investors like myself,

that $200 is where we continue to sell calls against it.

But to me, what's so incredible is NVIDIA just keeps

cannibalizing on their own products.

And that's why they're so hard to catch up with.

Because while Vera Rubens getting ramped up,

Blackwell is out there, but Vera Rubens

is going to cannibalize Blackwell.

But that's what NVIDIA and Jensen and his team

have been so masterful is just being two steps ahead

of their own products by continuing

to have best and breed products, which

continue to have such a strong motor on the company.

Brin, this reminds me of Apple years ago

when it first hit a trillion dollar market cap

and people were saying, oh, what it would take to get to Tucha,

the iPhone's not going to get in there.

They got to get another iPhone, the car, or whatever.

And actually, they didn't need to do that.

How psychologically do investors have

to shift their idea of what's possible when

we tend to look at what's possible based

on what's happened before?

I think that we continue to get what's possible by the spending

of meta by the sovereign wealth, spending by Google,

by everybody except Apple, by the way.

And as long as that's spending, that trajectory's just getting bigger.

While we're waiting to see actually what they're spending all this money for,

I'm not exactly sure.

Most of that money goes to NVIDIA, right?

And so I just think this is continue going to be a really strong name.

It's one of the reasons why earnings growth

are expected to grow 26% this year is really

NVIDIA and Broadcom are driving the vast majority of those returns.

Doug, how quickly can your models adjust?

You've got this LLM Driven Investment Committee,

but we've got headlines coming in fast and furious

about straight-of-war mues, about alliances

that we used to be able to rely on economically,

that are now less certain, how are the data sources

and to what degree do you need to put your thumb on the scale a little bit

and say, all right, pay a little bit more or less attention to that.

We try not to really put our thumb on the scale.

One of the lessons we've learned, John,

building this company over the last couple of years,

is trust the models.

Oftentimes when I tried to think about what would I put my thumb

on the scale to influence,

a lot of times I end up being wrong.

And so what the models really do well is they can consume more information

than any human can, they can process all that information

and make connections and so to answer your question.

It can pull in information real-time or we can say,

look, let's only look at information every week or every month.

Sometimes you don't need to look at information every day.

And as a human, I actually think,

that's the way humans should probably think about markets.

And in some cases, it's actually good for AI to do that too.

All right, Doug, Brynn, thank you.

And now a quick programming note, do not miss Jim Kramer's interview

with Nvidia CEO, Jensen Huang.

That is tomorrow, we've got a 10 AM live from GTC on Squalking Street.

And more, you can expect on 6 PM Eastern's mad money.

Now let's end it over to Sima Modi for a look at the biggest names

moving into the closed.

Hey, John Sandisk shares are leading the S&P today

on what has been a really strong day for memory stocks,

micron announcing plans earlier,

confirming plans to build a second manufacturing site in Taiwan,

plus a positive note from RBC Capital reiterating what they say will be

strong demand for memory with AI tailwind continuing into 2027.

That stock up 8%.

Take a look at Peloton, those shares are rising by around 4%.

As the company said, it's launching bikes and treadmills,

specifically for Jim's branching out of its at home fitness

as part of its new commercial strategy.

The stock has declined about 80% since its pandemic highs,

as the company has struggled with sluggish sales.

Meantime, Dollar Tree shares are gaining despite the retailer reporting

mixed quarterly results.

It also issued cautious guidance for the full year.

But CEO Mike Creeden, he was positive when asked about sales

tied to Easter weekend, looking at the stock on track for its best day

since June.

John.

All right.

Seema, thank you.

We're just getting started.

I'm looking at the major indices up around a 1% maybe a little bit more

across the board.

But up next, Cloud Company Nevious is surging thanks to a deal with one big

tech company.

We've got the details.

And later, airline stocks are flying higher.

We're going to tell you what's sending that sector soaring.

And we're live from the New York Stock Exchange,

you're watching Closing Bell on CNBC.

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Navier shares are soaring up more than 16% after announcing a big deal with meta.

Julia Borsten is with us with the details.

Julia, what are they doing?

Hey, John.

Well, meta shares are also higher on two pieces of news.

First, about meta's investment in AI.

And second, about how AI could help it cut costs.

Meta shares are bouncing back after they dropped on Friday.

On concerns about its new AI model, which hasn't launched yet.

Meta is signing a long-term agreement with Nebius, which is a Dutch cloud computing company.

Meta is now committed to spending up to $27 billion with Nebius, including capacity for one

of the first large-scale deployments of NVIDIA's latest AI chips.

This comes as analysts celebrate a Reuters report that meta is considering cutting as much

as 20% of its workforce, which JP Morgan estimates would result in the company saving

as much as $6.5 billion annually.

Bank of America is saying this report of head count cuts, quote, highlights significant

potential AI cost benefits across the sector, saying we think meta has room to cut further,

given outsized investments in both AI and infrastructure, as well as reality with labs.

Now, meta does say this Reuters report is a speculative report about theoretical approaches,

but John, it certainly speaks to the opportunity that meta might be creating to have AI enable

it to do more with less.

Julia, isn't that yet the idea that they're able to replace people with AI, or are they just

trying to create the room on the balance sheet by cutting now in the hopes that AI will

turn up these productivity enhancements later?

Well, look, they've already talked a lot.

We've heard from Mark Zuckerberg, as well as from other executives, that now one engineer

with these AI tools can do the work of a team of engineers.

So they've already talked about how there are these efficiencies, and each great engineer

can do more with these new tools.

They've also talked about how they're specifically developing tools for internal use to accelerate

their ability to produce new products or iterate, whether it's around AI or other things.

But I do think there is this question of maybe they overhired.

There's certainly been a lot of reporting about how they are paying some of these engineers

incredibly high paychecks, and which would come with an expectation that they're able to do a lot.

But as their investment shifts into AI infrastructure costs, like this nebbiast deal,

you have to wonder whether or not this is a great way to save six and a half billion dollars

by eliminating some of those very human costs of all these employees.

So we'll see what the end of deciding.

We do have to note that this report is that they are considering doing these layoffs.

It seems like it hasn't been officially decided yet.

Yeah, that trillion dollar backlog for NVIDIA has to come from somewhere.

It seems Julia Borsten, thank you.

Well, still ahead, a critical Fed decision on tap this week, former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher

is going to tell us what he's expecting.

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Men are struggling with their mental health

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Welcome back to Closing Bell, us in 25 minutes.

Left till that ballot, investors are awaiting Wednesday's critical Fed decision today.

Our Steve Leesman here with a look at what to expect,

and what could be next for Chair Powell after Friday is ruined, Steve.

Good questions, John.

Jeanine Pierre, the U.S. Attorney for Washington, bowing to continue the fight against Fed Chair Powell after a judge quashed two subpoenas

she saw in a criminal probe of whether Powell lied to Congress and testimony about the Fed's building renovations

and cost overruns charges of Powell's denied.

Her actions create the potential for Fed Chair Powell's term to extend after it officially ends on May 15th.

Her announcement came despite findings by U.S. District Court Judge that, quote,

there is abundant evidence that the subpoena is dominant, if not sole purpose,

is to harass and press your Powell either to yield to the President,

or to resign and make way for a Fed Chair who will.

Purify the motion to reconsider today and also promise a separate appeal,

both of which will take time, and even more time, if she wins.

Senator Tom Tills has vowed to hold up President Trump's nominee, Kevin Worsh's Chair,

while the criminal case is pending.

Now odds on how she put the chance that Worsh is approved by May at 62%.

So that's a 30% chance it doesn't happen by then.

Most likely outcome would be that the board votes Powell as Chair Pro Tem, if his term ends,

and that's happened once before with Powell and once with former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan.

Markets looking for a Fed pause this week in almost the entire year,

with only a cut marginally priced in for December.

That is 66% pretty good odds, but not entire Worsh will likely be in place.

For that December meeting, but it's an open question whether he makes it for June, John.

It's like a recess appointment, I guess.

Now this...

Well technically, John, that's a joke, but it's not a joke,

because there's a lot of debate about this, that maybe President Trump could make a recess appointment,

except Congress doesn't do recess anymore.

So he can't do that, but he maybe could do that.

No, but I mean the Fed can keep Powell in place,

because there's somebody who's not able to be put into place,

and they can vote to have him remain.

Now how much does this complicate, if at all, the likelihood that Powell continues on the Fed,

after he's Chair, not just officially, but even the period in between,

when he's officially supposed to be done and Worsh would start?

So that's a good question.

Let me just make sure viewers understand that the Fed Chair wears essentially three hats.

He's Chair of the Board of Governors, he's Chair of the Federal Marguer Committee,

and he also is a Governor of the Board.

So his term as Chair ends May 15th, his term as a Governor runs through 2028,

and he could decide to stay on, but the existence of the criminal case looks like it might be one of the reasons he might choose to stay on here.

If the criminal case is still pending.

Yeah, Steve Lisman.

Thank you.

Pleasure, John.

Let's talk more about this with former Dallas Fed President and Senior Advisor with Jeffries Financial Group, Richard Fisher.

Let's start with this Powell situation.

I mean, if you wanted to get him out, then fighting in this way with this case doesn't seem to be the way to do it,

but if you want to hurt him, I'm confused.

What do you think is going to happen here? Have you ever seen anything like this?

Well, John, first of all, there is an old saying here in Texas that you don't open a can of worms unless you're going to go fast fishing.

Piro is open to can of worms, and I think the administration would like to get washed in there,

but there's no question the Finance and Banking Committee would like to do the same,

but they've made it very clear until this is cleared up and finished,

they're not going to move and confirm wash.

So I want to correct Steve on one thing, which is always risky to do, because I think Steve's omniscient.

And that is that the Fed chairman of the Federal Reserve is not necessarily the FOMC chairman.

The FOMC elects their chairman at the beginning of each year, usually in January.

And they elected Powell to chair the FOMC.

Now, he could continue on.

It's not chairman, let's say this goes on, and Piro keeps stirring a fire.

He could be the chairman of the FOMC for a little bit longer,

and it would almost be his duty to do so until wash takes place and gets elected to be chairman of the FOMC.

Again, the chairman of the Fed is not necessarily the chairman of the FOMC.

That individual is elected by the committee at the beginning of each year.

J. Powell is elected in January for the year, and we'll have to see what happens with this case,

and whether or not wash can be confirmed on a timely basis.

Hard to keep track of all those haps.

Okay, now stepping back to what's actually happening in the macro picture here, what's your take?

What is this oil shocks likely impact on price stability?

I mean, how long would history suggest that this war in Iran can go on before higher oil prices ripple through economies in, let's say, a non-transitory, more lasting way?

Well, you had Dan Yerganon earlier in one of these shows.

There's nobody more experts than Dan, and he was not certain.

He can't tell, and I would imagine that the FOMC is going to feel the same way.

If this goes on for a long time, it affects not only the price of gasoline, but fertilizer and urea and foodstuffs and so on.

So my guess is that this meeting, they will not move. I agree with the market's assessment.

And that Powell will have to spend his time during a presser explaining that there's just a lot of uncertainty here,

and decision making under conditions of uncertainty is not possible.

So to what extent, over time, is the effect of higher oil prices kind of like a tariff?

Well, it's a tax on people to consume gasoline and fertilizer and foodstuffs, et cetera, to grow food.

I mean, anything that grows or has to move from one place to another, right?

Yeah, but not, you know, in plastics, for example, and a lot of inputs that would point out in your show before,

semi-conductors and so on. So we're going to have to see, let's hope that we prevail in the short term.

If this goes on longer term, if people like Dan Yerganon can't forecast a price, I certainly cannot.

And it certainly would work its way at the inflationary front.

It is true. The employment situation is probably worsening.

The total unemployment number is not that bad, but we're getting reports of companies.

You referenced earlier what is likely to happen with meta.

And we'll just have to see what kind of effects that has, and the Fed has that difficult job of balancing between fighting inflation and deflation,

and also keeping employment at its optimal point.

I'm far from an economist, but it seems to me like one of the complicated things about your job is all these things are interconnected, right?

I mean, how high the oil prices are determines what's happening with profitability with a lot of companies,

which has an influence on how many people they can afford to employ.

And of course, high energy costs influence, data center costs of operation.

It's a cost factor. Remember, companies, we invest in these companies to preserve or grow their margins.

And it's a question of what kind of cost inputs reduce their ability to grow their margins.

Tariffs are one of them. High prices are another one. Labor costs are another.

And so I think companies are really looking as uncertain as they are in the immediate future how they're going to preserve their margins.

And that's what we invest in, John. That's what counts as far as the market is concerned.

Future profits, indeed, pencils out investors, Richard Fisher, thank you.

Thank you for having me.

Up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the closed SEMA Modi standing by with that SEMA.

Hey, John, Nvidia is not the only semiconductor stock on the move this hour.

We've got the full list after this short break.

Twelve minutes to show the closing bell. Let's get back to SEMA Modi for a look at the key stocks to watch SEMA.

Hey, John, we talked about Sandisk. It's really a strong day in general for memory stocks.

Take a look at micron shares higher after confirming plans to build its second manufacturing site in Taiwan.

Separately, RBC capital markets reiterating its out-perform rating on that stock and raising its price target ahead of earnings on Wednesday.

Analysts there. They're forecasting that high bandwidth memory prices will continue to rise going into 2027.

Meantime cruise stocks broadly higher as oil prices are pulling back.

Secretary Besson confirming to CNBC that certain oil tankers have been able to travel through the Strait of Hormuz.

Carnival, Royal Caribbean, up about 2%, but still down double digits since the start of the Iran War.

And developments in Iran also sending fertilizer stocks lower, major names like CF Industries, Mosaic Down, at least 5% to 6% after spiking over the past few days.

About a third of globally traded fertilizer travels through the Strait of Hormuz.

Or these specific stocks have been sensitive to those developments, John.

Yeah, just as Richard Fisher was alluding to, SEMA, thank you.

And up next, behind Bitcoin's belts, we're going to tell you which stocks are benefiting from today's jump.

That and a lot more, and we take you inside the market zone. That's next.

7 minutes to the bell. We are now in the closing bell market zone.

Mike Santoli and Marc Santoli are here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day.

Plus, McKenzie Cigallo is tracking the action in crypto.

And Phil Lebo watching the move in airline stocks.

Mike Santoli first to use, speaking of crypto, is it me or did the Iran War break this connection Bitcoin had to the NASDAQ?

A little bit, yes. In fact, I think a couple of things going on.

One, if part of the utility is Bitcoin is actually moving money out of places where it's hard to get it out of,

maybe the utility is being reinforced, but it also fits in with this broader pattern of since the Iraq War started.

So, so far this month, everything that did poorly in the first few months before that has done well.

There's been laggards being bid. The gold over Bitcoin relationship got very stretched.

Gold has not responded much to the Iran hostilities, whereas Bitcoin has gotten a bounce.

You could look across other asset classes, other parts of the world and say, you know, non-US stocks have come in relative to US stocks.

So, I think it might be part of all of that together.

But, you know, obviously still a lot of headroom above the Bitcoin price before it starts to challenge where we were back in the fall.

All right, the connection not quite the same as it was, but Mackenzie Segales.

Let's get to you for a look at the move in crypto-connected stocks.

Yeah, John, so you got Bitcoin topping. It's 50-day moving average for the first time in two months, hovering right at that 74K level.

Bernstein, out with a note this morning, calling Bitcoin's capital base the most resilient that it's ever been.

About 60% of all Bitcoin hasn't moved in over a year.

And then roughly 14% is now locked up in ETFs, corporate treasuries, and government holdings.

And Bitcoin's biggest corporate buyer strategy keeps adding to its position.

Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin funds. They've pulled in more than $2 billion over the past three weeks, nearly wiping out all of the year-to-date outflows.

That's institutional money coming back after four straight months of redemption.

And then you've got ether outperforming Bitcoin on the day up by more than 10%, fueled by BlackRock's new stake to Ethereum ETFs, sending Tom Lee's ether proxy bit mine immersion 14% higher today alone.

And then notably, as you were just talking about with Mike, the S&P Dow and NASDAQ all posting a fresh 2026 lows last week.

But Bitcoin has rallied right through it, John.

Yeah, volatility means somebody's making money. Well, Bitcoin's not the only thing flying high.

Let's center over to fill the boat for a check on the airlines, Bill.

They're getting a bit of a bounce, John, today because of Jeff Fuel Price is coming in a bit.

But the TSA funding fight is front and center right now, especially after a weekend where we saw more delays at a number of airports.

And the airline CEOs today posted a letter, an open letter to Congress in the Washington Post, and they basically said,

look, you continue to not pay these people. You will have more delays like we have seen over the last several days and the last several weeks.

Peak Spring travel is approaching. As you take a look at the airline index, it's down 18.7% since the beginning of the Iran war.

The TSA funding fight is really not impact in the airline stocks, but the cost of Jeff Fuel is impacting the airline stocks.

And speaking of those airline stocks, again, they all were moved a little bit higher today.

We're showing you American Delta Southwest in United. Guess what, John will hear from the CEOs of all those companies.

Tomorrow at JP Morgan's Transportation Conference, likely we will get an update on Q1 guidance.

Okay, Bill, a boat. Thank you. And now as we head toward the close, let's bring in Marcy McGregor from Maryland and Bank of America, private bank.

Input costs, a challenge for sure. You've liked small caps, but what's your take right now on this environment for folks who are willing to look long term?

Is it a decent time to buy? What are the things you need clarity on?

Yeah, one of the things I always try to remember in these moments of geopolitical surprise is you tend to revert back to the trend you were in.

And that was a trend of a market problem, a strong fundamental to that.

Small caps that equal weight SMP relative to market cap weighted or NASDAQ.

There was a lot of opportunities underneath the index level because the fundamentals were so strong.

Our view for a US economy that is going to top economist estimates.

And you know, for SMP earnings growing 14% year over years still intact.

Now, of course, the big question is how long do oil prices stay high?

But so far, you know, in week three of this conflict, we have a market that is proving a lot of resilience here.

Yields haven't on the tenure, haven't broken out from the range they've been in all year.

The VIX has stayed relatively muted and financial conditions haven't tightened that much.

So I think you get back to the trend you were originally in on fundamentals.

Now, it always feels a bit uncouth to talk about war in the context of stocks.

But you, I believe, were positive on defense and aerospace even last year before all of this started.

What's the outlook for that arena?

Yeah, thanks for pointing that out.

This has been a long-term theme for ours.

So if you think about aerospace, I think getting a little bit of a boost generally speaking from the consumer.

But defense seems, this is a global spending story on defense.

And it's not just traditional defense.

It's cyber as well.

Continuing in this world of less predictable geopolitics.

But again, this is not just a US story.

It's a US story, of course, but also if you look over at Europe meeting NATO obligations.

And, you know, this world that we live in, where geopolitics continue to surprise us in the headlines.

I think this is a super cycle to defense spending.

But on the flip side, the consumer, I mean, higher oil prices are not good for the pocketbooks and the at-home budgets.

I believe you are already cautious on consumer discretionary as we approach the closing ballot about 60 seconds.

What does this extra pressure on the consumer due to that consumer discretionary category?

And at what point does it become an even bigger problem?

So I would say it goes back to how long does this last?

If it's six months or more, back to drag on consumption.

In the near term, what we're seeing is a tremendous amount of direct to consumer stimulus on the way in the form of tax refunds.

We are estimating about $1,000 on average per US household.

And of course, it's very front and loaded into the first half of this year.

So these higher rising gas prices are coming at the moment as a bit of a buffer.

The higher age-hunting household, the cost of sales will affect the market fraction of the fees.

But I would think this will end if it lasts for two quarters or more.

That's enough to start working with the risk of consumption.

We're not going to.

Yeah.

Well, no telling how long it's going to last.

But you know, exactly how long this bill is going to last.

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