0:00
So there I am. I turn on ESPN. I'm thinking I'll eat at Big 12's the best league in college basketball.
0:04
Surely they have nine, ten, eleven teams of March madness, but no, that's the SEC.
0:10
And they want Auburn? They're like five and eleven in league play. Auburn into March?
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Oh, this is locked on Big 12 locked on college basketball crossover.
0:21
You are locked on Big 12. Your daily podcast on the Big 12 conference, part of the locked on
0:34
podcast network, your team every day. I mean, Tuesday, everybody, welcome to a locked on Big 12
0:40
locked on college basketball crossover. I'm Drake Toll from America's number one Big 12 podcast
0:45
locked on Big 12. That's Isaac shade of locked on college basketball. Thank you for making
0:48
our shows your first lesson every single day. Shade also hosts locked on Tarheals,
0:55
talking all things North Carolina. So we know who's from the ACC Big 12 perspective.
0:58
The SEC is getting a lot of love from the major networks. Is it warranted? We'll start there
1:04
and then we'll hit BYU, TCU, Texas Tech. Some of these big 12 schools that have sung into that
1:09
second third, maybe fourth tier. Can they still make March madness runs? Here's why I think the
1:14
answers. Yes, we get Isaac's thoughts as well. And then how many? Got to be two or three,
1:19
maybe four big 12 teams can actually make the final four in a year where there's a pretty
1:24
clear four at the very top of college basketball that all should be there. Who can topple? Uh-oh.
1:29
I like that facial expression. You can topple the likes of a Michigan and Sneak, or do can sneak
1:34
their way in. If you hit subscribe, we get to keep our jobs. Shade, man, I need to know. I don't
1:40
get it. I don't get it. Why? I look at Joe Lennarty's bracketology and he's so high on the SEC
1:47
when the Big 12 and even the ACC now are top of the Big 10. So top of it. It's one of the best
1:53
talent in all of college basketball. The SEC just has a lot of teams waiting around in that,
1:59
you know, 12 to 35th spot and namely in net. Where does the love come from for those three
2:05
letters, but not the rest of the country? Well, Drake, you've just said it with the SEC,
2:12
Florida aside, it's just a lot of black. There's like, do you want quantity or do you want
2:17
quality with the SEC? It's quantity with the big 12. It's quality in my opinion with the big 10.
2:23
It's quality in my opinion. The top one, two, maybe three in the ACC quality. And so I think it's
2:31
all about how you define success. For me, the big 12 success comes in. There are multiple teams and
2:38
I don't want to get too far ahead for conversation, but there are multiple teams at the top of the
2:43
big 12 that I think can win the national championship. There are multiple teams at the top of the
2:47
big 10 that I think could win the national championship outside of Florida. There is no
2:52
s here. Hear me everybody. See me read my lips outside of Florida. There is no SEC team that is
2:58
even final for worthy. And so it's like, I get, because I'm the same thing, I get frustrated
3:05
at like the SEC love. But if we want to define it, because what do we remember? The number of teams
3:13
outside of last year when the SEC set an NCAA tournament record? Sure, maybe. But outside of that,
3:19
what do we remember? We remember who won the whole blessed thing. And we remember who the final
3:24
four was. When we look back, I think we, even though the SEC is trending with more number of
3:31
volume teams, we ain't going to remember the SEC. We're going to remember the big 12, big 10
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chiefly from this season. You know, I want to push back on that a little bit. Please do.
3:42
I do. I think if you ask the average human being, name two teams in the final four in 2022,
3:50
that have no idea. Like, they would have no clue. Shade Villanilla.
3:55
Other than the fact that that was a wildly blue blooded year, yes.
3:59
Oh, 100%. That was a Nova. I mean, come on, ball noirs. Do Carolina is a final four game.
4:06
It can't just Carolina plays Kansas. Okay. So we know, right? Yeah,
4:10
for human being, what if I had no clue? Villanilla was there. And they remember that, oh, yeah,
4:14
that was Kansas one of the year after Baylor one of the year after. And that's what
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somebody asked you recently was a BYU fan said, hey, what is BYU have to do to be remembered?
4:22
Do they have to go to the final four? I said, no, plenty of teams have been to the final four.
4:26
And you think, oh, that's cute. Or you just forget about it altogether. You have to win
4:30
championships to be at the top of college basketball. That's that's weird part, though, Shade.
4:34
The big 12 did that. They won them back to back. They had the presence in the final four. They
4:38
were in the title last year. Yes, the SEC won it. But the big 12 has more in the 2020s than that
4:43
conference does. I just why? Again, people keep going back to the SEC is 500 against itself
4:52
in conference play. You have to be by Newton's law of conference play. Everyone's 500 at the end
4:58
of this thing. How do they continue to garner this middle of the pack? We need 11 or 12 teams in.
5:03
It didn't really work out that well last year. No, it's based on what happens in non-conference play.
5:10
It's based on, excuse me, the net and the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.
5:14
Like the selection committee has six different things they look at. Three of them are predictive
5:20
metrics based on like what the computer algorithms suggest should happen. And three of them are
5:25
then results based metrics. And so that is what people are putting all that together. And that's
5:30
what the net ranking is attempting to do is look at all of that. And so because of where the SEC
5:37
numbers are, because of what they do in non-conference play, that's why it brings this up. So like,
5:44
for example, an Arkansas last year. I didn't think I had any business making it in, but there they were.
5:48
Auburn, which I think now has found my goodness. They lost it home to Ole Miss over the weekends.
5:54
They're like, what are we doing here? So I think Auburn is finally now sticking fork in on
5:58
their done. But before that, they should have already had about 87 forks in them and been done.
6:03
And so, and I'm not defending that. I'm just explaining why it comes to be that way. I don't
6:10
agree with it either. Shade, last thing I'll give you here. You mentioned non-conference. I think
6:16
you're certainly right that they're going to track that. The big 12, 16 and 6 versus the SEC,
6:21
eight and nine versus the big 10, 14 and 10 versus the ACC and then seven and six versus the big
6:26
ease. They've got a really good record against the best competition in the country. And you've
6:30
mentioned wax poetic about why the SEC has treated this way. What is, I mean, West Virginia is
6:35
sitting there screaming. What do we have to do? What do we have to do? We're 500 in the big 12,
6:40
like 1911 overall. What more does it take? I just, so yes, you've helped me get to a conclusion
6:48
of why this is happening. I just, I still, I will not be a compute how a TCU or West Virginia is
6:55
being slaughtered behind in Auburn right now. And they should not be like Western,
7:00
that win over, I know BYU is on a little bit of a slide right now. But that win for West Virginia
7:05
over them over the weekend. Critically huge. Cincinnati had been on a nice little run ever since
7:10
West Miller apologized to everybody. TCU, like beaten, what was the case? Oh, yeah, it was a
7:16
purple battle over the weekend. TCU beating case state. Good for them. I know case state,
7:21
whatever things are crazy in Manhattan right now. But like TCU should be in shape to make this
7:27
thing. And so ultimately, I personally have the big 12 as the best conference in the country right
7:35
now. This season hands down. Ken Palm has them as second behind the SEC. But again, that's because
7:41
Ken Palm's algorithm projects a little bit more depth that does it despite the higher end
7:48
capability of the big 12. I agree with it. No. Like the algorithm fine. Sure, whatever you're going to
7:56
do, what you're going to do. My problem Drake is that I feel like there is baked into it a little
8:01
bit of self fulfilling prophecy where some of like the preseason projections kind of continue to
8:08
live on with a lot of it, all of that kind of stuff. Ultimately, what I think is going to be great
8:16
is when we get to the postseason, I fully expect when we get to the second weekend. We're looking
8:24
at, okay, how many big 12 teams are left? How many SEC teams are right? Like those kind of things.
8:28
And I know so like you can't just base it on that because so much of it is match of base and blah,
8:32
blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, fine, whatever. Big 12 is better than the SEC.
8:35
We're also, we're also arguing about who's going to lose to Michigan. I mean, if we're really
8:39
honest about this, I'm not, no, come on. Anytime we get to the bottom of the, I said, we get to the
8:44
bubble. We're arguing now in this era of college basketball about who's going to lose to Arizona.
8:48
I was going to lose to you. I was going to lose Florida. We know. Yeah.
8:52
Well, then go with me on this. Let's not argue about the bubble. Let's look at the top end of it.
8:57
Oh, let's do it. Let's do it. Well, that's the last segment, but yeah, continue.
9:01
Well, no, and I don't mean in like in terms of how I'm just going to talk numbers. I'm not going
9:06
to talk names. The big 12 right now for me has five teams that would be a one through four seat.
9:12
The big 10 right now has five teams that would be a one through four seat. ACC has two. SEC has two.
9:18
Like so if we're not wanting to base it on the bubble, if we're going to base it on teams that
9:22
could actually win this whole blessed thing, there you go. The big 12 has the numbers on the SEC
9:28
by two and a half. I like that. Coming up BYU TCU. These teams in the middle of the pack in the big 12.
9:33
Can one of them get hot? Can one of them win? I think so. I think so. Here's why this is locked on
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as well for the every day or as to prove your every day or hood. I am buying. I'm believing
11:02
in BYU. I'm believing in in Texas tech, especially after they're win at Iowa state, which
11:09
who that told me more about Iowa state than it did Texas tech. It exposed to me more holes in
11:15
Iowa state than it told me about where I think Texas tech, because I already know that Texas that
11:19
tech is that kind of world beater bloody you defensive jug or not for Iowa state. That's a wound
11:26
and that BYU loss after Richie Saunders went out. Those are both wounds that I go, oh,
11:31
whoa, Iowa state. Where'd that come from? But even still so Texas tech BYU. I'm going to have
11:36
them in the conversation TCU whose whose angling toward an NCAA tournament bid UCF.
11:43
Shade, I the reason I think those are sweet 16 caliber teams is because when we get into this thing
11:50
and BYU has a first round matchup against Miami of Ohio, who I think is good, but they
11:56
finally pulled off and win. And the second round they played Nebraska or maybe Illinois, maybe
12:01
Purdue or Virginia. I think the strength of the big 12, the net of the big 12 can propel a TCU
12:09
UCF BYU Texas tech into a sweet 16 or elite eight when you start pairing them against teams like
12:16
Alabama or Tennessee out of the SEC teams like like a Miami of Ohio. That's where I believe this
12:22
conference will thrive because the league schedule has seasoned these, these roster so well.
12:29
It is. And that's where I mean, it's like you look up every night and there's a,
12:33
I mean, not every night because we don't play every night, but there's a big 12 matchup that's like
12:37
a good luck doing that. And it's not even just these top five or six teams. It's like, look,
12:42
I know Utah's not great, but good luck going up to that elevation and and doing stuff, right?
12:46
Like good luck heading up to Boulder and knocking off the buffs, whatever it is, right? And so
12:51
there's it just feels like nightly that you have to deal with something going down to Orlando,
12:57
right? Like I feel like UCF wins more often than you expect in some of those crazy games.
13:03
John, he's got a cooking, you know? And so drink these nightly tests. Again, I know we're talking
13:10
about the big 12 being top heavy, but I think the middle, as you said, and even some of the bottom
13:14
is better than we give it credit for, you know, around the country or wherever you want to say it.
13:21
Look, like I know Kansas State is just kind of falling off right now, but they've still got
13:27
PJ Hagger to you got to contend with, right? Like Oklahoma State has fallen off since some of what we
13:31
maybe thought about them earlier, but Hank Iba, man, that's a tough place to go play. And so
13:36
there is never like just truly a night off where it's like you can sleepwalk through it.
13:40
Like the Big East, I mean, the Big East legitimately is only going to get three teams into the
13:44
tournament this year. And it's great. Like the bottom of the Big East is awful. The big 12 does not
13:48
provide that. And while it's tougher in the slog of January and February, ultimately Drake,
13:54
as you're saying, that's so much better for these teams because there's so much more battle
13:58
tested coming into March. You look at a like I respect everything Miami of Ohio and what they've
14:04
done. Like I'm so proud of. It's so cool. What a neat story. But Drake, not only have they not
14:10
won any quad one games, they haven't played a quad one game. Like they're poor guys, they're just
14:14
not going to be ready for March. And I hate it for them, but it's true.
14:19
I also really like them. I hate disparaging them. Yeah, exactly. Man, but I do think they'll end up
14:25
within 11 seed, not 10 seed, maybe. And people will say, well, the eight people, I know, but the
14:31
eight people is a very different thing. That's exactly right. Then how we see these teams from
14:35
March, Matt, as Miami of Ohio will not be a top four seed or five seed despite the eight people
14:41
having them somewhere in that range. The bill, let's camp out for a second with a BYU for Texas
14:48
Tech. Both similar situations lose a star player to to a lower body injury. But one of the teams
14:54
has responded by just winning. Texas Texas just winning BYU on the other hand, they've had a
14:59
pretty tumultuous last week and a half, two weeks, two teams, different trajectories. I think Texas
15:05
Tech, even without JT Toppen, they're, they're a, and, man, this is word soup here. But what I want to
15:12
communicate, the listeners have locked on big tub of one thing to know with water cooler is today,
15:17
a three seed, upsetting a one seed is the same thing five years ago as an eight seed,
15:23
upsetting a one. So the gap between one and three, the gap between Duke and Texas Tech,
15:29
right now with JT Toppen out is large. It, it's continuing to grow. The tech though,
15:36
they're that team that I could still see go, you know what? Yep, they're a final four squad
15:39
because of Grant McCastlin. BYU, BYU is a sweet 16 team. I don't see a world right now where I
15:46
can take them past the elite eight. Yeah, let's start with tech. What, what I love about tech,
15:53
dude, I mean, it's the second that JT Toppen injury was announced coming off of that Arizona
16:00
state game where that injury happened. Everybody started writing them off immediately because you got
16:04
the reigning big 12 player that you're done and gone, right? Like in, in BYU's case, you still had
16:10
two thirds of the government working for you and to quote Mars attacks, that ain't bad, right?
16:16
And so that's the good news because they're still AJ. They're still Rob with, with Texas Tech,
16:21
it's been this big two of JT and Christian Anderson. And so at that point, it was like, man,
16:25
C.A. is going to have to take a lot on his shoulders, right? And he did those first two games that
16:30
tech played right after that. Kansas state and Cincinnati, both at home. He did just about everything.
16:37
But what I love Drake, that Iowa state win over the end, not only was it critically important
16:42
because it was a way because it showed us and voters what they can still do because yes,
16:46
as you just said, Grant McCaslin is a dude of a coach. It was not just Christian Anderson,
16:53
just a spread out offensive attack. Five or six different double figures. I think it was six.
16:58
I'm not looking at the box score right now. But what I love is that you've got other guys stepping
17:03
up, right? Donovan out well, stepping up doing it. LeWan Watts stepping in, doing some of these
17:08
things as you need. You've finally gotten a little healthier loop band boy A coming back,
17:13
some other things like that where guys are stepping into that. There is no one player for
17:18
Texas Tech that's going to fill JT shoes. You just can't. But man, the tough nose grit with which
17:24
they play is insane to me. And when you say that, it makes you think defense, that Texas Tech
17:29
offense is ninth in the country and offensive efficiency right now. And what I love is I said,
17:35
we everyone initially wrote them all the way off after the injury. I love that this week,
17:39
there was a nice response back in the other direction. Texas Tech was the biggest
17:43
riser in the brand new way people that came out on Monday going up six spots. So I love that people
17:49
kind of owned it. Like I've said on our show, I've seen other national people saying, hey,
17:52
we thought Tech would fall off. They haven't three and no and looking forward. They've got TCU at
17:58
home coming up Tuesday night. And then oddly and ironically enough, the other ACL ridden team,
18:05
they're at BYU to wrap the regular season Saturday. And so Drake, I guess that takes us then
18:09
to BYU, which as you said, has not been able to live up and do it at the same level that Texas Tech had.
18:15
Now what three or one in three, excuse me, after the Richie Saunders injury,
18:20
losing to Arizona, UCF West Virginia. But beating Iowa State, oddly enough, they've both.
18:26
And so that's that's kind of the weird thing here. BYU, I'm concerned about Drake. I got to be
18:32
honest. I liked them. I was all of the big six in the big 12. I had them at the bottom of that
18:39
even before Richie's injury. And so I'm nervous. I'm nervous for the Cougars. I got to be honest.
18:45
I think BYU fans are also pretty nervous here. But last year was a monumental year for them. And
18:49
they I'm going to say only because in the context of the big 12, the expectation is the top teams
18:54
are the final four. They only made the sweet 16. So they do that again. Well, they got to be
18:59
like you. I'm a good grief. Yeah, they did. That was one of the greatest shooting performances
19:03
of everteens that college basketball team. Don't remind them. Don't remind me. I shan't.
19:07
I shan't. We we rescind. We rescind and say, yeah, I think that if BYU does make the sweet 16,
19:14
they did a lot. Yeah, we're happy. Cool expectation met for where the expectation was reset post
19:18
Richie Saunders coming up. It will not be a very happy time for Calvin Samson if they only make
19:24
the sweet 16 or Arizona and Tommy Lloyd, who will make the final four out of the big 12. This
19:29
is a locked on big 12 locked on college basketball crossover.
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20:54
Isaac shade of locked on college basketball. The time we're recording this is actually before
20:58
a fairly marquee game that will take place in the big 12 tonight. Yeah, I always take travels to
21:02
Arizona. The reason being two things. Number one, I would like to go to bed before 1 a.m.
21:06
Eastern time. Number two, um, they're both going to be either a one or two seat in March madness.
21:12
I don't see that changing based on how their schedule looks. I do believe the committee will
21:16
honor them, but they're still part of this conversation. No matter the outcome of that game
21:20
yesterday. I always stay or or even that Texas tech dark horse, a Houston and Arizona
21:27
of the big 12 schools near the top of college basketball. How many are actually and again,
21:32
I think the gap between a one seat to three seat is way different now than it was a few years ago.
21:36
That one seat is so heavy with talent. Is there a cutoff line of the big where is the cutoff line
21:43
of the big 12 teams that can actually be final four? Top five are all final four possibilities.
21:49
No way. That's a lot of teams. No, a lot of teams. Drake, I'm deadly serious. Now there are
21:55
contingencies. Of course, can Darren Peterson play basketball like if he can, there is no reason
22:02
that a Darren Peterson cannot help lead this team to the final four to Indianapolis. You think
22:10
about it like one of the trade offs of all his on and off is think about all the experience that
22:16
Melvin council has had having to lead this team when DPs off the court adjusting to things that
22:22
fly at him unexpectedly, right? Like that's what marches and trade white in these dudes.
22:26
Florey Badunga is coming into his own. I mean, my goodness. And you've got this dude on the
22:32
sideline that is one of the best to ever do it in bill self. We talked about Grant McCaslin,
22:37
man, bill self, do you believe? If not the best coach, top three doing it right now. I mean,
22:44
it's, it's insane how good he is. And so I know you mentioned earlier some holes in Iowa states
22:50
game, but they're the pieces in place. Joshua Jefferson is one of the singularly best players,
22:54
most impactful players in the nation right now. Not to mention Melon Momchilevich, this dude that
22:59
plays the three at like seven foot 42, knocking down threes at a ridiculous clip,
23:04
Tame and Lipsy and all his experience at the one. So Iowa state can do it. I just, when I look
23:09
at those top five, that to me is still the cutoff. But obviously, Arizona is the singular team that
23:17
is most in shape to do it. Why? Because as a one seed, you have all the best percentage chances.
23:22
Drake, I know that Duke is number one overall right now. I know some people love Michigan,
23:27
even more and the LJ case in injury they had over the weekend matters, but he's not a starter.
23:32
So it's not a critical blow to them. But to me, Drake told Arizona is the most complete team
23:38
in the entire nation. Say that again, I didn't hear you. The Arizona Wildcats under the leadership
23:46
of Tommy Lloyd are the most complete team in the nation. And Drake, if I got anything to say,
23:52
this will be the year that people finally stop asking the question, can Tommy Lloyd win a big
23:57
game in March because they're going to freaking do it now? Are they most complete is there for sure.
24:06
John Shire's good, man. Dusty May, Dusty May is good. Those rosters are for real. Florida,
24:13
they've been there, Yukon, they've been there. You could argue that level of experience for
24:18
Hurley and company is going to give them an edge, come March. And that if they face Arizona,
24:23
that experience could could ultimately give them the edge enough to win. If Arizona's the most
24:28
complete, does that mean then the national champions? I think they have just as good a shot at it
24:33
as any of those other teams. Now, my goodness, there are more teams with a chance to be national
24:40
champion than I can remember in recent years. Yeah, really, you think that you think that I
24:44
truly do it like because Duke Arizona and Michigan are your clear obvious. They are the top three
24:50
teams. They are going to be number one through three overall in some form or fashion. That'll be
24:54
determined because it's so such thin margins. I think it's going to be determined by championship
25:00
week who wins conference tournaments and who doesn't. Beyond that, because of the recent
25:05
losses that Houston took that three game losing street because of a little bit of struggles from
25:08
Iowa state here, I think they're kind of out of the one seed picture unless they can win the big
25:14
12 tournament. That might get them to that fourth one seed, but right now as we sit here today,
25:18
Drake, that fourth one seed is between Florida and Yukon. They have wildly the inside track on
25:24
that. But then so those top five, I all really think can do it. But beyond that, you've got the
25:30
pedigree of Houston. They just did it. I mean, it was them in Houston last year and the Florida
25:37
back court is getting better. They're still not there. Now, history would tell us that Florida can't
25:42
be national champions because every national champion in the 64 team era has hit at least 33%
25:48
of their threes or better. Florida is multiple percentage points beneath that. So they would have
25:53
to do something historically out of the mold to win the national championship. So I will not be
25:58
bracket, but I do think that they could be a one seed if they run the table here. But beyond that,
26:03
like Michigan State, Texas Tech, Illinois talent. Yeah, dude, I know they've taken a couple of
26:10
losses here. They lost to Michigan over the weekend. I believe in what Illinois is doing. They
26:14
just got Kyle and Boswell back from injury. Man, Keaton Wagler, Wagler, excuse me. Oh my goodness.
26:19
In this year of the freshman, he's one of them. So yeah, I think there are a host of teams that
26:24
could come out and win this thing. But very easily any one of them could be the big 12 because there
26:30
will not be another conference that will have three one and two seeds, but the big 12 will.
26:36
I, I do want to shout out Elislaw of Molotov of Illinois and his ability to come off the bench
26:43
and score. Well, that's not an actual, let's say that's not a Illinois player. At least five people
26:50
listening to like, yeah, man, he's been, yeah, I might. Yeah, dude, you start throwing continents
26:55
together. And then yeah, like that, the Eastern block is strong in champagne. Probably a guy that
27:00
plays for Illinois, I guess. They're right. Yeah, sure. That the way the Brad Underwood is built
27:05
that that roster this year. I think they're as good as Sean as any Brad Underwood team in the
27:12
last five seasons to make a run and win a national championship. They're kind of again, what I hate
27:18
is let's say Illinois is a three seed. That's just there's a tangible gap that I find so much
27:24
more extreme than usual between an Illinois and a Duke or between an Illinois and Arizona. And
27:30
maybe it was that way three years ago. This is just recency bias, but it feels like the gap.
27:35
I mean, one in three is massive because of how good due to the portal in IEL, the top of college
27:40
basketball is and and Pete Susa ESPN play my play joined the show and said, you know, the days of
27:45
St. Peter's are over because of in IEL in the portal. It's going to be really hard to do.
27:49
But here's the, the, the other part of that though, Drake is that a lot of those guys that would
27:54
have been 12 13 14 and 15 on Duke Spence that were five stars are now not on Duke's roster.
28:01
They're playing on some of these three seeds. And so in that regard, like some of that wealth
28:06
is spread out more and that's where it works and where you get some of these. Now a lot of them
28:11
aren't going to St. Peter's, but you look at I like I'm what I'm very curious to see just
28:16
following this rabbit trail for a second is last year we had so much chocolate does that happen
28:22
again, because I'm not buying it as the thing yet. But if that happens two or three years in
28:26
a row, then we got a serious conversation on our hands. And so a lot of it is going to fall
28:30
this shit like because with all the undefeatedness of Miami Ohio, they're not the best mid-major
28:35
team in the nation this year. It's St. Louis by far the bill, the billikins would blast Miami
28:41
Ohio on a neutral floor. That's good. Isaac shade. You can find him on Twitter at Isaac shade
28:48
S C H A D E with lucked on college basketball, lucked on Tariots. This has been always will be
28:53
locked on. Thank you for making our shows. You're first, listen every single day across over
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college basketball and don't say Glond. Quick and easy to do. Almost two.