Free Agency Fantasy Winners and Losers: Jeanty and Tuten to the moon? Time to panic for Breece Hall?

Big show for you here today, it is Chris Allen making his triumphant return to the podcast to break down a little bit of winners and losers coming out of free

Yes, who's stock is up whose stock is down. We talk ashton genty. We talk DK Metcalf. We talk Devon H and we talk plenty of players here

Josh downs. I try to show some restraint when Chris brings up Josh downs. Hopefully you guys are proud of me. We shall see. All right, all that more

Cut up on today's show. Let's get into it. Hey Matt Harman here from the Yahoo fantasy forecast. I know I'm all about football. I'm a football guy, but

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Away cup

What's going on everybody? I'm Matt Harmon. Welcome to the Yahoo fantasy forecast and it is a hell of a day to talk

Ball and joining me to do just that it's been a minute, but he's back

It's our friend Chris Allen Chris. What's going on buddy?

Man, I've been telling people since I got back from any napless that if there's any chance that you get to go to the combine

You should obviously go to the combine if you ever get a chance to because sure you can go to Indy for the steak houses and get your

Fill of horse radish fill cocktail sauce

You can go to Indy in order to see the coaches and media personalities as we see on TV all the time

I mean did I shake Sean Payton's hand we walked into one of the steak houses there absolutely I did

Did one of our friends drew Davenport run after Rich Eisen down the street in order to take a picture of him absolutely

But I go to Indianapolis for the chance to run into two award winning

Podcasts and an award winning producer and I did just that when I ran into you and Nate Tyson

Of course our own guy working by the scenes column Brennan

So no man, I'm too wonderful. I'm gonna do it wonderful

It's now that time of the offseason where we do get a chance to have some drama

We get some news we get a mix that but at the same time we get a chance to also kind of let those takes marinate for a bit

Since there's not that hustle and bustle the regular seasons to know I'm happy to be back here and talk with you for a bit

Hey big dog

Let me tell you what this is one award winning podcast or to another because you are a big part of us taking that award home

So it was good to see you in Indianapolis

There's no question about that even though like I had to sit there and think to myself like as you're talking like what night

Did I see Chris because everything just kind of blurs to like I know we hung out

But I'm like what night was that because the whole week just kind of blurs together

Which is also what happens here during NFL free agency week?

I'm like not a hundred percent can the convince that all of these moves have happened

Either in the last 12 hours or the last 12 days because this week has felt super super long a lot of twists and turns

But that's what we're gonna be doing today

We're gonna be breaking down some of the things that have happened here over the last week in NFL free agency and look Chris

When you're you're a big-time podcast like we are sometimes you've got to take the layups

Okay, you got to take the got to take the easy content

You got to fill fill the docket. We're doing winners and losers today, okay?

It is winners and losers a stupid exercise after a free agency or really anything

Yeah, sure it is absolutely ridiculous. However, that's what we're gonna do. Okay. We're that's what we're gonna do here

Who's who's who stock is up who stock is down coming out of some of these moves in free agency and the first block of the show

We're gonna start positive each have three winners from free agency week

Second block of the show that's when we're gonna get a little negative

We're gonna talk three losers from each of us coming out of free agency and then we're gonna finish it up with one big question

We still have after free agency week. So let's waste no more time Chris. Let's get into it

Let's talk winners and losers here and start with those winners. Who is your first player that you think is a big winner coming out of free agency

So I'll say my first big winner is Jaguar is running back Bay Shaltoten and I'll set it up like this because when I think about

Running backs and their potential to move into the upper echelon of the fancy football rankings

It's two things one. How many phases does your team see you playing in and I'll elaborate down just a second

But then also are you part of a productive or efficient offense?

I think the second question we can answer pretty easily, right?

I mean Liam Cohen after taking the sticks and controlling the Jaguar's offense the last season

I mean, I think that was a success in my book. I mean top half the league marks in total yards per game EPA per play

Third in plays run their opponents red zone

I mean, I think that's all while managing what a decline in their second receiver in Brian Thomas Jr

An injury to their first round rookie Travis Hunter Jr

I mean all of those things. I mean, it's like when we we're talking through some of the games last year when you and I were

Recapping games. It was like how is this Jaguar's team going to continue marching for it?

But still it was they were productive wound up getting to the playoffs and essentially just a drive away from getting over the bills

And now we able to keep going in their quest for a Super Bowl

But I think for the first question I was talking about like how many phases do you really see a running back playing in?

I mean that requires a little bit more thought

I mean our friend and colleague a Dwayne McFarland like the leads a colleague in the fantasy space

I mean, he has he works me over a fantasy life and he has the utilization report which breaks down all the fantasy relevant

facets of a players deployment. So when I say phases, I mean I'm talking about like what parts of the game?

Do you really think a team is really is willing to feature that running back?

Are you a long down in distance grinder kind of like a Rashad Whiteish type of guy your short-guardage option like

Reem Hunt in the later stage of his career or you receiver like Kenny Gainwell?

I think in Tutan's case he was able to match or exceed

Travis ETN's efficiency despite fewer touches. I mean as the early down runner Tutan had a higher success rate while seeing a

similar percentage of stacked boxes and Tutan broke more tackles on a per carry basis than Travis ETN.

And on third downs, he was just as effective. I mean five first downs on 12 touches. I mean over like just close to 50% conversion rate.

So I mean the same hell true in short yardage situation. So I mean other five first downs and one of them being a touchdown against the Raiders.

I believe those are like week nine or so. As a receiver, I mean despite just earning 14 targets, I mean average eight yards after the catch.

Now I remember that specifically that average eight yards per catch because it's that's exactly how far he ran past both Cam Sample and

Sharmar Stewart first receiving touchdown when they played my bangles back in week two. So I think I see all of those different pieces of Tutan's game really coming together.

And with the path for him to have some more production here in 2026. I mean yeah, could we see a bit more of

look when Alan absolutely could we see Trevor Lawrence continued to like run the rock in like every now and again as he has over these past few seasons.

Absolutely. But I think with the void that Travis ETN has left Tutan is showing enough in order to fill enough of that and expand on more of what we saw back in 2025.

Yeah, just to table set here for people who are not living and dying by NFL news. Congratulations on you guys by the way for having a life. We don't know what that's like.

Well, Chris actually does have a life. I certainly do not have a life. So for those folks who haven't been dialed in completely Travis ETN signs a four year deal to go to the New Orleans Saints.

That was pretty telegraphed. I don't think there was really any resistance that the Jaguars put up to keep Travis ETN. I think he was always going to price himself out of their range.

Obviously he is a holdover from the last staff to head coaches ago. Actually, he was drafted by Urban Mark.

Remember when the Urban Meyer drafted like telegraphed that he actually wanted cadarious Tony and then he's like, well, we'll just get Travis ETN to catch passes.

And so what a disaster. What a time. What a time in human history that was the kicker and everything. Oh, that was crazy.

Was it the bar getting the lap dance? You know, I mean, after a Thursday night game, I'm never going to find that. That was the Urban Meyer era is one of those things, which is,

it's just very rare that this happened, but that rises to the level of like, I got to tell my wife about this.

Like, there's very few things that happened in the NFL universe. I'm like, she'll find this interesting. But I was like, I got to tell after that, that the bar.

And so I was like, I got to, I got to clue the wife into this one. That was very much worth it. I will never forget the Urban Meyer era as much as Jaguars fans probably do.

But anyways, ETN holdover from that draft several staffs ago, he was always going to move on. So he goes to the Saints on a four year deal.

Then the Jaguars to replace him, they signed Chris Rodriguez to a two year deal formally of the Washington commanders. It's a $10 million deal.

$6.2 million guaranteed, which is not chump change. And I actually kind of forgot about this. He was with Liam Cohen when he was working at the University of Kentucky back in 2021.

Yet 238 touches in that season under Liam Cohen before Cohen bolted to the NFL to go to the Rams before he actually went back to Kentucky in 2023.

So they do have some history together. So Chris, I wouldn't say this is a complete nothing burger signing by the Jaguars.

But I was kind of surprised to see my entire timeline at different points when I checked in really over the last like 24 hours at war with each other.

Over like Basial Tutan versus does Chris Rodriguez matters like guys, it's March. We got a long way to go. But you clearly don't think that this is that much of a needle mover for Tutan's fantasy stock.

Well, no, because I still think it's going to increase. Now, do I think he's going to ascend to the same levels as Travis ETN was even from an ADP perspective? No.

But should he should we at least consider the path for him to get into that range or at least something close to that over these next three, four, five months as we get into training camp.

And as we hear more about how he's integrated into the offense, along with Chris Rodriguez and the rest of the team.

I think that is more reasonable than saying, let's just copy and paste whatever Travis ETN did and move him and move Basial Tutan into that role.

That's where I'm at as of right now because like again, looking at how he performed back in 2025 and how well he can play in each of those roles.

I still see him kind of mapping more so into that skill set of what Travis ETN is leaving behind than what Chris Rodriguez showed with the commanders back in 2025 as well.

Could Rodriguez also factor in as the goal line type of guy, maybe short yardage type of carry option for for the Jaguars in 2026? Absolutely.

By Duce, I would at least think of Tutan at this point as more of the, let's say, 50 to 60% of the carries that type of a role for him that at least gets him into that RB2ish consideration more so than anything else.

Yeah, I like the way you frame that there. I really wonder where he's going to kind of settle from an ADP perspective because people are going to be excited about him and he's a very exciting player.

He's explosive. He showed some flashes last year. There's no question about that. A lot of the advanced metrics were pretty good on him and famously again, you can pick your kind of fun little touchstone narrative here for these Jaguars backs because James Gladstone, when he was interviewing for the Jaguars job, was talking about Basial Tutan as one of his target players last year.

And then he ends up getting the Jags. Job being drafting Basial Tutan. So there's clearly a lot of investment in him.

They were pretty not hard on him, I would say, but they were pretty like, hey, we got to get this fumbling problem worked out in mini camp. And for the most part, it didn't really turn itself out to be a big issue.

So Tutan's a guy that's going to be very, I would say expensive in drafts this year. I'm waiting for Justin Boone to respond to me because I just text him. I said, where do you think you're going to rank Tutan next year because I don't want to spend all the time crashing my computer to figure that out here.

So he's got the text bubble up. I will update the people as we go here in terms of where Boone thinks he is going to rank where he's going to rank Tutan because I think that will tell us a lot in terms of what it's going to cost to draft him.

Come on, Boone, like our oscill up here. Anyway, we'll come back to that. I'll get to my first winner here, which is another another rookie running back from last year.

Ashton Gentia, I think we got to say he is a winner coming out of free agency, Tyler Linderbaum signed to be the center for the Las Vegas Raiders. That's a big upgrade there. They prayed a premium to get him, but Linderbaum's a good player at the pivot point there. He's going to be a really good fit in in kubiaks, like zone blocking run scheme.

I think that's pretty successful. Also, just the entire Raiders operation is just going to be much more buttoned up and professional than what it was last year. They've made additions across the board. The team is going to be better. That's good news for genty. They're obviously going to draft Fernando Mendoza at the first overall pick. That has been kind of telegraphed at this point.

I just think everything that's happened over the last week, including the fact that Max Crosby had his trade voided, which obviously we haven't talked about because it's a fantasy show, but it's a pretty insane storyline, but even the fact that Max Crosby for now remains a member of the Las Vegas Raiders, that's actually a pretty good thing for Ashton Gentia, because it will make a better team if he is on the roster, which I'm still skeptical of.

Right now, I don't think you could say this has been a pretty good offseason to this point for the Raiders in terms of being a better team they were last year, which is good news for the starting running back, even if the biggest thing is like, hey, they brought entitled to the bomb, the blocking is going to be better.

Any way to improve the way that the Raiders approach the run blocking scheme, I would say it was a plus for Ashton Gentie.

I mean, 18 running backs with more than 50% of their team's carries last week.

I mean, Ashton Gentie, 17th and adjusted yards before contact, and he also had the most rushing attempts where he was contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage, around 54% of his carries.

So if they can shift any of that by either in changing the block the blocking scheme, but then also if they have some, let's say higher level of competency, because I don't want to really just completely disparage, you know, Smith.

But still, if they can have a little bit better competency under center with Fernando Bendoza coming in, at least assuming where he's coming in and playing at some point this season, because the reports have been that yes, they might draft him, but even if they do, they're going to try and sit him for at least some period of time.

There have been rumors floating around about they try and sign guys like our veterans like Kirk cousins to maybe start the season and then maybe let Mendoza take over at some point midway through the year.

But either way, if there's again a higher level of competency around that entire passing game to take some pressure off the running game.

Add in guy like Jalen nailer, who I thought was actually a pretty underrated signing for the Raiders and maybe get a little bit of progression for somebody like Jack, maybe here in the second season as well.

There's enough that compoles enough attention away from action genty that I do think I agree with you that he's a winner this year, at least for this off season so far.

Yeah, last year I was very much just not interested in drafting ashton genty in the first round Nate and I did the whole show where we looked at like guys who are going really high in ADP relative to like their projected offensive efficiency and the Raiders stuck out for those two teams.

For those two guys, genty and bowers this this year, there's going to be that same iron price from an ADP standpoint. I'm probably more open to it this year again.

The Linderbomb edition is great. Jalen nailer coming in, the guys they've got on defense. I think we'll make that unit better. But to me, it's just like it's going to be an entirely much more professional operation, which is weird to say because Pete Carroll was the head coach and Pete Carroll is like a model of professionalism, but it's just

Brennan Carroll, the NEPO baby offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly and Pete care not being on the same page. The front office and those again not being on the same page. Everything's going to feel a lot better in Las Vegas this year. So I'm very excited to actually be in on action, genty this year update from Justin Boone.

He says he has he says I'm literally working on running backs as we speak. So don't hold him to this, but he's got basal to net running back, which is amazing timing. He's got him at running back 25.

My guess is the ADP on basal to and will be significantly higher than that. So we will have those conversations as we go throughout the spring and summer. Give me another winner you think from this past week, Chris.

So I'll say the other winner for me is Josh Downs. And I think before we even get into nerding out about Josh, let's let's let's just address the elephant in the room before we start talking about it, because I know like you Matt harm and you are the president CEO and treasurer of the Josh Downs fan club.

But I can already hear like the ghosts of people that are listening right now, like who's going to be throwing in the ball and all that's like, OK, I get that. OK, I can understand.

Just caveat all of this with his value being tied to whatever indie decides to do a quarterback, at least to start 2026. OK.

Now last season before Daniel Jones's injury, Downs was earning more targets on a per route basis than Michael pitman and also Josh Downs had more first downs on a per route basis than Michael pitman as well.

Higher first downs per route run, which I mean for a lot of the folks that haven't been like taking into some of the advanced metrics, guys like Ryan Heath over fancy points that have been kind of promoting these types of metrics.

I mean, Downs has really been at least one of the better players, at least from from that standpoint, at least this past year. Downs also led the wide receivers and red zone targets 11 score three touchdowns.

I would say the biggest thing is though, I mean, Indy, we've seen the past Indiana Indian Indianapolis trying to get down into let's say more of a wide receiver one type role when pitman hasn't been in the lineup.

I think it was back in week 10 of 2024 with pitman out. Downs was up to 71% route rate 28.6 percent target rate week 16 of 2023 also when pitman was out. Downs up to a 93% route rate 25% of the targets.

I mean, when they've had their opportunities, I mean, regardless of who's been under center, what is Gardner men's shoe back in 2023, the Joe Flacco era of the cults in 2024, regardless independent of who's been throwing him the ball.

When they've had the opportunity to do so, they've put downs out in the field more often and tried to at least get him more involved in this offense.

And I think, and you can speak to this just as well as I can or better than I can, is that downs is a good receiver. I mean, it's exceptional as a man beater and man coverage.

I mean, he is ranked over Michael pitman and ESPN's open score and two of the three seasons together. And also when you look at his yards per route run against man coverage, also ahead of Michael pitman in two of their three seasons together as well, I would say that not to say that he is the same type of receiver because at least from a stature standpoint.

What pitmans maybe at least a solid six inches taller than Josh downs and 10 to 15 pounds heavier, but still if you are looking for that type of receiver production where if you want to have him either in the slot, maybe if you want to slide him out to the outside a little bit not too often, but still you can get similar production out of Josh downs as you cut us as to Michael pitman.

And that's why I can understand them doing the trade to send him to Pittsburgh in keeping Josh downs and trying to involve him in the offense for because we've seen them do it in the past.

So I think you can take that next step forward in his evolution as a as a full on wide receiver to and I'd like to see it here in 2026.

Obviously moving on from pitman in a big part of it is to keep Alec Pierce. That was quite literally why they did it. They needed free of the salary space to keep Alec Pierce.

That being said, I think you don't make this move to get away from Michael pitman unless you have a lot of faith in Josh downs and to your point, I do think they should have a lot of faith in Josh downs because downs is an awesome player like just to go back to some of the stats that you read off there.

Even at last year among wide receivers with 200 plus routes to 118 wide receivers on the Colts downs was 24th in targets per route. Michael pitman was 36th out of those 118 wide receivers Alec Pierce is 67.

Obviously Alec Pierce wins down field. That's why he's not getting as many targets. That number's got to come up to justify the contract and I think it probably will I don't think he'll be 67th in targets per route.

We'll see how high he can climb. But obviously for downs, it's not a scale issue. It's not even like he gets the football when he's on the field issue.

It's just not being on the field enough. I mentioned 118 wide receivers ran 200 plus routes. Downs was 56th in route participation, which is lower than like Tamir D.K.

It's right ahead of Xavier Hutchinson. Like obviously he dealt with some injuries at times, but he just needs to be on the field more.

The question Chris, do you think the Colts will look at 5.9 sub 180 pound Josh Downs and say he's going to be on the field for every single snap. He's going to be in two receiver sets.

I think that's an unknown at this point and it probably will depend on who they take in the NFL draft because my guess is that they think we're going to do just what we did with Pierce and downs and pitman.

And I mentioned, even though that one didn't work out, we're going to take a guy on day two of the draft and see what happens there.

I agree with that approach. And also, I mean, with Tyler Warren, essentially stepping in as another able bodied receiver, not just as a blocker, but then also somebody that can work the short and intermediate parts of the field that offers them a little bit more flexibility.

And I would say the archetype receiver that they would need to add, whether like to your point, if it's day two or whenever.

I think, but I still think that there is a, I think there's a, there's a world that exists. And hopefully it's this one that they view downs as a, as an every down or as these as a higher route participation type of wide receiver.

As compared to the last two to three years that we've seen from where his route participation has sit in the 50 60% range, kick him up into the 80% have him as a part of two wide receiver sets.

At least have him on the field a bit more often for when whomever is going to be throwing in the ball. That's TBD at this point.

At least when they need a bucket, need a first down conversion. He is that guy or you, especially once they get into the red zone, they have all of their options there.

At least that quarterback could have all of his options available for them in order to convert or one of getting the cult into the red zone. So I think that's how they see him. And I think that is might be a little bit of a leap of faith because we haven't seen it yet.

But at least from what we've seen so far, enough of the metrics are there to tell us at least there's a possibility to it.

At least that's a part of his game for what we've seen over the last three years or so.

It makes them just a good post type sleeper candidate, I think. And people might not be down to draft Josh downs because you know they saw his RP route chart going across the timeline and a bunch of people hyping him up last year.

And he obviously did not come through. But again, it's not about talent. It's about being healthy and it's about being on the field for Josh down.

So we'll be looking for clues throughout the course of the off season to see if he can be that guy. Can we just by the way, take a quick second to applaud my maturity here and like being kind of the voice of reason.

Yes, yes, you were restrained. I was almost expecting to be like, of course he's a winner. Yes, draft him in the third round.

No, I don't want to get I don't want to get people burned again by Josh downs in fantasy. But yes, I'm very excited. I do think he fits as a winner.

Another wide receiver, I think we got to categorize as a winner here, regardless of what you think about the price that the bills paid to get him or his contract.

I think we do have to say DJ Moore is without question a winner coming out of free agency going to the Buffalo bills.

The reality is here like he just was not a fit in Ben Johnson's offense. He was targeted at the lowest percentage from a like a target per out run perspective of his entire career.

It was like sub 17% in the regular and postseason combined. And I was trying to I was trying to explain this to James co yesterday where at different times last year, just felt like 10 guys were running the Bears offense.

And then DJ Moore was kind of doing his own thing. And I don't mean that to take a shot at DJ Moore. I just think he wasn't really a system fit. And I think that's been born out at this point. And I think it was always kind of hey, we're going to have you around here for one more year. And then we'll probably be we'll be gone in terms of this relationship.

Landing with the Buffalo bills is huge for DJ for a variety of reasons. We've talked about the familiarity of course with Joe Brady. But one thing I've continued to kind of think about a marinade on is just DJ Moore's route tree.

And you see that like what he ran a lot last year from a percentage standpoint when I charted him was a lot of those like post routes to clear stuff out. Honestly, like the most sacrificial.

Receive the most expensive sacrificial receiver in the league ran a lot of like dig routes, out routes, stuff like that. But you actually look at the routes that he's best on as we're showing here on the screen right now post, excuse me, a go routes like nine routes, curl routes, kind of those deeper stops, which is a lot of what he ran.

With Justin Fields in that first year in Chicago. And it's a lot of what he on Coleman has run for the bills as the extra receiver on this team.

Lot of go routes and stop routes. Obviously Coleman's not created separating Moore when he's on is a good separator, even if he's not the best route technician from a details perspective.

I just think he fits really well with Josh Allen. I think he fits really well with Buffalo. So very curious to see where the ADP might be on him, Chris, but I think he does have to get categorized as a winner here.

I agree. I mean, if anything, I know that when the trade was first announced, the reaction was just more of well, what does that really mean, especially since we've seen the bills really form into this low a dot more runs centric type of offense over the last couple of seasons.

Featuring their tight ends and really not a ton of production to their wide receivers. But I would say on the flip side.

Let's look at the quality of wide receivers that they've had. I mean, let's leave the key on Coleman discussion aside.

I mean, have we seen anything from Josh Palmer when he was there? Have we seen anything from Curtis Samuel, although I guess now I'm thinking about it.

It would have been nice to have Curtis Samuel and DJ more playing together again, but I know their boys dude.

I know ships in the night, man, you see, if you've seen that video of like the, yeah, you know what I'm talking about when he would like went.

Curtis signed with the commanders and how DJ changed his number from 12 to two because 12 minus 10 is two.

Two and two, yes.

Yes.

Yeah. So it's a bummer they're not going on the field. I know it's a bummer.

People should look at it if they haven't if they haven't found it. But yeah, it's a bummer. Two ships in the night. It's a bummer.

Yeah, I know that that part sucks, but then also the quality of receiver that they've had over the past couple of seasons.

Does that warrant that type of opportunity that you would see from a represent wide receiver one.

And then on the flip side, let's look at what DJ Moore has had to deal with over his seasons, over his last even since he entered a league back in 2018.

I mean, he went from Cam Newton. So yes, the accuracy, the aggressiveness as a pastor, all that was there. But then afterwards it was Kyle Allen.

Teddy Bridgewater. It was Sam Darnold. And then of course he had Indora. I think he durned her a little bit of Bryce Young.

But then after that Caleb in his first year when he was more scatter shot and trying to figure out how to get into the how to play within structure in 2024 and the same thing here.

I was looking at the completion percentage over expected metrics for all the quarterbacks that DJ Moore has played with over the entirety of his career.

Three times he's played with a quarterback that's ranked at top 10 or above. And now he gets to play with Josh Allen that we know is not just aggressive when he can be.

But also we know that since he's made a lot of the shifts in his approach to throwing the football.

He has been one of the more accurate quarterbacks in league. So delivering a quality pass to a quality receiver.

I know it sounds simplistic. Like when I say it, it's just, yeah, this is how you can get the type of production that you would want out of a wide receiver.

So am I pushing DJ Moore up into the second round? No, but I would say where he's probably going to be valued at, which I'm assuming is probably somewhere in the third-ish round.

Again, I can see that being at least a reasonable price for a wide receiver of his quality and also the offense he's going to be a part of.

Yeah, I bet it comes in even lower than that from an ADP standpoint. Yeah, he he never played with Bryce Young.

That was the year that he had with that. That's right. Yeah.

But that to that point though about Justin Fields, like just different quarterbacks and wide receivers see the game differently.

And like those two guys were on the same page. And I obviously Josh Allen is worlds better than Justin Fields, but just some of the throws that those guys like to make do overlap.

So I think that's why it's just a good pairing with DJ Moore here in addition to the fact that Josh Allen is awesome.

Okay, give me another one of your winners from Breedancy.

So my last winner is going to be Christian Watson. And I would just say that I say his name, but I would say that you could just expand that to be the Green Bay Packers wide receivers at all.

I mean, honestly, because when we talk about the crowded wide receiver rooms across the league, I mean, especially for the Packers, it's just if you play on a, let's say, efficient, but low volume type of passing game.

It's each week from a fantasy standpoint, who do you want in your lineup? Because we can talk about Christian Watson and the highs that he had.

But that was also at the expense of not having a healthy Jaden Reed for a part of the for part of the season Tucker craft also being there for most this season as well.

So it's just having to take all of that in context, but then let's just look at Christian Watson and how he performed in 2025 alone.

Active for 11 regular season games target share over 20% and five of them target share over 30% and two of them. I mean, you and I, we sat down and recapped a couple of those games where he was just going berserk.

And it was like multi and over like those short stretches where he was the team's leader in area arts, but also in targets as well. But then it's also be efficient targets that we started to see as well.

And over 30% of Jordan loves targets off of play action went to Christian Watson. So if we're thinking about play action targets as something of a forced multiplier from a production standpoint, and Christian Watson is getting those.

I mean, that's where it's that's where we should now start to really consider him as at least in that, let's say middish range like wide receiver to because there's still I would say some level of incompleteness to his game.

Even with Romeo dobs leaving to the Patriots and that's leaving some sort of avoid in the packers pecking order, it's how much of that can, can Christian Watson really take over because we think of Romeo dobs.

I mean, a lot of outbreakers, hitches, in breakers, a screen or two there for dobs can Christian Watson really form into or take over some of that from a route development standpoint, because really a lot of what Christian Watson was writing last season.

Go routes some intermediate to deep crossers mean those types of routes to really get get him in stride and keep him moving and allow him to use his speed in order to create those explosives.

So I mean, again, that's kind of wish casting to think that dot or Watson is going to take over a lot of that role, but at least he is a part of a team that at least the aggressiveness is going to be there.

Because Jordan love has ranked six or better in terms of air yards per attempt over the last three seasons also still continue to be efficient as a pastor when he's healthy.

I mean, the packers from an EPA per plate of per passing play standpoint ranked seventh or better for the last three seasons. So at least the infrastructure is there for Watson to continue doing what he's doing.

But the hope would be that he moves into this role or maybe a slightly larger role from a route development standpoint now with Romeo dobs in New England.

Yeah, it's just losing dobs like who just was the guy that was always on the field because he was that extra seabird it opens up opportunity for Watson who's coming off his best NFL season by a long margin at least to me.

I just was so impressed with what he did last year.

And he's right now easily their best perimeter receiver because they view Jaden Reed as a slot only player to this point.

And I have no idea what to think about Matthew golden like I got to go back and chart some of the Matthew golden stuff later in the year because beginning middle of the year it was.

Okay, so I do agree with you that Watson is certainly a winner here.

My last one and I'll just play the hits on this one.

All roads lead back to Lad Makaki.

I think he's a quiet winner from this week mainly because talked about this with Boone.

They're signing of Alec Ingold at full back and Charlie Kohlar at tight end clearly indicates that this team is going to be much more heavy personnel focused this year than they were last year.

I mentioned this step before but the charges were fifth in the NFL in terms of percentage of plays with three plus wide receivers overall last year.

It was actually higher on passing plays saw posts from Ryan Heath who already mentioned him twice on this episode.

Love to see that Ryan noted that wide receivers score 32% more fantasy points when fewer than three wide receivers are on the field.

Again last year charges were third McDaniel he had his fourth fewest on passing plays and again there moves this off season signing Kohlar as a.

Inline guy who can catch passes for sure but also is going to be an asset the blocking game and you know they're not just going to venture on day gets and signing Alec Ingold like they're going to be a pretty heavy personnel package team and they they view lad as a guy who's not like a slot only player he's never been that for them they played him on all the down so.

I think he's going to be on the field of time he's going to get that target concentration overall so big like quietly a big winner from free agency and he just the fact that they added Tyler be out of the center which will be a big upgrade we'll see about cold strange at garter placing Zion Johnson but again healthier offensive line new system heavier personal packages lad Maconkey's target per route rate is without question to me going to go up.

100% and now we saw that shift last season with some of his role from 2024 kind of getting peace parts out to some of the inclusions or even just.

Other players on the roster taking a step forward because a lot of the deep ball targets that we saw from 2024 some of those started to go to QJ here in his second or third season rather like as he's start to take a leap forward some of the third and fourth down work I mean while it was he had almost a quarter of those targets back in 24.

They fell with Keenan Allen starting to take over some of those like obvious passing situation type work so I agree with you that with that shift and also Mike McDaniel and especially during his first press or I think when he came on as the charger so see it was the discussion of let's make some laps let's try and make things as simplistic as possible for Justin Herbert I think a lot of that would have to do with having lad Maconkey get back into I'd say a fairly similar role to what we saw in his working season what we saw in 2025 so I agree that I think the.

The arrows pointing out from a conkey here in 2026 for sure.

Alright those are your winners coming out of free agency we're going to take a quick break we come back we'll talk through some folks who are losers after the first few days of free agency we'll get into that ready for this.

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All right we're back all right let's get let's get negative here Chris we got to do it.

Talking through some loot we don't they're making us let's be honest the Yahoo is making us be negative.

They said we need we need to hate headlines the hate bump okay so listen we're just we're just adjust expectations on these players maybe we can set it up that way so yeah let's manage expectations that's what we're going to be doing here today who's the first player Chris you want the people to manage expectations on it.

I actually for this guy I would say to have no expectations for other than maybe him personally performing great because I don't want any player coming after you I'll say breeze hall has to be on the losing side of this free agency period okay breeze breeze might actually be a loser like him.

That's really harsh the big the big red loser there looks really hard to watch yeah that looks great great graphic work as always on the show but right anyways so.

So God continue here continue here Chris but I do think Greece is probably feeling a little bit of a loser vibe you know coming I go saying with the Jets the whole deal anyways get into it.

Yeah because if you look at his situation right I means behind I'd say average to below average offensive line I mean they swap out john Simpson at left guard I think for Dylan par him from from the Raiders and if you're taking one of the Raiders cast off stuff we just saw what happened to Ashen Gentile last season I don't know how.

I don't know how I don't know how that really works out all that well but anyway still last season league average and run block win rate 19th and Justin yards before contact and we saw a lot of that in how breeze hall was trapped behind our offensive line on multiple runs.

But then it's not just the run blocking it just as as singularly it's that offense as a whole I mean defense they just don't respect the Jets passing attack I mean which puts more pressure on somebody like breeze hall in order perform I mean I'd look back over the past five seasons you know Garrett Wilson is there only a thousand yard receiver over the past five seasons nobody else that they've had on that roster as even met that a thousand yard receiver metric which isn't surprising what you say it out loud but it's like man.

It's like could you really not get anything else out of some of the receivers that have come through that door I mean from an EPA per pass play they've ranked 30 30th or below in two of the last three seasons 28th or below in four of the last five I mean it really does again put so much strain on your running game if there's no complimentary passing in order to go with it and it works vice versa.

I mean but this is also the thing that is so bothersome about all of it is that breeze hall is a it's a good running back I mean if not for just the the rushing portion of the game he's actually really effective as a receiver I mean all the way back in I think it was 2022 or 2023 he ranked third in yards per out run amongst all running backs 90 targets back then and since then it started to dwindle in terms of how often he's been targeting but still been efficient as a receiver as a receiver.

He continues to try and use them as much as use him as much as possible so I understand why they continue to give him touches and all phases of the game and he's effective in doing so but still without having the comp on any past game without having the blocking up front in order to really let him excel and no changes have really been made in order to address that in the off season yes trade back or bring Geno Smith back back into the locker room OK that's OK maybe get a little bit more competency under center not a more ton of front form and of course the receiving game.

Which again is still going to be an issue I mean that still leads me leave that this not much is going to change for breeze hall in 2026 as we've seen in 2024 or 2025.

Only thing I might disagree with you on is that I can think the offensive line could actually be decent this year some of the younger guys maybe take a step forward and I think you know but they're there to this point I think you're better pass protectors and run blockers to your overall point about the stats there but other than that it's like you want to say well can't get worse with Geno Smith under center the defense can't get worse and what I'm going to do is

the defense can't get worse and what it was last year it can always get worse it can always get worse OK so there is that but yeah I agree with you like there was some hope that breeze could get out of New York.

He was never getting out of New York they were always going to tag him it was always going to keep him around and it unfortunately just is what it is another running back that I think is a loser coming out of free agency Chris is bucky Irving number one.

The bucks wave goodbye to Rashad white well too bad because they go around and replace him with Kenny gain well and gain well is just a great yeah not great he's going to be there for long down the distance he's going to be kind of the design passing game guys as well I think that we do as a fantasy community and I don't know how to do this so like here's me pitching an idea without an actual solution we have to start differentiating guys who are like good in the passing game without just referring to how many balls they can.

Because like Bucky Irving you look at his rookie years like well he was good in the passing he was good in the screen game but in terms of like being involved doesn't act like like with routes and stuff like that to this point the bucks have not trust Bucky Irving with that and once they lost Liam Cohen the screen game God like that has just not been able to replicate itself last year I don't know if that's going to happen here with Zach Robinson we'll see getting gain well makes me hesitant to believe that it is going to happen.

And then they kind of changed their mind on Sean Tucker who they were going to let walk but then they decided to give the exclusive rights for agency designation he's sticking around the team he took goal line work away from Bucky Irving not to be clear.

Sean Tucker might not even make the roster like if they were that not convinced he was there's no he might not be Bucky Irving might end up being the goal I back but still gain well being involved I think does limit the ceiling of Bucky Irving and it is just fine to me Chris and this actually probably does dovetail with our basal student.

Conversation the fantasy community is funny like especially dynasty bros they're usually like hey.

Day three running backs who flash like don't get crazy about those guys okay like don't go over your skis.

Very selective in deciding when that happens because I didn't feel like there was any that hesitation with Bucky Irving.

Same with like cam's got to be same with like basal to it is if like you like the guy short throw that rule out if you didn't like the guy you know you go ahead and remember that rule.

It just feels like we should have a little bit of caution with Bucky as a as a past catcher but maybe I'm wrong about that.

Now I would say caution is the right term because I don't think anybody saying that his stock is completely plummeted or don't draft him at all but it's just should we now question what his usage is going to be in 2026.

I think that's the proper way to approach it because like you were just saying with the student conversation where do at least with the information we have right now.

Where do we think that the bucks really want to feature Bucky Irving because if it was to continue having him as your early down runner and then maybe still also have him as your third down pass catcher type role and then also as feature him on short yardage.

Well okay well then I would question the short yardage portion because they kept Sean Tucker to your point.

I would now also have to question his usage as a receiver because even if you want to question Kenny Gainwell's usage as a receiver in Pittsburgh as being part of a broken offense.

He was still effective in doing so he was still fifth in yards per round around around amongst most running backs like when he got when he was targeted.

So if they see him as being at least impactful in that phase now we have to question whether Bucky can take over that role or at least retake that role because towards the earlier parts of the season in the first month or so.

About a 15% target rate for Bucky Irving that fell off after he came back from injury and I would say for the first couple of weeks we could say that yeah he's getting back into the offense he's getting back into the swing of things.

But once it got later into the season and it's them thinking that they're going to push for a playoff playoff spot or whatever and he's still not getting the that rollback and Sean Tucker is still getting goal line carries and we're shot white is still getting targets and he's still trying to battle for that role.

I would have the same questions as you have about what his actual usage on field deployment is going to be in 2026 especially after these signings.

Both of our next two guys play for the Pittsburgh Steelers to stick on this Kenny Gainwell theme here so we can kind of double up on this one but give me yours which is the guy in the passing game first.

Yeah DK Metcalf I mean you trade for another wide receiver I would say anybody would have questions about what that usage for the incumbent is going to be moving forward.

But especially a guy like Michael Pittman who has had earned like no less than 20% of the team's targets over the last three seasons when he was in Indianapolis so you go from DK Metcalf having the competition of Calvin Austin MBS Adam Thielin who's traded for midway throughout the season Roman Wilson to I would say at the very least a legitimate wide receiver that DK Metcalf is going to have to compete with for targets.

And I mean we'll toss out who's going to be throwing in the ball because the whole Adam Adam Aaron Rogers of the of it all is really something that still up in flux really wish we get a decision on that but hey he does whatever he wants to do.

But I would say even still the 2025 usage for DK Metcalf would have us wanting more or at least have some questions about his wide receiver role status in 2026 and beyond because yeah he was sitting at a 23% target share on the season 12 games over 20%.

Couple games over 30% all great I mean these those numbers you think okay that's around like wide receiver one usage okay fine.

But he had just one game with double digit targets five games with five or fewer targets and so now you bring in a known target earner Michael Pittman it's not just the fact that he can earn or at least garner that opportunity but also where Michael Pittman typically runs his routes.

I mean a lot of folks will probably go to that highlight from DK Metcalf when they were overseas I think was playing the Vikings and he had that what short slot screen or whatever that he took for 70 yards and touchdown that would be Michael Pittman that would not be DK Metcalf like lining up in that spot and running that running that route.

Especially now with both of them on the field that would almost pigeon hole DK Metcalf into having more outsider perimeter work Michael Pittman placed the Z or in the slot and now you have more volatile work for for Metcalf moving forward and almost kind of pigeon holes him into the same situation he was in towards the back end of his time in Seattle.

So I would have some like really grave concerns about what Metcalf is going to be from a value standpoint he might be on field effective for the Steelers but not as effective for fantasy at least that's how I'm looking or trying to approach it here for 2026.

Yeah, Boone and I talked about this a lot and if it is Rogers under center like it just to me Michael Pittman fits his game at this moment a lot cleaner than were metcalf is so you and I are definitely on the same page with this one curious how you feel about Jalen Warren in the back looks like I kind of think he's a loser out of this too now.

The biggest loser is like anyone who drafted Caleb Johnson and dynasty last year like if you had like the little tiny hope that oh boy like don't worry he's going to come back in year to know he's not like Rico Dattle is going to be starting running back to this team and that's sort of where I worry about Jalen Warren to there there's been some headlines like oh he's going to move into Kenny Gainwell's role and I think he does fit that as a past catching back but.

Gainwell had that role because Rogers trusted him and loved him so much does he have the same affection for Jalen Warren again I'm assuming Rogers is the quarterback here if he's not then really everything's out of the window for Jalen Warren because then I just think like Rico Dattle is a better between the tackles runner at this point and is the guy that I think will be the favorite to lead the team and carries this year.

Noah's Mike McCarthy is a good runner he can also play on passing downs as well so I feel like for Warren to not be a complete loser he's got to be paired up with Aaron Rogers but to this point we'll see if that happens otherwise I think this is a pretty tough moment for Jalen Warren who I think will be behind we'll be behind Dattle to start the year at the very least.

Yeah I would think so at the very least to start the season and then it's almost even a worse situation than the Jalen Warren Kenny Gainwell discussion because at least with Gainwell we had at least some level of okay well Gainwell might not be the short yardage guy he's probably just more of the passing guy.

Alright so Warren might still get some of the early down touches and maybe get some short yardage work and then it's really going to be Gainwell once again to obvious passing situation so we could figure we at least over time we were able to figure out their roles.

But Rico Dattle kind of to your point we don't know what those two roles are going to be because Dattle can work in all phases of a running backs usage from fantasy standpoint effective as a receiver 1.36 yards per out run have the same explosive play rate as Derek Henry last year.

I mean he was just behind beach on Robinson early down effectiveness on first and second down his success rate was just about the same.

So if he can play and operate as essentially in every down running back and now you're going to pair with Jalen Warren who most folks would want to see as an every down running back or at least has been able to do so and over the last couple of seasons having to share that share that backfield.

It's just going to be more questions about how many touches are we going to have to divvy up between this backfield.

And to say nothing about Caleb Johnson about say Warren specifically if anybody had any hopes that he was going to not take a step forward and get more work.

Now he just runs right back into that RB two role with Rico Dattle coming into the full.

All right we just got to give one more loser here got to be quicker with these ones Chris give me one last guy that again managing expectations on after free agency.

Tyler Algear why I'll ask the I asked Tyler Algear why and I'm asking the Arizona Cardinals why it's like why.

We didn't need to do this why did we need to do this for the Cardinals standpoint they already had James Conner because they want to bring him back for another year trade Benson is on the roster at least through 2027.

All right then for now for now I sure and then for Algear if he had shown enough production the past that if he had tried to go to a team that at least had a larger or at least a larger opening.

Let's say if he wanted to go to the chiefs or at least he tried to at least fit in back with try to take it or fill the void that Kenneth Walker was going to leave in Seattle at least there at least a path to having a featured running back slot I could see that.

But now this is a team that is presumably trying to at least look at 2027 and beyond and forget whatever happens in the 2026 season so if you want to try and tell yourself that.

Algear is going to be the running back of the future when is that future going to start is it going to be in 2027 when they presumably try and draft their quarterback of the future or will be will it be the year after.

When they try and when the I'm assuming it's going to be maybe a new coaching staff or a new front office change at that point so it's just my concern with Algear and his mood and his path forward is just where is the value going to come from where the touch is going to come from and also in a situation such as such as the Cardinals.

It's just where is that offensive production going to come from in order to sustain him as a running back because really the only Cardinals players are going to be drafting are probably going to be.

Tight end maybe a wide receiver or two and that's it so I'm out on talent Algear for 2026.

I want to remain open minded on this one just because it should still be an ambiguous backfield who's a guy they just gave some money to but it would be a lot cleaner if James Conner wasn't going to be in the mix.

So I agree with you that makes it a little bit murky here. All right, for my last I want to say a guy that I think maybe manage expectations on.

I want your feedback on this because if anybody clips this I want to I want my caveat to be known that I'm just take shopping this right now.

I'm not like 100% saying this guy's going to suck this year anything like that.

I want that on the record if anyone's going to clip this this better be a part of the clip.

Okay, with that being said is Devon HN not a little bit of a loser coming out of free agency.

I just gave a great headline. They're definitely they're definitely clipping that one here.

Let me just say this is this is this is my thought obviously McDaniel leaving that stinks whatever here's the other thing with.

Devon HN a huge part of what has made him such an awesome fantasy player has been his ability as a pass catcher especially the last two years so this is where he ranks among running backs in certain passing metrics.

The last two years combined 175 targets that's second 145 catches that's first up 1,080 yards that is third at the running back position 240.5 half PPR points from passing plays alone.

The last two years that is first among running backs 43.7% of his total points have come on passing plays the last two years combined.

Are we not about to see him have a significant reduction in passing volume with two out and Malik Willis in again.

I don't know if I officially believe this but I do think given the history of mobile quarterbacks and how they often are not going to end so many just disgusting check downs from two over and over again the last couple of years.

Gross for football good for fantasy for Devon HN those are out the door and typically for a guy like Malik Willis he's going to take off and run before he gets to that point of progression so again I don't 100% believe this but I do think it's worth asking the question for HN right now.

And I think that's a fair question then it's also almost a corollary to what we were discussing with the breeze hall it's just if teams start to not respect the passing game because you don't have a guy like Mike McDaniel is your scheme or you don't have Tyrie kill there to help in terms of pulling safeties back and making sure that they have to respect the intermediate and deep parts of the field.

We start to see more stacked boxes for a guy like Devon HN who while he has been effective as a pass catcher has kind of struggle as a as a runner of at least in 2025 I mean last season was his highest stack box rate is stacked box rate or eight men in the boxes for around 40% last year.

Year beforehand 33% and he was splitting time with where he more is back in 2023 was around like all the way down to like around 17% so now if the passing game starts to struggle and team start to essentially figure out like what they're trying to do with Malik Willis like does that start to then impact both the rushing and passing game that we would assume HN is going to be a part of see I have similar questions so I would say I mean that for that graphic about Devon HN being a loser like loser with like an asterisk next to it like we do that like again.

Yeah, it's like yeah, I think that's that's where I'm at so I I agree that he could potentially be a loser just looking at how the dolphins are set up for 2026 as of right now listen I want to know pun intended here to talk in dolphins I wanted to go for a bigger fish here I know that please don't ask me about you for an oceanography you don't I don't at me about oceanography jokes okay please but I wanted to go for a bigger fish here and he's like jam and war and a loser coming out for nobody cares okay

but if Devon HN stock is on the decline that's actually something we're talking about so again we're simply asking questions here on the out of fantasy forecast we're going to take another quick break we come back we're going to break down biggest fantasy questions we've each got one coming out of for agency we'll get into that red after this

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exception supply sees eye for details all right we're back so we've talked winners and losers real quick before we get out of here

Chris and I are each is going to throw out our pressing question coming out of free to see in something that again we don't have answers for

right now but we're just considering over the next few months of the offseason mine is how are we going to rank these bucks wide

receivers post Mike Evans departure because obviously mecha book a first round pick had a good rookie year even if obviously it was on ups and

downs and mostly big up and then big down as the season went on still a player I think we're optimistic about Chris Godwin power slot

he's back Jalen Macmillan flashed at the end of the year I think this is going to be a topic of debate in the offseason in fantasy

for me I'm I'm still marinating on it because especially I don't totally know how all three of these guys are going to fill out

from a role perspective but what I do like is that Zach Robinson the OC who was with Atlanta he got everybody slot

reps in 2024 all of Darnell Mooney Drake London Kyle pits and Ray Ray McCloud took over 35% of their routes from the slot I think that's a good

piece of information to consider as we think about these bucks guys because they all do need some work from the slot at least in my

opinion so definitely something I'm going to be thinking about over the coming months Chris what is the question you have coming out of free

agency so my question is how hyped or how much should I really get into this

saints offense for 2026 because towards the back end of 2026 I know we talked about I called it as the saints are

going to be the wild card team come out of the NFC South on our last show with Fitsy Boone and both of us right but now they add

Travis ETN another year with Chris Alave in this system with Kellyn Moore we have seen at least some sparks from

that offense with Tyler Schuck under center so now I have at least a bit of excitement I'm trying not to get

over excited but now with the add the additions and also added in no a fan as a tight end so it's like not a bunch of needle movers

but enough cumulatively cumulatively that they should be able to at least put together an offense that we should want to continue to invest in in 2026

so I'm excited about it again I don't want to get over my seas because after they ended having to throw passes to

Dante Pettis it's like now we can add a bit more juice to this offense so I'm really hoping to I'm really excited to see

what the saints look like in 2026 well it's a good thing we got to get out of here because you're asking the wrong guy

I'm already way too excited about the saints offense and I'm going to feel I need to talk myself back over the

course of these next few months so I'm with you on the optimism and I liked the ETN and Edwards signing as well

that is going to do it for today's show Chris great to have you back awesome to break it down with you

appreciate you jumping on here and hopefully hopefully we don't get clip too hard for some of our losers

we will see how that goes so good to see you Chris good to talk with you as always this show will be back

on Monday with another edition of mock draft Monday we've got Danny Kelly from the ringer coming in

electric set of players to break down with him and then on Tuesday we're going to be back live with Justin

Boone at 2 p.m. Eastern on our YouTube channel and we are opening up the panic meter that's right

who are you guys freaking out about post-free agent edition send in your post-free agency panic

to fantasy mailbag at yahoo sports dot com and we're going to do our best to answer all of them

fill that mail back up I'm really excited dynasty base redraft whatever it is send your panic emails

again fantasy mailbag at yahoo sports dot com until then we are out

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hmm one ice coffee 99 cents please for real no way

hmm one ice coffee 99 cents please for real no way

what a deal your new morning groove ice coffee from McDonald's any size for just 99 cents

till 11 a.m. price and participation may vary cannot be combined with any other offer

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