Gold & Silver Bottom, Bitcoin Cracks as War and Oil Spike Hit Markets

This is Peter Schiff for the shift gold Friday market rap. And it was a interesting week

to put it mildly for the precious metals. And I think there's a very good chance that

they bottom this week. In fact, gold early Monday morning, almost hit 4,100 even. I think

it got to around 41 20. Silver was down maybe at 63, 64 dollars. Gold and silver, though

both close positive on the week. So taking out the prior weeks lows and then closing

positive, gold closed just under 4,500, finished up about $120 today. In fact, at one point,

it was up about $175 on Friday. And silver was up about $1.3 quarters closed just below

70 cents. I think 69, 63. We were above 70 cents earlier in the day. But both gold and silver,

I think put in bottoms. You can't say that for the overall stock market, which I think has put

in a top and is poised to move significantly lower. What is driving this train right now is oil

and the price of oil. And of course, that is being driven by the war. And we had a lot of

volatility related to Donald Trump's posts about the war on Saturday morning. And again,

on Monday morning on Saturday morning, he basically posted an ultimatum to the Iranian. Is that

if they didn't open up the straits within 48 hours, they were going to have all of their power

plants bombed. And so they would basically be in the dark. It was going to be lights out

for the Iranians. And then instead of following through with that thread,

early Monday morning, as markets were coming under pressure, because of the threat,

Trump all of a sudden posted everything is great. Five day pause. We're having very productive

conversations with the Iranians. And it's looking good. And so we don't have to bomb them. And then

the markets rally. Now of course, none of this was probably true. I don't know if the ultimatum

was real. And I don't think the peace talks were real. Now the Iranians denied them, but I don't

necessarily believe what the Iranians say. But I don't believe what Trump says because Trump lies

about just about everything. So why am I going to think it's any different when it comes to

this war? You know, in fact, Trump got elected promising not to have a war.

Specifically with Iran, that was a big part of the election. Hey, vote for Kamala,

and it's a vote for war with Iran. And you know that Trump is this ingenuous because he's claiming

that the reason we're having a war against Iran is because of the last 50 years of bad stuff that

Iran has done to us. Well, he knew about all that bad stuff when he ran for reelection.

Why didn't he say that one of the things he was going to do was kick some Iranian ass

that he was going to declare war on Iran to get back at 50 years of violence against Americans

going back to the hostages in the Jimmy Carter days. Why didn't he make it clear that he was

going to start a war with Iran if people voted for him because people didn't want to vote for a war.

And so now, I mean, nothing has changed since Trump won the election about Iran.

They're no big, they're no more of a threat now than they were when Biden was president,

yet we have this war. So who knows why we're fighting it. But I do think I know why we're going

to end it. It's not going to be related to Iran. It's going to be related to oil, the bond market,

the economy, inflation, housing, the stock market. And in fact, I think Iran knows

that the financial markets are the best weapon they have because they can't outgun us.

They can't beat us militarily, but they can force us to surrender. All they have to do is stick

it out long enough to ratchet up the economic pain. And as Trump's poll number sink, he's already

at the lowest he's been of his presidency in either term. But it's about to go even lower,

given what's about to happen in the markets. Now, who knows what kind of truth social posts

we're going to get this weekend. I'm sure something's going to happen,

but I'm also sure that it's likely to be another lie. But there could be a lot of volatility.

But again, I think gold was bottomed out. Silver was bottomed out. I would be a big buyer.

This is a massive head fake. I know I didn't expect it. Not that many people expected war

with Iran to result in a big drop in the price of gold because war with Iran is bullish for gold.

And that hasn't changed based on this sell off. It's still bullish. In fact, the longer the war

goes on, the more bullish it is. But the way the markets have been trading, if the war ends on

Monday, gold's going up several hundred dollars on Monday. Because right now everybody is focused

on interest rates in the Fed. That's what got gold prices going down. The idea that the rate cuts

were on hold. And now they're talking about rate hikes. But it doesn't matter if the Fed cuts rates

are not. What matters is inflation is soaring. And so real rates are plunging. And the Fed is not

going to hike. And even if it does hike, they're talking 25 50 basis points. They would have to hike

several hundred basis points to close the gap between inflation and interest rates, which they

can't do. In fact, let's look at what's happening in the markets that are going to be putting a

lot of pressure. The Dow had a bad week. The month is not quite over yet because we still have a

couple of more days left of March early next week. But the Dow was down 2.3% for the week.

S&P down 3.5% even worse, the Nasdaq, the tech heavy Nasdaq, crushed by 4.7%. Now all the major

indexes now are at least 10% below their highs. So that's official correction territory.

I think if the war continues for another week or two, we'll be in bear market territory.

And it could continue for a lot longer than that. But even if we declare victory and basically

surrender, but turn it into the greatest victory in the history of warfare, oil is not going to collapse.

It'll go down, but it's not going back down to where it was. And we still have to pay

for what we blew up and we may have to pay to rebuild. In fact, Trump, after that truth social

post, he sent some kind of peace plan to the Iranians. And the Iranians basically flat out

rejected it and submitted their own terms, which amounted to unconditional surrender by the United

States. So the two sides are at polar opposites. They're entrenched in positions that are

complete non-starters to the other side. Now Trump says we've been having all these

negotiations, but based on the positions of the parties, they couldn't have possibly negotiated

because their positions now are where you are before you negotiate. Nobody has compromised

a nickel. Each side is, I get everything, you get nothing. So there's no negotiations when

that's where you are. You're posturing to potentially negotiate, but the negotiations that Trump

claims are going great likely have not even started. In fact, before Trump claimed that

there was successful negotiations, he said he didn't want to negotiate, that there was no

one to negotiate with, that they were all dead, right? But anyway, so gold, as I already mentioned,

was up. Gold was up 2.2% on the week, approximately. Silver up about 3.3%. And gold stocks had a

bit of a balance. The GDX was up 4.5%. Bucking the trend of lower stock prices overall and rising.

And so next week though, I think could be an even bigger week, especially if gold continues to

follow through. And I think gold is going to rise as rapidly as it declined, maybe even faster,

as people realize that they've got this whole thing wrong, that the war is not bearish for gold,

but bullish. And the main thing about it is how expensive it is. Again, Treasury Secretary,

I mentioned this on my main podcast and make sure you watch my last podcast. I was over an hour,

but I went over a lot of important stuff. So if you didn't listen to my podcast on my main channel,

Peter Schiff, listen to that one after you finish with this one. To get a lot of the points,

I don't want to repeat myself here, but there's a lot of important stuff that you've got to hear.

On that podcast. And by the way, if you're not currently a subscriber to this podcast,

we now finally have more than 50,000 subscribers to the Schiff Gold YouTube channel.

But that's a fraction of the 600 plus that I have on my main channel.

But we had over 100,000 people that watched last week's market rap. So at least 40,000 of 50,

60,000 of them or 50,000 of them had to subscribe. So if you are watching this podcast right now,

take a quick break and hit the subscribe button and hit the like button while you're out of two.

So like and subscribe and maybe throw in a comment. But I really want to get the subscribers up

to 100,000 at a minimum on this channel. But anyway, getting back to the market. So I think we're

going to see a bigger move as investors really come to terms with just how bullish this is.

Oh, yeah, I was talking about the cost. So I was watching Scott Bessett. And I did mention this

on the other podcast. He was on meat depressed over the weekend. And when he was asked if you're

going to raise taxes to pay for the war, his response was, that's a ridiculous question.

How could you ask such a stupid question? Of course, we're not going to raise taxes to pay for

the war. So how are they going to pay for the war with bigger deficits with money printing,

the way they pay for all wars now. And so that's bullish for gold. In fact, the national debt is

going to rise in 2026 by a larger amount than it did in any year that Biden was president.

In fact, consumer prices, the CPI is probably going to increase in 2026 by a larger amount

than in any calendar year under Biden. In fact, again, look at the import export prices for

February. They skyrocketed, annualized to about 18% inflation. That was before March. The war

started March 1st. Oil prices have gone up 50% this month. None of that was in the February

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And if you remember the big inflation of the Biden era, the first sign of it was in import

export prices. And I kept pulling that out of my podcast. I kept saying forget about the CPI.

Look at these import export prices. There are the, this is where it happens first.

You're going to see it in the producer price. You're going to see the consumer prices. And I was

right. And the Fed was completely wrong to ignore it. The same thing is happening again. We're going

to have a surge in consumer prices, but it started with the import and the export prices,

which are not manipulated. There's no hedonics. There's no substitution. They're more honest

prices. And that is what is is going on. Now also, look at what happened with Bitcoin.

Bitcoin down 6.8% on the week. This is blowing up the BS narrative that the Bitcoiners were promoting.

That Bitcoin was taken over gold, safe haven mantle. That look, gold went way down during the war

and Bitcoin went up. Well, now Bitcoin didn't go up. Bitcoin is lower now than it was when the war

started. Maybe it hasn't lost as much as gold yet. I haven't checked. But Bitcoin, as I'm speaking,

is barely holding on to 66,000. It did trade below 66. It traded 65,000 in change

earlier in the day. It's now just above 66,000. But Bitcoin was down big on the week while gold was

up on the week. And I think Bitcoin is on the verge of a major crash. Let's see what happens when it

gets below 60,000. It may make a beeline for 40,000. So this is going to blow up that narrative

that Bitcoin has taken over for gold. In fact, I think as Bitcoin breaks down, gold is going

to soar. In fact, gold going up could be the catalyst that pricks the Bitcoin bubble.

Because Bitcoin is not only not digital gold, it is digital anti gold. It is negatively correlated

with gold. And so if gold didn't bottom this week and is about to rally, then Bitcoin is about

to collapse because it goes the opposite. Oil, oil rose about three bucks, I think. It closed

last week around 98, I believe. And as I'm speaking right now, we're almost at $101 about,

we're $100.90. So this is the first weekly close since the war began four weeks ago.

Where oil is above 100, Brent is about 114 and a half. So it's interesting too that we had this

big up day in oil today, but we didn't have a down move in gold. Gold has been inverse recently

because higher oil prices have pushed down bond prices. And bond prices were in fact lower again

today. They closed off their lows because I think there was a Fed governor that came out and spoke,

dovishly about high rate hikes. And so that helped lift the bond market off the lows.

But the yield on the 10 year treasury closed at 4.44%. No, it looks like 4.42.

It was 4.43. Okay, so now it's still trading, 4.43. So I don't know exactly where it's going to

settle. It got up to about 4.48. I think at one point before that Fed governor talked.

And the yield on the 30 year right now is 4.96. I think I saw that maybe as high as 4.99.

It was at least 4.98, almost 5%. Now if you recall, the level that caused Trump to pause the

liberation day terrace. Remember liberation day was April Fool's Day, right? April 1st.

And on April 9th, that's when Trump paused all those massive reciprocal tariffs. And he said

that the bond market got yippy. And the level where the bonds were trading when they were yippy

was 4.51 to 4.52. Just above 4.5%. Well, we're almost there now. We almost got the 4.5.

So the market is not quite yippy. But by next week, it will not only be yippy. It could be yippy.

The bond market could fall even more now than it did back then. Yields could rise even higher.

So, you know, is the president going to tackle out just based on the collapsing bond market,

which is also going to wreak havoc in the stock market and the real estate market. In fact,

by the way, one of the ways the Trump administration is trying to bail out Bitcoin is they just allow

and they announced this yesterday that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are going to guarantee mortgages

where the down payment comes from Bitcoin only. So for example, if somebody is buying a $500,000

property, they don't have to put up anything. Let's say the down payment is 20%, which would be

$100,000. Instead of putting up $100,000, you can just post $250,000 worth of Bitcoin.

And they will loan you $100,000 against that Bitcoin, which you will then use to make your down payment.

Now, the problem with this is what happens if the price of Bitcoin goes down.

Right? All that collateral is lost. And now the homeowner doesn't really have any equity.

And so what happens when you have no equity, right? You put a down payment, but the down payment

has gone. Normally your down payment is still there. But if your down payment was Bitcoin and you

never sold the Bitcoin and Bitcoin crashed. And now, you know, that the lender of course now has

a second loan on your property for the 100,000 he loans you. So you have a $100,000 second

you have a $400,000 first and you have no equity. You walk away from the mortgage. So

these type of loans are going to make it more likely that more FHA, I mean, Fannie and Freddie

insured mortgages go into default and that more of the defaults result in losses for the lender.

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But the only reason the government would have Fanny and Freddie do this is so people who are

buying homes don't have to sell their Bitcoin to pay for them. They're trying to figure out

how they can keep people from selling their Bitcoin. Now they say, hey, you don't have to sell your

Bitcoin if you need to house now. Just pledge your Bitcoin. You still have all the upside of the

Bitcoin, but you don't have to sell it. And you don't have to pay the taxes. Because if you sell

your Bitcoin, if you bought it a long time ago, people who bought Bitcoin recently, like Michael

Sailor, they just got losses. But if you bought it 10, 15 years ago, you have a big gain. And if you

sold, you'd have a big tax bill. But by not selling, you avoid the tax bill. Of course,

that costs the government money because now the government doesn't get the taxes that you would

have paid had you sold your real estate to buy the house. But I think one of the reasons that the

Trump administration wants to make it easy for people to buy a house and not sell their Bitcoin

is to keep the Bitcoin off the market because Bitcoin is crashing. And so they're trying to minimize

the selling by allowing this to happen. But it's not going to work because Bitcoin is going to keep

going down. And this just proves, I don't know how many people think that they're going to privatize

fan and Freddie when they're being utilized in this manner. The government is using them to advance

political agendas. And they're not making economically viable decisions. They're just doing things that

serve the political interest of the Trump administration, which doesn't necessarily serve the

economic interest of the country. In fact, most of the things that serve Trump's interest,

personally, harm the nation collectively. And that is, and that is a big problem. But anyway,

so oil prices moving up, yields moving up, the dollar relatively flat. The dollar index

closed right about a hundred. I think we're just below it. So yes, the dollar is a little stronger

and people are talking about the stronger dollar. And by the way, Donald Trump now is going to

start signing our money. For the first time ever, normally it had the secretary of the treasury

signature on there. But apparently Donald Trump wants his signature on our money. Now I guess

it could have been worse. He could have tried to put his picture on the money. But instead,

we're just going to have his John Hancock. But I think maybe it's fitting that as the dollars

about the crash, it's got Trump's brand on it. But in any event, for all to talk about the strength

of the dollar. For all to talk about a strong dollar, the dollar is not really strong. I mean,

it went up a little bit and it didn't fall. But it's not the type of strength that you would have seen

in the past when you have this type of military situation, this kind of a war in the Middle East,

you would have normally saw a much bigger rise in the dollar than you're seeing now.

Like when we had under under Bush, you know, Herbert Walker, we had Desert Storm. When we went in

there, there was a big rally and there's a big rally with George W. When we went into Iraq, I mean,

so what we've seen now is kind of a shadow of the flight to quality. And I'd never considered

the dollar quality, but that's how it was looked at. That's how it was perceived. But this is a

very muted rally. And I think we're getting ready for a big decline in the dollar because everything

that's happening is bearers for the dollar, bigger budget deficits, higher inflation, a bear market

and stocks, a collapse in real estate prices, which is coming, a financial crisis. If the war continues,

we have a financial crisis. The only way to try to avert it or postpone it is massive money printing,

rate cuts, everything that they do to avoid another financial crisis. That's worse than 2008

is bearers for the dollar and bullish for gold. So people should be loading up on gold and silver now

and getting out of their dollars, getting out of their Bitcoin, getting out of overpriced US stocks

and bonds. Because either way, if the war continues, it's bad. If the war ends, you know,

it's going to be bad. And in fact, all of the problems that the US economy had predate the war.

The economy was slowing dramatically, Q4 GDP, just 0.7 inflation was soaring,

prices were really starting to soar before the war started. The war is just going to take a bad

situation and make it worse. The only thing the war is going to do for Trump is give him escape

gold. Because the economy was going to get weaker anyway, because inflation was going to be a lot

higher anyway, now Trump can say it's all because of the war. Because it's going to happen,

it's going to manifest itself in a big way during the war. So Trump is going to be able to say,

we had the greatest economy in the history of the world up until this war started, which we had

no choice. We had to fight this war because the Iranians were on the verge of nuking us.

So, you know, we had to fight this war and I had to disrupt the greatest economy in the history

of the world. But don't worry. As soon as we win this war and we will win it, it will be the greatest

victory in the history of warfare. And when we have this supreme glorious victory, then the economy

is going to boom once again. In fact, it'll boom even more than it boom before. It will be even

greater than the greatest economy you've ever had. That'll be the greatest economy ever.

The one that we have at the end of this successful war. So the war is going to be the gift that

keeps on giving politically because it's going to be a great scapegoat for Trump. Even better than

the Fed and the Fed didn't cut in time or blame in the Supreme Court for getting rid of his beautiful

tariffs. I think the war is going to be a more helpful excuse for Trump to try to basically

throw everything. Kind of like COVID was, right? COVID, well, you know, everything got bad. Well,

it's all because of COVID, right? This is all going to be because of this war that, of course,

we didn't have to fight. See, people won't, we'll forget about that. But also,

I think everything that's happening, the weakness in the economy pretty much hands the midterm

elections to the Democrats on a silver platter. Not only will the Democrats retake the House,

which was pretty much a foregone conclusion from the beginning based on how, you know,

how close the margins were and the fact that the party and power always loses some seats in the

House in the midterms. So you would have expected the Democrats to get the House back,

which is what happened to Trump during his first term, right? He had the House and then lost it.

But I think the Republicans will get the Senate. And so, I mean, the Democrats will get the Senate.

And that's a bigger deal. But now the Republicans, the Democrats will have both houses of Congress.

And, you know, they won't have a 60 seat majority. So they won't necessarily be able to do whatever

they want there. But they'll be able to disrupt a lot of stuff. But more significantly is the direction

the country is going to be headed. Because I think that things will be so bad by the general

elections in 2028 that not only will the Democrats get the White House in 2028,

but they'll get enough additional Senate seats to have 60. And then they'll have it all.

And these aren't going to be your father's Democrats or your grandfather's Democrats. These

are going to be the most socialist Democrats imaginable. You're talking, you know,

Maldami, AOC, Sanders, the squad, because this disaster of an economy that's going to take place

on Trump's watch is going to be blamed 100% on Republicans because the Republicans embraced it.

And it's going to be blamed on everything Republicans supposedly stand for,

which is going to be capitalism, free markets, you know, business, you know, entrepreneurship,

deregulation, keep the government off our backs, let the market function.

Even though that's not what the Republicans practice, they may have preached it,

but they practice the opposite. Trump is one of the biggest socialists in the White House. He's

about as far from Ronald Reagan as any Republican has ever been. But that's not the way he's perceived.

And that's not the way he marketed himself. And so it's going to be very easy for the Democrats

to bury capitalism to say, you see, look at what greedy capitalism did, you know, unchecked capitalism,

greed, big business, they wrecked the economy just like they erected no ape, but they erected

worse this time. We need government to take over the government has to get in control to make sure

the economy works for everybody for the little guys, not just the fat cats and the billionaires,

but we need a economy that really works. And only the government can do that. We need to

essentially plan and control the economy for that helps workers and helps everybody,

bullshit, bullshit, bullshit. But the public is just dumb enough to buy it.

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deserves to get to their destination safely. And the circumstances are going to be bad enough

that they'll be willing to take a shot at these promises. But what they're not going to want is

four more years of what the Republicans brought. So all of this is good for gold.

Because if you thought the deficits were bad under Trump, wait till you see what happens

under the next round of socialists, especially when the Democratic socialists control the White

House, the Senate, and the House have carte blanche to spend whatever they want, to print whatever

they want, to run whatever debt they want. They will run the dollar into the ground. They'll

destroy the economy. And who knows where gold is going to go. I mean, 10,000 will be cheap,

20,000. Who knows? But the dollar is going to go through the floor. Gold is going to go through

the roof. And so I think the sooner that you could buy. So again, as I've been saying, I know I

didn't anticipate this big drop. But you know what? There's an expression about a gift horse.

And don't look this one in the mouth. Don't ask any questions. Just take advantage of it because

it won't be long before people realize what's happening here and how bullish this is for gold.

And there may have been some countries or somebody that needed to sell some gold right away because

they had to stock up on oil or I don't know what happened to drive a rush for liquidity.

But the war was very disruptive right away. Nobody obviously expected it, right? It was a surprise

that we just started the war, even though we had been building up our truth strength in the region.

I don't think people were prepared for that. In fact, obviously we were in the middle of negotiations.

So the Iranian probably thought it was just a show of strength while they were negotiating.

And the meantime, we just started bombing them. But this war is not going to go the way the

president plans. Just like nothing goes the way the president plans. I mean, I don't even know

if they have a plan. I think they're just flying by the seat of their pants and they're just

winging everything and they're just putting out posts on truth social like trial balloons.

And they're seeing what happens to them. And the last one went down like the Hindenburg.

So I don't know how many more trial balloons they're going to be they're going to be floating there.

But in the meantime, this is a great opportunity. It's a great opportunity to buy more golden silver.

It's a great opportunity to buy these mining stocks, which hadn't even bigger pullback.

A much better pullback. Now I know that higher oil prices are going to be a negative for the

gold mining stocks. I mean, but when oil was so cheap, it wasn't really a positive. The market

never really credited the mining stocks for just how cheap oil was. So I don't think that they

have anything to give back. Now that oil isn't cheap at $100 a barrel. But gold prices and

silver prices are going to keep on rising. And the top line revenue is going to be more important

than that line item. Yes, oil being equal, it would have been better for gold stocks if oil was

still $60. But even at $100, there's still a steal at the current prices. In fact, I think there's

still a steal at the prices they were at a month ago before we had this 30% pullback on the war.

So again, take advantage of that too. Don't just buy gold and silver from shift gold. And don't

forget about T gold. If you're a shift gold customer, but you're not also a T gold customer,

make sure and set up your account and buy a little T gold and start building up your account.

So you have some gold that you'll be able to use as money, as a medium exchange.

Because in the years ahead, when we have maps of inflation and it becomes difficult

to deal in dollars and more and more people don't want dollars. They want an alternative to the

dollar. The number one alternative will be gold. And the most convenient way to trade in gold

will be through online, through tokenized gold or through platforms where you can move the

ownership of gold without moving the physical gold. You have the physical gold nice and safe

and evolved. And all that has to change hands to have commerce is the ownership of that gold.

And whether it's through a token or any other means, we have the technology to make

engaging in commerce and paying and being paid in gold easier, more efficient than it's

ever been in the past. See, people keep accusing me when I, I don't want Bitcoin. I like goals

and petership. You're living in the past. No, I'm not. I'm living in the future. Gold is the future.

Soon Bitcoin is going to be the past. Bitcoin has no future, but gold does. It has a very bright

future. So make sure and also establish your, your T gold account and, you know, go to your

pack.com, talk to the representatives there about our strategies, our gold, a focused investment

strategies and separately managed accounts or just pick up the gold fund. The Europe Pacific

gold fund can be bought no load at any discount broker. EPG IX is the symbol for that fund and you

can download a prospectus and read all about it at my website at europack.com. Again,

have a great weekend everybody, you know, watch, watch for the news coming out of truth social.

I don't know how many people actually use truth social. I never actually use it directly,

but whatever he posts is quickly reposted on X, which is the platform that I do pay attention to.

So I'll be looking for a repost of whatever Trump decides to post. But again,

take it with a grain of salt. But if it produces a sell off, if for some how Trump posts something

about escalating the war and the markets react, they buy even more gold, buy even more silver,

because either he's going to reverse course or the market's going to reverse on its own. Anyway,

I don't know if I'm going to do the podcast next Friday, the shift gold market wrap. I will be at C

in the British Virgin Islands. And so I may do one. I may do one from C, depending on how big the

week is. But if I decide not to record one, you'll know why. It's just because I'm on vacation.

You know, it's a Easter vacation. And of course, the following Sunday will be Easter Sunday.

The kids have time off from school. So we're not going to be coming back here to Puerto Rico

until the Monday, after Easter school resumes, I think on that Tuesday. And so if I don't do one,

have a happy holiday, everybody. Enjoy your Easter, your Passover Passover is going to be starting

on the boat. So we've already packed a bunch of matzah. And we're actually going to have our

SATA, the first ever SATA at C on our boat. But anyway, again, don't forget, I mentioned it once,

but I'll mention it twice because it's important. Subscribe to this YouTube channel. If you are not

now a subscriber and you didn't describe, subscribe 20 minutes ago, what I told you to. Now you can do

it now and like it and tell your friends to watch, listen to this podcast on this YouTube channel.

And also subscribe to the shift gold weekly market wrap. Bye for now.

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