Housing Crash Report: What You NEED to KNOW

0:00So you were promised a 38% housing crash in 2026. I thought we should look at the data. Realtor.com just posted the top 10 cities where home prices are falling the fastest. Now again, I will remind you we were promised a 38% national housing crash. Of course, that was never going to happen in 2026. But hey, where are home prices crashing in the United States right now? Now I went ahead and got the top five. You can go ahead and look up realtor.com. I found it on X. I think their list is a top 10, but frankly, six through 10 were basically nothing. So let's go through the top five. Number five, San Antonio, Texas. If you've been investing in San Antonio, San Antonio, Texas the last year. You have seen home prices crater crash fall off a cliff.

1:003.6%. Yep, they're down 3.6% in 2020 in the last 52 weeks. Oakland, Oakland, California, down 3.9%. Memphis comes in at number three, a whopping 4.1%. Tampa, down 5.6%. And the number one city crashing across the United States is Austin, Texas down a whopping 8.1%. Now again, these numbers are nowhere close to 38%. Many of these markets are already showing signs of healing. But there you go. According to realtor.com, those are the top five real estate markets that are crashing. Scott Bessent is all over the wires. In fact, he makes an announcement in about 28 minutes talking about buying back the long end of the curve that will be market moving no doubt.

2:02Wall Street is expecting him to double it to at least four billion from used to be two. Some people have a whisper number of five billion. So again, we will see what happens. But Scott Bessent said, and I quote, I am the house now. Basically making reference to casinos and the fact that casinos always win. He has some special insight into the Japanese government and what's going on with currencies. So he is daring traders to test his resolve. I don't know about you, but that seems like a risky move. I don't know if you guys have researched this or looked this up, but if you haven't look up bank of England, the bank of England likely had a Scott Bessent back then. And it was George Soros and company who broke the bank of England. Now, of course, the bank of England is dwarfed by the size of the US treasury.

3:05No doubt, it would likely take a lot more than that to break the US. But I don't know that I would be throwing out such a Cavalier comment, but again, he is very sure of himself. And then lastly, Scott Bessent says, you can bet against me if you want. All right, Scott, let's see what you're long in buybacks will be in what now about 27 minutes. So we got mortgage demand looks like mortgage demand is falling with rates rising. Total applications down 2.7 refinances fell 6.2%. On a negative note, adjustable rate mortgage or arms now make up 8.5% of all applications. Be careful. Be careful. We are not a fans of arms on this channel. Arms are what created the 2008 catastrophe after 2006.

4:05Originations. So be extra careful. Don't you see this yet, but apparently a former researcher and on the topic is saying, AI could kill us all. Yes, kill every human alive in the next 10 years. He says there's a greater than 10% chance that AI will kill all of us in the next 10 years. What are we doing? Who the hell is running communications at companies like this? Why you want to get the government involved and just decommission data centers and burn them to the ground? You're going to get some crazy wackadoos out there. Do some stupid shit because of this. Why? If AI is dangerous enough to kill us all in 10 years, isn't AI also strong enough to defend? I mean, I don't get it. How about unplug the damn thing? I don't get it. But again, more scary headlines from AI and the topic in open AI.

5:11Telling us all that we're going to be dead in a decade. Is that what Elon Musk meant by we won't care about money in the future? I don't think so, but if we're all dead, I guess money is irrelevant. So I don't know. I don't know what's going on over there. These people are freaking crazy in my opinion. What else is going on? Mike Simonson's always good for an update on housing. 21 states have more sellers than last year. So again, selling is up in 21 states. 29 have fewer sales. These are sales, not sellers. I think I said sellers sales. So 21 states have more sales than last month. 29 fewer. And again, I said last month, man, I got to slow down last year. Let's try that one more time. Get the facts straight. 21 states have more sales than last year. Ah, there we go. 29 of them had fewer. So again, slowing down in more than half of the states.

6:12Active inventory is up to 1.1 million or 4.5%. But it is contracting in the West. So a lot of that growth is in the South. Gunlock, Jeffrey Gunlock's out making some noise. Not sure if you guys caught this yesterday, but he said, fed funds need to rise 50 basis points. Now, Gunlock is not currently calling for the fed to raise 50 at the next meeting next week. But he is saying it needs to go higher by 50 basis points. The two year in the fed funds rate are misaligned, meaning the feds got to do their job, get them back and sink. And the US yields are set to keep rising. Kathy Wood, again, recommended that I check out Kathy Woods writing. She wrote some stuff about 200 railroads went bankrupt in the 1800s. She thinks the AI bailout or build out AI build out won't end the same way. Now, folks, if you study technology and big innovations through the test of time,

7:17all of them go through the same arc. They are created. They are celebrated. Money flies to them. Too much money flies to them. Then the ultimate happens, the money lights on fire, and then out of the ashes come the strongest players. Kathy Wood says not going to happen this time, to which I say, really Kathy, AI is going to be the thing that changes history. I don't think so. And of course, I'm on record saying open AI will go down in history books as the company that lit the most money on fire. But that will be that will be for the history books in the next five to 10 years. What else? That's all I got for page one. Let's go to page two. Oh, yes, the economist, we talked about this very briefly yesterday, not much left in the article. Really the headline being what we discussed yesterday. AI has already created one million new jobs. Again, there seems to be a concerted effort to paint a better picture of AI.

8:17And then of course this morning we have entropic research is saying AI is going to kill us all. So they can't seem to get their story straight, but I don't get it. Don't know if you've seen Dr. Copper, folks again, copper being one of the commodities. Dr. Copper is called that because it often preludes recessions or inflation. And Dr. Copper is at or near an all time high telling us that inflation might be on the way. Mohammed LRN somebody I really respect and follow his writings and when he speaks, the Fed will likely be the only central bank not to hike. He thinks the bank of Japan will go the bank of England and the ECB all three will hike, but the US will not. I wonder what that means for the in carry trade if the Japanese raise and we don't. I don't know, let's see. Again, folks, remember I am trying to sell more tickets to our Vegas event.

9:18You have six days to buy your tickets. We're going to do this on the 15th. If you buy a ticket to the event, you will be entered into a raffle to get a one-on-one session with one of the four millionaires Matt Dion Cody or myself. Again, just to ask any and all questions. If you already bought a ticket, congratulations. Of course you are already in the raffle. I'd like to sell another 10 or 20 tickets this week. So get your tickets. I think we have 15 teenager tickets left. I think that's what we have left. So if you are bringing in your kid and you know you're coming, might as well secure those spots now to enter the raffle. That would be good. Congratulations. Congratulations for joining the school. Joseph Jazz won and James. I guess it was the J Day. Joseph Jazz won and James all J's. Again, remember Saturday you're going to have the opportunity to hear Dion talk about his rule of two. And it will help you accelerate making decisions. Looks like Iran and the U.S. are continuing to create mass destruction.

10:23Looks like Brent is now over $100. The 10-year note last I checked is at or above 480. All of these are highs and seemingly going higher. Again, today in about 20 minutes, best and it's going to announce larger U.S. Treasury buyback. Again, Wall Street expects four billion with some whisper numbers of five or more. We did get ISM numbers yesterday and there's some hidden inflation data in there. Price is paid up 2.3% in August. 9.6 points in the last six months. Again, this is kind of one of those leading indicators. In fact, traditionally, this leading indicator is about six months ahead of CPI and PCE. So need to be careful there. If the historical relationship holds and again with supply shocks like oil, I'm not sure what you can say it will. But again, if it does, CPI could be rising to 6%, 6.0% and PCE could be at 4% in the months ahead.

11:32Again, one of the last things to talk about is what if open AI blows up, you know that that is currently my best or base case open AI will not make it to IPO. But I think the government bails them out, which will be a catastrophe of all catastrophes. But one person says, who cares if open AI goes bust, Google and Microsoft will just buy their compute capacity and we will keep on trucking. Again, I don't know where this goes, but yeah, look for some exciting things in the AI space over the next 12 to 18 months. Because again, some people think it's going to kill us. Some people think it's, I mean, seriously, if something out there has a 10% chance or greater of killing all humans in the next 10 years, I think we need to go with Bernie Sanders and kill this thing. I mean, again, I don't think it's going to, but if you really believe that, what are we doing? I mean, really, this is crazy stuff.

12:33Anyway, folks, I hope you have an amazing day. That is the daily financial news. Remember, if you are a landlord that's steadily insurance is landlord only insurance. It is your job to get the best quotes at the best coverage, give them a shot. Maybe they can help. Maybe they can't. And of course, I hope to see you inside school. And don't forget to be a part of the raffle in six days to get a one on one phone call with one of the millionaires to answer all your questions. Alright folks, take care. We'll talk tomorrow later.